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Over the next couple of years, the European Union will face a difficult stage, being confronted with the eventual transition to a monetary union. In the beginning of 1997, it is less clear than ever, if and when the European Monetary Union will eventually be realized, which countries will join in this process, and which countries will benefit from monetary union or are likely to loose out. Using econometric methods, the work attempts to assess the real economic effects of the European Monetary Union. In a first step, differences in labor and goods market adjustment processes between the fifteen member states of the European Union, the United States and Canada are studied in order to evaluate the short-term prospects of monetary union. Turning to the long-run effects, within a second step, convergence of living standards is assessed.

Over the next couple of years, the European Union will face a difficult stage, being confronted with the eventual transition to a monetary union. In the beginning of 1997, it is less clear than ever, if and when the European Monetary Union will eventually be realized, which countries will join in this process, and which countries will benefit from monetary union or are likely to loose out. Using econometric methods, the work attempts to assess the real economic effects of the European Monetary Union. In a first step, differences in labor and goods market adjustment processes between the fifteen member states of the European Union, the United States and Canada are studied in order to evaluate the short-term prospects of monetary union. Turning to the long-run effects, within a second step, convergence of living standards is assessed.

"The subject matter of international economics, then, consists of issues raised by the special problems of economic interaction between sovereign states." (Krugman et al., 2011)Institutional innovation fosters the development of these interactions. Thus, European states, on a social background, try to benefit from the cooperation leverage effect, to turn centuries of conflicts, into an economic asset. Such a construction and its pantagruelian twists and turns, as a fusion of history and empires, not far from Victor Hugo's utopia "the United-State of Europe", demonstrates the incredible ingenuity, national heterogeneities develop to refine the paradigm "Europe".In this thesis, we propose to shed some light on some of these challenges, with regard to the countries which, not half a century ago, marked the fracture of the continent, CEECs. These economies, from transition to developed economy, are an unprecedented case study, to understand international economic challenges. After explaining the general framework, in which this work takes place (Chapter 1), we investigate the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, on the peripheral countries of the euro zone, i.e., EU non-Euro members. In chapter 2, we construct two groups of countries, depending on their exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible). Drawn upon this construction, using monetary, price and output data, we measure the impact of a monetary shock, impulsed by the ECB, on the CEECs. We find that economic integration induces spillover effects, that influence domestic monetary decisions. As expected, pegged economies are more strongly affected, by the monetary policy of the ECB. However, in both groups of countries, we find that spillovers tend to have less impact, on the volatility of our variables (GDP and prices), over the last decade. We explain this, via a more efficient exchange rate channel, to absorb shocks (in flexible exchange) and an increased credibility of domestic monetary institutions.We highlighted that spillovers effects significantly influence the CEECs, with direct impact upon domestic monetary challenges. The first phase of the transition, during the 90's, has been hit by high level of both inflation and unemployment. Over the last years, inflation seems to be under control, and we observe relatively low unemployment rate, closed to its natural level. This could suggest that monetary credibility has been restored. However, in the process of accession to the Euro zone, monetary leeway is becoming increasingly restricted.Throughout Chapter 3, we use the well-known Phillips curve, to understand the relationship between the unemployment rate and price developments, as a proxy for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The Baltic States, Slovenia and Slovakia are perfect candidates to measure the impact of changes in exchange rate regimes, during accession to the EA. During the ERM-II, the relationship is negative and significant. However, the EA entry is prima facie evidence of a flattened Phillips curve. We