Suchergebnisse

Aus der Einleitung: Der Demografische Wandel im Jahr 2010 ist Herausforderung und Chance zugleich. Zukünftig werden sich die Altersstrukturen in weitaus größerem Maße, als bisher, verändern. In ganz Europa wird es ähnliche Verschiebungen wie in Deutschland geben. Sie führen darauf hinaus, dass es nicht wesentlich mehr ältere Menschen geben wird, vergleichsweise zur heutigen Zeit nur weniger junge Menschen, aufgrund einer längeren Lebenserwartung. Die Diskussion dieser Problematik ist nunmehr unausweichlich. Die Bevölkerung nimmt insgesamt ab und wird immer älter. In Deutschland sind die regionalen Gegebenheiten der Altersstrukturen allerdings differenziert zu betrachten. Je nach Himmelsrichtung, unterscheidet sich auch der ländliche Raum zunehmend vom Städtischen. Heute ist in Deutschland jeder Fünfte 65 Jahre oder älter. Im Jahr 2060 wird es jeder Dritte sein. Der Seniorenanteil von Menschen ab 65 Jahren, beträgt in Berlin im Jahr 2009 rund 18,78 Prozent. Die Handlungsfelder in Politik und Gesellschaft fürchten sich vor den Älteren als untragbare Last im Sozialsystem und einem möglichen Zusammenbruch des Generationenvertrages durch unausweichliche Konflikte oder misslingende Reformen. Weniger die Chancen werden hier wahrgenommen, als die Problematik der Kosten. Dabei sollte vor allem das Potenzial der älteren Menschen in Betracht gezogen werden, welches sich im Bereich des ehrenamtlichen Engagements oder der familiären Pflegeleistungen, für noch Ältere, durchaus bezahlt machen kann. Das Altern der Bevölkerung legt Chancen frei, sich kritisch mit zukünftig möglichen seniorengerechten Wohn- und Lebensformen auseinanderzusetzen. Eine wesentliche Rolle spielen dabei auch deren Qualität und Quantität. Die Wohnform im Alter entscheidet maßgeblich über den Gesundheitszustand und die allgemeine Lebensqualität. So individuell wie der Mensch in jedem Lebensalter ist, so bleibt er es bis ins hohe Alter. Wichtig ist es für jeden, den persönlichen Bedürfnissen gerecht zu werden und die jeweilige Wohnform herauszufinden. Senioren dürfen in ihren Bedürfnissen, Ansprüchen oder in ihrer Wohnumgebung keinesfalls ausgegrenzt werden, denn sie sind und werden zukünftig mehr denn je, aktiver Teil des Lebens einer Stadt wie Berlin sein. Der Anspruch ist es, der sozialen Teilung der Stadt entgegenzuwirken, die sich in manchen Stadtteilen bereits abzeichnet und ein generationenübergreifendes Zusammenleben zu fördern. Den Berlinern wird nachgesagt, dass sie eine starke Verbundenheit zu ihrer Stadt empfinden. Als heutiger Hauptstadt Deutschlands und ehemaligem Schauplatz von Krieg und kaltem Krieg mit geteilter Stadt, werden viele Erlebnisse des eigenen Lebens mit dieser Stadt verbunden. Um diese Verbundenheit als Wohngefühl fördern zu können, müssen Maßnahmen entwickelt und eingeleitet werden, die ein selbstbestimmtes, seniorengerechtes Leben in einer Stadt wie Berlin ermöglichen können. Jedoch stellt sich zunehmend die Frage, wie es zu erreichen ist, dass Senioren länger selbständig im heimischen Umfeld wohnen können. Gefragt sind Lösungen, die ein qualitativ hohes Maß an Selbstbestimmtheit und Freiheit im Alter geben können. Die Technisierung ist auf lange Sicht in diesem Zusammenhang kaum aus dem Wohnumfeld wegzudenken. Mit ihrer Hilfe werden Möglichkeiten in Betracht gezogen, die einerseits Hilfestellungen geben, auf der anderen Seite jedoch stark in die Privatsphäre eingreifen können. Solche Lösungen müssen auf ihre Einsatzmöglichkeiten und Konformität, mit den Ansprüchen der Älteren, diskutiert und geprüft werden. Künftige Seniorengenerationen werden es in diesem Zusammenhang leichter haben, da sie mit dem technischen Verständnis, das sie bereits aus dem jungen und mittleren Alter mitbringen, weiter sein werden als heutige Senioren. Dennoch werden auch gegenwärtig die Senioren unterschätzt, in dem was sie leisten können und wollen. In dieser Arbeit soll dargestellt werden, dass der demografische Wandel neben Schwarzmalerei und Problemstellungen auch viele Chancen, Innovationsfelder und Arbeits- sowie Forschungsfelder aufweist, welche für den Wohn- und Lebensbereich heutiger und zukünftiger Seniorengenerationen nutzbar gemacht werden sollten. Die Innovationsfelder der Kommunikations- und Informationstechnologien im Bereich der Gesundheitswirtschaft und des technikunterstützten Wohnens (Assistenzwohnen) werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit ebenfalls näher beleuchtet. Problemstellung: Die Zunahme der Generation 65+ stellt, bei gleichzeitiger Abnahme jüngerer Generationen, einen unumkehrbaren Prozess dar. In der Vergangenheit wird das Thema des selbständigen Wohnens im Alter wenig priorisiert. Es müssen jedoch zeitnah Lösungen geschaffen werden, die eine selbständige Lebensführung bis ins hohe Alter ermöglichen. Der derzeitige Personalbestand in der stationären und ambulanten Altenpflege steht in keinem zufriedenstellenden Verhältnis zum heutigen und künftigen Bedarf. Es besteht für die Stadt Berlin sowie auch bundesweit innovativer Handlungsbedarf. Zielsetzung: Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Defizite, Möglichkeiten und Chancen im seniorengerechten Berliner Wohn- und Versorgungssystem aufzuzeigen und diese für die Zukunft zu realisieren. Es soll verdeutlicht werden, wie weitreichend schon in diesem Gebiet gehandelt wird und auf welchen Ebenen noch Potenziale liegen. Bundesweites Vorgehen wird grundsätzlich berücksichtigt, als Basis für eine spezielle Betrachtung des Landes Berlin. Gang der Untersuchung: Einleitend zum Thema der Diplomarbeit, wird im Kapitel 1 die Problemstellung, das Ziel sowie das Vorgehen zur Themenbearbeitung beschrieben. Auf Basis des demografischen Wandels bis zum Jahr 2060 werden in Kapitel 2 Entwicklungen der einzelnen Generationen sowie Ursachen und die Historie betrachtet. Berlin wird dabei in gesonderter Form behandelt. Darauf aufbauend wird in Kapitel 3 der Zusammenhang von Alter und Pflege erläutert. Beginnend mit einem Überblick zu den verschiedenen Seniorengenerationen, wird anschließend der Begriff der Pflege im Verhältnis zu den verschiedenen Krankheitsbildern im Alter erklärt. Im Kapitel 4 werden derzeitige altersgerechte Wohn- und Pflegeformen in stationärer, ambulanter und individueller Form definiert und mit Beispielen für das Land Berlin gefestigt. Die Relevanz des Wohnens in der eigenen Wohnung wird in diesem Kapitel angeschnitten. Daran anschließend wird in Kapitel 5 die eigene Wohnung mit dem seniorengerechten Berliner Wohnungsmarkt detailliert betrachtet. Das selbstbestimmte Wohnen im Alter wird größtenteils als vorteilhafte Variante angesehen und wird damit zum Kern der vorliegenden Arbeit. Der Berliner Wohnungsmarkt, eingebettet in die Theorie des Immobilienmarktes, wird mit seinen Haushalten, dem Mietspiegel sowie Angebot und Nachfrage betrachtet. Näher erläutert wird die Barrierefreiheit und damit zusammenhängend die Frage, ob der Wohnungsmarkt seniorengerecht gestaltet ist. Abgerundet wird das Kapitel mit dem vorliegenden Handlungsbedarf. Das Kapitel 6, der Wohninnovationen, stellt die bundesweiten und forschungsrelevanten Möglichkeiten dar, die derzeit an wissenschaftliche Institute vergeben sind bzw. in Testphasen laufen. Dieses wird bundesweit angeschnitten und speziell für das Land Berlin betrachtet. Innovationen für den Wohnbereich werden für Berlin und andere Bundesländer mit Beispielen belegt. Der Themenkomplex des Assistenzwohnens im Zusammenhang mit dem BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) wird mit vier Projekten in Form von Lösungsansätzen aus Berlin veranschaulicht. Die aufgezeigten Chancen in Form von Annahmen zu Vor- und Nachteilen für Wohnungsunternehmen, Mieter und Dienstleister runden den Kern der Arbeit ab. Ein Fazit fasst in Kapitel 7 die wesentlichen Erkenntnisse zusammen. Der darauf aufbauende Ausblick stellt die weiteren Entwicklungen und den möglichen Handlungsverlauf des Themas dar.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: InhaltsverzeichnisI AbbildungsverzeichnisIV TabellenverzeichnisV AbkürzungsverzeichnisVI 1.Einleitung1 1.1Problemstellung2 1.2Zielsetzung3 1.3Vorgehensweise3 2.Demografischer Wandel5 2.1Annahmen für Deutschland bis 20605 2.1.1Historischer Überblick7 2.1.2Generationenvertrag10 2.1.3Entwicklungsgründe11 2.2Aktuelle Betrachtung des demografischen Wandels in Berlin12 2.3Ausblick für das Land Berlin bis 203014 3.Alter und Pflege17 3.1Begriffsabgrenzung "Alt"17 3.1.1Vergangene Generationen17 3.1.2Heutige Generationen18 3.1.3Zukünftige Generationen18 3.1.4Flexibilität und Toleranz im Alter19 3.2Pflegebedürftigkeit20 3.2.1Pflegeversicherung als Teil des Sozialversicherungssystems21 3.2.2Pflegestufen23 3.2.3Leistungsempfänger der Pflegeversicherung in Berlin24 3.3Krankheitsbilder im Alter25 4.Altersgerechte Wohn- und Pflegeformen27 4.1Vollstationäre Wohn- und Pflegeeinrichtungen27 4.1.1Krankenhaus28 4.1.2Pflegeheim29 4.1.3Altersheim29 4.2Teilstationäre Wohn- und Pflegemöglichkeiten30 4.2.1Ambulante Pflege30 4.2.2Zeitbegrenzte Pflege31 4.2.3Tages- und Nachtpflege31 4.3Individuell betreute Wohnformen32 4.3.1Betreutes Wohnen32 4.3.2Seniorenresidenz33 4.3.3Quartierswohnen34 4.3.4Seniorenwohngemeinschaften36 4.3.5Mehrgenerationenwohnen38 4.4Eigene Wohnung39 4.4.1Relevanz des Wohnens in der eigenen Wohnung39 4.4.2Relevanz der Vereinsamung40 4.4.3Wohnen für Hilfe41 5.Seniorengerechter Wohnungsmarkt42 5.1Immobilienbegriff in der Volkswirtschaftslehre43 5.2Wohnungsmarkt Besonderheiten43 5.3Berliner Wohnungsmarkt44 5.3.1Wohnungsleerstand45 5.3.2Haushalte45 5.3.3Anforderungen46 5.3.4Angebot und Nachfrage48 5.3.5Fördermöglichkeiten und Maßnahmen49 5.4Seniorengerechte Dienstleistungen51 5.4.1Anforderungen51 5.4.2Angebot und Nachfrage53 5.5Handlungsbedarf der Politik und des Städtebaus55 6.Wohninnovationen58 6.1AAL-Ambient Assisted Living58 6.2BMBF als Förderverband des Bundes im Bereich AAL59 6.3Projekte des BMBF in Berlin und anderen Bundesländern59 6.3.1DCJ59 6.3.2SELBST60 6.3.3Smart Senior61 6.3.4WebDA61 6.3.5Projekte des BMBF in anderen Bundesländern62 6.4Innovationen im Land Berlin63 6.5Innovationen anderer Bundesländer65 6.6Anforderungen an die technikunterstützte Wohnumgebung67 6.6.1Technikverständnis heutiger und zukünftiger Generationen68 6.6.2Technik für effiziente Ressourcennutzung70 6.7Chancen zukünftiger technisierter Wohnformen72 6.7.1Annahmen zu Vor- und Nachteilen für Mieter72 6.7.2Annahmen zu Vor- und Nachteilen für Dienstleister73 6.7.3Annahmen zu Vor- und Nachteilen für Wohnungsunternehmen74 7.Fazit und Ausblick75 7.1Fazit75 7.2Ausblick76 Literaturverzeichnis78Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 4.4, Eigene Wohnung: Sein Leben bis ins hohe Alter hinein selbständig zu bewältigen ist etwas Positives und wird dementsprechend geschätzt. Nicht auf Pflegedienste oder familiäre Pflege angewiesen zu sein, stärkt das Selbstbewusstsein der Älteren. Um sich die Selbständigkeit zu bewahren, wird auch die Wohnraumanpassung diskutiert. Änderungen in der Bausubstanz, beispielsweise Bodenangleichung der Dusche oder Höhenanpassungen der Loggien, sind ebenso im Gespräch wie Anpassungen in der Einrichtungsgestaltung. Neben Sitz- oder Schlafmöbelerhöhungen ist es ein grundlegendes Ziel, das Wohnen so barrierearm wie möglich zu gestalten, um die Kräfte nicht bei einfachen Verrichtungen des Alltags auszuschöpfen sondern sich die Kräfte zum Leben aufzusparen. Möglicherweise wird für die Selbständigkeit auch noch einmal ein Umzug in Betracht gezogen, in ein Umfeld, in dem barrierearme Wohnungen im Bestand sind und altersgerecht gewohnt werden kann. Relevanz des Wohnens in der eigenen Wohnung: Voraussetzung für ein Höchstmaß an Lebensqualität ist die Autonomie bis ins hohe Alter. Allgegenwärtig besteht bei den Senioren der Wunsch nach Selbständigkeit und Unabhängigkeit, wenn es um die Wohnform im Alter geht. Da ist es naheliegend, diesem Wunsch in den eigenen vier Wänden nachgehen zu können, vorteilhafterweise in einer vertrauten Wohnumgebung mit Nachbarschaft und weiteren Bekanntschaften. Wenn es die finanzielle Lage erlaubt, sind ältere Generationen durchaus bereit, in ihr Wohnumfeld zu investieren, da sich hier ein Großteil ihres Lebens abspielt. Das kann einerseits aufgrund ihrer gut situierten finanziellen Lage sein, andererseits weil es für sie immer wichtiger wird das Alter als aktiv nutzbaren Lebensabschnitt zu betrachten und diesen ausgiebig zu nutzen. Das ist jedoch individuell abhängig von den Ressourcen des Einzelnen. Abhängig davon ist auch das soziale Netzwerk, dessen Ausprägung bis zum jeweiligen Lebensstand erfolgt und dann von der jeweiligen Wohnform bzw. einem Umzug beeinflusst wird. Die jetzige Seniorengeneration verfügt weitreichend über Wohneigentum, bedingt durch die Jahre des Wirtschaftswunders und zahlreiche Erbschaften. Relevanz der Vereinsamung: Im Alter nicht zu vereinsamen ist besonders mit Zunahme der Lebensjahre weitaus schwieriger als in jüngeren Jahren. Die Phasen der Familienplanung und Gründung sind größtenteils abgeschlossen, das Arbeitsleben nach staatlicher Anforderung hinter sich gelassen und die verschiedenen Phasen der Entwicklung meist beendet. Das Leben hat sich gefunden und ein Grad an Zufriedenheit und alltäglicher Routine setzt ein, der nach Möglichkeit nicht mehr verändert werden soll. Die sozialen Kontakte belaufen sich, wenn die Möglichkeit der familiären Nähe nicht gegeben ist, auf die Nachbarschaft und das nähere Wohnumfeld. So kann sich ein Verlust dieser sozialen Kontakte durchaus auf die Vereinsamung des Einzelnen auswirken, da es mit zunehmendem Alter für viele Menschen schwierig ist sich auf neue Gegebenheiten einzustellen. Weniger ist es eine Frage der Anzahl der Kontakte, als dessen Intensität. Damit soll gemeint sein, wie viele persönliche Erlebnisse und Lebensjahre die Personen verbinden und somit eine Trennung nicht förderlich auf die Gesundheit wirken würde. Es kann durchaus auch eine Frage der Verbundenheit zum nachbarschaftlichen Umfeld sein, seien es Tanztees, Skatabende oder ähnliche Freizeitaktivitäten mit Freunden, die einen Wegzug erschweren würden. Zu trennen sind die Menschen in ihrer Art und Schnelligkeit der Eingewöhnung. Wem es im jugendlichen Alter leicht fällt sich schnell umzugewöhnen, der hat auch im Alter weniger Probleme damit. Anzunehmen ist, dass besonders der erhöhte Frauen- bzw. Witwenanteil, den es derzeit in Deutschland in den älteren Generationen gibt, der Gefahr unterliegt zu vereinsamen, aufgrund familiärer oder freundschaftlicher Verluste des Krieges und des fortschreitenden Alters. Wohnen für Hilfe: Um einer drohenden Isolation vorzubeugen gibt es für die eigene Wohnung ein Konzept das nebenbei auch eine Haushaltshilfe bieten kann. In vielen Städten, so auch Berlin, wird an Fachhochschulen und Universitäten studiert. Ein Studium kann teuer werden, so dass auch die Studenten auf Hilfestellungen angewiesen sind. Als wichtiges "Humankapital" der Zukunft, sollte versucht werden, die Studenten an Berlin zu binden und ihnen das Wohnen in einer preiswerten Umgebung zu ermöglichen. Sie können in ihrer Rolle als Hilfs- bzw. Pflegekraft oder zur Geselligkeit bei den Senioren einziehen und mit ihnen in einer Art Wohngemeinschaft wohnen. Oftmals leben die Älteren in großen Wohnungen und suchen nach Lösungen, um einen drohenden Umzug zu vermeiden. Sie können den Studenten kostenlos ein Zimmer anbieten und sie zum "Wohnen für Hilfe" animieren. In der Regel gilt es, für die Quadratmeterzahl des Zimmers entsprechend viele Stunden im Monat zu leisten. Das wären dann für ein Zimmer von 15 Quadratmetern, 15 zu leistende Hilfestunden im Monat. Diese Art des Wohnens ist nicht auf Profit ausgerichtet. Vielmehr stellt sie eine Unterstützungsleistung dar, in der es entscheidend ist, dem jeweils anderen mit den gegebenen Mitteln zu helfen. Das Projekt wird erstmals 1992 in Darmstadt registriert und kommt ursprünglich aus England. Universitätsgefördert gibt es diese Art der Gemeinschaft vorerst nur in Köln. Ähnliche Initiativen gibt es in anderen deutschen Städten wie München, Frankfurt am Main, Münster und Freiburg. In Berlin ist diese Wohnform eher selten und wenig organisiert, jedoch mit Privatanzeigen durchaus zu indizieren. Gesetzlich spricht nichts gegen diese Gemeinschaft. Schwieriger könnte es bei eingestuften Pflegefällen werden.

