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Report for 1914 forms v. 5, no. 4 of the Proceedings of the Academy. ; Mode of access: Internet.

Time‐varying relationships and volatility are two methodological challenges that are particular to the field of time series. In the case of the former, more comprehensive understanding can emerge when we ask under what circumstances relationships may change. The impact of context—such as the political environment, the state of the economy, the international situation, etc.—is often missing in dynamic analyses that estimate time‐invariant parameters. In addition, time‐varying volatility presents a number of challenges including threats to inference if left unchecked. Among time‐varying parameter models, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is a creative and useful approach that deals effectively with over‐time variation in both the mean and variance of time series. The DCC model allows us to study the evolution of relationships over time in a multivariate setting by relaxing model assumptions and offers researchers a chance to reinvigorate understandings that are tested using time series data. We demonstrate the method's potential in the first example by showing how the importance of subjective evaluations of the economy are not constant, but vary considerably over time as predictors of presidential approval. A second example using international dyadic time series data shows that the story of movement and comovement is incomplete without an understanding of the dynamics of their variance as well as their means.

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Original Title -- Original Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- I. Antecedents -- I. The World Crisis -- II. Blunders of British Policy -- III. The Financial Crisis of 1931 -- II. The First National Government -- I. Conditions of its Formation -- II. Its Work -- III. Its Premature Termination -- III. The General Election of 1931 -- II. Its Consequences -- IV. The Second National Government -- I. Conversion and Protection -- II. Trade Revival -- III. The Economic Conference -- IV. Restrictions of Freedom -- V. India and Ireland -- VI. Foreign Policy

In these days of war, with democracy facing the greatest challenge in its history, it would be a sad mistake for anyone to assume an attitude of smug complacency. Such would be disastrous if not literally treasonable. Educators, therefore, along with labor and industry, business and agriculture, need to re-examine and revaluate their contribution to the common welfare of the community. Engaged in a war that threatens the very existence of freedom of thought, scholarship, and teaching, educational leaders have an obligation to see that the best possible use is made of one of democracy's outstanding institutions—a free educational system. If the democratic nations fail to train men in good moral and intellectual habits, fail to produce men of keen insight and critical judgment, fail to give us free minds that can join in our struggle toward a better life for all the people of the world, they will have failed in one of their most important obligations to the human race, no matter how the struggle upon the field of battle may end.

1 Basic Issues in Setting Priorities for Science and Technology Policy -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 The need for government involvement in science and technology and therefore priorities -- 1.3 Goals and variables to be taken into account in science policy -- 1.4 Goals for technology policy -- 1.5 Centralization vs decentralization, comprehensiveness and the specification of priorities -- 1.6 Forecasting and priorities -- 1.7 Critical views about the role of science and technology in economic development -- 1.8 Critical views of government support for science and technology -- Notes and references -- 2 Science Policy Options and Priorities -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Education and the stock of knowledge -- 2.3 Research and development — general issues -- 2.4 Science and industrial policy -- 2.5 Import of science vs its local supply -- 2.6 Science and social policy -- 2.7 Research for defence and big science -- 2.8 Basic vs applied vs developmental science -- 2.9 Concentration and dispersion of R & D effort -- 2.10 Performers of R & D -- 2.11 Service science -- 2.12 Science and international affairs -- 2.13 Some concluding comments -- Notes and references -- 3 T echnology Policy: Options and Priorities -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Links between science and technology and technology sequences -- 3.3 Inventions -- 3.4 Innovations -- 3.5 Diffusion of new technology -- 3.6 Replacement of equipment -- 3.7 Domestic technology transfer -- 3.8 International transfers of technology -- 3.9 Environmental overspills and technology -- 3.10 Employment problems and other social aspects of technology -- 3.11 Observations -- Notes and references -- 4 Science and Technology Policy in Large OECD Economies -- 4.1 Introduction and background data -- 4.2 Articulation and administration of priorities in West Germany -- 4.3 Selected features of German Science and Technology priorities -- 4.4 Articulation and administration of priorities in Japan -- 4.5 Selected features of Japanese science and technology priorities -- 4.6 Articulation and administration of priorities in the United Kingdom -- 4.7 Selected features of United Kingdom science and technology priorities -- 4.8 Articulation and administration of priorities in the United States -- 4.9 Selected features of American science and technology priorities -- 4.10 Some observations -- Notes and references -- 5 Science and Technology Policies of Small OECD Economies -- 5.1 Background -- 5.2 Articulation and administration of priorities in Belgium -- 5.3 Selected features of Belgian science and technology priorities -- 5.4 Articulation and administration of priorities in Canada -- 5.5 Selected features of Canadian science and technology priorities -- 5.6 Articulation and administration of priorities in the Netherlands -- 5.7 Selected features of Dutch science and technology priorities -- 5.8 Articulation and administration of priorities in Sweden -- 5.9 Selected features of Swedish science and technology priorities -- 5.10 Articulation and administration of priorities in Switzerland -- 5.11 Selected features of Swiss science and technology priorities -- 5.12 Some observations -- Notes and references -- 6 Retrospect and Prospect -- 6.1 The increased emphasis on priority assessment in science and technology policy -- 6.2 Macro approaches to taking account of science and technology priorities -- 6.3 Efficiency and science and technology priorities within sectors -- 6.4 Changing science and technology priorities -- 6.5 Why the trend towards co-ordination and explicit priorities in science and technology policy? Fundamental reasons -- 6.6 Problems inherent in the basic trend -- 6.7 Problems inherent in observed government priorities -- 6.8 In conclusion -- Notes and references.

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