Suchergebnisse

This report covers basic descriptions and characteristics of the equine sector, including statistics on number of horses, horse farms, employment, current structure and recent dynamics in the horse sector in Finland, Latvia and Sweden and also the mobility (e.g. trade, import, export and tourism) within the Central Baltic Region. The information was gathered through literature reviews, round table discussions and interviews with equine organisations and stakeholders, and through visits to farms with equine business activities in each of the three countries. Horses in Finland, Latvia and Sweden At the moment the horse population in Finland is growing steadily. In 2010 there were about 75 000 horses. Most of these are warm-blooded trotting horses, but riding horses are becoming increasingly popular as riding as a hobby increases in popularity. Approximately 35 000 people own at least one horse and co-ownership is becoming a common way of owning a horse with relatively small costs and responsibilities, especially among trotting sports. There are approximately 16 000 stables, of which over 3 000 are business orientated. These numbers are still only estimates, because Finland is lacking a comprehensive register of stables and stable enterprises. Although statistical data on the number of horses, breeds, herds, stables etc. are being collected and are available in Latvia, there is still a lack of statistical data that characterise the sector in relation to employment, provide an idea of the financial results, and characterise horse uses for tourism or therapy purposes. For example, there are no data on the number of people working with horses. This is perhaps related to the perception of the sector as being located within the context of horse breeding. Statistical data show that the number of horses in Latvia in general has decreased, from 15 250 in 2005 to 11 476 in 2012, and the current trends indicate that it could decrease even more. The number of livestock has decreased correspondingly, from 9814 in 2005 to 5577 in 2012. More than 84% of all farms have 1 to 5 horses, and only a few farms have more than 100 horses. The number of horses in Sweden decreased in the early 1920s from about 700 000 to about 70 000 in the 1970s. During the past 30 years the number of horses has increased tremendously, but the trend seems to be stagnated the last few years. Today there are approximately 362 700 horses and about 20% of all horses in Sweden are within business establishments. The number of horses per 1 000 habitants is 39 for the whole country and Sweden is now estimated to have the second highest density of horses per capita in Europe. There are approximately 77 800 establishments involving horses in Sweden. The equine businesses have on average 4.7 horses and provide full-time or part-time work for a total of 25 000 people. About two-thirds of those working with horses are women. Horse related legislation in Finland, Latvia and Sweden Environmental legislation is one of the broadest judicial systems in Finland. It consists of a number of different laws and regulations, relating to waste disposal, water protection, environmental protection, land use and construction. After EU membership, environmental legislation in Finland was harmonised with EC (European Community) legislation, especially in the case of environmental protection and conservation. The main environmental legislation concerning the horse sector in Finland consists of following laws, directives and regulations: 1) Environmental protection law and regulation, 2) Waste law and regulation, 3) EU waste incineration directive, 4) By-product regulation, 5) Nitrate regulation, 6) Law concerning dead animals in remote areas, 7) The law on processing household water in remote areas, 8) Health protection law and regulation, 9) Fertilizer law, 10) Conservation law, 11) Land use and construction law and 12) Law about neighbourliness. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Agriculture, the policy of the horse breeding sector in Latvia is based on: a) Horse breeding is performed according to the targets stated in the breeding programme, which are based on production of high quality animals, preservation and improvement of the genotype through purposeful use of the breeding stock and improvement of horse monitoring, b) The importance of the development of horses and equestrian sports within the framework of the common agricultural policy is emphasised in order to encourage development of the rural environment, and c) Horse breeding is compliant with welfare regulations. National and European Union aid for the development of the agricultural sector is allocated to horse breeding too. Most of it consists of aid for breeding measures in the equine sector. Currently there are no specific regulations in Latvia which define requirements for keeping horses. Horse breeding is not distinguished separately within the field of animal welfare in Latvia and therefore the main document is the Animal Protection Law. Its norms are general, while Cabinet Regulation No 959 ´Welfare Requirements for the Keeping and Training of Sport, Work and Exhibition Animals and Use Thereof in Competitions, Work or Exhibitions´ does not specify actions with horses and can easily be interpreted in different ways. There is no measurable evaluation system to assess fulfilment of the requirements in the Cabinet Regulations. The law stipulates the actions and activities which may be undertaken with an animal and those which are strictly forbidden and lists the institutions that should supervise compliance with the law and the welfare requirements. Latvia lacks the basis of normative documents that would specifically regulate personal safety in the horse breeding sector and in businesses related to horse use. Therefore the common normative basis has to be considered, the foundation of which is the ´Labour Protection Law´. The foundation of Swedish environmental legislation is the Swedish Environmental Code. The purpose of the Swedish Environmental Code is to promote sustainable development which will assure a healthy and sound environment for present and future generations. The Code is a legislative framework based on a number of fundamental principles permeating international environmental protection and resource management. These include the "precautionary" principle, the "polluter pays" principle, the "product choice" principle and principles governing resource management, natural cycles and appropriate siting of industrial (and other) operations and remedial measures. The main environmental legislation in Sweden concerning the horse sector consists of the following laws, directives, ordinances and regulations: 1) Environmental Code, 2) Ordinance concerning environmentally hazardous activities and the protection of public health, 3) Ordinance on environmental consideration in agriculture, 4) Nitrate directive, 5) Water directive, 6) Swedish guidance on storage and spreading of manure, 7) Regulation on environmental consideration in agriculture as regards plant nutrients, 8) Ordinance on inspection and enforcement according to the Environmental Code, 9) Ordinance on self-inspection by operators, 10) Ordinance on animal by-products, 11) Ordinance on fees for examination and supervision under the Environmental Code and the fees ordinance, 12) Regulations on the protection of the environment, in particular the soil, when sewage sludge is used in agriculture, 13) Regulations on consideration for natural and cultural values in agriculture, 14) Ordinance on environmental penalty charge, 15) The Planning and Building Ordinance, 16) The Land Code. In Sweden the occupational safety and health issues in general are regulated in the Work Environmental Act (SFS 1977:1160), in the Work Environmental Ordinance (SFS 1977:1166) and in several provisions. There is no specific legislation regarding occupational health and safety in the horse sector. However, these issues are included in the provision Working with animals (SFS 2008:17). Some results of the round table discussions in Finland, Latvia and Sweden In general, the participants in round table discussions in Finland were hoping for concrete solutions and examples of low-cost and easy help for everyday businesses. Entrepreneurs with lower profitability need more support, but the challenge is to get them involved in education or advisory events. The riding sector at least is much divided, with some businesses having as many customers as they can serve, and others who are constantly on the edge of bankruptcy. To help those small and medium-sized enterprises that need help the most, the project should produce advice that can immediately be used in practice, and concrete results and solutions. The problem with small and medium-sized businesses is the lack of capital and the related impossibility of investing large amounts of money in new technologies or large-scale facilities. In this sector the profitability and competitiveness are often low, but small changes in operations could improve these. Many business owners are still lacking business skills and they may not see what they could use as a competitive advantage. The current understanding of the equine sector in Latvia has to be reconsidered or a better understanding has to be created. Therefore the policy guidelines and the aid to the sector will have to be reviewed. For example, according to the view of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Latvia, the equine sector only concerns breeding and accordingly state aid is predominantly provided for this purpose. The Latvian Horse Breeding Association also considers breeding to be its priority, but several representatives of the tourism industry expressed the opinion that horse breeding should be reconsidered, paying special attention to the Latvian horse breed, which could be interesting for foreign and local tourists as a special feature of Latvia. Latvian breed horses possess a nature and traits that make them suitable for tourism and also therapeutic riding purposes. The equine sector in Latvia in general lacks a clear direction for orientation, what should be bred, what might be a profitable product or an exportable product. Since this is not clear on a national scale, it is difficult to discuss aid instruments. The people working in the sector often lack skills in project preparation, they do not have time to learn and study it all, and therefore it is difficult to apply for and to receive the aid. In order to solve this, it is usual practice to involve companies that prepare the project application. Other entrepreneurs try to master these skills themselves. The horse sector in Sweden is now on a downward trend, pointing out the decreased number of served mares. The horse businesses need to streamline their business ideas, look for better locations (closer to customers) and the activities offered must be more adapted to customer needs and demands, such as different types of activities and livery stables with more specialist services or diversified food production. In general, horse stables will have a lot of opportunities in the sector if they can keep up with the changes in the sector. The interest in Sweden regarding keeping horses and attending riding sports was perceived to be decreasing and it was thought that there is a system change underway. The way to keep horses in the future may not be the same as it used to be. People are not willing to sacrifice time and efforts to keep on with horses any more, people are getting older and there is limited recruitment of young people into the sector. The horse activities mainly take place in urban and periurban areas.

The generational goal, which sets the direction for Sweden's environmental policy, was reformulated and decided upon in 2010 by the Riksdag. The overall goal of Swedish environmental policy is to hand over to the next generation a society in which the major environmental problems in Sweden have been solved, without increasing environmental and health problems outside Sweden's borders. There are seven bullet points linked to the generational goal. The seventh emphasises that solving the environmental problems we face are to be achieved within one generation, ensuring that: Patterns of consumption of goods and services cause the least possible problems for the environment and human health. The changes from the previous generational goal imply among other things that environmental policy in Sweden must not lead to increased environmental and health problems outside of Sweden. This implies that we have to develop the possibility of following up Sweden's environmental impact in other countries. The environmental impact that Sweden causes in other countries is due among other things to the importing of products. It is therefore necessary to try to quantify the total environmental impact that the manufacturing of the imported products causes in order to gain an understanding of the environmental impact abroad. The purpose of this project is primarily to develop indicators for emissions of greenhouse gases and other emissions to air caused by Swedish consumption, in order to follow the negative environmental impact in other countries. The indicators are generally aimed at following the trend in emissions over time, not at examining exact emission levels. The purpose is also to further develop methods to follow the emissions of chemical substances caused by Swedish consumption. The idea here is to try out a data source for point sources of discharge of chemical substances, apply an input-output analysis to them and weigh together the substances to obtain potential toxicity, by life cycle assessment (LCA) methods. This is a first step and the method needs to be further developed before an indicator can be presented. The results of the project are presented in the following proposals for indicators to follow up the generational goal and its seventh bullet point: Climate related emissions:  Emissions of greenhouse gases abroad and in Sweden, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents caused by Swedish consumption, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of greenhouse gases per person abroad and in Sweden caused by Swedish consumption, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of greenhouse gases caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, indexed with the year 2000 = 100, time series 2000-2008 Other emissions to air:  Emissions of nitrogen oxides caused by Swedish consumption, abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of sulphur dioxide caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of ammonia caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008 An example of how the indicators can be presented together with relevant issues is available in the report in Annex 5. Emissions of greenhouse gases caused by Swedish consumption, in Sweden and abroad The indicator for greenhouse gases emissions caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden is presented below. Greenhouse gases are measured in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, which is a weighted total of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (laughing gas) due to their impact on the greenhouse gas effect. The indicator shows the total greenhouse gas emissions caused by Swedish consumption, consisting of emissions in Sweden and emissions abroad. The total emissions caused by Swedish consumption increased from 90 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents in 2000 to 98 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents in 2008. This implies an increase of 9 percent during the period. The emissions abroad have increased from 44 million tonnes to 58 million tonnes, implying an increase of 30 percent between 2000 and 2008. In comparison, domestic emissions caused by Swedish consumption decreased from 46 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes during the same period, implying a decrease of about 13 percent. The exact levels depend on which data are available and model assumptions, and may vary between studies. The increase shown by the indicator of the total emissions is caused by an increase in emissions abroad and can be explained in the model by increased consumption met by increasing imports. The fact that the imports have increased by approximately 40 percent, in fixed prices, between 2000 and 2008, supports that explanation. An increase can also be the result if the composition of consumption changes, i.e. if other types of products are imported, product types that cause higher emissions, or if the production of imported goods takes place where higher emissions are caused in producing the same type of goods. Nearly half of the increase can be explained by the population growth during the period. To find out more about the driving forces behind the increased emissions, supplementary studies must be performed, which have not been carried out within this project. The indicator consists of two parts, emissions in Sweden and emissions abroad, both caused by Swedish consumption. The underlying data source for the emissions in Sweden is the official statistics on emissions reported to UNFCCC, the UN's climate change convention. These emissions are broken down by industry and processed by Environmental Accounts at Statistics Sweden and used in an environmentally extended input-output analysis (Naturvårdsverket, 2010d). The main difference between the domestic emissions caused by Swedish consumption and the domestic emissions reported to UNFCCC is that emissions caused in producing goods for export are not a part of the emissions caused by consumption. Emissions due to imported goods that are produced in other countries are estimated according to a model. The model for carbon dioxide emissions is based on how much - in economic terms - is imported from other countries (data from Statistics Sweden), emissions of carbon dioxide reported to Eurostat for EU countries and each country's emissions intensity in relation to GDP (data from World Resources Institute) for countries outside the EU. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide in other countries are calculated as if they occurred in Sweden. Use of chemicals and emissions of chemical substances The project included further development of methods for a future indicator of the area of chemicals from a perspective of consumption. In previous work, data from the products register at the Swedish Chemicals Agency have been used to create indicators for use of chemicals in Sweden for this purpose. In this project the options for developing other indicators as a complement are investigated, where an important prerequisite is data availability abroad. The focus was to develop the idea which was presented in the background synthesis report (Naturvårdsverket, 2010d). The idea is to try to use the database EPRTR1 which contains national emissions of chemical substances from industrial point sources, reported to the EU. Input-output analyses could be applied to these data, to obtain emissions caused by final demand. The emitted chemical substances were weighted using LCA methods to enable potential toxicity to be presented for aquatic ecotoxicity and human toxicity. The results which are presented in the report show contribution to potential toxicity caused by final demand in Sweden in 2008, based on reported emissions in E-PRTR. Substances that contributed most to potential toxicity could also be distinguished. In the study using E-PRTR as a data source, several limitations should be mentioned which contribute to the fact that no ready-to-use indicator for chemical substances is presented in the report. The emissions are presented for the whole of final demand including exports. Of this followed that the large export products (basic metals, pulp and paper) contributed heavily to the results. The analysis was restricted to domestic emissions, which means that no calculations on the contribution to potential toxicity for imported goods were performed. Another restriction worth noting is that the contents of the data source are limited to those substances that are reportable and that the result depends on which substances are included in the calculation model that is used when the potential toxicity is determined. Continued work The work to produce indicators for follow up of the global environmental impact caused by consumption has made some progress through this project. During the project many development areas for methods and data sources have been identified. No development projects have been decided upon, and a decision on estimation of costs must be evaluated first. For climate related emissions there are the following suggestions for development:  Add emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases by industry to the environmentally extended input-output analyses.  Develop emission intensities based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank to obtain more detailed and updated intensities than those published by World Resources Institute (WRI).  Study to what extent the increased levels of greenhouse gas emissions are due to higher imports or higher emissions intensities.  Study which countries Sweden imports from, and analyse if this has changed over time and has had any impact on emission levels.  Further enhance the allocation of emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to the production of food products, so that meat can be separately studied and to enhance the calculation of emissions in other countries. For emissions to air there are the following suggestions for development:  Use Eurostat data for the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia to obtain a better understanding of emissions in other countries. The results in this report are based on the "as if" assumption.  Study the following emissions to air in a consumption perspective: carbon dioxide, volatile aromatic compounds and particulates, to obtain a better understanding about how these can be followed in other countries. For the area of chemicals, there is no indicator ready to use. A possible way forward is to develop an indicator based on E-PRTR and relate it to other sources of emissions. The following indicates development areas in order to connect emissions of chemical substances to consumption:  Allocate the emissions from industrial point sources reported to E-PRTR to the components of final demand so that the emissions linked to exports can be excluded in further analyses.  Try to obtain an understanding of the size of the total industrial emissions that are covered through E-PRTR (the database EU countries report their national PRTR data to)  Estimate emissions in other countries, related to Sweden's imports, by using available data sources (available for the EU and several other countries).  Quantify and estimate the potential toxicity from diffuse emissions from the use of chemical products and from goods, for comparison with the potential toxicity from those emissions that are reported in E-PRTR.

In this dissertation I present a new analytical approach to the study of women's employment. Using data on 18 OECD countries from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP), I model cross-national variation in "the gap" between women's orientations toward work and family and their employment trajectories over the life course. The existence of a gap at the individual level indicates that a woman followed an employment trajectory that is inconsistent with her work-family orientations--for example, a woman who believes that women should stay at home with young children but who, in fact, worked when her own children were young.The orientations-employment gap has several advantages as an object of study compared to simply modeling women's employment behavior. First, the existence of a gap suggests the presence of social structural factors that operate independently of an individual's work-family orientations and that drive a wedge between their orientations and actual employment behavior. Second, because the gap takes into account women's work-family orientations, it is possible to distinguish between social policies that support women's choice to work versus policies that are commodifying in their effects. The distinction between policies that support women's choice to work and policies that commodify women is important, because work relationships are potentially oppressive, and policies that promote women's freedom to opt out of work may enhance women's leverage, individually and collectively, in the market.Third, the orientations-employment gap uses women's own psychological orientations as a standard for comparison in studying mothers' employment rather than men's occupational outcomes. Because women still shoulder a disproportionate burden of homemaking and childcare responsibilities and suffer employer discrimination based on gender and family status, children may carry significant costs for their mothers, which are reflected in the "gender gap" between women's and men's occupational outcomes (see, e.g., Budig and England 2001 and Goldin 1990). However, it is also important to acknowledge the benefits that accrue to individual mothers (and fathers) and the significance of motherhood as a means of self-actualization. Divergent expectations regarding the costs and benefits of childrearing, as well as the sometimes class-specific ways in which motherhood undergirds adult identity, are among a larger number of factors that produce women's distinct orientations regarding work and family (Gerson 1985; McMahon 1995). Finally, in modeling the orientations-employment gap, it is possible to examine how women's work-family orientations moderate the effects of social policies. In the first chapter I examine whether the effects of childcare-related provisions, labor market conditions, and other factors on mothers' employment trajectories are moderated by their work-family orientations. I distinguish among women with "domestic" and "careerist" orientations, who appear to prioritize homemaking and a career respectively, and a third group of women with "adaptive" orientations, who believe that mothers should reduce their labor force involvement or withdraw from the labor force entirely when their children are young. While it is important to recognize that women's orientations toward work and family change in response to life course events and differences across countries in labor market conditions, women's work-family orientations are not simply a rationalization of the current structure of opportunities and constraints in the environment, as is apparent from the large orientations-employment gaps in many countries. In the main set of analyses in this chapter, I treat mothers' work-family orientations as fixed.I find that the effects of childcare-related provisions and characteristics of the labor market in different countries are highly contingent on mothers' work-family orientations and that mothers generally strive to minimize disagreement between their orientations and actual behavior. For example, my data suggests that mothers pursue distinct compensatory strategies in adapting to high childcare costs: increasing their labor force involvement or reducing their work hours, thus replacing some or all of a childcare worker's labor with their own. But which strategy a woman adopts depends on her work-family orientations. Mothers with careerist orientations are most likely to increase their labor force involvement in response to high childcare costs, while domestic mothers are more likely to pursue the opposite strategy. Furthermore, from my analysis it appears that mothers with domestic orientations use maternity and childcare leave primarily as a means of extending their absence from the labor force. It is among adaptive mothers that maternity leave has the positive effect on employment usually noted in the literature. Even though mothers exhibit a remarkable degree of agency in formulating strategies for the reconciliation of work and family responsibilities, family policy regimes in different countries still have important implications for women's emancipation. In the second chapter I examine variation in the size of the orientations-employment gap between and within countries as a means to assess the emancipatory potential of family policies, broadly defined, in the extent to which they support mothers' access to paid work (Orloff 1993) and decommodification (Esping-Andersen 1990). Despite the importance of decommodification/ commodification as a dimension of variation to earlier welfare state scholarship, the relationship between welfare states, especially as implementers of family policy, and women's access to paid work has received far greater attention in feminist revisions of welfare state scholarship. But the extent to which welfare states support women's freedom to opt out of work--that is, their decommodification--is an equally important dimension of welfare state variation because of the link between this criterion and women's leverage in the market (Esping-Andersen 1990) and the significance of motherhood to some women as a means of self-actualization (McMahon 1995). The typology of family policy regimes suggested by the results from my second dissertation chapter differs in several important respects from the broad picture offered by previous research. First, I find evidence of tension between the very active involvement of the state in supporting (careerist) women's choice to work in the Scandinavian countries and women's decommodification, as illustrated by the large numbers of domestic and adaptive women with young children who are employed in these countries. While my results call into question Esping-Andersen's (1990) characterization of the Scandinavian countries as highly decommodifying and claims that the package of childcare-related benefits and services available to mothers and fathers in these countries facilitates parental choice (Leira 2002b), my results are consistent with arguments made by several scholars (see, e.g., Andersen 2008 and Graafland 2000) that the viability of the large public social service sector in the Scandinavian countries rests on "reproduction going public" (Hernes 1987). As suggested by the large gaps between domestic and adaptive women's work-family orientations and employment behavior, however, the Scandinavian countries have ensured women's high levels of labor force involvement not only by supporting work-centered women's full-time employment, but by inducing home-centered and adaptive women to work when their children are young. I hypothesize that features of public policy such as individual taxation systems in which the (usually male) breadwinner's earnings are taxed at a higher rate than those of the second earner (Sainsbury 1999) and work-related conditions that are attached to the receipt of unemployment insurance and social assistance (Andersen 2010) serve as incentives for mothers to enter the labor market.While the Scandinavian countries are characterized by both their strong support for (careerist) women's choice to work and domestic and adaptive mothers' high levels of labor force involvement, only the latter feature distinguishes the Scandinavian countries from the other countries. Thus, my results suggest that the Scandinavian approach to family policy represents only one route through which countries may promote women's access to paid work. A second major approach to supporting women's employment can be identified in Britain and the United States, where there is greater emphasis on demand side measures and reliance on the private sector and the family in the provision of child care (Michel 1999; O'Connor, Orloff, and Shaver 1999). However, as suggested by my results, these countries are less effective at supporting the labor force participation of mothers who have lower earning power and cannot afford center child care or the services of a nanny. Even in many countries whose family policies are designed around a "male breadwinner" family model (Lewis 1992), including Austria and Germany in Continental Europe, the gap between careerist women's work-family orientations and employment trajectories is relatively small. However, while countries adopt distinct strategies in supporting women's choice to work, each strategy carries unique costs. The very active role of the state in the provision of welfare in the Scandinavian countries rests on the commodification of women, while greater reliance on the private sector and the family in the provision of child care in Britain and the United States have resulted in multi-tiered systems in which the mode of child care used by mothers and the availability of high-quality child care are determined by class. The relatively small gaps between careerist women's work-family orientations and employment trajectories in some Continental European countries such as Austria and Germany may not necessarily point to a distinct strategy for promoting women's access to paid work, but rather, factors that are held in common among most countries, including principles regarding equal pay and equal treatment in employment that are embodied in European Union equality law and improved access to modern and more effective methods of contraception such as the pill.In the third chapter I examine the influence of a wide range of "person-level" factors such as work orientations, human capital characteristics, and family background factors on American women's employment trajectories using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. The more detailed information on women's work histories in this data set enables me to more closely examine the contours of women's labor market careers and to identify certain critical junctures at which women tend to diverge from one another in their work hours. Specifically, the first critical juncture in women's labor market careers occurs in the period following the completion of (or a pause in) schooling and preceding childbirth, during which time most women embark on a male-type employment pattern of continuous full-time employment ("careerist" and "steady withdrawal" women) or work part-time ("adaptive" and "domestic" women). The caretaking responsibilities and financial demands that accompany the birth of the first child constitutes the second critical juncture in women's lives and cause further branching in women's work histories. An important question that I ask is whether the same factors explain divergences in women's employment in the period following the completion of schooling and after childbirth. Interestingly, two important components of women's work orientations (future plans and gender role attitudes) appear to be far more important in explaining divergences in behavior at the first critical juncture than after childbirth.