This edition of the U. S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy continues to reflect the structure and approach of the core national security strategy and policy curriculum at the War College. The fourth edition is published in two volumes that correspond roughly to the Department of National Security and Strategy's core courses: "Theory of War and Strategy" and "National Security Policy and Strategy." Like previous editions, this one is largely an expansion of its predecessor rather than a major rewriting. About a quarter of the chapters are new, and several others have undergone significant rewrites or updates. However, approximately half of the book remains unchanged. Although this is not primarily a textbook, it does reflect both the method and manner we use to teach strategy formulation to America's future senior leaders. The book is not a comprehensive or exhaustive treatment of either strategic theory or the policymaking process. Both volumes are organized to proceed from the general to the specific. Thus the first volume opens with general thoughts on the nature and theory of war and strategy, proceeds to look at the complex aspect of power, and concludes with specific theoretical issues. Similarly, the second volume begins by examining the policy/strategy process, moves to a look at the strategic environment, and concludes with some specific issues. This edition adds several short case studies that can be used to illustrate the primary material in the volume. ; "July 2010." ; Includes bibliographical references. ; V. II. National security policy and strategy -- The national system and environment. Crafting national interests in the 21st century / Alan G. Stolberg -- The national security community, revisited / Walter H. Leach -- Making national security policy in the 21st century / Alan G. Stolberg -- National security and the interagency process / Gabriel Marcella -- PDD-56 : a glass half-full / John F. Troxell -- National security powers : are the checks in balance? / Marybeth P. Ulrich -- National military strategies : 1990-2009 / Richard M. Meinhart -- Present at the counterrevolution : an essay on the 2005 national defense strategy and its impact on policy / Nathan P. Freier -- Securing America from attack : the Defense Department's evolving role after 9/11 / Frank L. Jones -- The appropriate role of intelligence in the making of national security policy / Anthony R. Williams -- The international system and environment. The international system in the 21st century / Alan G. Stolberg -- International relations theory and American grand strategy / Janeen M. Klinger -- Multilateralism and unilateralism / James A. Helis -- Regional studies in a global age / R. Craig Nation -- "Lawyers, guns, and money" : transnational threats and U.S. national security / Paul Rexton Kan -- Ethical issues in war : an overview / Martin L. Cook -- Strategic issues and considerations. Ethics and war in comparative religious perspective / David L. Perry -- International law and the new world order : redefining sovereignty / Thomas W. McShane -- A nationalist's view of lawfare / David G. Bolgiano -- The United States and the International Criminal Court / Thomas W. McShane -- Retooling U.S. public diplomacy as a strategic instrument of foreign policy / Marybeth P. Ulrich -- A primer on civil-military relations for senior leaders / Marybeth P. Ulrich -- New requirements for a new challenge : the military's role in border security / Bert B. Tussing -- Creating strategy in an era of change : the Plains Indian wars / Clayton K.S. Chun -- U.S. relations with North Korea, 1991-2000 / J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. -- Painting yourself into a corner : conflict termination, unconditional surrender, and the case of Japan / Clayton K.S. Chun -- The guerrilla warfare problem : revolutionary war and the Kennedy administration response, 1961-1964 / Frank L. Jones. ; V. I. Theory of war and strategy -- Introduction / J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. -- Strategic theory. Why is strategy difficult? / David Jablonsky -- A survey of the theory of strategy / J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. -- Toward a theory of strategy : Art Lykke and the U.S. Army War College strategy model / H. Richard Yarger -- The strategic appraisal : the key to effective strategy / H. Richard Yarger -- Managing strategic risk / James F. Holcomb -- A theory of victory / J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. -- Toward a strategic theory of terrorism : defining boundaries in the ongoing search for security / Frank L. Jones -- Thucydides and contemporary strategy / R. Craig Nation -- The elements of power. National power / David Jablonsky -- National power / R. Craig Nation -- Strategic communication : wielding the information element of power / Dennis M. Murphy -- Diplomacy as an instrument of national power / Reed J. Fendrick -- Theory and practice of modern diplomacy : origins and development to 1914 / Louis J. Nigro, Jr. -- Economic diplomacy : views of a practitioner / Constance Phlipot -- Economics : a key element of national power / Clayton K.S. Chun -- Political economy and national security : a primer / Janeen M. Klinger -- Military power and the use of force / John F. Troxell -- Strategic issues and considerations. Systems thinking in campaign design / Charles D. Allen and Glenn K. Cunningham -- Intelligence as a tool of strategy / John Aclin -- Air power theory : an analytical narrative from the First World War to the present / Tami Davis Biddle -- John Warden's five ring model and the indirect approach to war / Clayton K. S. Chun -- Naval theory for soldiers / J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. -- The network-centric warfare journey : realizing the power of information / Jeffrey L. Groh -- Space power : a strategic assessment and a way forward / Jeffrey A. Farnsworth. ; This edition of the U. S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy continues to reflect the structure and approach of the core national security strategy and policy curriculum at the War College. The fourth edition is published in two volumes that correspond roughly to the Department of National Security and Strategy's core courses: "Theory of War and Strategy" and "National Security Policy and Strategy." Like previous editions, this one is largely an expansion of its predecessor rather than a major rewriting. About a quarter of the chapters are new, and several others have undergone significant rewrites or updates. However, approximately half of the book remains unchanged. Although this is not primarily a textbook, it does reflect both the method and manner we use to teach strategy formulation to America's future senior leaders. The book is not a comprehensive or exhaustive treatment of either strategic theory or the policymaking process. Both volumes are organized to proceed from the general to the specific. Thus the first volume opens with general thoughts on the nature and theory of war and strategy, proceeds to look at the complex aspect of power, and concludes with specific theoretical issues. Similarly, the second volume begins by examining the policy/strategy process, moves to a look at the strategic environment, and concludes with some specific issues. This edition adds several short case studies that can be used to illustrate the primary material in the volume. ; Mode of access: Internet. ; Previously titled: U.S. Army War College guide to national security policy and strategy.

International audience ; In an attempt to tackle not just youth crime itself, but also the causes of youth crime, the New Labour administration sought to combat social exclusion. It consequently set up a number of social intervention projects such as Sure Start in the most deprived areas of Britain, promised to abolish child poverty before 2010, invested heavily in education, and attempted to reduce the number of unemployed young people via its New Deal for Young People. For the first time, the Youth Justice Board, a special committee charged with overseeing the youth justice system and coordinating social and criminal justice services, was established. A social work approach was to be combined with punishment. Yet, despite these attempt to promote the social inclusion of British youths, in practice they have been 'demonised'. According to the British press, young people are out-of-control, antisocial and violent. The recent 'moral panic' (Cohen, 2001) concerning knife crime seemed to confirm the idea that young people are a threat to society. Even the former justice minister, Jack Straw, declared that most young people who find themselves in prison are not children but 'large, unpleasant thugs' who frighten the general public. Whilst young people have often been the focus of moral panics (Pearson, 1983), it is only recently that panic has been met with such a punitive response which has led to an 800% increase in the number of young people incarcerated since 1992. Despite attempts to adapt the system of juvenile justice to young people, they are increasingly treated like adults. Indeed, the New Labour government's first White Paper on the subject was entitled No More Excuses and the government pledged to eliminate the 'excuse culture' which supposedly dominated the youth justice system. Consequently, there has been a 'dejeuvenalisation' of youth justice policy (Pitts, 2001), marking a rupture with the policy of diversion of youths from the adult justice system which had dominated the criminal justice system since at least the middle of the 19th Century. Similar trends are identifiable in France where there has recently been an erosion of the ordonnance 1945 principle that young people cannot be help fully responsible for their criminal actions. A 2002 law (la loi d'orientation et de programmation pour la justice du 9 septembre) fixes the age of criminal responsibility at 13, leading some experts to speak of the notions of 'premajority'. As in the UK, the rhetoric of responsibilisation has been adopted by Nicolas Sarkozy who has described young people in the criminal justice system as 'black giants from the inner cities'. This paper seeks to determine if the hardening of attitudes to young offenders in France and England can be explained by the same factors. It is a knee-jerk response to moral panic of can it be explained by other socio-economic factors common to the two cultures? ; Dès son arrivée au pouvoir, l'administration néo-travailliste a reconnu que toute tentative pour s'attaquer à la criminalité des jeunes doit se concentrer sur le problème de l'exclusion sociale. Par conséquent, elle a mis en place de nombreux projets Sure Start dans les quartiers les plus défavorisés du Royaume-Uni, elle s'est engagée à éliminer la pauvreté des enfants avant 2020, elle a investi davantage d'argent dans l'éducation, et elle a cherché à réduire le nombre de jeunes au chômage par le biais du New Deal for Young People. Pour les jeunes considérés comme étant les plus susceptibles de sombrer dans la criminalité, le premier gouvernement Blair a créé des Youth Inclusion Programmes qui offrent aux enfants en difficulté un lieu de sociabilité où ils peuvent en outre bénéficier d'une aide scolaire. Pour la première fois, un comité spécial chargé de la justice juvénile, le Youth Justice Board, a été créé afin de coordonner le travail des services sociaux et des services judiciaires ; il a également pour mission de développer une stratégie commune capable de prévenir la criminalité et d'éviter ainsi aux jeunes d'être exposés au système de justice formelle. L'accent est mis tant sur le travail social que sur le châtiment des jeunes délinquants. Or, en dépit de ces tentatives pour favoriser l'inclusion sociale des jeunes britanniques, ces derniers ont souvent été « diabolisés », pour emprunter le terme du Comité des droits de l'enfant de l'ONU. D'après la presse britannique, les jeunes sont de plus en plus difficiles à contrôler, antisociaux et violents. La récente « panique morale » concernant l'apparente montée du nombre d'agressions à l'arme blanche perpétrées par des jeunes semble confirmer l'idée que ces derniers représentent un danger pour la société. Même le ministre de la Justice, Jack Straw, a déclaré que la plupart des enfants qui sont actuellement incarcérés ne sont pas des enfants mais des « gros voyous antipathiques » qui font peur au grand public. Il semblerait bien que la majorité des Britanniques ont peur de la jeunesse, constat confirmé par un rapport récent publié par l'Institute for Public Policy Research. Alors que la jeunesse a souvent fait l'objet de paniques morales dans le passé (Geoffrey Pearson), ce n'est que récemment qu'une telle panique a entraîné une réponse judiciaire aussi punitive, qui se traduit par une augmentation de 800 % du nombre de jeunes âgés de moins de 15 ans incarcérés depuis 1992. Malgré les tentatives d'adapter le système de justice pénale aux jeunes, leur traitement judiciaire est actuellement de plus en plus semblable à celui qu'on réservait autrefois aux adultes. En effet, dès ses premiers jours au pouvoir, le gouvernement de Tony Blair s'est engagé à éliminer la « culture d'absolution » en faveur d'un système judiciaire qui met l'accent sur la responsabilité individuelle des jeunes et de leurs parents. Par conséquent, on assiste actuellement à une « déjuvénilisation » de la politique pénale, se traduisant par une rupture nette avec l'orthodoxie pénale en vigueur depuis le milieu du XIXe siècle, d'après laquelle les jeunes délinquants doivent être soumis à un régime spécial, si possible en dehors du système pénal. Les mêmes tendances sont identifiables en France, où l'on a récemment constaté un durcissement de la loi à l'égard des mineurs et l'érosion de l'excuse de minorité instaurée par l'ordonnance de 1945. Tout particulièrement, la loi d'orientation et de programmation pour la justice du 9 septembre 2002 affirme la responsabilité pénale des mineurs à partir de l'âge de 13 ans, ce qui incite certains commentateurs à parler de l'invention de la notion de « prémajorité ». La rhétorique de responsabilisation est adoptée par Nicolas Sarkozy, à l'instar de ses homologues britanniques (sur le même ton que Jack Straw, il a déclaré qu'on n'a pas affaire ici à des mineurs mais à des « géants noirs des banlieues »). Cet article s'attache à déterminer si le durcissement à l'égard des jeunes délinquants en France et en Angleterre peut s'expliquer par les mêmes facteurs. Est-ce qu'il s'agit d'une réponse à la panique publique ou peut-il s'expliquer par la présence d'autres facteurs socio-politiques communs aux deux cultures ?