explain this result by the fact that in a monetary union, "small" economies do not have sufficient power, to significantly influence monetary policy decisions.To be fully effective, the single policy of the ECB must confront, relatively homogeneous economies. This homogeneity transcends the monetary dimension and directly affects the real economy (evidenced by the Phillips curve). The impacts of asymmetric shocks are smoothed through the adjustment mechanisms in an optimal union. Among these mechanisms, we highlight the role of the labour market, which requires flexibility (of wages) and increased factor mobility. Chapter 4 analyses regional adjustment mechanisms, after an exogenous employment shock. Using regional NUTS-II data, we build a VAR panel, to understand these mechanisms. (.) ; "Le sujet de l'économie internationale consiste, donc, en des questions soulevées, par les problèmes particuliers, de l'interaction économique, entre États souverains." (Krugman et al., 2011)L'innovation institutionnelle se met au service de ces interactions. Ainsi les pays européens, sur fond social, tentent d'utiliser le levier de la coopération économique, pour permettre à des siècles de conflits, de se transformer en atout économique. Une telle construction, aux pantagruéliques rebondissements, fusion d'Histoire et d'empires, non loin de l'utopie États-Unis d'Europe de Victor Hugo, démontre l'incroyable ingéniosité, avec laquelle les hétérogénéités nationales semblent parfaire le paradigme Europe. Nous proposons, dans cette thèse, d'éclairer certains de ces défis, au regard des pays qui, il n'y a pas un demi-siècle, marquaient la fracture du continent, les PECO. Ces économies, passées du stade en transition à économie développée, sont un cas d'étude sans précédent pour la compréhension des challenges économiques internationaux. Après avoir explicité le cadre général, dans lequel s'inscrivent ces travaux (chapitre 1), nous tâchons d'éclairer l'impact, de la politique monétaire de la BCE, sur les pays périphériques de la zone Euro, cependant membre de l'UE. Dans ce chapitre 2, nous construisons deux groupes de pays, selon leur régime de change envers l'Euro (fixe ou flexible). A partir de là, en utilisant des données monétaires, de prix et de production, nous mesurons l'impact d'un choc monétaire, par la BCE, sur les PECO. Nous trouvons que l'intégration économique induit des effets de débordement qui viennent influencer les décisions monétaires domestiques. De manière cohérente, les pays en change fixe, subissent plus fortement la politique monétaire de la BCE. Cependant, dans les deux groupes de pays, nous trouvons que les débordements ont tendance, à avoir moins d'impact, sur la volatilité de nos variables, au cours de la dernière décennie. Nous l'expliquons, par un canal du taux de change, plus efficace, pour absorber les chocs (en change flexible) et une crédibilité accrue des institutions monétaires domestiques.Alors que nous venons de voir que des effets de débordement agissent dans les PECO, nous ne pouvons, nous empêcher, de relier cela, aux enjeux monétaires domestiques. La première phase de la transition, au cours des 90's, a été marquée par une forte inflation et par un taux de chômage très élevé. Ces dernières années sont sous le signe d'une inflation, qui semble maitrisée et d'un chômage relativement faible. Cela laisse à penser, que la crédibilité monétaire et que l'efficacité des banques centrales domestiques, ont été restaurées.Pourtant dans le processus d'accession à la zone Euro, les marges de manœuvre monétaires deviennent toujours plus restreintes. Tout au long du chapitre 3, nous utilisons la célèbre courbe de Phillips pour appréhender la relation, entre le taux de chômage et l'évolution des prix, comme proxy de l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Les pays Baltes, la Slovénie et la Slovaquie nous permettent de mesurer l'impact des changements, de régimes de change, au cours de l'accession à la zone Euro. Dans le MCE-II, la relation est négative et significative. Néanmoins celle-ci disparait, au moment d'entrer dans l'union monétaire. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le fait que dans une union monétaire, les "petites" économies n'ont pas un poids suffisant pour influencer significativement les décisions de politiques monétaires.Si pour être pleinement efficace, la politique unique de la BCE doit se confronter, à des économies relativement homogènes, cette homogénéité transcende la sphère monétaire et touche directement l'économie réelle (en témoigne la courbe de Phillips). Les mécanismes d'ajustements, dans une union optimale, permettent de lisser l'impact des chocs asymétriques. Pour cela, le marché du travail nécessite une flexibilité (des salaires) et une mobilité des facteurs accrue. (.)

