Il turismo e le attività da esso generate si combinano con il fattore territoriale dando luogo al processo di fruizione del servizio turistico caratterizzato essenzialmente dalla contestualità dell'erogazione e del consumo di un'entità in buona parte immateriale in un contesto geografico scelto dal consumatore e definito destinazione turistica. Se la chiarificazione del concetto di turismo e di prodotto turistico è risultata essenziale per spiegare in un certo senso le ragioni dell'offerta (perché nascono e si sviluppano le attività turistiche?), altrettanto significativa sembra l'opportunità di enucleare, tra le varie definizioni che sono state proposte nella letteratura specialistica, gli elementi caratteristici della destinazione turistica per arrivare alla spiegazione delle ragioni del management del sistema di offerta (prodotto complesso e globale). Le domande di fondo sono: Cosa spinge i turisti a partire dal luogo di abituale dimora per recarsi in una località che presenta caratteristiche naturali, ambientali e culturali completamente diverse dalla regione di partenza? Cosa fa trasformare un territorio in una destinazione? Perché alcuni flussi turistici prediligono determinate destinazioni rispetto alle altre? Quale è l'impatto sul piano della mobilità territoriale ed urbana? Il sistema dei trasporti può essere considerato una risorsa generatrice di vantaggi competitivi per una destinazione turistica? Il framework dell'articolo è rappresentato dalla teoria marshalliana del distretto industriale che pone il territorio e le sue risorse alla base dello sviluppo del sistema locale. Ad esso si tenta di sovrapporre il framework VRIO (Valore, Rarità, Inimitabilità, Organizzazione), derivato dalla Resource Based View, per stabilire se una determinata risorsa del territorio, nel caso di specie il sistemi di trasporto urbano ed extraurbano, può generare un vantaggio competitivo sostenibile e duraturo. Per l'analisi delle problematiche dell'impatto sul territorio delle politiche di sviluppo turistico e del Destination Management è utile il riferimento alla Stakeholder Theory ed un approccio Corporate Social Responsability (CSR). Date queste premesse, nel paper vengono esposti i vari contributi della letteratura specialistica sui sistemi turistici partendo dall'assunto di base che il turista è un soggetto che attiva un processo di spesa di parte del suo reddito in un luogo diverso dalla sua abituale dimora. La scelta della destinazione in cui fruire dei servizi turistici e svolgere le attività collaterali di consumo è il frutto di un processo decisionale complesso basato sulla selezione competitiva tra soluzioni alternative che siano in grado di rispondere ad un insieme di bisogni ed aspirazioni a parità di costi e di livello di servizi richiesti. Successivamente viene preso in esame il modo con cui una località geografica diviene destinazione turistica e come le caratteristiche strutturali (servizi di alloggio, ristorazione, accessori) ed infrastrutturali (accessibilità geografica, sociale ed economica) possano essere in grado di esprimere un richiamo "emozionale" per il turista; l'incontro tra domanda ed offerta viene visto in un'ottica postfordista secondo il framework "Mutual Value" che assegna un ruolo fondamentale alla componente dei servizi presente nell'offerta di vendita dei beni (materiali ed immateriali) per generare un vantaggio competitivo sul mercato. In prosieguo il fenomeno turistico viene messo in relazione al concetto di mobilità territoriale per evidenziare l'impatto che esso genera sul piano ambientale ed urbanistico e la necessità di monitorare il fenomeno e pianificare le azioni di adeguamento strutturale ed infrastrutturale del territorio nella direzione della sostenibilità. Infine verranno esposti dei casi di mobilità urbana ed extraurbana di tipo turistico secondo una prospettiva che vede il trasporto urbano ed extraurbano una vera e propria risorsa (VRIO) generatrice di vantaggio competitivo per il sistema locale. ; Tourism and activities it generates are combined with the territorial factor giving rise to the process of using the service in which, essentially, the delivery and consumption of tourism, an entity largely immaterial, are simultaneous in a geographical context chosen by the consumer and defined tourist destination. If clarification of the concept of tourism and tourism product was essential to explain to some extent the reasons for the offer (why tourism activities born and develop?), the opportunity to single out, among the various definitions that have been proposed in the literature, the characteristic features of the destination seems equally significant to get to the explanation of why management system offered (comprehensive and complex product). The basic questions are: What drives tourists to go from s place of habitual residence to a place in which the natural, environmental and cultural region are completely different from starting? What does turning a geographical place into a tourism destination? Because some tourists prefer certain destinations than the other? What is the impact of tourism in terms of territorial and urban mobility? The transport system can be considered a resource-generating competitive advantages? The framework of the article is represented by the Marshallian theory of industrial district which puts the land and its resources behind the development of the local system. It tries to overlay the framework VRIO (Value, Rarity, inimitably, Organization), derived from the Resource Based View, in determining whether a particular resource area can generate a sustainable competitive advantage and lasting. Stakeholder Theory is the framework that leads the analysis of the impact of tourism development policy on local businesses and the framework of Corporate Social Responsibility leads in environmental issues. Against this background, in this paper will be exhibited in the various contributions of the literature on tourism systems starting from the basic that tourist is a person who drives a process of spending a part of his income in a place other than in his habitual residence. The choice of the destination to enjoy the tourist facilities and carry out the complementary activities of consumption is the result of a complex decision-making process based on selection among alternative competitive solutions that are able to respond to a set of needs and aspirations to equal costs and level of services required. Then you will be taken into consideration of the manner in which a geographic location becomes a tourist destination and the way in wich the structural characteristics (accommodation services, catering, equipment) and infrastructure (accessibility geographical, social and economic) are able to express a point of "emotional" for tourists; the encounter between supply and demand is seen according to the post-Fordist framework of "Mutual Value" that drives the service process in tourism businesses and the way in which an assets (tangible and intangible) may be able to generate a competitive advantage in the market. Hereinafter the tourism phenomenon is related to the concept of territorial mobility to highlight the impact that it creates on environmental and urban planning, and the need to monitor and plan the phenomenon for structural and infrastructural adjustment of the territory in the way of sustainability. Finally will be exposed some cases of urban and extra-urban mobility in tourism according to a perspective that sees the urban and suburban transport a real resource (VRIO) generating competitive advantage for the local system.
Taking into account the limitations of official approaches for addressing agri-food research, as well as their associated policies to tackle the problems of hunger and vulnerability of agri-food systems to global change, it becomes necessary to consider new frameworks and alternative policies for research and management of agri-food systems. With this thesis we contribute to the advances of agri-food research by rethinking the way of conceptualizing the agri-food system and by designing and testing analysis tools capable to link the research process with the management dynamics found in the local territory. We focus our attention on those linked to the political paradigm of food sovereignty. To achieve this objective we adopted a deductive and inductive method of research, organized in three phases. During the first phase, and under the wider umbrella of Sociology of Agriculture and Food, we developed a conceptual and theoretical framework which integrates systemic thinking and development studies capable to analyze the political paradigm of food sovereignty. For this purpose, we linked the approach focused in the analysis of socio-ecological systems (SES) with the vulnerability approach focused in the analysis of actors¿ dynamics. As a result, we have obtained an integrate framework that address the ecological and social dimensions of agri-food systems. During the second phase, we tested the framework developed in an empirical case study of a local agri-food system of the canton of Loja, located at the Southern Ecuadorian Andean region. The case is of particular interest due to the recent consideration of comunas and barrios as basic units for citizen participation within decentralized autonomous governments; and, the parallel process of creation of new collective action organizations, such as the recently conformed Agroecological Network of Loja (RAL). Using empirical data obtained from a survey conducted between December 2013 and March 2014 based on questionnaires to households (N = 116) and interviews to key informants (N = 14). We analyzed the role of social and institutional factors on the local agri-food system configuration taking into account the pillars of food sovereignty within the analysis. The results showed the significant, but differentiated, role of institutions (Agroecological Network of Loja), social groups (Saraguro indigenous culture) and income generation strategies on the agri-food system configuration. During the third phase, we assessed the future vulnerability vs resilience of local agri-food system through a participatory scenario development process. Using data obtained from semi-structured interviews (N = 14 and N = 25) and two workshops we analyzed the future trajectories of transformation for the local agri-food system under multiple ecological, socio-economic and political drivers of change. Four scenarios were envisioned by local actors. This assessment showed how drivers of change can affect different components of the local agri-food system when it is conceptualized as SES; and, how different perspectives contribute to build different future trajectories of active transformation. Overall, the results of the research process emphasize the role played by actors (understood as an intersectional group where gender takes meaning from its intersection with ethnicity and class) and novel institutional arrangements action to star the active transformation of agri-food systems in the marginal Andes. These findings have implications in agri-food systems policy design at local level, where the local peasant initiatives of social innovation have to be seen as potential mean to achieve the materialization of the political paradigm of food sovereignty within Andean agri-food system. ; Frente a las limitaciones tanto de los enfoques oficiales para la investigación agroalimentaria como de las políticas asociadas para abordar el problema del hambre y la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas agroalimentarios al cambio global, se hace necesario considerar nuevos marcos de análisis y políticas alternativas para el estudio y la gestión de los sistemas agroalimentarios. Con este trabajo de tesis nos proponemos contribuir al avance de la investigación agroalimentaria repensado la forma de conceptualizar el sistema agroalimentario y diseñando herramientas de análisis que vinculen el proceso de investigación con las dinámicas de gestión encontradas en el territorio local, enfocándonos en aquellas vinculadas con la soberanía alimentaria. Para alcanzar este objetivo hemos realizado un proceso (inductivo y deductivo) bajo el paraguas de la sociología de la agricultura y la alimentación, que hemos llevado a cabo en tres fases de investigación. Durante la primera fase, hemos desarrollado un marco teórico y metodológico que integra el pensamiento sistémico y estudios del desarrollo bajo el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Con este fin hemos vinculado el enfoque centrado en el análisis de los sistemas socio-ecológicos (SES) con el enfoque de vulnerabilidad centrado en el análisis de la dinámica de los actores. Como resultado hemos obtenido un marco integrado que aborda las dimensiones ecológica y social de los sistemas agroalimentarios, tal y como lo requiere el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Durante la segunda fase, hemos aplicado empíricamente el marco desarrollado en el sistema agroalimentario del cantón Loja, ubicado en los Andes del sur de Ecuador. Este caso de estudio es de particular interés debido a la reciente consideración de las comunas y barrios como unidades básicas para la participación ciudadana dentro de los gobiernos autónomos descentralizados; y, paralelamente, a la creación de nuevos procesos de acción colectiva, como la Red Agroecológica Loja (RAL). Usando datos empíricos obtenidos de cuestionarios a hogares campesino (N = 116) y entrevistas en profundidad a informantes clave (N = 14), realizada entre diciembre de 2013 y marzo de 2014, analizamos el rol de los factores sociales e institucionales sobre la configuración del sistema agroalimentario integrando dentro del análisis los pilares de la soberanía alimentaria. Este análisis mostró el rol significativo, pero diferenciado, de las instituciones (Red Agroecológica Loja), grupos sociales (cultura indígena Saraguro) y las estrategias de generación de ingresos para dar lugar a la configuración del sistema agroalimentario local. Durante la tercera fase, evaluamos la vulnerabilidad vs resiliencia del sistema agroalimentario local mediante un proceso de análisis de escenarios participativos. Hemos analizado las futuras trayectorias de transformación del sistema agroalimentario local bajo múltiples conductores de cambio (de tipo ecológico, socio-económico y político) mediante el análisis de datos obtenidos a partir de entrevistas semi-estructuradas (N = 14 y N = 25) y dos talleres. Los actores locales visionaron cuatro posibles futuros escenarios. Nuestra evaluación muestra cómo los conductores de cambio afectan los diferentes componentes del sistema agroalimentario local cuando se lo conceptualiza como SES; y, cómo las diferentes perspectivas de los actores construyen diferentes trayectorias para la transformación activa del sistema. En general, los resultados del proceso de investigación enfatizan el rol que desempeñan los actores (entendido como un grupo interseccional donde el género se concibe a partir de su intersección con la etnicidad y la clase) y los nuevos arreglos de acción institucional para iniciar la transformación activa del sistema agroalimentario en los sectores marginales andinos. ; Postprint (published version)
Taking into account the limitations of official approaches for addressing agri-food research, as well as their associated policies to tackle the problems of hunger and vulnerability of agri-food systems to global change, it becomes necessary to consider new frameworks and alternative policies for research and management of agri-food systems. With this thesis we contribute to the advances of agri-food research by rethinking the way of conceptualizing the agri-food system and by designing and testing analysis tools capable to link the research process with the management dynamics found in the local territory. We focus our attention on those linked to the political paradigm of food sovereignty. To achieve this objective we adopted a deductive and inductive method of research, organized in three phases. During the first phase, and under the wider umbrella of Sociology of Agriculture and Food, we developed a conceptual and theoretical framework which integrates systemic thinking and development studies capable to analyze the political paradigm of food sovereignty. For this purpose, we linked the approach focused in the analysis of socio-ecological systems (SES) with the vulnerability approach focused in the analysis of actors¿ dynamics. As a result, we have obtained an integrate framework that address the ecological and social dimensions of agri-food systems. During the second phase, we tested the framework developed in an empirical case study of a local agri-food system of the canton of Loja, located at the Southern Ecuadorian Andean region. The case is of particular interest due to the recent consideration of comunas and barrios as basic units for citizen participation within decentralized autonomous governments; and, the parallel process of creation of new collective action organizations, such as the recently conformed Agroecological Network of Loja (RAL). Using empirical data obtained from a survey conducted between December 2013 and March 2014 based on questionnaires to households (N = 116) and interviews to key informants (N = 14). We analyzed the role of social and institutional factors on the local agri-food system configuration taking into account the pillars of food sovereignty within the analysis. The results showed the significant, but differentiated, role of institutions (Agroecological Network of Loja), social groups (Saraguro indigenous culture) and income generation strategies on the agri-food system configuration. During the third phase, we assessed the future vulnerability vs resilience of local agri-food system through a participatory scenario development process. Using data obtained from semi-structured interviews (N = 14 and N = 25) and two workshops we analyzed the future trajectories of transformation for the local agri-food system under multiple ecological, socio-economic and political drivers of change. Four scenarios were envisioned by local actors. This assessment showed how drivers of change can affect different components of the local agri-food system when it is conceptualized as SES; and, how different perspectives contribute to build different future trajectories of active transformation. Overall, the results of the research process emphasize the role played by actors (understood as an intersectional group where gender takes meaning from its intersection with ethnicity and class) and novel institutional arrangements action to star the active transformation of agri-food systems in the marginal Andes. These findings have implications in agri-food systems policy design at local level, where the local peasant initiatives of social innovation have to be seen as potential mean to achieve the materialization of the political paradigm of food sovereignty within Andean agri-food system. ; Frente a las limitaciones tanto de los enfoques oficiales para la investigación agroalimentaria como de las políticas asociadas para abordar el problema del hambre y la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas agroalimentarios al cambio global, se hace necesario considerar nuevos marcos de análisis y políticas alternativas para el estudio y la gestión de los sistemas agroalimentarios. Con este trabajo de tesis nos proponemos contribuir al avance de la investigación agroalimentaria repensado la forma de conceptualizar el sistema agroalimentario y diseñando