Suchergebnisse

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the 2007-2009 uncertainty shocks on policymakers' behavior.


Design/methodology/approach
– Uncertainty shocks in the US credit, financial and production markets are represented by extraordinary events. As in Bloom (2009), these events are associated with significant economic and political shocks (e.g. Lehman Brothers' collapse). Credit markets uncertainty shocks, which played a crucial role in the aftermath of the house prices collapse in the USA, are first analyzed in a bivariate VAR context, and then, embodied in a simple theoretical framework.


Findings
– The empirical evidence suggests that the US credit, financial and production markets have been affected by a relative large number of uncertainty shocks (i.e. rare events). In a Brainard's (1967) uncertainty scenario, it is shown that a bizarre money-liquidity relationship exacerbates the "policymakers' cautiousness-aggressiveness trade-off." In addition, the model suggests that a "double" dose of policy, in presence of a global credit crunch, might be useless.


Originality/value
– This paper improves the existing literature in two main directions. First, it provides novel empirical evidence on the unusual dynamics of the US credit market and its effects on the real economic activity during the crisis. Second, in a very simple theoretical framework accounting for parameter uncertainty, it addresses whether a bizarre money-credit relationship affects policymakers' behavior (i.e. cautiousness vs aggressiveness).

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the 2007-2009 uncertainty shocks on policymakers' behavior.Design/methodology/approach - Uncertainty shocks in the US credit, financial and production markets are represented by extraordinary events. As in Bloom (2009), these events are associated with significant economic and political shocks (e.g. Lehman Brothers' collapse). Credit markets uncertainty shocks, which played a crucial role in the aftermath of the house prices collapse in the USA, are first analyzed in a bivariate VAR context, and then, embodied in a simple theoretical framework.Findings - The empirical evidence suggests that the US credit, financial and production markets have been affected by a relative large number of uncertainty shocks (i.e. rare events). In a Brainard's (1967) uncertainty scenario, it is shown that a bizarre money-liquidity relationship exacerbates the "policymakers' cautiousness-aggressiveness trade-off." In addition, the model suggests that a "double" dose of policy, in presence of a global credit crunch, might be useless.Originality/value - This paper improves the existing literature in two main directions. First, it provides novel empirical evidence on the unusual dynamics of the US credit market and its effects on the real economic activity during the crisis. Second, in a very simple theoretical framework accounting for parameter uncertainty, it addresses whether a bizarre money-credit relationship affects policymakers' behavior (i.e. cautiousness vs aggressiveness).

Governments face growing contingent liabilities from disasters as they tend to shoulder a significant share of disaster response and recovery costs. Disaster shocks increase government expenditure and hamper economic activities. An increasing number of countries are developing financial protection strategies - a suite of policies and financial instruments - as part of their macro-fiscal policy to secure access to pre-arranged financing and protect the fiscal balance and budget when disasters strike. Investments in physical and social resilience complement and reinforce financial resilience. Pre-arranged risk financing can help governments reduce the fiscal cost of disasters. Sovereign catastrophe risk pools, established to help especially low-capacity countries better access financial markets, are evolving toward multifunctional platforms to strengthen financial resilience in their region. Governments are moving toward adopting more sophisticated risk financing strategies that better match financial instruments to their liabilities, especially for public assets (including infrastructure), national-subnational cost sharing, and social safety nets. New technology and innovations such as Earth Observation Data, Fintech, and big data have the potential to significantly enhance and boost systems for financial resilience against disaster shocks. Development partners continue to play a critical role in helping developing countries improve their financial protection strategies. Recent experiences of G20 countries and others have led to three new frontiers on innovative crisis and disaster risk finance. Although significant progress has been achieved in disaster risk finance, some limitations and challenges remain. All successful reforms start with concrete first steps and an ongoing focus on enhancing fundamental systems and institutions. Financial resilience requires the leadership of ministries of finance in coordination with other public agencies and the private sector. At the request of G20 Finance Track members, this discussion note was prepared to: (i) take stock of the developments in fiscal management of disaster risks within the broader macro-fiscal framework; (ii) highlight recent progress by individual countries and the international community; and (iii) present new frontiers in disaster risk finance.

MoneyLab is a network of artists, activists, and geeks experimenting with forms of financial democratization. Entering the 10th year of the global financial crisis, it still remains a difficult yet crucial task to distinguish old wine from its fancy new bottles. The MoneyLab network questions persistent beliefs, from Calvinist austerity, growth, and up-scaling, to trustless, automated decision making and (anarcho-)capitalist dreams of cybercurrencies and blockchained solutionism. We consider experiments with digital coops, internet-based payment and network-based revenue models as spaces of political imagination, with an equally important aesthetic program. In this second MoneyLab Reader the network delves into topics like the financialization of art; love as a binary proposition on the blockchain; the crowdfunding of livelihood; the cashless society; financial surveillance of the poor; universal basic income as the real McCoy or a real sham; the cooperative answer to Airbnb and Uber; the history of your financial dashboard; and, Hollywood's narration of the financial crisis. Fintech rushes through our veins, causing a whirlwind of critical concepts, ideas and imaginaries. Welcome to the eye of the storm.

Purpose
The purpose of the current study is to identify variables that, when integrated into the random effects parametric survival model, could be used to forecast the failure rate of small banks in the USA. A bank's income production, efficiency and costs were taken into consideration when choosing the internal components. The breakout of the financial crisis, bank regulations that affect how the banking sector operates and the federal funds rate are the primary external variables.


Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the random effects parametric survival model to investigate the causes of small bank failures in the USA from 1996 to 2019. The study identifies several characteristics that failed banks frequently display. The main indications that may help to identify the elevated risk of small bank failures include the ROA, the cost of funds, the ratio of noninterest income to assets, the ratio of loan and lease losses to assets, noninterest expenses and core capital (leverage) ratio to assets. Economic disruptions, financial market distress and industry-based regulatory redress by the government exacerbate the financial distress borne by small banks.