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BUILDING EX-ANTE RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS -- A. Introduction -- B. Resilient Investment: Model Simulations -- C. Quantifying Insurance Needs: A Layering Framework -- D. Conclusions: Putting it all Together -- References -- APPENDICES -- I. Model Assumptions -- II. Parameter Calibration -- III. Insurance Simulation Methodology -- RESILIENT FISCAL FRAMEWORKS FOR THE ECCU: A ROADMAP -- A. Introduction -- B. Diagnosing ECCU's Fiscal Problems -- C. International Experience with Fiscal Responsibility Frameworks -- D. Designing Resilient Fiscal Frameworks for the ECCU -- E. Concluding Remarks -- References -- BOX -- 1. Options for Escape Clauses for Natural Disasters in the FRFs -- APPENDICES -- I. Tools Used to Evaluate the Fiscal Framework Design -- II Analysis of ECCU-6 Fiscal Performance -- III. Institutional Factors to Underpin the ECCU FRFs.

The main objective of the study is to analyze the most important determinants of monetary poverty (at macro-level) in the Western EU countries taking into account the effects of regional spillovers. According to the latest estimates over 16 per cent of the EU citizens are poor (based on monetary concept). Using Europe 2020 strategy indicator people at risk of poverty or social exclusion over 23 percent of EU citizens can be considered poor. In this study a spatial Durbin model (SDM) is employed. The sample includes 145 regions at NUTS-2 (in few cases at NUTS-1) level of 11 countries from the western part of the European Union. The at-risk-of-poverty rate (i.e. monetary poverty indicator) across western EU regions is the dependent variable, and four explanatory variables are employed in the study: disposable per capita income; long-term unemployment rate; education level and population density. All variables refer to observation year 2008. In order to quantify the impacts of explanatory variables the scalar summary measures are used. According to the results two non-spatially lagged explanatory variables (education and population density) and two spatially lagged explanatory variables (income and education) are not statistically significant. In terms of the scalar summary impact measures the following patterns can be observed: average direct impacts, as well as indirect and total impacts of income are negative. Average direct impacts of unemployment are positive, average indirect impacts are negative, and the average total effects are statistically insignificant. Average direct effects of population density are not statistically significant, but indirect and total effects are positive. Impacts of proxy for education level (defined as share of persons aged 25-64 with lower secondary education attainment) are statistically not significant. Such a result cannot not be interpreted in the sense that education has no impact on poverty levels. On the other hand we can assume that the given proxy measures only quantity, not the quality of education, and hence the variable is not significant.

This book brings together a diverse group of experts on international monetary policy to examine the basic conceptual issues of currency unions and other monetary regimes, including flexible and fixed exchange rates, and assess the available empirical evidence on the performance of these alternative monetary systems. They also draw some policy conclusions on the desirability of currency unions for countries in various circumstances.

Monetary Union marks the crowning step in the process of economic integration in Europe. This scenario of one currency, one market and 11 member countries raises the issue of whether further political integration is needed to complement the union already achieved in the monetary and economic fields. While there are pressures for change to the current status quo from several directions, further political integration will depend on the success of Monetary Union which crucially requires that countries tackle their reform challenges.

Recent theoretical research has studied extensively the link between wage setting and monetary policymaking in unionized economies. This paper addresses the question of the role of monetary uncertainty from both an empirical and theoretical point of view. Our analysis is based on a simple model that derives the influence of monetary uncertainty on unionized wage setting. We construct an indicator of monetary policy uncertainty and test our model with data for the G5 countries. The central finding is that monetary policy uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal wage growth in countries where wage setting is relatively centralized. This result is consistent with recent theoretical approaches to central bank transparency and wage setting.

4b. Balance of Payments, 2016-25 (Percent of GDP)5. External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2019-25; 6. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2019-29; ANNEXES; I. Impact of Cyclone Kenneth on Macroeconomic Performance; II. Risk Assessment Matrix; III. External Stability Assessment; APPENDIX; I. Letter of Intent