herramientas de análisis que vinculen el proceso de investigación con las dinámicas de gestión encontradas en el territorio local, enfocándonos en aquellas vinculadas con la soberanía alimentaria. Para alcanzar este objetivo hemos realizado un proceso (inductivo y deductivo) bajo el paraguas de la sociología de la agricultura y la alimentación, que hemos llevado a cabo en tres fases de investigación. Durante la primera fase, hemos desarrollado un marco teórico y metodológico que integra el pensamiento sistémico y estudios del desarrollo bajo el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Con este fin hemos vinculado el enfoque centrado en el análisis de los sistemas socio-ecológicos (SES) con el enfoque de vulnerabilidad centrado en el análisis de la dinámica de los actores. Como resultado hemos obtenido un marco integrado que aborda las dimensiones ecológica y social de los sistemas agroalimentarios, tal y como lo requiere el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Durante la segunda fase, hemos aplicado empíricamente el marco desarrollado en el sistema agroalimentario del cantón Loja, ubicado en los Andes del sur de Ecuador. Este caso de estudio es de particular interés debido a la reciente consideración de las comunas y barrios como unidades básicas para la participación ciudadana dentro de los gobiernos autónomos descentralizados; y, paralelamente, a la creación de nuevos procesos de acción colectiva, como la Red Agroecológica Loja (RAL). Usando datos empíricos obtenidos de cuestionarios a hogares campesino (N = 116) y entrevistas en profundidad a informantes clave (N = 14), realizada entre diciembre de 2013 y marzo de 2014, analizamos el rol de los factores sociales e institucionales sobre la configuración del sistema agroalimentario integrando dentro del análisis los pilares de la soberanía alimentaria. Este análisis mostró el rol significativo, pero diferenciado, de las instituciones (Red Agroecológica Loja), grupos sociales (cultura indígena Saraguro) y las estrategias de generación de ingresos para dar lugar a la configuración del sistema agroalimentario local. Durante la tercera fase, evaluamos la vulnerabilidad vs resiliencia del sistema agroalimentario local mediante un proceso de análisis de escenarios participativos. Hemos analizado las futuras trayectorias de transformación del sistema agroalimentario local bajo múltiples conductores de cambio (de tipo ecológico, socio-económico y político) mediante el análisis de datos obtenidos a partir de entrevistas semi-estructuradas (N = 14 y N = 25) y dos talleres. Los actores locales visionaron cuatro posibles futuros escenarios. Nuestra evaluación muestra cómo los conductores de cambio afectan los diferentes componentes del sistema agroalimentario local cuando se lo conceptualiza como SES; y, cómo las diferentes perspectivas de los actores construyen diferentes trayectorias para la transformación activa del sistema. En general, los resultados del proceso de investigación enfatizan el rol que desempeñan los actores (entendido como un grupo interseccional donde el género se concibe a partir de su intersección con la etnicidad y la clase) y los nuevos arreglos de acción institucional para iniciar la transformación activa del sistema agroalimentario en los sectores marginales andinos. ; Postprint (published version)
Mención Internacional en el título de doctor ; Renewable energies are the leading alternative to fossil fuels, facing the constant threat of climate change. The development of these new resources has grown in the latest years, especially in the field of solar and wind energy. These renewable power sources have gathered a series of research challenges that, to this date, are still to be solved, with many contributions to this end in the last decade. The role of estimation and forecasting of solar energy is key to the development of the solar energy market, because it cheapens instrumentation costs and improve the efficiency of solar energy market participation in the power grid. The forecast of solar energy is fundamental to estimate costs and operational regulations of a solar plant, although the intermittence of solar energy makes this a difficult task. On the other hand, the estimation of solar irradiance can replace expensive measuring devices such as pyranometers or pyrheliometers; or the need of expert supervision on meteorological stations for cloud type classification. In order to improve estimation, two proposals are studied. The first approach to estimation is the automatic classification of clouds by including ceilometer information. This is a device capable of measuring height and thickness of a cloud, information that has never been applied to cloud classification. The next proposal is the estimation of irradiance by directly analyzing images with Convolutional Networks and multiple perspectives, a never before used technique for solar energy estimation. To improve forecasting the integration of prediction models is proposed. This technique compares and combines existing predictive models to obtain a final, more accurate, prediction. Although this is not a new approach, it has never been applied to various prediction models specialized in different horizons, or for short-term forecasting. Given that clouds produce the greatest interference between extraterrestial and surface irradiance, whole-sky cloud images are a valuable source of data for radiation estimation. To study the cloud type classification problem a Random Forest algorithm is employed. The algorithm is trained using information from cloud height and thickness, which is combined with camera im- 3 age features. Including cloud height and width proves to noticeably improve accuracy even when difficult to classify cloud types are included. Results for 10-class cloud classification, including multiple clouds in a single image, show 71.12%, an improvement over the 50.6% achieved without ceilometer information. This study shows the positive impact of ceilometer information in the cloud classification problem. Irradiance estimation can also be estimated directly from camera images. To face this problem various models have been created using convolutional neural networks, a Machine Learning technique fit for image recognition. Two approaches are proposed, a model with information from a single camera and a model with multiple sky perspectives. In addition to the common RGB colour channels used in image processing, two new channels are included: the distance from a pixel to the sun and the cloudy pixels of an image. Multiple perspectives improve noticeably all alternatives proposed, proving the contribution of the multi-view convolutional network proposed. There are many predictive models that predict with diverse capabilities at different predictive horizons. In this thesis, this process is called forecast integration (or blending). An integration model is proposed to blend four physical models from four meteorological stations at the south of the Iberian peninsula. Using support vector regression these are combined in a linear and non-linear way using the four predictors as inputs to machine learning. Two approaches are presented: a horizon approach that builds a model for each predictive horizon, and a general approach that builds a single prediction model for all horizons. In addition, a regional model is proposed, capable of of making predictions at a regional level instead of a station level. Results from integration are very positive compared with the baseline models for global and direct irradiance. Some absolute improvements reach 15% when comparing integration models to any predictor model when rRMSE and rMAE are evaluated on global and direct irradiance. At a regional level, there are also improvements, at an absolute 5% on global radiation over the predictor models and 10% for direct irradiance. The general approach is specially remarkable because, using a single model, it can obtain the best results on rMAE and match the results of other integration models on rRMSE. ; Las energías renovables son una importante alternativa a los combustibles fósiles ante el constante avance del cambio climático. El desarrollo de estos nuevos recursos se ha acelerado en los últimos años, especialmente en el campo de energía eólica y solar. Estas fuentes energéticas han atraído una serie de desafíos de investigación que siguen en progreso de ser resueltos, con numerosas contribuciones en la última década. La labor de estimación y predicción de energía solar es integral para el desarrollo del mercado energético, ya que permite abaratar costes instrumentales y mejorar la eficiencia de la penetración de la energía solar en la mezcla energética. La predicción de energía es fundamental en el mercado energético para estimar costes y regulaciones operativas de plantas solares, aunque la intermitencia de la energía solar hace que sea una tarea difícil. Por otro lado, la estimación de radiación solar permite reemplazar herramientas de alto coste como piranómetros y pirheliómetros; o la necesidad de expertos para detectar tipos de nube. Para la mejora de estimación se estudian dos propuestas diferentes. En primer lugar se trata de abordar el problema de clasificación de nubes, incluyendo información de ceilómetro. Esta es una herramienta que mide altura y anchura de una nube, cuyo uso nunca ha sido aplicado en la clasificación de nubes. La siguiente propuesta es la estimación de radiación directa a partir de imágenes, usando Redes Convolucionales y múltiples perspectivas, una técnica que nunca ha sido empleada para la estimación de energía solar. Para la mejora de la predicción de energía solar se propone la integración de modelos predictivos. Esta técnica consiste en la combinación de modelos predictivos existentes para obtener una predicción final mucho más precisa que las iniciales. Aunque esta no es una aproximación nueva, su exploración ha sido insuficiente para varios modelos especializados en distintos horizontes, o para predicción a corto plazo. Dado que las nubes producen el mayor impacto entre la radiación extraterrestre y la radiación que alcanza la superficie, las imágenes de nubes son una fuente de datos valiosa para la estimación de radiación. Para estudiar la clasificación del tipo de nube se emplea un algoritmo Random Forest entrenado con información sobre la altura y ancho de la nube, que se combina con estadísticos obtenidos a partir de imágenes. La información del ceilómetro permite mejorar notablemente los resultados incluso cuando se incluyen ejemplos de nube difíciles para expertos. Se logra predecir 10 tipos de nube con un 71.1% de precisión frente al 50.6% obtenido sin ceilómetro. Este estudio prueba que la inclusión de información del ceilómetro tiene un impacto muy positivo en los resultados. La estimación de radiación también se puede afrontar directamente a partir de las imágenes. Para tratar este problema se han creado varios modelos usando redes convolucionales apropiadas para el análisis de imágenes. Se proponen modelos que utilizan información proveniente de una sola cámara y otro modelo con múltiples perspectivas del cielo. Además de los canales habituales utilizados en el proceso de imágenes con redes convolucionales (RGB) se incluyen varios canales adicionales: la lejanía de los píxeles al sol y los píxeles que representan nubes. Las múltiples perspectivas y canales de información adicionales mejoran notablemente las alternativas propuestas, demostrando el aporte de la red convolucional multi-perspectiva propuesta. Existen multitud de modelos predictivos que ofrecen predicciones con capacidades diversas a distintos horizontes de predicción. En esta tesis, se propone un modelo integrador de cuatro modelos predictivos. Usando Maquinas de Vectores de Soporte para regresión se combinan de manera lineal y nolineal los cuatro predictores, utilizando como entradas al modelo las predicciones de los cuatro predictores. Se proponen dos aproximaciones, una por horizontes, construyendo un modelo para cada horizonte de predicción, y otra general, construyendo un modelo único para todos los horizontes. Los modelos han sido evaluados con datos procedentes de cuatro localizaciones al sur de la península ibérica. También se propone un modelo integrador regional, capaz de aportar predicciones a nivel regional en lugar de a nivel de estación. Los resultados de integración son muy positivos tanto para radiación global como directa, mostrando mejoras absolutas hasta del 15% frente a cualquier predictor tanto en rRMSE como en rMAE. A nivel regional también se obtienen mejoras del 5% para radiación global y del 10% para radiación directa. La aproximación general es especialmente destacable, haciendo uso de un único modelo, es capaz de obtener los mejores resultados en rMAE e igualar al resto de modelos de integración en rRMSE. ; This dissertation has been developed under the project PROSOL ENE2014-56126-C2 (Towards an integrated model for solar energy forecasting) in collaboration with the research group MATRAS (University of Jaen) and funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation (Spanish Government). All the data shown in this text has been provided by MATRAS and has been used with their permission. ; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ; Presidente: Pedro Isasi Viñuela.- Secretario: Esteban García Cuesta.- Vocal: Ricardo Simón Carbajo
This PHD has for objective to define a new concept: that of The maritime Cross-border Territory (MCBT) who differs from the concept of ground cross-border territory by the presence of the sea which modifies the dialectic opening/closure appropriate to these territories, the concept of "inter-coastal" territory because the border dialectic comes to overlap at the distance established by the sea and the concepts of Mediterranean as far as the maritime cross-border territories define themselves by their closeness on the border while the Mediterranean include distant spaces of more than thousands of kilometers of the border.To reach there the first part of the PHD decomposes into three chapters. The first one is dedicated to a reflection around the territorialisation of the sea because the MCBT is centered so geographically as humanely on the sea. Yet if this sea is similar to a no-man's-land it seems inconceivable to speak about MCBT. The second chapter returns to the definition of this concept and the questions which it lifts. A reflection around the association of the terms "sea and closeness" is led there : does the sea take away or does it move closer to the waterside populations? Finally the third chapter presents the cross-Channel, reserved space because it allows to produce new empirical data while testing the hypotheses. It also reveals the methodological protocol developed for the analysis of the MCBT, inspired by DI MÉO'S FSS and adapted to the specificities of these territories.The second part exposes the results obtained within the framework of the ground while keeping a comparative approach to differentiate well conceptually the MCBT of the concepts quoted previously. The fourth chapter is in connection with the practices of the space: observe Tone of specificities in these practices? Does closeness explains them? In what the motives for these flows contribute to the territorialisation of the space. The fifth chapter analyzes the representations of the space because the PHD positions itself in the field of the social and cultural geography. We question the otherness of the cross-Channel residents: have the French and English residents of this space seen in common a shared space? Finally the last chapter is dedicated to the institutionalization of the space. Indeed, the MCBT having no politico-administrative existence it is necessary that their actors cooperate and share a common vision of the space. So the concepts of cross-border cooperation and maritime cross-border governance were mobilized. A particular study was led around the cross-border twinnings and the relations which they maintain with the territorialisation of spaces.Throughout our work, the study of the interactions between the materiality, the immateriality and the institutionalization of the space was in the center of the reflection. The general questioning of the PHD also integrates the incidence of the maritimity on the constitution of a MCBT. Finally because of our territory of study it is important to think about the concept of insularity ; Cette thèse a pour objectif de définir un nouveau concept : celui de Territoire Transfrontalier Maritime (TTM) qui se différencie du concept de territoire transfrontalier terrestre par la présence de la mer qui modifie la dialectique ouverture/fermeture propre à ces territoires, du concept de territoire « inter-côtier » puisque la dialectique frontalière vient se superposer à la distance instaurée par la mer et des concepts de méditerranée dans la mesure où les territoires transfrontaliers maritimes se définissent par leur proximité à la frontière alors que les méditerranées comprennent des espaces distants de plusieurs milliers de kilomètres de la frontière.Pour y parvenir, la première partie de la thèse se décompose en trois chapitres. Le premier mène une réflexion autour de la territorialisation de la mer puisque les TTM sont centrés tant géographiquement qu'humainement sur la mer. Or si cette mer s'apparente à un no man's land il semble inconcevable de parler de TTM. Le second chapitre revient sur la définition de ce concept et les questions qu'il soulève. Une réflexion autour de l'association des termes « mer et proximité » y est conduite : la mer éloigne-t-elle ou rapproche-t-elle les populations riveraines ? Enfin le troisième chapitre présente l'espace transmanche, retenu car il permet de produire des données empiriques inédites tout en testant les hypothèses. Il dévoile aussi le protocole méthodologique élaboré pour l'analyse des TTM, inspiré de la FSS de Di Méo et adapté aux spécificités de ces territoires. La seconde partie expose les résultats obtenus dans le cadre du terrain tout en conservant une démarche comparative afin de bien différencier conceptuellement les TTM des concepts cités précédemment. Le quatrième chapitre est en lien avec les pratiques de l'espace : Observe-t-on des spécificités dans ces pratiques ? La proximité les explique-t-elle ? En quoi les motifs de ces flux contribuent-ils à la territorialisation de l'espace ? Le cinquième chapitre analyse les représentations de l'espace puisque la thèse se positionne dans le champ de la géographie sociale et culturelle. Nous questionnons l'altérité des résidents transmanche : les résidents français et anglais de cet espace ont-ils des visions communes d'un espace partagé ? Enfin le dernier chapitre est dédié à l'institutionnalisation de l'espace. En effet les TTM n'ayant pas d'existence politico-administrative il est nécessaire que leurs acteurs coopèrent et partagent une vision commune de l'espace. Ainsi les concepts de coopération transfrontalière et de gouvernance transfrontalière maritime sont mobilisés. Une étude particulière est menée autour des jumelages transfrontaliers et des relations qu'ils entretiennent avec la territorialisation des espaces. Tout au long de notre travail, l'étude des interactions entre la matérialité, l'immatérialité et l'institutionnalisation de l'espace est au centre de la réflexion. Le questionnement général de la thèse intègre aussi l'incidence de la maritimité sur la constitution d'un TTM. Enfin en raison de notre territoire d'étude il est important de réfléchir sur le concept d'insularité.