Strategy matters' - 'Strategie ist wichtig' - dies ist der Leitspruch, der dieses Werk einleiten möchte. Die fortschreitende Digitalisierung und das Internet haben das Potenzial, unsere Welt so grundlegend zu verändern, dass sich jeder Unternehmer heute die Grundsatzfrage stellen muss, welches Geschäft und wie er es künftig betreiben will. Wer auf Dauer bestehen will, benötigt eine ausgeklügelte Strategie. Alle Industrien sind von den Veränderungen betroffen, vor allem aber die Medienindustrie. Fast jedes Produkt, von Büchern über Musik bis hin zu Filmen kann in digitaler Form über das Internet angeboten werden. Das tägliche Leben findet immer mehr im Internet statt. Längst ist der Wandel zur Informationsgesellschaft vollzogen und das Internet durchdringt alle Bevölkerungsgruppen. Auch ältere Menschen entdecken nun den Nutzen des Web für sich. Der Kunde von heute vergleicht nicht nur Produkte und Preise, sondern auch Hersteller, Shops, Logistikdienstleister. Er liest die Erfahrungsberichte, Ideen und Kommentare anderer Kunden. Ab dem Jahr 1993, mit der Einführung World Wide Web und dem grafikfähigen Webbrowser, wächst die Zahl der Internet User rapide. Ebenso ungebremst, bis heute, ist der Wachstum des elektronischen Marktplatzes und seiner Umsätze. Frische Ideen sind erforderlich um Chancen zu nutzen und sich im Wettbewerb zu behaupten, besonders im Endkundengeschäft. Die vorliegende Diplomarbeit E-Business Strategien zur Entwicklung erfolgversprechender Online-Retailing-Systeme veranschaulicht den Weg zum Erfolg auf den digitalen Märkten theoretisch und praktisch. Motivation: Wir gehen nun mit großen Schritten auf das Jahr 2010 zu. Von einem Ende der derzeit vorherrschenden Weltwirtschaftskrise kann noch keine Rede sein. Im Gegenteil - es kündigt sich die nächste Krise an. Hierzulande investiert man derweil in Informationsinfrastruktur. Es gilt den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland zu stärken. Auch auf dem Land werden innerhalb der nächsten 2 bis 3 Jahren die Haushalte über Breitbandinternetzugänge verfügen. Gegenüber den klassischen Produktionsfaktoren Arbeit, Boden, Kapital wird die Information nun mehr und mehr an Wert gewinnen. Wirtschaftliche und soziale Verhältnisse und auch die Arbeitsbedingungen werden sich ähnlich stark wie in der Zeit der industriellen Revolution verändern. In den Datenbanken von Google, Amazon, Netflix und iTunes lassen viele Terrabytes an Informationen bereits heute die Umrisse der Wirtschaft des einundzwanzigsten Jahrhunderts erkennen. Vor diesem Hintergrund entwickelte sich als treibende Kraft für diese wissenschaftliche Arbeit die Faszination für die Wirtschaft der Zukunft. Zielsetzung: Für Unternehmen sind Investitionen in Wachstumsmärkte besonders gewinnbringend. Die Zahl der Neugründungen von Webfirmen welche auf der Web 2.0 - Welle mitreiten wollen, ist bisher ungebremst. Im Netz kann prinzipiell alles verkauft werden. Die Palette reicht von Waren und Dienstleistungen bis hin zu digitalen Gütern, deren Gesamtanzahl derzeit noch nicht exploriert werden kann. Am Anfang jedes Erfolges steht jedoch die Strategie. Beim Stichwort Strategie fällt dem Wirtschaftswissenschaftler direkt Michel Porter und sein Werk Wettbewerbsstrategie ein. Jedoch führen klassische Strategien im Internet nicht zum gewünschten Erfolg. Ebenso sind viele Instrumente zur Entwicklung von Strategien, Planung und Informationssystemen inzwischen überholt. Die digitale Strategie stellt keine reine Planungsmethodik mehr dar. Sie ist ein neues Unternehmensmodell. Das größte Geheimnis ihres Erfolges liegt in der Innovation. In hohen Wachstumsraten der B2C-E-Commerce-Umsätze werden voraussichtlich die nächsten Jahrzehnte weiter anhalten. Wie man nun das neue Online-Retailing ins Unternehmen integriert, für mehr Umsatz nutzt oder gar eine neue digitale Geschäftsidee umsetzt, ist Gegenstand dieser Arbeit. Vorgehen: Die vorliegende Arbeit ist einschließlich der zum Thema hinführenden Einleitung in acht Kapitel eingeteilt. Zunächst werden die betriebswirtschaftlichen Grundlagen und Strategieansätze erläutert. Vertriebsmöglichkeiten mit verschiedenen Shopsystemen und Technologien werden aufgezeigt und die Integration in das Unternehmen, beschrieben. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt neben dem E-Marketing, auf den rechtlichen Aspekten des Onlinehandels. Im darauffolgenden Praxisteil wird der Onlinehandel mit einem digitalen Gut und einer eigens entworfenen Webshop-Lösung detailliert abgehandelt. Abgeschlossen wird die Arbeit mit einer Zusammenfassung in Kapitel acht. Dabei sollen die Ergebnisse und Erkenntnisse der vorangegangenen Kapitel noch einmal zusammengefasst und ein Ausblick auf künftige Entwicklungen und Trends im Onlinehandel gegeben werden.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: 1.Einleitung1 1.1Problemstellung1 1.2Motivation2 1.3Zielsetzung2 1.4Vorgehen3 2.Entwicklung zum Online Retailing4 2.1Gesellschaftlicher Wandel4 2.1.1Zyklentheorie4 2.1.2Der fünfte Kondratieff Zyklus - das IT-Zeitalter5 2.1.3Reorganisationsprozesse der Gesellschaft7 2.1.4Ausblick auf den sechsten Kondratieff7 2.2Innovationen8 2.2.1Erfordernis von Innovationen8 2.2.2Arten von Innovationen9 2.2.3Innovationen im Wettbewerb9 2.3E-Business9 2.4Online Retailing11 2.4.1E-Shop Systeme12 2.4.2Open Source Shops12 2.4.3Kauf-Lösungen13 2.4.4Miet-Shops13 2.4.5Eigenentwicklung14 2.5Softwaresysteme15 2.5.1Magento16 2.5.2Xt:Commerce17 2.5.3OXID E-Shop18 3.Vertrieb mit Online Shops20 3.1Die elektronische Wertschöpfungskette20 3.2Das 4 C Modell20 3.2.1Content21 3.2.2Commerce21 3.2.3Connection22 3.2.4Context22 3.3Produktpolitk22 3.3.1E-Commerce Eignung von Produkten22 3.3.2Steigende Chancen für digitale Produkte23 3.4Der Long Tail24 3.4.1Analyse des Long Tail25 3.4.2Der Long Tail im Online Retailing26 3.4.3Demokratisierung28 3.5Risikoverteilung bei E-Business Projekten29 4.Grundlagen des Online-Marketings32 4.1Der Online Marketing Prozess32 4.1.1Situationsanalyse32 4.1.2Planung33 4.1.3Durchführung34 4.1.4Kontroll- und Rückkopplungsphase34 4.2E-Mail Marketing34 4.2.1Kostenvorteile mit E-Mail-Marketing35 4.2.2E-Mail die beliebteste Internet-Anwendung35 4.2.3Rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen E-Mail Marketing36 4.2.4E-Mail Marketing Systeme37 4.3Sitepromotion38 4.3.1Suchmaschinenoptimierung SEO38 4.3.2Suchmaschinenmarketing SEM39 4.3.3Kostenmanagement bei SEM40 4.3.4Linkmarketing41 4.3.5Saubere Programmierung42 4.3.6Anforderungen an den Content43 4.3.7Aktualität43 4.4Pressearbeit43 5.Rechtliche Aspekte des Online Retailing45 5.1Die Rechtslage45 5.1.1Relevante Rechtsbereiche45 5.1.2Wichtige Gesetze für Neue Medien46 5.1.2.1Teledienstegesetz (TDG)47 5.1.2.2Teledienste-Datenschutzgesetz (TDDSG)47 5.1.2.3Mediendienstestaatsvertrag (MdStV)48 5.2Problematik der Einordnung48 5.2.1Impressumspflicht49 5.2.2Geschäftsmäßigkeit einer Webpräsenz51 5.2.3Geschäftsmäßige Teledienste51 5.2.4Erreichbarkeit des Impressums52 5.2.5Vorvertragliche Widerrufsbelehrung52 5.2.6Wortlautvorschlag53 5.2.7Allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen54 6.E-Payment55 6.1Erfordernis von E-Payment55 6.2Umsatztreiber E-Payment56 6.3E-Payment als Innovtion57 7.Rotemahnung - Ein One-Product-Shop58 7.1Vorstellung der Firma EDV-Service Samirae58 7.2Entstehung der Idee58 7.3Entwicklung59 7.3.1Bedürfnisse der Kunden59 7.3.2Vorschriften zum Mahnverfahren59 7.3.3Produktinnovation59 7.4Konkurrenzanalyse60 7.5Kundennutzen62 7.6Projektdurchführung62 7.6.1Objekt Hosting62 7.6.2Objekt Programm63 7.6.3Objekt Design64 7.6.4Preismodell65 7.7Integriertes Marketing66 7.7.1SEO SEM67 7.7.2Public Relations68 7.7.3E-Mail Marketing mit GSA E-Mail Spider69 7.7.4Dialogmarketing per Telefon und Fax72 7.7.5Viralmarketing72 7.8Qualitätssicherung und Kontrolle73 7.9Umsatzerwartung und Prognose75 8.Fazit und Ausblick76 Anhangsverzeichnis77 Darstellungsverzeichnis78 Abkürzungsverzeichnis80 Formelverzeichnis82 Literaturverzeichnis83 Tabellenverzeichnis88Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 5.2.2, Geschäftsmäßigkeit einer Webpräsenz: Die Geschäftsmäßigkeit einer Internetseite, ist laut Rechtssprechung und Literatur sehr schnell gegeben. Schon wenn man wie beim Bloggen regelmäßig etwas online stellt oder an einem Partner bzw. Afiliate Programm teilnimmt, ist die Geschäftmäßigkeit der Webpräsenz gegeben. Es kommt also nicht darauf an, ob mit der Webpräsenz Geld verdienen wird. Geschäftsmäßig sind im Regelfall: Produktpräsentationen, Online-Shops, journalistische Angebote, Selbstdarstellungen von Unternehmen, Diskussionsforen oder Mailing-Listen. Webseiten öffentlicher und gemeinnützige Unternehmen wie Krankenhäuser, Feuerwehr, Bibliotheken und Schwimmbäder fallen ebenfalls unter die Geschäftsmäßigkeit. Nur wenn eine Webseite ausschließlich ganz privaten und familiären Zwecken dient, ist sie nicht geschäftsmäßig und es besteht keine Pflicht zur Anbieterkennzeichnung. Aus Gründen der präventiven Risikovermeidung ist angeraten, trotzdem eine Kennzeichnung vorzunehmen. Geschäftsmäßige Teledienste: Das Teledienstgesetz (TDG) spricht – nicht nur in Zusammenhang mit der Anbieterkennung – immer wieder von geschäftsmäßigen Telediensten. Die Auslegung von geschäftsmäßig ist dabei sehr weit zu verstehen. Nicht nur unmittelbar kommerziell orientierte Webangebote wie Shops fallen darunter, sondern auch jede Art von Angebot, das die Bekanntheit des Anbieters steigert und ihm damit sekundär geschäftlichen Nutzen bringen kann. Es muss nicht einmal eine Gewinnabsicht bestehen. Daher werden auch Vereine oder viele Gesellschaften des bürgerlichen Rechts als geschäftsmäßig bewertet. Erreichbarkeit des Impressums: Laut Gesetz muss die Anbieterkennung leicht erkennbar, unmittelbar erreichbar und ständig verfügbar sein. In der Praxis bedeutet das, dass die Impressumsseite auf jeder Webseite eines Webangebots direkt verlinkt sein sollte. Da die meisten Websites über irgendeine Form von fester Navigation verfügen, sollte das Impressum am besten ein eigener Punkt in der Navigationsstruktur sein. Wenn die Navigation auf JavaScript basiert, sollte sichergestellt werden, dass Links zum Impressum auch ohne JavaScript funktionieren. Auch der Fußbereich einer Webseite kann dazu dienen, einen Link zum Impressum unterzubringen. Ein solcher Link ist allemal sinnvoller als die auch hierzulande üblichen, aber juristisch überhaupt nicht relevanten ©-Angaben. Das geistige Urheberrecht greift ohnehin und das amerikanische Copyright, welches durch das ©-Zeichen ausgedrückt wird, ist bei deutschen Sites unmaßgeblich. Vorvertragliche Widerrufsbelehrung: Während die Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen (AGB) von allen Anbietern, die mit einer Website unmittelbar eine Geschäftstätigkeit ausüben (z.B. Shop-Betreiber), meist ohne Aufforderung bereitgestellt werden, ist dies bei der sogenannten vorvertraglichen Widerrufsbelehrung nicht so selbstverständlich. Diese gehört jedoch zu den Pflichten eines jeden Webshop-Betreibers, auch dann, wenn es sich nur um nebenberuflich betriebenes Kleingewerbe handelt. Im Gegensatz zu den Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen, die in aller Regel aufrufbar sind, dem Anwender aber nicht vor Abschluss eines Vertrages aufgezwungen werden, ist das bei der vorvertraglichen Widerrufsbelehrung Vorschrift. Diese muss dem Kunden, bevor er eine Bestellung endgültig tätigt, zwangsweise vorgesetzt werden, ähnlich, wie bei Softwareinstallationen eine Dialogseite den Lizenzvertrag enthält, der meist mit einer expliziten Aktion (z.B. Anklicken eines Radio-Buttons 'ich akzeptiere') verbunden ist. Basis ist vor allem § 312 des BGB. Danach hat ein Unternehmer den Verbraucher rechtzeitig vor Abschluss des Fernabsatzvertrages klar und verständlich über dessen Widerrufsrechte zu informieren. Dabei ist keine Wiedergabe von Gesetzestexten verlangt, sondern der Hinweis darauf, dass der Kunde das Recht hat, vom Kaufvertrag innerhalb einer gesetzlich geregelten Frist (derzeit zwei Wochen) ohne Angabe von Gründen zurückzutreten. Diese Information muss dem Benutzer eines webbasierten Shops, der gerade dabei ist, eine Ware zu bestellen, aufgezwungen werden. Zwischen Warenkorbübersicht, Eingabe von Lieferadresse, in jedem Fall aber vor der endgültigen Kaufbestätigung muss dieser Hinweis angezeigt werden und zwar so vordergründig, dass der Kunde praktisch keine Möglichkeit hat, den Hinweis zu ignorieren. Der Rechtssprechung zufolge sollte der Hinweis auf derjenigen Webseite stehen, auf Grund derer sich der Kunde zum Kauf entschließt. Wortlautvorschlag: Ein Hinweis zur Widerrufsbelehrung könnte folgenden Text haben: Widerrufsbelehrung - Widerrufsrecht: Sie können den hier zustande kommenden Vertrag innerhalb von zwei Wochen ohne Angabe von Gründen in Textform (z.B. Brief, Fax, E-Mail) oder durch Rücksendung der Sache widerrufen. Die Frist beginnt frühestens mit Erhalt dieser Belehrung. Zur Wahrung der Widerrufsfrist genügt die rechtzeitige Absendung des Widerrufs oder der Sache. Der Widerruf ist zu richten an: [Name/Anschrift]. Sie können den Widerruf auch per Telefax unter der Nummer [Faxnummer] oder per E-Mail unter [Mailadresse] erklären. Können Sie uns die erhaltene Ware nicht oder nur in verschlechtertem Zustand zurückgeben, müssen Sie uns insoweit ggf. Wertersatz leisten. Dies gilt nicht, wenn die Verschlechterung ausschließlich auf eine Warenprüfung - wie etwa auch im Ladengeschäft üblich - zurückzuführen ist. Paketversandfähige Waren können Sie auf unsere Kosten und Gefahr an die folgende Adresse zurückzusenden: [Name/Anschrift]. Nicht paketversandfähige Waren werden bei Ihnen abgeholt. Bei Internetauktionen, etwa in eBay, muss zwischen privaten Versteigerungen (alte Gegenstände loswerden) und geschäftsmäßig betriebenen Versteigerungen unterschieden werden. Die Grenzen können dabei durchaus fließend sein, etwa wenn Erben im größeren Stil Nachlass versteigern. Auf jeden Fall unterliegt jeder, der bei eBay einen echten Shop betreibt, in vollem Umfang den Regelungen des Fernabsatzgesetzes und damit auch der Vorschrift der vorvertraglichen Widerrufsbelehrung. Allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen: Allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen müssen zunächst einmal wirksam in den Vertrag miteinbezogen werden damit Sie gelten. Dazu muss auf ein Hinweis auf die Geltung der AGB vorhanden sein. Ein Kunde muss zudem eine zumutbare Möglichkeit der Kenntnisnahme haben. Es muss eine Möglichkeit muss gegeben sein, zumutbar vom Inhalt der AGB Kenntnis zu nehmen z.B. durch Abrufbarkeit auf der Internetseite über einen gut sichtbaren Link. Nun muss noch die Einverständnis des Kunden gegeben sein. Diese kann er z.B. durch Aktivierung eines Radiobuttons mit der Aufschrift 'Ich stimme den AGB zu' erklären. Überraschungsklauseln der Gültigkeit der AGB entgegen. Die AGB dürfen ebenfalls nicht in einem Vertragswerk 'versteckt' werden.

