In den letzten Jahren ist das Interesse der Sozialwissenschaften am "Visuellen" stetig gewachsen, und es wurden in diesem Zusammenhang zahlreiche Methoden konzipiert und genutzt. Mittlerweile ist eine kritische Masse auch mit Blick auf die Reflexion der Verwendung visueller Verfahren im Rahmen je spezifischer Themenstellungen erreicht. FQS 11(2) beschäftigt sich mit Arbeiten, die aus den Sozialwissenschaften und den Visual Arts hervorgegangen sind und sich mit Migration und sozialer Abgrenzung befassen. In diesem Einleitungsbeitrag wird zunächst ein Überblick über die Schwerpunktausgabe und die ihr zugehörigen Artikel gegeben. Danach diskutieren wir, in welcher besonderen Weise visuelle Verfahren zu Forschung über Migration und soziale Abgrenzung beitragen können.
Der Beitrag behandelt die Kombination von Tagebüchern, die die Art und Weise thematisieren, wie lesbische Frauen und schwule Männer in ihrem Alltag mit ihrer Sexualität konfrontiert werden, mit Tagebuchinterviews. Rückgreifend auf eine empirische Studie wird für den Einsatz solcher Interviews plädiert, da sie ein reichhaltigeres, tieferes und kontextuelles Verständnis der Tagebücher selbst erlauben. Die Erfahrungen der Teilnehmer/innen der Studie mit dem Prozess des Tagebuchschreibens, der Gehalt der so produzierten Dokumente und "Heterosexismus" als eines der Hauptthemen der Tagebuch- und der Interviewanalysen werden reflektiert.
In: Die Natur der Gesellschaft: Verhandlungen des 33. Kongresses der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Soziologie in Kassel 2006. Teilbd. 1 u. 2, S. 1078-1094
"Kontext: Die Entwicklung der modernen Biowissenschaften lässt vormals feste Definitionen der Natur des Menschen brüchig werden. Entsprechend waren biowissenschaftliche Themen in der Vergangenheit oft Gegenstand öffentlicher Debatten. In diesen Debatten werden auch die Grenzen wissenschaftlicher Forschung neu justiert. Entsprechend versuchen unterschiedliche Akteure, darin zu Wort zu kommen und mit ihren Argumenten und Deutungen ihre Positionen zu begründen. Eines der massenmedial prominentesten bio-wissenschaftlichen Forschungsfelder war die Entschlüsselung des menschlichen Erbguts. Fragestellung: Wir haben den massenmedialen Diskurs über diese Humangenomforschung in Qualitäts-Tageszeitungen und im Internet in Deutschland, Österreich, Frankreich, den USA und England mit einer systematischen Inhaltsanalyse rekonstruiert. Dabei haben wir drei Dimensionen medialen Erfolgs unterschieden: In welchem Ausmaß gelingt es Akteuren, zu Wort zu kommen (Standing)? Welche Bewertungen der Humangenomforschung dominieren? Welche inhaltlichen Deutungsmuster werden zur Interpretation der Humangenomforschung und zur Untermauerung der Bewertungen verwendet (Framing)? Deskriptive Ergebnisse: Der Ländervergleich zeigt deutliche Gemeinsamkeiten. In allen Ländern konzentriert sich die Berichterstattung auf Ereignisse aus der Wissenschaft. Wissenschaftler, namentlich Humangenomforscher, und ihre politischen und wirtschaftlichen Unterstützer dominieren das Standing. Dementsprechend fallen auch die Bewertung des Themas und seine Deutung aus: Humangenomforschung wird eher positiv dargestellt, als wissenschaftliche Errungenschaft mit positiven medizinischen und wirtschaftlichen Effekten. Kurz: Die Verfasser finden eine länder- und medienübergreifende Hegemonie der Befürworter der Humangenomforschung. Erklärung: Sie haben über qualitative Interviews versucht, diese Hegemonie zu erklären. Dabei haben sie sich auf zwei Modelle für öffentliche Meinungsbildungsprozesse bezogen. Das Agenda Building-Modell geht davon aus, dass Medieninhalte durch das bestimmt werden, was Redaktionen von medienexternen Akteuren erhalten. Das medien-konstruktivistische Modell betrachtet die mediale Öffentlichkeit als von Journalisten konstruiertes Bild einer Realität. Sie können zeigen, dass sich die gefundene Hegemonie wohl v.a. durch die Aktivität extramedialer Akteure erklären lässt: durch die unterschiedliche Ressourcenausstattung der befragten Akteure und durch ihre unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Präferenz dafür, sich überhaupt in die Debatte einzumischen. Literaturhinweis: Gerhards, Jürgen und Schäfer, Mike Steffen (2006): Die Herstellung einer öffentlichen Hegemonie: Humangenomforschung in der deutschen und der US-amerikanischen Presse. Wiesbaden: Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften." (Autorenreferat)
'Die Verbesserung der Lebensbedingungen in Europa und die Schaffung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse in den Mitgliedsländern gehören zu den Hauptzielen der europäischen Vereinigung. Bekanntlich gibt es zwischen den EU-15-Ländern noch immer erhebliche Wohlfahrtsunterschiede (vgl. ISI 27), und mit der Erweiterung der EU ist man von gleichwertigen Lebensverhältnissen noch weiter entfernt als zuvor. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt, dass dies nicht nur materielle Aspekte der Lebenssituation betrifft, sondern beispielsweise auch Fragen der Qualität gesellschaftlicher Institutionen, des sozialen Zusammenhalts und des subjektiven Wohlbefindens der Bevölkerung. Datenbasis ist der 2002/3 durchgeführte European Social Survey und die Europäischen Wertestudie von 1999/2000.1, 2' (Autorenreferat)
In: Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Technik - Arbeit - Umwelt, Abteilung Normbildung und Umwelt, Band 98-301
"Der Beitrag stellt die derzeit geltenden Regeln für die Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung im gentechnikrechtlichen Genehmigungsverfahren in 13 EU- und 2 Nicht-EU-Staaten zusammen. Insgesamt lassen sich im europäischen Rechtsraum ganz grob folgende vier Lösungswege beobachten: (1) Eine Gruppe von Ländern, zu denen Irland, Italien und Portugal sowie unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen auch die Schweiz zu zählen sind, kennen bislang praktisch überhaupt keine Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung im gentechnikrechtlichen Genehmigungsverfahren. Insgesamt kann man hier von Modellen sprechen, die den Normbildungsprozeß fast vollständig der Fachbürokratie übertragen. (2) Eine größere Gruppe europäischer Länder kennt für die Freisetzung transgener Pflanzen ein ausschließlich schriftliches Beteiligungsverfahren, teils obligatorisch, teils fakultativ, in manchen Fällen nur unter Beteiligung der Nichtregierungsorganisationen, also ohne Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung in dem hier beschriebenen Sinne. Zu dieser Gruppe zählen Deutschland seit der Novelle 1994, Großbritannien, Frankreich, Belgien und Spanien. (3) Die dritte Gruppe, zu der Deutschland bis 1993, Österreich, Luxemburg und die Niederlande gehören, kennt die mündliche Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung im Verfahren selbst. (4) Die vierte Ländergruppe, zu der Norwegen, Schweden und Dänemark gehören, sticht vor allem durch außerordentlich weitgehende Informationsrechte der Bevölkerung hervor. Die Details dieser rechtlichen Regelungen werden im vorliegenden Bericht vergleichend dargestellt." (Autorenreferat)
XA VOL. IX. NO. 2 APRIL. 1900 ooTheO O Oettysbuf! Mercury CONTENTS. Arbor Day Hymn 35 Our Country's Safety 36 Miscellaneous Column 39 Duties of an Alumnus to His College 43 An Evening- Reverie 44 The Duties of an American Citizen 45 A Strange Apparition 47 The Healing- Influence of Time 48 Editor's Desk 49 A Science Unfriendly to Sensi-bilities 53 An Outing- 55 Chief Incentives to Higher Edu-cation 57 Destruction of Forests and Ex-tinction of Wild Eife 59 Railroads in Turkey 61 Leaving- the Nest 64 Exchanges 65 FAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. TkJ. For Fine. Printing go to CARLISLE ST. GETTYSBURG, PA. C. B. Kitzmiller Dealer in Hats, Caps, Boots and . Douglas Shoes GETTYSBURG, PA. R. M. ELLIOTT Dealer in Hats, Caps, Shoes and. Gents' Furnishing Goods Corner Center Square and Carlisle Street GETTYSBURG, PA. EDGAR 5. MARTIN, ^CIGARS AND SMOKERS' ARTICLES. t^" f^F? ^F* Chambersburg St., Gettysburg. Have you got to ■■■■ speak a piece? Well, we don't know of any kind of " effort," from the schoolboy's "recitation" or the schoolgirl's "rend- S ing," and along through the whole school and college career, down to the " response to toasts " at the last m "claee dinner," that ia not provided for among t— Commencement Parts, including "efforts" for all other occasions. (1.50. Pros and Cons. Both sides of live questions. $1.50. JBJ Playable Plays, For school and parlor. $1.50. ™ College Men's Three-Minute Declamations, $1.00. _ College Maids' Three-Minute Readings. $1.00. B Pieces for Prize-Speaking Contests. $1.00. Acme Declamation Book, Paper, 30c. Cloth, 50c. | Handy Pieces to Speak. 108 on Depurate curda. 60c. _ List of "Contents" of any or all of above free on re- ■ quest if you mention thin ad. ■ HUfDS & NOBLE, Publishers 4-5-13-14 Cooper Institute K. T. City Schoolbooks ofallpublishers at one store. .THE. GETTYSBURG MERCURY. VOI,. IX. GETTYSBURG, PA., APRIL, 1900. No. 2 ARBOR DAY HYMN. TUNB—"America." [By PROF. S. F, SMITH.] Joy for the sturdy trees, Fanned by each fragrant breeze, Lovely they stand ! The song- birds o'er them thrill; They shade each twinkling- rill ; They crown each swelling- hill; Lovely or grand. Plant them by stream and way, Plant them where children play And toilers rest. In every verdant vale, On every sunny swale— Whether to grow or fail, God knoweth best. Select the strong and fair ; Plant them with earnest care ; No toil is vain. Plant in a fitter place, Where like a lovely face, Let in some sweeter grace, Change may prove gain. God will his blessing send, All things on earth depend, His loving care Clings to each leaf and flower, Like ivy to its tower, His presence and his power Are everywhere. 36 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. OUR COUNTRY'S SAFETY—THE PUBLIC SCHOOL. IT has been said: '' The wars of the world are the mile-stones of history.'' Our country has just passed the mark of another mile, a mile which has proved a glorious epoch in her career. Battles have been fought and victories won, and our nation is the conqueror, and, at the close of the recent Spanish-Ameri-can war, our people find themselves possessed of an increase of the same feeling which has always characterized our nation. It is not the triumphant feeling which the conqueror has over his vanquished foe. It is not the exultation of a successful combat-ant. It is a deeper feeling and one which brings more real pleasure to the hearts of our people than the mere gratification of the desire for victory. It is the feeling of safety. Who can have more pleasure than the little child as he plays within sight of his parent, and knows that any attempt to harm him will surely be resented ? How well the tired soldier enjoys his sleep when he knows that trusty guards surround him. Few of us ever allow fear to detract from the pleasure of a trip on the railroad; we feel perfectly safe. likewise, how much the citizens of our great Union enjoy our prosperity when possessed of that same feeling of safety. And what is the cause of our great confidence ? Is it our strength of arms ? Russia is one of the mightiest of all nations in military and naval strength ; yet if she were deprived of her pres-ent efficient corps of ever-watchful civil officers and her complete secret service, internal strife would instantly cause her downfall. Does the cause of this feeling lie in our great numbers? No. China, the most thickly peopled country in the world, has been imposed upon for centuries, and is still being imposed upon, by countries which have much less population. Perhaps it is in our possession of large amount of territory. But Spain, our late opponent, at one time possessed of vast amounts of territory, has not been safe. It may be because of our present sound financial condition. But our financial condition has not alwa}'s been sound, and although at times our country has been plunged into great distress thereby, in no case has that feeling of security disappeared. This sense of safety which prevails in the United States to-day does not spring from external causes. It arises from an internal cause, and that is the superior mental development ofour populace, THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 37 brought about through free education. Our safety is the public school. The frequent crises through which our government has passed have taught us that no matter how perilous the circumstances, our people are equal to the occasion. They have true patriotism, which can only be inspired in those who have had some mental training. It is true that many who have not used the advantages which have been offered are, nevertheless, loyal citizens and devoted servants of their country. But the highest love of country can only be conceived by one who has enough mental training to comprehend reasonably well the workings of his own government. And when our people use—as they have been using—these oppor-tunities for free education, and by this means are able to cast their votes intelligently, we cannot help believing that the public school is our safety; for it is the votes of our common people that control our government. One of the greatest perils of any country is the ease with which the votes of the illiterate man can be influ-enced, but the educated citizen very seldom allows his opinion to be changed. It requires only a glance at modern history to see that those nations that have had the best free educational systems have the truest citizens, are most prosperous, and are possessed ofthe highest degree of safety ; that those whose intellectual standards are lowest are the ones who have had the least success in governing, have lost the most territory, and are now either in peril of downfall or in a state of entire subjection. The stability of the German and English governments is un-doubted, and their excellent schools are unrivaled. Free educa-tion is offered to all in France, Norway, Sweden, and Italy; and these governments are safe. On the other hand, the average Spaniard's lack of mental capacity is the result of the failure of his government to provide him with sufficient free schooling, and the feeble condition of the Spanish nation is only too evident. Only about three per cent, of Russia's immense population are able to read and write, and she is totally devoid of the feeling of do-mestic safety. China has no free schools. The government of Hindustan has given way to a more highly cultured conqueror. Not one out of a hundred Filipinos has ever examined the contents of a book. And the fall of the illiterate Turk is not far distant. The security of a nation is in direct proportion to the efficiency 38 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. of its public school system. And in this respect our nation stands among the highest. Our people are among the most enlightened of the world. They know how to run our government. It is not necessary that that work be left in the hands of a few intelligent despots. Our proportion of illiteracy, as compared with others, is extremely low. What a rare thing it is to find a young man now in these United States who cannot read the names on his ballot. And why is this ? It is not only because all over this land the doors of the public schools stand wide open, ready to receive him, but also many of our states have adopted laws which compel him to enter, and to spend a portion of his life in the school-room. With such a beneficial system of schools as this, it is no wonder that a feeling of safety prevails. And if we feel safe for this reason now, we have great cause to believe that our country is destined to be still more secure. Our nation is yet young. England and Germany have existed for many centuries, but we are not much more than one century old. Yet, our common school S3Tstem bids fair to rival that of either of these countries. Give us time and we shall excel both. And while we are growing in this respect, we are growing also in security. And this security shall increase, for our government recognizes the importance of increased mental training for her people, and her intention is to enlarge the facilities for obtaining it. We shall surely prosper; our foundations shall remain firm, because we have come to realize that our security does not lie in force of arms, in numbers, in possession of territory, or in a sound financial condition, but in the education of our people, and that the safety of the United States is the public school. —"NESCIO." " "Tis better far to win a heart That's loyal, kind and true, Than take a city from the foe, As mighty warriors do. For city walls are battered down— Such triumphs have an end ; But heaven and eternity Encompass friend and friend." It is better to inspire the heart with a noble sentiment than to teach a truth of science. —EDWARD BROOKS. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 39 "MISCELLANEOUS COLUMN." Scientific American, February 2nd, 2900 A. D. [Read at "Junior Special," rendered in Phrena Hall, February 2nd.] THE editorial management wishes to apologize to its readers for the lateness of the present issue and to offer in explana-tion, that the auto-feediiig-electro-hypopueumatic printing-press to-day refused to turn out over twelve thousand copies per second, and despite the most careful investigation by our best machinists the trouble was not located until late this afternoon. The perpetual motion-motor, it was finally discovered, had a cog broken out of the main epicycloidal wheel, of course lessening its working power very much. In the future we hope nothing will interfere with our usual prompt issue of the paper. A report has just been received at our office that great conster-nation is rampant at the central station of planetary communica-tion, because of the failure of the receiver of the wireless 'phone in the metropolis of our neighbor planet, Mars, to record the message sent by our Transportation Syndicate, regarding the proposed scheme of establishing a line of aerial transportation be-tween these two sister and friendly planets. The cause of the trouble in Mars cannot be imagined. It is earnestly to be hoped that their long distance receiving instrument which in delicacy, certainty, and accuracy of impres-sion is far superior even to our own, will soon be in working order again, and negotiations between these two syndicates be resumed. If an agreement can be made the line will run straight through from Mars to Chicago where the terminal will, in all probability be built, with no intermediate stations except a fifteen minute stop at the Moon for luncheon, provided the climate of that celectial orb does not prevent. VIVIFACTION PROCESS IN HISTORICAL INVESTIGA-TION. The electro-galvanicpropozone process of vivifaction for the restoration of life in deceased bodies in which decomposition has not too far progressed, one of the century's greatest inventions, is now employed by historical associations in their researches. The Boston association monopolizes this new application of the process by patent in America and is using it to great advantage on Egyptian mummies, which, in case the memory has not been too seriously impaired by prolonged inactivity, will, in answer to 4o THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. properly directed questions, give very tolerable verbal accounts of the life and times of the dim ages in which they formerly lived. Professor Sage, of this fortunate association organized for the purpose of original research, after patient efforts with the mummy of Rameses II, succeeded in bringing the renowned king of tyr-anny and persecution to consciousness, and by a rigid examination conducted in the ancient Egyptian tongue, secured many facts of the greatest historical importance. When Rameses was asked what he had been doing since he left this mundane sphere so many centuries ago, he gasped and cried out in great terror, "Xege ! Xege!" which being translated into English is "water ! water !," and falling back would have fainted, had the professor not promptly applied smelling salts to his nostrils, thus making further exami-nation possible. Conservative theologians who yet adhere to the superstition of less rational ages, viz., that there is another world where oxi-dation, chemically speaking, continues interminably, have attached a great deal of imaginary significance to his exclamations calling for water, confidently asserting that had Rameses known of the progress the world has made in invention he would have called for a Babcock fire-extinguisher. To discuss this question, however, does not lie within the province of a scientific journal. BY SPECIAL ETHERO-GRAM FROM PHILADELPHIA. ' 'The government medical board was puzzled last evening by a queer case of disease discovered among the south tenants of this city. The city physicians in special meeting determined that it was a reappearance of a malady known to earlier ages as consump-tion." This is the first case on record since the twenty-third century, when that dread disease was conquered by the celebrated medical discover}'of A. D. Ketterman, an obscure chemist, the great grandson of the renowned and eloquent preaching evangelist P. H. Ketterman, of the twentieth century. Thus is called to mind the achievements and genius of the chemist's great grandfather, who we find by reference to the encyclopaedia, converted the entire population of Gleuville, the "Babylon" of the world in that century. The destined pulpit-orator early showed religious inclinations. By reliable chroniclers it is asserted that even during his college course he would burst THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 41 forth in pious exclamations, quoting Scriptural names as if by inspiration, especially, it is said, after examinations, very much to the astonishment and edification of his companions. It will be remembered that the great preacher was the last master of the L,atin language in the world's history, whose style possessed in every respect the polish and purity of the Augustan age. Although the authorship is much disputed, it is generally believed by scholars that he wrote that celebrated epic, depicting the trials of a student on his weary pilgrimage through the muddy realms of learning. This sublime poem seems to have burst from the heart and experience of the poet-preacher. What school-boy is not familiar with the well-known couplet beginning this famous poem: " Greekibus—cramit, Flunkibus—damit!" The remainder of the poem can be found in any library of stand-ard literature. THE LATEST INVENTION. A machine christened the hypoelecto-chronogxaphic indicator for the accurate measurement of the energy and rapidity of the vibrations of the cerebal nerve-fibres, and exact determination of the algebraical formulae corresponding to the chemical reactions in nerve tissue changes during process ol thought and feeling, has recently been patented by a young inventor named McCarney. The machine is to be used in testing the qualifications of students for admission to colleges instead of entrance examinations, since it will not only more accurately indicate the capacity and attain-ments of the applicant as well as show whether he shall be a poet, orator, mathematician, or philosopher, but it will prevent cheat-ing, a practice which has been growing for many centuries. When the machine was applied to the head of the inventor, the indicator whirled around on the dial, coming to a standstill at the formula A s S. In order to test the machine as to whether it would always register with uniform accuracy, the inventor had it applied to his head several times but every time the pointer turned round with marvelous promptness and rapidity to the above mentioned formula, obstinately refusing to move the thousandth part of an inch, no difference to what part of the inventor's head the instrument was applied. The inventor is a lineal descendent of the famous Irish orator McCarney, a school fellow of the evangelist Ketterman at the 42 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. National University, known in his day as Gettysburg College, and possesses all the mental characteristics of his illustrious progenitor. MUSICAL COMPOSITION UNEARTHED. A musical composition of the first order has been discovered in an old cannon, unearthed on the ancient battle-field of Gettys-burg, which is causing much discussion as to its authorship in music circles. The name is somewhat obscured and although the first three letters Moz— are distinctly legible it cannot be deter-mined whether the remaining letters are —art or —er. The fact that it was found on the scene of the latter's early training and the high quality of the production incline us to the belief that it is the work of the later and more brilliant genius. ADVERTISEMENTS. All aerial machinery, flying machines, storm preventers, cyclone traps, rain producers, etc., etc., repaired promptly and to order. Terms moderate. Work satisfactory. Respectfully soliciting your patronage, ALUMINUM FOUNDRY CO., Pittsburg, Pa. RELICS FOR SALE. Bicycles, automobiles, phonographs and many other quaint and curious remains of the dark ages. ARCHAEOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION AND SYNDICATE, Boston, Mass. TO STUDENTS I ! ! Auto-Greek and Latin-translator; easiby concealed in vest pocket; runs two hours with one winding and will meet the requirements of any ordinary examination. Price $2.00. Satis-faction guaranteed. Also LATE SPECIALTY ! Auto-essay-writer ; easy to manipulate ; will write any thing but poetry and love letters. Correspondence strictly confidential. Price $2.00. For sixty days we will mail in plain package both the auto-Greek and Latin translator and the auto-essay writer to any address for $3.00. HINDS & NOBLE, (Incorporated 1887,) New York City. {In answering advertisements kindly mention the "Scientific American." mm THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. DUTIES OF AN ALUMNUS TO HIS COLLEGE. HEINTZELMAN, '01. 43 MORE and more are educational institutions beginning to see the importance of keeping in close touch with their alumni, and recognizing the fact that their success and growth depend upon these former students. The world judges the worth of a college by the sort of men it turns out. Athletics may and do advertise a college, but a long list of able and honorable alumni gives standing to any institution and commands for it the respect of all men. This assertion needs no other proof than that afforded by the older universities of our country. Their lasting glory is not in football and baseball teams but in the long line of illustrious sons to whom they point with just pride. To particularize, we would state, so must it be with our own Gettysburg. When the glory of the athletic field long since shall have faded, the world will look to the men who delight to call her Alma Mater, and in them see the true worth of Gettysburg. We cherish the memory of those who have gone before us from these walls, and rejoice that there are those who are to-day reflect-ing honor upon our college. Thus we see to what a great extent the prosperity of a college depends upon its alumni; and, as this is the case, certainly every alumnus should regard it as his bounden duty to do all in his power to uphold the honor and dig-nity of his Alma Mater. Often do we hear of colleges complaining of a lack of interest, as manifested on the part of the alumni in showing their utter dis-regard and unconcern for all college affairs. The all-absorbing and important question is, " How the alumni may best be made to retain his interest for his Alma Mater." The alumnus, if left entirely to himself is apt to forget the color of the desires, purposes and ambitions of his college days ; and as he becomes more engrossed in the details of business or the anxieties of professional life, to denominate as boyish and foolish the very things which made up the best part of his college life. But if he were put there again, under like conditions, he would be as enthusiastic as the best of the modern students. On the other hand, the undergraduate often fails to appreciate properly the attitude which the great majority of alumni are forced to assume after they have been out a few yearsi Affairs of \ V 44 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. profession, business, church, society, and home create their sev-eral diverging interests among alumni and make demands on their time which cannot be evaded ; so that it is only here and there one is found who can control his engagements, money and time to allow anything more than occasional indulgences in the revival of the old college associations. While the warmest recollections may remain, and the most devoted regard for the college may still be found, yet these things make him seem a very indifferent al-umnus in the eyes of the undergraduate. In no other way is the interest of alumni more revived than in the alumni associations. Where alumni are numerous a small per cent, can be depended upon to form a body large enough to support monthly, bi-monthly or quarterly reunions. The duties of an alumnus to his fostering mother are not com-pulsory, but must be prompted by a spirit of love for the institu-tion that did so much for him. In times of distress and need he should come to her. assistance as he would to his natural mother. Thus we see the duties of an alumnus to his college are many and varied—all converging to this general principle, " to do all in his power to uphold the honor and dignity of his Alma Mater, and thereby continually keep pushing her to the front rank among the best educational institutions of the country." AN EVENING REVERIE. As I sit by the open window, When the toil of day is done, And gaze on the far off hillsides Enclosing the setting sun ; O'er me creeps a lonely feeling, But contentment fills my breast As I see the day declining And the approaching hour of rest. My thoughts are my sole companions, What happy thoughts are they ; For in my mind I see my friends, So near, yet far away. Oh ! what a happy moment, When sorrow flees away, And sadness has no place, In the closing hours of day. —" LAH.," '01. wm ■n I THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THE DUTIES OP AN AMERICAN CITIZEN. E. C. RUBY, '02. 