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The attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, in September 2013 intensified international scrutiny of the war against Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen (Movement of the Warrior Youth). This article analyses the current state of affairs with reference to the three principal sets of actors in this war: Al-Shabaab, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its international partners, and the various actors currently involved in building the Somali Federal Government's security forces. It argues that although the newly reconfigured Al-Shabaab poses a major tactical threat in Somalia and across the wider Horn of Africa, the movement is becoming a less important actor in Somalia's national politics. As Al-Shabaab loses territory and its popularity among Somalis continues to dwindle, other clan- and region-based actors will become more salient as national debates over federalism, the decentralization of governance mechanisms beyond Mogadishu and the place of clannism will occupy centre stage. As a consequence, AMISOM's principal roles should gradually shift from degrading Al-Shabaab towards a broader stabilization agenda: encouraging a national consensus over how to build effective governance structures; developing an effective set of Somali National Security Forces; and ensuring that the Federal Government delivers services and effective governance to its citizens, especially beyond Mogadishu in the settlements recently captured from Al-Shabaab. As it stands, however, AMISOM is not prepared to carry out these activities. More worryingly, nor is the Somali Federal Government. (International Affairs (Oxford) / SWP)

International development is in a period of transition. While the outcome of this is still unclear, this article argues that there are at least four areas in which the project of international development is changing. First, there is a debate, especially within the World Bank, about development strategy and how we think about development, particularly in terms of the balance between states and markets. This is evident in the debate over state failure and the new structural economics. Second, there is increasing evidence of a shift in lending, away from projects of 'small' human development, perhaps best encapsulated by the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, towards more transformative 'big' development projects such as infrastructure. Third, 'non-traditional' aid donors and new forms of private philanthropy are playing a more significant role in development financing and this, in turn, offers developing countries a new range of choices about what kinds of development assistance they receive. Fourth, aid relations are changing as a result of the renewed agency of developing states, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and shifts towards increased South-South cooperation are growing as evidenced by increased funding from regional development banks and increased trade flows. The article reviews these changes and suggests a series of questions and challenges that arise from them for analysts of international development, developing countries and traditional aid donors. (International Affairs (Oxford) / SWP)

Climate is frequently used to predict the outcome of species introductions based on the results from species distribution models (SDMs). However, despite the widespread use of SDMs for pre- and post-border risk assessments, data that can be used to validate predictions is often not available until after an invasion has occurred. Here we explore the potential for using historical forestry trials to assess the performance of climate-based SDMs. SDMs were parameterized based on the native range distribution of 36 Australian acacias, and predictions were compared against both the results of 150 years of government forestry trials, and current invasive distribution in southern Africa using true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity. Classification tree analysis was used to evaluate why some Australian acacias failed in trials while others were successful. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invaded range (sensitivity = 0.87) and success in forestry trials (sensitivity = 0.80), but forestry trial failures were under-predicted (specificity = 0.35). Notably, for forestry trials, the success in trials was greater for species invasive somewhere in the world. SDM predictions also indicate a considerable invasion potential of eight species that are currently naturalized but not yet widespread. Forestry trial data clearly provides a useful additional source of data to validate and refine SDMs in the context of risk assessment. Our study identified the climatic factors required for successful invasion of acacias, and accentuates the importance of integration of status elsewhere for risk assessment.

Estimates suggest that over 90% of population increase in the least developed countries over the next four decades will occur in urban areas. These increases will be driven both by natural population growth and rural-urban migration. Moreover, despite its status as the world's least urbanized region, the urban population in the sub-Saharan Africa region is projected to increase from under 40% currently to over 60% by 2050. Currently, approximately 70% of all urban residents in the region live in slums or slum-like conditions. Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) risks for the urban poor are severe and include high rates of unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted infections, and poor maternal and child health outcomes. However, the links between poverty, urbanization, and reproductive health priorities are still not a major focus in the broader development agenda. Building on theoretical and empirical data, we show that SRH in urban contexts is critical to the development of healthy productive urban populations and, ultimately, the improvement of quality of life. We posit that a strategic focus on the sexual and reproductive health of urban residents will enable developing country governments achieve international goals and national targets by reducing health risks among a large and rapidly growing segment of the population. To that end, we identify key research, policy and program recommendations and strategies required for bringing sexual and reproductive health in urban contexts to the forefront of the development agenda.

