Suchergebnisse

Compares conditions influencing war choices in Vietnam and in the Persian Gulf and argues that Gulf war decisions were determined by policy toward the Middle East; 2 articles.

Innovations involving information technology (IT) provide potentially valuable investment opportunities for industry and government organizations. Significant uncertainties are associated with decision-making for IT investment though, a problem that senior executives have been concerned about for a long time. The uncertainties include consumer, market and regulatory responses, IT-driven changes in operational and transactional performance, technology standards and competition, and future market conditions. All these things have an impact on organizations' willingness to adopt. As a result, traditional capital budgeting, investment experience, and intuition have not been very effective in IT investment decision-making. We propose a new option-based stochastic valuation modeling approach for IT investment under uncertainty that incorporates a mean reversion process to capture cost and benefit flow variations over time. We apply the proposed approach in two industry settings: to a largescale IT investment in the consolidation of data marts at a major airline, and to a mobile payment system infrastructure investment on the part of a start-up. The applications supported the evaluation of the proposed methods, and offered some illustrations about the kinds of managerial insights that can be obtained. We also report on several extensions that demonstrate how the creation of useful management findings from the modeling approach can be supplemented with project value sensitivity analysis and the use of simulation-based least-squares Monte Carlo valuation. The findings are useful to assess the power and value of the approach.

The mesolimbic dopaminergic system exerts a crucial influence on incentive processing. However, the contribution of dopamine in dynamic, ecological situations where reward rates vary, and decisions evolve over time, remains unclear. In such circumstances, current (foreground) reward accrual needs to be compared continuously with potential rewards that could be obtained by travelling elsewhere (background reward rate), in order to determine the opportunity cost of staying versus leaving. We hypothesised that dopamine specifically modulates the influence of background - but not foreground - reward information when making a dynamic comparison of these variables for optimal behaviour. On a novel foraging task based on an ecological account of animal behaviour (marginal value theorem), human participants of either sex decided when to leave locations in situations where foreground rewards depleted at different rates, either in rich or poor environments with high or low background rates. In line with theoretical accounts, people's decisions to move from current locations were independently modulated by changes in both foreground and background reward rates. Pharmacological manipulation of dopamine D2 receptor activity using the agonist cabergoline significantly affected decisions to move on, specifically modulating the effect of background reward rates. In particular, when on cabergoline, people left patches in poor environments much earlier. These results demonstrate a role of dopamine in signalling the opportunity cost of rewards, not value per se. Using this ecologically derived framework we uncover a specific mechanism by which D2 dopamine receptor activity modulates decision-making when foreground and background reward rates are dynamically compared.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTMany decisions, across economic, political and social spheres, involve choices to "leave". Such decisions depend on a continuous comparison of a current location's value, with that of other locations you could move on to. However, how the brain makes such decisions is poorly understood. Here, we developed a computerized task, based around theories of how animals make decisions to move on when foraging for food. Healthy human participants had to decide when to leave collecting financial rewards in a location, and travel to collect rewards elsewhere. Using a pharmacological manipulation, we show that the activity of dopamine in the brain modulates decisions to move on, with people valuing other locations differently depending on their dopaminergic state.

The use of the phrase, 'political economy' originates in Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and is also found in the writings of David Ricardo and Karl Marx. What is presently understood as 'economics' was, at that time, termed 'political economy'. This was understood to mean 'conditions of production organization in nation-states' (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012, Beuran, Raballand and Kapoor, 2011). Venerable scholars such as Smith, Ricardo, Mills, Rosseau, Ruskin and de Tocqueville, took a consistently holistic view of the interaction between economics (technical means of production) and politics (relationships of production) in their debates on wealth, prosperity, and international trade, and explanations of development outcomes. However, subsequently, 'economics' and 'political science' developed along parallel tracks, constraining us from fully exploring their interactions and joint contribution to incomes, livelihoods and to economic development more generally. For the forestry sector too, when stakeholders' power and influence is uneven, vested interests get to control the resource, and institutions are weak (or deliberately weakened by the same vested interests) the result is resource plunder, institutional erosion and breakdown of the rule of law and concentration of wealth in a few hands. (In the next section of this chapter, specific examples from forestry will illustrate these challenges clearly). If we are to come to grips with the fundamentals determining sustainable forest management, there is a need to develop a good understanding of stakeholder interests and the complex balance of power relationships, via political economy analysis. Thus, the major objective of this report is to offer preliminary guidance to conduct a practical political economy analysis for the forest sector. The report provides this guidance by considering eight 'front-runner' political economy analysis approaches that have emerged over the last few years. In principle all are capable of being applied to address political economy challenges in forestry and the report develops a set of criteria, geared to political economy considerations for forestry, which would assist a practitioner in selecting among the available approaches.