45 WE often hear people expatiating about the glorious rights and privileges of the American citizen, especially those rights and privileges to which he is entitled under our form of government. With respect to these the American citizen may well be proud ; for he holds within his grasp powers for which citizens of other countries have long been contending. The citizens of every country have moral, social, and political rights. The American citizen differs from all other citizens in his political rights. This is due to the kind of government under which he lives. In America the citizen is guaranteed the right to worship God as he will; the right to assemble when and where he will ; freedom of speech, press, and petitions ; the right to keep and bear arms. Nor is this all. His house is preserved in-violate from search and seizure, and everywhere in all his rela-tions the shield of the law is thrown over his person and possessions. But the American citizen has likewise duties corresponding to his inestimable rights and privileges. Only in proportion as he recognizes and performs the duties devolving upon him are his rights and privileges of value to him. The citizen has his own destiny to work out consistent with the moral order of the world. All he can realize is made possible to him by his own nature, and he is responsible for the exercise of his own powers. Every American citizen has duties which pertain to the nation, the state, and whatever political division of the state he may choose as his residence. The duties toward the nation are true of all its citizens ; the duties toward the state are true strictly of the people who comprise that state ; so with regard to the smaller political divisions of the state. As the nation is the power that alone realizes the ends and purposes of government, it is by understand-ing the nation that the rights and dicties of American citizenship are learned. Foremost among the duties of the American citizen is patriot-ism— unselfish devotion to his country. If Americans will but catch the fire of patriotic zeal for their own country, there is room enough in history for the future generations to refer to their lives and their services as memories to be linked with those of Wash-ington and Franklin and Hamilton, of Lincoln and Grant and Garrison. Even at this present time the American citizen has an 46 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. excellent opportunity to show his patriotism by refusing to give encouragement or to lend aid and support to our enemy in the Philippine Islands. It is to be regretted that the American citizen sometimes loses sight of the true meaning of patriotism. It would be well for that one to put on his glasses and carefully study the following words from Henry Clay : " The high, the exalted, the sublime emotions of a patriotism which, soaring toward Heaven, rises far above all mean, low, or selfish things, and is absorbed by one soul-transporting thought of the good and glory of one's country, are never felt in the bosom of him who with-draws from his on account of his pride, vanity and egotism, and cannot see beyond the little, petty, contemptible circle of his own personal interests. That patriotism which, catching its inspira-tion from on high, and leaving at an immeasureable distance be-low all lesser, groveling, personal interests and feelings, animates and prompts to deeds of self-sacrifice, of valor, of devotion, and of death itself, is the noblest, the sublimest of all public virtues." Another very important duty of the American citizen is obedi-ence to the laws. Sometimes a law may seem to the individual cit-izen unnecessary or trivial, or may prove inconvenient. Never-theless, no one has any right to put his personal preference or con-venience before the laws which serve the public good. The government which guarantees to its subjects rights and privileges must be dependent upon another duty of the citizen— the payment of the taxes levied for the necessary expenses in main-taining that government. It would plainly be unfair that citizens should enjoy the benefits of a government without making any return. To vote may be considered as a right or a privilege. But it is also a duty, and one which ought to require as much faithfulness on the part of the citizen as that of obeying the laws, or of pay-ing the taxes. The duty of the right use of the elective franchise still needs to be learned by many American citizens. This is a duty which is required of every American citizen at some time or other. Finally, it is the duty of every American citizen to know his rights and to perform his duties ; to understand the privileges of his own government; to carry out its humane principles ; and to eradicate, by lawful means, all influences injurious to the peace and welfare of his native land. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 47 A STRANGE APPARITION. CLARENCE MOORE, '02. A TERRIBLE night it was. The rain which had fallen in-cessantly for twelve hours had about ceased, but the wind had risen, and was blowing a perfect gale, causing sign-boards to creak and shutters to rattle. The streets of Gettysburg were deserted. Not even was a dog found wandering around on such a dismal night. The clock in the tower of the old court house had just struck the hour of midnight, when a man stepped out of the Eagle Hotel and started towards the Square, leaving behind a group of jolly friends. Turning up the collar of his great coat, and pulling his hat down over his eyes, to shield himself from the gale, he hurried along the deserted streets, eager to reach his home, just south of town. Sorry, indeed, did he feel for having ventured forth on such a night as this. Once, before he reached the top of Balti-more Hill, he had almost resolved to turn back, but thoughts for the one who he knew was anxiously awaiting his return drove away his fear, and he hastened on. As he passed the gates of the National Cemetery he thought that he saw some object moving ahead of him, but the arc light in front of the gate kept swinging violently in the gale, and he could discern little of the appearance of the object. A sudden fear came over the mind of the traveler, and he wished himself at home. Mustering sufficient courage to make a full investigation, he slowly moved towards this object of interest, and discovered that which made him shiver from fright, for the object before him was that of a large, broad-shouldered man, dressed in mili-tary attire, crouching beneath the branches of the overhanging pine trees, to shield himself from the terrible tempest. Seeing no means of avoiding an encounter, our midnight traveler cautiously approached the stranger, and in a voice that portrayed his feeling, thus addressed him : '' Who are you that dares to cross my path on such a night as this?" The tall figure straightened to his full height, and in tones commanding, but gentle, made reply : " Don't you know me ?" "No." " I am General Hancock." 48 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. '' You General Hancock ? What are you doing here ? Why are you not over there on your horse where you belong ?" The figure advanced a few steps and thus spoke : " When The Smith Granite Co. erected yonder monument to my memory some few years ago, they did their work well, but about two years ago a flash of lightning struck the monument, shattering the base and rendering it unsubstantial. In every storm my position is perilous, yet, through all this time, I have never offered to leave my seat. To-night, however, the shaking was more than I could endure. I have always tried to be a fear-less man, but to-night the thoughts of being tossed over by the raging winds, and hurled down over yonder hill, were more than I could endure, so I have left my steed to seek shelter beneath these lofty pines." " My dear General," exclaimed the belated traveler, in a ner-vous manner, " I have just come from the Eagle Hotel, and whom did I see there but Col. John P. Nicholson, Chairman of the Battlefield Commission. He'll give you both thunder and lightning if he catches you off your horse." At this reply the General, without another word, sprang across the road, leaped the high iron fence with a single bound, and hastily remounted the steed which he had left only a short time before. Though storms have since swept over Cemetery Hill, never again has the General offered to leave his seat. This weird tale may seem incredible to you, dear reader, and far be it from us not to offer an explanation of the whole affair. Our friend who beheld this scene had evidently tarried long at the wine, which caused his imagination to become aroused and his vision obscured. THE MEALING INFLUENCE Of TIME. C M. A. STINE, '01. AS we stand in the light of the present and look down the long vistas of history we see, here, the ruined city, the overthrown statue, the ravaged temple and the countless tiny hillocks which are graves ; there prosperity smiled upon a nation, and all was beautiful and peaceful; yet while we look, the broken columns vanish amid the grasses, the tall pillars of the empty temple become the tale of the mighty, empty vastness THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 49 which we call the past; the graves have vanished into the bosom of the earth, and the happy and the sad become alike in the dim, mellowing light. The shadowy, silent aisles of time present no glaring contrasts. Time, the destroyer, is also Time, the healer. There have been great revolutions, terrible massacres, convulsions of nature which have wiped out cities, but they are forgotten utterly or, if not yet forgotten, are spoken of without the emotions of bitter passion that they once held. The terrible suffering has long since passed from the recollection of men. How much emotion is ex-cited to-day by the narration of the lives and property destroyed, or the suffering entailed by the wars of a Rameses, an Alexander of Macedon, or a Napoleon ? Or take, for example, two more recent events in our own country. How much of the bitter hos-tility of the war of the rebellion still remains? Even the South-erners themselves have in many cases utterly changed their views. No one is ignorant of the destruction of the Maine. Only one short year has passed and yet we no longer feel the shock of sor-row and indignation which the mention of this event at first ex-cited in our breasts. Time changes our opinions, even as it soothes regrets. What once, we may have regarded as an unmitigated evil we can to-day look upon rather as a blessing. It is sure that the monastic system of the middle ages was regarded as a great evil, yet it is also true that it was the monks who kept alight the feeble spark of learning, preserving the priceless treasures of the literature of the past to us. Consider our own Washington. How men clamored for action, for a general who would do something, that winter at Valley Forge ! He had few admirers then. Yet how men have changed their opinions ! Listen to the sentiments of Lincoln. He said : "To add brightness to the sun, or glory to the name of Washington, is alike impossible. Let none attempt it. In solemn awe pronounce the name, and in its naked, death-less splendor leave it shining on." Of this changing of our opinions the civil war affords an excellent example. As we have already said, the change has been so great as to be almost incon-ceivable. Having seen that time certainly does exert so beneficient an influence, we naturally inquire for the causes. Let us first con-sider new associations. As we hasten on, busy with our life 50 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. work, we constantly come into new associations. People think differently, and we are influenced by their views. Our own views are broadened and we look at an event from many standpoints, whereas heretofore we may have regarded it only on the light of our own selfish interests. Thus our views are modified and changed, and what we heretofore have regarded as an evil may now appear to us as a great good. Again ; a higher system of education, as our store of learning grows with the centuries, makes itself felt. It, too, broadens us and widens our field of vision, and, in the case of individual sor-row especially, it furnishes us other matters with which to occupy our minds, and other thoughts to take the place of a great sorrow. As a third cause let us consider one of the facts which we know to be true of the human mind. We are so constituted that we have the power to forget. It is a psychological truth that parox)'sms of grief or of joy will return each time with less force and with less frequency. Gradually we are able to forget even our greatest losses, our most poignant sorrows. Whether we will it or no, such is the case. Longfellow says: "Time has laid his hand upon my heart, gently, not smiting it, but as a harper lays his open palm upon his harp, to deaden its vibrations." So it is that Time deals with mortals, smoothing our cares and helping us to live on. It furnishes us new interests, new employments and causes us to forget our losses and disappoint-ments. As with the marble statue, at first its lines are sharp and clean cut, and the draperies stand in rigid folds, but gradually the lines soften, the draperies flow in gentler curves and the figure is doubly beautiful. We are not then heartless creatures that we do not grieve forever over the ruin of the past. It is rather one of the wisest provisions of an all-seeing Father that the present should crowd out the past, and that our griefs should be lulled and our mistakes corrected by the hand of Time. Imagine for a moment a dreary world, without a smile, where only there is mourning, and grief that cannot be forgotten. If it were not for this healing influence of time it is certain that the world would be uninhabitable; life could not be endured. Truly, "A wonderful stream is the River Time, As it runs through the realms of tears, With a faultless rhythm, and a musical rhyme, And a broader sweep, and a surge sublime, As it blends with the ocean of years." mm .THE. GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Entered at the Postoffice at Gettysburg as second-class matter. VOL. IX. GETTYSBURG, PA., APRIL, 1900. No. 2 Editor-in- Chief, ' S. A. VAN ORMBR, '01. Assistant Editors, W. H. HETRICK, W. A. KOHl.KK. Easiness Manager, H. C. HOFFMAN. Alumni Editor, REV. F. D. GARLAND. Assistant Business Manager, "WILLIAM C. NEY. Advisory Board, PROF. J. A. HIMES, LIT. D. PROF. G. D. STAHLEY, M. D. PROF. J. W. RICHARD. D. D. Published monthly by the students of Pennsj-lvania (Gettysburg1) College. Subscription price, Oue Dollar a year in advance; single copies Ten Cents. Notice to discontinue sending- the MERCURY to any address must be accompanied by all arrearages. Students, Professors, and Alumni are cordially invited to contribute. All subscriptions and business matter should be addressed to the Business Manager. Articles for publication should be addressed to the Editor. Address THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY, GETTYSBURG, PA. EDITOR'S DESK. THE Y. M. C. A. is heartily to be congratulated on the suc-cess and high quality of the entertainments presented under its auspices, this year, in Brua Chapel. The audiences were large, considering the unfortunate inclemency of the weather on two different evenings, and likewise, were always apprecia-tive, as manifested not only by repeated encores during the per-formances, but as well by the high terms of praise with which all who attended expressed their opinions regarding them afterward. Mr. Kellogg's entertainment, entitled " The Grand Bird Car-nival," was first on the list. Exhibiting by the aid of a stereop-ticon the birds in their natural haunts and environments, Mr. Kellogg produced, with the appearance of each bird upon the screen, its peculiar song and call by means of the art, or rather gift, of warbling, which he has cultivated with the most gratify-ing success. I 52 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. He was accompanied and assisted by Miss Octoria Stuart, a vocal soloist, and Mr. Gouhler, a pianist, both of whom were well received. The entertainment was highly interesting and in-structive. Elias Day, characterist, furnished the second evening of en-joyment. Mr. Day is graceful in delivery, unctious in humor, unique in personality, and, above all, a born entertainer, possessed of that versatility and originality necessary to sustain unaided the unbroken enthusiasm of an audience throughout an entire even-ing. The Patricolo Grand Concert Co. was in every particular highly satisfactory, giving us a musical treat such as only the best in talent and most proficient in art could furnish ; but it was by no means scandalized by being associated in the same series with The Franz Wilczek Concert Co., which fully, if not more than fully, satisfied the expectations created by the former. The next and last number will be a lecture. The committee expects to procure a speaker of acknowledged ability and wide repute ; and thus to complete a course of entertainments, which will not only reflect most favorably upon the association and com-mittee in its service, but will recommend similar courses in the future to the patronage of college and town. IN accordance with custom, and in compliance with law, Gov-ernor Stone recently designated and proclaimed Friday, April 6th, and Friday, April 20th, to be observed as Arbor Days throughout the State. Since 1885 days have been set apart annually by Governor's proclamation for the planting of trees and shrubbery; and in compliance therewith thousands of