Balıkesir Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı ; Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği ile 1963'de ortak üye olarak ilişkisi, 1996 yılı başından itibaren Avrupa Gümrük Birliği'ne katılma şeklinde sonuçlanmıştır. Türkiye bugün tam üyelik statüsünü kazanamamış olsa dahi, nihai amaç budur ve kendi siyasal, sosyal, kültürel ve ekonomik yapısını, politikalarını ve kurumlarını tam üye olacakmışçasına şekillendirmektedir. Bu çalışmamızda, Avrupa Birliği'nin kuruluş ve amaçlan, gelişim süreci ve Türkiye'nin bu toplulukla olan ilişkisi ana hatlarıyla özetlendikten sonra, bugün Avrupa Birliği'nin "Parasal Birliği" oluşturma çabalan, parasal birliğin koşulları ve karşılaşılan sıkıntılar incelenmiş ve Türkiye'nin önümüzdeki 10-15 yıl içerisinde Birliğin tam üyesi olabileceği varsayımı ile Avrupa Para Birliği gelişmeleri karşısında durumu değerlendirilmiştir. Tam üye olarak Avrupa Birliği'ne katılması halinde Türkiye, Avrupa Para Birliği oluşumu karşısında mevcut iki alternatiften birini seçecektir. Bu altenatiflerden biri Avrupa Para Birliği'ne katılmamak ancak gelişmeleri dışarıdan takip etmektir. Diğer alternatif ise tam üyelikle birlikte Avrupa Para Birliği'ne de katılmaktır. Bu ise, Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği Antlaşması'nda öngörülen Ekonomik Parasal Birliğin makroekonomik yaklaşım kriterlerini yerine getirmesini veya bu kriterlerini bütünüyle yerine getiremese bile, en azından AB ortalama değerlerine yaklaşmasını gerektirmektedir. ; The relationship of Turkey with the European Union started in 1963, as associate member, with the Ankara Agreement, and presently resulted in a Customs Union agreement whichbecame effective at the beginning of 1996. Although Turkey has not yet been accepted as a fiillmember of EU, it has already started to reorganise its political, social, cultural and economic structure with a confidence that its fullmembership is unovoidable and not too far away. In this study after a brief theoritical and conceptual framework, first, foundation and aims of the European Union, its evolution and the relationship of Turkey with the Union were outlined. Then the efforts of the EU to establish "Monetary Union", the conditions of the achievement of the Monetary Union and the Current problems faced were studied. Finally, assuming that Turkey's fullmembershipto the European Union will reasenably be realized in a 10-15 year period, the prospective of Turkey as regard to the European Monetary Union was evoluated. In case of Turkey joins the EU as a fullmember, it will have two alternatives to choose as regard European Monetary Union. One alternative is not to join the European Monetary Union at all. The other alternative is to join the Monetary Union assuming the responsibility of fulfillig the required macroeconomic criteria, or at least approaching to the average values of the Union.

"The subject matter of international economics, then, consists of issues raised by the special problems of economic interaction between sovereign states." (Krugman et al., 2011)Institutional innovation fosters the development of these interactions. Thus, European states, on a social background, try to benefit from the cooperation leverage effect, to turn centuries of conflicts, into an economic asset. Such a construction and its pantagruelian twists and turns, as a fusion of history and empires, not far from Victor Hugo's utopia "the United-State of Europe", demonstrates the incredible ingenuity, national heterogeneities develop to refine the paradigm "Europe".In this thesis, we propose to shed some light on some of these challenges, with regard to the countries which, not half a century ago, marked the fracture of the continent, CEECs. These economies, from transition to developed economy, are an unprecedented case study, to understand international economic challenges. After explaining the general framework, in which this work takes place (Chapter 1), we investigate the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, on the peripheral countries of the euro zone, i.e., EU non-Euro members. In chapter 2, we construct two groups of countries, depending on their exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible). Drawn upon this construction, using monetary, price and output data, we measure the impact of a monetary shock, impulsed by the ECB, on the CEECs. We find that economic integration induces spillover effects, that influence domestic monetary decisions. As expected, pegged economies are more strongly affected, by the monetary policy of the ECB. However, in both groups of countries, we find that spillovers tend to have less impact, on the volatility of our variables (GDP and prices), over the last decade. We explain this, via a more efficient exchange rate channel, to absorb shocks (in flexible exchange) and an increased credibility of domestic monetary institutions.We highlighted that spillovers effects significantly influence ...