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Over the first weekend of August 2023, Saudi Arabia convened an international summit on the war in Ukraine. Held in Jeddah and attended by representatives from 40 countries As was widely expected, the meeting did not produce any breakthroughs. Still, it provided a golden opportunity for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) to position himself as a leader of what might be called a second "Non-Aligned Movement." This movement's growing influence owes much to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For while Moscow's assault had the unintended effect of revitalizing—and expanding—NATO, it also created an opening for many countries to leverage a multipolar international system in ways that have limited Washington's global power, not to mention its regional clout in the Middle East.
But these "balancing" efforts come with a high cost, as rising grain prices have threatened the stability of many of the very states that have thus far refused to condemn Russia's invasion, much less support Ukraine. For these states, the status quo is increasingly precarious, hence the wider logic of inviting China and the United States to sit a few short whispers away from their Saudi hosts at a meeting to which Russia was not invited.
China's Multi-Faceted Foreign Policy
From the outset, China has tried to advance a position of "neutrality" while echoing Russian President Vladimir Putin's justification for his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Beyond rhetoric, Beijing has provided economic support via its purchase of price-discounted Russian oil and, some experts argue, limited military assistance as well (a claim Beijing denies).
China's efforts to maintain these two tracks reflect structural tensions at the heart of China's global engagement. On the one hand, China is closely tied to a global economic order that is dominated by Western states and multilateral institutions. On the other hand, President Xi Jinping is seeking to counter U.S. military, economic, and even cultural power, and has done so in multiple ways, thus inviting conflict with the United States even as Beijing needs to cooperate with Washington and its Western allies. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which reportedly took Chinese leaders by surprise, created opportunities for China to flex its "counter-hegemonic" muscles, but also opened the door to economic and strategic threats that were likely to intensify absent a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict.
The tension between China's ideological and global economic interests extends well beyond the China-West arena. Many middle-sized regional powers such as India, Brazil, and South Africa share Beijing's desire to counter U.S. global dominance. But their policies are also rooted in the principle of state sovereignty and the rejection of the use of force to solve international conflicts. Beijing has long advocated these very norms and has given them pride of place in the charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, not to mention China's 12-point Ukraine peace proposal.
Thus its support for Russia has raised legitimate questions from many leaders about the rising humanitarian and economic costs of the war and Beijing's readiness to take credible steps to show that its Ukraine plan is not a mere diplomatic feint. The most important of these steps would be for Beijing to reduce its diplomatic support for Moscow.
Beijing's Jeddah Dance
From the outset of the Jeddah meeting China's delegate avoided suggesting that Beijing would endorse any particular proposal other than its own. Indeed, Special Representative Li Hui seemed to emphasize the limited goals of the meeting—and the conflicts animating its leading participants—when he declared, "We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles be shared."
Putting a more positive spin, a spokesperson for the Chinese government noted that, "China is willing to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine."
But what kind of solution? The outcome that China has outlined in its own 12-point proposal calls for respecting "the independence and territorial integrity of all countries" but also for a negotiated "political settlement" that could fudge or violate these principles. Thus, China is not ready to accept Ukraine's 10-point peace plan, which would require Russia's total withdrawal from all Ukrainian lands, including Crimea.
That Moscow has totally rejected this idea is not surprising; any hint by Putin that he might accept Ukraine's terms could undermine his rule. Moreover, as one expert has noted, "Ukraine's best-case scenario for the end of this war is also China's worst-case scenario," because Beijing wants Putin to remain in power while sustaining Russia's occupation until it is Ukraine that makes the key compromises.
It is inconceivable that China's envoy came to the Jeddah meeting believing that these various circles could be squared. Still, with the Ukraine conflict settling into what could be a prolonged war of attrition, and with Russia's suspension of its grain deal and its attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, China had to demonstrate concern for those states suffering from Moscow's policy of global blackmail.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy exploited China's unease when he noted that, "On issues such as food security, the fate of millions of people in Africa, Asia and other parts of the world directly depends on how fast the world moves to implement the peace formula." He was, of course, talking about Ukraine's own proposal, which China certainly did not back. Still, China's active presence in Jeddah presumably showed that it was ready to assume its responsibilities as a major global power that, in the words of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, had helped "to consolidate international consensus" on Ukraine.
Whatever the veracity of this claim, it is worth noting that on the second day of the Jeddah conference, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov insisted that the meeting was "a reflection of the West's attempt to continue futile, doomed efforts," but added that China could nevertheless "convey common sense to the Western patrons of Kyiv."
China did its best to avoid taking on the role of Moscow's messenger. Still, days after the Jeddah summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, reassured him that Beijing was committed to being an "objective and rational voice." That the week before the summit China had joined Russia in a naval exercise off the coast of Alaska that prompted the deployment of four U.S. Navy destroyers underscored the risky juggling act that is at the heart of Beijing's foreign policy.
A Win for MBS and Zelenskyy
The key participants in the Jeddah conference made good use of the multiple balls that Beijing has thus far kept in the air. Ukrainian officials declared that the meeting "completely destroys the narrative of Russia" that Ukraine was only backed by "countries of the collective West." Such hyperbole was as necessary as they were predictable. Indeed, while in the lead up to the meeting Ukrainian officials insisted that "our goal in Saudi Arabia is to develop a unified vision" ahead of a future global peace summit, the fact that no such vision emerged in Jeddah was almost irrelevant. What counted most was that the summit was held and that it ended, as the Ukrainian ambassador to Saudi Arabia pitched it, with "constructive" talks and "a broad vision." Jeddah was thus a win for Zelenskyy.
The same, of course, can be said for MBS. He may have not fully agreed when the Ukrainian ambassador thanked Saudi Arabia "for being so committed and hospitable to Ukraine in moving forward our peace formula plan." But the meeting signaled that the crown prince is on his way to rehabilitating his international reputation.
More broadly, as one leading Saudi journalist noted, the conference underscored Saudi Arabia's growing clout as a "neutral" mediator in a diverse group of states that constitute a kind of second Non-Aligned Movement whose members are leveraging the US-Russia-China triangle of conflict to advance their interests while maintaining good relations with all three countries.
For Riyadh, a key element in this juggling act is its unhappiness with being replaced by Russia as China's chief supplier of crude oil. This represents a real economic and political cost for MBS, who to the frustration of the Biden White House, has sustained the oil production cuts he initiated in Spring 2023.
In short, the Jeddah meeting gave Riyadh a practically risk-free opportunity to direct multiple signals in multiple directions. Thus, while the conference ended without any final declaration, Saudi officials held that the meeting contributed to "building common grounds that pave the way for peace." As for China, it has signaled its readiness to attend a follow-up meeting.
The Biden Administration (and China) Navigate Choppy Waters
While U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan went to the Jeddah conference, the administration's best bet was to let other participants, most importantly Ukraine's president, make their case and test China's intentions. That in the words of one unnamed U.S. official, the administration was "glad" that China attended and participated in the meeting "in a constructive way"— highlights the challenges that the administration faces as it navigates choppy diplomatic waters.
Those waters got a little rougher as the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — held a summit on summit on August 22 during which Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia were invited to join. If the decision shows that Russia and China are advancing their efforts to create an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and other Western dominated multi-lateral financial powerhouses, the expanded BRICS club includes not a few members who have concerns about the agenda of Moscow and China on a host of issues, including the Ukraine war.
That Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that Moscow looked forward to "an exchange of views" with the BRICS countries that attended the Jeddah meeting could suggest some unease in the Kremlin. For however determined to foster a multi-polar global system, major regional players such as Brazil and South Africa have no interest letting Moscow or China become the new arbiters of a counter hegemonic agenda. Speaking to the point, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned, "We have resisted pressure to align ourselves with any one of the global powers or with influential blocs of nations."
Vladimir Putin might ignore such sentiments, but Beijing's leaders cannot. Afterall, precisely because China is a real world economic and military power in ways that Russia will never be, it needs to find a path to engaging across the global spectrum. This balancing act has become harder with a struggling domestic economy, not to mention the efforts of the Biden White House to foster greater security cooperation in Asia — amply demonstrated by the recent US/South Korea/Japan Camp David summit.
Biden wisely insisted that the meeting was not "anti-China." Still, it is far from clear that this statement shows that the White House has forged a policy that fully takes into account the tensions that are at the heart of China's foreign relations — and that brought Beijing's emissary to Jeddah in the first place.