International audience ; In an attempt to tackle not just youth crime itself, but also the causes of youth crime, the New Labour administration sought to combat social exclusion. It consequently set up a number of social intervention projects such as Sure Start in the most deprived areas of Britain, promised to abolish child poverty before 2010, invested heavily in education, and attempted to reduce the number of unemployed young people via its New Deal for Young People. For the first time, the Youth Justice Board, a special committee charged with overseeing the youth justice system and coordinating social and criminal justice services, was established. A social work approach was to be combined with punishment. Yet, despite these attempt to promote the social inclusion of British youths, in practice they have been 'demonised'. According to the British press, young people are out-of-control, antisocial and violent. The recent 'moral panic' (Cohen, 2001) concerning knife crime seemed to confirm the idea that young people are a threat to society. Even the former justice minister, Jack Straw, declared that most young people who find themselves in prison are not children but 'large, unpleasant thugs' who frighten the general public. Whilst young people have often been the focus of moral panics (Pearson, 1983), it is only recently that panic has been met with such a punitive response which has led to an 800% increase in the number of young people incarcerated since 1992. Despite attempts to adapt the system of juvenile justice to young people, they are increasingly treated like adults. Indeed, the New Labour government's first White Paper on the subject was entitled No More Excuses and the government pledged to eliminate the 'excuse culture' which supposedly dominated the youth justice system. Consequently, there has been a 'dejeuvenalisation' of youth justice policy (Pitts, 2001), marking a rupture with the policy of diversion of youths from the adult justice system which had dominated the criminal justice system since at least the middle of the 19th Century. Similar trends are identifiable in France where there has recently been an erosion of the ordonnance 1945 principle that young people cannot be help fully responsible for their criminal actions. A 2002 law (la loi d'orientation et de programmation pour la justice du 9 septembre) fixes the age of criminal responsibility at 13, leading some experts to speak of the notions of 'premajority'. As in the UK, the rhetoric of responsibilisation has been adopted by Nicolas Sarkozy who has described young people in the criminal justice system as 'black giants from the inner cities'. This paper seeks to determine if the hardening of attitudes to young offenders in France and England can be explained by the same factors. It is a knee-jerk response to moral panic of can it be explained by other socio-economic factors common to the two cultures? ; Dès son arrivée au pouvoir, l'administration néo-travailliste a reconnu que toute tentative pour s'attaquer à la criminalité des jeunes doit se concentrer sur le problème de l'exclusion sociale. Par conséquent, elle a mis en place de nombreux projets Sure Start dans les quartiers les plus défavorisés du Royaume-Uni, elle s'est engagée à éliminer la pauvreté des enfants avant 2020, elle a investi davantage d'argent dans l'éducation, et elle a cherché à réduire le nombre de jeunes au chômage par le biais du New Deal for Young People. Pour les jeunes considérés comme étant les plus susceptibles de sombrer dans la criminalité, le premier gouvernement Blair a créé des Youth Inclusion Programmes qui offrent aux enfants en difficulté un lieu de sociabilité où ils peuvent en outre bénéficier d'une aide scolaire. Pour la première fois, un comité spécial chargé de la justice juvénile, le Youth Justice Board, a été créé afin de coordonner le travail des services sociaux et des services judiciaires ; il a également pour mission de développer une stratégie commune capable de prévenir la criminalité et d'éviter ainsi aux jeunes d'être exposés au système de justice formelle. L'accent est mis tant sur le travail social que sur le châtiment des jeunes délinquants. Or, en dépit de ces tentatives pour favoriser l'inclusion sociale des jeunes britanniques, ces derniers ont souvent été « diabolisés », pour emprunter le terme du Comité des droits de l'enfant de l'ONU. D'après la presse britannique, les jeunes sont de plus en plus difficiles à contrôler, antisociaux et violents. La récente « panique morale » concernant l'apparente montée du nombre d'agressions à l'arme blanche perpétrées par des jeunes semble confirmer l'idée que ces derniers représentent un danger pour la société. Même le ministre de la Justice, Jack Straw, a déclaré que la plupart des enfants qui sont actuellement incarcérés ne sont pas des enfants mais des « gros voyous antipathiques » qui font peur au grand public. Il semblerait bien que la majorité des Britanniques ont peur de la jeunesse, constat confirmé par un rapport récent publié par l'Institute for Public Policy Research. Alors que la jeunesse a souvent fait l'objet de paniques morales dans le passé (Geoffrey Pearson), ce n'est que récemment qu'une telle panique a entraîné une réponse judiciaire aussi punitive, qui se traduit par une augmentation de 800 % du nombre de jeunes âgés de moins de 15 ans incarcérés depuis 1992. Malgré les tentatives d'adapter le système de justice pénale aux jeunes, leur traitement judiciaire est actuellement de plus en plus semblable à celui qu'on réservait autrefois aux adultes. En effet, dès ses premiers jours au pouvoir, le gouvernement de Tony Blair s'est engagé à éliminer la « culture d'absolution » en faveur d'un système judiciaire qui met l'accent sur la responsabilité individuelle des jeunes et de leurs parents. Par conséquent, on assiste actuellement à une « déjuvénilisation » de la politique pénale, se traduisant par une rupture nette avec l'orthodoxie pénale en vigueur depuis le milieu du XIXe siècle, d'après laquelle les jeunes délinquants doivent être soumis à un régime spécial, si possible en dehors du système pénal. Les mêmes tendances sont identifiables en France, où l'on a récemment constaté un durcissement de la loi à l'égard des mineurs et l'érosion de l'excuse de minorité instaurée par l'ordonnance de 1945. Tout particulièrement, la loi d'orientation et de programmation pour la justice du 9 septembre 2002 affirme la responsabilité pénale des mineurs à partir de l'âge de 13 ans, ce qui incite certains commentateurs à parler de l'invention de la notion de « prémajorité ». La rhétorique de responsabilisation est adoptée par Nicolas Sarkozy, à l'instar de ses homologues britanniques (sur le même ton que Jack Straw, il a déclaré qu'on n'a pas affaire ici à des mineurs mais à des « géants noirs des banlieues »). Cet article s'attache à déterminer si le durcissement à l'égard des jeunes délinquants en France et en Angleterre peut s'expliquer par les mêmes facteurs. Est-ce qu'il s'agit d'une réponse à la panique publique ou peut-il s'expliquer par la présence d'autres facteurs socio-politiques communs aux deux cultures ?

Informations de base sur la République du Cap Vert L'archipel du Cap Vert est constitué par dix îles et huit îlots situés à environ 500 km de la côte occidentale africaine. Sa superficie est de 4033 km2. Les îles sont d'origine volcanique et sont implantées sur la zone sud-ouest de la plate-forme sénégalaise sur la croûte océanique d'âge comprise entre 140 et 120 millions d'années. Le relief est très accidenté dans les îles les plus jeunes (Fogo, Santiago, Santo Antão et S. Nicolau), mais relativement plat dans les îles plus anciennes (Maio, Boavista e Sal). Les sols sont peu évolués, avec des horizons pédologiques peu différenciés. Par sa situation géographique, dans une zone d'aridité météorologique, le climat du Cap Vert est sahélien du type tropical sec, soumis aux vents alizés du nordest, avec des températures modérées (environ 24ºC) et une faible amplitude thermique dû à l'environnement atlantique. Les précipitations sont généralement faibles sur l'ensemble du pays, ne dépassant pas les 300 mm de moyenne annuelle pour les 65% du territoire situé à moins de 400 m d'altitude. Les zones sous l'influence des alizés étant encore plus sèches (150 mm de moyenne annuelle). Sur les versants situés à plus de 500 m d'altitude faisant face aux alizés, on peut atteindre ou dépasser les 700 mm. Les pluies sont irrégulières et généralement mal distribuées dans le temps et dans l'espace. Le peuplement et son influence sur la biodiversité Après leur colonisation par les humains au cours du XVème siècle, les îles du Cap Vert ont été soumises à une forte exploitation des ressources biologiques. Des facteurs anthropiques avec conséquences directe et indirecte sur la végétation, tels que l'agriculture pluviale, dans la plupart des cas pratiquée sur les fortes pentes des versants, l'utilisation du bois de feu, le surpâturage et l'introduction des espèces exotiques ont contribué à la dégradation graduelle de la végétation et des habitats de l'archipel. Le rôle de ces facteurs a été encore accentué par l'action passif des facteurs intrinsèques tels que l'insularité et la fraction importante du territoire occupée par des zones arides et semi-arides. La végétation des zones arides et semi-arides qui occupent, au Cap Vert, plus de 70% du sol arable du territoire, a un faible pouvoir de régénération. Sa flore insulaire est sensible par le fait d'avoir évolué en l'absence de prédateurs et d'être issues de petites populations avec une diversité génétique limitée et par une aire de dissémination très limitée. La diversité des espèces Il existe au Cap Vert, 110 espèces de bryophytes dont 15 sont endémiques. Du total, 36% sont extinctes ou menacées. Parmi les endémiques 40% sont menacées. Les espèces d'angiospermes sont en nombre de 240 dont 45 sont endémiques. A noter que 27% du total sont extinctes ou menacées. Parmi les endémiques, 54% sont en danger de disparition. La biodiversité animale cours des risques majeures de survie. Des 37 espèces de gastéropodes existantes, 15 sont endémiques dont 67% sont menacées. Les arachnides sont au nombre de 111 dont 46 sont endémiques. Parmi les endémiques, 78% sont menacées. Il existe 470 espèces d'insectes (coléoptères) dont 155 sont endémiques. 84% des taxa endémiques sont menacées. On suppose que du total des 470 espèces, 64% sont disparues ou en danger. L'état actuel de la faune et de la flore a été donné par la Première Liste Rouge du Cap Vert, publiée en 1996 et qui indique un certain nombre de statistiques effrayantes : sont menacées plus de 26% des angiospermes, plus de 40% des bryophytes, plus de 65% des ptéridophytes et plus de 29% des lichens ; plus de 47% des oiseaux, 25% des reptiles terrestres, 64% des coléoptères, plus de 57% des arachnides, plus de 59% des mollusques terrestres. L'archipel du Cap Vert est situé dans la zone tropicale où, selon Nunan (1992), si on exclue les espèces migratoires on peu compter environ 273 espèces de poissons, dont 70% sont endémiques. La liste des espèces de poissons des îles du Cap Vert est assez diversifiée et compte environ une centaine d'espèces appartenant à différentes familles. En matière de diversité biologique marine l'exploitation des ressources dans la ZEE (Zone Economique Exclusive) sont encore loin d'atteindre le potentiel estimé. Néanmoins, il existe quelques espèces qui sont en danger, notamment les tortues et les langoustes. Dans les eaux capverdiennes il existe 5 espèces de tortues : Dermocelys coriacea, Chelonia mydas, Eretmochelys imbricata, Caretta caretta et Lepidochelys olivacea. Les tortues sont d'une façon générale soumises à une exploitation irrationnelle depuis des décades. La viande et les oeufs, surtout de la tortue mâle sont très appréciés. La carapace est utilisée dans la bijouterie (boucles, bagues, colliers, etc.). Parmi les quatre familles de langoustes connues, l'archipel du Cap Vert recèle deux : la Palinuridae (langouste rose, verte et marron) et la Scyllaride (langouste de pierre). A signaler également une espèce endémique, le Palinuris charlestoni. Toutes les espèces existantes au Cap Vert sont exploitées, souvent à la limite de la durabilité. La République du Cap Vert et la Convention sur la Biodiversité Le Cap Vert a signé la Convention sur la biodiversité en juin 1992 et l'a ratifié en mars 1995. Pour remplir les obligations découlant de l'adoption de la Convention, le pays a complété sa Stratégie Nationale et Plan d'Action sur la Biodiversité en février 1999. Une institution responsable pour la mise en oeuvre de la politique nationale en matière de l'environnement a été créée, le Secrétariat Exécutif pour l'Environnement (SEPA). Le Plan d'Action National a identifié 21 objectifs divisés en huit groupes thèmatiques et contient des activités jusqu'à l'an 2010. Parallèlement à ces actions, la Loi de Base pour l'Environnement, le Code de l'Environnement, le Code de l'Eau et le Code Forestier ont été adoptés. Ce nouveau Code Forestier a été élaboré afin d'actualiser les normes pour une gestion durable des ressources et le transfert des compétences aux régions et communautés. Au niveau stratégique le Cap Vert a élaboré son Programme d'Action National pour l'Environnement (PANA) et a développé le Programme d'Action National de Lutte Contre la Désertification (PAN-LCD) en utilisant l'approche participative faisant appel à tous les acteurs de la société civile y inclus les associations et ONG. Au niveau international le Cap Vert a adhéré aux conventions telles que la biodiversité, les changements climatiques et le contrôle de la désertification. Le pays a également signé les conventions suivantes : Convention des Nations Unies sur le Droit de la Mer, Convention relative à la Protection du Patrimoine Mondial Culturel et Naturel, Convention de Bâle sur les mouvements trans-frontaliers, Convention internationale pour la Prévention de la pollution par des bateaux, Convention de Vienne sur la protection de la couche de l'ozone, Protocole de Montréal sur les substances qui appauvrissent la couche de l'ozone. La mise en oeuvre de la stratégie nationale sur la Diversité Biologique permettra une meilleure gestion de l'eau, des ressources naturelles et des espaces, l'introduction de nouvelles espèces et de nouvelles technologies alternatives pour l'agriculture et l'élevage ainsi que la création de nouveaux emplois alternatifs, à partir des activités génératrices de revenus, et de diminuer ainsi, la pression sur les ressources naturelles. ; GEF/PNUD

