Suchergebnisse

In recent years, global geo-economic transformations have been considerably affected by the development of the People's Republic of China, its reviving leadership and ambitions, and its increasing efforts to reformat and integrate the Eurasian space. The One Belt — One Road Initiative is a manifesto and a tool to advance China's long-term geostrategic interests that spread to the bordering states and regions and to the prospects of their socioeconomic development. The initiative encompasses transportation and logistics, production and investment, finances, research and technology, humanitarian affairs, and foreign policy. In this article, we will highlight the key geoeconomic and geopolitical aspects of the One Belt — One Road initiative implementation, based on the Chinese and Russian studies. Another goal is to weigh up the risks and benefits associated with the extension of the project to Russian territories. Special attention is paid to Russia's western borderlands — 17 regions that account for 8.6 % of the country's territory, 17.4 % of the total GRP, and 20.8 % of the national population. We analyse the factors in effect — including geopolitical ones, as well as current trends in the development of Russia's western borderlands. It is shown that the inclusion into the Chinese Eurasian integration initiatives creates additional incentives for a positive re-evaluation of the Russian space as a whole and holds special relevance for Russia's western borderlands. We analyse the possibility of including Russia's Baltic regions — the infrastructural and economic island of the Kaliningrad exclave among them — into the One Belt — One Road Initiative.

International audience ; [After the Soviet collapse and the dismantling of the iron curtain in 1989-1990, Eu-rope as a whole became an area of immigration, less intense than North America. Then, in the middle of 2010, the migratory importance of Europe becomes first. Thus, by 2015, Europe has the highest rate of migratory growth on major continents. It is therefore im-portant to examine the factors explaining this situation. However, in this context of a globally attractive continent, it is necessary to analyze the national varieties in the mi-gratory systems, especially that of France which results from various specificities.] ; Après l'effondrement soviétique et le démantèlement du rideau de fer en 1989-1990, l'Europe dans son ensemble devient une zone d'immigration, d'une intensité tou-tefois moindre qu'en Amérique du Nord. Puis, au milieu des années 2010, l'Europe passe au premier plan en tant qu'espace migratoire puisque, en 2015, elle enregistre le taux d'accroissement migratoire le plus élevé des grandes aires continentales. Il importe donc de s'interroger sur les facteurs explicatifs de cette situation. Toutefois, dans cet es-pace globalement attractif, il faut analyser les variantes nationales des systèmes migra-toires, plus particulièrement celui de la France, qui résulte de diverses spécificités.

International audience ; [After the Soviet collapse and the dismantling of the iron curtain in 1989-1990, Eu-rope as a whole became an area of immigration, less intense than North America. Then, in the middle of 2010, the migratory importance of Europe becomes first. Thus, by 2015, Europe has the highest rate of migratory growth on major continents. It is therefore im-portant to examine the factors explaining this situation. However, in this context of a globally attractive continent, it is necessary to analyze the national varieties in the mi-gratory systems, especially that of France which results from various specificities.] ; Après l'effondrement soviétique et le démantèlement du rideau de fer en 1989-1990, l'Europe dans son ensemble devient une zone d'immigration, d'une intensité tou-tefois moindre qu'en Amérique du Nord. Puis, au milieu des années 2010, l'Europe passe au premier plan en tant qu'espace migratoire puisque, en 2015, elle enregistre le taux d'accroissement migratoire le plus élevé des grandes aires continentales. Il importe donc de s'interroger sur les facteurs explicatifs de cette situation. Toutefois, dans cet es-pace globalement attractif, il faut analyser les variantes nationales des systèmes migra-toires, plus particulièrement celui de la France, qui résulte de diverses spécificités.

Russia needs to fit into the international geopolitical and geo-economic landscape. The formation of this landscape is largely determined by alternating integration and disintegration cycles in the development of the world economy. The second global disintegration cycle that started in 2008 is expected to last 15—20 years. It will be followed by a new integration cycle, largely dependent on China (Pax Sinensis instead of Pax Americana). This change necessitates a number of steps: a significant strengthening of the Eastern vector in the development of Russia, the formation of the Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle (Evgeny Primakov's idea) as well as providing access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from East Siberia by railway to the Chinese and Indian markets. Russia has expressed its interest in the construction of a railway from China to India. It will allow Russia to reduce transportation costs and use a potentially heavy transit traffic for the modernization of the Transsibirian railway. These steps could radically change the role of the Baltic exclave of Russia: from being a 'window to Europe' the region is to turn into the westernmost point of a infrastructure axis extending from east to west. The creation of such an axis, combined with a sharp fall in transportation costs will facilitate the access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from the Urals and Siberia to the Asian and European markets. The Kaliningrad region is increasingly taking on business facilitating functions, which used to be performed by the Soviet Baltic republics in the past. The region can play a more important role in the formation of Eurasia stretching from Shanghai to St. Petersburg (according to Dmitry Trenin), instead of the Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

Durch die Verschärfung der Ukraine-Krise scheint die Gasversorgungssicherheit Europas wieder einmal gefährdet. Auch wenn Europa und Deutschland kurz- bis mittelfristig keine glaubhafte Alternative zu Gaslieferungen aus Russland finden können, sollten energiepolitische, geopolitische und geoökonomische Überlegungen die EU und Deutschland dazu bewegen, weitere Optionen jenseits des Traditionspartners Russland ernsthaft abzuwägen. Eine solche wäre Iran. In ihren Beziehungen zu beiden Ländern müssten die EU und Deutschland - auch im Sinne der jüngsten Signale aus Washington - eine Balance zwischen den eigenen Wertvorstellungen und Interessen einerseits und grundsätzlicher Kooperationsbereitschaft andererseits finden. Während die Basis einer Kooperation mit Russland durch eine härtere Konfrontation und neue Sanktionen gefährdet aber noch vorhanden ist, könnte Iran erst zu einer glaubhaften politischen Alternative werden, wenn das Sanktionsregime endgültig ausgesetzt und die politischen Beziehungen, insbesondere zwischen den USA und Iran, auf Dauer normalisiert wären. Die überraschende de facto Lockerung der bisherigen Sanktionen seitens der USA, die Verlängerung der Atomverhandlungen sowie die signalisierte Bereitschaft Irans, das Zusatzprotokoll unter bestimmten Bedingungen zu unterschreiben - all dies sind Zeichen dafür, dass sich ein - wenngleich fragiles - Zeitfenster geöffnet hat.