A version of this piece was published by Arab Center Washington DC. The views expressed in this publication are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
La tesi sviluppa il tema del processo all'imputato assente. Il presente lavoro trae spunto dalla riforma operata con la legge 28 aprile 2014, n. 67. Esso si prefigge l'obiettivo di analizzare, da un lato, il contenuto della nuova disciplina – sia sotto il profilo statico, sia sotto quello dinamico - con particolare riferimento all'imputato assente e all'irreperibile e, dall'altro lato, di verificare se il nuovo assetto normativo italiano possa dirsi conforme ai dicta sovranazionali. Il primo capitolo è dedicato allo studio delle fonti sovranazionali e alla ricostruzione degli status processuali connessi alla mancata presenza dell'imputato vigenti nell'ordinamento interno prima dell'entrata in vigore della riforma del 2014. In particolare, nella prima sezione, vengono analizzate le fonti internazionali (Nazioni Unite) ed "europee" (Consiglio d'Europa ed Unione Europea), oltre alla giurisprudenza della Corte Europea dei diritti dell'Uomo e del Comitato dei diritti umani dell'O.N.U. Viene illustrato il contenuto degli atti normativi e delle sentenze al fine di delineare le caratteristiche del processo all'assente così come emerge in sede sovranazionale. La seconda sezione è, invece, dedicata alla disciplina italiana pre-riforma. In essa vengono, in particolare, descritti gli istituti della contumacia e dell'assenza, nonché le problematiche ad essi connesse e le critiche che - in particolar modo a margine della contumacia - la dottrina aveva sollevato, per giungere alle figure dell'imputato latitante e dell'imputato irreperibile. Descritta la situazione previgente ed evidenziate criticità e proposte di riforma, si passa al secondo capitolo in cui vengono analizzati i profili statici della riforma. Si prendono, tra gli altri, in esame gli art. 420-bis - 420-quater c.p.p., individuando i presupposti applicativi sia della dichiarazione dell'assenza dell'imputato, sia della sospensione del processo per irreperibilità dell'imputato. Vengono inoltre analizzati i profili problematici: il rapporto tra conoscenza legale e conoscenza effettiva; le intersezioni tra consapevolezza e diritto ad una corretta informazione; la trasformazione del diritto ad essere informato in dovere di informarsi; nonché il difetto di coordinamento evidenziato dalla permanenza del termine "contumacia" – anche dopo la riforma – in alcuni ambiti dell'ordinamento processuale. Il capitolo si conclude con la valutazione della disciplina italiana alla luce dei precetti sovranazionali. Si passa poi, nel terzo capitolo, allo studio dei profili dinamici del processo in absentia, analizzandone l'iter in udienza preliminare - con particolare riferimento alla revoca dell'ordinanza dichiarativa dell'assenza - e in dibattimento. Lo studio prosegue con l'analisi delle impugnazioni, con particolare riguardo al giudizio di secondo grado, all'annullamento con rinvio della Corte di Cassazione e alla rescissione del giudicato. Il capitolo si conclude con l'esame della disciplina transitoria conseguente all'entrata in vigore della legge 28 aprile 2014, n. 67 e con il confronto tra i profili dinamici del processo in assenza dell'imputato e i dicta sovranazionali. Nel quarto capitolo, si analizzano le ricadute che la riforma del processo in absentia manifesta su delle specifiche branche del sistema processuale. In particolare, si prendono in esame gli effetti derivanti dall'abolizione della contumacia e della conseguente introduzione della figura dell'assente e dell'irreperibile sul processo penale a carico degli enti, sul processo dinanzi al Tribunale per i Minorenni, sul giudizio dinanzi al giudice di pace e sul processo penale militare. Il quarto capitolo si conclude con un'analisi dei riflessi che la legge 28 aprile 2014, n. 67 ha avuto sulla cooperazione giudiziaria in materia penale, con specifico riferimento all'estradizione, al mandato d'arresto europeo e al reciproco riconoscimento delle sentenze. ; The topic of this thesis is the trial in absentia. The starting point of the analysis is the reform introduced with Act 28 April 2014, No. 67. The objective of the thesis is to analyse the content of the new rules – from both the static and the dynamic point of view - with special reference to defendants who fail to appear and those who are untraceable- and to assess whether the new Italian legislation complies with supranational dicta. The first chapter contains a review of supranational sources and the description of the procedural status deriving from non-appearance of the defendant as defined in the Italian legislation before the entry into force of the reform in 2014. Specifically, in the first section, I analyse the international (United Nations) and "European" (Council of Europe and European Union) sources, as well as the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and the Human Rights Committee of the United Nations. I describe the content of the legislation and court decisions in order to identify the characteristics of the trial in absentia as specified at the supranational level. The second section focuses on Italian legislation before the reform. Here I specifically describe the institutions of "contumacia" [non-appearance without legitimate impediment] and "assenza" [defendant waiving the right to be present], as well as the related issues and the objections - in particular those concerning "contumacia" - levelled by the jurisprudence, to arrive to the case of the defendant who wilfully absconds and the one who is untraceable. After describing the pre-existing situation and pointing out problems and reform proposals, in the second chapter I analyse the static aspects of the reform. I review, among others, art. 420-bis to 420-quater of the Code of Criminal Procedure, identifying the conditions for the application of the declaration of non-appearance by the defendant and the suspension of the trial when the defendant is untraceable. The problematic aspects are also analysed: the relationship between legal and actual information; the overlap of awareness and right to be properly informed; the transformation of the right to be informed in duty to become informed; and the lack of consistency shown by the continued use of the term "contumacia" in some parts of the procedural system, even after the reform. The chapter ends with an assessment of the Italian legislation in the light of the supranational rules. In the third chapter, I then review the dynamic aspects of the trial in absentia, analysing its iter at the preliminary hearing - particularly with regard to the revocation of the declaration of non-appearance - and at the trial. This is followed by an analysis of the appellate process, particularly with regard to the judgement of second instance, the nullification with judicial review of the Court of Cassation, the highest appeal court in Italy, and the breach of res iudicata. The chapter ends with an analysis of the transitory rules applied after the entry into force of Act 28 April 2014, No. 67, and with the comparison of the dynamic aspects of the trial in absentia with the supranational dicta. In the fourth chapter, I analyse the repercussions of the reform of the trial in absentia on some specific areas of the procedural system. Specifically, I review the effects of the elimination of the concept of "contumacia", and the resulting introduction of the categories of the non-appearing and untraceable defendant, on criminal trials against organisations, trials in the Tribunale per i Minorenni (the Italian Youth Court), judgements by the Giudice di pace (Justice of the Peace), and military criminal trials. The fourth chapter ends with an analysis of the implications of Act 28 April 2014, No. 67 on judicial cooperation in criminal law issues, with specific reference to extraditions, European arrest warrant, and reciprocal recognition of judgements.
The PGC was funded by National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Grant Nos. MH085520 (to PFS) and MH080403. Statistical analyses were carried out on the Genetic Cluster Computer (http://www. geneticcluster.org) hosted by SURFsara and financially supported by the Netherlands Scientific Organization Grant No. NWO 480-05-003 (to D. Posthuma) and the department of Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam along with a supplement from the Dutch Brain Foundation. The Bonn/Mannheim GWAS was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the Integrated Genome Research Network Systematic Investigation of the Molecular Causes of Major Mood Disorders and Schizophrenia Grant Nos. 01GS08144 and 01GS08147, under the auspices of the National Genome Research Network plus, and through the Integrated Network Integrated Understanding of Causes and Mechanisms in Mental Disorders, under the auspices of the e:Med Programme Grant Nos. 01ZX1314A and 01ZX1314G. The Bonn/Mannheim GWAS was also supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) Grant Nos. FOR2107, RI908/11-1, and NO246/10-1. The GenRED GWAS project was supported by NIMH R01 Grant Nos. MH061686 (to DFL), MH059542 (to W.H. Coryell), MH075131 (W.B. Lawson), MH059552 (JBP), MH059541 (W.A. Scheftner), and MH060912 (MMW). Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry MARS study was supported by the BMBF Program Molecular Diagnostics: Validation of Biomarkers for Diagnosis and Outcome in Major Depression by Grant No. 01ES0811. Genotyping was supported by the Bavarian Ministry of Commerce, and the BMBF in the framework of the National Genome Research Network by Grant Nos. NGFN2 and NGFN-Plus, FKZ 01GS0481 and 01GS08145. The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety and the Netherlands Twin Register contributed to Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN)-MDD and to MDD2000. Funding for NTR/NESDA was from the following: the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (MagW/ZonMW Grant Nos. 904-61-090, 985-10-002, 904-61-193, 480-04004, 400-05-717, 912-100-20; Spinozapremie Grant No. 56-464-14192; Geestkracht program Grant No. 10-000-1002); the Center for Medical Systems Biology (NWO Genomics), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure, Vrije Universiteit's Institutes for Health and Care Research and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, BIC/BioAssist/RK (Grant No. 2008.024); the European Science Foundation (Grant No. EU/QLRT-200101254); the European Community's Seventh Framework Program (Grant No. FP7/2007-2013); ENGAGE (Grant No. HEALTH-F4-2007-201413); and the European Science Council (Grant No. ERC 230374). Genotyping was funded in part by the GAIN of the Foundation for the US National Institutes of Health, and analysis was supported by grants from GAIN and the NIMH (Grant No. MH081802). Funding for the QIMR samples was provided by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant Nos. 241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496675, 496739, 552485, 552498, 613602, 613608, 613674, 619667), the Australian Research Council (Grant Nos. FT0991360, FT0991022), the FP-5 GenomEUtwin Project (Grant No. QLG2-CT-2002-01254), and the US National Institutes of Health (Grant Nos. AA07535, AA10248, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AA14041, MH66206, DA12854, DA019951), and the Center for Inherited Disease Research (Baltimore, MD). RADIANT was funded by the following: a joint grant from the UK Medical Research Council and GlaxoSmithKline (Grant No. r G0701420); the National Institute for Health Research Specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health at the South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust and the Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London; the UK Medical Research Council (Grant No. G0000647), and the Marie Curie Industry-Academia Partnership and Pathways (Grant No. 286213). The GENDEP study was funded by a European Commission Framework 6 grant (EC Contract Ref.: LSHB-CT2003- 503428). Genotyping of STAR* D was supported by NIMH Grant No. MH072802 (to SPH). STAR* D was funded by NIMH Grant No. N01MH90003 to the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (to A.J. Rush). The CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study was supported by research grants from GlaxoSmithKline, the Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne, and the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 3200B0-105993, 3200B0-118308, 33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30-148401) and two grants from GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics. SHIP is part of the Community Medicine Research net of the University of Greifswald, Germany, which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant Nos. 01ZZ9603, 01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403), the Ministry of Cultural Affairs, and the Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. Genome-wide data have been supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant No. 03ZIK012) and a joint grant from Siemens Healthcare, Erlangen, Germany, and the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. SHIP-LEGEND is funded by the DFG (Grant No. GR 1912/5-1). The TwinGene study was supported by the Swedish Ministry for Higher Education, the Swedish Research Council (Grant No. M-2005-1112), GenomEUtwin (Grant Nos. EU/QLRT2001-01254,QLG2-CT-2002-01254), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research and the US National Institutes of Health (Grant No. U01 DK066134). The collection of PRISME control subjects and genotyping of the 883 Danish control subjects was supported by grants from The Danish Strategic Research Council, The Stanley Research Foundation, and H. Lundbeck A/S. The Muenster Depression cohorts were supported by the European Union (Grant No. N Health-F2-2008-222963) and by grants from the DFG (Grant Nos. FOR 2107 and DA1151/5-1 [ to UD]), Innovative Medizinische Forschung of the Medical Faculty of Munster (Grant Nos. DA120903, DA111107, and DA211012 [ all to UD]). Generation Scotland is supported by a Wellcome Trust Strategic Award "Stratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally" (Reference No.: 104036/Z/14/Z) and core support from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates (Grant No. CZD/16/6) and the Scottish Funding Council (Grant No. HR03006).r The NIMH Cell Repository at Rutgers University and the NIMH Center for Collaborative Genetic Studies on Mental Disorders made essential contributions to this project. Genotyping was carried out by the Broad Institute Center for Genotyping and Analysis with support from Grant No. U54 RR020278 (which partially subsidized the genotyping of the GenRED cases). Collection and quality control analyses of the control dataset were supported by grants from NIMH and the National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia and Depression.r We acknowledge the contributions of Dr. George S Zubenko and Dr. Wendy N Zubenko, Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, to the GenRED I project. We are grateful to Knowledge Networks (Menlo Park, CA) for assistance in collecting the control dataset. We express our profound appreciation to the families who participated in this project, and to the many clinicians who facilitated the referral of participants to the study. We thank the twins and their families registered at the Australian Twin Registry for their participation in the many studies that have contributed to this research. We thank V. Mooser, G. Weaber, and P. Vollenweider who initiated the CoLaus project. We express our gratitude to the Lausanne inhabitants who volunteered to participate in the PsyCoLaus study. We would like to acknowledge the PRISME-study group, Denmark, for collection of the PRISME samples. We thank David M. Hougaard, Section of Neonatal Screening and Hormones, Statens Serum Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Preben Bo Mortensen, National Centre for Register-based Research, Aarhus University, Denmark; Merete Nordentoft, Mental Health Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark; and The Lundbeck Foundation Initiative for Integrative Psychiatric Research, iPSYCH, Denmark. Funding from the BBSRC and MRC is gratefully acknowledged.r Data used in the preparation of this article were obtained from the Genetic and Environmental Risk for Alzheimer's disease (GERAD1) Consortium. As such, the investigators within the GERAD1 consortia contributed to the design and implementation of GERAD1 and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report.r SS, HS, KS, and TET are employees of deCODE Genetics/Amgen. VA received funds from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, from the European Union (FP 7), and from the Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Research Munster, and he has served on the advisory boards of, or has given presentations on behalf of the following companies: Astra-Zeneca, Janssen-Organon, Lilly, Lundbeck, Servier, Pfizer, Otsuka, and Trommsdorff. BTB has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and honoraria from Lundbeck, BristolMeyers Squibb, Sanofi, Servier, Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer. IJD is supported by the MRC-BBSRC, Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (Grant No. MR/K026992/1). HJG has received funding from German Research Foundation and Federal Ministry of Education and Research Germany and speakers honoraria from Eli Lilly and Servier. CH acknowledges support from the Medical Research Council (MRC) and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). DJM is supported by an , funded by the Chief Scientist Office. AMM is supported by a Scottish Funding Council Senior Clinical Fellowship and by the Dame Theresa and Mortimer Sackler Foundation and has received research support from Pfizer, Janssen, and Lilly. CMM was supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Grant No. NOW VENI 916-76-125). BM- M has consulted for Affectis Pharmaceuticals. MP has served on the advisory boards of Lundbeck and Eli Lilly ; BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a disabling mood disorder, and despite a known heritable component, a large meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies revealed no replicable genetic risk variants. Given prior evidence of heterogeneity by age at onset in MDD, we tested whether genome-wide significant risk variants for MDD could be identified in cases subdivided by age at onset. METHODS: Discovery case-control genome-wide association studies were performed where cases were stratified using increasing/decreasing age-at-onset cutoffs; significant single nucleotide polymorphisms were tested in nine independent replication samples, giving a total sample of 22,158 cases and 133,749 control subjects for subsetting. Polygenic score analysis was used to examine whether differences in shared genetic risk exists between earlier and adult-onset MDD with commonly comorbid disorders of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, Alzheimer's disease, and coronary artery disease. RESULTS: We identified one replicated genome-wide significant locus associated with adult-onset (.27 years) MDD (rs7647854, odds ratio: 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 1.11–1.21, p 5 5.2 3 10-11). Using polygenic score analyses, we show that earlier-onset MDD is genetically more similar to schizophrenia and bipolar disorder than adult-onset MDD. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that using additional phenotype data previously collected by genetic studies to tackle phenotypic heterogeneity in MDD can successfully lead to the discovery of genetic risk factor despite reduced sample size. Furthermore, our results suggest that the genetic susceptibility to MDD differs between adult- and earlier-onset MDD, with earlier-onset cases having a greater genetic overlap with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. ; United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) MH085520 MH080403 ; SURFsara ; Netherlands Scientific Organization NWO 480-05-003 ; Department of Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ; Dutch Brain Foundation ; Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01GS08144 01GS08147 ; National Genome Research Network plus, and through the Integrated Network Integrated Understanding of Causes and Mechanisms in Mental Disorders ; e:Med Programme 01ZX1314A 01ZX1314G ; German Research Foundation (DFG) FOR2107 RI908/11-1 NO246/10-1 ; United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) MH061686 MH059542 MH075131 MH059552 MH059541 MH060912 ; Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01ES0811 ; Bavarian Ministry of Commerce ; Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) NGFN2 NGFN-Plus FKZ 01GS0481 01GS08145 ; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (MagW/ZonMW) 904-61-090 985-10-002 904-61-193 480-04004 400-05-717 912-100-20 ; Spinozapremie 56-464-14192 ; Geestkracht program 10-000-1002 ; Center for Medical Systems Biology (NWO Genomics) ; Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure ; Vrije Universiteit's Institutes for Health and Care Research and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam ; BIC/BioAssist/RK 2008.024 ; European Science Foundation (ESF) EU/QLRT-200101254 ; European Union (EU) FP7/2007-2013 ; ENGAGE HEALTH-F4-2007-201413 ; European Science Council ERC 230374 ; United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA ; GAIN ; United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) MH081802 MH072802 N01MH90003 ; National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia 241944 339462 389927 389875 389891 389892 389938 442915 442981 496675 496739 552485 552498 613602 613608 613674 619667 ; Australian Research Council FT0991360 FT0991022 ; FP-5 GenomEUtwin Project QLG2-CT-2002-01254 ; United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA AA07535 AA10248 AA13320 AA13321 AA13326 AA14041 MH66206 DA12854 DA019951 U01 DK066134 ; Center for Inherited Disease Research (Baltimore, MD) ; UK Medical Research Council and GlaxoSmithKline G0701420 ; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) ; Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust ; Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London ; Medical Research Council UK (MRC) G0000647 ; European Union (EU) 286213 ; European Commission Framework 6 grant (EC) LSHB-CT2003- 503428 ; GlaxoSmithKline ; Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne ; Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) 3200B0-105993 3200B0-118308 33CSCO-122661 33CS30-139468 33CS30-148401 ; GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics ; Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01ZZ9603 01ZZ0103 01ZZ0403 03ZIK012 ; Ministry of Cultural Affairs ; Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania ; Siemens Healthcare, Erlangen, Germany ; German Research Foundation (DFG) GR 1912/5-1 FOR 2107 DA1151/5-1 ; Swedish Ministry for Higher Education ; Swedish Research Council M-2005-1112 ; GenomEUtwin QLG2-CT-2002-01254 EU/QLRT2001-01254 ; Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research ; Danske Strategiske Forskningsrad (DSF) ; Stanley Research Foundation ; European Union (EU) N Health-F2-2008-222963 ; Innovative Medizinische Forschung of the Medical Faculty of Munster DA120903 DA111107 DA211012 ; Wellcome Trust Strategic Award "Stratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally" 104036/Z/14/Z ; Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates CZD/16/6 ; Scottish Funding Council HR03006 ; Broad Institute Center for Genotyping and Analysis U54 RR020278 ; NARSAD ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) ; Medical Research Council UK (MRC) ; Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) ; Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Research Munster ; National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia ; MRC-BBSRC, Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative MR/K026992/1 ; German Research Foundation (DFG) ; Federal Ministry of Education ; Research Germany and speakers honoraria from Eli Lilly and Servier ; Medical Research Council UK (MRC) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) ; NRS Career Fellowship - Chief Scientist Office ; Scottish Funding Council Senior Clinical Fellowship ; Dame Theresa and Mortimer Sackler Foundation ; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) NOW VENI 916-76-125 ; Lundbeckfonden R155-2014-1724 ; Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/K026992/1 MC_PC_U127561128 1292844 ; Chief Scientist Office CZD/16/6/4
Throughout the past two decades there has been a resurgence of the concern with the rise of new great powers and its thematic cousin, American hegemony's challenges and challengers (a resurgence that must be seen, of course, as relative to the static preoccupations of Cold War/bipolar International Relations theory). However, scholarly production has not been particularly enlightening. Not because the subject there considered is unimportant. On the contrary, rises and declines –be it of states, empires, civilizations, inter alia- and the potential to restructure world politics inherent to preeminent or hegemonic political units are powerful engines in international relations. This is why a critique of the epistemological, methodological and empirical aspects of this literature and a quest for more productive avenues of research is necessary.Neither a comprehensive critique of the literature nor a complete proposal for an alternative research project can be the goal of the present short essay. For the time being it will suffice to open some paths of discussion by way of putting forward certain challenges to this literature and sketching some notes (in a not un-Gramscian way) on alternative paths of research.By now the reader might reasonably be wondering what does Gramsci has to do with all this. Gramsci's concept of hegemony, but also his ideas on war of position vs. war of movement and passive revolution could eventually be employed, I will argue, as one of the building-blocks of, as Gramsci would have expressed it himself, a counter-hegemonic narrative on the phenomenon of the rise and fall of great powers and international hegemony. (1) A note on the use of Gramsci: As with most of the work of the Italian Marxist, coming up with a circumscribed definition for these critical concepts and ideas is an arduous, and probably unfruitful exercise. The Prison Notebooks, (2) Gramsci's magnum opus, is in itself just notes; ideas dispersed in short chapters that do not claim to be a coherent project (at least in the way we tend to think the argumentative organization of books). Thus Gramsci's own work allows for a not rigidly structured use of his ideas (e.g. there is no need to follow him all the way down in his unorthodox Marxism). Even more, one of the central points of Gramscian thought centers around the notion of a pragmatic understanding of theory. In other words, the search for a "real theoretical truth" is not nearly as relevant as the search for a "useful truth". With this spirit is that I approach the issues of hegemony and rise and fall with the Prison Notebooks behind the arm.* * * * * * The most diffused argument on the rise and decline of the great powers (3) can be summarized, grosso modo –and avoiding existing differences between schools and theorists- as following: the international system, against what balance of power theorists would argue, tends to have a hegemonic power (Spain in the 16th centuries, Portugal in the 17th century, the Netherlands in the second half of the 18th century, Great Britain in the 19th and beginnings of the 20th century, and, from then on, the United States) that establishes a certain international order. But the system is not immutable, the difference in the rates of growth between states will generate competitors to the hegemon, which, if dissatisfied with the present order, will try to bring it down (4) -even if this entails the use of force (i.e. a hegemonic war, in the words of Raymond Aron). (5) Not surprisingly, and in some ways understandably, the literature has an obsession with transition periods and war. In social scientific terms then, the whole phenomenon of rising and declining ends up as the explanandum to explicate the explanans (i.e. transition and war). By doing this it obscures an array of phenomena that cannot be studied in a dichotomy of hegemon and challenger. Methodological and empirical issues (e.g. How do we measure power? Is economic rise a sufficient cause for a change in the system? How many cases are historically relevant? etc.) are part of the problem (more on these difficulties below). Moreover, this approach seems to be propelled by an anxiety generated by the prospect that there will be no huge transformations in the world. In the words of John Gray: "paranoia is a protest against unimportance." (6) In Gramscian vocabulary: people need to think they are living in changing "epochal" times (especially academics that make a living out of "explaining and predicting" these "epochal changes"). The result has been an anxious expectation for the arrival of a challenger to the hegemon and the plausibility of a hegemonic conflict in the process of transition. First came the USSR from the 1950s to the 1970s. When the Soviets proved to be a pathetic challenger, the time came for Japan, the "rising sun." Japan's challenge was dismissed before the end of the 20th century. However, this was not a cause of distress for students of power transitions, now they had China.As I have showed elsewhere, (7) serious contemplation cannot but conclude that there is little use for the kind of futurology contest that this literature has turned into. Of course, the central question then is: acknowledging that this is a topic that should be seriously studied, how can the discipline go forward?Diversifying the questions we have been asking is one way. For example, the problématique should be not so much what will happen when a state rises, or even which are the states currently rising, but why have so many states failed to rise -a necessary(!) counterpart to understand the deep reasons for "successful" rises. Working on the "rise of the West" in a comparative-civilizational line, Jack Goldstone comments on the tendency to uncritically accept a "winner" bias: "Because all too often, we view world history in terms of 'winners' and 'losers,' elevate to prominence much in the 'winners'' history, and obscure or lose sight of similar items in the history of retrospective 'losers'." (8) Until we have a good grasp of why the great-powers-that-could-have-been -or as I call it elsewhere, "failed rises"- (9) follow different trajectories from those considered "successful" rises (while sharing similar departure points) our understanding of rises, declines and hegemony will stay worryingly incomplete.On the other hand, increasing the complexity in the concept of hegemony (and thus, of power) promises to be a profitable enterprise. And here is where Gramsci enters the scene.The most convincing Gramscian in International Relations theory has defined the Italian's concept of hegemony in the following way:"Antonio Gramsci used the concept of hegemony to express a unity between objective material forces and ethico-political ideas in Marxian terms, a unity of structure and superstructure- in which power based on dominance over production is rationalized through an ideology incorporating compromise or consensus between dominant and subordinate groups…. A hegemonial structure of world order is one in which power takes a primarily consensual form…"(10) One of Gramsci's biggest challenges was how to devise the creation of a new hegemony in Western Europe –that is, an alternative to western capitalism/democracy. The classical methods of frontal and violent attack, essence of the Russian Revolution, or what Gramsci calls "war of movement," were of no use in the West. While it was just a government that the Bolsheviks had to overthrow in order to install a new regime, the proto-Modern Princes (i.e. Communist Parties) in Western Europe would have to confront a much more robust complex represented in the formula "civil society plus state." In this context a "war of position" would be the best option. The core of this notion is that, confronted to such a resilient organization, one must win the battle from within; create a new hegemony before taking power. According to Gramsci: "A social group can and indeed must, already 'lead' before winning governmental power (this indeed is one of the principal conditions for the winning of such power)"(p. 47, Prison Notebooks). A simple power battle -a new October 1917- was not enough. This is why Cox talks about a "consensual form" and the primacy of ideology.Going from mainstream IR "thin" to a "thicker" version of hegemony (using Geertzian concepts in a slightly unorthodox way) would problematize the issue of rises and declines in interesting ways.To begin with, the preeminent place currently occupied in the literature by rates of growth would seem laughable to Gramsci. (11) Both in the analysis/futurology of possible challengers to US hegemony and for the more general dynamics of rises and declines -see especially the libraries of (naïve?) scholarly and journalistic production on the so-called "BRICS". Even if these trajectories of growth could be accurately predicted (a dubious assumption), inferring a new international historic bloc or a new great powers configuration would depend on a leap of faith. Extrapolating Gramsci's historicism, it could be argued that an essentially material account of power might have been plausible during, let's say, Habsburg preeminence in the 16th and part of the 17th centuries. This has not been the case for a long time. Just as Gramsci devised a qualitative change in European politics, in which civil-society/state and ideas/material-forces were inevitably intertwined, there is case to make that the present international order is too complex to be seen just through ratios of economic growth and other material variables. (12) A counter-hegemon would need to do much more than surpass the US materially (however this is defined). But the point is also that the general phenomenon of the rise of great powers is likewise much more complex than devising future scenarios under the bewilderment generated by the BRIC's growth rates. Several paths follow the critique of "thin" hegemony. One is to give a more relevant place to discourse, recognition and legitimacy. Achieving great power status or building a hegemonic order is in many ways a discursive affair. In the 19th century recognition as a great power might have been identified by, inter alia, studying who participated in the diplomatic arena as a legitimate great power –e.g. who was sitting as a peer at the table during the Congress of Vienna. This discursive dynamic is probably more complex nowadays –e.g. who is identified in the cover of the Economist as "rising"- but is still an essential element and it should be studied carefully.(13) In a word, achieving a certain status in world politics is not the automatic effect of material variations but the recognition by an Other(s) that a political unit has become part of a particular club or class because, among other things, such a variation in material capabilities has occurred. This mutual empowerment aspect could also be useful in explaining the aforementioned phenomenon of "failed rises" (the development of this idea, however, must be saved for another occasion).It should be clear that this is also a call to historicize the sources of power. Since, as Gramsci assumed, hegemony –but any order in general- changes its basic attributes and dynamics with time, likewise the variables that explain how agents interact with those structures should also change. Social scientists tend to be weak against the temptation to over-generalize; a Gramscian outlook could work as an antidote to the follies inherent in the excesses committed in the name of social scientific "laws."Another interesting possibility lies in the elucidation of the resilience American hegemony seems to be presenting. Neorealism has been left in an uncomfortable place under the unwillingness of American preeminence to give place to a multipolar or bipolar world (since unipolarity is an anomaly for neorealist theory). A "thick" notion of hegemony would help explain this. Even if material change is continuously going on, "thick" hegemony, as explained before, does not depend exclusively on it. There is an ideological aspect that reinforces path dependence trajectories that might turn hegemony more resilient even when the US might be losing ground in terms of its material preeminence (this could be paired with neoliberalism's focus on institutions as central to an hegemon and its order). Hegemonic path dependence does not mean that we have arrived to the "end of History and the last Hegemony", to paraphrase an excessively well-known title. It is, however, an acknowledgment that change in international politics is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon.* * * * * * It is certainly possible that one day –probably a long time from now- China will replace the US as the most powerful state, eventually –but not necessarily- building a new international order. It is also possible that the "BRICS" (or any other creation from the armies of acronym-chasers) will rise to great power status conforming a multipolar world. The problem is that it is also very possible that 30 years from now no one will remember the "rise of China" or the "rise of the BRICS." These are unknowns we cannot escape. As with "Japan's rise" in the 1980s, the infinite paper, ink, and time wasted could end up in the most embarrassing dustbin in the history of the discipline. This should not be interpreted as a call to stop studying these dynamics, but as an emphatic request to critically think about the best way(s) to do this. Though engaging in futurology is definitely the correct approach if the goal is selling books and being published in well-known journals, I argue that the best way to do this if the purpose is building knowledge is: a) increasing the complexity in the use of variables and concepts such as power, hegemony, rise and decline, etc. b) avoiding a "winner bias" and understanding the cases of "failed rises", c) historicizing structural dynamics and properties and the sources that explain how agents interact with those structures, d) engaging with history in the search for clues on how to think about the present and not in an attempt to come up with historical "laws", e) finally, and probably the most important, accepting the complex nature of profound change in international politics instead of escaping to the triteness of futurology that rather than educating fosters misunderstanding. (1) This is not an unprecedented line of work. There is a substantive body of scholarly work on Gramscian IPE. It must be said, however, that I will not attempt to engage in a rigorous Gramscian analysis of international relations, but just use some of his ideas as building blocks.(2) Gramsci, Antonio, Selections From the Prison Notebooks, International Publishers, New York, 2010.(3) See: Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1981; Organski, A.F.K. and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago University Press, 1980; and Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Vintage, 1989.(4) Though some argue that it is the fear of the hegemon to lose its current position that brings about hegemonic war.(5) Nota bene: Aron worked on the concept of hegemonic war as part of his studies on "total war", and not in the transition framework. This point is pertinent since he should not be included in the group of scholars conforming this literature –being his oeuvre of a sophistication and scope not matched by them.(6) Interview at The Browser, available online: http://thebrowser.com/interviews/john-gray-on-critiques-utopia-and-apocalypse(7) Castro, Guzmán, "Measuring the Future: Rises, Failed Power Transitions and the Problem of Systemic Change," unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2011.(8) Goldstone, Jack, "The Rise of the West – or Not? A Revision to Socio-economic History", Sociological Theory, 18:2, July 2000.(9) Castro, Guzmán, "The (Intellectual) Costs of Hegemony: Hegemonic Bias and the Poverty of the Theories of Systemic Change," unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2012.(10) Robert Cox cited in Keohane, After Hegemony, Princeton University Press, 1984, p. 44.(11) See here to laugh with Gramsci.(12) Gramsci is clear on this: "The analysis of these propositions tends, I think, to reinforce the conception of historic bloc in which precisely material forces are the content and ideologies are the form, though this disctintion between form and content has purely didactic value, since the material forces would be inconceivable historically without form and the ideologies would be individual fancies without the material forces" (p. 377).(13) There is some encouraging new work on the subject. See: Zarakol, Ayse, After Defeat: How the East Learned to Live with the West, Cambridge UP, 2011, and Suzuki Shogo, "Seeking 'Legitimate' Great Power Status in Post-Cold War International Society: China's and Japan's Participation in UNPKO," International Relations, 2008 22: 45.Sobre el autorProfessor, Ph.D. student.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Pennsylvania.
