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The article makes an attempt to theoretically substantiate why intelligence is an independent instrument of state power, its common and distinctive features with other instruments of power. The paper also provides historical examples of the use of intelligence by various states to influence the behaviour of other states, as well as various approaches used therein.Some features of the use of the intelligence instrument of power by states in the conditions of the existence of bipolar and multipolar political systems are also highlighted in the article. It also draws attention to the incentives for the choice of intelligence as an alternative to other instruments of power in the context of the limiting impact of global collective security systems, in particular the United Nations.

Abstract

Research background
Geopolitical risk is currently recognized as a worldwide concern that significantly affects various economic sectors. As a consequence, rising geopolitical risks can cause a decline in the number of tourist arrivals.


Purpose
The aim of this paper is to examine the applicability of a commonly used dynamic model, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), in a panel data context and the effect of geopolitical risk on explaining tourist demand in chosen countries across long and short time periods.


Research methodology
On 18 developing economies, the Cross-sectionally Augmented Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) technique is used.


Results
The results of the test show interesting insights. Although the consequences of geopolitical threats in the short term are significant and have a negative impact on tourist arrivals, in the long term, results show there is no effect. Specifically, a rise in geopolitical risk decreases foreign visitor visits in the short term but has no lasting impact.


Novelty
Using an econometric model, this study contributes to the limited research on the link between geopolitical risk and tourist arrivals.

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