Findings
The study revealed that a failed bank typically demonstrates a certain number of characteristics. The key factors that might assist identify which bank would be most likely to collapse include the cost of funding earning assets, the yield on earning assets, core Capital (leverage) ratio to assets, loan and lease loss provision to assets, noninterest expense and noninterest income to assets. Additionally, when a financial crisis occurs or the government changes regulations that could raise the cost of compliance for small banks, the likelihood that a bank will fail increases.


Originality/value
Models based on survival theories are more suitable when the authors examine bank failure as a unique event that happens gradually. The authors use a random effects parametric survival model to investigate the internal and external factors that may influence prospective small bank failure. This model has been developed and used in the medicinal research field. The authors do not choose the Cox proportional hazards model because it does not work well with panel data.

The squeeze in United States dollar liquidity that emerged with the global financial crisis highlighted the risks inherent in the current global financial system. Asia was adversely affected by the crisis not only because of its dependence on trade, but also because of its heavy reliance on the US dollar for regional and international transactions. As Asia's role in the global economy continues to expand, its dependence on the US dollar is bound to increase, raising further its vulnerability to future liquidity shocks. The use of regional currencies for bilateral trade settlement could reduce such vulnerability. As demonstrated by the renminbi trade settlement scheme piloted between the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and Macao, China, the existence of appropriate financial infrastructure could reduce the relatively larger costs of bilateral currency transactions compared with triangular transactions through the United States dollar. As most central banks are securities depositories of government bonds, combining trade settlement with government bond securities settlement could also have large synergy effects without substantial extra costs. This proposal does not require full liberalization of the capital account or full deregulation of capital markets, and is more politically feasible in transition. As such, extending the trade settlement scheme to the rest of Asia and appending a government bond payment and securities settlement system could be a practical solution to international monetary system reform and the diversification of settlement currencies.

This article was supported in part by a Jean Monnet Network entitled "The Politics of the European Semester: EU Coordination and Domestic Political Institutions (EUROSEM)" Agreement number: 600110-EPP-1-2018-1-CA-EPPJMO-NETWORK (Grant agreement nr 2018-1359), with the support of the Erasmus+ programme of the European Union. ; There is now a significant literature engaging with questions around gender and economic governance in the European Union. This builds upon research that demonstrates the gendered nature of the economy, and the gendered impacts of policy interventions. This paper draws on that research to develop an account of the gendered nature of the EU's crisis response, moving from analysis of the response to the Global Financial Crisis to some prelimary discussions of the EU's economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper shows how at each stage policies generate gendered consequences, and are built upon gendered assumptions about society and the economy. This paper therefore connects the feminist literature on the European Economic Governance to debates on the Covid-19 response, using a focus on gender and gender equality to examine key continuities between the crisis fighting of the Global Financial crisis to the establishment of the Next Generation EU fund. ; Publisher PDF ; Peer reviewed

The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank's liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone. ; Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l'interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l'importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l'élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D'abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d'austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos ...

The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank's liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone. ; Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l'interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l'importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l'élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D'abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d'austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos ...

The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank's liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone. ; Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l'interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l'importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l'élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D'abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d'austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos ...

"Since the 2007-9 financial crash and its aftershocks, international capitalism has once again been in crisis. In politics, social structure, the economy, culture and ideology, Western democracies seem to be fragmenting. Yet this crisis has been particularly marked in the UK, and its outcome is currently unclear. Based on a wealth of sources, Neville Kirk examines the systemic crisis currently facing the nations of the United Kingdom, by exploring how we ended up here. From 2010 and the politics of austerity, fall in living standards, crises in political leadership, Scottish nationalism, societal divisions and institutional fragmentation - to the present day consequences of the pandemic, inflation, polarised political parties, Brexit, the future of the Union, and cultural and ideological clashes around identity, class, race, gender and ethnicity in UK's past, present and future. By developing a thorough analysis of the UK's past and present crises, Kirk sheds light on how and what will determine whether the crisis is resolved, and in which 'old' conservative or 'new' radical ways."

International audience This article aims to study the interactions between cross-border workers from the Greater Region of Luxembourg (compared to resident workers) and financial instability. Luxembourg, located in the heart of the Greater Region, is a major international financial centre, one of the most significant aspects of which is the phenomenon of cross-border or commuting work. Interrelationships between financial fluctuations, the real economy and employment seem to operate especially in times of crisis or post-crisis, and to affect more particularly cross-border workers, whose recruitment is facilitated by service and financial intermediation companies. We propose to evaluate these interrelationships with an asymmetric non-linear ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributive Lags) staggered delay autoregressive model, which validates the predictive power of financial indicators to explain fluctuations in cross-border and resident workers.

On 8 February 2013, the European Council agreed on the EU's multiannual financial framework for 2014–20. The agreement includes a reduction of the overall spending level and significant reprioritisations. This paper asks how this agreement has been reached. Scharpf's actor-centered institutionalism is applied, including the concept of the joint-decision trap. The paper finds that the outcome was made possible by compensating the member states that were worst affected by the policy changes. A coalition of net contributors, centered on Germany and the United Kingdom, was influential regarding the overall spending level. In addition, the external environment with the fiscal and economic crisis created a momentum for reduced expenditures. Those against the reduction, the member states in favour of agriculture and cohesion, were not able to avoid cutbacks. Member states in favour of the cohesion policy faced hard conditions for maintaining unity in their coalition, whereas member states in favour of agricultural spending could more easily negotiate for their common interests.