Poco se habla en el extranjero de las grietas persistentes del dinamismo económico chileno, que hasta hace poco había beneficiado de títulos imaginativos como milagro, jaguares y otras apelaciones quizá más serias –aunque no tanto- tales como la de pertenecer al club de los países ricos de la OCDE. Muchas de estas apelaciones son anecdóticas, y harán sonreír a más de un país de la región que conocieron fenómenos similares –el milagro de los generales brasileños en los 70, la década argentina de los 90- y que luego vieron estas ilusiones desvanecerse de forma precipitada. La verdad es que la sociedad chilena ha vivido durante muchos años en una autocomplacencia relativa al modelo heredado del régimen Pinochet y perpetuado en sus fundamentos por las coaliciones de centro-izquierda de la Concertación. El modelo chileno fue caracterizado –y celebrado- por una estabilidad y crecimiento casi constantes de los indicadores sociales y de riqueza, tales como el PIB, la inflación, el nivel de deuda y la reducción drástica de las tasas de pobreza extrema. La expansión de las políticas sociales de un Estado que había sido jibarizado por los Chicago Boys a principios de los ochenta, permitió mejorar las condiciones de vida de los quintiles más necesitados de una población que a la salida de la dictadura contaba con 40% de pobres. Quizá el caso más emblemático de la acción social de los gobiernos de centro-izquierda, en la medida en que se refería a la integridad del ser humano, fue la instauración del plan AUGE (Salud) que instauró una cobertura médica obligatoria y gratuita de un pool de 300 enfermedades graves, algo inédito y en franca oposición a los fundamentales del modelo de la dictadura. La multiplicación de programas de acceso a la vivienda, el mejoramiento de la cobertura de prestaciones sociales varias y la instauración de programas de pensiones mínimas para los sectores más desfavorecidos de la población, tales como indigentes y amas de casa, fueron las ultimas adiciones de un sistema que se quería cada vez más alejado de la ortodoxia económica neo- monetarista y que velaba porque el Estado conservase una capacidad de intervención en el desarrollo del modelo capitalista local. Este panorama extremadamente favorable del país en relación a sus vecinos ha permitido a los chilenos acariciar un desarrollo económico estadístico, pronosticado para el 2018: por ese entonces, el país habrá de alcanzar el nivel de riqueza per cápita de los países mediterráneos de la UE. Esta realidad de las cifras económicas ha contribuido a la propagación de una euforia colectiva que ha sido sabiamente orquestada por medios escritos y electrónicos vinculados a los círculos políticos y económicos que se beneficiaron en estos últimos treinta años de la bonanzaaquí mencionada. La instauración de un servicio de promoción de Chile en el extranjero, en ciudades emblemáticas como Buenos Aires, Nueva York y Paris y la reorganización anunciada del servicio diplomático, postergada por más de dos décadas, se han inscrito en esta dinámica expansiva. El último episodio de esta tirada de buenas nuevas fue el rescate de los 33 mineros, con un presidente itinerante por el mundo en condiciones insuperables.Esta historia oficial repetida a voces y celebrada en el extranjero no nos permite, sin embargo, entender la abrupta caída de popularidad y legitimidad de la clase política en su conjunto, ni la hipermovilización de actores sociales en todos los frentes en el transcurso de este último año –ecologistas, estudiantes, profesores y sindicatos de trabajadores- en un país que se había caracterizado históricamente por su afección al orden, y en estas últimas décadas, por un consenso en torno a la autoridad incontestada de las instituciones. Una contra-historia de movilizaciones sociales de este periodo que acabamos de describir y su rol en la denuncia de las grietas profundas del sistema de desarrollo chileno debería entonces arrojar luces sobre los vicios estructurales que han minado la gobernabilidad de la presidencia de Sebastián Piñera. Lo que comenzó como una manifestación más de la federación de estudiantes universitarios públicos (CONFECH) se propagó al conjunto de los actores de la enseñanza superior, para luego llegar a los secundarios, profesorado, y asociaciones de padres. Este conjunto heteróclito de actores denunció un secreto a voces, es decir, la profunda injusticia del sistema educativo chileno, con altos costos económicos y un acceso muy asimétrico a la educación de calidad. A diferencia de los años 1960, en los cuales la educación superior chilena era exigente en sus estándares pero limitada en su llegada al conjunto de la sociedad, la liberalización de la educación superior iniciada por José Piñera, ministro de educación de Pinochet y hermano ofuscado del presidente actual, multiplicó varias veces la oferta educativa. Ésta se convirtió en un negocio lucrativo y generó una serie de instituciones catalogadas de universidades de pizarrón, en las cuales proliferaron carreras con y sin acreditación, sin control de los efectivos y con una pobre adecuación de los currículos académicos a las necesidades sociales y económicas del mercado. El resultado de treinta años de aplicación de este modelo es un acceso a la educación para un segmento importante de la población que vio cumplido su sueño de promoción por el cartón, pero que no accedió por ello a una promoción social real basada en condiciones laborales mejoradas y en un estatuto social superior al de partida. Es así como proliferaron ingenieros comerciales, periodistas y abogados, provenientes de nuevas clases medias endeudadas por el extenso –y controvertido- sistema de crédito al consumo chileno (2), que se vieron en la imposibilidad de obtener salarios acordes con su profesión, y que vinieron a engrosar las filas de los profesionales mal pagados o trabajando en labores indirectamente o simplemente no relacionadas a su profesión. La revocación pura y simple de las bases del modelo ha sido el caballo de batalla de esta coalición heterogénea y sin precedentes de actores, que exige una educación universitaria pública, gratuita y de calidad. Lejos de los debates teóricos respecto al costo efectivo de la educación –incluso las sociedades escandinavas hacen pagar ésta indirectamente a través de una canasta impositiva más amplia- las demandas tuvieron éxito y apoyo ciudadano masivo en la medida en que apelaban al sentido común. Estas mostraron la incapacidad de los gobiernos sucesivos de quebrar con el molde ideológico que imposibilitaba una mayor conciencia de las demandas de la ciudadanía y, en el ámbito económico, una redistribución del ingreso indispensable para las ambiciones de desarrollo chilenas. El caso de la educación ha sido un avatar más de otras demandas ciudadanas tales como el medio ambiente, que fue sacrificado de manera metódica por el régimen Pinochet, y que constituye quizá uno de los aspectos menos conocidos en el extranjero de la herencia autoritaria. El desarrollo urbano caótico de los ochenta y noventa, la deforestación del bosque nativo en las regiones más australes del país y la ausencia de estándares internacionales de contaminación fueron así partes constitutivas de la realidad con la cual debieron cohabitar los ciudadanos del país durante décadas. Esta situación llegó sin embargo a un punto de quiebre con la oposición a grandes proyectos hidroeléctricos (HydroAysén), pero también con la multiplicación de demandas ciudadanas en relación a la gestión de los espacios públicos en Santiago y regiones. Otro capítulo importante de este despertar ciudadano ha sido la cuestión del crédito al consumo, que ha constituido un instrumento de desarrollo particularmente perverso, en la medida en que penalizó a los consumidores limitando las atribuciones de los entes reguladores y multiplicando las condiciones abusivas en dirección de los clientes de las mayores casas comerciales del país. Independientemente del tema del que hablemos, lo importante de estas movilizaciones ha sido el vehicular un temario ya no de país en aras al desarrollo, pero el de una sociedad desarrollada y empoderada. El acceso del país a la OCDE en enero del 2010 generó, en este sentido, un nuevo nivel de exigencia al comparar el país con los estándares de este grupo selecto de países. El gobierno actual ciertamente no es el único responsable de esta acumulación de frustraciones a nivel de la ciudadanía – la Concertación ha sido tanto o más culpable- pero ha sido incompetente en su incapacidad para apreciar los condicionantes de esta crisis. Esto se ha debido en gran parte a la composición de los equipos políticos y técnicos, muchos de ellos con intereses creados en los sectores afectados por estas controversias, pero asimismo a una matriz ideológica heredada de think tanks comprometidos con la herencia autoritaria y en cuya composición han participado antiguos funcionarios del régimen Pinochet. La participación activa del centro Libertad y Desarrollo ha sido en este sentido clave a la hora de evaluar y proponer soluciones a estas inquietudes ciudadanas, pero estas han sido saldadas por un fracaso rotundo y el alejamiento progresivo de sus representantes en el gobierno. Sebastián Piñera ha sido ciertamente responsable de la composición de sus equipos, así como de perpetuar esta visión maniqueista entre Estado y Mercado. Pero lo ha sido menos de llevar una coalición de partidos de derechas desorganizada e ideológicamente comprometida con los años militares. Frente a estas presiones centrifugas y centrípetas. ¿qué opciones quedan para una salida airosa de este conflicto? Por lo pronto la calle y los grupos movilizados tienen todas las de ganar, con la caída del equipo de gobierno y la multiplicación de tensiones en su seno, que de hecho marcan un profundo quiebre generacional entre los políticos de los años de luchas políticas históricas y otra generación simplemente comprometida con que el país acceda a un desarrollo razonable y equilibrado, lo que en el caso chileno no es mucho pedir.(1) Titulo de la campana publicitaria del gobierno chileno para la promoción del país en el extranjero.(2) A principios del mes de junio de 2011 la Contraloria chilena puso en evidencia en un informe exhaustivo las deficiencias y delitos asociados a la promoción del crédito de una de las mayores casas de consumo y crédito del país, La Polar. *Doctor en Ciencia Política del Instituto de Estudios Políticos de Paris. Master en Política Comparada en Sciences-Po Paris y Master en Estudios Post-soviéticos del Programa IMARS (European University of Saint-Petersbourg/Berkeley). Actualmente es maestro de conferencias de la Universidad Americana-IES Paris y Sciences-Po Paris

AMÉRICA LATINA Explotación infantil aún es problema en varios países latinoamericanos.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/explotacin-infantil-en-amrica-latina_10495370-4Chávez amplía sus apariciones mientras empeora su aspecto.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/03/actualidad/1317674819_489145.htmlSegún encuesta crece la popularidad de Chávez.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74580.htmlChávez amenaza con no pagar reclamaciones por nacionalizaciones.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/chvez-amenaza-con-no-pagar-reclamaciones-por-nacionalizaciones_10473085-4Cuatro presos muertos al estallar granada en cárcel venezolana.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/muertos-en-crcel-venezolana_10491364-4Policía peruana rescata a 293 mujeres sometidas a explotación sexual.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44765864/ns/world_news-americas/ http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/la-polica-peruana-rescata-a-293-mujeres-sometidas-a-explotacin-sexual_10485945-4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15165339El Gobierno de Evo Morales arremete contra la marcha indígena y la prensa.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/03/actualidad/1317669250_938543.html http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/indgenas-bolivianos-reiniciaron-este-sbado-su-marcha-hacia-la-paz_10478244-4Instan a Estados Unidos a llegar a América Latina por Twitter.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74575.htmlEl Senado haitiano nombró a Garry Conille como primer ministro.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/primer-ministro-de-hait_10501164-4Veracruz y su lucha contra el narcotráfico.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/03/actualidad/1317622884_609717.html 2 ciudadanos estadounidenses son asesinados en México.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/04/world/americas/mexico-us-citizens-killed/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44752902/ns/world_news-americas/Castro critica discurso de Obama ante la ONU.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/09/26/world/americas/cuba-castro-obama/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8Guatemala: acusan a general de la muerte de más de 1700 campesinos.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74579.htmlTormenta tropical Ophelia se debilita.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44750214/ns/weather/Jóvenes combaten el machismo en Ecuador con 'Cascos Rosa'.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/con-cascos-rosa-luchan-contra-el-machismo-en-ecuador_10499664-4Se esperan pactos comerciales entre Corea del Sur, Panamá y Colombia.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-obama-trade-20111004,0,4408023.storyAmérica Latina atrae turistas chinos.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/09/26/travel/latin-china-tourism/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8ESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁCrecen los 'indignados' contra corporativismo de Wall Street en Estados Unidos.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/04/content_13836851.htm http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/crecen-indignados-en-ee-uu_10493264-4 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/las-protestas-contra-wall-street-se-extienden-en-ee-uu_10480224-4 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/02/actualidad/1317508729_143121.htmlAyuda de Estados Unidos a terceros países es golpeada por falta de presupuesto.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/us/politics/foreign-aid-set-to-take-hit-in-united-states-budget-crisis.html?ref=worldDemócratas dudan de la reelección de Barack Obama.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/democratas-dudan-de-la-reeleccion-de-barack-obama_10501345-4"El Universal" de México analiza: "el peso de las promesas incumplidas de Obama".Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74564.htmlNueva York: una persona murió tras estrellarse un helicóptero en el East River.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1411801-nueva-york-un-helicoptero-cayo-al-east-river http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74574.htmlLos ilegales huyen de Alabama: una nueva ley criminaliza al indocumentado y al que le da trabajo.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1411879-los-ilegales-huyen-de-alabama http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/alabama-ahuyenta-a-los-nios-indocumentados-de-las-clases_10484946-4Abogados estadounidenses demandan a China alegando ciber ataques.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-cyber-theft-20111005,0,6673262.storyLa ola verde llega al ejército de Estados Unidos para ahorrar energía.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/la-ola-verde-llega-al-ejrcito-de-eu-para-ahorrar-energa-dinero-y-salvar-vidas_10484804-4 Obama le respondió preguntas a la comunidad hispana vía Internet.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/obama-responde-preguntas-a-comunidad-hispana_10453366-4 Según Bernanke la economía estadounidense está "tambaleante".Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15173683Amanda Knox regresó a Estados Unidos tras su liberación en Italia.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/amanda-knox-regres-a-estados-unidos_10500087-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-amanda-knox-20111005,0,5216522.storyEUROPAEuropa y Estados Unidos tratan de movilizar a la ONU contra Siria.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/04/actualidad/1317741908_329715.htmlFrancia exige a Siria que no arremeta contra activistas.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15164829Grecia vuelve a atemorizar a las bolsas.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44783144/ns/world_news-europe/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1411613-grecia-vuelve-a-atemorizar-a-las-bolsas http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/09/28/actualidad/1317235931_778203.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15161809 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-greece-debt-20111005,0,7599935.storyPutin propone a la Unión Europea una integración euroasiática desde Lisboa a Vladivostok.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/04/actualidad/1317721258_290067.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15172519Alemania aprueba la ampliación de fondo de rescate europeo.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/09/29/world/europe/germany-europe-bailout/index.html?hpt=wo_bn9El nuevo liderazgo de Turquía siembra dudas.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/09/28/actualidad/1317232050_921770.htmlActivistas kurdos son detenidos en Turquía.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/europe/kurdish-activists-detained-in-turkey.html?ref=worldLos jóvenes piden la palabra: el 60% de los turcos tiene menos de 35 años. Ya no les sirven las reglas de juego dictadas por los militares.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/09/28/actualidad/1317242683_259203.htmlCoche bomba mata a ocho individuos en Rusia.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/03/world/europe/russia-dagestan-attack/index.html?hpt=wo_bn9 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-09/29/content_13814218.htmLos escándalos cercan a Sarkozy.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/01/actualidad/1317498610_747541.htmlASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTEVeto de Rusia y China a una resolución en la ONU de condena a Siria.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44779454/ns/world_news-europe/ http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/veto-de-rusia-y-china-a-una-resolucin-en-la-onu-de-condena-a-siria_10501284-4Siria se desliza hacia una guerra civil.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/04/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/04/actualidad/1317746845_174564.htmlAfganistán firma pacto estratégico con India.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74573.html http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/04/actualidad/1317740805_017278.htmlhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44777299/ns/us_news-life/Diez muertos y seis heridos en ataque contra bus en Pakistán.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/diez-muertos-y-seis-heridos-en-ataque-contra-bus-de-pasajeros-en-pakistn_10493585-4 http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/04/world/asia/pakistan-nato-truck/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2011/10/04/meurtre-de-rabbani-kaboul-accuse-le-pakistan-de-ne-pas-cooperer_1582191_3216.htmlAtaque a musulmanes chiitas deja 13 muertos en Pakistán.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44767067/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/ http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/04/content_13837019.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/asia/gunmen-attack-shiites-in-southwest-pakistan.html?ref=worldFilipinas es azotada por tifones.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/03/world/asia/philippines-typhoon/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44772469/ns/weather/Afganistán cumple diez años en guerra.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/afganistn-cumple-diez-aos-en-guerra_10493028-4 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44782723/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/El presidente de Afganistán propone no negociar más con los talibanes.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/karzai-propone-no-negociar-ms-con-talibanes_10479765-4 http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/02/travel/afghanistan-pakistan-assassination/index.html?hpt=wo_bn7 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2011/10/03/karzai-va-convoquer-une-assemblee-sur-la-strategie-de-negociation-avec-les-talibans_1581733_3216.htmlEl Nobel de la Paz Liu Xiaobo visita a su familia encarcelada.Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2011/10/04/le-nobel-de-la-paix-2010-liu-xiaobo-visite-en-prison-par-sa-famille_1581746_3216.htmlIngeniero chino es asesinado en ataque al sur de Sudan.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/03/content_13835370.htmYemen: el conflicto civil convierte a Saná en un nuevo Beirut.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/03/actualidad/1317664188_204934.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2011/10/04/les-chebab-revendiquent-une-attaque-suicide-a-mogadiscio_1581866_3212.html http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2011/10/04/deux-civils-tues-par-des-tirs-d-obus-a-sanaa-au-yemen_1582180_3218.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/02/content_13833417.htmÁFRICAAtentado suicida en Somalia: 82 muertos.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15166107 http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/74571.html http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/atentado-suicida-en-mogadiscio-somalia_10494325-4http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1411880-atentado-suicida-en-somalia-82-muertos http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/africa/truck-bomb-kills-dozens-in-somalias-capital.html?_r=1&ref=world http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/04/world/africa/somalia-violence/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-somalia-bombing-20111005,0,3225173.storyLos rebeldes libios demoran el asalto sobre Sirte para permitir la salida de civiles.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/02/actualidad/1317567992_288780.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/habitantes-de-la-asediada-sirte-viven-situacin-desesperada_10482406-4 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/04/content_13835781.htm Continúa la violencia extrema en Sudan.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2011/10/03/actualidad/1317626362_221864.htmlDalai Lama cancela su visita a Sudáfrica.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/asia/dalai-lama-cancels-south-africa-visit.html?ref=world http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-south-africa-dalai-lama-20110929,0,6506401.storyCorte Internacional de La Haya investiga crímenes de guerra en Costa de Marfil.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/world/europe/the-hague-court-will-investigate-war-crimes-in-ivory-coast-violence.html?ref=world http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/03/world/africa/ivory-coast-war-crimes/index.html?hpt=wo_bn10 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15165641 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44768354/ns/world_news-africa/OTRAS NOTICIASEn 2011 las empresas ya perdieron U$S 16.000 millones en la Bolsa.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1412020-en-2011-las-empresas-ya-perdieron-us-16000-millones-en-la-bolsaFMI reduce proyección de crecimiento económico global a 4,0%Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/economia/internacional/fmi-reduce-proyeccin-de-crecimiento-econmico-global_10308844-4"El Universal" presenta su portal dedicado al cambio climático.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/coberturas/cobertura3.html"The Economist" presenta su informe semanal: "Business this week".Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21526960

Niall Ferguson ha completado una rigurosa saga sobre las virtudes, limitaciones, ascenso y declinación de Occidente. Su último trabajo, "Civilization, the West and the Rest" (Penguin, 2011), es por sí solo un notable análisis histórico del inédito "liberal Project" que se desarrolló en un extremo de Eurasia desde el siglo XVI en adelante. Sin embargo, es posible e incluso necesario tomarlo como la secuela de "Empire, The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power" (Allen Lane, 2003) y "Colossus, The Price of America´s Empire" (Penguin, 2004). Como parte de una trilogía, este libro posee un notable valor histórico y analítico. El libro comienza detallando la considerable supremacía y el alto nivel de desarrollo que hace 500 años Oriente mostraba sobre aquello que hoy conocemos como Occidente. Por ejemplo, la comparación que Ferguson lleva a cabo entre el nivel de desarrollo tecnológico de la armada china y la armada española es reveladora. Paso seguido, el autor señala las 6 características que explican el exitoso desempeño primero de Europa continental y, luego, de esa otra parte de Europa que esAmérica: la competencia, la ciencia, la propiedad o estado de derecho, la medicina, la sociedad de consumo y la ética del trabajo.Una revolución geopolítica y económica representa el ascenso de uno(s) y la declinación de otro(s). Ferguson sostiene que asistimos a un cambio de paradigma después de 500 años de dominación Occidental y desarrolla una rigurosa explicación sobre las razones que llevaron a Occidente a comenzar a superar a Oriente (mas particularmente, a China) a partir del año 1500. El autor remarca que"…the principal question addressed in this book increasingly seems to be the most interesting question a historian can ask. Just why, beginning around 1500, did a few small polities of the Western end of the Eurasian landmass come to dominate the rest of the world, including the most populous and in many ways more sophisticated of Eastern Eurasia? My subsidiary question is this: if we can come up with a good explanation for the West past ascendancy, can then we offer a prognocis for its future? Is this really the end of the West´s world and the advent of a new Eastern epoch?" (1).En "Colossus", Ferguson había marcado el benigno papel del imperio informal americano en el largo siglo XX. La democracia mas antigua del mundo no solo se había convertido en imperio sino que ello suponía una condición necesaria para la prosperidad global, particularmente para aquellos actores secundarios y terciarios que no teníanlos mecanismos ni la capacidad para incorporarse por si solos a la nueva economía. Sin embargo, en "Colossus" Ferguson también exponía como el imperio informal americano ha carecido de determinadas herramientas burocráticas presentes, por ejemplo, en la notable vocación imperial británica. En parte, "Colossus" refleja que la necesaria presencia imperial americana pudo incluso tener secuelas mas promisorias si ese imperio informal, que ahora llega a su fin, hubiera asumido genuina y profundamente su rol en la historia contemporánea. "Civilization, The West and theRest" viene a fundamentar que ese noble rol ya no puede ser jugado ni por EE.UU. ni por Occidente.En un tema tan trillado es difícil ser original y el autor lo logra. Para ello, recurre a un sofisticado análisis histórico y analítico basado, al menos en parte, en una hipótesis: Oriente, particularmente China, ha incorporado eficientemente 5 de las 6 características que han generado el inédito bienestar contemporáneo de las sociedades Occidentales. Para Ferguson, solo faltaría la propiedad o el estado de derecho. Sin embargo, podemos pensar que el estado de derecho o Rule of Law es, junto a la competencia y la ética del trabajo, los principales pilares de la exitosa experiencia que, a lo largo de 500 años, ha sido Occidente. En una medida, no es posible argumentar a favor (o en contra) de la economía de mercado y el libre comercio sin hacerlo primero sobre el marco institucional que le da vida. Un párrafo aparte merece la relevancia que alcanza para el autor el papel de la ética del trabajo. Basándose en el clásico libro de Max Weber, Ferguson rescata el papel que la ética protestante ha tenido en el desarrollo de los EE.UU. Por otro lado, el autor menciona que esta ética no es propiedad exclusiva de esa expresión religiosa. Es que hay una ética del trabajo en el catolicismo, budismo o confusionismo. Es posible que una de ellas sea mas eficiente que las otras, pero es claro que no existe solo una ética del trabajo para alcanzar el desarrollo. El libro realiza una selección de fotos reveladoras y una de ellas es la de un maduro Max Weber.El papel civilizador que ha tenido el imperio informal moderno que simboliza Occidente ha dejado secuelas positivas que trascenderán su incipiente declinación. El liberalismo como proyecto universal ha fracasado. Sin embargo, permanece vigente un conjunto de normas formales e informales que se han consolidado espontáneamente a lo largo de 500 años inéditos en la historia de la humanidad.Si bien en sus sucesivos libros es posible ver un intento premeditado de ser políticamente incorrecto, en "Civilization"Fergusonbusca y logra sopesar los grandes aciertos junto a las grandes miserias de Occidente. Solo después llega a la sólida conclusión que los aciertos han contribuido a un escenario donde el bienestar se ha democratizado. Este proceso de democratización del bienestar acontecido contemporáneamente en Occidente es inédito en la historia universal. En este punto, Ferguson hace bien en ser todo lo políticamente incorrecto que se pueda, ya que esta descripción posee una dimensión ética innegable: la academia, bien representada en la sofisticada costa este de los EE.UU., ha pasado gran parte de las últimas décadas cuestionando y exponiendo sólo las miserias de Occidente. Si bien ello ha sido para estos exponentes políticamente correcto y profesionalmente sofisticado, Ferguson expone las falencias de esta particular forma que ha tomado la hipocresía (Occidental).En cierto sentido, podemos marcar que para Ferguson es secundario cuánto le debe o deberá la nueva prosperidad de Oriente a las ideas, políticas e instituciones aprendidas de Occidente. No es este el punto principal. La nobleza de la civilización Occidental trasciende a la mayor o menor permanenciade sus ideas e instituciones en el "Eastern Project". En cambio, el valor de estos 500 años de preeminencia Occidental hay que encontrarlos en la aparición de una vocación universal que supuso incorporar la igualdad y la libertad como valores y aspiraciones mutuamente necesarias. Si es que Occidente y el "Liberal Project" descansaron en esta aspiración, su declinación relativa será relevante como situación geopolítica pero secundaria como símbolo. Mas aún, el siglo o la época de Oriente que comienza estará de alguna forma influido por estos 500 años donde la igualdad y la libertad han aparecido como valores universales, mas allá de su fracaso o incapacidad de devenir o permanecer (universalmente)en la nueva geopolítica global.Todo trabajo ambicioso tiene necesariamente puntos débiles y criticables. "Civilization" no es la excepción. Ferguson abusa del papel que, supuestamente, tienen los malos libros de historia en la formación parcial de las nuevas generaciones. Menciona demasiadas veces (en el libro, en sus clases o en sus reiteradas apariciones televisivas) que sus profesores de Historia tenían una visión global sobre el papel de Occidente mucho mas sofisticada que los profesores de sus hijos. Tal vez sea cierto. Sin embargo, tal vez sea solo una buena anécdota.Por otro lado, en el apartado sobre la propiedad (capítulo 3), el autor ocupa demasiado tiempo en la repetida y consabida comparación entre la conquista británica de América del Norte y la conquista ibérica, particularmente española, de América del Sur. El punto es importante y, ciertamente, relevante para el enfoque del libro. Sin embargo, mas allá de anécdotas puntuales, Ferguson no innova en la cuestión y se repite en innecesarias citas que reflejan la vocación autoritaria de personajes (como Bolívar) relevantes para América Latina pero poco relevantes para el objetivo del libro.Ferguson no es un historiador económico sino un original historiador que incorpora en sus análisis la rigurosidad de la economía. Es capaz de pasar de una mención sobre los agentes económicos relevantes en la revolución de 1848a describir el comportamiento probable del bono a 10 años del tesoro de los EE.UU. y mencionar como una agencia crediticia china (Dagong) ha rebajado en noviembre de 2010 la nota de la deuda de EE.UU. (de AA a A+, con perspectiva negativa) o a enumerar en la pagina 317 la estrategia de la inserción china en África.Paso seguido, en la página 319 el autor se pregunta: "What could go wrong for the ascending chinese dragon?". En principio, hay 4 diferentes hipótesis elaboradas por quienes pronostican un traspié. La primera es débil y se basa en la comparación con la experiencia japonesa de finales de los 80´. Es claro que si muchos analistas pronosticaron que Japón superaría a EE.UU. y fallaron, eso poco informa sobre la nueva confrontación por la supremacía. La segunda es mas sólida: China podría sucumbir ante incipientes demandas e incluso explosiones sociales, como efectivamente ha sucedido en el pasado en distintos procesos de modernización. Un tercer escenario es también razonable como problema: una creciente clase media articulándose para demandar una mayor participación política. La cuarta y última sostiene que el creciente poderío chino podría generar alarma en sus vecinos, haciendo que éstos buscaran un balance de poder, coaligándose con EE.UU.Como mencionamos, la notable secuela de Ferguson comienza en 2003 con la historia del auge y caída del imperio británico. El enfoque allí estaba dirigido a cuestionarse cuánto y qué puede aprender el imperio americano de su antecesor y mentor, el imperio británico. En 2004 Ferguson publica el original "Colossus". Entre 2003 y 2011, fecha de la publicación de "Civilization", el autor escribe una historia de la moneda ("TheAscent of Money, A Financial History of theWorld" (Penguin, 2008)). En alguna medida, podemos pensar que es una pieza que enriquece esta notable trilogía de la declinación de Occidente.Es posible ver tres presentaciones sobre "Civilization" (dos relativamente breves (una de las cuales es en BBC radio 4 y la otra en TED) y otra mas larga) en:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxpO5SKlmPA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpnFeyMGUs8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AORm8Nvoud4Niall Ferguson tiene una página web con información académica y de actualidad:http://www.niallferguson.com(1).-Fergusson, Niall (2011): "The west and the rest". Preface to the UK Edition.Página XV. En la mismalógica, el autor continua: "Put differently, are we witnessing the waning of an age when the greater part of the humanity was more or less subordinated to the civilization that arose in western Europe in the wake of the Renaissance and Reformation-the civilization that, propelled by the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment, spread across the Atlantic and as far as the Antipodes, finally reaching its apogee during the Ages of revolution, Industry and Empire?"Página XV.*Licenciada en Relaciones Internacionales (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella-Argentina), maestrando en Arquitectura Urbana (Universidad Di Tella-Argentina)Ha sido Profesora Adjunta en Historia Economica (Universidad Di Tella-Argentina) *New York: Penguin, 2011. 402 páginas

