Suchergebnisse

During the euro crisis policy-makers tried to re-establish credibility with austere budgets. Studies of austerity have been plagued by measurement and endogeneity problems. We provide a direct test of the effect of austerity on confidence by calculating the immediate impact of austere budgets on government bonds. We build a unique database of budget dates and conduct event studies of 223 (future) Eurozone budgets. Since austere budgets are enacted in particular circumstances, we use a treatment effects design to measure markets' responses. Our findings are discouraging for the argument that austerity can provide a positive credibility shock. Markets do not welcome austerity. On the contrary, austere budgets are associated with substantial interest rate increases. These results underline how constrained governments are in debt crises.

Though the impact of deliberative polling on attitude change has received ample attention in the literature, micro models of attitude change before, during, and after deliberation are understudied. The relative strength of three competing views of the way attitudes change—the heuristics, systematic, and deliberative models—is assessed, using the quasi-experimental data of the EuroPolis deliberative project and comparing a group of people who participated in the deliberative poll with a control group. The results are: (1) in line with the systematic model, predispositions play a larger role than in the heuristics or deliberative models; (2) predispositions play a different role for participants and nonparticipants; (3) predispositions shape attitude formation in different ways depending on the issue at hand. On some issues the beliefs of participants change as a consequence of deliberation and become more complex and nuanced than before. This is, however, not the case for immigration issues where deliberation seems to strengthen predispositions.

This article assesses the effects of deliberation and increased political knowledge on vote choice. The observed knowledge gains result from participation in a deliberative experiment in the context of second-order elections, which facilitates realistic estimates of information gains that can be expected if citizens were politically more engaged than they actually are. Using survey data on 333 participants in the deliberative experiment and 729 respondents from a control group, we find that deliberation is associated with significant changes in vote choice. Specifically, participating in the deliberative event is related to an increased likelihood of vote switching in favour of Green parties. However, there is no support for the expectation that changes in citizens' party choices are related to the observed increase in political knowledge.

This article tests the role of deliberation in potentially reducing the gender gap in knowledge. It compares gender differences in knowledge of both participants and non-participants before and after the Europolis deliberative event took place by making use of the difference in difference estimation method. Findings show that deliberation increases the political knowledge of participants (especially women) suggesting that it contributes to reducing the gender gap in knowledge by providing participants not only with information and awareness about the topics discussed but also with confidence when answering factual knowledge questions. These results suggest the need to conduct further research about the way in which information–rich contexts might reduce other potential inequalities in sources of knowledge.

This study argues that the euro area more than doubled trade among its members, but this process was delayed and fitful. The estimates in this article are close to those obtained by Rose and Frankel, despite the usage of methods developed by their critics. Furthermore, the euro area has increased the trade of its Mediterranean members more than the trade of other member states; it also raised trade with non-members by some 35%. The article innovates mainly by constructing a more appropriate control group to the euro area, applying better controls for the Single Market, estimating differences of trade, studying the effects of the euro on different member states, using quantile regression and naturally by relying on more recent data.