This edited book resulted from two days of intensive seminar organized by the Centre of Development and International relations at Aalborg University. The seminar invited scholars from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The book rigorously examines the complex relationships between trans-nationality, development and global governance. Among the main influential actors of this trans-nationality include transnational NGOs that often provide remarkable humanitarian and developmental solutions at multiple levels in diverse societies around the world. At the same time transnational NGOs can also negatively impact and complicate processes of state building and consolidation, particularly in the developing world. In applying different theoretical and empirical perspectives, the diverse cases presented in this book critically inquire whether transnational NGOs have the potential- while operating within the domain of the current state centric global system- to imagine and co-implement general global transformations, or whether such movements in their varieties of organizations, networks, associations, and interactions could represent organic counter-hegemonic platforms of social forces that creatively- not just relate to challenges at the national level to those at global level- but also to progressively forge creative forms of global solidarity and sustainability. The contributions of the book comparatively analyse this ambivalent role of transnational NGOs. The different chapters interrogate the paradoxes, ambiguities and contradictions characterising transnational NGOs at the national, international, transnational and civil society levels.

The occurrence of supply chain management bottlenecks in the sugarcane industry is the major cause of post-harvest changes resulting in sucrose degradation during harvest-to-crush delay. The present work reports the post-harvest quality changes in green harvested sugarcane, during a nine-day harvest-to-crush delay from the Kwa-Zulu Natal Midlands in South Africa. The total soluble solids (TSS), respiration rate, total bacterial count (TBC), and lactic acid (LA) concentrations were examined for internode-specific susceptibility to deterioration across the stems. There were significant increases in TSS in the top internodes implying the incidence of comparatively high physiological changes in these portions. For respiration rates, the trends were similar in the two outermost portions in contrast to the middle portions. Carbon dioxide levels were highest in the top internodes and least in the middle portions. Similarly, for TBC, out of the two cut ends, the top portions sustained higher populations. LA was only detectable in the outermost portions starting from day 5 in N12 and day 7 in N31, respectively. The findings of this study showed that there is a variation in the rate of post-harvest changes sustained in the different internodes of a stalk. Thus, development of indices to detect deterioration signals during harvest-to-crush delay, in the high sucrose environment of the sugarcane stem, should consider this differential rate of postharvest metabolic change of harvested whole stalks.

Статья посвящена сравнительному анализу подходов ведущих политических демографов к оценке роли демографических процессов в глобальной политике в первой половине XXI в. В статье описаны важнейшие политические и экономические последствия основных демографических трендов, таких как депопуляция и старение населения в прежних демографических центрах, ускоренная урбанизация в беднейших странах Латинской Америки, Азии и Африки, перемещение демографических центров из стран глобального Севера в страны глобального Юга, массовые миграционные потоки с Юга на Север. Уделяется внимание исследованию демографии как фактора сохранения геополитической мощи, обеспечения военно-политической безопасности и глобального лидерства в первой половине XXI в.The article is devoted to the comparative analysis of approaches of leading political demographers to an assessment of a role of demographic processes in global policy in the first half of the 21 st century. Major social, political and economic consequences of the main demographic trends for global society are described. The author made a comparative analysis of depopulation and population aging processes in the former demographic centers, fast process of urbanization in the poorest countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa, re-movement of demographic centers from countries of the Global North to countries of the Global South, mass migratory streams from the Global South to the Global North. Special attention is paid to the research of demography as a factor of saving geopolitical power, ensuring military and political safety and global leadership in the first half of the 21 st century.

Регулярный военно-морской флот Римской империи оформился уже при Августе. Основными военно-морскими базами стали Мизены и Равенна. В провинциях при Августе и его ближайших преемниках были сформированы небольшие постоянные эскадры. Вплоть до IV в. военно-морской флот главным образом осуществлял перевозку сухопутных войск. Однако с появлением в Африке государства вандалов империя снова стала нуждаться в сильном флоте. В VII столетии, когда Византию атакуют арабы, была реформирована вся административная и военная система империи и созданы провинциальные фемы. Аналогичные процессы происходили не только в армии, но и во флоте. В XI в. Византия постепенно утрачивает свое морское могущество, что имело самые печальные последствия в ее дальнейшей судьбе. Успех Четвертого крестового похода был в значительной степени обусловлен абсолютной беззащитностью империи на море. ; The regular Navy of the Roman Empire was already formed during the reign of the Emperor Augustus. The major naval bases were at Misenum and Ravenna. Until the IV th century the Navy was mainly carrying Earth troops. However, Africa being occupied by vandals, the Empire held a strong Navy. In the VII th century, when the Arabs attack the Byzantine Empire the system administrative and military Byzantine was reformed. This evolution took place not only in the army, but in the Navy. In the XI th century, Byzantium is gradually losing its maritime power. This process had most painful consequences in the future. The Empire's maritime weakness largely explains the success of the Fourth Crusade.