Durante los últimos años, la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales ha venido incorporando con gran rapidez algunos de los avances tecnológicos más variados. El rápido crecimiento y difusión del internet ha sido un elemento clave en la nueva forma de estudiar y hacer relaciones internacionales. La interconexión casi instantánea de distintas partes del planeta ha permitido que la información (ya sea en forma de texto, imagen o audio) se vuelva un recurso disponible de manera continua y, en gran parte, de forma gratuita o a muy bajo costo. En este contexto, el estudio de las relaciones internacionales ha incorporado en el último tiempo el fenómeno de los blogs y las redes sociales. Esta suerte de "diarios personales" online han crecido exponencialmente sobre todo en los Estados Unidos, donde profesores, académicos y hasta incluso estadistas pueden "postear" en cualquier momento sus opiniones o pensamientos con respecto a temas de la política o la economía internacionales. Asimismo, van más allá de la mera publicación de avisos, comentarios y opiniones, y constituyen un espacio descontracturado y más informal para probar el grado de aceptación de algunas nuevas (y hasta a veces algo alocadas) ideas. En esta oportunidad, analizaremos algunas de las más llamativas de estas nuevas conjeturas publicadas en blogs de académicos y profesores de nuestra disciplina. En especial, vamos a concentrarnos en una cierta moda de los últimos años que se basa en presentar novedosas "teorías" de relaciones internacionales haciendo analogías con series de televisión, personajes de comic, géneros de películas, y hasta incluso con el más vulgar conocimiento popular. Por último, haremos una revisión crítica de la utilidad y propósito de este creciente fenómeno en nuestra disciplina. I Para el estudiante de las relaciones internacionales, ser un conocedor de la "@" y la "www" se ha vuelto algo indispensable. Hoy en día, es casi imposible mantenerse informado de los sucesos del mundo sin el acceso a una buena computadora y una aceptable conexión de internet. No obstante, el poseer la tecnología aún no se equipara con el saber utilizarla; o mejor debiera decir "saber utilizarla bien". Una rápida consulta a un sitio web confiable y consistente nos puede ahorrar cientos de horas de (mal) búsqueda y (mala) lectura. En lo que respecta a la teoría de las relaciones internacionales, un fenómeno reciente ha sido el auge de ciertas nuevas conjeturas teóricas apoyadas en analogías y comparaciones algo superficiales de conocimiento convencional. Estas "teorías bloggeras", como bien podríamos llamarlas, son la moda del momento. Por ello, merecen un análisis cuidadoso y certero de sus fortalezas y debilidades. Comencemos primero por tomarnos los argumentos con la misma seriedad de quienes las postulan, e intentemos luego sopesar los argumentos más en perspectiva. A comienzos del 2009, la revista Foreign Policy abrazó esta nueva tendencia creando una sección especial en su sitio web oficial para que algunos de los más reconocidos académicos y políticos norteamericanos pudieran mantener día a día un registro de sus opiniones y pensamientos. Con la creación oficial de estos blogs de relaciones internacionales, dentro del marco de la revista, no sólo se buscó la promoción comercial de Foreign Policy en sí sino también el entablar un contacto algo más informal y participativo entre los lectores y algunos de sus mayores exponentes. En este marco, Daniel W. Drezner, un reconocido analista internacional y profesor de la Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, en la Tuft University, abrió una caja de pandora en el mes de agosto pasado al publicar una hilarante aplicación de la teoría de relaciones internacionales para entender un hipotético escenario en donde los zombies fuesen reales. En su ensayo, titulado "Teoría de la Política Internacional y los Zombies", Drezner, fiel a su sarcástica pero punzante forma de escribir, lleva casi al extremo algunas de las principales hipótesis neorrealistas, liberales y constructivistas para aventurar cómo verían al mundo cada una de estas escuelas teóricas luego de una invasión zombie. En su ensayo, si bien Drezner se apoya en un estudio matemático realizado por una universidad canadiense con meros fines "explorativos", no existe la más mínima intención de plantear conclusiones con gran seriedad sino más bien de escribir un artículo provocador y bastante divertido. Quienes navegan la web, sin embargo, parecen no haber entendido este último pero crucial punto. Los comentarios al post original de Drezner, por ejemplo, rápidamente fueron subiendo de tono y terminaron generando un exagerado debate (un ya clásico "debate bloggero") que sobrepasa en extensión al ensayo inicial de Drezner. Como el mismo autor lo ha planteado, lo que comenzó como un simple post mañanero ha terminado tomando una vida propia. En los meses subsiguientes, Drezner atendió a los pedidos de sus lectores y de los directivos de Foreign Policy, y preparó un artículo algo más extenso y elaborado que finalmente salió a fines de agosto en el nro. oficial de la revista. Para fines de 2010, Drezner ya ha acordado con Princeton University Press la publicación del libro. Otro de los casos-web más resonantes entre quienes estudian las teorías de relaciones internacionales, es la "teoría geopolítica de Linterna Verde" [sic] propuesta por Matthew Yglesias, un reconocido "bloggero", egresado de Harvard, y devenido en comentarista político online para The Atlantic y The American Prospect. Esta intrigante "teoría" se basa en una analogía con el famoso superhéroe de los comic "Linterna Verde", quien según la historieta conforma un cuerpo interestelar de mantenimiento de la paz. Estos pacificadores son pertrechados con un "anillo del poder" (el arma más poderosa del Universo) para poder llevar a cabo sus misiones. Según relata Yglesias, estos anillos otorgan un poder casi absoluto a quienes los portan. Los límites a su poder se encuentran sólo en los límites de imaginación del portador. Por ello es que se vuelve indispensable que quien porta el anillo posea la capacidad de sobrepasar sus propios miedos. En defintiva, el artículo de Yglesias es un análisis altamente crítico de la forma de entender el mundo durante los años de George Bush hijo. Según el autor, se ha vuelto muy común entender en una misma sintonía a la del "anillo de poder" de Linterna Verde a la actual posición norteamericana de hegemonía global y a los posibles usos de su poder militar. Esta peculiar perspectiva a generado numerosas repercusiones para las finanzas y la economía internacional (por ejemplo, ver aquí y aquí). La gran diferencia entre Drezner e Yglesias, más allá de las credenciales profesionales, es que Drezner no escribió su ensayo con seriedad sino como un divertimento para los entendidos, algo así como un "inside joke". El post de Yglesias, así como el de muchos otros (y que por cuestiones de espacio no veremos aquí) parten del supuesto de que estas "teorías bloggeras" merecen ser estudiadas con profundidad y seriedad. En base a ello, se toman posturas a favor o en contra (generalmente en términos extremos), y se desarrollan largas discusiones online. Sin embargo, aún nadie se ha replanteado cuán útil son estas nuevas conjeturas (más allá de una divertida y corta lectura al paso) para la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales. Es decir, si constituyen un fenómeno constructivo, o si son más bien una pérdida de tiempo. II A la hora de aproximar un análisis crítico de este novedoso (aunque popular) fenómeno de las "teorías bloggeras" de la política internacional, trataremos de no caer exclusivamente en definiciones igualmente extremas tanto a favor como en contra. Veamos también cuáles son los incentivos y los limitantes. En primer lugar, debemos mencionar que, a diferencia de un libro o un artículo académico, la extensión del formato blog es muy limitada. Por ello, las ideas sólo pueden ser presentadas de manera esquemática y reducida, a veces incluso de manera caricaturizada. En este contexto, entonces, no es difícil entender el porqué de la popularidad en el uso de figuras conocidas como superhéroes de los comics, ya que ello ayuda en gran parte a presentar ideas medianamente complejas de manera rápida y efectiva. La tentación pasa, así, por querer evitar las largas pero necesarias explicaciones sobre moralidad y la necesidad de la prudencia en la política internacional, y reemplazarlo todo por una buena cita del Hombre Araña: "con todo gran poder, viene una gran responsabilidad". En segundo lugar, para quienes ocupan un rol semi-institucional en la web, como los mencionados expertos que contribuyen en el blog de Foreign Policy, la presión de escribir dentro de determinados lapsos de tiempo, como por ejemplo: una vez cada tres días, genera un potencial agotamiento de los temas sobre los cuales escribir. No sólo debe uno prestar cuidado a lo que escribe, sino a cómo lo hace. Los tiránicos plazos de tiempo de la web claramente conspiran contra la calidad de muchos de los posts de relaciones internacionales. Al constante apuro de publicación, debe sumársele el corto tiempo para procesar los argumentos y sopesar las conclusiones que ello mismo conlleva. Por lo general, un buen argumento o hipótesis necesitan de un profundo proceso de peer-review antes de salir al mundo. De esa manera, nacen con más solidez y aumentan su calidad académica ya que atienden las potenciales críticas con anticipación. El caso de Drezner merece ser tenido en cuenta porque es, indiscutiblemente, el caso paradigmático de esta nueva tendencia. De un simple post, a un artículo, y próximamente a formato libro, su "teoría" es una primera experimentación en la posible utilidad didáctica (tal vez) de ejercitar con las teorías tradicionales de la disciplina. Sin embargo, no debe olvidarse que si hay algo que justifica la existencia de la "teoría de relaciones internacionales", ello es que debe ayudar a quienes toman decisiones en nombre del Estado. Dudo mucho que la publicación de un libro sobre "la problemática zombie en las relaciones internacionales" ayude a alguien más que a su autor, financieramente. En definitiva, creo que esta nueva oleada de conjeturas teóricas en clave popular si bien es un ejercicio muy didáctico, divertido y algo descontracturante para quienes estudiamos estos temas día a día, no debe tomarse muy en serio. Tampoco debieran disparar, por ejemplo, largos debates desde posturas extremas o, ni mucho menos, en términos absolutos, como ya lo ha dicho Obi-Wan Kenobi. Si de hacer analogías se trata, creo que difícilmente pueda uno encontrar una mejor fuente de creatividad e inspiración, e incluso de fuentes didácticas, que la infalible literatura. El señor de las moscas de William Golding, Rebelión en la granja, de George Orwell, o El hombre que era jueves, de Gilbert Chesterton, por ejemplo, vienen a la mente. Las modas, en definitiva, son sólo eso: indicadores de tendencia y cosas pasajeras. Sin embargo, la teoría debe basarse en la esencia de las cosas, en lo perdurable. Por todo ello, sigo sosteniendo, no hay nada como los clásicos. *Profesor, Universidad Abierta Interamericana (UAI), Buenos Aires. Maestría en Estudios Internacionales,Universidad Torcuato di Tella (Tesista).

One year after a national election in which the Democrats won not only the presidency but 18 congressional seats and 9 new senators, the party lost two major gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, but won an unexpected congressional seat in upstate New York. Clearly, Obama's coattails did not prove strong enough to bring out the two groups that helped him go over the top in last year's election, namely, the youth vote and the African American votes. There are many lessons to be learned by both parties from this past week' s elections, but there is also the risk of over interpreting results as a prequel of next year's mid-term elections. First, in an "off-off" year, most of the electorate was indifferent to the elections, worried as they are about more pressing issues such as higher taxes, the ever-expanding deficit and more than anything else, about unemployment, which has just surpassed the 10% mark in spite of reported GDP growth of 3.5% this quarter. Second, the state gubernatorial races were played out at the local level and had more to do with the candidates themselves than with the voters 'discontent with the President. Indeed, in a Virginia exit poll, 60% of the voters said that they had based their vote on state issues, while only 24% of those polled said they had used their vote to express their dissatisfaction with the President and 20% to express their support for him. On the other hand, Congressional elections reflect more of the national mood, and here the Democrats were winners: due to an inner brawl among Republicans, they unexpectedly won a seat the Republicans had held since the 1870s in the twenty-third district of New York. still, just as it would be a mistake to give national significance to the state races, it would also be silly to miss the obvious: the preponderant mood in the country is anti-incumbency, and this affects both parties. But clearly, independents who voted for Obama are re-directing their votes toward the Republicans and becoming savvier, more issue specific voters. In addition, both parties have base problems: the Democrats need to figure out how to get their base to the polls during off-year elections, and the Republicans must find ways to control their base so that it does not destroy the party. Turnout was the definitive factor in both gubernatorial races: it fell from 3.7 million to under 2 million in Virginia, and from almost 4 million to 2.3 million in New Jersey. The Republicans and Independents were more energized than the Democratic base, so they voted in larger numbers. Young voters between 18 and 29 years of age represented only 10% in Virginia and 9% in New Jersey. In contrast, in the 2008 presidential race they represented 21% and 17% respectively, and are credited for delivering the states to Obama in both cases. In New Jersey, an unpopular Democratic incumbent, albeit an Obama ally, lost to a new Republican face that ran on a fiscally conservative platform. Obama's appeal was apparently weaker than the voters' aversion for Jon Corzine, so U.S district attorney Chris Christie won, becoming the first Republican to win that position in 12 years. In Virginia, Bob McDonnell underplayed his extreme socially conservative views and his connection to Christian Right leader Pat Robertson. Instead, he ran a positive campaign based on job creation, quality of life for Virginians and fiscal responsibility. His opponent, Creigh Deeds, ran a negative TV ad campaign based on his opponent's social conservatism and his ideology as reflected in a misogynist twenty-year old thesis. In a calculation that backfired, Deeds distanced himself from President Obama for most of his campaign, only to turn to him towards the end. It proved to be too late. On that sunny autumnal day, Democratic voters, especially African Americans and young voters, the two groups than gave Obama his victory in Virginia, were absent from the polls. After eight years of two outstanding Democratic governors, the Executive Mansion in Richmond reverted to Republicans. Unlike Governor Warner who in 2005 prepared the way for his successor, Tim Kaine had spent most of 2009 out of the state, in his new national role as chairman the Democratic National Committee, and did very little to help Deeds. Kaine's national ambition seems to have gotten in the way of his local role as Deeds' promoter and cheerleader, and he became, in the words of Professor Larry Sabato, more of a "partisan rather than a unifying figure" at home. However, the apathy of Democratic voters has deeper roots than just civic irresponsibility or lack of engagement. It is also a reflection of disillusion and even rage with the failure of the Obama administration to create jobs and to deal with Wall Street in stricter terms, for example by breaking up the "too-big-to-fail" banks, introducing stricter regulation of derivatives trading and by reducing of CEO's compensation. Again, in spite of all the rhetoric, Obama seems to have bailed out Wall Street at the expense of middle-class tax payers and small businesses. In sum, Obama's young followers and liberals stayed home because Obama is moving too slowly in crucial issues; independents switched parties because of their own fears of losing their jobs and facing higher taxes, as well as to punish the Democrats for too much government spending with little results for higher employment; and McDonnell benefited as much from a weak, erratic opponent who ran a terrible campaign as he did from his own smart strategy and pragmatic style.While the main problem then for Democrats is how to energize the base so that they can fulfill their civic duty and vote, the Republicans have the opposite problem: how to control their base so that it does not get in the way of allowing the party to field moderate candidates that can get the Independent vote. In this sense, what happened in New York 23rd district may be a blessing in disguise for the Republicans, as it will teach them a lesson in time for next year mid-term election. In this previously little known congressional district near the Canadian border, the Republican Party nominated moderate Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava in a special election called to fill the seat of Representative JohnMcHugh (R-NY) who had been appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama. This was regarded as a safe Republican seat given that the party had held it for over 100 years. However, in a twist of events that took both parties by surprise, Conservatives rebelled against the party nominee, whose social values were deemed too liberal, and fielded their own candidate, Doug Hoffman, with the support of talk show celebrities Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck and Sarah Palin. The Club for Growth, main supporter of Tea Partiers and Birthers, poured a lot of money in support of Hoffman, and consequently Scozzafava, the official Republican Party nominee, started training in the polls. On the weekend before the election, Scozzafava abandoned the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate! The Right was jubilant, confident of a victory in this rural district, which has very few immigrants and is 93% white. Indeed, Fox news insisted on predicting a "tidal wave" in favor of the Conservative candidate all throughout Election Day, only to be forced to concede at past midnight that instead, the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, had won. The election in the 23rd district, then, served as a warning to Republicans of whatnot to do in 2010. While the two Republicans that won the gubernatorial races did so by moving to center, thus appealing to Independents and moderates, the main losers in New York state were the Tea Partiers and Birthers who have taken advantage of the vacuum of leadership at the top, have hijacked the Republican Party and made the country at times seem ungovernable. Let it be noted here that both conservative candidates then- to- be governors elect, Chris Christie in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell in Virginia, had rejected Palin's offer to campaign for them. Recognizing the relevance of this kind of wisdom, as well as his good looks and ability to persuade, McDonnell is already being touted as a possible candidate for the 2012 national ticket.2009 will be remembered as the year of anti-incumbency, but this anti-incumbent mood is not so much about Obama, who still enjoys close to 60% of popularity, as it is about government in general. Indeed, every special Congressional election since Obama assumed the presidency has been won by Democrats even in seats previously held by Republicans. In politics, one year is an eternity, so it is difficult to extrapolate the November 3rd results to next year's mid-term election. It all depends on whether the economic stimulus starts to work more consistently and is translated into jobs. The passage of health care reform by the House is undoubtedly a victory for Democrats, but it was a narrow one, with 39 Democrats voting against it, in spite of serious compromises by House Speaker Pelosi, including one amendment that prohibits the use of federal money for abortion and that is already under fire by the party's liberals. If the so-called Stupak amendment is not taken out in House-Senate conference, then the Party may see a huge backlash by women and other groups. Still, health care reform will be a reality by year's end, and once it passes it will become sacred: voters will embrace it (as they did with Medicaid and Medicare, as well as Social Security) and, together with job recovery, it may become the basis of a better mid-term election for Democrats than most pundits are predicting now.Finally, while the two gubernatorial races were won by the Republicans, and can be read as a warning to incumbent governors everywhere in next year's elections, it is clear that the largest group that went to the polls were mainly McCain voters, as well as disgruntled independent voters who shifted to the right. And while this trend is good news for the Republicans, the inexorable weight of demographics is against them: these races were won by an overwhelmingly white and older, more male than female, electorate who constitute at the same time an increasingly smaller percentage of the population as a whole. The fastest-rising voting groups do not vote for the Republican Party, which they consider the party "without ideas". To win next year, the GOP needs to regroup fast, get rid of the Palin-Limbaugh baggage and find new leadership. A year has gone by since their huge electoral loss and they have yet to find it. Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia

Aus der Einleitung: Staatliche Investmentfonds gewinnen zunehmend an Bedeutung für die globale Finanzwirtschaft und Politik. Fast täglich erscheinen neue Schlagzeilen über getätigte Investitionen einzelner Staatsfonds und Diskussionen auf nationaler und multinationaler Ebene, wie mit dieser Entwicklung umzugehen ist. Das Vermögen der Staatsfonds beziffert sich aktuell auf fast 4 Billionen US-Dollar. Damit beträgt ihr Anlagevermögen mehr als das Doppelte der globalen Hedgefonds-Branche und etwa ein Siebtel des Vermögens aller Investmentfonds weltweit. Ein Indiz für die wachsende Bedeutung von Staatsfonds auf den internationalen Finanzmärkten ist vor allem das rasante Wachstum des Anlagevolumens und die steigende Zahl von Staatsfonds. So haben heute bereits 34 Nationen 47 Staatsfonds eingerichtet, weitere fünf sind nach Annahmen des SWF bereits in Planung durch Bolivien, Brasilien, Indien, Japan und Thailand. Kern prognostiziert ein Wachstum auf über 5 Billionen US-Dollar innerhalb der nächsten fünf Jahre und über 10 Billionen US-Dollar innerhalb der nächsten zehn Jahre, wobei DEGI sogar mit einem Anstieg auf 12 Billionen US-Dollar bereits in 2015 rechnet. Vermehrte Rohstoffverkäufe, steigende Rohstoffpreise, Handelsüberschüsse und zunehmende Währungstransaktionen sind Gründe dafür, warum immer mehr Länder ihre Gewinne zunehmend in renditeträchtigere Anlageklassen als Staatsanleihen anlegen. Dieses Wachstum, weitere Diversifikation und zunehmende Konzentration auf Rendite wird Investitionen in ein breites Spektrum von Anlageklassen seitens der Staatfonds zur Folge haben. Dazu gehören auch Immobilieninvestments weltweit. Laut Preqin investieren aktuell 62 % aller Staatsfonds in Immobilien. Dabei liegt der durchschnittliche Anteil von Immobilien am Gesamtportfolio zwischen 4 und 11 %. DEGI prognostiziert, dass Staatsfonds bis 2010 weltweit weitere 150 Mrd. US-Dollar in Immobilien investieren werden. Einige Staatsfonds, wie Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) oder Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) haben bereits Erfahrungen mit Immobilieninvestitionen in Europa. Allein in 2007 investierte GIC 1 Mrd. britische Pfund in Großbritannien, KIA ist bereits seit vielen Jahrzehnten auf Einkaufstour in europäischen Immobilienmärkten unterwegs und kaufte beispielsweise das mit 420.000 qm größte europäische Einkaufszentrum Cevahir Shopping Mall in Istanbul. Auch in Deutschland sind Staatsfonds mit Immobilieninvestitionen bereits punktuell in Erscheinung getreten. So investierte etwa im Jahr 2006 Singapurs GIC 300 Mio. Euro in zwei prominente Bürokomplexe in München. Auch beim Verkauf des rund 1,3 Mrd. Euro schweren Daimler-Portfolios am Potsdamer Platz befand sich ein Staatsfonds aus den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten unter den Bietern. Die Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) hat Interesse am Kauf von Schloss Salem am Bodensee angemeldet (Kirchner, 2008) und ADIA ist mit knapp 3 % an der deutschen Colonia Real Estate AG beteiligt. Für Staatsfonds und andere institutionelle Anleger erscheint der deutsche Immobilienmarkt aus verschiedenen Gründen interessant. Mit einem Gesamtvolumen von geschätzten 7,2 Billionen Euro zählt er zu den populärsten Immobilieninvestmentmärkten in Europa und weist aufgrund stabiler wirtschaftlicher Fundamentaldaten, einer gut ausgebauten Infrastruktur und vielseitiger Anlagemöglichkeiten sowohl sektoral als auch regional attraktive Investitionsbedingungen auf. Die Kaufpreise sind im Vergleich zu anderen prominenten europäischen Märkten, wie beispielsweise Paris oder London, relativ günstig, das Miet- und Wertsteigerungspotenzial aber hoch. Laut einer aktuellen Studie von ULI und PwC, für die mehr als 485 institutionelle Marktteilnehmer befragt wurden, gehören die Städte Hamburg, München und Frankfurt zu den zehn aussichtsreichsten und gleichzeitig zu den zehn risikoärmsten Investmentzentren in Europa. Trotz jüngst aufstrebender Immobilienmärkte wie Russland oder die Türkei zählt Deutschland neben Großbritannien und Frankreich weiterhin zu den drei favorisierten europäischen Ländern für direkte Immobilienanlagen. Infolge der US-Kreditkrise und den damit einhergehenden vorsichtigeren Kreditvergaben der Banken sind viele stark fremdkapitalausgestattete Investoren, die in den letzten Jahren einen Transaktionsboom auch im deutschen Immobilienmarkt hervorgerufen haben, zum Rückzug gezwungen. Dieser Effekt dürfte einen Rückgang des Transaktionsvolumens in Deutschland bedeuten, gleichzeitig aber auch ein verstärktes Interesse eigenkapitalstarker Investoren – wie Staatsfonds – die zuvor von den opportunistischen und stark fremdfinanzierten Investoren regelmäßig überboten wurden. Für Staatsfonds, die bis dato nicht am deutschen Immobilienmarkt aktiv sind, hier aber zukünftig investieren wollen, stellt sich die Frage nach dem richtigen Vorgehen. Welche Optionen zum Markteintritt mit Immobilieninvestments in Deutschland gibt es, und welche dieser Optionen sollte(n) gewählt werden, um die angestrebten Renditeziele unter Berücksichtigung der besonderen Strukturen und gegebenenfalls Restriktionen von Staatsfonds, des geforderten Zeithorizonts und der Risikobereitschaft zu erreichen? Dies insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund, dass meist hohe Kapitalvolumina investiert werden sollen, Zielmarkt und Marktteilnehmer dem Investor aber weitgehend unbekannt sind. Es sind Entscheidungen zwischen der direkten Immobilienanlage und verschiedenen indirekten Anlageformen zu treffen. Erscheint eine Investition in indirekte Immobilienanlagen interessant, hat er die Wahl zwischen verschiedenen Produktkategorien, wie beispielsweise offene und geschlossene Immobilienfonds. Entscheidet sich ein Staatsfonds für den Markteintritt mit direkten Immobilienanlagen, stehen ihm verschiedene Optionen für das Vorgehen zur Verfügung. Sucht er sich beispielsweise einen kompetenten Partner vor Ort? Oder sollte er geeignete Investitionsobjekte eigenständig auswählen und den Transaktionsprozess selbst durchführen? Nicht zuletzt stellt sich die Frage des Immobilienmanagements nach dem Erwerb. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von Markteintrittsoptionen für ausländische Staatsfonds, die sich zukünftig mit Investitionen am deutschen Immobilienmarkt engagieren wollen. Unter Optionen im Sinne dieser Arbeit sollen Handlungsalternativen verstanden werden, die die Möglichkeit bieten, sich frei zwischen ihnen zu entscheiden. Die möglichen Optionen werden hinsichtlich ihrer Vor- und Nachteile sowie ihrer spezifischen Eignung für Staatsfonds analysiert und bewertet, um daraus Handlungsempfehlungen für Staatsfonds abzuleiten. Dazu wird im Anschluss an die Einleitung in Kapitel 2 zunächst das grundlegende Geschäftskonzept von Immobilieninvestitionen als Kapitalanlage vorgestellt, wobei sowohl auf die spezielle Charakterisierung von Immobilienanlagen eingegangen wird als auch auf die verschiedenen Investorengruppen und die Ziele, die diese mit einer Immobilieninvestition verfolgen. Zudem werden die wesentlichen Besonderheiten von Immobilienmärkten sowie deren Auswirkungen auf internationale Immobilieninvestments kurz betrachtet. Darauf folgt eine Darstellung der direkten Immobilienanlage sowie der wesentlichen indirekten Anlageformen, in der die jeweiligen Eigenschaften sowie Vor- und Nachteile herausgearbeitet werden. Abschließend werden die verschiedenen Rendite/Risiko-Profile der Anlageformen betrachtet und der Prozess der Immobilienanlage beschrieben. Kapitel 3 widmet sich den möglichen Markteintrittsstrategien. Basierend auf den aus dem internationalen Marketing bekannten Strategien werden mögliche Handlungsoptionen für ausländische Immobilieninvestoren abgeleitet und dargestellt. Kapitel 4 befasst sich mit Staatsfonds. Hier werden zunächst Herkunft, Wesen und Motive von Staatsfonds untersucht. Anschließend erfolgt eine Analyse der Anlagestrategien, die Staatsfonds verfolgen, sowie ein kurzer Abriss der möglichen Auswirkungen, die die Überarbeitung des Außenwirtschaftsgesetztes der deutschen Bundesregierung auf künftige Investitionen von Staatsfonds in Deutschland haben könnte. Abschließend wird die Assetklasse Immobilien in Staatsfonds-Portfolien betrachtet, um daraus Schlussfolgerungen für künftige Immobilienengagements ziehen zu können. Aufbauend auf diesen Grundlagen werden in Kapitel 5 - das den Kern dieser Arbeit darstellt - die möglichen Handlungsoptionen für den Markteintritt mit Immobilieninvestitionen in Deutschland auf ihre spezifische Eignung für Staatsfonds überprüft. Zu diesem Zweck werden auf Basis der Erkenntnisse aus Kapitel 4 zunächst die Anlageziele und -restriktionen von Staatsfonds definiert. Die direkte Immobilienanlage wird der indirekten Immobilienanlage grundsätzlich gegenübergestellt, um zu erkennen, ob - aufgrund dieser Ziele - für Staatsfonds eine der beiden Anlageformen der anderen grundlegend vorzuziehen ist. Es folgt eine Eignungsprüfung der sich daraus ergebenden Optionen anhand von Bewertungskriterien, die entsprechend ihrer spezifischen Bedeutung für Staatsfonds auf Basis der definierten Anlageziele und -restriktionen ausgewählt und gewichtet werden. Die so getroffenen Aussagen werden mittels eines Scoring-Modells überprüft. Das Ergebnis ist eine Auswahl von Anlageoptionen, die für Staatsfonds empfehlenswert sind. Den Abschluss dieser Arbeit bildet das Fazit in Kapitel 6.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: InhaltsverzeichnisIII AbkürzungsverzeichnisVI AbbildungsverzeichnisVII 1.Einleitung1 1.1Ausgangssituation und Problemstellung1 1.2Ziel der Arbeit und Vorgehensweise3 2.Immobilieninvestitionen5 2.1Immobilien als Kapitalanlage5 2.1.1Investorengruppen5 2.1.2Charakterisierung5 2.1.3Ziele6 2.1.4Besonderheiten von Immobilienmärkten und internationalen Immobilieninvestments7 2.2Anlageformen8 2.2.1Direkte Immobilienanlage8 2.2.1.1Vorteile8 2.2.1.2Nachteile9 2.2.1.3Risikodiversifikation9 2.2.1.4Performance10 2.2.1.5Asset Management10 2.2.2Indirekte Immobilienanlage11 2.2.2.1Vorteile11 2.2.2.2Nachteile11 2.2.2.3Immobilienpublikumsfonds12 2.2.2.4Immobilien-Spezialfonds13 2.2.2.5Geschlossene Immobilienfonds14 2.2.2.6Immobilienaktien15 2.2.2.7Opportunity Funds16 2.3Der Anlagestil18 2.4Der Anlageprozess19 2.4.1Strategische Phase19 2.4.2Operative Phase21 3.Markteintrittsstrategien21 3.1Unmittelbare Investition22 3.2Allianz / Kooperation23 3.2.1Nicht-vertragliche Kooperation und Contractual Joint Venture25 3.2.2Equity Joint Venture26 3.3Merger Acquisition27 3.4Greenfield Investment29 4.Staatsfonds30 4.1Herkunft, Wesen und Motive31 4.2Anlagestrategien33 4.3Intervention der deutschen Bundesregierung35 4.4Assetklasse Immobilien35 5.Ableitung und Prüfung der Markteintrittsoptionen für Staatsfonds36 5.1Die Wahl der Markteintrittsstrategie36 5.1.1Anlageziele und Anlagerestriktionen von Staatsfonds37 5.1.2Direkte versus indirekte Immobilienanlage37 5.2Optionen für den Markteintritt mit indirekten Immobilienanlagen40 5.2.1Kriterien für die Wahl der indirekten Anlageform41 5.2.2Eignungsprüfung der Optionen anhand der Kriterien42 5.2.2.1Scoring-Modell43 5.2.2.2Sensitivitätsanalyse und Fazit44 5.3Optionen für den Markteintritt mit direkten Immobilienanlagen45 5.3.1Definition der zu prüfenden Markteintrittsstrategien45 5.3.2Kriterien für die Wahl der Markteintrittsstrategie46 5.3.3Eignungsprüfung der Optionen anhand der Kriterien48 5.3.3.1Scoring-Modell52 5.3.3.2Sensitivitätsanalyse und Fazit54 5.4Zusammenfassung der präferierten Optionen55 5.5Handlungsempfehlung58 6.Fazit59 Anhang72Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 3.1, Unmittelbare Investition: Bei der unmittelbaren Investition tritt der Immobilieninvestor direkt an Verkäufer von Immobilien und Immobilienportfolien oder deren Zwischenhändler (z.B. Makler) heran. Dies kann zum Beispiel über ein Team geschehen, das nach Deutschland entsendet wird, um geeignete Investitionsobjekte zu identifizieren und anschließend den Erwerbsprozess durchzuführen. Nachdem die Investitionen getätigt wurden, zieht sich der Investor - zumindest für die Haltedauer bzw. bis zu dem Zeitpunkt, an dem weitere Immobilien erworben werden sollen - operativ aus dem Markt zurück. Zwingend erforderlich bei dieser Alternative ist die Beauftragung eines externen Asset-, Property- und Facility Managements vor Ort, während das Management auf Portfolioebene vom Investor im Heimatland geführt wird. Die Einbindung eines Asset Managers - der über eine Fee vergütet wird - impliziert eine Kooperation gemäß Abschnitt 3.2. Da es sich bei dieser Kooperation aber um das Management der Immobilien nach dem Erwerb handelt und nicht um eine Maßnahme, die zum Markteintritt gewählt wird, ist die unmittelbare Investition dennoch als eigene Markteintrittsstrategie anzusehen. Kennzeichnend für diese Strategie ist, dass der Investor völlig autark und zudem flexibel bleibt. Der Investor hat die volle Kontrolle und Entscheidungsautonomie über sein Investitionsportfolio. Ein dauerhaftes personelles Engagement am Markt ist nicht erforderlich, somit ist die Veränderung der Investitionsstrategie oder gar ein vollständiger Marktaustritt - zumindest theoretisch - jederzeit möglich. Allerdings stellt die Komplexität der Immobilienmärkte für diese Form des Markteintritts eine große Herausforderung dar. Zum einen liegt die Problematik grundsätzlich im Zugang zu Informationen über zum Verkauf stehende Portfolien oder Einzelobjekte, daneben besteht das Problem der fehlenden Marktkenntnis generell, um die zur Verfügung stehenden Investitionsoptionen adäquat beurteilen zu können. Eine intensive Marktanalyse, verbunden mit einer aufwändigen Informationsbeschaffung (auch im Hinblick auf rechtliche und steuerliche Aspekte der Immobilieninvestition) ist unerlässlich. Zudem liegt der Aufwand der Verhandlungsführung von Beginn an beim Investor, ebenso der Prozess der Transaktionsdurchführung. Sowohl die Phase der Informationsbeschaffung und Suche nach geeigneten Anlageoptionen, als auch der für die Umsetzung erforderliche Zeithorizont behindern einen schnellen Markteintritt. Kapitel 3.2, Allianz / Kooperation: Die Begriffe Kooperation bzw. Allianz werden in der Literatur unterschiedlich eingegrenzt und definiert. Zudem existiert eine Vielzahl weiterer Termini, die häufig synonym verwendet oder auch voneinander abgegrenzt werden, wie beispielsweise strategische Allianz, Joint Venture, Netzwerk oder auch Strategic Partnership. Die Verfasserin beschränkt sich im Folgenden zunächst übergreifend auf die Bezeichnungen Allianz und Kooperation, die synonym verwendet werden. Zur Begriffseingrenzung im Sinne dieser Arbeit erscheint die Definition von Morschett geeignet, der sich hierbei auf Spekman et al. bezieht. Demnach sind Allianzen im Allgemeinen enge, unter Umständen langfristige, Vereinbarungen zwischen zwei oder mehr Parteien, in denen Ressourcen, Wissen und Fähigkeiten zwischen Partnern geteilt oder gemeinsam eingebracht werden mit der Zielsetzung, die Wettbewerbsposition jedes Partners zu verbessern. Ziel einer solchen Kooperation ist die Erschließung von für den Markteintritt erforderlichen Ressourcen, die im eigenen Unternehmen nicht - oder nicht ausreichend - vorhanden sind, wie etwa Kapitalbedarf, Know-how oder Managementkapazität. Die Erschließung neuer Märkte soll damit sowohl erleichtert, als auch beschleunigt werden. Die Zusammenarbeit basiert dabei auf individuell geregelten Vereinbarungen, so dass eine größtmögliche Flexibilität und unternehmerische Unabhängigkeit der Partner gewahrt bleibt. Folglich kennzeichnen sich Kooperationen durch rechtliche und (partiell) wirtschaftliche Unabhängigkeit der beteiligten Partner, die ihr Verhalten zugunsten einer besseren Zielerreichung als bei individuellem Vorgehen koordinieren. Nach der Wertschöpfungsstufe lassen sich horizontale, vertikale und laterale Kooperationen unterscheiden. Stammen die kooperierenden Unternehmen sowohl aus der gleichen Branche, als auch aus der gleichen Wertschöpfungsstufe (Wettbewerber), spricht man von einer horizontalen Kooperation. Stimmt die Branche der Partner überein, aber stammen sie aus verschiedenen Wertschöpfungsstufen (Lieferanten und Kunden), besteht eine vertikale Kooperation. Eine laterale Kooperation liegt vor, wenn sich zwei Unternehmen aus unterschiedlichen Branchen zusammenschließen. Grundsätzlich sind Kooperationen in allen drei Ausprägungen möglich und vorstellbar. In erster Linie erscheint aber eine vertikale Kooperation für ausländische Investoren interessant. Zum Beispiel könnte der Investor sich mit einem in Deutschland etablierten Immobilienmakler- oder -consultingunternehmen zusammenschließen, um dessen Markt-Know-how und Erfahrung zu nutzen. Der Partner wiederum würde vom Auftragsvolumen des Investors profitieren. Ebenso vorstellbar wäre eine Kooperation mit einem Asset Management-Unternehmen in Deutschland, das bereits vor Erwerb eingeschaltet wird, um den gesamten Anlageprozess als lokaler Marktkenner und Real Estate Professional zu begleiten. Die Vorteile des Markteintritts über Allianzen bzw. Kooperationen liegen insbesondere im Erhalt der wirtschaftlichen Selbständigkeit des Investors. Ebenso wie eine Fusion oder eine Akquisition ermöglicht die Kooperation dennoch einen raschen Zugang zu den benötigten wettbewerbsrelevanten Ressourcen wie Marktwissen, generelle Kenntnis des Umfeldes und Zugriff auf lokale Führungskräfte der Top-Ebene, die gemäß Chisnall die wesentlichen Motive für einen Markteintritt über Kooperationen oder Mergers + Acquisitions darstellen. Der Anteil redundanter Ressourcen ist dabei wiederum erheblich geringer. Entsprechend ist auch der erforderliche Integrationsaufwand aufgrund des niedrigeren Integrationsgrades geringer als bei einer Fusion oder Akquisition. Zudem besteht die Gefahr eines unerwünschten Zugriffs des lokalen Partners auf internes Know-how des Investors. Seine Kontrolllegitimation ist insofern eingeschränkt, als er nicht über die uneingeschränkten Eigentumsrechte an den benötigten Ressourcen verfügt. Zudem ist die Identifikation eines geeigneten Kooperationspartners aufgrund der bestehenden Informationsdefizite des Investors mit zeit- und kostenverursachendem Aufwand und Unsicherheiten verbunden. Eine Kooperation kann weiterhin zu Koordinationsproblemen und Interessenskonflikten mit dem Partner führen. Insbesondere ist hier das Principal-Agent-Problem zu nennen. Auch soziokulturelle Unterschiede der Beteiligten können zu Schwierigkeiten bei Kooperationen führen. Wie Abbildung 3-1 verdeutlicht, lässt sich auf Basis der Kapitalausstattung eine Unterscheidung in nicht-vertragliche Kooperationen und Contractual JVs sowie das Equity JV vornehmen. Nachfolgend werden diese Formen der Kooperation kurz voneinander abgegrenzt und diskutiert. Kapitel 3.2.1, Nicht-vertragliche Kooperation und Contractual Joint Venture: Grundsätzlich sind Allianzen auch ohne vertragliche Bindung denkbar und kommen in der Praxis durchaus vor. Die Verfasserin schließt sich hier der Auffassung von Lubritz an, dass komplexe intensive Unternehmensbeziehungen eine vertragliche Ausgestaltung voraussetzen. Bereits die einfache Beauftragung eines Maklerunternehmens zur Suche geeigneter Anlageobjekte würde eine vertraglich fixierte – wenn auch in der Regel zeitlich begrenzte - Kooperation darstellen und wäre somit als Contractual JV einzuordnen. Deshalb wird auf eine weitere Diskussion der nichtvertraglichen Kooperation in der vorliegenden Arbeit verzichtet. Als Contractual JVs werden vertraglich fixierte Allianzen bezeichnet. Im Gegensatz zu einem Equity JV beinhalten diese aber keine Kapitalbeteiligung durch Gründung eines Gemeinschaftsunternehmens mit eigener Rechtspersönlichkeit. Diese Form der Kooperation bietet insbesondere den Vorteil des geringen Kapitalinvestments und folglich auch eines geringen Kapitalrisikos. Dennoch können die Wettbewerbsvorteile des lokalen Partners (z.B. Image, Marktkenntnis und Akquisitionsnetzwerk) genutzt werden, auch wenn die Autonomie auf beiden Seiten beibehalten wird. Ein positives Image des Partners kann sich auf die Reputation des ausländischen Investors im deutschen Markt übertragen. Ebenso birgt eine Kooperation natürlich das umgekehrte Risiko eines negativen Imagetransfers. Entsprechend der unmittelbaren Investition ist keine langfristige Kapitalbindung und personelles Engagement notwendig. Die stetige Option zum Marktaustritt oder einem Strategiewechsel ist dadurch gegeben. Kapitel 3.2.2, Equity Joint Venture: Das Equity JV ist - im Gegensatz zur nicht-vertraglichen Kooperation und dem Contractual JV - eine Form der Direktinvestition, da ein direkter Kapitaleinsatz des Investors geleistet wird. Weitere Formen der Direktinvestition stellen Mergers + Acquisitions sowie das Greenfield Investment dar (siehe Abbildung 3-1). Allen drei Formen gemein ist ein erhöhter finanzieller und personeller Ressourcen- sowie Informations- und Kommunikationsaufwand. Hohe 'Startup Costs', lange Amortisationsdauer sowie die Desinvestitionsproblematik im Falle eines wirtschaftlichen Misserfolgs des Auslandsengagements machen Direktinvestitionen zu einer Markteintrittsstrategie mit einem hohen wirtschaftlichen Risiko. Das Equity JV lässt sich definieren als eine auf Kapitalbeteiligungen und der Teilung von Geschäftsführung und unternehmerischen Risiko beruhende, vertraglich festgelegte und dauerhafte Kooperation unter Gründung einer rechtlich selbständigen Gemeinschaftsunternehmung. Die kooperierenden Unternehmen erhalten dabei ihre individuellen Unternehmensidentitäten. Das Risiko beider Partner wird dadurch minimiert und die Verantwortung geteilt. Je nach Ausmaß der Beteiligung des ausländischen Investors unterscheidet man in Minoritäts-JV (bei einer Minderheitsbeteiligung des ausländischen Investors), Paritäts-JV (bei Gleich-beteiligung beider Partner) und Majoritäts-JV (bei Mehrheitsbeteiligung des ausländischen Investors). Insbesondere das Paritäts-JV birgt dabei das Risiko, dass es zu Problemen hinsichtlich der Entscheidungsfindung kommen kann, was die Flexibilität und Reaktionsfähigkeit des JV beeinträchtigt. Solche Probleme können beispielsweise aufgrund unterschiedlicher Vorstellungen über Zielsetzungen, Investitionsverhalten und Gewinnverteilung oder Geschäftsmentalität und Führungsverhalten bestehen. Ein Minoritäts-JV schränkt den Investor von vorneherein erheblich in seiner Entscheidungsmacht ein. Eine detaillierte Vertragsgestaltung im Vorfeld kann diesen Problemen entgegenwirken. Von Vorteil bei allen Formen des Equity JV kann die Wahrnehmung des JV als nationales Unternehmen sein, was mit der Konsequenz möglicher Imagevorteile im Gastland verbunden sein kann. Ausländische Investoren - unter anderem Staatsfonds - genießen nicht selten den Ruf einer Heuschrecke und werden teilweise mit Skepsis betrachtet. Die Gründung eines Equity JV würde der Gründung eines neuen Unternehmens ohne etwaige Altlasten entsprechen. Da jedoch davon auszugehen ist, dass die Partner, die hinter diesem JV stehen, den relevanten Marktteilnehmern bekannt sind, ist dieser Effekt des Equity JV in Frage zu stellen. Negative Auswirkungen auf die Akquisition von Objekten sind zudem ohnehin nicht zu erwarten, da das Image keinen Einfluss auf die Entscheidung eines Verkäufers haben dürfte. Höchstens im Verhältnis zu den Mietern der Objekte und bei Neuvermietungen könnte sich aus einem negativen Image möglicherweise ein nachteiliger Effekt ergeben.