BACKGROUND: Although mental disorders are significant predictors of educational attainment throughout the entire educational career, most research on mental disorders among students has focused on the primary and secondary school years. METHOD: The World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys were used to examine the associations of mental disorders with college entry and attrition by comparing college students (n = 1572) and non-students in the same age range (18-22 years; n = 4178), including non-students who recently left college without graduating (n = 702) based on surveys in 21 countries (four low/lower-middle income, five upper-middle-income, one lower-middle or upper-middle at the times of two different surveys, and 11 high income). Lifetime and 12-month prevalence and age-of-onset of DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavioral and substance disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). RESULTS: One-fifth (20.3%) of college students had 12-month DSM-IV/CIDI disorders; 83.1% of these cases had pre-matriculation onsets. Disorders with pre-matriculation onsets were more important than those with post-matriculation onsets in predicting subsequent college attrition, with substance disorders and, among women, major depression the most important such disorders. Only 16.4% of students with 12-month disorders received any 12-month healthcare treatment for their mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Mental disorders are common among college students, have onsets that mostly occur prior to college entry, in the case of pre-matriculation disorders are associated with college attrition, and are typically untreated. Detection and effective treatment of these disorders early in the college career might reduce attrition and improve educational and psychosocial functioning. ; The WHO WMH Survey Initiative is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; R01 MH070884), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Pfizer Foundation, the US Public Health Service (R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864 and R01 DA016558), the Fogarty International Center (FIRCA R03-TW006481), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Eli Lilly and Company, Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, GlaxoSmithKline and Bristol-Myers Squibb. We thank the staff of the WMH Data Collection and Data Analysis Coordination Centres for assistance with instrumentation, fieldwork and consultation on data analysis. None of the funders had any role in the design, analysis, interpretation of results, or preparation of this paper. This report was prepared under the auspices of the WHO International Classification of Diseases-11, chapter 5 (Mental and Behavioural Disorders) epidemiology working group, which is co-chaired by Somnath Chatterji and Ronald C. Kessler. The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent the views of the sponsoring organizations, agencies or governments. The 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing is funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. The São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey is supported by the State of São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Thematic Project Grant 03/00204-3. The Bulgarian Epidemiological Study of common mental disorders (EPIBUL) is supported by the Ministry of Health and Chinese WMH Survey Initiative is supported by the Pfizer Foundation. The Shenzhen Mental Health Survey is supported by the Shenzhen Bureau of Health and the Shenzhen Bureau of Science, Technology, and Information. The Colombian Natioal Study of Mental Health (NSMH) is supported by the Ministry of Social Protection. The Mental Health Secretary of Health of Medellín. The ESEMeD projec is funded by the European Commission (contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123 and EAHC 20081308), the Piedmont Region (Italy), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (FIS 00/0028), Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain (SAF 2000-158-CE), Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBER CB06/02/0046, RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP), and other local agencies and by an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline. Implementation of the Iraq Mental Health Survey (IMHS) and data entry were carried out by the staff of the Iraqi Ministries of Health and Planning with direct support from the Iraqi IMHS team with funding from both the Japanese and European Funds through the United Nations Development Group Iraq Trust Fund. The Lebanese National Mental Health Survey (L.E.B.A.N.O.N.) is supported by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, the WHO (Lebanon), National Institutes of Health/ Fogarty International Center (R03 TW006481-01), the Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Award for Medical Sciences, anonymous private donations to IDRAAC, Lebanon, and unrestricted grants from AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, laxoSmithKline, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Cilag, Lundbeck, Novartis and Servier. The Mexican National Comorbidity Survey is supported by The National Institute of Psychiatry Ramon de la Fuente (INPRFMDIES 4280) and by the National Council on Science and Technology (CONACyT-G30544-H), with supplemental support from the PAHO. C.B. has received funding from the (Mexican) National Council of Science and Technology (grant CB-2010-01-155221). Te Rau Hinengaro: The New Zealand Mental Health Survey is supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Alcohol Advisory Council and the Health Research Council. The Nigerian Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing is supported by the WHO (Geneva), the WHO (Nigeria) and the Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria. The Northern Ireland Study of Mental Health was funded by the Health & Social Care Research & Development Division of the Public Health Agency. The Peruvian WMH Study was funded by the National Institute of Health of the Ministry of Health of Peru. The Polish project Epidemiology of Mental Health and Access to Care – EZOP Poland – was carried out by the Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology in Warsaw in consortium with the Department of Psychiatry – Medical University in Wroclaw and the National Institute of Public Health-National Institute of Hygiene in Warsaw and in partnership with Psykiatrist Institut Vinderen – Universitet, Oslo. The project was funded by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and the European Economic Area Mechanism as well as the Polish Ministry of Health. No support from the pharmaceutical industry was received or from other commercial sources. The Portuguese Mental Health Study was carried out by the Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medical Sciences, NOVA University of Lisbon, with collaboration of the Portuguese Catholic University, and was funded by the Champalimaud Foundation, Gulbenkian Foundation, Foundation for Science and Technology and the Ministry of Health. The Romania WMH study projects 'Policies in Mental Health Area' and 'National Study regarding Mental Health and Services Use' were carried out by the National School of Public Health & Health Services Management (former National Institute for Research & Development in Health), with technical support of Metro Media Transylvania, the National Institute of Statistics-National Centre for Training in Statistics, SC Cheyenne Services SRL, Statistics Netherlands and were funded by the Ministry of Public Health (former Ministry of Health) with supplemental support of Eli Lilly Romania SRL. The US National Comorbidity Survey Replication is supported by the NIMH (U01-MH60220) with supplemental support from the National Institute of Drug Abuse, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (grant 044708) and the John W. Alden Trust

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to air pollution has been associated with childhood respiratory disease and other adverse outcomes. Epigenetics is a suggested link between exposures and health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate associations between prenatal exposure to particulate matter (PM) with diameter [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) or [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and DNA methylation in newborns and children. METHODS: We meta-analyzed associations between exposure to [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) at maternal home addresses during pregnancy and newborn DNA methylation assessed by Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450K BeadChip in nine European and American studies, with replication in 688 independent newborns and look-up analyses in 2,118 older children. We used two approaches, one focusing on single cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites and another on differentially methylated regions (DMRs). We also related PM exposures to blood mRNA expression. RESULTS: Six CpGs were significantly associated [false discovery rate (FDR) [Formula: see text]] with prenatal [Formula: see text] and 14 with [Formula: see text] exposure. Two of the [Formula: see text] CpGs mapped to FAM13A (cg00905156) and NOTCH4 (cg06849931) previously associated with lung function and asthma. Although these associations did not replicate in the smaller newborn sample, both CpGs were significant ([Formula: see text]) in 7- to 9-y-olds. For cg06849931, however, the direction of the association was inconsistent. Concurrent [Formula: see text] exposure was associated with a significantly higher NOTCH4 expression at age 16 y. We also identified several DMRs associated with either prenatal [Formula: see text] and or [Formula: see text] exposure, of which two [Formula: see text] DMRs, including H19 and MARCH11, replicated in newborns. CONCLUSIONS: Several differentially methylated CpGs and DMRs associated with prenatal PM exposure were identified in newborns, with annotation to genes previously implicated in lung-related outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4522. ; The UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust (Grant ref. 102215/2/13/2) provides core support for ALSPAC. A comprehensive list of grants funding is available on the ALSPAC website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/external/documents/grant-acknowledgements.pdf). This research was specifically funded by a joint grant from the UK Economic & Social and Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Councils (Grant ref. ES/N000498/1). ALSPAC was funded by the BBSRC (BBI025751/1 and BB/I025263/1). Air pollution exposure assessment was funded by Public Health England as part of the MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, funded also by the UK Medical Research Council (Grant ref. MR/L01341X/1). BAMSE was supported by a European Union (grant agreement No. 261357), Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (SSF) (RBc08-0027). E.M. is supported by a grant from the European Research Council under the European Union (EU) Horizon 2020 (H2020) research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 757919, TRIBALCHS: This work was supported by NIEHS grants K01ES017801, R01ES022216, and P30ES007048. EARLI was supported by NIH grants R01ES016443, R01ES023780, and R01ES017646 as well as by Autism Speaks (AS 5938). The ENVIRONAGE birth cohort is funded by the European Research Counsil (ERC-2012-StG.310898) and by funds of the Flemisch Scientific Research Council (FWO, N1516112/G.0.873.11N.10). The methylation assays were funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 project EXPOsOMICS (grant no. 308610). Z.H. is supported by the Exposomics EC FP7 grant (Grant agreement no. 308610). ZH and A.G. and the Epigenetics Group at IARC are supported by grants from the Institut National du Cancer (INCa, Plan Cancer-EVA-Inserm, France) and Association pour la Recherche sur le Cancer (ARC, France). The EWAS data was funded by a grant to VWJ from Netherlands Genomics Initiative (NGI)/Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging (NCHA; project no. 050-060-810), by funds from the Genetic Laboratory of the Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC. V.W.J. also received a grant from Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (VIDI 016.136.361) and a Consolidator Grant from the European Research Council (ERC-2014-CoG-648916). J.F.F. has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 633595 (DynaHEALTH). This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (733206, LIFECYCLE). HELIX was supported by funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-206) under grant agreement no 308333 – the HELIX project. R.G. received the grant of the Lithuanian Agency for Science Innovation and Technology (No. 45 31V-66). The Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) is supported by the Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research, NIH/NIEHS (contract no. N01-ES-75558), NIH/NINDS (grant no. 1 UO1 NS 047537-01 and grant no. 2 UO1 NS 047537-06A1). INMA was funded by grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Red INMA G03/176), Generalitat de Catalunya-CIRIT 1999SGR 00241, and EU Commission (261357; 211250; 268479). Piccolipiù was funded by the Italian National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CCM grant 2010). The methylation assays were funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007–2013 project EXPOsOMICS (grant no. 308610). Z.H. is supported by the Exposomics EC FP7 grant (Grant agreement no: 308610). Z.H. and A.G. and the Epigenetics Group at IARC are supported by grants from the Institut National du Cancer (INCa, Plan Cancer-EVA-INSERM, France) and Association pour la Recherche sur le Cancer (ARC, France). Rhea: The methylation assays were funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 project EXPOsOMICS (grant no. 308610). Z.H. is supported by the Exposomics EC FP7 grant (grant agreement no. 308610). ZH and A.G. and the Epigenetics Group at IARC are supported by grants from the Institut National du Cancer (INCa, Plan Cancer-EVA-INSERM, France) and Association pour la Recherche sur le Cancer (ARC, France). PRISM: R.J.W. received funding for the PRISM cohort under R01 HL095606 and R01 HL1143396. A.C.J. is supported by R00 ES023450. Project Viva was supported by grants from the NIH (NIH R01 HL 111108, R01 NR013945, R01 HD 034568, K24 HD069408, K23 ES022242, P01ES009825, R01AI102960, P30 ES000002) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (R832416, RD834798). MeDALL: The methylation study of MeDALL cohorts was funded by MEDALL, a collaborative project supported by the European Union under the Health Cooperation Work Programme of the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement no. 261357). The Biobank-Based Integrative Omics Studies (BIOS) Consortium is funded by BBMRI-NL, a research infrastructure financed by the Dutch government (NWO 184.021.007). BAMSE: was supported by the Project b2014110

PURPOSE: The primary aims are to (1) obtain representative prevalence estimates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) among college students worldwide and (2) investigate whether STB is related to matriculation to and attrition from college. METHODS: Data from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys were analyzed, which include face-to-face interviews with 5750 young adults aged 18-22 spanning 21 countries (weighted mean response rate = 71.4%). Standardized STB prevalence estimates were calculated for four well-defined groups of same-aged peers: college students, college attriters (i.e., dropouts), secondary school graduates who never entered college, and secondary school non-graduates. Logistic regression assessed the association between STB and college entrance as well as attrition from college. RESULTS: Twelve-month STB in college students was 1.9%, a rate significantly lower than same-aged peers not in college (3.4%; OR 0.5; p < 0.01). Lifetime prevalence of STB with onset prior to age 18 among college entrants (i.e., college students or attriters) was 7.2%, a rate significantly lower than among non-college attenders (i.e., secondary school graduates or non-graduates; 8.2%; OR 0.7; p = 0.03). Pre-matriculation onset STB (but not post-matriculation onset STB) increased the odds of college attrition (OR 1.7; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: STB with onset prior to age 18 is associated with reduced likelihood of college entrance as well as greater attrition from college. Future prospective research should investigate the causality of these associations and determine whether targeting onset and persistence of childhood-adolescent onset STB leads to improved educational attainment. ; The World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; R01 MH070884), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Pfizer Foundation, the US Public Health Service (R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864, and R01 DA016558), the Fogarty International Center (FIRCA R03-TW006481), the Pan American Health Organization, Eli Lilly and Company, Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, GlaxoSmithKline, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. None of the funders had any role in the design, analysis, interpretation of results, or preparation of this paper. The 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing is funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. The São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey is supported by the State of São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Thematic Project Grant 03/00204-3. The Bulgarian Epidemiological Study of common mental disorders EPIBUL is supported by the Ministry of Health and the National Center for Public Health Protection. The Chinese World Mental Health Survey Initiative is supported by the Pfizer Foundation. The Shenzhen Mental Health Survey is supported by the Shenzhen Bureau of Health and the Shenzhen Bureau of Science, Technology, and Information. The Colombian National Study of Mental Health (NSMH) is supported by the Ministry of Social Protection. The Mental Health Study Medellín – Colombia was carried out and supported jointly by the Center for Excellence on Research in Mental Health (CES University) and the Secretary of Health of Medellín. The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (Contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123, and EAHC 20081308), (the Piedmont Region (Italy), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (FIS 00/0028), Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain (SAF 2000-158-CE), Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBER CB06/02/0046, RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP), and other local agencies and by an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline. Implementation of the Iraq Mental Health Survey (IMHS) and data entry were carried out by the staff of the Iraqi MOH and MOP with direct support from the Iraqi IMHS team with funding from both the Japanese and European Funds through United Nations Development Group Iraq Trust Fund (UNDG ITF). The Lebanese Evaluation of the Burden of Ailments and Needs Of the Nation (L.E.B.A.N.O.N.) is supported by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, the WHO (Lebanon), National Institute of Health / Fogarty International Center (R03 TW006481-01), anonymous private donations to IDRAAC, Lebanon, and unrestricted grants from, Algorithm, AstraZeneca, Benta, Bella Pharma, Eli Lilly, Glaxo Smith Kline, Lundbeck, Novartis, Servier, Phenicia, UPO. The Mexican National Comorbidity Survey (MNCS) is supported by The National Institute of Psychiatry Ramon de la Fuente (INPRFMDIES 4280) and by the National Council on Science and Technology (CONACyT-G30544- H), with supplemental support from the PanAmerican Health Organization (PAHO). Corina Benjet has received funding from the (Mexican) National Council of Science and Technology (grant CB-2010-01-155221). Te Rau Hinengaro: The New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) is supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Alcohol Advisory Council, and the Health Research Council. The Nigerian Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHW) is supported by the WHO (Geneva), the WHO (Nigeria), and the Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria. The Northern Ireland Study of Mental Health was funded by the Health & Social Care Research & Development Division of the Public Health Agency. The Peruvian World Mental Health Study was funded by the National Institute of Health of the Ministry of Health of Peru. The Polish project Epidemiology of Mental Health and Access to Care –EZOP Project (PL 0256) was supported by Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway through funding from the EEA Financial Mechanism and the Norwegian Financial Mechanism. EZOP project was co-financed by the Polish Ministry of Health. The Portuguese Mental Health Study was carried out by the Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medical Sciences, NOVA University of Lisbon, with collaboration of the Portuguese Catholic University, and was funded by Champalimaud Foundation, Gulbenkian Foundation, Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and Ministry of Health. The Romania WMH study projects "Policies in Mental Health Area" and "National Study regarding Mental Health and Services Use" were carried out by National School of Public Health & Health Services Management (former National Institute for Research & Development in Health), with technical support of Metro Media Transilvania, the National Institute of Statistics-National Centre for Training in Statistics, SC. Cheyenne Services SRL, Statistics Netherlands and were funded by Ministry of Public Health (former Ministry of Health) with supplemental support of Eli Lilly Romania SRL. The US National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; U01-MH60220) with supplemental support from the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF; Grant 044708), and the John W. Alden Trust. Liu's work was supported in part by a training grant from the National Institute of Mental Health (T32 MH017119). Mortier's work was supported by the Belgian Federal Fund for Fundamental Scientific Research (FWO; 11N0514N/11N0516N).