trees are planted annually. Public roads are being shaded, school grounds and college campuses are being beautified, and waste lands are being made to serve a purpose. The tree beautiful and symmetrical, the tree growing and ex-panding, the tree comforting and cheering, and finally, the tree towering aloft and wrestling with the storms, is emblematic of a true college class. Would not the planting of trees by the several classes have a tendency to unite more closely the several mem-bers to one another and to Alma Mater ? Perhaps in future years THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 53 class reunions may be held beneath the shade of trees planted in college days. " A tree is a nobler object than a prince in his coronation robes." So FAR we have had an abundance of material for publication, but stories and poems are lacking. We need stories and poems, and we believe that there are those in college who can produce these, if they but try. It is desired that students write articles, solid and humorous, and verse, specially ior publication. A few articles have been mailed to us, unsigned; these do not appear. The editors should know the authors of all articles, whether or not the name is to appear in print. IS SCIENCE UNf RIENDLY TO SENSIBILITIES ? HOPE DILL, 01. SCIENCE and humanity go hand in hand for the reason that science is in itself human. In studying the lives of scientists it has been my rare fortune to find none of whom the kindly and affectionate nature has not been spoken of as a general characteristic. And although humanity is said to be a natural and innate quality, that scien-tists all have been born human, would seem unlikely, indeed. It seems preferable to lay the blame on their careful and culti-vated study of the sciences, in which they see so distinctly the value of humanity. A great many facts illustrative of this could be related of the different scientists, such as Darwin's giving up his favorite pastime, shooting, as a sport which inflicted too great pain. Such illustrations could be multiplied, and would be very interesting, if space would permit their being brought in here. There is a story told by Mr. Dana in one of his lectures on "Coral Islands," which brings us a true idea of his nature. I shall give it in his own words : "During my rambles over the island I came across a noble bird, as white as snow and nearly as large as an albatross. In 54 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY my zeal for science I began to contemplate it as a fine specimen —indeed, a magnificent specimen—and although it was not in my line of research, it seemed a failure of duty to neglect the oppor-tunity to secure it. By a scientific process the work of death is easily accomplished. I went up to him ; he stood still, not offer-ing to fly. I commenced to carry out my plan—a slight point of blood soiled the white plumage, and my zeal gave out. It was another's duty to play the executioner, not mine; and after strok-ing down his feathers and wishing him well, I walked away. But as I glanced back from time to time there was that bird still looking at me in mute appeal, and I see him yet as on that day." The more animals become the object of scientific study the better; for the scientific spirit is essentially a spirit of benevolence and mercy, and a minister of good toward the lower world. It is by scientists that measures have been taken to secure merciful treatment for animals in their transportation, and for the prevention of various forms of cruelty and neglect, which animals have suffered at the hands of man. The question of vivisection is a much-disputed one as to its value; of course, the practice of vivisection is liable to abuse in indifferent hands; but the feeling of the scientific world in gen-eral is strongly opposed to needless infliction of suffering on lower animals. The diseases which afflict man and the animal world can only be known through these means. But after a time the need of vivisection will pass away, and the truths which it has established and taught will form a body of knowledge available for the pre-vention of suffering to animals, and also to the human race. It's the humanity in man which prompts him to risk his own life to prevent suffering among his fellow-men. We all have read of the late scientist who, in investigating the Bubonic plague, ex-perimented on himself for the good of science and to relieve the suffering among others. The wonderful treatment in similar dis-eases, what were formerly deadly, is due to scientific discover)^, and many of the scientists, imagining this knowledge, have lost their own lives. So let us think well if we are going to interfere in any way with scientific investigation, and let us endeavor to entertain correct views toward the lower animals, which in certain ways are even superior to ourselves. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 55 AN OUTING. ONE OF THE "CROWD." IT was iii the month of August in the summer of ninety-nine that " the crowd," as we termed ourselves, assembled to talk over the proposed camping party. We had talked over the same thing every year as the season came 'round, and, so far, it had not been realized. This time we were determined to make our actions suit to our words ; and, as each girl declared she would go if she were the only one to go, the way looked very clear, for us to spend a part of our vacation under the airy (?) roofs of tents. After much discussion and many suggestions from all, it was arranged that we should take extra blankets, jackets, lanterns, frying-pans, hammocks and bakers, for it was said, " afterweget there we will need loads of things which we haven't along." When "the crowd" separated that evening it was with the thought that on the morrow we would go to spend a short time healthfully and happily beneath the shelter of the leafy boughs by the side of the beautiful Dunning's Creek. On that memorable day, on which we started to the camping grounds, the sun came up in all his glory, much to the delight of us all, for we were trembling with fear, lest we should be delayed a few hours on account of rain. Part of the crowd went ahead with the tents and cooking apparatus, while the others of us were transported thither on the most comfortable (?) kind of conveyance—a hay wagon. We all wore hats that were broad in the brim, And in them I'm sure we looked very prim ; If you could have seen us that very day, That's what you would have had to say. It was certainly a jolly crowd, and must have been a very en-viable sight for the ones who were to remain at home. When we arrived at our destination, the tents were already go-ing up, and it seemed to us very much like " gypsying." Many were heard to exclaim, "Oh! girls, isn't this jolly ? " "It'sperfect-ly delightful ! " etc., but alas ! night changed our feelings some-what. As some of the girls were given to talking and laughing, rather than to sleeping and dreaming, until the wee sma' hours, we did not get a large amount of sleep. Just as we fell asleep we were awakened by a most terrific peal of thunder. The rain 56 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. came down in torrents, and the lightning was something awful. It was one of the worst storms we had ever witnessed ; and our first night in camp, too ! We felt the chill creeping into our bones and the edges of our pillows getting wet. We were very glad then to reach down and pull over us the heavy comforters which we thought were a burden to us. To make things worse, the boys had forgotten to dig a trench around the tent. That night as they silently performed their duty they looked, from the inside of the tent, like so many brownies hard at work, trying to finish before the break of dawn. Towards morning we fell asleep, and when we next awoke we heard sighs and groans from all parts of the tent; the following expressions were oft repeated : " Oh, girls, it's raining yet! " and "oh, girls, what shall we do? " In the absence of a cook the girls, all excellent cooks (as all girls are), took turns at the cooking. The cooks of the morning assured us breakfast and sunshine at eight o'clock, and, true to their prophecy, we had an excellent meal and glorious sunshine. During the week we spent our time fishing, boating, bathing, cooking, eating, drinking and reading. One of the most delightful things was the camp-fire at night, and the roasted corn and potatoes. Have you ever heard of setting eel-bobs for roasting ears ? Well, we sawsome boys who did it—and they caught thecorn, too. We had a delightful trip into " Italy "; it is not every camp-ing party that can take a trip into that beautiful country—and on a hand car, too. If you have ever had the pleasure of riding on a hand car, you can have some idea of what pleasure we had on that trip. After visiting many old ruins and taking souvenirs from them, we returned to our '' old camp grounds '' for the night. We were much pleased with the fine scenery, and much invigorated by the delightful breezes from the mountains. We spent Sabbath at camp. As we nearly all belong to the Christian Endeavor Society, we held a very delightful and inter-esting meeting on Sabbath evening on the grounds. We all thoroughly enjoyed our outing, and are all anxious to go camping again as soon as the season comes around; but when we returned to our homes we were fully able to appreciate what a sweet place is home, and what good things we have there. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 57 CHIEF INCENTIVES TO HIGHER EDUCATION. J. R. STONKK, '01. THE great elements in human nature that tend to incite to higher education are intense love of knowledge and the desire to see human nature brought into a closer relation with the Divine Nature by the holy influences of pure and rightly directed knowledge. These are the highest and truest incentives. All other worthy incentives, directly or indirectly, owe their origin to these. There are incentives cherished by some who are of a narrow and somewhat ungenerous nature, which stimulate an ambition to pursue a course of higher education in order to enter the sphere of high intellectuality merely for selfish ends and not for the noble purpose of using the power acquired through careful intellectual discipline to give to the world some new and elevating ideas along the line of enlightenment, and to bring it into more perfect har-mony with the plans of its creator. Incentives like these, tending to selfish ends and embodied in narrow concepts of what is true greatness, are cast into the deep shadow of contempt when contrasted with the truer and higher incentives with their glorious terminations in careers that have risen to the zenith of the intellectual sphere, illuminated the realms of learning and left their records in letters of fire, eternally upon the pages of history. Thus in order that men may be stimulated to take a course of higher education, in a true sense, a state of intense longing of the soul to drink deep of the fountain of knowledge must exist. If it does not exist as a psychical condition it may be culti-vated by a rightly-chosen course of reading, in which the indi-vidual is brought face to face with the greatest and most noble-minded authors; authors who .instill into the minds of their readers their own high ideals and lofty ambitions. The love of knowledge comes with reading and grows upon it. The influence of books upon man is remarkable ; they make the man. The young man who reads of deeds of manliness, of bravery, and of noble daring feels the spirit of emulation growing within him, and the seed is planted which will bring forth fruit in heroic endeaver and exalted life. Carlyle saw the influence of books many years ago, when he I 58 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. said : "Of all the priesthoods, aristocracies—governing classes at present extant in the world—there is no class comparable for importance to the priesthood of th» writers of books." Books are the soul of actions, the only audible, articulate voice of the accomplished deeds of the past. The men of an-tiquity are dead; their fleets and armies have disappeared ; their cities are ruins ; their temples are dust; yet all these exist in magic preservation in the books they have bequeathed us, and their manners and their deeds are as familiar to us as the events of yesterday. " A reading people will soon become a thinking people, and a thinking people must soon become a great people." As the mind is thus, by reflective reading, introduced into the sphere of philosophy and filled with an insatiable desire for ever increasing knowledge, it is destined to rise above the common modes of life, and to seek a course of thorough training in the higher institu-tions of learning in order that it may be more fully equipped for the vocation of life, whether it be along the line of philosophic or scientific investigation or of philanthropical work. The love of knowledge is not only the highest and truest in-centive to higher education and the principle that stimulates man to spend his energy in trying to bring his fellowmen into a higher sphere of morality and culture, but when created and fostered in the young mind, it is almost a warrant against the inferior excite-ment of passions and vices. It will cultivate a refined taste for all that is best and noblest in literature, and the culture of all that is purest and noblest brings scorn upon whatsoever is low, coarse and vulgar. Ivet the love of knowledge be created early within the soul of man, and let the principle be cherished throughout all stages of life ; and human nature will soon reach a stage of more perfect harmony with the Divine Nature, whose attributes are infinite knowledge and wisdom. "What a superb face," said a Boston girl as she stood before a marble head of Minerva. "Yes," said another, "what a nose for spectacles." THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 59 DESTRUCTION Of FORESTS AND EXTINCTION OF WILD LIFE. WILLIAM FBEAS, '01. THIS is a subject which has agitated many minds for many years, and one well worthy of study. The forest problem is one that must soon be considered, whether we will or not, because forests all over the country are rapidly disappearing. For the proper treatment of this subject, a retrospective view is necessary. When the Pilgrims came to America they found the Atlantic coast covered with a large belt of forests, mostly pine. They cleared small places for their settlements and for agriculture. It was with almost indescribable toil that this was accomplished. The forests seemed to spring up as soon as they were cut down. But our forefathers succeeded in preparing a great portion of land for agricultural purposes, as their number steadily increased. Gradually the drift of population was westward, and the country beyond the Alleghenies was opened up. It was a trackless wil-derness, inhabited by hostile Indians and wild beasts. The population of America has been steadily increasing, and with it the demand for lumber, which our forest supplies. The Atlantic coast has been made almost destitute of forests by the lumbermen making inroads into them. First, the New England States, then New York, then Pennsylvania were de-spoiled of their covering of forests, which at one time were thought inexhaustible. The Southern States have a forest sup-ply which is likely to last for some years yet, but those bordering the great lakes are rapidly losing their trees. It might be well to touch upon the uses and benefits of our forests. There is an old saying that " The tree is father to the rain," but with greater truth it might be said, "The rain is father of the tree." For the forests do not produce the rain, but the rain the forests, and without a certain amount of rain they can-not exist. We can easily see that where the rainfall is copious, and evenly distributed, forests thrive very well; and where it is light, and unevenly distributed, they cannot thrive at all. In California there are immense tracts of timber land, and in fact, west of the Alleghenies there are vast forests, which, under proper care, will produce lumber for an indefinite length of time; but if these be removed, or treated with negligence, the laud will soon be destitute. 