One hundred per cent of the natural units of analysis will continue to be negatively affected, with a concomitant decrease in natures contributions to people, given current trends (business as usual), though the magnitude and exact mechanism of the individual drivers will vary by driver and unit of analysis (established but incomplete){5.4}. For example, tropical moist and dry forest and coastal mangroves will continue to exhibit a decline due to land use change regardless of the scenarios considered, but different local factors (agriculturalization and urbanization, respectively) will be involved (well established) {5.4.1, 5.4.11}. Additionally, some drivers will affect units of analysis differently. Empirical evidence indicates differential effects of climate change: boreal forest is extending northward {5.4.2}, while tundra is diminishing in land area (established but incomplete) {5.4.3}. Thus, some drivers, and their relative roles, will need to be further refined on a local scale and with respect to their proximate factors.2. Multiple drivers will act in synergy and further produce biodiversity loss and impact nature?s contributions to people in most of the units of analysis for the Americas (established but incomplete){5.4}. Climate change, combined with other drivers, is predicted to account for an increasingly larger proportion of biodiversity loss in the future, in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems {5.3}. Forest fragmentation, climate change and industrial development increase risk of biodiversity and nature?s contributions to people loss i.e. dry forest unit of analysis {5.4.1.2}. Predictions on invasive species and climate change indicates an increase in habitable areas and their potential impacts on different units of analysis {5.3}.3. Changes in temperature, precipitation regime and extreme climate events are predicted to impact all units of analysis in the Americas (well established) {5.4}. Climate change and the potential impacts on tropical dry forests by changing the frequency of wildfires; change in forest structure and functional composition in the Amazon tropical moist forest; extreme drought events changing nature?s contributions to people in the Amazon region; insect outbreaks and changes in albedo are predicted to significantly impact temperate, boreal and tundra units of analysis, affecting society and indigenous communities and well-being {5.4}.4. Thresholds, or tipping points (conditions resulting in rapid and potentially irreversible changes) may have already been exceeded for some ecosystems and are likely for others (established but incomplete). For instance, it is considered more likely than not that such a threshold has already been passed in the cryosphere with respect to summer sea ice (established but incomplete) {5.4.12}. Model simulations indicate changes in forest structure and species distribution in the Amazon forest in response to global warming and change in precipitation patterns (forest die-back) (established but incomplete) {5.4.1}. So too, a 4oC increase in global temperatures is predicted to likely cause widespread die off of boreal forest due to greater susceptibility to disease {5.4.2} and global temperature increases may have already started persistent thawing of the permafrost {5.4.3}. Under 4°C warming, widespread coral reef mortality is expected with significant impacts on coral reef ecosystems {5.4.11}. Sea surface water temperature increase will cause a reduction of sea grass climatic niche: those populations under seawater surface temperature thresholds higher than the temperature ranges required by the species could become extinct by 2100 with concomitant loss of ecosystem services.IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.15415. Changes in nature and nature?s contributions to people in most units of analysis are increasingly driven by causal interactions between distant places (i.e. telecouplings) (well established) {5.6.3}, thus scenarios and models that incorporate telecouplings will better inform future policy decisions. Nature and nature?s contributions to people in telecoupled systems can be affected negatively or positively by distant causal interactions. Provision of food and medicine from wild organisms in temperate and tropical grasslands, savannas and forests of South America is being dramatically reduced due to land-use changes driven by the demand of agricultural commodities (e.g. soybeans) mainly from Europe and China. Conservation of insectivorous migratory bats in Mexico benefits pest control in agroecosystems of North America, resulting in increased yields and reduced pesticide costs. Trade policies and international agreements will thus have an increasingly strong effect on environmental outcomes in telecoupled systems.6. Policy interventions have resulted in significant land use changes at the local and regional scales and will continue to do so through 2050. These policies have affected nature?s contributions to people both positively and negatively, and provide an opportunity to manage trade-offs among nature?s contributions to people (well established) {5.4}. Land use changes are now mainly driven by high crop demand, big hydropower plans, rapid urban growth and result in a continued loss of grasslands {5.4.4, 5.4.5}. However, strategies for establishing conservation units have helped in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from the period of 2004 to 2011 (well established) {5.4.1}. Similarly, wetland protection policies and regulation have helped reduce the conversion of wetlands in North America {5.4.7}. Policies based on command and control measures may be limited in providing effective reduction in ecosystem loss and should be complemented with policies acknowledging multiple values {5.6.3}.7. Policy interventions at vastly differing scales (from national to local) lead to successful outcomes in mitigating impacts to biodiversity (established but incomplete){5.4}. For instance, long-established governmental protections of wetlands in North America have significantly slowed and may have stopped wetland loss based on acreage {5.4.7}. In South America, where mangrove loss continues at a rate of one to two per cent, different stakeholders such as local communities and/or governments have been successful in protecting mangroves based on empowerment and shared interests in their preservation {5.4.11}.8. Pressures to nature are projected to increase by 2050, negatively affecting biodiversity as indicated by a potential reduction of the mean species abundance index. However, the magnitude of the pressures by 2050 are expected to be less under transition pathways to sustainability in comparison to the business as usual scenario (established but incomplete), {5.5}. The Global Biodiversity model projected that under the business as usual scenario mean species abundance had decreased in the Americas by approximately 30 per cent by 2010 compared to its values prior to European settlement of the New World, with historical losses primarily attributed to land transformation to agricultural uses. Using the Global Biodiversity model, there is an additional projected loss of 9.6 per cent by 2050, primarily attributed to some additional land use changes , and especially to climate change, which will steadily increase relative to other drivers considered in the model. However, under the transition pathways to sustainability of global technologies, decentralised solutions, and consumption change pathways, the projected losses are 6 per cent, 5 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively,IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.1542achieving a relative improvement of approximately 30 per cent to 50 per cent compared to the business as usual scenario. Under these pathways, climate change mitigation, the expansion of protected areas and the recovery of abandoned lands would significantly contribute to reducing biodiversity loss.9. Participative scenarios have proven to be a successful tool for envisioning potential futures and pathways and to embrace and integrate multiple and sometime conflicting values and their role in promoting bottom-up decision making in the face of futures uncertainties (well established) {5.3}. The use of participative approaches to develop scenarios has increased during recent years in the Americas. The inclusion of different stakeholders and their knowledges in the process of constructing potential futures has promoted a better understanding of the complexity of the social-ecological systems in which they are embedded. This has enhanced co-learning processes between all actors involved, even those normally under-represented in decision-making activities. As a result, several participative scenario exercises have motivated community-based solutions and local governance initiatives all pointing towards the development of adaptive management strategies {5.3}.10. Pathways that consider changes in societal options will lead to less pressure to nature (established but incomplete) {5.6.3}. An example is the indirect impact that shifts in urban dietary preferences have on agricultural production and expansion, and food options that are expected to continue growing into the future. Therefore, not only is there a strong connection between urbanization and economic growth, but also between affluence (and urban preferences) and the global displacement of land use particularly from high-income to low-income countries.11. Available local studies informing regional futures of nature and natures benefit to people do not allow scalability as of yet (well established) {5.3}. The challenge in expanding the findings from local studies resides in the fact that a number of comparable local studies are still not available. Information is scattered throughout the region by the use of different units, methods and scales, which prevents a local-to-regional generalization. The list of nature indicators used in studies at local scales is large and heterogeneous (well established). Even for the same indicator (e.g. biodiversity), different metrics are used (e.g. species-area curve, mean species abundance) {5.5}. In other cases, multiple indicators are used to describe different aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this latter case, synergies and trade-offs are explicitly mentioned with a clear pattern in which increasing the provision of some indicators result in the detriment of others {5.3}. For example, agriculture expansion leading to loss in biodiversity illustrates a common trend from local studies expected to continue into the future.12. There is a significant research gap in the development of models and scenarios that integrate drivers, nature, natures contributions to people and good quality of life (well established){5.3}. Models and scenarios can be powerful tools to integrate and synthesize the complex dynamics of coupled human and nature systems, and to project their plausible behaviors into the future. Most existing models and scenarios focus on the link between drivers and its impacts on nature. Few cases exist in which models or scenarios integrate the relationships between changes in nature and changes in natures contributions to people and good quality of life {5.3}. Inter-and trans-disciplinary modeling efforts will be required to address this research gap {5.3}. ; Fil: Klatt, Brian. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ometto, Jean Pierre. National Institute For Space Research; Brasil ; Fil: García Marquez, Jaime. Universität zu Berlin; Alemania ; Fil: Baptiste, María Piedad. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Instituto Alexander von Humboldt. Independent Consultant; Canadá ; Fil: Acebey, Sandra Verónica. No especifíca; ; Fil: Guezala, María Claudia. Inter-american Institute For Global Change Research; Perú ; Fil: Mastrangelo, Matias Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina ; Fil: Pengue, Walter Alberto. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina ; Fil: Blanco, Mariela Verónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Laborales; Argentina ; Fil: Gadda, Tatiana. Universidade Tecnológica Federal Do Paraná; Brasil ; Fil: Ramírez, Wilson. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Agard, John. University Of West Indies; Trinidad y Tobago ; Fil: Valle, Mireia. Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí; Ecuador

International audience ; The collective work presents the study and publicationof excavated materials of an archaeologically known twoapsechurch from the first half of the 9th to the first half ofthe 10th century at the top of the Tuzluk Hill in the Yedi Evlerarea, Crimean Peninsula, near the village of Semidvorie(Alushta, Crimea, Ukraine). This sanctuary was linked tothe large agricultural and pottery producing settlement thatexisted in this economically developed and populous regionin the second half of the 8th/9th - first half of the 10th century.The settlement was situated 150-250 meters to the east andsoutheast from the church. Just 350 meters southeast fromthe church was a medieval cemetery of the "Suuksu" typeof the 7th – 8th / 9th (?) centuries existed which was left by thepopulation usually identified as Crimean Goths tribes.In 2007, an area of around 96 m2 was investigated andchurch ruins and surrounding cultural layer were studied.The stratigraphical analysis managed to identify here 44archaeological layers or contexts, one medieval grave withdouble burials, and a Bronze Age cultual place. The studyof ruins shows that the sanctuary was rebuilt multiple times.The church consisted of two communicating compartmentsof different sizes. As for characteristic features, the southernmain apse is bigger in size than the northern one, andthere was an entrance in the main part of the church throughthe northern compartment as well as two other doorwaysfrom the west and from the south. The western portal of thenorthern compartment was completely open and no traces ofwall masonry here were attested. In contrast to the southerncompartment, the foundation of the northern part was cutin natural. The three-layer masonry wall was made of localpoor faceted rectangular stones of various sizes. For buildingmortar, mud solutions with clay loam as a binder elementwere mostly used. The inside of the southern churchwalls was plastered with lime mortar, which in some placesis preserved in situ, and painted with red linear and geometricpatterns including letters or even inscriptions that aretoday illegible. The roof likely had two slopes covered bylocally made tiles of different types.The overall dimensions of the church were: width – 5.60-5.70 m, length - 8.50 m. The thickness of the wall was about0.7 m. Structure remains are preserved to a height of 0.80 m.Both apses have shoulders connecting apsidal semicirclesand walls. The external diameter of the southern apse is 2.13m. The internal dimension of the southern main compartmentis 2.34×4.15 м. The external diameter of the northernapse is 1.20 m, while the internal is 0.63 m. The width in thewestern part of the northern compartment is 1.34 m, and inthe eastern part it is reduced to 1.26 m. The church was orientedto the northeast. The azimuth of its central axis is 47°,which roughly corresponds to the azimuth point of sunriseduring the summer solstice for Crimean latitude.SUMMARYIn the first chapter, written by V. Kirilko, the buildinghistory of the church and its architectural peculiarities arepresented. The double apse sanctuary belongs to the relativelyrare type of churches of the Middle Byzantine periodthat could be described as a two-apse church with unequalapses of different sizes. G. Dimitrokallis (1976), the authorof the most representative corpus of double apse byzantinesanctuaries, classified them as "pseudobiconques." Thereare some examples of double apse churches in the Crimea(Sotera near Alushta, Sudak, Funa near Luchistoe settlement,Chembalo fortress in Balaklava). Yet, these sanctuariesmainly date back to the 14th century, with the one exceptionbeing the Sotera church that belonged to the periodof the 8th-10th century, and none of them provides an exactparallel to the church of Yedi Evler.During the short period of its history, the church wascompletely rebuilt at least once. The first building periodinvolved the creation of the main southern church with theapse and the three entrances from the west, south and north.It is highly likely that the church was intentionally conceivedby priests, ktitores or the Christian community as a doubleapse and two-part building. Immediately after the perfectionof the southern church, the additional northern compartmentwith open western portal and separate apse was added. Thispart of the church was connected to the main church via aspecial doorway in the wall dividing the compartment thatpreviously served as the northern entrance to the southernchurch. In fact, the second building period is distinguishedonly theoretically as a final step in the construction of thechurch. The chronology of the first two periods of the building'shistory, based mainly on the study of pottery and ceramicmaterials from the complex, dates back to the firsthalf of the 9th century, or more precisely the second-third tothe middle of the century.After a short period the church was completely destroyed,most likely due to inadequate construction worksor an earthquake. The third building period is determined as860-880s, when the sanctuary was rebuilt and reconstructed.After reconstruction, the northern compartment was buriedby earth and ruined stones and preserved according tocanon law practices for unused sacral Christian objects. Inthe third building period, the northern part was not active asa liturgical zone. The sanctuary became an ordinary ruralByzantine one-apse, one-nave church. A narthex was constructedin the eastern part of the sanctuary. The doorwaybetween the southern and northern parts was closed off bywall masonry. During the third building period, only twoentrances — the southern and western — were still active.The main entrance was the southern one, which was addedby a wooden apprentice. After the second deterioration ofthe church in the first half of the 10th century, no more renovations were carried out. The ruins were reused by the localpopulation for ordinary purposes no earlier than in the secondhalf of the 14th -15th century, as pottery fragments fromthe ruins show. Most probably, the narthex and apse wereused at this time as a temporary living structure in what isregarded in the chapter as the fourth building period. Theauthor proposes graphical reconstruction of the sanctuaryaccording to fourth building periods and shows architecturalparallels to this building among contemporary churches ofthe Northern Caucasus and Minor Asia.Chapter two, author I. Teslenko, deals with the stratigraphyof the site and description of archaeological layers.The analysis of excavated materials provided in the chapterallowed for the presentation of all steps of anthropogenicactivity on the Tuzluk Hill from the Bronze Age to moderntimes. The description of materials is organized by archaeologicallayers, with general characteristics of different findsincluded. Every layer inside and outside the church is attributedto a corresponding building period. A hypothesison the formation of each layer and its causes are also given.The most important layers are linked to two dilapidationsof the church, and some of them are attributed to regular liturgicallife and different rituals practiced in and around thesanctuary. Several layers may be left from construction andreconstruction works. A detailed description of the archaeologicalfinds and a cultural and liturgical interpretation ofstructures, layers and bones are given in the next chapters.In the third chapter, I. Teslenko provides an analysis ofceramic and pottery materials from the church. During theexcavation, 2,589 fragments of roof tiles and kalypters (55%of all ceramic materials), 637 fragments of kitchen and tablewares (13.5%) and 1,485 pieces of pithoi and amphora (31.5%) were recorded. Among them 9 intact rectangular rooftiles that were still preserved and 5 kalypters can be fragmentarilyreconstructed. Several tiles have a constructionsign or craftsmen marks as tridents and Greek letters «λ»,«ρ», «π» «В», «V». A theoretical estimation on the numberof tiles, including kalypters for covering the roof, has beendone. The amount is between 374 tiles / 376 kalypters and396 tiles / 397 kalypters in the second and third buildingperiod respectively. Accordingly, in the second period theweight of the roof was about 3893-3897 kg, for the thirdperiod – 4118-4122 kg.Nearly all excavated ceramic materials came from localproduction. The author lists the characteristics and providesa description of clay pottery and ceramic items, which showtwo craftsmen traditions. The first one emerged locally andis characteristic of primitive treatments, the use of a handpottery wheel and unsatisfactory baking. The second craftsmentradition reflects well-organized, high-technology commodityproduction oriented on the external wine trade. It ispresented specially by amphora. Today, there are more than40 known pottery workshops with high-technology kilns inthe southern part of the Crimean peninsula. Such a potterytradition was most likely brought here in the 8th-9th centuryfrom Minor Asia. The author discusses chronologies ofvarious types of local pottery, particularly amphora, and hemakes comparisons to groups of amphora known from differentregions of the Byzantine World. Local amphoras arepresented by so-called "Black Sea type" (second variant),which was produced until the mid-10th century, according tothe author. At the archaeological site, only two fragments ofimported pottery have been recorded: the bottom of a highneck brown clay jug with wide flat handles, no earlier thanthe mid-9th century, and a fragment of Glazed White Ware II,according to J.W. Hayes, from 10th century Constantinople.The kitchen pottery which were in use in Khazar kaganateis also absent. Ceramic finds in the church date back mainlyto the end of 8th-10th century; only several fragments of twored glazed sgraffito bowls and one fragment of a brown unglazedpot come from the 14th-15th century.The fourth chapter presented by I. Teslenko and A.Musin describes and studies the collection of glass lampfragments (342 items) that are partially not indentified.The bulk (91%) of the lamps comes from the third buildingperiod and is concentrated near the southern entrance tothe church, where the liturgy should start. Precisely withinthe same zone, micropieces of flint made by strike-a-lightfor making "liturgical fire" were recorded, and kitchen andbone remains from community meals were also attested.Glass lamps are presented by two main groups: polycandelonor beaker-shaped lamps with hollow stems, and singlelamps with handles on the rim. All lamps have close parallelsamong glass finds from other Middle Byzantine sanctuaries,for instance, Myra-Demre in Turkey, Thessaloniki inGreece, Chersoneses in Crimea, etc. The glass is mainly coloredlight green and blue. A slowly increased percentage ofpotassium oxide recorded by optical emission spectroscopymay point to glass production centers in the southeasternpart of Asia Minor or Levant.Chapter five, written by A. Musin, analyzes and classifiesmetal crosses found in the church. The excavation recordedat least 30 crosses and their fragments. Crosses wereused throughout the entire period of the church's existence.Crosses are regarded as an ex-voto offering. Most of themwere concentrated in the altar zone of the sanctuary andnear the southern entrance to the church. Two crosses wereput in wall masonry that closed the doorway between thenorthern compartment and the main church during the thirdbuilding period, evidently with apotropaic magic purposes.Presumably, crosses were suspended on the church wall oron elements of the church's interior, or inserted in them. Thecorpus of crosses is divided into five typological groups.The main group consists of iron crosses with an extendedlower branch made of two plates connected with a rivet thatderived from individual processional crosses and turned inex-voto. Some crosses with splayed arms were cut from thinsheet-metal, including copper alloy and probably silver,and decorated with punch ornamentation. Two crosses weremade of silver coins: Umayyad dirham (661 – 750 AD) andimitation of Arab-Sassanian half-drachma of the Sassanidking Kosrou II (590-629 AD).The two last groups of crosses can be compared to thecrosses of the type 1.2.2 according to J. Staecker found inEarly Rus' and Scandinavia in the 10th – 11th century, especiallyknown to be in graves in Birka (Sweden), Gnezdovonear Smolensk, Timerevo near Yaroslavl (Russia), Kiev,Iskorosten (Ukraine) and other political and economic centersof the formation of early medieval states in Russia andSweden. Several scholars have insisted that the crosses havean Anglo-Saxon origin and appeared in Sweden around930-940s AD with the mission of bishop Uni from BritishIslands. However, after the Yedi Evler excavation, the Byzantineorigin of these crosses is quite clear. Crosses fromEastern and Northern Europe may have been created usinga Byzantine example or brought directly from this regionin several cases. During the cultural transformation of theChristianization period, crosses that initially belonged to liturgicalpublic culture were turned in barbarian society intoprivate devotion objects and used as an element in burialcustoms.Nearly all crosses found in the Yedi Evler church haveparallels in other regions of the Byzantine Empire and theneighboring region in the Black Sea coastland, Mediterranean,Asia Minor, Northern Caucasus and Balkans. Suchex-voto crosses illustrate a special feature of post iconoclasticculture in the beginning of the Middle Byzantine period,as well as large distribution of personal reliquary-crossesof the end of the 9th – 11th century. However, prior to becomingan ex-voto offering in church interior, both types ofcrosses were generally used in private Christian devotion.It is largely accepted that the 9th -11th century was a periodof increasing individualism, social atomism and growingemphasis on personal piety. With that in mind, individualcrosses were evidence of the new post-iconoclasm Orthodoxyas a manifestation of personal activity in church lifeand a sign of the victory of polis community tradition overimperial tyranny.The process of donating personal crosses to churchesshould be regarded as a special way of reconciling personaldevotion with the liturgical needs of the local communityencouraged by Church hierarchy. The present hypothesisis confirmed by information in the Byzantine MonasticTypikons, especially that of Empress Irene Doukaina Komnenefor the Convent of the Mother of God Kecharitomenein Constantinople founded between 1100 and 1118, whichprescribed that each Saturday laymen would offer crosses-stauria in the sanctuary for the commemoration of thedeceased, and that other crosses must be brought similarlyeach Sunday on behalf of the living who are recorded on thediptychs. Crosses from the Yedi Evler church and in othercases should be regarded as an archaeological illustration ofsuch a ritual.Other small finds from the church like nails, chain linksfor the suspension of lamps, fragment of bronze wire, leadplates from a wick holder, buttons of bronze, small greenglass beads, and an iron arrow-head characteristic of EasternEurope military culture in the 10th/11th - 13th century aredescribed and analyzed in chapter six by I. Teslenko. Twoamulet-pendants found in the church that are made of clamshell of Cerithium vulgatum and tooth of deer of Cervuselaphus, which could also be offered in the sanctuary asex-voto, are presented in chapter seven by G. Gavris and I.Teslenko.Chapters eight to twelve compiled by G. Gavris, V.Logvinenko, and S. Leonov deal with bones and faunisticremains including birds, mammals, fishes, marine mollusks,and land snails recorded during the excavations. As a result,information is exhausted on the repertoire of animal sacrifices,a normal practice in rural parish Byzantine churches,and the composition of church festive meals has been determined.Among 139 identified bones of mammals, 64% belongto Ovis aries and Capra aegagrus hircus, 16% to Sus scrofadomesticus, 6% to Lepus europaeus and 2 % to Bos Taurus.Birds are presented with 148 individuals of 19 species,including 78% of Gallus domesticus and Gallus domesticussm. and an insignificant quantity of bones of Otis tarda,Cygnus olor, Perdix perdix etc.It is quite interesting to note that fishes are nearly absentfrom the collection, and consequently, on the table of parishmen who lived along the sea coast, only 13 bones ofAcipenser gueldenstaedtii and Perciformes were recorded.Evidently, bones from the excavation present the remainsof a festive meal and not an everyday diet. However, shellfishesare recorded here in 1900 fragments of Mytilus galloprovincialis(95% of mollusk) and a small number ofPatella ulyssiponensis and Ostrea lamellose. Eriphia spinifronspresented in 4-5 individuals should also be noted. Terrestrialgastropods mollusks are mainly presented by Helixalbescens (72.4%), Monacha fruticola (24.2%) Chondrulatridens (3.2%), and only one shell of Brephulopsis cylindrical.Some remarks on the distribution of animal bonesin the excavated complex will be provided in the followingchapters.In chapter thirteen, I. Teslenko proposed and arguedthe chronology of the site based mainly on pottery analysis.Coins from the 7th – mid-8th century that were used forthe manufacturing of crosses give only large terminus postquem for the church building. Amphora with small horizontalmultiple grooves on the surface well-known in Crimeanot later than the beginning - first half of the 9th century arenot recorded among the excavation materials; so the beginningof the church complex must date back to the secondthird-middle of the 9th century. The find of the fragment of ahigh neck jug with wide flat handles in layers of the secondbuilding period, and their absence later on, puts the date ofthe rebuilding of the church at 860-880 AD. The presence oflocal "Black Sea type" amphora of the second variant andthe absence of forms similar to amphora of types I and IIbaccording to N. Günsenin allow to propose the first half –mid of the 10th century as the final stage of the church's existenceand that of surrounding settlements. Another find isthe fragment of Glazed White Ware II, dated no earlier thanthe beginning of the 10th century. The history of the churchactually spans about 100 (± 20-25) years.Chapter fourteen by A. Musin discusses liturgical ritualspracticed in the sanctuary against the large background ofByzantine church culture and shows parallels from relatedterritories. To explain the meaning and origin of the two unequalapse church building in the Yedi Evler area, the authorprovides a thorough account of the phenomenon of doubleapse churches with unequal apses from Transcaucasia andthe Northern Caucasus through Asia Minor and the GreekIslands up until biapsidal churches were recorded in medievalItaly in the 9th-13th century. As a result, a conclusionhas been made that the Mediterranean World did not havea unique genesis of double apse churches. Late Antiquitychurches with two symmetrical naves and apses cannot beregarded as a direct prototype for the Yedi Evler church andrelated building. The architecture of Transcaucasia and theNorthern Caucasus sometimes gives similar features, forexample Mgvimevi, Georgia, the end of the 13th century,but all of them were built later than the monument underconsideration.The "pseudobiconques" churches with a reducednorthern apse are also known in medieval Italy and Corsicaof the 10th-12th century (see for example: San Venerio,La Spezia-Migliarina, Liguria; San Tommaso al Poggio,Rapallo, Liguria; Santa Maria della Chiappella, Rogliano,Haute-Corse; Santa Maria di Sibiola, Serdiana, Sardegna).However, they hardly could be a source of inspirationfor builders of the Yedi Evler church for cultural andchronological reasons. The Italian architecture of the "chiesebiabsidate" did, however, deeply influence the appearanceof two apse churches in Crimea and Muscovite Russia inthe end of the 14th-15th century. Nevertheless, early Italiantwo apse sanctuaries, especially with different apses and anadditional northern entrance, could initially reflect the sameprocess of the change of liturgical planning as in the YediEvler church.It should be acknowledged that "pseudobiconques"churches are not very characteristic for the Greek Island.Some indirect parallels can bee seen in the planning ofthe church of St Spyridon – Panagia Protothroni Halkia,Halki, Naxos Island; church of St Pantaleon, Kotraphi,Peloponnesus; church of St Athanasius, Phaturu, PatmosIsland; church of St Athanasius, Phaturu, Patmos Island. Inall cases, it is difficult to say whether the additional reducedcompartment was initially intended for this or that particularliturgical ritual. It is quite possible that both naves wereused for the Eucharist. However, in the Middle Byzantineperiod, the appearance of double churches of Sts John andGeorge, Sarakini, Samos, and the Monastery of St JohnChrysostomos at Koutsovendis, Cyprus can be attested.The double apse church was renewed in the 10th century inÜçayak, near Kirşehir, Central Anatolia, Turkey. The mostnotable fact is that the high density of two apse middlebyzantine churches, including the "pseudobiconques"sanctuary, is known to have existed in the ancient Pontprovince and near Trabzon, Turkey, for example in Koralla,Görele Burunu fortress or Gantopedin fortress (Matzouka,Zana Kale), Labra, Maçka Dere, near Köpruna Köy. Thisregion always had direct ties with the northern Black Seacoast and Crimea during Antiquity and Middle Ages.At the same time, the closest parallel to the Yedi Evlerchurch can be seen in the 10th-11th century double apsechurch in the Upper City of Middle Byzantine settlementin Boğazköy (Hattusa, Asia Minor), Turkey, excavated by P.Neve in the early 1980s. At the small northern compartmentthat served as the principle entrance in the southern mainchurch, obviously meant for the Eucharist, a considerablenumber of metal ex-voto crosses was recovered. Thecombination of such features attested both in Yedi Evlerand Boğazköy and the chronological coincidence cannot beaccidental.The author argued that different liturgical functions of twochurch compartments and the subsidiary role of the northernpart may be stressed by their sizes and architectural volumesand expressed in the exterior of churches in an architectonicway and by means of architecture. An additional means ofspecial organization of two parts of liturgical space involvedthe arrangement of a separate doorway to the main churchvia the northern compartment as a supposable place of initialworship rituals.Such a change in liturgical planning finds its possibleexplanation in the reform of Prothesis/Proskomedia,which took place in Middle Byzantium during and rightafter the iconoclasm period. The Euchologion Barberinigr. 336, the oldest Orthodox liturgical book of the end ofthe 8th century, reported the appearance of the first priest'sprayer for the preparation of bread and wine as gifts for theEucharist. There was a time when the clergy and monksestablished control over the expression of community andindividual piety within the bringing of liturgical gifts. Thechapter argues in support of a hypothesis on the Prothesisfunction established in the northern compartment in MiddleByzantine churches with two unequal apses such as YediEvler, Sotera, Boğazköy, several sanctuaries of Pont andTrabzon, etc. as a materialization of church reforms at thattime. It is quite possible that contemporary Italian churcheswith two unequal apses were also influenced by the samearchitectural and liturgical innovation in the beginning of theMiddle Byzantine period, especially since the EuchologionBarberini is a manuscript of southern Italian provenance,which reflects, however, practices of Constantinople.Architectural studies let us assume that initially, for anewly performed ritual, the northern annexes or nave ofchurch could be reserved, but later such liturgical planninginnovation did not catch on in church practice. Both preanaphoraand anaphoric rituals were concentrated in thealtar zone.The architectural implementation of the Prothesisreform could be reflected in another way, for example, in theconstruction of rectangular annexes to Middle Byzantinechurch as monastery Kisleçukuru, Antalia, and in İnişdibifortified settlement, Istlada, near Kekova – Myra/Demre,both in Turkey provide examples. In fact, the MiddleByzantine period is generally characterized by the risingof additional architectural volumes and a compartmentaround the main church building within the multiplicationof liturgical rituals and "Privatisation" of Liturgy.As proof for the given hypothesis, a find of liturgicalequipment in the church can be added. At the central partof the northern compartment just opposite the doorway tothe main church, an almost rhomboidal flat stone with dimensionsof 0.5 х 0.7 m (weight 75 kg) was attested. Itshorizontal position in situ was fixed by two roof tiles andfragments of amphora. A considerable number of potteryand glass fragments was concentrated around the stone, aswell as some animal bones. At the east end of the northernapse, the bottom of pithos and fragmentary sheep skullwere also recovered, which indicate some unknown ritual.It is quite possible that such flat stones laying directly on thechurch floor and serving as the Prtothesis table for offeringliturgical bread and wine were typical for rural Byzantinechurches, as the information of Pratum spirituale by JohnMoschus suggests.No remains of the altar table or distinct elements of thealtar screen were recorded during the excavations. This impliesthat the Holy table in the church could be made ofwood and the altar screen existed as a cloth curtain or katapetasma.However, the altar zone was separated from thenaos by a terrace cut in natural as a kind of bema. Near thebema, there was a pit, most likely for a water reservoir usedfor church needs and ritual purification purposes. Beside thispit within the altar zone, several roof tiles were stocked as aspecial construction associated with finds of metal crossesand glass lamp fragments that may be regarded as an elementof an unpreserved altar barrier.Such liturgical elements as the offering of ex-voto crossesand new arrangement of the Prothesis ritual may suggesta monastic influence in the area. Additionally, this possibilityis confirmed by some features of burial custom of thegrave excavated near the church to the southeast from themain apse, i.e. the fixation of the head of one buried senilisman with the help of small stones or a special head-supportknown in the practice of Mont Athos monasteries and in theTypikon of Studios monastery in Constantinople. This observationallows for a revision of the role of Byzantine monasticismin the development of Crimean Christian cultureof the iconoclasm and posticonoclasm period, especiallysince an erroneous hypothesis on the "mass migration" ofByzantine monks-iconodoules to the Crimean peninsulabased on an uncritical review of the information of the Lifeof Saint Stephen the Younger has been abandoned after newresearch.However, rituals practiced in the Yedi Evler church werelinked not only to monastic practices but also to popularChristianized rituals, as finds of animal bones in and aroundthe church suggest. Without a doubt, these kitchen remainstestify to animal sacrifice and parish community or familyfestive meals organized in the church. The finds of oxremains, an animal usually offered as a sacrifice in ruralGreek communities during sanctuary consecration, nearthe western and southern entrances to the church may referto rituals of dedication of the church after its constructionand reconstruction in the second and third building periods.Other bones and faunal remains are relatively proportionallyspread out in the church complex. It is difficult todeterminate where exactly the common meals took place.Most likely, during the first period of church life it was thenorthern part of the church; the joint offering of gifts forthe Eucharist and ordinary meal in the same place near theflat stone in the northern part of the church shows a kindof syncretism of liturgical and popular rituals. During thelast period, when the northern compartment was buried accordingto canon law postulates the main part of the kitchenremains was concentrated near the southern entrance to thesanctuary.The practice of animal sacrifices and parish meals waslargely in use in Byzantine popular religion, or so-called"parish Orthodoxy." In spite of prescriptions against suchpractices, which can be found in canon law, it was regardedas a norm in society, and even hagiographical texts, for example,the Life of Saint Nicolas of Sion in Asia Minor, tellabout such rituals without any fulmination. Rituals of animalsacrifices are also known in the North Caucasus, Transcaucasia,and the Balkans and are still preserved in ethnographicpractice until the beginning of the 20th century andon several territories up until the present age. For example,in the Farassa area, Cappadocia, modern Feke, Adana Province,Turkey, in the Greek parish the ritual of animal sacrificeswas recorded in the church opposite the main altar on abig stone. This parallel may suggest that the flat stone in thenorthern part of the Yedi Evler church, apart from its Prosthesisfunction, could have also served as archaic sacrifice.The remains of rituals of church consecration are alsoknown from the excavations. They have been attestedthanks to one-time concentrations of charcoals and fireplacesas well as kitchen remains opposite to the entrances of thesanctuary. For the first church consecration, three fireplaceswere recorded to the north, west and south of the church.The second consecration left one fireplace to the south fromthe church according to the position of the main doorwayduring the third building period.Within the last zone, micropieces of flint made by strikea-light were found. It is obvious that there was a specialplace here for making 'liturgical fire' before the beginningof office of vespers. Evidently, the celebration in the churchwas not conducted every day, but on special days includingFeast and Sunday Liturgies. Today the ritual of makingnew fire before offices is still preserved in Latin andGreek parish life, only on the eve of Easter Day when theliturgical light for the ceremony is normally lit from a bonfireburned outside the church. In Russian and UkrainianOrthodoxy, such practice has been abandoned. A specificderivate of such practices is the ritual of 'Holy Fire' in thechurch of Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem on Great Saturday,the day before Orthodox Easter, presented in mass mentalityand church propaganda as a miracle. However, the practiceof making 'new' or 'holy' fire, especially at the beginningof spring, is well known thanks to ethnological research inWestern and Central Europe, and relations between churchrituals and folklore customs are difficult to establish. Multiplefragments of glass lamps in the same zone hardly referto any rituals, nor do presented remains of lamps accidentallybroken during manipulation. Only one church customthat involves the intentional breaking of wedding glass cupsof wine was first attested in the Euchologion Paris Coislin.213 in 1027 AD. However, until the 12th century, the churchblessing of wedding was practiced in the aristocratic milieuand was not very widespread in rural society.In sum, the local parish community had enough cultivatedlevel of religious life and combined innovations ofliturgical mainstream of Byzantine society issued from culturalcenters and archaic practices belonging to the provincialrural population.The conclusions presented by I. Teslenko and A. Musinsummaries research results and give future perspectives.For the first time in the history of excavations of Crimeanmedieval churches, thanks to careful digging and fieldfixation, architectural archaeology managed to record manyliturgical features and everyday life elements characteristicof Byzantine rural churches. It allowed for determining acharacteristic of the material culture of the local populationduring the "demographic boom" and establishing of themataadministrative division in Byzantine Empire in the 8th-9thcentury. Church planning kept the very important step inthe development of the initial part of East-Christian Liturgyas ritualisation of Prothesis. Archaeological contextspreserved intact bones of animal sacrifices and communitymeals appropriated to Byzantine popular religion, tracesof making of 'holy' or liturgical fire as micropieces of flintmade by a light-a-strike, and ex-voto offering in the formof metal crosses, and amulets pendants that at the sametime could serve as interior church decoration. Such findsallowed us to establish byzantine origin of several typesof Christian devotional crosses pendants from the 10th-11th century originated from the territories of Early Rus'and Scandinavia. The church in Yedi Evler is an examplemonument of the Middle Byzantine period for the study ofliturgical devotion, rural sacral architecture and everydaylife of provincial settlements, which should be useful forthe understanding of both Crimean medieval culture and thehistory of other parts of the Byzantine World.The study of the Yedi Evler church permits us todraw some conclusions about the historical developmentand cultural situation in the southern part of the Crimeanpeninsula at the end of the 8th – mid 10th century. The materialculture of the local population known from the result ofthe church excavation and investigation of surroundingsettlements and pottery workshops suggests importantinnovation, such as stone housebuilding using roof tiles,high-technology pottery production with very effectivekilns, winemaking oriented to local and long distancetrade, and ecclesiastical architecture of basilica-type parishchurches. All these improvements were previously unknownfor the autochthonic people, which may be indentified tothe Crimean Goths. The settlement archaeology in the areashows that the above-mentioned innovations were broughthere with the wave of mass migration, and newly-establishedresidences of the new population existed quietly side by sidewith previous habitations. This situation may demonstratethe process of mutual integration and even acculturation ofautochthonic people in higher organized society. Most likely,the main group of migrants came from Asia Minor andbrought the mentioned traditions of Byzantine-Rhômaioscivilization, including high technology in pottery andliturgical innovations reflected in ecclesiastical architectureand devotional practices.Undoubtedly, the colonization of the southern part of theCrimean peninsula was organized by the administration ofthe Byzantine Empire in the framework of the establishingof the themata system. The theme ta Klimata in this areawas constituted in 841 AD, and later in the 850s it wasreorganized in the theme of Chersoneses. In the same vein,the new church administration was established here. Theregion under question had probably been included in themetropolitan of Ghotia or Doros, whose eastern borderseparating it from another one new diocese of Sougdaia orSourozh, now Sudak, was exactly across from the Yedi Evlervalley. The Goths diocese is referred to as "a certain regionalong the coast there called Dory," mentioned by Procopiusof Caesarea in his panegyric on the building activity of theemperor Justinian De Aedificiis.The chronology of pottery materials suggests that thechurch in Yedi Evler and the local agglomeration, as wellas a considerable part of settlements in Southern and South-Western Crimea, ceased to exist at the same time in the firsthalf of the 10th century. Such a social collapse may be linkedto the politically unstable situation in the area caused by theconflict between the Byzantine Empire and Khazar kaganateand active military raids of the Rus' from the Middle Dnieperarea to the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions, Asia Minorand Constantinople. The local population moved to moresecure regions or fled behind city walls for protection.This publication is supplemented by appendixes withcatalogues of finds of various categories including metals,glass, and faunal artifacts (I. Teslenko, N. Turova), pottery,ceramic and stone materials (O. Ignatenko, I. Teslenko),architectural elements (V. Kirilko), find of Bronze Ageperiod (I. Teslenko), description and results of opticalemission spectroscopy of glass finds (A. Egor'kov) andstudy of flint finds (V. Chabai).