Background: In utero exposure to bisphenols, widely used in consumer products, may alter lung development and increase the risk of respiratory morbidity in the offspring. However, evidence is scarce and mostly focused on bisphenol A (BPA) only. Objective: To examine the associations of in utero exposure to BPA, bisphenol F (BPF), and bisphenol S (BPS) with asthma, wheeze, and lung function in school-age children, and whether these associations differ by sex. Methods: We included 3,007 mother-child pairs from eight European birth cohorts. Bisphenol concentrations were determined in maternal urine samples collected during pregnancy (1999-2010). Between 7 and 11 years of age, current asthma and wheeze were assessed from questionnaires and lung function by spirometry. Wheezing patterns were constructed from questionnaires from early to mid-childhood. We performed adjusted random-effects meta-analysis on individual participant data. Results: Exposure to BPA was prevalent with 90% of maternal samples containing concentrations above detection limits. BPF and BPS were found in 27% and 49% of samples. In utero exposure to BPA was associated with higher odds of current asthma (OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.27) and wheeze (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.30) (p-interaction sex = 0.01) among girls, but not with wheezing patterns nor lung function neither in overall nor among boys. We observed inconsistent associations of BPF and BPS with the respiratory outcomes assessed in overall and sex-stratified analyses. Conclusion: This study suggests that in utero BPA exposure may be associated with higher odds of asthma and wheeze among school-age girls. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and European Union's FEDER funds (CP16/00128 – the ENDOLUNG project, and PI17/01194 – the INMA-Ado-Respi Project), the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–206) under grant agreement no 308,333 - the HELIX project –, and from the EC's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 874,583 – the ATHLETE project. Generation R: This study was funded by The Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Erasmus University Rotterdam and the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development. The project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (LIFECYCLE, grant agreement No 733206, 2016; EUCAN-Connect grant agreement No 824989; ATHLETE, grant agreement No 874583). Dr. Vincent Jaddoe received a grant from the European Research Council (ERC-2014-CoG-648916). This study was supported by grant R01-ES022972 and R01-ES029779 from the National Institutes of Health, USA. The researchers are independent from the funders. The study sponsors had no role in the study design, data analysis, interpretation of data, or writing of this report. INMA Gipuzkoa: This study was funded by grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III (FIS-PI13/02187 and FIS-PI18/01142 incl. FEDER funds), CIBERESP, Department of Health of the Basque Government (2015111065), and the Provincial Government of Gipuzkoa (DFG15/221) and annual agreements with the municipalities of the study area (Zumarraga, Urretxu, Legazpi, Azkoitia y Azpeitia y Beasain). INMA Sabadell: This study was funded by grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Red INMA G03/176; CB06/02/0041; PI041436; PI081151 incl. FEDER funds; PI12/01890 incl. FEDER funds; CP13/00054 incl. FEDER funds), CIBERESP, Generalitat de Catalunya-CIRIT 1999SGR 00241, Generalitat de Catalunya-AGAUR (2009 SGR 501, 2014 SGR 822), Fundació La marató de TV3 (090430), Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SAF2012-32991 incl. FEDER funds), Agence Nationale de Securite Sanitaire de l'Alimentation de l'Environnement et du Travail (1262C0010), European Commission (261357, 308333, 603,794 and 634453). Alicia Abellan holds a LifeCycle fellowship, funded from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 733206. Maribel Casas holds a Miguel Servet fellowship (CP16/00128) funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III and co-funded by European Social Fund "Investing in your future". We acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the "Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–2023" Program (2018–000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. INMA Valencia: INMA Valencia was funded by Grants from UE (FP7-ENV-2011 cod 282,957 and HEALTH.2010.2.4.5–1), Spain: ISCIII (G03/176; FIS-FEDER: PI09/02647, PI11/01007, PI11/02591, PI11/02038, PI13/1944, PI13/2032, PI14/00891, PI14/01687, PI16/1288, PI17/00663, and PI19/1338; Miguel Servet-FEDER CP11/00178, CP15/00025, and CPII16/00051), Alicia Koplowitz Foundation, and Generalitat Valenciana: FISABIO (UGP 15–230, UGP-15–244, UGP-15–249, and AICO/2020/285). BiB: This report is independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research Yorkshire and Humber ARC (NIHR200166) and BiB receives core infrastructure funding from the Wellcome Trust (WT101597MA). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health and Social Care. EDEN: The EDEN study was supported by Foundation for medical research (FRM), National Agency for Research (ANR), National Institute for Research in Public health (IRESP: TGIR cohorte santé 2008 program), French Ministry of Health (DGS), French Ministry of Research, INSERM Bone and Joint Diseases National Research (PRO-A), and Human Nutrition National Research Programs, Paris-Sud University, Nestlé, French National Institute for Population Health Surveillance (InVS), French National Institute for Health Education (INPES), the European Union FP7 programmes (FP7/2007–2013, HELIX, ESCAPE, ENRIECO, Medall projects), Diabetes National Research Program (through a collaboration with the French Association of Diabetic Patients (AFD)), French Agency for Environmental Health Safety (now ANSES), Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale a complementary health insurance (MGEN), French national agency for food security, French-speaking association for the study of diabetes and metabolism (ALFEDIAM). MoBa: The Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study is supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research. RHEA: The Rhea project was financially supported by European projects (EU FP6-2003-Food-3-NewGeneris, EU FP6. STREP Hiwate, EU FP7 ENV.2007.1.2.2.2. Project No 211,250 Escape, EU FP7-2008-ENV-1.2.1.4 Envirogenomarkers, EU FP7-HEALTH-2009- single stage CHICOS, EU FP7 ENV.2008.1.2.1.6. Proposal No 226,285 ENRIECO, EU- FP7- HEALTH-2012 Proposal No 308,333 HELIX, H2020 LIFECYCLE, grant agreement No 733206, H2020 ATHLETE, grant agreement No 874583), and the Greek Ministry of Health (Program of Prevention of obesity and neurodevelopmental disorders in preschool children, in Heraklion district, Crete, Greece: 2011–2014; "Rhea Plus": Primary Prevention Program of Environmental Risk Factors for Reproductive Health, and Child Health: 2012–15). Additional funding from NIEHS supported Dr Chatzi (R01ES030691, R01ES029944, R01ES030364, R21ES029681, R21ES028903, and P30ES007048). The funding sources had no involvement in the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data or in the writing of the report and in the decision to submit the article for publication.

Throughout the past two decades there has been a resurgence of the concern with the rise of new great powers and its thematic cousin, American hegemony's challenges and challengers (a resurgence that must be seen, of course, as relative to the static preoccupations of Cold War/bipolar International Relations theory). However, scholarly production has not been particularly enlightening. Not because the subject there considered is unimportant. On the contrary, rises and declines –be it of states, empires, civilizations, inter alia- and the potential to restructure world politics inherent to preeminent or hegemonic political units are powerful engines in international relations. This is why a critique of the epistemological, methodological and empirical aspects of this literature and a quest for more productive avenues of research is necessary.Neither a comprehensive critique of the literature nor a complete proposal for an alternative research project can be the goal of the present short essay. For the time being it will suffice to open some paths of discussion by way of putting forward certain challenges to this literature and sketching some notes (in a not un-Gramscian way) on alternative paths of research.By now the reader might reasonably be wondering what does Gramsci has to do with all this. Gramsci's concept of hegemony, but also his ideas on war of position vs. war of movement and passive revolution could eventually be employed, I will argue, as one of the building-blocks of, as Gramsci would have expressed it himself, a counter-hegemonic narrative on the phenomenon of the rise and fall of great powers and international hegemony. (1) A note on the use of Gramsci: As with most of the work of the Italian Marxist, coming up with a circumscribed definition for these critical concepts and ideas is an arduous, and probably unfruitful exercise. The Prison Notebooks, (2) Gramsci's magnum opus, is in itself just notes; ideas dispersed in short chapters that do not claim to be a coherent project (at least in the way we tend to think the argumentative organization of books). Thus Gramsci's own work allows for a not rigidly structured use of his ideas (e.g. there is no need to follow him all the way down in his unorthodox Marxism). Even more, one of the central points of Gramscian thought centers around the notion of a pragmatic understanding of theory. In other words, the search for a "real theoretical truth" is not nearly as relevant as the search for a "useful truth". With this spirit is that I approach the issues of hegemony and rise and fall with the Prison Notebooks behind the arm.* * * * * * The most diffused argument on the rise and decline of the great powers (3) can be summarized, grosso modo –and avoiding existing differences between schools and theorists- as following: the international system, against what balance of power theorists would argue, tends to have a hegemonic power (Spain in the 16th centuries, Portugal in the 17th century, the Netherlands in the second half of the 18th century, Great Britain in the 19th and beginnings of the 20th century, and, from then on, the United States) that establishes a certain international order. But the system is not immutable, the difference in the rates of growth between states will generate competitors to the hegemon, which, if dissatisfied with the present order, will try to bring it down (4) -even if this entails the use of force (i.e. a hegemonic war, in the words of Raymond Aron). (5) Not surprisingly, and in some ways understandably, the literature has an obsession with transition periods and war. In social scientific terms then, the whole phenomenon of rising and declining ends up as the explanandum to explicate the explanans (i.e. transition and war). By doing this it obscures an array of phenomena that cannot be studied in a dichotomy of hegemon and challenger. Methodological and empirical issues (e.g. How do we measure power? Is economic rise a sufficient cause for a change in the system? How many cases are historically relevant? etc.) are part of the problem (more on these difficulties below). Moreover, this approach seems to be propelled by an anxiety generated by the prospect that there will be no huge transformations in the world. In the words of John Gray: "paranoia is a protest against unimportance." (6) In Gramscian vocabulary: people need to think they are living in changing "epochal" times (especially academics that make a living out of "explaining and predicting" these "epochal changes"). The result has been an anxious expectation for the arrival of a challenger to the hegemon and the plausibility of a hegemonic conflict in the process of transition. First came the USSR from the 1950s to the 1970s. When the Soviets proved to be a pathetic challenger, the time came for Japan, the "rising sun." Japan's challenge was dismissed before the end of the 20th century. However, this was not a cause of distress for students of power transitions, now they had China.As I have showed elsewhere, (7) serious contemplation cannot but conclude that there is little use for the kind of futurology contest that this literature has turned into. Of course, the central question then is: acknowledging that this is a topic that should be seriously studied, how can the discipline go forward?Diversifying the questions we have been asking is one way. For example, the problématique should be not so much what will happen when a state rises, or even which are the states currently rising, but why have so many states failed to rise -a necessary(!) counterpart to understand the deep reasons for "successful" rises. Working on the "rise of the West" in a comparative-civilizational line, Jack Goldstone comments on the tendency to uncritically accept a "winner" bias: "Because all too often, we view world history in terms of 'winners' and 'losers,' elevate to prominence much in the 'winners'' history, and obscure or lose sight of similar items in the history of retrospective 'losers'." (8) Until we have a good grasp of why the great-powers-that-could-have-been -or as I call it elsewhere, "failed rises"- (9) follow different trajectories from those considered "successful" rises (while sharing similar departure points) our understanding of rises, declines and hegemony will stay worryingly incomplete.On the other hand, increasing the complexity in the concept of hegemony (and thus, of power) promises to be a profitable enterprise. And here is where Gramsci enters the scene.The most convincing Gramscian in International Relations theory has defined the Italian's concept of hegemony in the following way:"Antonio Gramsci used the concept of hegemony to express a unity between objective material forces and ethico-political ideas in Marxian terms, a unity of structure and superstructure- in which power based on dominance over production is rationalized through an ideology incorporating compromise or consensus between dominant and subordinate groups…. A hegemonial structure of world order is one in which power takes a primarily consensual form…"(10) One of Gramsci's biggest challenges was how to devise the creation of a new hegemony in Western Europe –that is, an alternative to western capitalism/democracy. The classical methods of frontal and violent attack, essence of the Russian Revolution, or what Gramsci calls "war of movement," were of no use in the West. While it was just a government that the Bolsheviks had to overthrow in order to install a new regime, the proto-Modern Princes (i.e. Communist Parties) in Western Europe would have to confront a much more robust complex represented in the formula "civil society plus state." In this context a "war of position" would be the best option. The core of this notion is that, confronted to such a resilient organization, one must win the battle from within; create a new hegemony before taking power. According to Gramsci: "A social group can and indeed must, already 'lead' before winning governmental power (this indeed is one of the principal conditions for the winning of such power)"(p. 47, Prison Notebooks). A simple power battle -a new October 1917- was not enough. This is why Cox talks about a "consensual form" and the primacy of ideology.Going from mainstream IR "thin" to a "thicker" version of hegemony (using Geertzian concepts in a slightly unorthodox way) would problematize the issue of rises and declines in interesting ways.To begin with, the preeminent place currently occupied in the literature by rates of growth would seem laughable to Gramsci. (11) Both in the analysis/futurology of possible challengers to US hegemony and for the more general dynamics of rises and declines -see especially the libraries of (naïve?) scholarly and journalistic production on the so-called "BRICS". Even if these trajectories of growth could be accurately predicted (a dubious assumption), inferring a new international historic bloc or a new great powers configuration would depend on a leap of faith. Extrapolating Gramsci's historicism, it could be argued that an essentially material account of power might have been plausible during, let's say, Habsburg preeminence in the 16th and part of the 17th centuries. This has not been the case for a long time. Just as Gramsci devised a qualitative change in European politics, in which civil-society/state and ideas/material-forces were inevitably intertwined, there is case to make that the present international order is too complex to be seen just through ratios of economic growth and other material variables. (12) A counter-hegemon would need to do much more than surpass the US materially (however this is defined). But the point is also that the general phenomenon of the rise of great powers is likewise much more complex than devising future scenarios under the bewilderment generated by the BRIC's growth rates. Several paths follow the critique of "thin" hegemony. One is to give a more relevant place to discourse, recognition and legitimacy. Achieving great power status or building a hegemonic order is in many ways a discursive affair. In the 19th century recognition as a great power might have been identified by, inter alia, studying who participated in the diplomatic arena as a legitimate great power –e.g. who was sitting as a peer at the table during the Congress of Vienna. This discursive dynamic is probably more complex nowadays –e.g. who is identified in the cover of the Economist as "rising"- but is still an essential element and it should be studied carefully.(13) In a word, achieving a certain status in world politics is not the automatic effect of material variations but the recognition by an Other(s) that a political unit has become part of a particular club or class because, among other things, such a variation in material capabilities has occurred. This mutual empowerment aspect could also be useful in explaining the aforementioned phenomenon of "failed rises" (the development of this idea, however, must be saved for another occasion).It should be clear that this is also a call to historicize the sources of power. Since, as Gramsci assumed, hegemony –but any order in general- changes its basic attributes and dynamics with time, likewise the variables that explain how agents interact with those structures should also change. Social scientists tend to be weak against the temptation to over-generalize; a Gramscian outlook could work as an antidote to the follies inherent in the excesses committed in the name of social scientific "laws."Another interesting possibility lies in the elucidation of the resilience American hegemony seems to be presenting. Neorealism has been left in an uncomfortable place under the unwillingness of American preeminence to give place to a multipolar or bipolar world (since unipolarity is an anomaly for neorealist theory). A "thick" notion of hegemony would help explain this. Even if material change is continuously going on, "thick" hegemony, as explained before, does not depend exclusively on it. There is an ideological aspect that reinforces path dependence trajectories that might turn hegemony more resilient even when the US might be losing ground in terms of its material preeminence (this could be paired with neoliberalism's focus on institutions as central to an hegemon and its order). Hegemonic path dependence does not mean that we have arrived to the "end of History and the last Hegemony", to paraphrase an excessively well-known title. It is, however, an acknowledgment that change in international politics is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon.* * * * * * It is certainly possible that one day –probably a long time from now- China will replace the US as the most powerful state, eventually –but not necessarily- building a new international order. It is also possible that the "BRICS" (or any other creation from the armies of acronym-chasers) will rise to great power status conforming a multipolar world. The problem is that it is also very possible that 30 years from now no one will remember the "rise of China" or the "rise of the BRICS." These are unknowns we cannot escape. As with "Japan's rise" in the 1980s, the infinite paper, ink, and time wasted could end up in the most embarrassing dustbin in the history of the discipline. This should not be interpreted as a call to stop studying these dynamics, but as an emphatic request to critically think about the best way(s) to do this. Though engaging in futurology is definitely the correct approach if the goal is selling books and being published in well-known journals, I argue that the best way to do this if the purpose is building knowledge is: a) increasing the complexity in the use of variables and concepts such as power, hegemony, rise and decline, etc. b) avoiding a "winner bias" and understanding the cases of "failed rises", c) historicizing structural dynamics and properties and the sources that explain how agents interact with those structures, d) engaging with history in the search for clues on how to think about the present and not in an attempt to come up with historical "laws", e) finally, and probably the most important, accepting the complex nature of profound change in international politics instead of escaping to the triteness of futurology that rather than educating fosters misunderstanding. (1) This is not an unprecedented line of work. There is a substantive body of scholarly work on Gramscian IPE. It must be said, however, that I will not attempt to engage in a rigorous Gramscian analysis of international relations, but just use some of his ideas as building blocks.(2) Gramsci, Antonio, Selections From the Prison Notebooks, International Publishers, New York, 2010.(3) See: Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1981; Organski, A.F.K. and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago University Press, 1980; and Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Vintage, 1989.(4) Though some argue that it is the fear of the hegemon to lose its current position that brings about hegemonic war.(5) Nota bene: Aron worked on the concept of hegemonic war as part of his studies on "total war", and not in the transition framework. This point is pertinent since he should not be included in the group of scholars conforming this literature –being his oeuvre of a sophistication and scope not matched by them.(6) Interview at The Browser, available online: http://thebrowser.com/interviews/john-gray-on-critiques-utopia-and-apocalypse(7) Castro, Guzmán, "Measuring the Future: Rises, Failed Power Transitions and the Problem of Systemic Change," unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2011.(8) Goldstone, Jack, "The Rise of the West – or Not? A Revision to Socio-economic History", Sociological Theory, 18:2, July 2000.(9) Castro, Guzmán, "The (Intellectual) Costs of Hegemony: Hegemonic Bias and the Poverty of the Theories of Systemic Change," unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2012.(10) Robert Cox cited in Keohane, After Hegemony, Princeton University Press, 1984, p. 44.(11) See here to laugh with Gramsci.(12) Gramsci is clear on this: "The analysis of these propositions tends, I think, to reinforce the conception of historic bloc in which precisely material forces are the content and ideologies are the form, though this disctintion between form and content has purely didactic value, since the material forces would be inconceivable historically without form and the ideologies would be individual fancies without the material forces" (p. 377).(13) There is some encouraging new work on the subject. See: Zarakol, Ayse, After Defeat: How the East Learned to Live with the West, Cambridge UP, 2011, and Suzuki Shogo, "Seeking 'Legitimate' Great Power Status in Post-Cold War International Society: China's and Japan's Participation in UNPKO," International Relations, 2008 22: 45.Sobre el autorProfessor, Ph.D. student.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Pennsylvania.