6o THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. There are two great evils which threaten the life of the Ameri-can forest. The first is the forest fire, which is allowed unchecked to ravage large forests, and in a day destroy the work of perhaps five hundred years. This is either through negligence on the part of lumbermen, or pure wantonness of some vandal spirit. After the Winter cutting, the loose limbs become as dry as tin-der, and serve as an excellent field for such a fire. The fire de-stroys not only the young seedling, but the tree ready for the axe, and so affects the ground that it takes generations of enriching the soil to give suitable ground for a forest. The second evil is the cattle allowed to browse in the forests in most localities where they abound. They eat up every green thing, and thus only the old trees remain in a forest, the cutting of which at once means the extinction of the forest. The forests are mostly owned by private individuals, and thus the General Government could do nothing, but the State govern-ment should pass fencing laws and also laws in regard to forest fires, to inflict the severest punishment upon the one or ones starting them. They could easily be apprehended, since public sentiment would not shield those who do it, as it endangers their own life and property. Private owners might claim that it would not pay them to spend their money now, that their successors be richer, and there is truth in this. The forests are of benefit in restraining the mountain torrent, in preventing mountain springs from drying up, and in keeping the moisture in the ground for a length of time. So, if the forests are destroyed, perhaps large tracts of land watered by rivers having their sources in the moun-tain regions may be made barren and unproductive. The rail-road has had something to do in destroying forests, by cutting them in two, as it were, and perhaps sometimes in starting fires. The Government and the railroads should combine in the protec-tion of the forest. There has been a scheme considered by the "powers that be" to buy up waste land, and plant forests on it. They can plant them, but they cannot make them grow. The soil for anything of this kind must be sufficiently enriched. So we may arrive at the conclusion that if the destruction of the forests is to cease, something must soon be done to prevent the destruction of the seedling. There is another subject right in line with this, and also of THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 61 great importance, namely, the extinction of wild life. At one time the forests and prairies were full of game, which has grad-ually disappeared as civilization has advanced. Recently game laws have been passed which, to a large degree, protect the wild life of our country during certain periods of the year. The Ameri-can bison has almost entirely disappeared from our plains, being driven off by the Indian, white man, prairie fire, and railroad. Indeed, the railroad has as much as anything else to do with the gradual but sure extinction of wild life. Another example which should be mentioned is the birds which used to frequent our wooded lands, and especially forests on marshy ground. Many an object lesson we might gain from them, and profit by having learned them. Laws have been passed which, to a certain extent, protect them, and already there can be noted a cessation of their rapid removal. The destruction of our forests and the extinction of wild life must soon cease on account of public sentiment. RAILROADS IN TURKEY. ARDASHES H. MERDINYAN,'01, KONIA (ANCIENT ICONIUM). THERE is not any country which is more distinguished in her opposition to improvements than Turkey. It is well said, that the Turk does not understand progress, and like a dog in the manger, he has hitherto neither developed his realm himself nor allowed others to do it for him. The country comprises the most magnificent spot upon this great sphere, and stands forth as the most beautiful relic of the past centuries. Her civil and geo-graphical history have undergone many changes ; yet she kept herself far back in civilization and progress. As her usurpers were the haters of progress and reformation, it is not strange to see her destitute of many tokens of civiliza-tion; one of which may be considered railroads. They are the means by which a country enters into closer intercourse with na-tions, and people rise to a higher standard in ever}' phase. But Turkey has been one of the slowest countries in this respect, and she is even more fanatical than China in her opposition to im-provements. The Sultan has thrown every possible obstacle in the way of the opportunities for improvements which presented I 62 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. themselves by many foreign capitalists; so that old fashioned traveling prevails in the country even at the present time. There are not very many trains to abolish that old fashioned traveling, which is, indeed, subject to many hardships and dangers. Ten or fifteen years back the railroad systems were introduced into the country, but not fully yet. At the present time there are over i,800 miles of lines built by Europeans. During the last few years there has been great enthusiasm to establish railroads by European capitalists in different sections of those most important and historic cities, and some have been able to obtain the royal concession of the Sultan. Eately the Euphrates Valley railroad, which was for a longtime discussed, seems to be completed, run-ning from Constantinople to the Persian Gulf, giving a new and eas}r route to the far East. In 1878 English capitalists tried to get a franchise for their road, but they were refused. Then Russia tried to cut off British ambitions by getting the privilege herself; but the Sultan fearing to displease England said no. In 1888 the German Bank of Ber-lin and allied syndicates secured a concession from Turkey, and a railroad was built from Constantinople to Angora, and later— in 1897—to Konia (ancient Iconium). The precise arrangement with the Sultan was that after a time he was to buy back the rail-road, but as the Turkish treasury never has a surplus, the day of redemption has been put off and put off until the road is perma-nently in German hands. Now the same German capitalists, with some British interests in sympathy, have secured another conces-sion whereby they are permitted to extend their line to Bagdad, and thence to Bassorah, at the head of the Persian Gulf. This railroad is to be extended from Konia terminus on through the pass of the Taurus mountains to Aleppo, thence direct to the Euphrates ; down that great valley to Bagdad (about i,ooomiles from Konia), and finally to Bassorah, about 400 miles further. This route will lead through lands illustrious with early traditions. The moun-tains, too, are rich in minerals ; and the building of railroads will surely open up many sources of wealth. The rich mountains of Asia. Minor will open up their treasury for humanity, which, under Turkish power, had been out of existence. There are now rail connections from western Europe to the Bosporus. You can go from Paris to Constantinople on the Oriental express without change of cars. Thence the Anatolian railroad will now set you THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 63 down at Konia—nearly 400 miles to the east—and the extension will leave you at Bassorah, 1,400 miles farther. By this route, when it is in operation, the journey from London to Bombay will probably take 12 days. Russia put in her application for permission to construct a line of railroad from Karo in Trans Caucasus, a strong Eussian fort-ress, to Ergerum in Armenia, a Turkish stronghold. Russia's policy is to push this line on west until it connects with the Ana-tolian road at Angora, and also east by way to Tehron. These roads when connected will reduce to hours the journey which now requires days. They will do much to civilize the county, to re-move the barbarism, and will promote peace and bring prosperity to the country. At the present the condition of the country is very uncomfortable on account of the lack of trains. The recent enthusiasm of foreign capitalists is tending to introduce railroads in every section of the country, bringing to that country many blessings which have been excluded for a long time. A few more words may be interesting concerning the trains and the way of running. The trains are very far from being com-fortable. There are three classes of cars, and three grades of tickets. The fare is about 3-4 cents a mile. The first-class car is not equal to the regular passenger car of Pennsylvania. There are no excursion tickets, no smoking cars, no closets ; neither is there any water ; passengers generally carry a pitcher or tumbler to get a drink at the depots, which are provided with wells—nor even do they have stoves to heat the cars in winter. Cars are divided into four or five compartments, each having two seats cross ways, so that passengers sit facing one another. The doors are on both sides of these compartments ; conductor asks for tickets from these doors. There is no connection between two cars. A narrow platform extends on both sides of the car upon which now and then the conductor goes and comes from one car to another for the tickets. The arrival and departure of trains are made known to the people five minutes before by the ringing of a bell in the depots. After the signal of the bell the ticket window is open, and you see passengers, after getting their pass-port examined by the police, which are always in the depots, hastily buy their tickets and run to the cars. When a train ar-rives at a town or city all passengers are taken into the waiting room, where their pass-ports and trunks are examined, then they are left out. 64 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. LEAVING THE NEST. M. R. RABY, '01. THE subject suggests to our mind a nest in which there are some young birds. They have been under the care and protection of the mother bird up till this time ; shelter and food have been provided for them, and now they have grown to maturity and are about to leave the nest. When they do this they must take care of themselves ; hunt their own shelter, seek their own food and be prepared to protect themselves against dangers. As soon as the bird has strength enough to get to the top of the nest it will jump from branch to branch, and after a few unsuccessful attempts, will be able to fly. Rooking at the subject in a different light we can apply it to mankind. We may ask the question, " Why does the young man seek to leave home?" It is instinct with the bird; but man is endowed with an intellect, and different reasons may be given, which will answer the question. Sometimes he begins to feel the responsibility of life. He looks about, sees that those older than himself have all left the homes of their childhood and are now busy with life's duties. He feels that each one is put here for some purpose; there is some work for each one to do, so when he comes to the full attainment of his powers he is ready for life's work. The influences and surroundings at home determine largely whether he will make a start early or later in life. If his parents are hard working people, he will see this and will lighten their burden when he can, perhaps by leaving home and relieving them of the care of himself. On the other hand, if his parents are well-to-do, he will not likely leave home so soon. Sometimes there is a spirit of wandering which seizes the young man. He becomes unsettled, and perhaps discontented with the quiet, uneventful life at home, and wishes to see some-thing of the world. This is the most critical period in his life ; this is where he ought to pause and think. I cannot suggest any one better as an ideal man of character than Abraham Lincoln—one who left his nest thoughtfully aim-ing at something higher than simply remaining in the log cabin and not making use of his talents. He attained true greatness through his own efforts ; and, by making use of every oppoitun-ity, at the time of his death he held the highest office which a nation could bestow upon him. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 65 Who can tell on looking at the head and face of a child what his future will be? Look at the eye, nose and mouth of the boy at school and you will not fail to perceive from Lhe very outlines of his countenance that his destiny depends upon the influences by which he may be surrounded. On the one band you see him choosing his profession and contemplating a settled life, wedding himself to a virtuous and loving woman. "In another case you seethe man emerging from the scenes of brutal intoxication to plunge into deeper and darker vices, until life becomes a burden and he goes down to the grave forsaken and alone." "How different this from the career of the upright man, whose happiest hours are spent in the home with his loving family and who grows old amid the most genial influences, honored and loved, and who goes to his last resting place amid the tears of friends and loved ones, cheered by the hope of a happy reunion where life is perfect and joy complete." EXCHANGES. THE Oratorical Contest Number (February) of The Midland is the best exchange that has reached us to date. It contains eight orations that are worthy of a second reading. The March number is at Normal, which is good. AMONG the March journals, another special number appears ; it is the Poetry Number of The College Student, F. and M. It con-tains several rather carefully written and interesting poems by students. THE Marchjuniata Echo contains a high-grade story, A Legend of Alfarata and the Arbutus, by W. L,. Shafer. It is especially interesting to those familiar with the fabled Onojutta (Juniata). TIME'S Warning, in St. John's Collegian; Debating as a Fac-tor in Education, in The Bucknell Mirror, and The Use of the Dictionary, in The Roanoke Collegian, are worthy of notice. 66 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. WE welcome to our list of exchanges The Georgeionian. It is a bright, cheerful journal, containing weighty matter, with an abundance of foil. A DOWNFALL. c. w. w., 'oi. As I was going' down the street, I met a charming- girl ; She was so pretty and so sweet— My head was in a whirl. I wished to pass her dandy like, I wished to cut a swell, When I a cellar-door did strike, And lo ! behold !—I fell. I picked me up—a silly goose ; I heard a little laugh— A merry giggle, and—the deuce— I heard her say—" the calf." c$p THE DAY OF REST. There is a day of peace and rest For every troubled mind ; A day of joy supremely blest, Where strife is left behind. Grief comes to man as comes the night Upon the fading day ; But joy comes with the morning light, And dawn dispels the gray. The soul of each one seems to him So torn and bruised by woe, Unlooked for things with visage grim, Than ever man did know. But though the heart be bruised and torn, The future may seem dark ; The night will yet burst into morn More bright than heavens arc. Have courage, then, while yet 'tis night And storms seclude the stars; A fairer day more sunny, bright Shall greet your morning hours. -W. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 67 THE BRAVE AT HOME. T. BUCHANAN REED. The maid who binds the warrior's sash With smile that well her pain dissembles, The while beneath her drooping- lash One starry tear-drop hangs and trembles ; Though Heaven alone records the tear, And fame shall never know her story, Her heart has shed a drop as dear As e'er bedewed the field of glory. The wife who girds her husband's sword, 'Mid little ones who weep or wonder, And bravely speaks the cheering word, Although her heart be rent asunder; Doomed mightily in her dreams to hear, The bolts of death around him rattle, Hath shed as sacred blood as e'er Was poured upon the field of battle. The mother who conceals her grief While to her breast her son she presses, Then breathes a few brave words and brief, Kissing the patriot brow she blesses, With no one but her secret God To know the pain that weighs upon her, Sheds holy blood as e'er the sod Received on Freedom's field of honor. ' PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. C. R. SOLT MERCHANT TAILOR Masonic BIdg., GETTYSBURG Our collection of "Wooleus for the coming- Fall and."Winter season cannot be surpassed for variety, attractive designs and general completeness. The latest st3'les of fashionable novelties in the most approved shades. Staples of exceptional merit, value and wearing" durability. Also altering, repairing, dyeing and scouring at moderate prices. .FOR UP-TO-DATE. Clothing, Hats, Shoes, And Men's Furnishing Goods, go to I. HALLEM'S MAMMOTH CLOTHING HOUSE, Chambersburg St., GETTYSBURG, PA. ESTABLISHED 1867 BY AEEEN WALTON. ALLEN K. WALTON, President and Treasurers ROBT. J. WALTON Superintendent. flammelstoian Broom Stone Company Quarrymen and Manufacturers of Building Stone, Sawed Flagging and Tile Waltonville, Dauphin Co., Pa. Contractors for all kinds of Telegraph and Express Address. Cut Stone Work. BROWNSTONE, PA. Parties visiting- the Quarries will leave cars at Brownstone Station on the P. & R. R. B. For a nice sweet loaf of Bread call on J. RAJHER Baker of Bread and Fancy Cakes, GETTYSBURG. PA. ELMER & AMEND, Manufacturers and Importers of Chemicals and Chemical Apparatus 205, 207, 209 and 211 Third Avenue, Corner 18th Street NEW YORK. Finest Bohemian and German Glassware, Royal Berlin and Meissen Porcelain, Pure Hammered Platinum, Balances and Weights. Zeiss Mic-roscopes and Bacteriological Apparatus; Chemical Pure Acids and Assay Goods. SCOTT PAPER COMPANY MAKERS OF FINE TOILET PAPER 7th and Greenwood Ave. PHILADELPHIA PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. The Century Double-Feed Fountain Pen. Folly Warranted 16 Kt. Gold Pen, Iridium Pointed. GEO. EVELER, Agent for Gettysburg College PRICE LIST. No. 1. Chased, long- or short $2 00 No. 1. Gold Mounted 3 00 No. 3. Chased 3 00 No. 3. Gold Mounted 4 00 Spiral, Black or Mottled $2 50 Twist, " " 2 50 Hexagon, Black or Mottled 2 50 Pearl Holder, Gold Mounted 5 00 THE CENTURY PEN CO., WHITEWATER, WIS Askyour Stationer or our Agent to show them to you. Agood local agent wanted in every school. vmmwmwmwmimwmmwmmL I Printing and Binding We Print This Book THE MT. HOLEY STATIONERY AND PRINTING CO. does all classes of Printing- and Binding-, and can furnish you any Book, Bill Head, Letter Head, Envelope, Card, Blank, or anything pertain-ing to their business in just as good style and at less cost than you can obtain same elsewhere. They are located among- the mountains but their work is metropolitan. You can be convinced of this if you give them the opportunity. Mt, Holly Stationery and Printing Co. t**wkk7**. 3 H. S. BENNER, .DEALER IN. Groceries, Notions, Queensware, Glassware, Etc., Tobacco and Cigars. J7 CHAMBERSBURG ST. 1 WE RECOMMEND THESE BUSINESS MEN. Pitzer House, (Temperance) JNO. E. PITZER, Prop. Rates |1.00 to $1.25 per day. Battlefield a specialty. Dinner and ride to all points of interest,including the three days* fig'ht, (1.25. No. 127 Main Street. MUMPER & BENDER Furniture Cabinet Making, Picture Frames Beds, Springs, Mattresses, Etc. Baltimore St., CIETTYSBURa, PA. You will find a full line of Pure Drugs and Fine Sta-tionery at the People's Drug Store Prescriptions a Specialty. .GO TO. f?ote! (Gettysburg Barber Sfyop. Centre Square. B. M. SEFTON J. A. TAWNEY ,. Is ready to furnish Clubs and Bread, Rolls, Etc. At short notice and reasonable rates. ■Washington & Midde Sts., Gettysburg. W.RCODORI, Sin^TSXl Dealer in Beef, Pork, Lamb, Veal, Sausage. Special rates to Clubs. York St., GETTYSBURG. Davib Croxel, Dealer in ^tne groceries anb Hotiorts *_{-c4}orfc Street. .GO TO. CHAS. E. BARBEHENN, Barber In the Eagle Hotel, Cor. Main and Washington Sts. YOHN BROS Agents for the Keystone State, Waldo, Washburn, Groupner & Meyer. Highest Grade Mandolins, Guitars, Banjos, Mandollas and Mandocellos. Headquarters for Phonographs, Graphophones and supplies. Trimmings of every description. All sheet music one-half off. Earge discounts on Books and studies. 326 Market St., Harrisburg, Pa. FAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. Spalding's OFFICIAL Athletic Goods Officially adopted by the leading Colleges, Schools and Athletic Clubs of the Country. Every requisite lor Baseball, Football, Golf, Tennis, Athlet-ics, Gymnasium. Spalding-'s Offi-cial League Ball is the Official Ball of the Na-tional League and all the lead-ing college asso-ciations Handsome cata-logue of Athletic Sports free to any address. Spalding's Baseball Guide for 1900,10 cts. A. Q. SPALD1NG & BROS. New York Chicago Denver ROWE. YOUR GROCER Carries Pull Line of Groceries, Canned Goods, Etc, Best Coal Oil and Brooms at most Reasonable Prices. OPPOSITE COLLEGE CAMPUS. S. J. CODORI, *# Druggists Dealer in Drugs, Medicines, Toilet Articles, J> Stationery, Blank Books, Amateur Pho-tographic Supplies, Etc., Etc. BALTIMORE ST. R. H. CULP PAPER HANGER, Second Square, York Street. COLLEGE EMBLEMS. EMIL ZOTHE, ■ ENGRAVER, DESIGNER AND MANUFACTURING JEWELER. 19 S. NINTH ST. PHILADELPHIA, PA. SPECIALTIES: Masonic Marks, Society Badges, College Buttons, Pins, Scarf Pins, Stick Pins and Athletic Prizes. All Goods ordered through A.N. Bean. To Repair Broken Arti-cles use Remember MAJOR'S RUBBER CEMENT, MAJOR'S LEATHER CEMENT. Meneely Bell Co. TROY, N. Y. MANUFACTURERS OF SUPERIOR BELLS The 2000 pound bell now ringing in the tower of Pennsylvania Col-lege was manufactured at this foundry. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. You can't expect to create the im-pression that you are well dressed unless your clothes are MADE FOR YOU. Equivocate as you may, the fact remains that ready-made garments lack that air of exclusiveness which custom work possesses. J. O. LIPPY, Merchant Tailor 39 Chambersburg- St., Gettysburg1, Pa. G. E. SPANGLER, Dealer in Pianos, Organs, Music, Musical Instruments, Strings, Etc. YORK STREET. 1ST SQUARE. GETTYSBURG. L. D. Miller, GROCER Confectioner and Fruiterer. Ice Cream and Oysters in Season. 19 Main St. GETTYSBURG City Hotel, Main St. Gettysburg. J* Free 'Bus to and from all Trains Thirty seconds' walk from either depot Dinner with drive over field with four or more, $1.35 Rates $1.50 to $2.00 per day John E. Hughes, Frop. ^WlLLlNSUREYOUR^ FAMILYONEYEAR/ i AGAINST ILLNE5S. 1 PHY5ICIAN5& PLUMBERS' BILLS.DUETO IMPURE AIR, To/itrPstPfR agrnrW-tsi* ,N. flew York, Bos/on. PA//d
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Six years after former President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the disastrous consequences of this decision are still adding up. In addition to Iran being closer than ever to a nuclear weapons capability, now we must consider how the declining security situation in the Middle East has raised the stakes significantly. Trump promised a "better deal" but instead we got an increasingly costly blunder that may be impossible to fix.To fully understand the enormity of Trump's decision to leave the Iran deal, consider this: When the U.S. and Iran were complying with the deal, it was estimated that it would take Iran about one year to produce enough fissile material (in this case, weapons grade uranium) for a nuclear bomb (known as the "breakout" time). The states negotiating with Iran (the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, and Germany) assessed that this would be enough time to respond to possible violations and prevent Iran from producing a bomb. Even if Iran were to acquire sufficient fissile material, it could still take another year for Iran to make a deliverable nuclear weapon. As of May, 2018, the deal was working and considered (by most) to be a great success.Then President Trump unilaterally left the deal, calling it a "horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made." And now we are in a much worse place. Iran says it has no intent to produce nuclear weapons and U.S. intelligence sees no current efforts by Tehran to weaponize, yet Tehran is believed to be not one year but just weeks from being able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb if it chooses to do so. At the same time, the ability of international inspectors to detect violations in a timely manner has eroded. As one U.S. official said of Iran, "they are dancing right up to the edge."Worse still, relations between the United States and Iran have been so damaged by Trump's withdrawal that it does not appear as though the deal can be resurrected. Any efforts to stabilize the U.S.-Iran relationship have been severely complicated by the recent exchange of direct attacks between Israel and Iran. Just as we need a non-military approach more than ever, the prospects for a diplomatic solution appear distant. What's worse is that increasing tensions may be pushing Tehran closer to a political decision to go nuclear. The danger of an Iranian bomb and the related risk that Israel could attack Iran's nuclear sites could lead to wider military conflict in the region. Of course, it did not have to be this way. The deal was working until Trump abandoned it and, if he had not, it could still be working today.How did we get here?To comply with the Iran deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, Tehran agreed to significantly limit its nuclear program. Under the deal:Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% to 300kg and limit uranium enrichment to 3.67%, suitable for civilian nuclear power but well below highly enriched (20%) or weapons grade (90%). Those limits would have lasted for 15 years.Tehran limited the number of uranium centrifuges in operation by two-thirds and committed not to build any new enrichment facilities for 15 years. The Fordow enrichment plant (designed as a secret, underground facility) was prohibited from enriching uranium, and limited enrichment could take place only at the Natanz facility.Iran agreed to redesign another nuclear facility to produce much less plutonium and its spent fuel would be shipped out of country. Iran agreed to provisionally implement additional safeguards under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).A year after President Trump's withdrawal, Iran began to retaliate by incrementally breaching the terms of the deal. Tehran lifted the cap on its uranium stockpile, increased enrichment beyond the allowed 3.67% and resumed and expanded activity at prohibited nuclear facilities.Many of Iran's advances were taken in response to provocative actions from the U.S. and Israel. In early 2020, the Trump administration killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and soon after Tehran announced that it would no longer abide by its enrichment commitments under the deal. But, even so, Tehran said it would return to compliance if the other parties did so and met their commitments on sanctions relief.In late 2020, Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated near Tehran, reportedly by Israel. Soon after, Iran's Guardian Council approved a law to speed up the nuclear program by enriching uranium to 20%, increasing the rate of production, installing new centrifuges, suspending implementation of expanded safeguards agreements, and reducing monitoring and verification cooperation with the IAEA. The Agency has been unable to adequately monitor Iran's nuclear activities under the deal since early 2021.Iran began enriching uranium to 20% in early 2021 at Fordow and then to 60% at Natanz a few months later after an act of sabotage damaged Natanz. Since then, Iran has been steadily increasing the rate of enriched uranium production. The latest IAEA report (February 2024) estimates Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to stand at 5,525kg, more than 27 times the level permitted under the deal, with 833kg enriched to 20-60%.How close to a bomb?Iran is steadily advancing its nuclear program, getting ever closer to becoming a "threshold state" with the ability to make a weapon while making no overt move to build one.The U.S. government estimated in March 2022 that Iran would need as little as one week to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon, according to a State Department official. During a March 2023 congressional hearing, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley testified that Iran could produce this amount of enriched uranium "in approximately 10-15 days."In its 2024 annual threat assessment, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that "Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, if it chooses to do so."And in March 2024, France, Germany, and the UK estimated that Iran had acquired enough highly enriched uranium that, if enriched further to 90%, would theoretically be enough for three nuclear explosive devices.There is greater uncertainty about how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon once it has the required weapons-grade uranium. Such steps, referred to as "weaponization," include producing uranium metal and shaping it into bomb parts, producing high explosives and electronics, and fitting it all into a device that could be used for a demonstration test. It would presumably take longer to produce a bomb that could be delivered by aircraft or a warhead small enough to fit onto a ballistic missile.According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and has not resumed it. Reportedly, this program's goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A State Department official stated in April 2022 that Iran would need approximately one year to complete the necessary weaponization steps.We cannot put Humpty Dumpty back together againMuch of Iran's uranium activities can be reversed; centrifuges can be disassembled, facilities can be closed, and uranium stocks can be blended down or shipped out of the country, as was done under the terms of the original deal. However, after years of operating more sophisticated centrifuges, Iran has acquired technical knowledge that cannot be undone.But more importantly, we have lost the political opportunity to reach a comprehensive deal with Iran. The Iran nuclear deal would not have been possible without the active support of Russia and China. Yet these countries are no longer aligned with the West on these issues and Iran is actively supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine and selling oil to China. Iran does not need sanctions relief from the United States as much as it once did.It was often said that although the Iran deal did not solve all the problems in the U.S.-Iran relationship, it solved an important one by taking an Iranian nuclear bomb out of the equation. That even if the myriad problems in the Middle East continued, at least we would not be facing those challenges and Iran on the nuclear threshold. And now that is exactly where we are.The lessons of this tragic tale are clear: a meaningful nuclear agreement is much harder to create than to destroy; if we are lucky enough to get one it should be protected; and if we lose it, we should try to replace it.The Iran deal was a truly remarkable achievement, and we would be much better off today if the United States had rejected the fantasy of a "better deal" and remained in compliance with the one we had. Trump's decision (aided by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and then-national security adviser John Bolton) to walk away was an historic and utter failure. Now, the prospects of finding a new diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear crisis are daunting. But we must try; the alternatives are worse.