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and I Saw the TV GlowWhen one looks out at another summer of sequels, reboots, and prequels it is possible to resort to the cliche that "they are out of ideas"--to pose the problem as a crisis of originality. It is for this reason, among many others that it is worth reading Daniel Bessner's piece for Harpers, "The Life and Death of Hollywood: Film and Television Writers Face an Existential Threat" One of the merits of Bessner's piece is that he makes it clear that the crisis Hollywood is facing is not one of ideas, of the imagination, but of capital, of profits. As Bessner writes,"But the business of Hollywood had undergone a foundational change. The new effective bosses of the industry—colossal conglomerates, asset-management companies, and private-equity firms—had not been simply pushing workers too hard and grabbing more than their fair share of the profits. They had been stripping value from the production system like copper pipes from a house—threatening the sustainability of the studios themselves. Today's business side does not have a necessary vested interest in "the business"—in the health of what we think of as Hollywood, a place and system in which creativity is exchanged for capital. The union wins did not begin to address this fundamental problem. Currently, the machine is sputtering, running on fumes. According to research by Bloomberg, in 2013 the largest companies in film and television were more than $20 billion in the black; by 2022, that number had fallen by roughly half. From 2021 to 2022, revenue growth for the industry dropped by almost 50 percent. At U.S. box offices, by the end of last year, revenue was down 22 percent from 2019. Experts estimate that cable-television revenue has fallen 40 percent since 2015. Streaming has rarely been profitable at all. Until very recently, Netflix was the sole platform to make money; among the other companies with streaming services, only Warner Bros. Discovery's platforms may have eked out a profit last year. And now the streaming gold rush...is over. In the spring of 2022, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates after years of nearly free credit, and at roughly the same time, Wall Street began calling in the streamers' bets. The stock prices of nearly all the major companies with streaming platforms took precipitous falls, and none have rebounded to their prior valuation."It is from this perspective that we could view what could be called the decline of the rate of originality. It is not a lack of new ideas that drives sequels and reboots, but the way in which an existing property, a comic book, movie, or television show appears, as the metaphor goes, as a house to be stripped for parts. It is an asset that already exists, and it is cheaper, easier, and supposedly less risky to mine these intellectual properties for whatever last bit of nostalgia they might contain than to develop new products. As Bessner writes,"Executives, meanwhile, increasingly believed that they'd found their best bet in "IP": preexisting intellectual property—familiar stories, characters, and products—that could be milled for scripts. As an associate producer of a successful Aughts IP-driven franchise told me, IP is "sort of a hedge." There's some knowledge of the consumer's interest, he said. "There's a sort of dry run for the story." Screenwriter Zack Stentz, who co-wrote the 2011 movies Thor and X-Men: First Class, told me, "It's a way to take risk out of the equation as much as possible."Here we can see how the experience of the audience and the executives both converge and diverge. In some way what the audience wants and what the studio, or its backers, want is the same thing and that is to eliminate risk, which is to say the guaranteed repetition of the same. This repetition is defined differently, what the audience wants is a repetition of the pleasures that they remember from certain movies; what the studio wants is a predictable return on investment, a repetition of the box office returns. These two repetitions diverge. The audience wants to feel like they did when they first saw Star Wars, Alien, or whatever, which is interpreted by the studio as making another film in the series of Star Wars, Aliens, or whatever particular franchise. The audience wants to feel they way that they first felt when a movie entertained them, but the only way that can become standardized or commodified is to remake, reboot, or requel of that movie. Instead of a repetition of that original experience we get another entry in its expanded universe. Repetition of an original experience is replaced by its serialization into a franchise. We can also think of these two different repetitions according to the formulas that Marx sketches out in Capital as the basic contours of commodity exchange. For the audience it is a matter of C-M-C; they have exchanged their labor power (C) for wages, money (M), and are now buying a ticket to a movie C. This exchange is driven by use value, although what the use of a movie is open to a myriad of different possibilities, some want to laugh, some to cry, some just want to pass a few hours in air conditioning, and some want to just be able to say that they have seen it. Repetition of this formula is an attempt to get the same use, the same value of an experience again. The studio, or its financial backers, are engaged in a different process M-C-M; they have invested money (M) in a commodity, or rather commodities, that include the labor power of writers, directors, actors, gaffers, set designers, makeup artists, and, increasingly CGI programmers, with the hope of making a profit. It is exchange predicated on exchange value, not use, all that matters is that more money comes in then went out, M-C-M'. Studios do not care about why you see a movie, what you get out of it, just that you pay to see it. If a movie fails as a serious film it can be marketed as kitsch, as studios did with Showgirls years ago, but there has been a tendency for even irony to exhaust itself as a marketing tool. People made many jokes about "Morbin' Time" and Madam Web, but the online jokes did not translate into real world tickets. Sometimes the two repetitions coincide. A studio puts out movies that people like, or at least want to see, and the audience is happy and the studios make a profit. The history of the marketing or selling of movies is an attempt to focus on a different way of understanding, or presenting this overlap. Movies can be marketed by genre, by star, by director, or, as is increasingly the case by Intellectual Property. These are different ways for the audience to be promised a repetition, see another western, another Cary Grant film, another Steven Spielberg film, or another entry in the MCU, after all you liked the last one. There is of course difference in these repetitions, not all westerns are the same, actors make different films, and even directors have a tendency to branch out and diverge. Intellectual property is an attempt to predicate the repetition on something the studio owns, the intellectual property, and is more controllable, more of a guaranteed repetition, in terms of pleasure and profits, than the same genre, actor, or director. Actors and directors come and go, but Spider-Man is eternal. I was thinking about all of this when I saw two movies in the last week.  One of the films was Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. I should say that I have a particular attachment to the Mad Max films. I saw The Road Warrior (Mad Max 2) when I was far too young and it blew my mind. I am not really alone in this, although at the time I was the only one in my grade who was allowed to see such an R rated film, the movie effectively produced the image of the post-apocalyptic wasteland that is now taken for granted. The Mad Max films are also unique in the current realm of franchises in that they are still driven by the same writer and director, George Miller. In that sense they are not a franchise at all. Furiosa is a bit of a departure in that it is the first film to dispense with the central character, Max Rockatansky. It is also a prequel, even though I read somewhere that Miller wrote it first as part of one big story, but made Fury Road first due to studio pressures. They wanted the film with Mad Max in it. Miller's filmmaking is fundamentally at odds with the prequel function. The Mad Max films excel at creating a world and dropping you into it. The audience gets fragments of this new world, figuring out how these odd things, mohawks and muscle cars, Bartertowns, Bullet Farms, and War Boys, make a world.  Don't worry, the film does not go into the kind of excesses of over explaining that the Star Wars films are known for, we do not meet Immortan Joe as a little boy, or find out why Max was ever called Mad in the first place. The story is focused on Furiosa, and the events that led up to her stealing a "war rig" and trying to rescue Immortan Joe's wives in Fury Road. In Furiosa we meet the titular character first as a young girl, who is captured from her small community, the closest thing we get to a utopia in this series. She is hell bent first on getting back to her community, then later on revenge.The prequel puts her decision to focus on collective liberation in a new light. In some sense it is an anti-revenge story. In this way it goes full circle. Mad Max the first of the film series, was a revenge film. Max Rockantansky went after the bikers that killed his family. Furiosa makes the point that revenge is no way to live. In doing so it touches on the central philosophical question of these films known more for their car crashes and crossbow fights. How can one live in a world defined by loss, by death. Is it possible to not go mad in such a world. The film opens with the question, "As the world falls around us. How must we brave it's cruelties?" 
Furiosa (Anya Taylor-Joy) gets her moment of revenge, is face to face with the man who killed her mother and took her from her utopia, Dementus (Chris Hemsworth). It is at that moment that she realizes that she needs to live for more than just revenge, she needs hope, or at least be a source of hope for others. In a strange way the film provides the emotional core for Fury Road's kinetic chaos. It also offers a different way to think about the compulsion to repeat that defines contemporary film making. If you have to go back to the past, to return to the wasteland, to the idea of revenge that started the whole series, then it perhaps makes sense to transform it, to acknowledge that one can never go back to the beginning. The film opens with the question of how to live as the world dies and ends with Furiosa's answer, we do so by trying to create a new world, with hope. In Furiosa the Mad Max films shift from anti-hero, from Max who reluctantly makes it possible for the compound to escape Humungus (in The Road Warrior), and the children to escape the Wasteland (in Thunderdome), to hero. Furiosa does not save the wives in trying to save herself, but saves the wives in order to save herself. Furiosa is the first hero, the first one to make it epic.As much as I appreciated this point, and the relevance of the question of living with loss and anger as we live through our own slow apocalypse, I found myself caught in that fundamental problem of all franchises and series. You can build a bigger war rig but you cannot reproduce the feeling when you first see one of Miller's meticulously choreographed chase scenes, even as this film has a few excellent ones.This brings me to the second film I saw this week, I Saw the TV Glow.  This film is not a franchise. It is, however, about the nostalgia that drives our fascination with past popular culture. 
The film is about two teenagers who bound over a television show called The Pink Opaque. The film is set in the nineties and the show they bound over bears a striking resemblance to a popular show with supernatural themes, teenage angst, and quippy dialogue. (The show is clearly Buffy: The Vampire Slayer, or at least meant to invoke it, right down to a cameo by Amber Benson who played Tara in the series). I am not going to go over the whole film here, and honestly suggest that you just go see it. There is one scene that sticks with me, actually one of many. One of the teenagers, Owen (Justice Smith) tries to revisit the show as a young adult, years later when it is available on streaming. One of the many admirable things about the film is how it conveys the fundamental different experience of watching television from the old days of broadcast in which you had to be in front of the television at a particular time, or have some one tape it for you, and the contemporary age of streaming. Everything, well almost everything, is more accessible, but the experience of stumbling on some program, or rushing home to watch some program is a fundamentally different investment than having everything at one's fingertips. The movie connects the history of media technology, from broadcast to video tapes, and, later streaming with the more intimate history of the experience of media. In doing so it also illustrate the gap that separates memory from the attempt to relive it. When Owen watches the show years later it looks fundamentally different. It is no longer the smart and scary show that he remembers. It is cheesier, cheaper, and more childish. It is nothing that he remembers because he is not the same person. This is the fundamental problem with the compulsion to repeat that defines contemporary film. It is not just that the repetition cannot recreate the original experience. That the sequel is not as good as the original. It is that the original is not as good as the original. What we remember is not the original, but also in part who we were when we first saw it. We will never be the the person we were then, especially when many of this sequels and reboots try to recapture our childhood memories and experiences, times when we were more impressionable and more likely be impressed by space battles or giant trucks. This is why a Hollywood that is stripping the past for parts will never give us what we want. Its compulsion to repeat is fundamentally misguided. To take risk out of the equation is to lose everything we go to movies for.