Several members of Congress have created a caucus to support the Mojahedin-e Khalq, an exiled Iranian faction that once fought for Saddam Hussein and was formerly listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. The lawmakers' move comes as the MeK, long accused of cult-like abuses and shadowy foreign ties, faces legal problems in Albania over its Ashraf-3 compound.The MeK announced the creation of the Congressional ASHRAF Protection and Rights Advocacy Caucus in late December, calling it a "bipartisan" group that will be led by Democratic and Republican co-chairs. The current caucus chairman Lance Gooden (R–Texas), and the three other members who have signed on so far are Rep. Paul Gosar (R–Az.), Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R–N.Y.) and Hispanic Caucus chairman Raul Ruiz (D–Calif.).Gooden's legislative director Claire Alden stated that the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, a pro-MeK group, was lobbying Democratic offices to join the caucus. "OIAC is waiting to hear back from several Democrat[ic] members as I understand it," Alden wrote in an email to Responsible Statecraft on January 9.Gooden had sent out a letter on January 8, obtained by Responsible Statecraft, seeking other members of Congress willing "to support the humanitarian and democratic rights of Iranian dissidents living in Ashraf-3, Albania, and worldwide, fighting for regime change and freedom in Iran." It called the MeK "an opposition movement fighting for Iran's liberation from one of the most evil dictatorships of the contemporary era."The creation of a caucus "immediately gives you allies on [Capitol] Hill," says Ben Freeman, director of the Quincy Institute's Democratizing Foreign Policy Program and an expert on foreign lobbying. "They know they've got a receptive ear in Congress. They know that if they email [a caucus member's] office and have a request, at the very least, someone's going to pick up the phone"In addition to the members of Congress, two Trump cabinet officials — former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — have also recently thrown their weight behind the MeK.Last year, Saudi Arabia had reportedly agreed to cut its support for the MeK. A few months later, Albanian police raided Ashraf-3, the MeK's sprawling headquarters in Albania. The Albanian authorities accused the MeK of cybercrimes and other provocative activities in violation of the agreement allowing the exiles to stay in the country. The exiles accused Albanian police of killing an elderly man with tear gas during the raid.At the time, the U.S. State Department affirmed Albania's "right to investigate any potential illegal activities within its territory," and stated that the MeK is not "a viable democratic opposition movement that is representative of the Iranian people." Gooden, Malliotakis, Gosar, and Ruiz seem to disagree.Gosar's support for the MeK stands out as particularly unusual, given his other foreign policy stances. The congressman, an outspoken "America Firster," has previously denounced "proxy wars in the Middle East" and vowed to stop Washington's "nation-building, foreign aid giveaways, and bloody regime-change wars.""Congressman Gosar supports freedom in Iran. The Ashraf Caucus shares that goal," said Gosar's communications director Anthony Foti in an email to Responsible Statecraft. "The expectation is for peaceful change organically coming from the people of Iran. At no point has Congressman Gosar supported U.S. military intervention in Iran nor would he." The MeK is a left-wing faction that participated in Iran's 1979 revolution and was pushed out by its Islamist rivals. The group soon began promoting itself as an Iranian government-in-exile, and appealed to the Soviet Union for support. After the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980, the MeK's leadership relocated to Iraq and fought for Saddam Hussein's government. In retaliation, the Iranian government executed thousands of leftist prisoners in 1988, one of the most infamous massacres in Iran's history.During their collaboration with the Iraqi government, MeK fighters allegedly participated in the genocidal campaign against Iraqi Kurds. MeK leader Maryam Rajavi was said to have ordered her fighters to crush "the Kurds under your tanks, and save your bullets for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards." The MeK now denies having any involvement in the anti-Kurdish campaign, and often cites a 1999 letter by a Kurdish fighter absolving Rajavi.Saudi Arabia, another rival of Iran, also allegedly began funding the MeK at the time. MeK defector Massoud Khodabandeh told Jordanian media in 2018 that a Saudi prince had given the group suitcases full of luxury goods and trucks of gold worth $200 million in 1989. Former Saudi intelligence chief Turki bin Faisal al-Saud has spoken at MeK conferences. The group denies receiving Saudi funds, claiming that it is "an independent movement, standing on its own feet both politically and financially."After the war, the Iraqi government kept the MeK in bases known as Camp Ashraf and Ashraf-2, considered by critics to be cult compounds. A report by Human Rights Watch in 2005 and a sweeping expose by The Intercept in 2020 confirmed rumors of the abuses that went on inside the camps. Defectors accused the MeK leadership of imprisoning, torturing, and even sterilizing its own members. The MeK again denied the allegations and denounced the "hit piece" against them.Other factions of the Iranian opposition, who often clash fiercely with each other, are unanimous in their rejection of the MeK. Anti-hijab activist Masih Alinejad has labeled the group a "cult." Iranian-American journalist Jason Rezaian, who was held hostage in prison on trumped-up charges by the Iranian government for over a year, has insisted that the MeK's brand is "toxic." Former crown prince Reza Pahlavi called the MeK "terroristic" in a Belgian parliament hearing last year."The fact that a documented cult-like organization with a history of terrorism, human rights abuses, and committing atrocities alongside Saddam Hussein can get endorsed by lawmakers in Washington is a testament to how much money and power is behind the pro-war with Iran infrastructure here," says Jamal Abdi, head of the National Iranian American Council.The National Union for Democracy in Iran and Iranian-Americans for Liberty, two pro-regime-change organizations that are often at odds with NIAC, have also publicly argued that most Iranians reject the MeK. Neither group responded to a request for comment about the caucus.For decades, the United States officially considered the MeK a terrorist organization due to its past attacks on American targets. The MeK had killed at least three U.S. Army officers and three American contractors in Iran before the 1979 revolution. When Iranian revolutionaries released their American hostages in 1981, the MeK complained that refusing to prosecute and execute the U.S. Embassy staff would "embolden and encourage the imperialists."After the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the MeK's relationship with the West changed dramatically. In the 2000s, the MeK became an early source of information on Iran's nuclear program, which was allegedly fed to the group by Israeli intelligence services. Israel also reportedly teamed up with the MeK to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists.At the same time, the MeK embarked on a high-profile lobbying campaign to remove itself from the terrorist list. MeK supporters courted American officials from both sides of the aisle, and sympathetic politicians were offered speaking fees of up to $50,000 to appear at pro-MeK rallies. The MeK prevailed; the Obama administration lifted terrorism sanctions on the group in 2011, and spent $20 million resettling MeK members in a new Albanian sanctuary known as Ashraf-3.The resettlement deal came after Iraqi forces, some of them loyal to Tehran, launched deadly attacks on the original Ashraf camps. Daniel Benjamin, the U.S. State Department counterterrorism official who oversaw the delisting, later insisted that he wanted to get MeK members out of Iraq in a humane way, not to whitewash the MeK's "terrorist past."But "what that allowed them to do was to hire lobbying and PR firms," says Freeman, because the terrorist list is one of the few restraints on foreign lobbying under U.S. law. The MeK has several officially-registered lobbyists, and has continued to make large payments to American politicians. Pence, for example, took $430,000 from the group.Gooden, Malliotakis, Gosar, and Ruiz have all spoken at MeK rallies or conferences since the terrorism designation was lifted.Responsible Statecraft asked the four members, via their offices, if they have taken money from the MeK or MeK front groups. Foti said that Gosar has never been "paid for giving a speech" during his "congressional career." Gooden "has never been paid for any appearance," according to Micah Bock, his communications director. Neither answered the broader question of MeK funding. The other two offices have not answered as of press time.

Romina Boccia and Dominik Lett


Congress is in the midst of debating the annual defense spending bill and chances for completion before the August recess look bleak. The multitrillion‐​dollar increase in the debt limit, which Congress passed in early June following months of negotiations, established budget levels for defense and nondefense appropriations for the next two years. The parties remain divided on the details.
Spending debates that are contentious now will likely get worse in future years, as the current fiscal trajectory will place inevitable constraints on America's military. Without reforms to health care and retirement benefits, other domestic and defense priorities will be increasingly squeezed. As debt levels and associated interest costs rise, economic growth will suffer. And as the share of the budget dedicated to autopilot entitlement spending expands, reduced fiscal capacity will further increase budgetary conflict over the shrinking portion of discretionary spending that Congress allocates each year.
Congress only debates 28 cents of every dollar it spends; the vast majority of federal spending goes out without congressional deliberation, primarily funding programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, among other entitlements. A new mechanism is needed to reform entitlement spending and avoid a future fiscal crisis before it's too late.
Erosion of economic power
According to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) latest long‐​term budget outlook, publicly held debt will grow from 98 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 181 percent of GDP by 2053. Most economic research finds that excessive public debt reduces economic growth, with dampening effects kicking in around debt reaching 78 percent of GDP.
There are many benefits of a robust economy including a higher standard of living. A strong domestic economy is also critical for supporting national security. Prominent national security leaders, including former Secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury, and Homeland Security across eight Republican and Democratic administrations, were recently gathered by the Peterson Foundation's Coalition for Fiscal and National Security. They argue that:
"[L]ong-term debt is the single greatest threat to our national security…This debt burden would slow economic growth, reduce income levels, and harm our national security posture. It would inevitably constrain funding for a strong military and effective diplomacy, and draw resources away from the investments that are essential for our economic strength and leading role among nations."

Delaying responsible fiscal reforms in the face of growing federal debt invites economic and national decline. High and rising U.S. federal debt leads to suppressed private investment, reduced incomes, and increased risk of a sudden fiscal crisis. A weaker economy and growing concerns by international bondholders of U.S. treasuries about the government's ability and willingness to service its debt—without resorting to high inflation—will drive up interest costs and eventually impact America's international standing negatively.
While investors continue to gobble up U.S. debt, which now exceeds $25 trillion, the $114 trillion in additional deficits CBO projects over the next 30 years pose serious questions about whether there will be enough appetite for markets to absorb such high levels of government debt. Troubling too is how much productivity‐​enhancing private investments will suffer because of crowding out. The prudent choice is to restore fiscal sustainability during times of peace and economic strength, reversing America's unsustainable debt crisis while it's still possible.
National defense is a core responsibility of the federal government. To maximize Americans' safety and prosperity, prudence should guide both strategy and the budget. A dire fiscal crisis would erode the economic foundation of America's strength, limiting U.S. capacity to defend its vital interests at home and abroad.
Crowding out of defense spending as a budget priority
Entitlements are increasingly dominating the federal budget. Since 1962, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other income security programs such as food stamps have grown four times larger as a share of GDP and consume more than half of the federal budget. By comparison, defense spending declined by a factor of three as a share of GDP, from 9 percent of GDP in 1962 to 3 percent of GDP by 2022. Defense spending makes up less than one‐​fifth of the budget, despite growing in real, inflation‐​adjusted terms as entitlement spending has claimed an increasing share of the taxpayer burden. In real terms, annual defense spending has increased by nearly $200 billion between 1962 and 2022. Meanwhile, annual entitlement spending has grown by $3.3 trillion over the same timeframe. The graphic below shows how entitlements have grown to consume a greater share of total non‐​interest spending over time.











As entitlements consume a larger share of the budget, this exerts downward pressure on other budget priorities. Former Principal Research Scientist for Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies Program Cindy Williams explains,
"Absent significant reform or a major expansion of the total federal budget, the rising costs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will continue to crowd out defense spending. In the extreme, if federal budgets are held near today's levels as a share of GDP, nondefense discretionary spending is not reduced significantly, and mandatory spending is not brought under control, there will soon be no money left for defense."
Defense has also been a prime target for cuts across several congressional efforts to reduce government spending. The Manhattan Institute's Brian Riedl examined 14 major deficit‐​reduction negotiations since 1980. More than any other category, legislators tend to reduce defense spending during fiscal consolidation periods. Cuts to defense discretionary spending produced the largest savings in four of six deficit‐​reduction deals. Despite entitlements primarily driving rising deficits, mandatory spending reforms in these deals were modest at best. It seems politically easier to keep targeting discretionary spending for cuts than to tackle the key driver of rising spending: entitlements.
For those in favor of restraining the scope of U.S. military engagement, a fiscally restrained government may have some upside. Cato's Justin Logan and former Cato research fellow Ben Friedman argue that depressed economic growth and rising interest rates driven by high debt could make the defense budget an increasingly likely target for cuts. Logan and Friedman write,
"The U.S. military of the 2010s and 2020s will likely have a moderately less ambitious strategy and smaller budget than that of last decade. But the ambitions will still be hegemonic and the budget massive, hardly those of a normal country concerned chiefly with its own affairs. Unfortunately, the old Bolshevik saying, ''the worse, the better'' may apply for those seeking to rein in American military ambition. Ironically, we are left to push for military restraint while rooting against the conditions liable to produce it."