Purpose: to analyze the situation of the external control of municipal accounts in the state of Pará in relation to timeliness of information and its relation to the democratic process in the sense of accountability. Methodology: The research was developed with the support of the stakeholder theory, classified as exploratory, descriptive of quantitative approach. An exploratory investigation supported the investigated subject, starting from the cataloging of the 144 municipalities that form the state of Pará, with consolidated accounts. Using the empirical-analytical method, a longitudinal database of nine consecutive years was formed from 2008 to 2016. The data were collected on the website of the Court of Accounts of the Municipalities of the State of Pará (TCM / PA). The variable of analysis was the time spent by the court to render decisions on municipal accounts. Results: The findings revealed that the 146 municipalities delivered a total of 2,330 accounts in the period from 2008 to 2016, and only 600 cases were appreciated. Between the protocol date and the TCM / PA decision presented a median of four and a maximum of eight years. Contributions of the Study: The research contributes to the dissemination of information on the timeliness of assessments of municipal public accounts by the courts of accounts. For information to have utility to users it should be timely. The fact that the control of the courts of accounts happens a posteori, timing becomes relevant because it deals with information necessary to democracy. According to Melo, Pereira and Figueiredo (2009), government institutions with the purpose to control the acts of public power have attracted, in the last decades, a greater attention of society. Pinho and Sacramento (2009), investigating accountability in Brazil, demonstrate that society has participated more actively in the control of government actions in the last 20 years. ; Objetivo: analizar la situación del control externo de las cuentas municipales, en el estado de Pará, en relación a la tempestividad de la información y su relación con el proceso democrático en el sentido de la accountability. Metodología: La investigación fue desarrollada con soporte de la teoría de los stakeholders, clasificada como exploratoria, descriptiva de abordaje cuantitativo. Una investigación exploratoria soportó el asunto investigado, partiendo de la catalogación de los 144 municipios que forman el estado de Pará, con prestaciones de cuentas consolidadas. Con el método empírico-analítico se formó un banco de datos longitudinal de nueve años consecutivos de 2008 a 2016. Los datos fueron recolectados en el sitio electrónico del Tribunal de Cuentas de los Municipios del Estado de Pará (TCM / PA). La variable de análisis fue el tiempo empleado por el tribunal para dictar decisiones sobre las cuentas municipales. Resultados: Los hallazgos revelaron que los ciento cuarenta y cuatro municipios entregaron el total de 2.330 cuentas en el período de 2008 a 2016 y sólo 600 procesos fueron apreciados. Entre la fecha de protocolo y la decisión del TCM / PA presentó mediana de cuatro y, máximo de ocho años. Contribuciones del Estudio: La investigación contribuye a la diseminación de información sobre la evaluación de las cuentas públicas municipales por los tribunales de cuentas. Para que la información tenga utilidad a los usuarios deberá ser temprana. El hecho del control de los tribunales de cuentas ocurrir a la postem, la tempestividad gana relevancia por tratar de informaciones necesarias a la democracia. Conforme a Melo, Pereira y Figueiredo (2009) las instituciones gubernamentales de control de los actos del poder público han atraído en las últimas décadas una mayor atención de la sociedad. Pino y Sacramento (2009) investigando accountability en Brasil demuestran que la sociedad, en los últimos 20 años, ha participado más activamente en el control de las acciones gubernamentales. ; Objetivo: analisar a situação do controle externo das contas municipais, no estado do Pará, em relação a tempestividade da informação e sua relação com o processo democrático no sentido da accountability. Metodologia: A pesquisa foi desenvolvida com suporte da teoria dos stakeholders, classificada como exploratória, descritiva de abordagem quantitativa. Uma investigação exploratória suportou o assunto investigado, partindo da catalogação dos 144 municípios que formam o estado do Pará, com prestações de contas consolidadas. Usando o método empírico- analítico formou-se um banco de dados longitudinal de nove anos consecutivos de 2008 a 2016. Os dados foram coletados no sítio eletrônico do Tribunal de Contas dos Municipios do Estado do Pará (TCM/PA). A variável de análise foi o tempo gasto pelo tribunal para proferir decisões sobre as contas municipais. Resultados: Os achados revelaram que os cento e quarenta e quatro municípios entregaram o total de 2.330 contas, no período de 2008 a 2016 e, apenas 600 processos foram apreciados. Entre a data de protocolo e a decisão do TCM/PA apresentou mediana de quatro e, máximo de oito anos. Contribuições do Estudo: A pesquisa contribui para disseminação de informações sobre tempestividade das apreciações das contas públicas municipais pelos tribunais de contas. Para a informação possuir utilidade, aos usuários, deverá ser tempestiva. O fato do controle dos tribunais de contas acontecer a posteori, a tempestividade ganha relevância por tratar de informações necessárias a democracia. Conforme Melo, Pereira e Figueiredo (2009) as instituições governamentais de controle dos atos do poder público têm atraído, nas últimas décadas, uma maior atenção da sociedade. Pinho e Sacramento (2009) investigando accountability no Brasil demonstram que a sociedade, nos últimos 20 anos, tem participado mais ativamente do controle das ações governamentais.
Conferences are generally acknowledged to be a well-established activity of academic, scientific and professional (ASP) practice. However, there is no established mainstream field of conference learning, and the literature and opinion on the topic is scant, and thinly dispersed across a wide spread and uncollated multidisciplinary literature. This thesis looks to lift the lid on this much passed-over area of ASP practice, and in particular its role as a medium of information dissemination and knowledge transfer. Specifically it examines the role, efficacy and perception of poster presentation as a continuing education tool, and as a medium of scientific communication. The thesis begins by exploring the use of posters in conference and educational settings, and establishes their historical precedent. Poster presentation evolved as a means to allow more people to present their work, but over time the numbers of conference posters being presented have increased exponentially, and the mass of information that is made available in poster format has become unmanageable. The few studies that have examined the motivations of conference attendees have placed education (in the form of disseminating and accessing information) as the prime stated reason for attending conferences, closely followed by a wish to network with peers in their professional communities. The fields of continuing education and professional development actively recognise conferences as learning opportunities, and higher education is a consistent reference point in conference literature, with many ASP conference delegates either employed or enrolled in higher education institutions, or following professions that are grounded in higher education and training. However conferences as a site and means of learning are neglected as an area of academic study, and there is limited research that examines their educational efficacy. By way of four sub-studies, this research looked to answer the following overarching research question: What is the effectiveness of academic and scientific poster presentations, and how do academics perceive their importance in knowledge transfer? Sub-Study I carried out a state of the art literature review (51 included studies) to determine the effectiveness of poster presentations on knowledge transfer. Sub-Study II expanded this enquiry and employed an enhanced informetric mapping review that presented quantitative data on poster presentation literature from a total of 249 databases and a comparative academic search engine. Sub-Study III employed a mixed-method design survey exploring conference delegate perceptions of poster presentation, using open- and closed-ended questions among conference participants (N=37), emerging and predetermined approaches to thematic formation, and quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. Sub-Study IV conducted a series of mixed-method web-based expert interviews (N=16) to explore delegate motivations and needs for conference attendance and their perceptions of poster presentation, using open- and closed-ended questions, emerging and predetermined approaches to thematic formation, and quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. The findings are presented in two main themes: The history and research on the efficacy of poster presentations, and Conference delegates' motivations and their evaluations of poster presentations. Sub-Study I found no evidence that posters were effective as standalone media in facilitating knowledge transfer, be it through an increase in knowledge, change in attitude or behaviour. This runs contrary to the routine poster practices that can be seen at many conference events, where poster presentation is perceived as an established way of sharing knowledge, and as having to function as a standalone entity as well as a presented medium. As such, a dichotomy was seen to emerge whereby posters were being presented with an aim to inform and generate knowledge, yet the available research and theory indicated that this would be unlikely to be achieved using conventional poster practices. However, the study also showed a paucity of foundational research. Sub-Study II revealed the massive global scope of poster presentation, with returns seen from every discipline and continent. Medicine was seen as the largest contributory discipline, outpacing its nearest rivals by some 70%. However, aside from a very limited amount of published research on poster presentation, it was observed that over 99% of the returns led only to a title or abstract mention of poster presentations. Whilst Sub-Study II confirmed massive levels of engagement in poster presentation, it also uncovered literature and opinion that bemoaned its efficacy and value. In order to examine this further, the motivations of conference delegates were explored in two further sub-studies, along with their perceptions of poster presentation. The data from sub-studies III and IV confirmed the motivations of conference delegates to share and disseminate information within gathered conference peer-communities, and that this enabled them to network with like-minded peers. However, there was a clear differentiation between the subjective benefits of conference attendance (which appear to be well catered for), and the way that the objective delegate needs of effective dissemination and recognition are met. The sub-study data reflected a hierarchy of oral presentation being more highly valued than poster presentation, but despite their numeric presence at conferences, this research showed that poster presentations do not serve to disseminate or generate knowledge effectively. Moreover, there is a clear expression that the format of poster presentation is outdated, and needs to be revised in order to increase its value and effectiveness. The thesis reveals that overall, less than 50% of conference outputs are developed into publications that can be used as an effective knowledge resource by the ASP community. The inability of poster presentations to transfer and generate knowledge is consolidated by the triangulation of theory on knowledge development, and points towards a need to improve the depth of information that is made available, and also the way it is disseminated pre-, per, and post-event. The cost of this inefficiency can be further expressed in monetary terms of multi-billion dollar annual expenditures. In relation to the opinions expressed in the literature and the voices featured in this study, developments in the informational management of poster presentations (and conference outputs as a whole) would not only increase their educational efficacy, but also increase their functional value as a means of scientific communication. This research offers a reasoned and substantiated argument for conducting immediate research and development in this area. Accordingly, institutions and governmental bodies should consider the massive amounts of human and monetary capital that are committed to conference engagement on a yearly basis, and instigate and support developments that will help to make conference participation and publication a more worthwhile activity, with concrete and demonstrable outputs that support the needs of a globally connected ASP community. ; Tieteellisiä konferensseja ja niihin osallistumista pidetään vakiintuneina käytäntöinä akateemisen tiedeyhteisön keskuudessa (ASP-käytäntö; academic, scientific and professional). Siitä huolimatta konferenssien aikana tapahtuvaa oppimista tarkasteleva tieteellinen tutkimus puuttuu lähes kokonaan. Aihetta käsittelevä tutkimuskirjallisuus ja keskustelu on vähäistä. Lisäksi keskustelu on hajaantunut eri tieteenaloja koskevaan tutkimuskirjallisuuteen. Tämän väitöskirjan tarkoituksena on valaista tätä paljolti huomiotta jäänyttä ASP-käytäntöä sekä sen roolia tiedon ja oppimisen välittäjänä. Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan erityisesti posteriesitysten roolia ja hyödyllisyyttä sekä tiedeyhteisön käsityksiä niistä elinikäisen oppimisen työkaluina ja tieteellisen kommunikaation välineinä. Väitöskirjan alussa tarkastellaan posteriesitysten käyttöä konferenssi- ja koulutusympäristöissä sekä esitellään niiden historiallista taustaa. Posteriesitykset otettiin käyttöön, jotta mahdollisimman moni akateemisen yhteisön jäsen saisi mahdollisuuden esitellä tutkimustaan. Ajan kuluessa posteriesitysten määrä on kuitenkin kasvanut räjähdysmäisesti, mikä on puolestaan johtanut siihen, että niiden sisältämästä tietomassasta on tullut hallitsematonta. Niissä harvoissa tutkimuksissa, joissa on tarkasteltu syitä konferensseihin osallistumiselle, on todettu, että tärkeimpänä syynä osallistujat ovat pitäneet oppimista (tiedon jakamista ja vastaanottamista). Lähes tulkoon yhtä tärkeäksi syyksi osallistujat mainitsivat halun verkostoitua muiden tutkijoiden kanssa heidän ammatillisissa yhteisöissään. Elinikäistä oppimista ja ammatillista kehittymistä tutkivilla aloilla konferensseja yleisesti pidetään oppimisympäristöinä, minkä lisäksi korkeakouluopetukseen viitataan alinomaa konferensseja koskevassa kirjallisuudessa. Monet ASP-konferenssien osanottajat myös joko työskentelevät tai opiskelevat korkeakouluissa tai ovat ammateissa, joiden perusta on korkeakouluopetuksessa ja koulutuksessa. Siitä huolimatta konferenssien rooli oppimisympäristönä ja -välineenä on jäänyt paitsioon akateemisessa tutkimuksessa ja vain vähäinen määrä tutkimusta tarkastelee niiden koulutuksellista hyötyä. Väitöskirja muodostuu neljästä osatutkimuksesta, joiden avulla etsitään vastausta eri aihealueet yhteen kokoavaan tutkimuskysymykseen: Kuinka hyödyllisiä akateemiset ja tieteelliset posteriesitykset ovat ja kuinka merkittävinä tiedonvälittäjinä akateeminen yhteisö niitä pitää? Ensimmäisessä osatutkimuksessa toteutettiin kirjallisuusarvio tuoreimmasta saatavilla olevasta tutkimuksesta (N=51 tutkimusta). Sen tarkoituksena oli määrittää posteriesitysten hyödyllisyys tiedonvälityksessä. Osatutkimus II laajensi tätä kysymystä käyttäen tehostettua informetristä review-tutkimusta, jossa analysoitiin kvantitatiivista dataa posteriesityksiä käsittelevästä kirjallisuudesta kaiken kaikkiaan 249 tietokannasta ja vertailuja tekevästä akateemisesta hakukoneesta. Kolmannessa osatutkimuksessa suunniteltiin ja toteutettiin monimenetelmäinen kysely, jolla kartoitettiin konferenssivieraiden (N=37) käsityksiä posteriesityksistä. Kyselyssä käytettiin avoimia ja suljettuja kysymyksiä, ennakoimatonta ja ennakoivaa lähestymistapaa temaattisessa kysymyksenasettelussa sekä kvalitatiivista ja kvantitatiivista aineistonkeruuta ja analyysia. Neljännessä osatutkimuksessa suoritettiin sarja monimenetelmäisiä verkkohaastatteluita (N=16), joilla kartoitettiin konferenssivieraiden syitä ja tarpeita konferensseihin osallistumiselle sekä heidän käsityksiään posteriesityksistä. Haastatteluissa käytettiin avoimia ja suljettuja kysymyksiä, ennakoimatonta ja ennakoivaa lähestymistapaa kysymyksenasettelussa sekä kvalitatiivista ja kvantitatiivista aineistonkeruuta ja analyysia. Tutkimustulokset esitellään kahden pääteeman mukaisesti: Posteriesitysten historia ja niiden hyödyllisyyttä koskeva tutkimus ja Konferenssivieraiden syyt osallistumiselle ja heidän arvionsa posteriesityksistä. Ensimmäisen osatutkimuksen perusteella ei löytynyt näyttöä siitä, että posteriesitykset olisivat hyödyllisiä itsenäisessä välittäjäroolissa ja helpottamassa tiedonsiirtoa, olipa kyseessä tiedon lisääminen tai muutos asenteessa tai käytöksessä. Tämä havainto on ristiriidassa yleisten ja rutiininomaisten konferenssikäytäntöjen kanssa, joissa posteriesityksiä pidetään vakiintuneena tapana jakaa tietoa sekä toimivan paitsi itsenäisenä kokonaisuutena myös suullisena esityksenä. Näin ollen esiin nousi kahtiajako: Toisaalta posteriesitysten tarkoituksena pidetään tiedottamista ja tiedon lisäämistä, mutta silti olemassa oleva tutkimus ja teoria ovat osoittaneet, että tämä tavoite ei todennäköisesti toteudu nykyisillä posteriesityskäytännöillä. Toisaalta tutkimuksessa kävi ilmi myös perustutkimuksen vähäisyys. Osatutkimus II paljasti posteriesitysten maailmanlaajuisen kattavuuden, sillä hakutuloksia saatiin joka tutkimusalalta ja maanosasta. Ylivoimaisesti eniten hakutuloksia saatiin lääketieteestä, noin 70 % enemmän kuin muilta tieteenaloilta. Joka tapauksessa, lukuun ottamatta sitä, että posteriesityksiä koskevan julkaistun tutkimuksen määrä on todella vähäinen, yli 99 % hakutuloksista johti ainoastaan mainintaan posteriesityksen otsikosta tai tiivistelmästä. Toisin sanoen, vaikka osatutkimus II vahvisti posteriesitysten vahvan aseman, se myös toi esiin tutkimuskirjallisuudesta löydettävän ja asiantuntijoiden esittämän kritiikin niiden hyödyllisyydestä ja merkityksestä. Tämän asian lähempi tarkastelu vaati konferenssivieraiden motiivien sekä heidän posteriesityksiä koskevien käsitysten kartoitusta vielä kahdessa osatutkimuksessa. Kolmannesta ja neljännestä osatutkimuksesta saatu tutkimustieto vahvisti sen, että konferenssivieraiden motivaationa toimi tiedon jakaminen ja välittäminen muun konferenssiin osallistuneen vertaisyhteisön kanssa, mikä myös mahdollisti heidän verkostoitumisensa saman alan tutkijoiden kanssa. Tutkimuksessa nousi kuitenkin esiin selkeä ero konferenssiin osallistumisen henkilökohtaisten hyötyjen saavuttamisen (joihin on panostettu ilmeisen hyvin) ja sen välillä, miten vieraiden objektiiviset tarpeet tehokkaaseen tiedonvälitykseen ja tunnustukseen täyttyivät. Osatutkimuksen tutkimustiedosta nousi esiin hierarkia, jossa suullista esitystä arvostettiin posteriesitystä enemmän. Huolimatta posteriesitysten yleisyydestä konferensseissa, ne eivät välitä tai generoi tietoa tehokkaasti. Tämän lisäksi tutkimus osoitti, että nykyisessä muodossaan posteriesitys on vanhentunut ja vaatii uudistamista, jotta sen merkitys ja hyödyllisyys saataisiin palautettua. Väitöskirjan löydösten perusteella käy ilmi, että alle 50 % konferenssiesityksistä päätyy julkaisuihin, joita ASP-yhteisö voi hyödyntää tiedonlähteinä. Myös eri teoriat tiedon kehittymisestä vahvistavat posteriesitysten kyvyttömyyttä välittää ja lisätä tietoa. On tarpeen parantaa esitysten laatua sekä tapaa, jolla niistä saatavaa tietoa välitetään ennen tapahtumaa, sen aikana sekä tapahtuman jälkeen. Tämän tehottomuuden hinta voi rahassa laskettuna nousta vuosittain monen miljardin dollarin kulueräksi. Tutkimuskirjallisuudessa esitettyjen mielipiteiden sekä tässä tutkimuksessa esiin tulleiden näkemysten perusteella posteriesitysten (sekä yleisesti kaikkien konferenssiesitysten) sisältöjen parantaminen lisäisi paitsi niiden koulutuksellista hyötyä, myös niiden tarkoituksenmukaisuutta tieteellisen kommunikaation välineenä. Tutkimus tuo esiin harkitun ja perustellun väittämän, jonka mukaan aihealue vaatii välitöntä tutkimusta ja kehitystä. Sen lisäksi eri instituutioiden ja valtion virastojen tulisi huomioida se valtava henkilö- ja rahapääoma, joka konferensseille varataan vuosittain, ja panna alulle ja tukea kehitystä, joka tekisi konferensseihin osallistumisesta ja konferenssijulkaisemisesta hyödyllisempää toimintaa, joka konkreettisilla tuloksillaan tukisi myös maailmanlaajuisen ASP-yhteisön tarpeita.
Does a man who knits demonstrate courage? The question refers to the meanings attributed to knitting, which has traditionally been perceived as a female occupation performed in private space. In this article, referring to the past and the analysis of contemporary craft practice, I describe the process of deconstruction in this area. I am particularly interested in men knitting in public. The aim of my considerations is to analyze the difference between the meaning of what is male and female in knitting, and between hegemonic practice and subversive acts of deconstruction. ; Czy mężczyzna, który robi na drutach, wykazuje się dziś odwagą? Tak sformułowane pytanie odsyła do znaczeń przypisywanych dzierganiu, tradycyjnie postrzeganemu jako zajęcie kobiece, wykonywane w przestrzeni prywatnej. W ramach prezentowanego artykułu, odwołując się do przeszłości oraz w oparciu o analizę współczesnych praktyk rękodzielniczych, opisuję proces dekonstrukcji dokonujący się w tym obszarze. 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Includes bibliography (p. 214-231). ; Number of sources in the bibliography: 245 ; Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Cyprus, Faculty of Social Sciences and Education, Department of Social and Political Sciences, 2008 ; The University of Cyprus Library holds the printed form of the thesis. ; Η μεγάλη ροή των μεταναστών, νόμιμων και παράνομων, που φθάνουν στην Κύπρο ψάχνοντας για εργασία και καλύτερες συνθήκες διαβίωσης, έχει προκαλέσει συγκεκριμένα κοινωνικά προβλήματα. Τα μέσα μαζικής ενημέρωσης που επισημαίνουν την ραγδαία αύξηση των παράνομων μεταναστών, τη συμμετοχή τους στο οργανωμένο έγκλημα καθώς επίσης και τον ρυθμό αύξησης της εγκληματικότητας, έχουν προκαλέσει την εχθρότητα μεταξύ του πληθυσμού έναντι των μειονοτήτων που θεωρούν ότι ανταγωνίζονται για τις θέσεις εργασίας, κατηγορώντας τους για τα εγκλήματα που διαπράττονται. Υπάρχει ανάγκη διερεύνησης εάν οι αντιλήψεις για την εγκληματικότητα των μεταναστών ανταποκρίνονται με τα πραγματικά ποσοστά φυλάκισης, διότι εάν οι αντιλήψεις είναι αρνητικές, δεν συμπίπτουν με την πραγματικότητα, αυτό θα συνιστούσε την ύπαρξη αρνητικών αισθημάτων κατά των μεταναστών. Ο κύριος στόχος της παρούσας διατριβής είναι να διευρυνθεί η δημόσια αντίληψη των σημαντικών θεμάτων που άπτονται των μεταναστών και το Κυπριακό ποινικό σύστημα. Δεν έχει διενεργηθεί καμία προηγούμενη έρευνα αναφορικά στο θέμα των μεταναστών και του εγκλήματος στην Κύπρο. Βάσει της βιβλιογραφικής επισκόπησης, οι ακόλουθες τρεις υποθέσεις έχουν εξεταστεί σχετικά με τις τοποθετήσεις των Ελληνοκυπρίων και των αλλοδαπών: α. Οι μετανάστες αυξάνουν τα ποσοστά εγκλήματος και προκαλούν επιπρόσθετα προβλήματα στην κοινωνία. β. Τα ποσοστά εγκλήματος των αλλοδαπών είναι υψηλότερα από τους Κύπριους. γ. Οι υποθέσεις (α) και (β) συνδέονται με το ρατσισμό και την ξενοφοβία. Με άλλα λόγια, η ρατσιστική/ξενόφοβη υπόθεση είναι ότι η πεποίθηση του κοινού ότι οι μετανάστες διαπράττουν εγκλήματα λειτουργεί ανεξάρτητα από την πραγματικότητα και εκφράζει στερεότυπα των μεταναστών (William, 2003:8). Έχουν συλλεχθεί τόσο ποσοτικά όσο και ποιοτικά στοιχεία σε μία προσπάθεια να απαντηθούν οι ερωτήσεις που τίθενται και για να αντιμετωπισθούν τα πρόσθετα κοινωνικο-νομικά ζητήματα. Η έρευνα περιέλαβε δύο ερωτηματολόγια. Το πρώτο χρησιμοποιήθηκε για να ερευνήσει 500 Κύπριους αναφορικά για τις αντιλήψεις και τη στάση τους απέναντι στους αλλοδαπούς και το έγκλημα. Το δεύτερο ερωτηματολόγιο χρησιμοποιήθηκε για να διερευνηθούν 100 αλλοδαποί για να εξετάσει τις αντιλήψεις σχετικά για το έγκλημα, και τη στάση τους απέναντι στους Ελληνοκυπρίους. Για την ανάλυση των στοιχείων που συλλέχθηκαν από δύο ποσοτικές έρευνες χρησιμοποιήθηκε το αναλυτικό πρόγραμμα SPSS. Επιπλέον για να ληφθούν τα ποιοτικά στοιχεία, έχουν διενεργηθεί 30 συνεντεύξεις με αλλοδαπούς (πρόσωπο με πρόσωπο) που πραγματοποιήθηκαν κυρίως στη Λευκωσία. Αυτή η διατριβή τεκμηριώνει ότι η κοινή αντίληψη για την ύπαρξη σχέσης μεταξύ των μεταναστών και του εγκλήματος, δεν είναι υπερβολή. Με άλλα λόγια, οι αλλοδαποί διαπράττουν αναλογικά περισσότερο σοβαρά αδικήματα σε σχέση με τους Κύπριους. Τα κύρια σημεία που θίγονται σε σχέση με τους μετανάστες υποδυκνείουν ότι οι άνθρωποι αισθάνονται ανασφαλείς στις κοινότητές τους. Οι περισσότεροι