NOTICIAS / NEWS ("Transfer", 2016) 1) CONGRESOS / CONFERENCES: 1. Languages & the Media – Agile Mediascapes: Personalising the Future, Hotel Radisson Blu, Berlín, 2-4 Nov. 2016 www.languages-media.com 2. Third Chinese Drama Translation Colloquium Newcastle University, UK, 28-19 Junio 2016. www.ncl.ac.uk/sml/about/events/item/drama-translation-colloquium 3. 16th Annual Portsmouth Translation Conference – Translation & Interpreting: Learning beyond the Comfort Zone, University of Portsmouth, UK, 5 Nov. 2016. www.port.ac.uk/translation/events/conference 4. 3rd International Conference on Non-Professional Interpreting & Translation (NPIT3) Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Suiza
5-7 Mayo 2016. www.zhaw.ch/linguistics/npit3 5. 3rd Postgraduate Symposium – Cultural Translation: In Theory and as Practice. University of Nottingham, UK, 18 Mayo 2016. Contact: uontranslation2016@gmail.com 6. 3rd Taboo Conference – Taboo Humo(u)r: Language, Culture, Society, and the Media, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona) 20-21 Sep. 2016.
https://portal.upf.edu/web/taco 7. Postgraduate Conference on Translation and Multilingualism Lancaster University, UK, 22 Abril 2016. Contacto: c.baker@lancaster.ac.uk 8. Translation and Minority University of Ottawa (Canadá), 11-12 Nov. 2016. Contacto: rtana014@uottawa.ca 9. Translation as Communication, (Re-)narration and (Trans-)creation Università di Palermo (Italia), 10 Mayo 2016 www.unipa.it/dipartimenti/dipartimentoscienzeumanistiche/convegni/translation 10. From Legal Translation to Jurilinguistics: Interdisciplinary Approaches to the Study of Language and Law, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla,
27-28 Oct. 2016. www.tinyurl.com/jurilinguistics 11. Third International Conference on Research into the Didactics of Translation. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 7-8 Julio 2016 http://grupsderecerca.uab.cat/pacte/en/content/second-circular-1 12. EST Congress – Expanding the Boundaries or Strengthening the Bases: Should Translation Studies Explore Visual Representation? Aarhus University (Dinamarca), 15-17 Sep. 2016 http://bcom.au.dk/research/conferencesandlectures/est-congress-2016/panels/18-expanding-the-boundaries-or-strengthening-the-bases-should-translation-studies-explore-visual-representation/ 13. Tourism across Cultures: Accessibility in Tourist Communication Università di Salento, Lecce (Italia). 25-27 Feb. 2016 http://unisalento.wix.com/tourism 14. Translation and Interpreting Studies at the Crossroad: A Dialogue between Process-oriented and Sociological Approaches – The Fourth Durham Postgraduate Colloquium on Translation Studies Durham University, UK. 30 Abril – 1 Mayo 2016. www.dur.ac.uk/cim 15. Translation and Interpreting: Convergence, Contact, Interaction Università di Trieste (Italia), 26-28 Mayo 2016 http://transint2016.weebly.com 16. 7th International Symposium for Young Researchers in Translation, Interpreting, Intercultural Studies and East Asian Studies. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 1 Julio 2016. http://pagines.uab.cat/simposi/en 17. Translation Education in a New Age The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China 15-16 Abril 2016. Contact: Claire Zhou (clairezhou@cuhk.edu.cn) 18. Audiovisual Translation: Dubbing and Subtitling in the Central European Context, Constantine the Philosopher University, Nitra (Eslovaquia). 15-17 Junio 2016. https://avtnitraconference.wordpress.com 19. Cervantes, Shakespeare, and the Golden Age of Drama Madrid, 17-21 Oct. 2016 http://aedean.org/wp-content/uploads/Call-for-papers.pdf 20. 3rd International Conference Languaging Diversity – Language/s and Power. Università di Macerata (Italia), 3-5 Marzo 2016 http://studiumanistici.unimc.it/en/research/conferences/languaging-diversity 21. Congreso Internacional de Traducción Especializada (EnTRetextos) Universidad de Valencia, 27-29 Abril 2016 http://congresos.adeituv.es/entretextos 22. Translation & Quality 2016: Corpora & Quality Université Charles de Gaulle Lille 3 (Francia), 5 Feb. 2016 http://traduction2016.sciencesconf.org/?lang=en 23. New forms of feedback and assessment in translation and interpreting training and industry. 8th EST Congress – Translation Studies: Moving Boundaries, Aarhus University (Dinamarca), 15-17 Sep. 2016. www.bcom.au.dk/est2016 24. Intermedia 2016 – Conference on Audiovisual Translation University of Lodz (Polonia), 14-16 Abril 2016 http://intermedia.uni.lodz.pl 25. New Technologies and Translation Université d'Algiers (Argelia). 23-24 Feb. 2016 Contacto: newtech.trans.algiers@gmail.com 26. Circulation of Academic Thought - Rethinking Methods in the Study of Scientific Translation. 11 - 12 Dec. 2015, University of Graz (Austria).https://translationswissenschaft.uni-graz.at/de/itat/veranstaltungen/circulation-of-academic-thought 27. The 7th Asian Translation Traditions Conference Monash University, Malaysia Campus, 26-30 Sep. 2016. http://future.arts.monash.edu/asiantranslation7 28. "Translation policy: connecting concepts and writing history" 8th EST Congress – Translation Studies: Moving Boundaries Aarhus University (Dinamarca), 15-17 Sep. 2016 http://bcom.au.dk/research/conferencesandlectures/est-congress-2016/panels/13-translation-policy-connecting-concepts-and-writing-history 29. International Conference – Sound / Writing: On Homophonic Translation. Université de Paris (Francia), 17-19 Nov. 2016 www.fabula.org/actualites/sound-writing-on-homophonic-translationinternational-conference-paris-november-17-19-2016_71295.php 30. Third Hermeneutics and Translation Studies Symposium – Translational Hermeneutics as a Research Paradigm Technische Hochschule, Colonia (Alemania), 30 Junio-1 Julio 2016 www.phenhermcommresearch.de/index.php/conferences 31. II International Conference on Economic Financial and Institutional Translation. Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (Canadá), 17-18 Agosto 2016. www.uqtr.ca/ICEBFIT 32. International Congress - liLETRAd 2016-Cátedra LILETRAD. Literature Languages Translation, Universidad de Sevilla, 6-8 Julio 2016. https://congresoliletrad.wordpress.com 33. Transmediations! Communication across Media Borders Linnæus University, Växjö (Suecia), 13–15 Oct. 2016 http://lnu.se/lnuc/linnaeus-university-centre-for-intermedial-and-multimodal-studies-/events/conferences/transmediations?l=en 34. Translation Education in a New Age, 15-16 Abril 2016. School of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Contacto: chansinwai@cuhk.edu.cn 35. Translation and Time: Exploring the Temporal Dimension of Cross-cultural Transfer, 8-10 Diciembre 2016. Departamento de Traducción, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Contacto: translation-and-time@cuhk.edu.hk. 36. Du jeu dans la langue. Traduire les jeux de mots / Loose in Translation. Translating Wordplay, 23-24 Marzo 2017, Université de Lille (France) https://www.univ-lille3.fr/recherche/actualites/agenda-de-la-recherche/?type=1&id=1271. Contacto: traduirejdm@univ-lille3.fr, julie.charles@univ-lille3.fr 37. Translation and Translanguaging across Disciplines. EST Congress 2016 "Translation Studies: Moving Boundaries", European Society for Translation Studies, Aarhus (Dinamarca), 15-17 Sep. 2016 http://bcom.au.dk/research/conferencesandlectures/est-congress-2016/panels/12-translation-and-translanguaging-across-disciplines/ Contacto: nune.ayvazyan@urv.cat; mariagd@blanquerna.url.edu; sara.laviosa@uniba.it http://bcom.au.dk/research/conferencesandlectures/est-congress-2016/submission/ 38. Beyond linguistic plurality: The trajectories of multilingualism in Translation. An international conference organized jointly by Bogaziçi University, Department of Translation and Interpreting Studies, and Research Group on Translation and Transcultural Contact, York University, Bogaziçi University, 1-12 Mayo 2016. Contacto: sehnaz.tahir@boun.edu.tr, MGuzman@glendon.yorku.ca 39. "Professional and Academic Discourse: an interdisciplinary perspective". XXXIV IConferencia Internacional de la Sociedad Española de Lingüística Aplicada (AESLA), 14-16 Abril 2016. Interuniversity Institute for Applied Modern Languages (IULMA) / Universidad de Alicante. http://web.ua.es/aesla2016. Contacto: antonia.montes@ua.es. 2) CURSOS, SEMINARIOS, POSGRADOS / COURSES, SEMINARS, MASTERS: 1. Seminario: Breaking News for French>English and English>French Translators King's College Cambridge, UK, 8-10 Agosto 2016 Contacto: translateincambridge@iti.org.uk 2. Curso on-line: Setting Up as a Freelance Translator Enero – Marzo 2016. Institute of Translation & Interpreting, UK https://gallery.mailchimp.com/58e5d23248ce9f10c161ba86d/files/Application_Form_SUFT_2016.pdf?utm_source=SUFT+December+Emailer&utm_campaign=11fdfe0453-Setting_Up_as_a_Freelance_Translator12_7_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6ef4829e50-11fdfe0453-25128325 3. Curso: Using Interpreters for Intercultural Communication and Other Purposes (COM397CE) http://darkallyredesign.com/what-we-do/using-interpreters-for-intercultural-communication 4. Workshop: How to Write and Publish Your Scholarly Paper In cooperation with the European Association of Science Editors (EASE) New Bulgarian University, Sofia (Bulgaria), 21-23 Marzo 2016 www.facebook.com/events/1511610889167645 http://esnbu.org/data/files/resources/ease-nbu-seminar-march-2016-fees.pdf 5. Posgrado: II Postgraduate Course on Spanish Law Taught in English "Global study". Universidad Internacional de Andalucía / Colegio de Abogados de Málaga. www.unia.es/cursos/guias/4431_english.pdf 3) CURSOS DE VERANO / SUMMER COURSES: 1. STRIDON – Translation Studies Doctoral and Teacher Training Summer School, Piran (Eslovenia), 27 Junio – 8 Julio 2016 www.prevajalstvo.net/doctoral-summer-school 2. Training in Translation Pedagogy Program School of Translation and Interpretation, University of Ottawa (Canadá), 4-29 Julio 2016. https://arts.uottawa.ca/translation/summer-programs 3. 2016 Nida School of Translation Studies. Translation, Ecology and Entanglement, San Pellegrino University Foundation, Misano Adriatico, Rimini (Italia), 30 Mayo – 10 Junio 2016. http://nsts.fusp.it/Nida-Schools/NSTS-2016 4. TTPP - Intensive Summer Program in Translation Pedagogy University of Ottawa (Canadá), 4-29 Julio 2016. http://arts.uottawa.ca/translation/summer-programs-2016/ttpp 5. CETRA Summer School 2016. 28th Research Summer School University of Leuven, campus Antwerp (Bélgica), 22 Agosto – 2 Sep. 2016. Contacto: cetra@kuleuven.be. http://www.arts.kuleuven.be/cetra 4) LIBROS / BOOKS: 1. Varela Salinas, María-José & Bernd Meyer (eds.) 2016. Translating and Interpreting Healthcare Discourses / Traducir e interpretar en el ámbito sanitario. Berlín : Frank & Timme. www.frank-timme.de/verlag/verlagsprogramm/buch/verlagsprogramm/bd-79-maria-jose-varela-salinasbernd-meyer-eds-translating-and-interpreting-healthcare-disc/backPID/transued-arbeiten-zur-theorie-und-praxis-des-uebersetzens-und-dolmetschens-1.html 2. Ordóñez López, Pilar and José Antonio Sabio Pinilla (ed.) 2015. Historiografía de la traducción en el espacio ibérico. Textos contemporáneos. Madrid: Ediciones de Castilla-La Mancha. www.unebook.es/libro/historiografia-de-latraduccion-en-el-espacio-iberico_50162 3. Bartoll, Eduard. 2015. Introducción a la traducción audiovisual. Barcelona: Editorial UOC. www.editorialuoc.cat/introduccion-a-la-traduccion-audiovisual 4. Rica Peromingo, Juan Pedro & Jorge Braga Riera. 2015. Herramientas y técnicas para la traducción inglés-español. Madrid: Babélica. www.escolarymayo.com/libro.php?libro=7004107&menu=7001002&submenu=7002029 5. Le Disez, Jean-Yves. 2015. F.A.C.T. Une méthode pour traduire de l'anglais au français. París: Ellipses. www.editions-ellipses.fr/product_info.php?cPath=386&products_id=10601 6. Baker, Mona (ed.) 2015. Translating Dissent: Voices from and with the Egyptian Revolution. Londres: Routledge. www.tandf.net/books/details/9781138929876 7. Gallego Hernández, Daniel (ed.) 2015. Current Approaches to Business and Institutional Translation / Enfoques actuales en traducción económica e institucional. Berna: Peter Lang. www.peterlang.com/download/datasheet/86140/datasheet_431656.pdf 8. Vasilakakos, Mary. 2015. A Training Handbook for Health and Medical Interpreters in Australia. www.interpreterrevalidationtraining.com/books-and-resources.html 9. Jankowska, Anna & Agnieszka Szarkowska (eds) 2015. New Points of View on Audiovisual Translation and Media Accessibility. Oxford: Peter Lang. www.peterlang.com/index.cfm?event=cmp.ccc.seitenstruktur.detailseiten&seitentyp=produkt&pk=83114 10. Baer, Brian James (2015). Translation and the Making of Modern Russian Literature, Londres: Bloomsbury. Translation and the Making of Modern Russian Literature is the inaugural book in a new Translation Studies series: Bloomsbury's "Literatures, Cultures, Translation." 11. Camps, Assumpta. 2016. La traducción en la creación del canon poético (Recepción de la poesía italiana en el ámbito hispánico en la primera mitad del siglo XX). Berna: Peter Lang. 5) REVISTAS / JOURNALS: 1. JoSTrans, The Journal of Specialised Translation, nº especial sobre Translation & the Profession, Vol. 25, Enero 2016. www.jostrans.org 2. Translation and Interpreting – Nº especial sobre Community Interpreting: Mapping the Present for the Future www.trans-int.org/index.php/transint. 3. inTRAlinea – Nº especial sobre New Insights into Specialised Translation. www.intralinea.org/specials/new_insights 4. Linguistica Antverpiensia NS-Themes in Translation Studies, 2015 issue, Towards a Genetics of Translation. https://lans-tts.uantwerpen.be/index.php/LANS-TTS/issue/view/16 5. Quaderns de Filologia, Nº especial sobre Traducción y Censura: Nuevas Perspectivas, Vol. 20, 2015. https://ojs.uv.es/index.php/qdfed/issue/view/577 6. The Translator – Nº especial sobre Food and Translation, Translation and Food, 2015, 21(3). www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ryqJewJUDKZ6m2YM4IaR/full 7. Current Trends in Translation Teaching and Learning E, 2015, 2 www.cttl.org/cttl-e-2015.html 8. Dragoman Journal of Translation Studies. www.dragoman-journal.org 9. Current Trends in Translation Teaching and Learning E. Edición especial sobre Translation Studies Curricula Across Countries and Cultures. www.cttl.org 10. International Journal of the Sociology of Language, Nº especial sobre Translation Policies and Minority Languages: Theory, Methods and Case Studies http://fouces.webs.uvigo.es/CallForPapersIJSLTranslationPolicies.pdf 11. Nº especial de The Interpreter and Translator Trainer 11(2) – Employability and the Translation Curriculum www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1750399X.2015.1103092 12. InTRAlinea. Nº especial sobre Building Bridges between Film Studies and Translation Studies www.intralinea.org/news/item/cfp_building_bridges_between_film_studies_and_translation_studies 13. Nº especial de TranscUlturAl: Comics, BD & Manga in translation/en traduction https://ejournals.library.ualberta.ca/index.php/TC/announcement/view/290 14. The Journal of Translation Studies 2015, 16(4) Nº especial sobre Translator and Interpreter Training in East Asia Contacto: Won Jun Nam: wjnam@hufs.ac.kr, wonjun_nam@daum.net 15. TRANS Revista de Traductología, 19(2), 2015. www.trans.uma.es/trans_19.2.html 16. Between, 9, 2015 – Censura e auto-censura http://ojs.unica.it/index.php/between/index 17. Translation Studies, Nº especial sobre Translingualism & Transculturality in Russian Contexts of Translation http://explore.tandfonline.com/cfp/ah/rtrs-cfp3 18. Translation & Interpreting, 7:3, 2016 www.trans-int.org/index.php/transint/issue/view/38 19. "The translation profession: Centres and peripheries" The Journal of Specialised Translation (Jostrans), Nº. 25, Enero 2016. The Journal of Translation Studies is a joint publication of the Department of Translation of The Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Chinese University Press. Contact: jts.tra@cuhk.edu.hk, james@arts.cuhk.edu.hk 19. Nuevo artículo: "The Invisibility of the African Interpreter" por Jeanne Garane, Translation: a transdisciplinary journal http://translation.fusp.it/. Contact: siri.nergaard@gmail.com.

The infant mortality rate in Ukraine has been progressively decreasing over the past decade, but remains very high compared with the countries of the European Union. The mortality rate of infants in the first year of life in Ukraine is 2.5–3 times higher than in the EU countries, while the mortality rate of newborns during the first month of life exceeds the average European level by 6.6 times. This indicates a significant backlog of our country in the implementation of modern standards of medical care for both pregnant women and newborns using modern diagnostic and treatment methodologies.One of the most effective way that allowed to reduce significantly infant mortality and disability rates in the developed countries of the world proved to be introduction of expanded newborn screening as a tool of early detection of wide spectrum of inherited metabolic disorders (IMD) – orphan diseases caused by genetic defects of particular enzymes leading to alterations in specific metabolic pathways. As a rule, IMDs occurrence cannot be established during medical examination of newborns due to the absence of clinical symptoms. Therefore, IMDs are diagnosed in two ways: (i) with clinical manifestation in the form of "neonatal catastrophes" and/or sudden infant death syndrome, (ii) according to the results of a biochemical examination of the blood of all (asymptomatic) newborns (i.e. screening). Delays or errors in the diagnosis of these diseases often lead to irreversible damage of many organs, first of all, the brain (neurological deficits, mental retardation, oligophrenia). Newborn screening – measurement in dried blood spots, sampled in asymptomatic newborns, concentrations of a specific set of substances which characterize key processes of protein, carbohydrate and lipid metabolism as a tool of early IMDs identification and prompt treatment initiation of affected children to prevent metabolic decompensation episodes and disability development was started in the 1960s in the United States with just one disease – phenylketonuria.By now, newborn screening programs have been implemented in more than 50 countries of the world and provide diagnostics of more than 45 IMDs. A significant (8–10 times) expanding the spectrum of IMDs that can be detected upon examination of dried blood spots on filter paper has been achieved by application of a high-throughput quantitative bioanalysis method – tandem mass spectrometry (TMS) in the late 1990s. Unlike routinely applied immunofluorimetric method allowing to measure just one biochemical agent in one blood sample, TMS allowed to analyze concentrations of several dozen substances in one dried blood spot.Currently, in Ukraine newborn screening is carried out for 4 diseases: phenylketonuria, congenital hypothyroidism, congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and cystic fibrosis using the low-throughput immunofluorimetric method. In some cases, expanded newborn screening using TMS method is performed on a commercial basis in foreign laboratories. At the same time, according to the Law of Ukraine No. 2461 "On ensuring the prevention and treatment of rare diseases" dated April 15, 2014, and the Orders of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine No. 778 dated 10.27.2014, No. 919 dated December 30, 2015, and No. 731 dated June 29, 2017, "The list of rare (orphan) diseases, that lead to a reduction of patient's lifespan or their disability, and for these diseases there are well-established methods of treatment" comprises more than 60 inherited metabolic disorders.This indicates a significant backlog of our country in the issue of not only ethical and medical significance, but great social and economic importance.The key issue of the expanded newborn screening implementation using high-throughput and accurate TMS method in Ukraine is the absence of modern analytical instruments and supplementary equipment in the state medico-genetic laboratories, as well as analysts with sufficient level of training. TMS is a technically complex method based on application of expensive vacuum and chromatographic equipment, special software, isotopic labeling reagents, high-purity gases, instruments maintenance with the aid of foreign experts, as well as qualified lab staff.Such private clinical diagnostic laboratory, where TMS-measurements are performed routinely at site and biomaterials are not transferred abroad exists in Ukraine. This laboratory is capable to perform the full range of measurements at the initial stage of newborn screening (TMS-analysis) and the secondary confirmatory testing using gas-chromatography/mass-spectrometry (GC/MS) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods, as well as enzymes activity assessment and molecular-genetic studies. On the basis of reached agreement in September 2017 it was started the development of the Program of improving the diagnostics of inherited metabolic diseases in newborns and older children in Ukraine. This Program has been initiated by the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine with the participation of "Association of Pediatricians of Ukraine" and "Association of Neonatologists of Ukraine", as well as membership of the "Institute of Pediatrics, Obstetrics and Gynecology named after academician O.M. Lukyanova of NAMS of Ukraine", medical universities and regional health-care providers.The purpose of the Program is to expand up to 29 the list of inherited metabolic disorders to be diagnosed in newborns and older children that allows early start of treatment and follow-up of affected patients. Wide implementation of the Program allows reducing the levels of neonatal, infant and child mortality and disability.The Program is based on the following principles: (i) a clear distribution of the responsibilities between participants considering newborn screening procedures and processes; (ii) implementation of electronic document management system to register transferring of biomaterial from the moment of sampling to presentation of laboratory measurement results, it's expert evaluation and medical recommendations for further actions; (iii) documented customer feedback to report the results and it's expert evaluation; (iv) creation of the database for calculating the threshold concentrations of biochemical markers and its' ratios (cut-off) for the Ukrainian population in order to reduce the number of false-negative and false-positive results.Financing of the Program have relied on funding of regional budgets, extra-budgetary funds and own funds of parents.The implementation of the preparatory phase of the Program was launched in Spring, 2018. The launch of the pilot part of the Program in 5 regions: Kiev, Kiev Region, Lugansk and Donetsk Regions, and the city Chernivtsi is scheduled for April 2019. The program is planned to be expanded throughout Ukraine at the end of 2020. ; Уровень детской смертности в Украине прогрессивно снижается в течение последнего десятилетия, но остается очень высоким по сравнению со странами Европейского Союза. Показатель смертности младенцев первого года жизни в Украине в 2,5-3 раза выше, чем в странах ЕС, при этом уровень смертности новорожденных в течение первого месяца жизни превышает среднеевропейский в 6,6 раз. Это свидетельствует о существенном отставании нашей страны во внедрении современных стандартов оказания медицинской помощи, как беременным женщинам, так и новорожденным с использованием современных методологий диагностики и лечения.Одним из наиболее эффективных направлений деятельности, которая обеспечила существенное снижение уровня детской смертности и инвалидности в развитых странах мира, стало внедрение расширенного массового скрининга новорожденных с целью выявления наследственных болезней обмена веществ (НБО) – орфанных заболеваний, которые возникают вследствие генетических дефектов ферментов. Наличие НБО, как правило, не удается установить при врачебном осмотре новорожденных из-за отсутствия клинических симптомов. Диагностируют НБО двумя способами: (i) по клиническим проявлениям в форме «катастроф неонатального периода» и синдрома внезапной смерти младенцев, (ii) по результатам биохимического обследования крови новорожденных (скрининга). Задержка или ошибки в диагностике этих заболеваний часто приводят к необратимым повреждениям многих органов и, в первую очередь, головного мозга (неврологические нарушения, психическое регресс, слабоумие).Неонатальный скрининг – измерение в крови новорожденных концентраций определенного набора веществ, характеризующих ключевые процессы белкового, углеводного и липидного обмена с целью раннего выявления и начала лечения детей с НБО и предотвращения их инвалидизации было начато в 60-х годах прошлого века в США с одной болезни – фенилкетонурии. Сегодня программы неонатального скрининга внедрены более, чем в 50 странах мира и обеспечивают диагностику более 45 НБО. Значительное (в 8-10 раз) расширение количества НБО, которые могут быть обнаружены при исследовании высушенных на фильтровальной бумаге пятен крови, стало возможным благодаря внедрению высокопроизводительного метода тандемной масс-спектрометрии (ТМС) в конце 90-х годов прошлого века. В отличие от иммунофлуориметрического метода, который позволяет определять один показатель в одной пробе крови, ТМС позволяет измерять концентрации нескольких десятков веществ в одной пробе крови.В настоящее время в Украине скрининг новорожденных ведется по 4-м заболеваниям: фенилкетонурии, врожденному гипотиреозу, адреногенитальному синдрому и муковисцидозу с использованием низкопродуктивного иммунофлуориметрического метода. В отдельных случаях расширенный скрининг новорожденных с использованием метода ТМС выполняется на коммерческой основе в зарубежных лабораториях. При этом, согласно Закону Украины № 2461 «Об обеспечении профилактики и лечения редких заболеваний» от 15.04.2014, и Приказов МОЗ Украины № 778 от 27.10.2014, № 919 от 30.12.2015 и № 731 от 29.06.2017, «Перечень редких (орфанных) заболеваний, приводящих к сокращению продолжительности жизни больных или их инвалидизации и для которых существуют признанные методы лечения» включает более 60 наследственных болезней обмена веществ. Это свидетельствует о значительном отставании нашей страны в вопросе, который, кроме этического и медицинского, имеет важное социальное и экономическое значение.Ключевым вопросом внедрения расширенного скрининга новорожденных с использованием высокопроизводительного и точного метода ТМС в Украине является отсутствие в государственных медико-генетических лабораториях современного аналитического оборудования и вспомогательной инфраструктуры, а также специалистов-аналитиков с достаточным уровнем подготовки. ТМС – технически сложный метод, требующий использования дорогостоящего вакуумного и хроматографического оборудования, специального программного обеспечения, реагентов с изотопными метками, высокочистых газов, сервисного обслуживания с привлечением иностранных специалистов, а также квалифицированного персонала.Учитывая наличие частной клинико-диагностической лаборатории, выполняющей ТМС-анализы в Украине, а не транспортирующей биоматериал в зарубежные лаборатории, способной выполнять весь комплекс исследований первого (массового) этапа скрининга, а также уточняющую диагностику НБО с использованием методов газовой хроматографии/масс-спектрометрии, высокоэффективной жидкостной хроматографии, определение активности ферментов и молекулярно-генетические исследования, в сентябре 2017 была начата разработка Программы усовершенствования диагностики наследственных болезней обмена веществ у новорожденных и детей старшего возраста в Украине. Инициаторами этой Программы являются Национальная академия медицинских наук Украины, ВОО «Ассоциация педиатров Украины», ВОО «Ассоциация неонатологов Украины», ГУ «ИПАГ имени академика О.М. Лукьяновой НАМН Украины», медицинские университеты и региональные лечебно-профилактические учреждения.Цель Программы – расширение до 29 нозологий перечня наследственных болезней обмена веществ, диагностируемых у новорожденных и детей старшего возраста, обеспечение своевременного медицинского сопровождения и лечения выявленных больных, что позволит снизить уровень неонатальной, младенческой и детской смертности и инвалидности. Программа базируется на следующих принципах: (i) четкое распределение сфер ответственности исполнителей, регламентированных рабочими процессами и процедурами скрининга; (ii) электронный документооборот с фиксацией движения биоматериала от момента отбора до выдачи результатов лабораторных измерений, документирование результатов их экспертной оценки и принятого решения относительно дальнейших действий; (iii) документированная обратная связь с заказчиком исследований с целью сообщения результатов и их экспертной оценки; (iv) создание информационной базы данных для расчета предельных уровней концентраций маркерных соединений (cut-off) для украинской популяции с целью снижения количества ложноотрицательных и ложноположительных результатов.Финансирование Программы планируется осуществлять за счет средств региональных бюджетов, внебюджетных фондов, собственных средств родителей.Выполнение подготовительного этапа Программы было начато весной 2018 года. Запуск пилотной части Программы в 5 регионах: Киев, Киевская область, Луганская и Донецкая области и г. Черновцы, - запланирован в апреле 2019. Расширение Программы по всей территории Украины планируется завершить в конце 2020 года. ; Рівень дитячої смертності в Україні прогресивно знижується протягом останнього десятиріччя, але лишається дуже високим у порівнянні з країнами Європейського Союзу. Показник смертності немовлят першого року життя в Україні у 2,5-3 рази вищий, ніж у країнах ЄС, при цьому рівень смертності новонароджених протягом першого місяця життя перевищує середньоєвропейський у 6,6 разів. Це свідчить про суттєве відставання нашої країни у впровадженні сучасних стандартів надання медичної допомоги як вагітним жінкам, так і новонародженим з використанням сучасних методологій діагностики та лікування.Одним з найбільш ефективних напрямків діяльності, яка забезпечила суттєве зниження рівня дитячої смертності та інвалідності у розвинутих країнах світу стало впровадження розширеного масового скринінгу новонароджених з метою виявлення спадкових хвороб обміну речовин (СХОР) – орфанних захворювань, які виникають внаслідок генетичних дефектів ферментів. Наявність СХОР, зазвичай, не вдається встановити при лікарському огляді новонароджених через відсутність клінічних симптомів. Діагностують СХОР двома способами: (і) по клінічним проявам у формі «катастроф неонатального періоду» та синдрому раптової смерті немовлят, (іі) по результатам біохімічного обстеження крові новонароджених (скринінгу). Затримка або помилки в діагностиці цих захворювань часто призводять до незворотних пошкоджень багатьох органів і, в першу чергу, головного мозку (неврологічні порушення, психічний регрес, слабоумство).Неонатальний скринінг – вимірювання у крові новонароджених концентрацій певного набору речовин, які характеризують ключові процеси білкового, вуглеводного та ліпідного обміну з метою раннього виявлення і початку лікування дітей зі СХОР та запобігання їх інвалідизації було розпочато у 60-х роках минулого століття у США з однієї хвороби – фенілкетонурії. Сьогодні програми неонатального скринінгу впроваджені більш, ніж в 50 країнах світу та забезпечують діагностику понад 45 СХОР. Значне (у 8-10 разів) розширення кількості СХОР, що можуть бути виявлені при дослідженні висушених на фільтрувальному папері плям крові, стало можливим завдяки впровадженню високопродуктивного методу тандемної мас-спектрометрії (ТМС) наприкінці 90-х років минулого століття. На відміну від імунофлюорометричного методу, який дозволяє визначати один показник в одній пробі крові, ТМС дозволяє вимірювати концентрації декількох десятків речовин в одній пробі крові.На теперішній час в Україні скринінг новонароджених впроваджено лише для 4 захворювань: фенілкетонурії, вродженого гіпотиреозу, адреногенітального синдрому та муковісцидозу, який проводиться з використанням низькопродуктивного імунофлюорометричного методу. В окремих випадках розширений скринінг новонароджених з використанням методу ТМС виконується на комерційній основі в зарубіжних лабораторіях. При цьому, згідно з Законом України № 2461 «Про забезпечення профілактики та лікування рідкісних захворювань» від 15.04.2014 та Наказами МОЗУ № 778 від 27.10.2014, № 919 від 30.12.2015 та № 731 від 29.06.2017, «Перелік рідкісних (орфанних) захворювань, що призводять до скорочення тривалості життя хворих або їх інвалідизації та для яких існують визнані методи лікування» включає більше, ніж 60 спадкових хвороб обміну речовин. Це свідчить про значне відставання нашої країни в питанні, яке, крім етичного та медичного, має важливе соціальне та економічне значення.Ключовим питанням впровадження розширеного скринінгу новонароджених з використанням високопродуктивного і точного методу ТМС в Україні є відсутність у державних медико-генетичних лабораторіях сучасного аналітичного обладнання та допоміжної інфраструктури, а також фахівців-аналітиків з певним рівнем підготовки. ТМС – технічно складний метод, який вимагає використання коштовного вакуумного та хроматографічного обладнання, спеціального програмного забезпечення, реагентів з ізотопними мітками, високочистих газів, сервісного обслуговування з залученням закордонних фахівців, а також кваліфікованого персоналу.З огляду на наявність приватної клініко-діагностичної лабораторії, яка виконує ТМС-аналізи в Україні, а не транспортує біоматеріал в закордонні лабораторії та здатна виконувати весь комплекс досліджень першого (масового) етапу скринінгу, а також уточнюючу діагностику СХОР з використанням методів газової хроматографії/мас-спектрометрії, високоефективної рідинної хроматографії, визначення активності ферментів та молекулярно-генетичні дослідження, у вересні 2017 р. було розпочато розробку Програми удосконалення діагностики спадкових хвороб обміну речовин у новонароджених і дітей старшого віку в Україні. Ініціаторами цієї Програми є Національна академія медичних наук України, ВГО «Асоціація педіатрів України», ВГО «Асоціація неонатологів України», ДУ «ІПАГ імені академіка О.М. Лук'янової НАМН України», медичні університети та регіональні лікувально-профілактичні заклади.Мета Програми – розширення до 29 нозологій переліку спадкових хвороб обміну речовин, які виявляються у новонароджених та дітей старшого віку, забезпечення своєчасного медичного супроводу та лікування виявлених хворих, що дозволить знизити рівень неонатальної, малюкової й дитячої смертності та інвалідності. Програма базується на наступних принципах: (і) чіткий розподіл відповідальності виконавців, регламентований робочими процесами та процедурами скринінгу; (іі) електронний документообіг з фіксацією руху біоматеріалу від моменту відбору до видачі результатів лабораторних визначень, документування результатів їх експертної оцінки та прийнятого рішення стосовно подальших дій; (ііі) документований зворотній зв'язок з замовником досліджень з повідомленням результатів та їх експертної оцінки; (iv) створення інформаційної бази даних для розрахунку граничних рівнів концентрацій маркерних сполук (cut-off) для української популяції з метою зниження кількості хибно-негативних та хибно-позитивних визначень.Фінансування Програми планується здійснювати за рахунок коштів регіональних бюджетів, позабюджетних фондів, власних коштів батьків.Виконання підготовчого етапу Програми було розпочато на весні 2018 року. Запуск пілотної частини Програми у 5 регіонах: м. Київ, Київська область, Луганська та Донецька області та м. Чернівці, – запланований у квітні 2019 р. Розширення Програми по всій території України планується завершити наприкінці 2020 року.