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Last year's Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli war on Gaza, which has killed roughly 35,000 Palestinians, have impacted relationships within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — members appear to be moving closer together. As the Gaza war expands into Lebanon, Yemen, the Red Sea, and elsewhere, and while Iran and Israel's hostilities brought the region into uncharted waters earlier this month, the monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula are strengthening ties within the larger Gulf Arab family.In a historical context, this makes complete sense. To understand why, it is useful to first go back to the chaotic period of the late 1970s and early 1980s.For the Persian Gulf's Arab monarchies, 1979 was a terrifying year. To varying degrees, the Western-backed Gulf Arab leaders saw both Iran's Islamic revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as dangerous developments. By 1981, the six conservative Gulf Arab states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — came together to bolster their collective security by establishing the GCC.Over the decades, the GCC states have put their ideological and geopolitical differences aside in the interest of growing Gulf Arab unity, particularly during periods of increased instability. Cases include the 1990/91 Kuwaiti crisis, the 2010/11 Arab Spring uprisings, the meteoric rise of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in mid-2014, and the Taliban's return to power in 2021. By the same token, at times of greater stability in the region and fewer threats to the Gulf Arab monarchies, internal divisions and differences between the GCC members have tended to elevate to the surface.It was no coincidence that the first GCC crisis broke out in March 2014. At that time, the revolutionary tide of the Arab Spring had largely dissipated and the counter-revolutionary Gulf Arab states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain — felt the need to pressure Qatar into abandoning the pro-revolutionary and Islamist-friendly policies that shaped Doha's approach to many of the 2010/11 uprisings which shook the Arab world. Yet, that GCC spat ended later that year after ISIL had usurped large portions of Iraq and Syria. Then, the second GCC crisis, which was an outcome of basically the exact same issues that led to the first GCC crisis, erupted in mid-2017 when ISIL was significantly less powerful.Although the Gulf Arab states — unlike Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria — do not share land borders with Israel-Palestine, all six GCC members are extremely worried about the situation in Gaza and its ramifications for the wider region, including the Persian Gulf. Among the Gulf Arab monarchies, there is much common cause and shared concerns about further regionalization of the Gaza war. These concerns have led to Gulf Arab officials becoming increasingly frustrated with U.S. leadership in the region and the Biden administration's refusal to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire."[The] war in Gaza has unified GCC [states] in terms of moral, political, and diplomatic solidarity with Gaza and the Palestinians," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a Dubai-based Emirati political scientist, in an interview with RS. "Israel has become a killer machine in Gaza for the past 200 days and this is to nobody's liking in the Arab Gulf states," he added.There are important domestic ramifications to consider too. Officials in the Gulf Arab monarchies fear the potential for the Palestinian cause to mobilize and/or radicalize their own citizens in ways that could upset the status quo in GCC states and the wider region. Palestine-related protests in Egypt and Jordan have potential to fuel significant unrest in those two countries, whose stability is vitally important to the Gulf Arabs.Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) recently spoke by phone with the president of the UAE Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) and the emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim. In these two conversations, the Gulf Arab leaders discussed the heightening of regional tensions and threats to stability and security in the Middle East. MbS, MbZ, and Emir Tamim all agreed on the need to mitigate security risks and take measures to prevent the region's crises from spiraling out of control.On April 22, Oman's Sultan Haitham paid his first visit to the UAE since he became his country's head of state in January 2020. While in Abu Dhabi, Sultan Haitham and MbZ discussed a host of issues at the bilateral, regional, and global levels. During Sultan Haitham's visit, companies from Oman and the UAE signed $35.12 billion worth of deals in various sectors such as transport and energy. The Omanis and Emiratis are focused on advancing their countries' economic integration through various projects and initiatives, most notably the Etihad Rail which links Oman's Sohar port to Abu Dhabi.The GCC states have come a long way in terms of mending fences since the historic al-Ula summit of January 2021 officially ended the Emirati- and Saudi-led blockade of Qatar. Indeed, it was not long ago when a phone call between MbS and Emir Tamim, or between MbZ and the Qatari emir, would have created many headlines given the extent to which Saudi-Qatari and Emirati-Qatari relations had deteriorated. "The Gaza war has brought Qatar and the UAE closer," Abdulla told RS.These past rifts within the GCC were not only about Qatar. The UAE and Oman were having their share of problems in bilateral affairs throughout Sultan Qaboos's final decade on the throne. Yet, Sultan Haitham's recent visit to the UAE underscored how the leadership in both Muscat and Abu Dhabi are focused on both playing their diplomatic cards to try to bring regional crises under control while also pushing ahead with their economic transformations at home through ambitious visions aimed at eliminating their economic dependence on hydrocarbons.In all GCC states, there is an understanding that more discussions between their leaders and growing levels of inter-GCC cooperation across a host of domains is necessary to achieve progress on both fronts. The Gulf Arab monarchies realize that this is not a time for internal divisions and friction between the different royal families to prevent the six GCC members from reaching their potential through greater Gulf Arab unity.GCC states have strengthened their relationships with each other since October 7 because "there needed to be coordination given that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are playing leadership roles in this conflict," said Aziz Alghashian, a fellow with the Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianisation project at Lancaster University.Nonetheless, while the GCC members are bolstering their cooperation as Israel's war on Gaza rages, some experts believe that competition between the Gulf Arab states vis-à-vis Gaza might emerge after the dust settles and the post-war phase begins in the Palestinian enclave."There is potential that it could be turbulent in the future once there is a real process of addressing the day after in Gaza and that could [relate to] aspects of burden sharing [and] aspects of competition," Alghashian said. "So, there is that to look out for in the future. Maybe it's speculative for now, but I don't think we should count it out."
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The latest addition to PBS's American Masters series — "The Incomparable William F. Buckley, Jr." — makes for engrossing viewing, which isn't surprising since Buckley himself was compulsively watchable (and readable).The story of Buckley's life and career has been well and often told, not least by the protagonist himself. A much anticipated biography two decades in the making by Sam Tanenhaus is expected early next year. A globe-trotting journalist, editor, author, television personality, friend of Ronald and Nancy Reagan (among many others), and founder of the conservative magazine National Review, Buckley was, in the estimation of the late Dartmouth professor and longtime National Review senior editor Jeffrey Hart, "the most important journalist since Walter Lippmann." "In fact," continued Hart, "Buckley's career was more impressive."Maybe so — after all, what started in 1955 as a niche magazine with 16,000 subscribers, transformed over the ensuing decades into a big business, which came to be known colloquially as Conservative Inc., replete with multi-million dollar think tanks, obscenely well compensated radio and TV personalities, and presidential candidates seeking its imprimatur. There is of course no question that Lippmann and Buckley's respective audiences were immense. But the comparison to Lippmann has its limits. Of the two, Lippmann had an embarrassingly better track record on U.S. foreign policy, for example, particularly when it came to the Vietnam War and the Cold War.National Review's coverage of the Cold War was colored, and not for the better, by a roster of ex-Communists and intellectuals with ties and sympathies that extended beyond the Iron Curtain, to what became known as the Captive Nations. The philosopher Hannah Arendt observed that the postwar brand of anti-Communism "was originally the brainchild of former Communists who needed a new ideology by which to explain and reliably foretell the course of history."One of the things the documentary does well is demonstrate why the Vietnam War was the principal reason the now-infamous televised "debate" between Buckley and the novelist and critic Gore Vidal turned so ugly so quickly. After all, as the documentary notes, "Buckley was absolutely convinced that Vietnam was a crucial battle in the Cold War against Communism."And within Conservative Inc., no myth has been as unassailable as the idea that the Cold War was not only "won" by the United States but that it was "won" by Buckley's hearty band of conservatives. The columnist (and former Washington editor of NR) George Will summed up the prevailing view this way:"…Without Bill Buckley, no National Review. Without National Review, no Goldwater nomination. Without the Goldwater nomination, no conservative takeover of the Republican Party. Without that, no Reagan. Without Reagan, no victory in the Cold War. Therefore, Bill Buckley won the Cold War."But Will's reasoning suffers, as Buckley himself might have put it, from the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy.The triumphant reaction by NR to the end of the Cold War was noted with distaste by the great Hungarian-American historian John Lukacs in a letter to the man generally recognized as the "father" of containment, George F. Kennan, in September 1991,"Buckley gloats in the last number of his magazine: 'We won!" "We won!' He repeats that all over again, etc. etc."The idea that "We won, we won," was no doubt sincerely believed by Buckley and his followers, but it is, alas, an idea that is both ahistorical and dangerous — as we have come to see in the more than three decades since the end of the Cold War.***Once the Cold War ended, Buckley and his movement might have done well to reconsider the utility of continuing their alliance with the neoconservatives — after all, the rationale for so doing pretty much evaporated with the Soviet menace. By 1992, it was clear that a conservative alternative to the Cold War policy of global hegemony was emerging thanks to the insurgent candidacy of Patrick Buchanan. From the vantage point of 2024, it seems clear that for many conservatives, Buchanan's was the path not taken — tragically so. Instead of tending to our own garden after 1989, Washington, with the enthusiastic support of Conservative Inc., embarked on a frenetic campaign of ruinous overseas misadventures from which we have yet to disengage. For the conservative movement, the first post-Cold War decade saw fusionists continue their stranglehold on domestic policy, while the neocons grabbed the initiative on foreign policy. All the while, Buchanan became a prophet without honor in his own country.The American Conservative magazine co-founder Scott McConnell noted in a talk given in 2014 that as the Cold War was reaching its denouement, Buckley decided, thanks to the influence of the neocon power couple Norman Podhoretz and Midge Decter, "To allow neoconservatives to regulate the terms of Mideast discussion in his own magazine, National Review." The consequences for the magazine and the movement were profound. Thereafter, noted McConnell, "…The neoconservatives essentially won the right to supervise Israel-related discussions in National Review…Thereafter, any young Conservative knew the rules - you'd best be sufficiently pro-Israel to satisfy Midge and Norman if you wanted to advance."PBS ignores this history, making it seem as though the most interesting thing about Buckley in his final decade was his admission, made on the Charlie Rose Show, that he wanted to die. Whatever the (questionable) novelty of such sentiments by someone who had a) just lost his wife of 57 years and b) an advanced case of emphysema, Buckley's politics toward the end of his life became far more interesting than one might come to understand if they relied solely on PBS.Writing shortly after his death in 2008, Buckley biographer John Judis observed that, "Buckley chided conservatives or neoconservatives who refused to recognize that circumstances had changed — who invoked the old bogeymen or invented new ones." After visiting Cuba in 1998, Buckley even praised that great hero of foreign policy restrainers, John Quincy Adams, who, according to Buckley, "[r]eminded us that though we are friends of liberty everywhere, we are custodians only of our own."Indeed, thanks to the Iraq War and the mendacity of his old allies, the neocons who promoted it so ardently, the scales appeared to have fallen from Buckley's eyes. As Jeffrey Hart wrote in the American Conservative, "Buckley had expressed doubts about the Iraq War from the beginning ... During the last two years of his life, Bill Buckley understood the facts about Iraq and their implications." An exchange with with George Will on ABC in 2005 offered a sense of Buckley's thinking post-Iraq:Will: Today, we have a very different kind of foreign policy. It's called Wilsonian. And the premise of the Bush doctrine is that America must spread democracy, because our national security depends upon it. And America can spread democracy. It knows how. It can engage in national building. This is conservative or not?Buckley: It's not at all conservative. It's anything but conservative. It's not conservative at all, inasmuch as conservatism doesn't invite unnecessary challenges. It insists on coming to terms with the world as it is…The story of Buckley's tenacious engagement with the war and his break with the neocons is a fascinating one, though one that PBS either missed or left on the cutting room floor.As Tanenhaus recounted in The New Republic in 2007:"Buckley has faulted Bush for trying to go it alone in Iraq and chided neoconservatives who"simply overrate the reach of U.S. power and influence."….When I asked him recently if Iraq is the Republicans' Vietnam, he said, 'Absolutely.'"It is arguable that on matters of war and peace Buckley ended up holding positions closer to those held by his nemesis Gore Vidal than the Republican standard bearers in 2008 and 2012. Which is to say that by the end of his life, with regard to U.S. foreign policy, Buckley was getting it right.
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No, not a rock band, but my past few days of hanging out with super-smart folks and the folks who fund them and me. The Humboldt Foundation held a meeting for awardees, which involved lots of Franconian food (oh my), several amazing lectures, and meeting these folks. It is held in Bamberg where the spirit of Humboldt apparently lives. Let me explain.Despite Humboldt being a dead rich guy, the foundation is not what he created with his will, but by the German government to foster engagement with foreign scientists after World War II. It funds, among other things, foreign scholars to spend time in Germany working with German scholars. This foundation is why I am spending three months in Berlin this year and three months next year. The range of scholarship that is funded is pretty breathtaking, as our meeting includes philosophers and classisists (classics scholars, whatever they are called) and physicists and engineers and material scientists and folks in between. I have been to such a multidisciplinary event although it did remind me of a conference in 1990ish where Dave and I served as rapporteurs but that was mostly physicists and nuclear engineers and the like. The program here involved opening presentations about Bamberg and Humboldt, lectures on optical networks, philosophical rationality, climate change, and the human genome and mutation (now the X-men are on my mind). We also had small group organized by discipline-ish. My group of 20 covered the humanities and social sciences. And we had some excellent meals that exemplified the food of this region (heavy, really heavy). I was my first real European rail trip since my college days (except for some trips between Amsterdam and the Hague), and, yowza, are the rails smooth here. Great tank country. Anyhow, I got here a bit early on the first day so I walked around the town. Bamberg is, well, really old and mostly undamaged. It was founded around 1070 as the home to Holy Roman emperor types, and it was not bombed in World War II, which makes for a really amazing old city. It is famous for a specific kind of beer: smokey!The first evening started with a bit of history about Humboldt. He was one of two sons of a rich family, and he really, really wanted to explore and engage in some serious botany and other scientific investigations. Which he did once his mother died. He documented heaps of nature in Latin America and in Europe. His scientific interests were all over the place, so naming this foundation after him makes a great deal of sense. Alex said once: "Knowledge and insight are the joy and entitlement of humankind." Indeed.The first section of the first morning was by Polina Bayvel of University College London on optical networks. She did an excellent job of talking to folks who were a range of sharp hard physicists and curious social scientists--she made the optics of fiber and of the cloud and the internet most clear. The history of philosophy and religion prof lost me. In the afternoon, our roundtable was partly aimed at introductions so that maybe folks might find some people to work with down the road. The person at the table closest to me was... a former colleague. Vincent Pouloit, who was hired at McG in my sixth year or so there, is also here. That was a fun surprise as neither of us knew we are Humboldting this year until we read the program for the event. The group talked a bit about a variety of issues affecting contemporary social science including AI in the classroom.And then there was the award ceremony. It was really touching to have every awardee introduced and given a certificate. I will be most proud to frame it and put it on my office wall. I felt very outclassed here as some of the folks here are making tremendous contributions to science, but I am, of course, quite proud to be among them. Vincent!!!The meals, other than the heaviness of the food, have been the best part. The first night our table happened to be me and a sociologist and three super enthusiastic physicists who so much loved talking about their stuff and using their hands like fighter pilots to explain their concepts. Last night, as it was before the ceremony, there were some friends/guests of the Humbodlt Foundation at the dinner. So, I sat next to a very inquisitive chemist who asked me about NATO and other stuff, and explained his work--zapping things with lasers including ... coffee! The first presentation of the second day was by Tiffany Shaw (a Canadian!) who talked about Predicting Climate Change. It was a fascinating talk about some of the dynamics of climate change and where the uncertainty is. Nope, no uncertainty about it being caused by humans and that it is getting worse. One of the things I had not known is that the temperature change was essentially additive--that the temperatures are rising in a relatively linear fashion but the effect on precipitation is non-linear. That means it is getting to get much, much wetter. Oh my. I asked a question about 2023 since she had it on her final slide but didn't talk about how last year was beyond the predictions or at least at the outer end of the range of predictions. She suggested this year might actually not be quite as hot as there were some specific dynamics last year that were temporary that pushed things hotter than the general trends. She finished by saying how this was an exciting time to be doing this kind of work, which reminded me of how I left about doing the International Relations of Ethnic Conflict in the 1990s--exciting but scary and depressing. The next presentation was about the genome and mutation. The first big surprise is that most/all mutation is bad--making it more likely for someone to die. And, well, that ran against all the years of X-Men and Homo Superior. Magneto had the wrong idea about mutation? It turns out that what we think about evolution is wrong--it is not really progressive and more by chance! That mutations tend to be selected out in a large population (like yeast?!) but may remain in smaller populations like elephants these days or homonids way back when. This nearly neutral model of evolution has really shook things up even as it has not made it out of the genome scholars and into the popular understanding. I didn't stick around for the q&a as I had to get to a pharmacy before it closed. And then I explored more of Bamberg, going into various museums and super old buildings.My quest for life-changing strudel continues, alas, without success. It was fine. We have one last dinner, and then tomorrow, I take the train back to Berlin to prepare for my next adventure: skiing in the Alps! Hopefully, the wifi will be better in Zurs, but, of course, I will need it less as I will be out and about on many slopes and chair lifts!Once again, I am thinking--better to be lucky than good. This winter has been amazing--my time in Berlin and Vienna has been fantastic. I can now add my Bamberg adventure. Just a terrific time, learning a lot, and enjoying the Humboldt Spirit™.