από αυτούς είναι προκατειλημμένοι ενάντια στους Ρωσσο-Πόντιους, καθώς επίσης και οι αλλοδαποί είναι προκατελλημένοι προς αυτούς, όπως και προς τους Κυπρίους. Η πλειοψηφία των Ελληνοκυπρίων αναγνωρίζει ότι υπάρχει ρατσισμός στην Κύπρο, λόγω της ξενοφοβίας και παραπληροφόρησης των Μέσων Ενημέρωσης. Όλοι οι ερωτηθέντες στις συνεντεύξεις (πρόσωπο με πρόσωπο), δήλωσαν ότι δεν τείνουν να κοινωνικοποιούνται με Κυπρίους και δεν έχουν στενούς Κύπριους φίλους. Μερικοί από αυτούς ανέφεραν ότι υπάρχει ένα αόρατο εμπόδιο στην κοινωνική αλληλεπίδραση με τους Κυπρίους που τους καθιστά αδύνατο να έχουν στενές επαφές με τους αλλοδαπούς. Επίσης, είναι της άποψης ότι οι Κύπριοι, για τον ένα ή τον άλλο λόγο, είναι ρατσιστές. Αυτή η εύρεση δείχνει ότι η ένταξη των μεταναστών στο σώμα της Κυπριακής κοινωνίας προχωρά αργά. Η Κυπριακή κοινωνία έχει γίνει πολυπολιτισμική και θα πρέπει να ληφθούν τα κατάλληλα μέτρα, με προσοχή, για να αντιμετωπιστούν τα κοινωνικά προβλήματα, όπως το έγκλημα, αποφεύγοντας την περαιτέρω θυματοποίηση των μεταναστών, με την επένδυση περισσότερο στις φυλετικές σχέσεις. ; The recent influx of migrants, legal and illegal, arriving in Cyprus in search of work and better living conditions is perceived to have caused a variety of social problems. Media attention on the escalating numbers of undocumented migrants and their involvement in organized crime as well as the increase in crime rates, has provoked hostility among the population towards visible minorities who are perceived as competing for jobs, and the reason for the increase in crime. There is a need to see if perceptions of immigrant criminality are consistent with official criminal statistics because if perceptions are more negative than the reality, this would suggest anti-immigrant feeling. The main aim of the present thesis is to broaden public understanding of important issues in relation to migrants and the criminal justice system in the Republic of Cyprus. No previous research is available on the topic of migrants and crime in Cyprus. The literature review, led to the formulation and testing of three hypotheses regarding race-related attitudes of both Greek-Cypriots and foreigners: a. Immigrants increase crime rates and cause additional problems to society. b. The crime rates of foreigners are higher than locals. c. Hypotheses (a) and (b) are closely associated with racism and xenophobia. In other words, the racist/xenophobic hypothesis is that the public's belief that immigrants commit crimes functions independently of the actuality involved and it expresses a degrading stereotype of migrants (William, 2003:8). Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected to test the above hypotheses and to address additional socio-legal issues. The survey included two structured questionnaires. The first was used to investigate the opinions of a representative sample of 500 Greek-Cypriots, their perceptions and attitudes towards foreigners and crime. The second questionnaire was used to survey 100 foreigners regarding their opinions, crime perceptions, and attitudes towards Greek-Cypriots. Data from the two surveys was then analyzed using the SPSS package. In addition, qualitative data was also systematically collected by means of 30 face-to-face interviews with foreigners carried out mainly in Nicosia, which were transcribed and analyzed. This thesis documents that, on the basis of official criminal statistics, popular perceptions about a relationship between migrants and crime are not over-exaggerated. In other words, foreigners are found to commit proportionately more serious offences than Cypriots. The main points raised in relation to migrants suggest that people do feel unsafe in their communities. Most Greek-Cypriots are prejudiced against Russian-Pontiacs, but foreigners are also prejudiced against them, as well as against Cypriots. The majority of Greek-Cypriots recognize that there is racism in Cyprus, due to xenophobia and as a consequence of media misinformation. All the respondents in the face-to-face interviews declared that they do not tend to socialize with Cypriots and do not have close Cypriot friends. Some mentioned that there is an invisible barrier in the social interaction with Cypriots that makes it impossible for Cypriots to have close contacts with foreigners. Also, they are of the opinion that Cypriots for one reason or another are racists. This finding indicates that integration of immigrants into the body of the Cypriot society is proceeding slowly. Cypriot society has become multi-cultural and care should be taken to tackle social problems like crime, carefully avoiding further victimization of immigrants by investing more in race relations.
Includes bibliography (p. 214-231). ; Number of sources in the bibliography: 245 ; Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Cyprus, Faculty of Social Sciences and Education, Department of Social and Political Sciences, 2008 ; The University of Cyprus Library holds the printed form of the thesis. ; Η μεγάλη ροή των μεταναστών, νόμιμων και παράνομων, που φθάνουν στην Κύπρο ψάχνοντας για εργασία και καλύτερες συνθήκες διαβίωσης, έχει προκαλέσει συγκεκριμένα κοινωνικά προβλήματα. Τα μέσα μαζικής ενημέρωσης που επισημαίνουν την ραγδαία αύξηση των παράνομων μεταναστών, τη συμμετοχή τους στο οργανωμένο έγκλημα καθώς επίσης και τον ρυθμό αύξησης της εγκληματικότητας, έχουν προκαλέσει την εχθρότητα μεταξύ του πληθυσμού έναντι των μειονοτήτων που θεωρούν ότι ανταγωνίζονται για τις θέσεις εργασίας, κατηγορώντας τους για τα εγκλήματα που διαπράττονται. Υπάρχει ανάγκη διερεύνησης εάν οι αντιλήψεις για την εγκληματικότητα των μεταναστών ανταποκρίνονται με τα πραγματικά ποσοστά φυλάκισης, διότι εάν οι αντιλήψεις είναι αρνητικές, δεν συμπίπτουν με την πραγματικότητα, αυτό θα συνιστούσε την ύπαρξη αρνητικών αισθημάτων κατά των μεταναστών. Ο κύριος στόχος της παρούσας διατριβής είναι να διευρυνθεί η δημόσια αντίληψη των σημαντικών θεμάτων που άπτονται των μεταναστών και το Κυπριακό ποινικό σύστημα. Δεν έχει διενεργηθεί καμία προηγούμενη έρευνα αναφορικά στο θέμα των μεταναστών και του εγκλήματος στην Κύπρο. Βάσει της βιβλιογραφικής επισκόπησης, οι ακόλουθες τρεις υποθέσεις έχουν εξεταστεί σχετικά με τις τοποθετήσεις των Ελληνοκυπρίων και των αλλοδαπών: α. Οι μετανάστες αυξάνουν τα ποσοστά εγκλήματος και προκαλούν επιπρόσθετα προβλήματα στην κοινωνία. β. Τα ποσοστά εγκλήματος των αλλοδαπών είναι υψηλότερα από τους Κύπριους. γ. Οι υποθέσεις (α) και (β) συνδέονται με το ρατσισμό και την ξενοφοβία. Με άλλα λόγια, η ρατσιστική/ξενόφοβη υπόθεση είναι ότι η πεποίθηση του κοινού ότι οι μετανάστες διαπράττουν εγκλήματα λειτουργεί ανεξάρτητα από την πραγματικότητα και εκφράζει στερεότυπα των μεταναστών (William, 2003:8). Έχουν συλλεχθεί τόσο ποσοτικά όσο και ποιοτικά στοιχεία σε μία προσπάθεια να απαντηθούν οι ερωτήσεις που τίθενται και για να αντιμετωπισθούν τα πρόσθετα κοινωνικο-νομικά ζητήματα. Η έρευνα περιέλαβε δύο ερωτηματολόγια. Το πρώτο χρησιμοποιήθηκε για να ερευνήσει 500 Κύπριους αναφορικά για τις αντιλήψεις και τη στάση τους απέναντι στους αλλοδαπούς και το έγκλημα. Το δεύτερο ερωτηματολόγιο χρησιμοποιήθηκε για να διερευνηθούν 100 αλλοδαποί για να εξετάσει τις αντιλήψεις σχετικά για το έγκλημα, και τη στάση τους απέναντι στους Ελληνοκυπρίους. Για την ανάλυση των στοιχείων που συλλέχθηκαν από δύο ποσοτικές έρευνες χρησιμοποιήθηκε το αναλυτικό πρόγραμμα SPSS. Επιπλέον για να ληφθούν τα ποιοτικά στοιχεία, έχουν διενεργηθεί 30 συνεντεύξεις με αλλοδαπούς (πρόσωπο με πρόσωπο) που πραγματοποιήθηκαν κυρίως στη Λευκωσία. Αυτή η διατριβή τεκμηριώνει ότι η κοινή αντίληψη για την ύπαρξη σχέσης μεταξύ των μεταναστών και του εγκλήματος, δεν είναι υπερβολή. Με άλλα λόγια, οι αλλοδαποί διαπράττουν αναλογικά περισσότερο σοβαρά αδικήματα σε σχέση με τους Κύπριους. Τα κύρια σημεία που θίγονται σε σχέση με τους μετανάστες υποδυκνείουν ότι οι άνθρωποι αισθάνονται ανασφαλείς στις κοινότητές τους. Οι περισσότεροι από αυτούς είναι προκατειλημμένοι ενάντια στους Ρωσσο-Πόντιους, καθώς επίσης και οι αλλοδαποί είναι προκατελλημένοι προς αυτούς, όπως και προς τους Κυπρίους. Η πλειοψηφία των Ελληνοκυπρίων αναγνωρίζει ότι υπάρχει ρατσισμός στην Κύπρο, λόγω της ξενοφοβίας και παραπληροφόρησης των Μέσων Ενημέρωσης. Όλοι οι ερωτηθέντες στις συνεντεύξεις (πρόσωπο με πρόσωπο), δήλωσαν ότι δεν τείνουν να κοινωνικοποιούνται με Κυπρίους και δεν έχουν στενούς Κύπριους φίλους. Μερικοί από αυτούς ανέφεραν ότι υπάρχει ένα αόρατο εμπόδιο στην κοινωνική αλληλεπίδραση με τους Κυπρίους που τους καθιστά αδύνατο να έχουν στενές επαφές με τους αλλοδαπούς. Επίσης, είναι της άποψης ότι οι Κύπριοι, για τον ένα ή τον άλλο λόγο, είναι ρατσιστές. Αυτή η εύρεση δείχνει ότι η ένταξη των μεταναστών στο σώμα της Κυπριακής κοινωνίας προχωρά αργά. Η Κυπριακή κοινωνία έχει γίνει πολυπολιτισμική και θα πρέπει να ληφθούν τα κατάλληλα μέτρα, με προσοχή, για να αντιμετωπιστούν τα κοινωνικά προβλήματα, όπως το έγκλημα, αποφεύγοντας την περαιτέρω θυματοποίηση των μεταναστών, με την επένδυση περισσότερο στις φυλετικές σχέσεις. ; The recent influx of migrants, legal and illegal, arriving in Cyprus in search of work and better living conditions is perceived to have caused a variety of social problems. Media attention on the escalating numbers of undocumented migrants and their involvement in organized crime as well as the increase in crime rates, has provoked hostility among the population towards visible minorities who are perceived as competing for jobs, and the reason for the increase in crime. There is a need to see if perceptions of immigrant criminality are consistent with official criminal statistics because if perceptions are more negative than the reality, this would suggest anti-immigrant feeling. The main aim of the present thesis is to broaden public understanding of important issues in relation to migrants and the criminal justice system in the Republic of Cyprus. No previous research is available on the topic of migrants and crime in Cyprus. The literature review, led to the formulation and testing of three hypotheses regarding race-related attitudes of both Greek-Cypriots and foreigners: a. Immigrants increase crime rates and cause additional problems to society. b. The crime rates of foreigners are higher than locals. c. Hypotheses (a) and (b) are closely associated with racism and xenophobia. In other words, the racist/xenophobic hypothesis is that the public's belief that immigrants commit crimes functions independently of the actuality involved and it expresses a degrading stereotype of migrants (William, 2003:8). Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected to test the above hypotheses and to address additional socio-legal issues. The survey included two structured questionnaires. The first was used to investigate the opinions of a representative sample of 500 Greek-Cypriots, their perceptions and attitudes towards foreigners and crime. The second questionnaire was used to survey 100 foreigners regarding their opinions, crime perceptions, and attitudes towards Greek-Cypriots. Data from the two surveys was then analyzed using the SPSS package. In addition, qualitative data was also systematically collected by means of 30 face-to-face interviews with foreigners carried out mainly in Nicosia, which were transcribed and analyzed. This thesis documents that, on the basis of official criminal statistics, popular perceptions about a relationship between migrants and crime are not over-exaggerated. In other words, foreigners are found to commit proportionately more serious offences than Cypriots. The main points raised in relation to migrants suggest that people do feel unsafe in their communities. Most Greek-Cypriots are prejudiced against Russian-Pontiacs, but foreigners are also prejudiced against them, as well as against Cypriots. The majority of Greek-Cypriots recognize that there is racism in Cyprus, due to xenophobia and as a consequence of media misinformation. All the respondents in the face-to-face interviews declared that they do not tend to socialize with Cypriots and do not have close Cypriot friends. Some mentioned that there is an invisible barrier in the social interaction with Cypriots that makes it impossible for Cypriots to have close contacts with foreigners. Also, they are of the opinion that Cypriots for one reason or another are racists. This finding indicates that integration of immigrants into the body of the Cypriot society is proceeding slowly. Cypriot society has become multi-cultural and care should be taken to tackle social problems like crime, carefully avoiding further victimization of immigrants by investing more in race relations.