In this way, a smaller U.S. defense budget would put real limits on unnecessary and self‐​defeating American military activities overseas by, constraining American legislators. Paradoxically, some level of defense budget constraints could improve U.S. national security by reducing our involvement in military conflicts that are not in America's national interest.
Apply a defense savings mechanism to the broader budget
The United States' unsustainable fiscal trajectory is almost entirely driven by rising interest expenses and entitlement spending. Legislators must work together to reform the major entitlement programs to avoid a potential debt crisis, massive tax increases, and lagging economic growth. One idea gaining traction is a debt commission to assist legislators with adopting budget reforms to stabilize the growth in the debt.
The 1988 Base Realignment and Closure Act (BRAC) successfully addressed the politically thorny issue of closing military bases and can serve as a model for Congress's debt commission. BRAC established an independent commission to select military bases for closures, with recommendations that were approved by the President being adopted by default in Congress unless legislators successfully passed a resolution of disapproval. BRAC successfully bypassed special interest politics and congressional gridlock to free up funding for more essential defense priorities. Congress should consider establishing a BRAC‐​like, independent fiscal commission to recommend changes to stabilize the debt at no more than 100 percent of GDP over the next 10 years.
A well‐​designed commission will be composed of a diverse group of experts, guided by clear goals established by Congress, and whose recommendations will be self‐​executing after Presidential approval; benefitting from so‐​called fast‐​track authority. Asking members of Congress to affirmatively vote for entitlement reforms recommended by such a commission will most likely undermine the debt commission's recommendations from becoming law. Few legislators are willing to stick their necks out in support of necessary and yet unpopular changes to Medicare and Social Security.
Unsustainable fiscal policy imperils American economic and military strength. By reforming entitlement programs and reducing spending, legislators can prevent high debt from undermining America's prosperity and security. A well‐​designed debt commission can help Congress to see this through.

КОЛОНКА РЕДАКТОРАДвойственная реальность............................................ 1Больше прагматизма................................................... 2О природе цикличности............................................... 3От ресурса к ценности................................................. 4Раскрытие vs Вскрытие............................................... 5Неочевидное вероятное............................................... 6По уму и по совести .....................................................7Симптомы и лекарства..................................................... 8С выгодой для бизнеса и пользой для Отечества .....................................................9Прагматизм Vs Эгоизм .....................................................10Мир и Человек..................................................... 11Необходимы коллективные действия..................................................... 12ТЕМЫ НОМЕРОВ:АРКТИКА: ДРАЙВЕРЫ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙКРЮКОВ В.А., МЕДЖИДОВА Д.Д. 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Местные сообщества РоссийскойАрктики: социологический портрет (по результатам исследованияв Мурманской области)............................ 10ШИШАЦКИЙ Н.Г. Арктические районы Красноярского края: проблемыи перспективы развития ............................12ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ СОЦИОЛОГИЯ И ДЕМОГРАФИЯГАБДРАХМАНОВА Г.Ф. Смыслы и практики повседневного трудового поведения сельских русских и татар .............................2ПРОБЛЕМЫ РЕГИОНАЛЬНОГО РАЗВИТИЯВОЛЧКОВА И. В., УФИМЦЕВА Е.В., ШАДЕЙКО Н.Р., СЕЛИВЕРСТОВ А.А. Агломерации как драйвер экономического роста России в условиях глобальныхвызовов............................ 2КАЛУГИНА З.И. Экономическая доступность продовольствия: региональные и социальные различия ............................2ФАДЕЕВА О.П., ХЛОПЦОВ Д.М. Рынки земли в России и в Сибири: от ресурсов к активам ............................4КОМАРОВ В.М.. АКИМОВА В.В., ВОЛОШИНСКАЯ А.А. Стратегии городского развития в России и мире: сравнительный анализ ............................4ДЕМЕНТЬЕВ Д.В. Комплексное развитие сельских территорий в Новосибирской области: предварительные результаты............................ 6КРЮКОВ В.А., ФРИДМАН Ю.А., РЕЧКО Г.Н., ЛОГИНОВА Е.Ю., МАРКОВА В.М. Углехимический кластер в Кузбассе: между нефтью, газом и будущим? ............................7ГРИШИНА И.В., ПОЛЫНЕВ А.О., ШКУРОПАТ А.В. Социально-экономическое положение регионов России в 2020 г.: методология и результаты ежемесячного мониторинга ............................7МИЩУК С.Н. Китайский фактор в АПК приграничного региона: итоги 20 лет сотрудничества ............................12РАЗВИТИЕ ОТРАСЛЕЙ РЕАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИАЛЕКСЕЕВ А.В. Стратегия развития обрабатывающей промышленности: иллюзия прорыва ............................3НИКОЛЬСКИЙ А.Ф. Что такое «сверхкомбинат»?............................ 3ЧЕРЕМИСИНА Т.П. Помогла ли застройщикам реформа финансирования жилищного строительства в условиях пандемии? ............................4АЛЕЩЕНКО В.В., АЛЕЩЕНКО О.А., ШЕНДАЛЕВ А.Н., ЛАРИН А.Н. Инфраструктура экспорта зерна регионов Сибири ............................8АЛЕКСЕЕВ А.В. Российский обрабатывающий сектор – пора за флажки............................ 8ЛУКИН Е.В. Черная металлургия Северо-Запада России: тенденции и проблемы развития............................ 10ВАСИЛЬЕВ А.М., ЛИСУНОВА Е.А. Как добиться повышения народнохозяйственной отдачи от рыбной промышленности ............................10ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ НАУКИ И ОБРАЗОВАНИЯСЕМЕНОВ Е.В. Несостоявшаяся реформа науки............................ 3ШМАТ В.В. Знания, инновации, «цифра», или от фабулы к сюжету? ............................3ЛОГИНОВ Д.М. Образовательные траектории трех российских поколений: от дошкольной подготовки к профессиональному образованию ............................5БЕЛАНОВСКИЙ С.А., НИКОЛЬСКАЯ А.В. Что не так с фокус-группами? ............................6ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКАНЕФЁДКИН В.И. Взаимодействие власти и бизнеса в долгосрочных проектах развития технопарковой инфраструктуры............................ 4МАКАРОВ А.В. Реновация аварийного и ветхого жилья – проблемы и риски законодательного регулирования и правоприменения ............................12БЕЛОВА Т.Н. «Сладкие» и «горькие» аргументы в пользу правильногопротекционизма ............................12ТРАНСГРАНИЧНОЕ ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЕШУРУБОВИЧ А.В., ПЫЛИН А.Г. Роль России в экономике и внешнеэкономических связях Монголии в современных условиях ............................4ЭКОНОМИКА ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯБЕЛЫХ В.В. Невидимые убытки прибыльных предприятий............................ 5КОБЫЛКО А.А. Функции управления в бизнес-экосистемах............................ 8МАРКОВА В.Д., КУЗНЕЦОВА С.А. Экосистемы как инновационный инструмент роста бизнеса ............................8ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ИСТОРИЯ РОССИИШАРАПОВ С.В. Хлебозаготовки в Западной Сибири в годы Великой Отечественной войны: планы и результаты............................ 5АНДРЕЕНКОВ С.Н. Адаптация крупных предприятий АПК Новосибирской области к рынку и ее экономические результаты в 1990-е гг. ............................5ХАНИН Г. И. Почему провалилась попытка ускорить научно-технический прогресс в перестроечном СССР .............................6МУНИЦИПАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫКОСТИНА Е.А., КОСТИН А.В. Технологии умного города против коронавируса ............................6БУРМАТОВА О.П. Концепция устойчивого развития умного города: экологический аспект ............................6ФИНАНСОВЫЙ СЕКТОРМАМУТА М.В., ЦЫГАНОВ А.А., ЯЗЫКОВ А.Д. Защита прав потребителей финансовых услуг в системе ипотечного кредитования ............................7КОЧЕРГИН Д.А., ИВАНОВА А.И. Стейблкойны: функциональные особенности и потенциал использования на финансовом рынке............................ 12КНИЖНАЯ ПОЛКАТЕСЛЯ П.Н. О социальных порядках, способах их постижения и конструирования (о новой книге В.М.Ефимова)............................ 7ХАНИН Г.И. Первый министр экономики РФ о начале радикальных экономических реформ (о книге А. Нечаева «Россия на переломе…») ............................10ФИНАНСЫПОЛЯКОВА Т.Н. Российский рынок акций в 2015-2020 гг.: общаяхарактеристика ............................11 «ЭКО»-информ«ЭКО»-информ ............................1Историко-экономический анализ нэпа............................ 11УКАЗАТЕЛЬ СТАТЕЙ И МАТЕРИАЛОВ, ОПУБЛИКОВАННЫХВ 2021 г. ..................................................................................12

Structures, actors and processes make up the unifying thread of the diversity of themes specific work on the articles that make up this issue of the magazine. Several texts point to federalism as a structuring dimension of the Argentine state in its three jurisdictional levels and the tensions that arise between the level national jurisdictional and sub-national levels. Niembro, Aristimuño and Del Bello subject to scrutiny the effective scope of the federalization objective in income to the career of scientific and technological researcher at CONICET; prove the uneven achievement of the same and the risks of a return to academicism that marked moments precedents of the organism. Fernando Rubino compares two experiences of associativism intermunicipal in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires and its effectiveness as management tool. Piana and Patiño Jaramillo focus on the organizational structures of the Public Administration of the province of Buenos Aires during the government of María Eugenia Vidal (2015-19), highlight the contrast between the official privatization discourse, anti-political, downsizing of the state and cutting expenses, the reality of growth of the resources and responsibilities of the agencies taken into account and the increase in political positions without specific functional involvement. The effective validity of the policy glacier protection in the provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego allows Ana Paula Lucero to identify and explain the tensions that arise between a federal political norm of universal application and the provincial interests derived from their specific endowment of resources and their own development strategies. The coupling between federal political institutions and processes and provincial regimes is explicit in the analysis of the electoral coalition building strategy of the UCR in the province of Santa Fe ahead of the 2019 elections, carried out by Ariadna Gallo and Carolina Pérez Roux. Since the 1980s, organizations of unemployed workers and residents of precarious communities have witnessed rapid growth in magnitude organizational, assertive effectiveness and formulation of public policy proposals; they relativized the formal quasi monopoly of the articulation of interests by political parties and the trade union movement, contributed to reformulate the conventional articulation between state and civil society. Julia Nesprias explores the evolution of the villero movement in the City of Buenos Aires in its articulation with the predominant institutional policies. The article by Maneiro and Núñez describes the process of struggle of the organizations of workers of the popular economy around the Social Emergency law of 2016, their strategies for building alliances with a wide range of society and the system political, in an institutional political environment of ruling neoliberalism. Finally Feldman and Girolimo analyze the promotion policies of Industry 4.0 in a context of accelerated technological change, taking as a reference the experiences recent developments in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil in digitization and automation of Productive processes; draw attention to the need for peripheral economies and the need to face these challenges so as not to deepen the existing gaps with respect to to the core countries. An analysis of political and administrative capacities is published in the Documents section of the state, from the perspective of the State and Public Administration Commission of the Homeland. This document is included as a contribution to the political-academic debate around the role of the public sector in promoting development with social equity. With this number the RPPP reaches its first decade of existence. In these ten years 150 articles and 42 reviews were accepted and published, of the more than 600 originals received. 69 articles published are by female authorship (46%), 68 by authorship masculine (45%) and 13 of authorship gender sharing; one sixth comes from authors affiliated with academic institutions abroad. The variety of your content, according to the breadth of its call and the wide field of analysis of the State and public policies, combines academic quality according to standards with the commitment to the substantive values that inspire and guide the National University of Lanús. ; Estructuras, actores y procesos conforman el hilo unificador de la diversidad de temas específicos trabajados por los artículos que integran el presente número de la revista. Varios textos apuntan al federalismo como dimensión estructurante del estado argentino en sus tres niveles jurisdiccionales y a las tensiones que se suscitan entre el nivel jurisdiccional nacional y los niveles subnacionales. Niembro, Aristimuño y Del Bello someten a escrutinio el efectivo alcance del objetivo de federalización en los ingresos a la carrera de investigador científico y tecnológico del CONICET; demuestran el desigual logro del mismo y los riesgos de un retorno al academicismo que signó momentos precedentes del organismo. Fernando Rubino compara dos experiencias de asociativismo intermunicipal en el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires y su eficacia como herramienta de gestión. Piana y Patiño Jaramillo enfocan las estructuras organizativas de la Administración Pública de la provincia de Buenos Aires durante la gobernación de María Eugenia Vidal (2015-19), destacan el contraste entre el discurso oficial privatizador, antipolítico, de achicamiento del estado y recorte de gastos, la realidad de crecimiento de los recursos e incumbencias de los organismos tomados en cuenta y el incremento de los cargos políticos sin afectación funcional específica. La efectiva vigencia de la política nacional de protección de glaciares en las provincias de Santa Cruz y Tierra del Fuego permite a Ana Paula Lucero identificar y explicar las tensiones que se suscitan entre una norma política federal de aplicación universal y los intereses provinciales derivados de su dotación específica de recursos y sus propias estrategias de desarrollo. El complejo acople entre instituciones y procesos políticos federales y regímenes provinciales se explicita en el análisis de la estrategia de construcción de coaliciones electorales de la UCR en la provincia de Santa Fe de cara a los comicios de 2019, llevado a cabo por Ariadna Gallo y Carolina Pérez Roux. Desde la década de 1980, las organizaciones de trabajadores desocupados y habitantes de comunidades precarizadas han dado testimonio de un acelerado crecimiento en magnitud organizativa, eficacia reivindicativa y formulación de propuestas de política pública; relativizaron el cuasi monopolio formal de articulación de intereses por los partidos políticos y el movimiento sindical, contribuyeron a reformular la convencional articulación entre estado y sociedad civil. Julia Nesprias explora la evolución del movimiento villero en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires en su articulación con las políticas institucionales predominantes. El artículo de Maneiro y Núñez describe el proceso de lucha de las organizaciones de trabajadores de la economía popular en torno a la ley de Emergencia Social de 2016, sus estrategias de construcción de alianzas con un amplio arco de la sociedad y del sistema político, en un ambiente político institucional de neoliberalismo gobernante. Finalmente Feldman y Girolimo analizan las políticas de promoción de la industria 4.0 en un contexto de cambio tecnológico acelerado, tomando como referencia las experiencias recientes de México, Argentina y Brasil en digitalización y automatización de procesos productivos; llaman la atención sobre la necesidad de las economías periféricas y la necesidad de afrontar estos desafíos para no profundizar las brechas existentes respecto a los países centrales. En la sección Documentos se publica un análisis de las capacidades políticas y administrativas del estado, desde la perspectiva de la Comisión Estado y Administración Pública del Instituto Patria. Se incluye este documento como un aporte al debate político-académico en torno al rol del sector público en la promoción del desarrollo con equidad social. Con este número la RPPP alcanza su primera década de existencia. En estos diez años fueron aceptados y publicados 150 artículos y 42 reseñas, de los más de 600 originales recibidos. 69 artículos publicados son de autoría femenina (46%), 68 de autoría masculina (45%) y 13 de compartición autoral de género; una sexta parte proviene de autoras y autores afiliados a instituciones académicas del exterior. La variedad de su contenido, acorde a la amplitud de su convocatoria y al amplio campo de análisis del Estado y las políticas públicas, conjuga la calidad académica de acuerdo a los estándares convencionales con el compromiso a los valores sustantivos que inspiran y orientan a la Universidad Nacional de Lanús. Carlos Vilas.