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It is now clear that the Ukrainian offensive of the summer and fall of 2023 has failed, with minimal gains and enormous losses. There has been no repeat of the sweeping Ukrainian victories of 2022. Ukrainian army chief General Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that the war has now entered a stalemate.Russia is now attacking in its turn; and although so far its forces also have made only very slow progress, time does not appear to be on Ukraine's side. Russia has some four times Ukraine's population and 14 times its GDP, which give it huge advantages in what has become a war of attrition. Serious imbalances in the U.S. and European military industries mean that Russia is also producing far more shells than Ukraine is receiving from the West.Ukraine's victories in the first months of the war were due to the courage and grit of Ukrainian soldiers, certain particularly effective Western weapons, and extremely bad Russian planning. They were also, however, attributable to the fact that Ukraine was able to mobilize more men than Russia, due to President Putin's hesitation over increasing conscription. That advantage has now been reversed. Moreover, as recent developments in the U.S. Congress and in Europe make clear, there can be no guarantee that Western aid will continue at levels sufficient to allow Ukraine to continue the fight successfully.There is therefore no realistic prospect that Ukraine can significantly improve its existing position on the battlefield. The West can provide more weapons, but it cannot generate additional Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine is facing greater and greater difficulties in recruiting troops; meanwhile, Russia is calling up reserves and continually strengthening its defensive lines in southern and eastern Ukraine. Voices in the West that promote the idea of complete Ukrainian victory are becoming increasingly desperate; an example is the suggestion by retired American generals that, with additional U.S. missiles, Ukraine can somehow force Russia to evacuate Crimea through bombardment alone — something that the entire history of this war contradicts. To achieve this, Ukraine would also need massive amphibious forces that it altogether lacks.A ceasefire and negotiations for a peace settlement are therefore becoming more and more necessary for Ukraine. Indeed, if the fighting stopped along the existing battle lines, more than 80 percent of Ukraine would be fully independent of (and bitterly hostile to) Russia and free to do its best to move towards membership of the European Union. Given the Kremlin's original aims when it launched the invasion last year, and of the history of Russia's domination of Ukraine over the past 300 years, this would be not a Ukrainian defeat, but, on the contrary, a tremendous Ukrainian victory. If, on the other hand, the war continues indefinitely, there is a real possibility that Ukrainian resistance may collapse, whether through the exhaustion of its manpower or because Russia's additional forces allow it to reopen the fronts in northern Ukraine that it pulled back from last year and that Ukraine lacks the troops to defend.Recognizing this, the Biden administration is reported to be privately advising the Ukrainian government to start talks with Russia. It is however exceptionally difficult for the Ukrainian government to initiate talks. President Zelensky and other leading officials would have to reverse their repeated statements that they will not negotiate with Putin and that the only acceptable terms for even a provisional agreement are complete Russian withdrawal from all the territory that Russia has occupied since 2014. Ultra-nationalist groups are passionately opposed to any compromise. The Russian government for its part is naturally uninterested in a temporary ceasefire at present, since it, too, can see that time is on its side.In these circumstances, it is not enough for Washington to urge talks on the Ukrainians from behind the scenes, while insisting in public that only Ukraine can negotiate peace. Nor is it wise to defer any diplomatic initiative until after the next U.S. presidential election almost a year from now in the hope that both the Ukrainian forces and U.S. aid will hold up that long, and also that an embarrassing about face in the middle of the election campaign can be avoided.Ukraine may not be able to hold out that long, and a major Russian success, involving the conquest of significantly more Ukrainian territory, would confront the Biden administration with an agonizing choice: accept a Ukrainian defeat that would be a grave humiliation for the U.S. and NATO, or threaten direct intervention and risk nuclear war with Russia. Moreover, as the disaster in Israel and Gaza so vividly demonstrates, it is never sensible to trust that an inherently volatile situation like the U.S.-Russian struggle over Ukraine will remain stable. At any time, an accidental clash between (for example) the Russian and U.S. air forces over the Black Sea could precipitate a terrifying increase in tension and a lurch towards nuclear war. Even if the worst outcomes were avoided, such a crisis would have a dire effect on the global and U.S. economies.The full engagement of the United States in the peace process from the outset will be necessary if negotiations are to have any chance of success. Only a U.S. administration can bring sufficient pressure to bear on the Ukrainian government, while also offering reasonably credible security guarantees for the future. And only a U.S. administration can threaten Moscow that, for some time to come, massive U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine will continue, while at the same time offering the Kremlin compromises on wider issues of vital importance to Russia. If Moscow is to be brought to the negotiating table when the military situation is developing in its favor, it will need to be assured that Washington is prepared to discuss seriously a final settlement involving neutrality for Ukraine (of course, including international security guarantees), mutual force limitations in Europe, the lifting of sanctions, and some form of inclusive European security architecture to reduce the danger of more wars in the future.Initiating such engagement will be extremely difficult for the Biden administration, given its repeated promises of Ukrainian victory and declarations that only Ukraine can negotiate peace. The administration therefore will need outside help if it is to engage in peace talks with Russia.The administration should therefore reach out in private to India, Brazil, and other leading countries of the "Global South" and urge them to issue a strong collective call for a ceasefire and peace talks. In initiating talks, Washington could then present itself as bowing to the will of the global majority. This may also help counteract the disastrous impact on U.S. relations with the "Global South" of the war in Gaza. The U.S. will also need to build support among European allies for a peace effort, including strong public U.S. commitment to NATO.Full Chinese participation will also be essential if a peace process is to succeed. Chinese influence on Moscow will be critical if Russia is to be persuaded to abandon its maximalist ambitions in Ukraine and accept a compromise peace. Amid dangerously rising tensions between the United States and China, such an invitation from Washington would signal to Beijing Washington's willingness to accept China as a partner and legitimate stakeholder in the solution of global problems.None of this is going to be easy, and there will be a strong temptation in Washington to let things slide in the hope that something will happen to let U.S. diplomacy off the hook. To follow this path would, however, be a tragic error and a betrayal of the vital interests of both Ukraine and the United States. The present trajectory of the war is towards disaster. Only the United States can change that trajectory, but it will need a lot of help from its friends.Dear RS readers: It has been an extraordinary year and our editing team has been working overtime to make sure that we are covering the current conflicts with quality, fresh analysis that doesn't cleave to the mainstream orthodoxy or take official Washington and the commentariat at face value. Our staff reporters, experts, and outside writers offer top-notch, independent work, daily. Please consider making a tax-exempt, year-end contribution to Responsible Statecraft so that we can continue this quality coverage — which you will find nowhere else — into 2024. Happy Holidays!
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It is inevitable in any war — even a proxy one — that identical actions by the "enemy" and by your own side will be portrayed as wicked in the first case, moral and justified in the second. In much of the U.S. establishment and media however, belief in the innate righteousness of U.S. actions is so deeply-rooted that it can become a serious danger to the successful conduct of Washington policy. Why? Because it blinds American policymakers to the likely consequences of their own actions.The latest example of this involves the scheduled meeting between President Vladimir Putin and North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un. Most Western analysis has focused — probably correctly — on the likelihood that this will lead North Korea to provide Russia with artillery shells, of which North Korea has enormous reserves and considerable production capacity.The fighting in Ukraine seems to be moving towards a long-term war of attrition, and in such a war, levels of ammunition will play an absolutely central role. This is not an issue of the wickedness of the Russian invasion and the righteousness of support for Ukraine. It is a matter of hard military logistics.In return, Russia will at the very least help Pyongyang's cash-starved economy with subsidized energy. Depending on the scale of North Korean ammunition supplies to Russia, it is, however, very likely that Russia will agree to supply advanced missile technology in return.This would be a very serious step. While North Korea has possessed the capability to make nuclear weapons since at least 2006, its ballistic missile technology has developed much more slowly, limiting the range and accuracy of its arsenal. If North Korea with Russian help develops a significant number of nuclear missiles capable of striking the continental United States, this would mark an important shift in the military balance of power in North East Asia. At the very least, it would strengthen the North Korean regime considerably. In the worst case, the desire to prevent this from happening at all costs could propel a U.S. administration into some hideously dangerous preemptive military action.This anticipated deal between Russia and North Korea has led to predictable expressions of outrage from U.S. officials and journalists. So we must ask: What exactly did the Biden administration expect to happen as a result of its own actions? This spring, Washington brought intense pressure to bear on the government of South Korea to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, though Seoul had made its reluctance to do this extremely clear. In the end, a compromise was reached whereby South Korea would not supply Ukraine directly, but would "lend" 500,000 artillery shells to replenish U.S. stocks — thereby allowing the U.S. to transfer a similar number to Ukraine.You do not have to be a Russian sympathizer to see this as a distinction without a difference. Did nobody in the CIA, Pentagon, or State Department warn the White House that this would likely lead to a deal on weapons supplies between Russia and North Korea, and see the potential negative consequences for U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? This does not mean Washington could not or should not support Ukraine. However, if Washington wished to do this while avoiding broader negative ramifications globally, then there are only two possible paths to follow. First, refrain from certain actions (like the attempt to universalize sanctions against Russia) that have tended in this direction. Second, pursue talks with Russia — such as what took place at the height of the Cold War — aimed at formal or informal agreements that would rule out certain international actions by both sides, such as procuring weapons and ammunition from other countries in regions of high local tensions. Despite this Cold War precedent, all proposals for such talks have been howled down with accusations of "cowardice" and "treason."This is what the great American Realist thinker on international relations, Hans Morgenthau, meant when he wrote that it is a fundamental duty of statesmen to cultivate the ability to think themselves into the shoes of their opposite numbers — not to agree with them, but to understand how they are likely to behave in a given situation, so as to be able to craft your own policies accordingly. As Morgenthau also wrote, blind national self-righteousness is the greatest single obstacle to the cultivation of this ability.In the case of North Korea, this attitude long predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The description of North Korea as a "rogue state," endlessly repeated by an uncritical media, has helped to lock in this attitude until attempts by analysts to understand the conflict from the perspective of Pyongyang become completely impossible. Blind hostility to North Korea extends to relations between North Korea and its neighbors — which in addition to South Korea are, it may be remembered, China and Russia, but not the United States. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia drastically reduced its economic relations with North Korea and generally played a constructive role in cooperating with Washington to constrain Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development. China has maintained trade with North Korea, and this has undoubtedly played a key part in preserving the North Korean state; but Beijing has also used its economic influence to punish overly inflammatory actions by Pyongyang and has put pressure on the recalcitrant regime to engage in disarmament talks.Yet instead of recognizing this – and in consequence recognizing the consequences for America and South Korea if Moscow and Beijing were to move to actual full-scale support for North Korea – the overwhelming U.S. establishment and media response has been to blame Russia and China for not joining the U.S. in strengthening sanctions against North Korea even further. No understanding at all has been shown of the fears of both countries that an implosion of the North Korean state would create a massive crisis on their own borders.The U.S. failure to predict the likely — even inevitable — consequences of the U.S.-South Korean ammunition deal was bad enough. Much worse could be the consequences of the Biden administration's action last month in pulling South Korea into a much tighter security relationship with Japan as well as the United States — a grouping that Beijing will no doubt see as a threat to its interests and a probable future U.S. tool for the containment of China. Once again, has nobody in the U.S. foreign and security establishment warned the administration that the result is likely to be stronger Chinese support for Pyongyang?On the Korean peninsula, in Ukraine and everywhere else, developing the capacity to understand the motivations and predict the actions of other states requires that U.S. policymakers look honestly at the U.S. record and how America is likely to act and react in given circumstances. This includes self-awareness about the history of the Monroe Doctrine and U.S. determination to exclude any potentially hostile alliance or even influence from countries close to America's own borders — even if this means supporting or bringing to power some extremely vile local allies. Thus if American diplomats complain to their Chinese counterparts about Beijing's relationship with Kim Jong Un, the Chinese might reply wo men de wangba dan. This is (I am told) how you say "our son of a bitch" in Chinese; and it is an ancient Chinese principle most famously stated by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If U.S. policymakers remembered that aspect of their own history and policies, we can begin to develop a capacity for strategic empathy, and avoid increasing the dangers on the Korean peninsula, which Lord knows are dangerous enough already.