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This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

This presentation aims to address the subject of voter participation, particularly how it responds to the legislative redistricting process. Rational voter theory dictates that as cost of engaging in the political process rises, participation falls. One means of raising the costs associated with engaging in elections comes in the form of candidate recognition; if one does not recognize the candidates on the ballot, the costs of being an informed voter rise. In this context, the process of redistricting has the potential to disengage a large number of voters each election cycle, as it places new boundaries on legislative districts and changes the districts in which some people vote. Using regression analysis to test demographic and political data from elections between 1978 and 2004, this study will test the hypothesis that legislative redistricting leads to lower voter turnout rates. Adding another dimension to the academic conversation surrounding political participation, this analysis will point to whether the current system of redistricting does indeed disenfranchise voters, and if so will provide policy recommendations for addressing this issue.

This paper uses several ols models to evaluate the impact of sociological, institutional, & spatial approaches to turnout across the 330 municipalities of Guatemala. It shows that economic development & geographic location (urban vs. rural) have little discernible impact on turnout. Turnout, however, varies positively with the share of registered voters who are female, even if fewer women are registered to vote &, as a result, actually cast ballots. As turnout has fallen through time, the share of registered voters who are literate & the share of the population that is indigenous have become negatively associated with turnout. Larger number of citizens turn out to vote as municipal size decreases & as the ratio of registered voters to voting stations falls. That these factors are significant suggests that, even in a research design that privileges socioeconomic variation, spatial-institutional differences help explain voter turnout rates. 5 Tables, 1 Figure, 1 Appendix, 35 References. [Copyright 2003 Elsevier Ltd.]

Elections to regional assemblies have become increasingly important as the power and responsibilities of regional governments have increased. Yet, few studies have attempted to explain the considerable variation in turnout in regional elections from one region to another. This article conducts a cross-sectional examination of voter participation in regional elections across nine multi-level OECD states between 2003 and 2006. It contends that standard models of voter turnout in national elections are insufficient to explain variation in turnout in regional elections and argues for the use of independent variables tailored to capture variation across regional communities and regional political institutions. Our findings suggest that variations in the strength of political autonomy and the strength of attachment to the region among the electorate have a strong and positive impact on the level of turnout in regional elections. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

Objective. The goal of this article is to test between two competing theories (mobilization vs. destabilization) about the impact of gentrification on political participation.Methods. Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, Census data from 1990 and 2000, and a voter file for the City of Atlanta, we estimate a multilevel model of voter turnout.Results. Controlling for relevant individual and contextual factors, we find that gentrification decreases turnout among longstanding residents.Conclusions. Our findings provide support for the destabilization hypothesis and suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to soften the negative consequences of gentrification.

Objective: The goal of this article is to test between two competing theories (mobilization vs. destabilization) about the impact of gentrification on political participation. Methods: Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, Census data from 1990 and 2000, and a voter file for the City of Atlanta, we estimate a multilevel model of voter turnout. Results: Controlling for relevant individual and contextual factors, we find that gentrification decreases turnout among longstanding residents. Conclusions: Our findings provide support for the destabilization hypothesis and suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to soften the negative consequences of gentrification. Tables, Figures, 1, References. Adapted from the source document.

This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks increase voter turnout. Prior to the 1998 and 2002 elections, randomized field experiments were conducted in which more than 1 million subjects were randomly assigned to treatment and control conditions. The results indicate that this type of phone calling campaign is ineffective.

We use Italian municipality data on education and voter participation in national elections to estimate the effect of schooling on voter turnout. By adopting a fixed effect instrumental variable identification strategy, we find that education reduces voter turnout, more so in municipalities with higher income, lower social capital, which experienced political misconduct in the past and have low institutional quality. Analysis with individual data confirms these results. We discuss several mechanisms to rationalize our findings ranging from the opportunity cost of time to disaffection and civic protest.

One of the most consistent findings in studies of electoral behaviour is that individuals with higher education have a greater propensity to vote. The nature of this relationship is much debated, with US studies generally finding evidence of a causal relationship, while European studies generally reporting no causal effect. To assess whether the US is an exception we rely on an international dataset incorporating 38 countries, the ISSP (International Social Survey Programme) from 1985 to 2010. Both instrumental variable and multi-level modelling approaches reveal that the US is an outlier regarding the relationship between education and voter turnout. Moreover country-specific institutional and economic factors do not explain the heterogeneity in the relationship of interest. Alternatively, we show that disenfranchisement laws in the U.S. mediates the effect of education on voter turnout, such that the education gradient in voting is greater in U.S. States with the harshest disenfranchisement legislature. As such, the observed relationship between education and voting is partly driven by the effect of education on crime.

We examine whether compulsory voting influences habit-formation in voting. In Austria, some states temporarily introduced compulsory voting in national elections. We exploit border municipalities across two states that differ in compulsory voting legislation using a difference-in-differences and a difference-in-discontinuity approach. We investigate the long-term effects of compulsory voting on voter turnout, invalid votes and vote shares for left-wing and right-wing parties. The results show that compulsory voting increased voter turnout by 3.4 percentage points. When compulsory voting was abolished, voter turnout, however, returned to the pre-compulsory voting level. The results also do not suggest that compulsory voting influenced invalid votes and vote shares of left-wing and right-wing parties asymmetrically. We conclude that compulsory voting was not habit-forming.

This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks increase voter turnout. Prior to the 1998 & 2002 elections, randomized field experiments were conducted in which more than 1 million subjects were randomly assigned to treatment & control conditions. The results indicate that this type of phone calling campaign is ineffective. 3 Tables, 1 Appendix, 19 References. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright 2005 The American Academy of Political and Social Science.]