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What are the challenges and opportunities facing emerging powers in an increasingly complex international system? While existing studies on emerging powers have looked at their potential impact on the international order, fewer studies have focused on the challenges and opportunities that can negatively or positively impact the progress of emerging powers. This study examines the experiences of Türkiye as an emerging power since the turn of the new millennium and uses it to illustrate the potential challenges and opportunities. The authors adopt five pillars which include: 1) domestic political and international ideological pillars; 2) geopolitical pillars; 3) success in international broadcasting; 4) economic pillars; and 5) institutional pillars (regionalism and international cooperation) to assess how emerging powers navigate the complexities that come with such status. Using a case study approach, the authors argue that emerging powers are likely to remain as "emerging" if they do not capitalize on their strengths and/or reduce the negative effectes of threats that come with the being an emerging power. The findings of the study aim to inform policy and open a new front to assess and understand emerging powers.

AbstractThis paper examines the usefulness of shadow rates to measure the monetary policy stance by comparing them to the official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation‐targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the United States, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland) over the period from the early 1990s to December 2021. Shadow rates estimated from a dynamic factor model are shown to suggest a much looser policy stance than either the official policy rates or those implied by the Taylor rules, and generally to provide a more accurate picture of the monetary policy stance during both ZLB and non‐ZLB periods, since they reflect the full range of unconventional policy measures used by central banks. Furthermore, generalised impulse response analysis based on three alternative vector autoregression (VAR) models indicates that monetary shocks based on the shadow rates are more informative than those related to the official policy rates or to two‐ and three‐factor shadow rates, especially during the Global Financial Crisis and the recent COVID‐19 pandemic, when unconventional measures have been adopted. Finally, unconventional policy shocks seem to have less persistent effects on the economy in countries, which have adopted an inflation‐targeting regime.