The claim to successfully have eliminated racism and xenophobia in socialist Germany was crucial for the GDR's demarcation against the Federal Republic and for GDR's political self-conception. According to the state party SED, both the GDR's government and its people met with all members of the working class, regardless their ethnicity or culture, in the spirit of Völkerfreundschaft – the peoples' friendship. In the early 1960s, suffering from a lack of work power, the GDR began to recruit foreign workers, and continued to do so up until German reunification. When workers arrived from Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa and Asia, the propositions of antiracism and peoples' friendship were tested in practice. Following a discourse-analytical approach this study analyzes how the ideal of Völkerfreundschaft was reproduced, exploited and altered both by citizens communicating with the state and within party-loyal circles. It examines when, why and by whom ethnicity was downplayed in favor of common class affiliation, and under which circumstances it regained importance. While latest research on foreigners in the GDR has focused on diagnosing the discrepancy between ideological claims and reality this study goes beyond such an approach and analyzes how this discrepancy was dealt with – both by state authorities, the state-owned factories and ordinary people – in everyday life. This study is a contribution to migration research, as well as to everyday-life-history and history of mentality in the GDR.

The work led by Dorval Brunelle is a selection of eighteen papers presented in 2010 at the International Symposium of the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (IEIM) under the theme 'Rethinking the Atlantic'; conference with one of the objectives was to provide an alternative perspective on the complex interactions between various actors coexisting in the interior of the Atlantic area in the context of redefinition of the geopolitical and geo-economics has international scale. In other words, the book is part of a renewed perspective of knowledge about the Atlanticist vision of yesterday is no longer adapted to the geostrategic, current political and economic context. The factors involved include the rise in power of China and Southeast Asia as well as transmission ratio of trade intersecting North-South/South-South that would have added in recent years to transatlantic exchanges and those made along both the eastern and western borders. The book thus offers a resolutely Tricontinental approach founded on a generally enlarged Atlantic area would be bordered to the west by the Americas and east through Africa. This orientation allows to consider alternative possibilities for reflection on the Atlantic transversality, which is full of unsuspected synergies and provides opportunites codevelopment particularly adapted to the current environment and global issues such as social cohesion, sustainable development, the climate change, biodiversity, maritime security, migration, terrorism and trafficking of all kinds (p. 1). Adapted from the source document.

This paper contributes to a growing body of literature on the political economy of public finance in developing countries. Its main methodological interest is to demonstrate the usability of household-level data to study political economy features of public finances in developing countries that commonly escape empirical scrutiny due to poor data availability. The empirical interest is in testing whether there is evidence for or against either of two competing models of political targeting of public sector spending: the swing-voter versus the core-voter model, the proposition being that in "typical" neo-patrimonial regimes in sub-Saharan Africa, the corevoter model should prevail. I use data from Zambia's Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) to investigate whether there is evidence that the ruling party in Zambia followed political motives in targeting public infrastructure spending at the turn of the millennium, and whether there is evidence that such targeting falls in line with either of these two models. I find strong and robust evidence for the core-voter model applying to social infrastructure provision in Zambia. The findings suggest that it is primarily the construction of new health and education facilities that is affected by political targeting, whereas there is no strong evidence for such targeting for the improvement and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure. For roads construction or rehabilitation, I find no evidence of similar political targeting.

The American Society of African Culture : the CIA and transnational networks among African diaspora intellectuals / Hugh Wilford -- The American Federation of Labor and the Nordic non-communist left / Dino Knudsen -- Brother tronchet : a Swiss trade union leader within the American sphere of influence / Luc van Dongen -- Not an ugly American : Sal Tas, a Dutch reporter as agent of the West in Africa / Tity de Vries -- Paix et liberté : the formative transnational anti-communist network / Bernard Ludwig -- Gathering the exiles : the assembly of captive European nations / Martin Nekola -- The formation and mutations of the World Anti-communist League / Pierre Abramovici -- The necessity of going transnational : the role of interdoc / Giles Scott-Smith -- Brian Crozier and the Institute for the Study of Conflict / Jeff Michaels -- Global crusade against communism : the Cercle during the "second cold war" / Adrian Hänni -- The sovietology of Józef M. Bocheński : transnational activism from Switzerland, 1955-1965 / Matthieu Gillabert -- Suzanne Labin : an Atlanticist anti-communist professional / Olivier Dard -- The Mont Pelerin Society and the rise of the postwar neoliberal counter-establishment / Niels Bjerre-Poulsen -- Better dead than red : Wilhelm Röpke, a neoliberal anti-communist / Jean Solchany -- Transnational anti-communist fundamentalism : the International Council of Christian Churches / Markku Ruotsila -- A Christian kominform? : the Comité international de défense de la civilisation chrétienne / Johannes Grossmann -- Bible smuggling and human rights in the Soviet Bloc during the cold war / Bent Boel