The infant mortality rate in Ukraine has been progressively decreasing over the past decade, but remains very high compared with the countries of the European Union. The mortality rate of infants in the first year of life in Ukraine is 2.5–3 times higher than in the EU countries, while the mortality rate of newborns during the first month of life exceeds the average European level by 6.6 times. This indicates a significant backlog of our country in the implementation of modern standards of medical care for both pregnant women and newborns using modern diagnostic and treatment methodologies.One of the most effective way that allowed to reduce significantly infant mortality and disability rates in the developed countries of the world proved to be introduction of expanded newborn screening as a tool of early detection of wide spectrum of inherited metabolic disorders (IMD) – orphan diseases caused by genetic defects of particular enzymes leading to alterations in specific metabolic pathways. As a rule, IMDs occurrence cannot be established during medical examination of newborns due to the absence of clinical symptoms. Therefore, IMDs are diagnosed in two ways: (i) with clinical manifestation in the form of "neonatal catastrophes" and/or sudden infant death syndrome, (ii) according to the results of a biochemical examination of the blood of all (asymptomatic) newborns (i.e. screening). Delays or errors in the diagnosis of these diseases often lead to irreversible damage of many organs, first of all, the brain (neurological deficits, mental retardation, oligophrenia). Newborn screening – measurement in dried blood spots, sampled in asymptomatic newborns, concentrations of a specific set of substances which characterize key processes of protein, carbohydrate and lipid metabolism as a tool of early IMDs identification and prompt treatment initiation of affected children to prevent metabolic decompensation episodes and disability development was started in the 1960s in the United States with just one disease – phenylketonuria.By now, newborn screening programs have been implemented in more than 50 countries of the world and provide diagnostics of more than 45 IMDs. A significant (8–10 times) expanding the spectrum of IMDs that can be detected upon examination of dried blood spots on filter paper has been achieved by application of a high-throughput quantitative bioanalysis method – tandem mass spectrometry (TMS) in the late 1990s. Unlike routinely applied immunofluorimetric method allowing to measure just one biochemical agent in one blood sample, TMS allowed to analyze concentrations of several dozen substances in one dried blood spot.Currently, in Ukraine newborn screening is carried out for 4 diseases: phenylketonuria, congenital hypothyroidism, congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and cystic fibrosis using the low-throughput immunofluorimetric method. In some cases, expanded newborn screening using TMS method is performed on a commercial basis in foreign laboratories. At the same time, according to the Law of Ukraine No. 2461 "On ensuring the prevention and treatment of rare diseases" dated April 15, 2014, and the Orders of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine No. 778 dated 10.27.2014, No. 919 dated December 30, 2015, and No. 731 dated June 29, 2017, "The list of rare (orphan) diseases, that lead to a reduction of patient's lifespan or their disability, and for these diseases there are well-established methods of treatment" comprises more than 60 inherited metabolic disorders.This indicates a significant backlog of our country in the issue of not only ethical and medical significance, but great social and economic importance.The key issue of the expanded newborn screening implementation using high-throughput and accurate TMS method in Ukraine is the absence of modern analytical instruments and supplementary equipment in the state medico-genetic laboratories, as well as analysts with sufficient level of training. TMS is a technically complex method based on application of expensive vacuum and chromatographic equipment, special software, isotopic labeling reagents, high-purity gases, instruments maintenance with the aid of foreign experts, as well as qualified lab staff.Such private clinical diagnostic laboratory, where TMS-measurements are performed routinely at site and biomaterials are not transferred abroad exists in Ukraine. This laboratory is capable to perform the full range of measurements at the initial stage of newborn screening (TMS-analysis) and the secondary confirmatory testing using gas-chromatography/mass-spectrometry (GC/MS) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods, as well as enzymes activity assessment and molecular-genetic studies. On the basis of reached agreement in September 2017 it was started the development of the Program of improving the diagnostics of inherited metabolic diseases in newborns and older children in Ukraine. This Program has been initiated by the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine with the participation of "Association of Pediatricians of Ukraine" and "Association of Neonatologists of Ukraine", as well as membership of the "Institute of Pediatrics, Obstetrics and Gynecology named after academician O.M. Lukyanova of NAMS of Ukraine", medical universities and regional health-care providers.The purpose of the Program is to expand up to 29 the list of inherited metabolic disorders to be diagnosed in newborns and older children that allows early start of treatment and follow-up of affected patients. Wide implementation of the Program allows reducing the levels of neonatal, infant and child mortality and disability.The Program is based on the following principles: (i) a clear distribution of the responsibilities between participants considering newborn screening procedures and processes; (ii) implementation of electronic document management system to register transferring of biomaterial from the moment of sampling to presentation of laboratory measurement results, it's expert evaluation and medical recommendations for further actions; (iii) documented customer feedback to report the results and it's expert evaluation; (iv) creation of the database for calculating the threshold concentrations of biochemical markers and its' ratios (cut-off) for the Ukrainian population in order to reduce the number of false-negative and false-positive results.Financing of the Program have relied on funding of regional budgets, extra-budgetary funds and own funds of parents.The implementation of the preparatory phase of the Program was launched in Spring, 2018. The launch of the pilot part of the Program in 5 regions: Kiev, Kiev Region, Lugansk and Donetsk Regions, and the city Chernivtsi is scheduled for April 2019. The program is planned to be expanded throughout Ukraine at the end of 2020. ; Уровень детской смертности в Украине прогрессивно снижается в течение последнего десятилетия, но остается очень высоким по сравнению со странами Европейского Союза. Показатель смертности младенцев первого года жизни в Украине в 2,5-3 раза выше, чем в странах ЕС, при этом уровень смертности новорожденных в течение первого месяца жизни превышает среднеевропейский в 6,6 раз. Это свидетельствует о существенном отставании нашей страны во внедрении современных стандартов оказания медицинской помощи, как беременным женщинам, так и новорожденным с использованием современных методологий диагностики и лечения.Одним из наиболее эффективных направлений деятельности, которая обеспечила существенное снижение уровня детской смертности и инвалидности в развитых странах мира, стало внедрение расширенного массового скрининга новорожденных с целью выявления наследственных болезней обмена веществ (НБО) – орфанных заболеваний, которые возникают вследствие генетических дефектов ферментов. Наличие НБО, как правило, не удается установить при врачебном осмотре новорожденных из-за отсутствия клинических симптомов. Диагностируют НБО двумя способами: (i) по клиническим проявлениям в форме «катастроф неонатального периода» и синдрома внезапной смерти младенцев, (ii) по результатам биохимического обследования крови новорожденных (скрининга). Задержка или ошибки в диагностике этих заболеваний часто приводят к необратимым повреждениям многих органов и, в первую очередь, головного мозга (неврологические нарушения, психическое регресс, слабоумие).Неонатальный скрининг – измерение в крови новорожденных концентраций определенного набора веществ, характеризующих ключевые процессы белкового, углеводного и липидного обмена с целью раннего выявления и начала лечения детей с НБО и предотвращения их инвалидизации было начато в 60-х годах прошлого века в США с одной болезни – фенилкетонурии. Сегодня программы неонатального скрининга внедрены более, чем в 50 странах мира и обеспечивают диагностику более 45 НБО. Значительное (в 8-10 раз) расширение количества НБО, которые могут быть обнаружены при исследовании высушенных на фильтровальной бумаге пятен крови, стало возможным благодаря внедрению высокопроизводительного метода тандемной масс-спектрометрии (ТМС) в конце 90-х годов прошлого века. В отличие от иммунофлуориметрического метода, который позволяет определять один показатель в одной пробе крови, ТМС позволяет измерять концентрации нескольких десятков веществ в одной пробе крови.В настоящее время в Украине скрининг новорожденных ведется по 4-м заболеваниям: фенилкетонурии, врожденному гипотиреозу, адреногенитальному синдрому и муковисцидозу с использованием низкопродуктивного иммунофлуориметрического метода. В отдельных случаях расширенный скрининг новорожденных с использованием метода ТМС выполняется на коммерческой основе в зарубежных лабораториях. При этом, согласно Закону Украины № 2461 «Об обеспечении профилактики и лечения редких заболеваний» от 15.04.2014, и Приказов МОЗ Украины № 778 от 27.10.2014, № 919 от 30.12.2015 и № 731 от 29.06.2017, «Перечень редких (орфанных) заболеваний, приводящих к сокращению продолжительности жизни больных или их инвалидизации и для которых существуют признанные методы лечения» включает более 60 наследственных болезней обмена веществ. Это свидетельствует о значительном отставании нашей страны в вопросе, который, кроме этического и медицинского, имеет важное социальное и экономическое значение.Ключевым вопросом внедрения расширенного скрининга новорожденных с использованием высокопроизводительного и точного метода ТМС в Украине является отсутствие в государственных медико-генетических лабораториях современного аналитического оборудования и вспомогательной инфраструктуры, а также специалистов-аналитиков с достаточным уровнем подготовки. ТМС – технически сложный метод, требующий использования дорогостоящего вакуумного и хроматографического оборудования, специального программного обеспечения, реагентов с изотопными метками, высокочистых газов, сервисного обслуживания с привлечением иностранных специалистов, а также квалифицированного персонала.Учитывая наличие частной клинико-диагностической лаборатории, выполняющей ТМС-анализы в Украине, а не транспортирующей биоматериал в зарубежные лаборатории, способной выполнять весь комплекс исследований первого (массового) этапа скрининга, а также уточняющую диагностику НБО с использованием методов газовой хроматографии/масс-спектрометрии, высокоэффективной жидкостной хроматографии, определение активности ферментов и молекулярно-генетические исследования, в сентябре 2017 была начата разработка Программы усовершенствования диагностики наследственных болезней обмена веществ у новорожденных и детей старшего возраста в Украине. Инициаторами этой Программы являются Национальная академия медицинских наук Украины, ВОО «Ассоциация педиатров Украины», ВОО «Ассоциация неонатологов Украины», ГУ «ИПАГ имени академика О.М. Лукьяновой НАМН Украины», медицинские университеты и региональные лечебно-профилактические учреждения.Цель Программы – расширение до 29 нозологий перечня наследственных болезней обмена веществ, диагностируемых у новорожденных и детей старшего возраста, обеспечение своевременного медицинского сопровождения и лечения выявленных больных, что позволит снизить уровень неонатальной, младенческой и детской смертности и инвалидности. Программа базируется на следующих принципах: (i) четкое распределение сфер ответственности исполнителей, регламентированных рабочими процессами и процедурами скрининга; (ii) электронный документооборот с фиксацией движения биоматериала от момента отбора до выдачи результатов лабораторных измерений, документирование результатов их экспертной оценки и принятого решения относительно дальнейших действий; (iii) документированная обратная связь с заказчиком исследований с целью сообщения результатов и их экспертной оценки; (iv) создание информационной базы данных для расчета предельных уровней концентраций маркерных соединений (cut-off) для украинской популяции с целью снижения количества ложноотрицательных и ложноположительных результатов.Финансирование Программы планируется осуществлять за счет средств региональных бюджетов, внебюджетных фондов, собственных средств родителей.Выполнение подготовительного этапа Программы было начато весной 2018 года. Запуск пилотной части Программы в 5 регионах: Киев, Киевская область, Луганская и Донецкая области и г. Черновцы, - запланирован в апреле 2019. Расширение Программы по всей территории Украины планируется завершить в конце 2020 года. ; Рівень дитячої смертності в Україні прогресивно знижується протягом останнього десятиріччя, але лишається дуже високим у порівнянні з країнами Європейського Союзу. Показник смертності немовлят першого року життя в Україні у 2,5-3 рази вищий, ніж у країнах ЄС, при цьому рівень смертності новонароджених протягом першого місяця життя перевищує середньоєвропейський у 6,6 разів. Це свідчить про суттєве відставання нашої країни у впровадженні сучасних стандартів надання медичної допомоги як вагітним жінкам, так і новонародженим з використанням сучасних методологій діагностики та лікування.Одним з найбільш ефективних напрямків діяльності, яка забезпечила суттєве зниження рівня дитячої смертності та інвалідності у розвинутих країнах світу стало впровадження розширеного масового скринінгу новонароджених з метою виявлення спадкових хвороб обміну речовин (СХОР) – орфанних захворювань, які виникають внаслідок генетичних дефектів ферментів. Наявність СХОР, зазвичай, не вдається встановити при лікарському огляді новонароджених через відсутність клінічних симптомів. Діагностують СХОР двома способами: (і) по клінічним проявам у формі «катастроф неонатального періоду» та синдрому раптової смерті немовлят, (іі) по результатам біохімічного обстеження крові новонароджених (скринінгу). Затримка або помилки в діагностиці цих захворювань часто призводять до незворотних пошкоджень багатьох органів і, в першу чергу, головного мозку (неврологічні порушення, психічний регрес, слабоумство).Неонатальний скринінг – вимірювання у крові новонароджених концентрацій певного набору речовин, які характеризують ключові процеси білкового, вуглеводного та ліпідного обміну з метою раннього виявлення і початку лікування дітей зі СХОР та запобігання їх інвалідизації було розпочато у 60-х роках минулого століття у США з однієї хвороби – фенілкетонурії. Сьогодні програми неонатального скринінгу впроваджені більш, ніж в 50 країнах світу та забезпечують діагностику понад 45 СХОР. Значне (у 8-10 разів) розширення кількості СХОР, що можуть бути виявлені при дослідженні висушених на фільтрувальному папері плям крові, стало можливим завдяки впровадженню високопродуктивного методу тандемної мас-спектрометрії (ТМС) наприкінці 90-х років минулого століття. На відміну від імунофлюорометричного методу, який дозволяє визначати один показник в одній пробі крові, ТМС дозволяє вимірювати концентрації декількох десятків речовин в одній пробі крові.На теперішній час в Україні скринінг новонароджених впроваджено лише для 4 захворювань: фенілкетонурії, вродженого гіпотиреозу, адреногенітального синдрому та муковісцидозу, який проводиться з використанням низькопродуктивного імунофлюорометричного методу. В окремих випадках розширений скринінг новонароджених з використанням методу ТМС виконується на комерційній основі в зарубіжних лабораторіях. При цьому, згідно з Законом України № 2461 «Про забезпечення профілактики та лікування рідкісних захворювань» від 15.04.2014 та Наказами МОЗУ № 778 від 27.10.2014, № 919 від 30.12.2015 та № 731 від 29.06.2017, «Перелік рідкісних (орфанних) захворювань, що призводять до скорочення тривалості життя хворих або їх інвалідизації та для яких існують визнані методи лікування» включає більше, ніж 60 спадкових хвороб обміну речовин. Це свідчить про значне відставання нашої країни в питанні, яке, крім етичного та медичного, має важливе соціальне та економічне значення.Ключовим питанням впровадження розширеного скринінгу новонароджених з використанням високопродуктивного і точного методу ТМС в Україні є відсутність у державних медико-генетичних лабораторіях сучасного аналітичного обладнання та допоміжної інфраструктури, а також фахівців-аналітиків з певним рівнем підготовки. ТМС – технічно складний метод, який вимагає використання коштовного вакуумного та хроматографічного обладнання, спеціального програмного забезпечення, реагентів з ізотопними мітками, високочистих газів, сервісного обслуговування з залученням закордонних фахівців, а також кваліфікованого персоналу.З огляду на наявність приватної клініко-діагностичної лабораторії, яка виконує ТМС-аналізи в Україні, а не транспортує біоматеріал в закордонні лабораторії та здатна виконувати весь комплекс досліджень першого (масового) етапу скринінгу, а також уточнюючу діагностику СХОР з використанням методів газової хроматографії/мас-спектрометрії, високоефективної рідинної хроматографії, визначення активності ферментів та молекулярно-генетичні дослідження, у вересні 2017 р. було розпочато розробку Програми удосконалення діагностики спадкових хвороб обміну речовин у новонароджених і дітей старшого віку в Україні. Ініціаторами цієї Програми є Національна академія медичних наук України, ВГО «Асоціація педіатрів України», ВГО «Асоціація неонатологів України», ДУ «ІПАГ імені академіка О.М. Лук'янової НАМН України», медичні університети та регіональні лікувально-профілактичні заклади.Мета Програми – розширення до 29 нозологій переліку спадкових хвороб обміну речовин, які виявляються у новонароджених та дітей старшого віку, забезпечення своєчасного медичного супроводу та лікування виявлених хворих, що дозволить знизити рівень неонатальної, малюкової й дитячої смертності та інвалідності. Програма базується на наступних принципах: (і) чіткий розподіл відповідальності виконавців, регламентований робочими процесами та процедурами скринінгу; (іі) електронний документообіг з фіксацією руху біоматеріалу від моменту відбору до видачі результатів лабораторних визначень, документування результатів їх експертної оцінки та прийнятого рішення стосовно подальших дій; (ііі) документований зворотній зв'язок з замовником досліджень з повідомленням результатів та їх експертної оцінки; (iv) створення інформаційної бази даних для розрахунку граничних рівнів концентрацій маркерних сполук (cut-off) для української популяції з метою зниження кількості хибно-негативних та хибно-позитивних визначень.Фінансування Програми планується здійснювати за рахунок коштів регіональних бюджетів, позабюджетних фондів, власних коштів батьків.Виконання підготовчого етапу Програми було розпочато на весні 2018 року. Запуск пілотної частини Програми у 5 регіонах: м. Київ, Київська область, Луганська та Донецька області та м. Чернівці, – запланований у квітні 2019 р. Розширення Програми по всій території України планується завершити наприкінці 2020 року.