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Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the "gray zone" between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new technologies or tactics—from cyber operations to "little green men"—seem to increase the effectiveness of low-intensity aggression. However, gray zone conflict could also be a case of deterrence success, where challengers adopt a constrained form of aggression in response to a credible escalation threat. We develop a model that formalizes both scenarios and identifies distinct empirical patterns across the two cases. We use the model's findings to empirically analyze Russian gray zone activity since the 1990s, finding that Russian activity appears, in part, to be restrained by NATO's deterrent threat. Our model also shows that developing gray zone conflict capabilities can lead to more peace but could also backfire and provoke a challenger to escalate to war.

Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the "gray zone" between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new technologies or tactics—from cyber operations to "little green men"—seem to increase the effectiveness of low-intensity aggression. However, gray zone conflict could also be a case of deterrence success, where challengers adopt a constrained form of aggression in response to a credible escalation threat. We develop a model that formalizes both scenarios and identifies distinct empirical patterns across the two cases. We use the model's findings to empirically analyze Russian gray zone activity since the 1990s, finding that Russian activity appears, in part, to be restrained by NATO's deterrent threat. Our model also shows that developing gray zone conflict capabilities can lead to more peace but could also backfire and provoke a challenger to escalate to war.

"Signaling in Foreign Policy" published on by Oxford University Press.

Abstract
Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought on deterring Russia.

Diskussion zu: Gartzke, Erik, Weisiger, Alex, Under construction, International Studies Quarterly, Malden/Mass., 58 (March 2014) 1, S. 130-145

Kroenig, M:, Gartzke, E.; Rauchhaus, R.: The causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation. - S. 1-12 Brown, R.: International nonproliferation : why delegate to the International Atomic Energy Agency? - S. 13-31 Erickson, J.L.; Way, C.: Membership has its privileges : conventional arms and influence within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. - S. 32-60 Kroenig, M.: Importing the bomb : sensitive nuclear assistance and nuclear proliferation. - S. 61-81 Fuhrmann, M.: Taking a walk on the supply side : the determinants of civilian nuclear cooperation. - S. 82-110 Benson, B.V.; Quan, W.: A bargaining model of nuclear weapons : development and disarmament. - S. 111-137 Wirtz, J.: Nuclear politics : the political decision to acquire, sustain or discard a nuclear arsenal. - S. 138-154 Gartzke, E.; Jo, D.-J.: Bargaining, nuclear proliferation, and interstate disputes. - S. 155-182 Horowitz, M.C: The spread of nuclear weapons and international conflict : does experience matter? - S. 183-208 Rauchhaus, R.: Evaluating the nuclear peace hypothesis : a quantitative approach. - S. 209-230 Beardsley, K.; Asal, V.: Winning with the bomb. - S. 231-254 Hellman, M.E.: Risk analysis of nuclear deterrence. - S. 255-270 Nelson, P.: Nuclear disarmament : can risk analysis inform the debate? - S. 271-293 Montgomery, A.H.; Sagan, S.D.: The perils of predicting proliferation. - S. 294-329

Schneider, Gerald; Gleditsch, Nils Petter: The Capitalist Peace: the origins and prospects of a liberal idea. - S. 107-114 Gartzke, Erik ;Hewitt, Joseph J.: International crises and the Capitalist Peace. - S. 115-145 McDonald, Patrick J.: Capitalism, commitment, and peace. - S. 146-168 Mueller, John: Capitalism, peace, and the historical movement of ideas. - S. 169-184

Hafner-Burton, E. ; Von Stein, J. ; Gartzke, E.: International organizations count. - S. 175-188 Dorussen, H. ; Ward, H.: International organizations and the Kantian peace: a network perspective. - S. 189-212 Hafner-Burton, E. ; Montgomery, A.: Power or plenty: how do international trade institutions affect economic sanctions? - S. 213-242 Von Stein, J.: The international law and politics of climate change: ratification of the United Nations Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. - S. 243-268 Mansfield, E. D. ; Pevehouse, J. C.: Democratization and the varieties of international organizations. - S. 269-294 Hansen, H. E. ; McLaughlin Mitchell, S. ; Nemeth, S. C.: IO mediation of interstate conflicts: moving beyond the global versus regional dichotomy. - S. 295-325 Snidal, D.: Commentary on the special issue. - S. 326-333 Milner, H. V.: Commentary on the special issue. - S. 334-337

Globalization and Armed Conflict addresses one of the most important and controversial issues of our time: Does global economic integration foster or suppress violent disputes within and among states? Here, cutting-edge research by leading figures in international relations shows that expanding commercial ties between states pacifies some, but not necessarily all, political relationships. The authors demonstrate that the pacific effect of economic integration hinges on democratic structures, the size of the global system, the nature of the trade goods, and a reduced influence of the mil