Suchergebnisse

Abstract
This article explores the influence of personal values and ontological beliefs on people's perceptions of possible abrupt changes in the Earth's climate system and on their climate change mitigation preferences. The authors focus on four key areas of risk perception: concern about abrupt climate change as distinct to climate change in general, the likelihood of abrupt climate changes, fears of abrupt climate changes, and preferences in how to mitigate abrupt climate changes. Using cultural theory as an interpretative framework, a multimethodological approach was adopted in exploring these areas: 287 respondents at the University of East Anglia (UK) completed a three-part quantitative questionnaire, with 15 returning to participate in qualitative focus groups to discuss the issues raised in more depth. Supporting the predictions of cultural theory, egalitarians' values and beliefs were consistently associated with heightened perceptions of the risks posed by abrupt climate change. Yet many believed abrupt climate change to be capricious, irrespective of their psychometrically attributed worldviews or "ways of life." Mitigation preferences—across all ways of life—were consistent with the "hegemonic myth" dominating climate policy, with many advocating conventional regulatory or market-based approaches. Moreover, a strong fatalistic narrative emerged from within abrupt climate change discourses, with frequent referrals to helplessness, societal collapse, and catastrophe.

How do workers build careers across organizations? We propose that increased worker mobility means that workers may now build their careers using interorganizational career ladders, working in certain kinds of organizations earlier in a career and in other kinds of organizations later in the career. We develop a matching framework that predicts such interorganizational moves based on how systematic changes in workers' needs and resources over the course of their careers alter the kinds of organizations they will best match. We specifically propose that workers will be more likely to work for organizations that provide more training early in their careers, and work for organizations that have higher demands for skills later in their careers. We use this argument to make three broad predictions: first, that interorganizational transitions are more likely to take place from larger to smaller workplaces, and into organizations in industries that employ a higher proportion of workers in the focal occupation; second, that such skill-based career paths are more common where the labor market provides more opportunities that reward those skills; and third, that the nature of external opportunities will disproportionately affect turnover from organizations on the lower rungs of the career ladder. Data from the career histories of college-educated information technology workers support our hypotheses.

AbstractThe aims of this research were to develop and validate a Brief Attachment Adjective Checklist (BAAC) to represent the four category model of attachment, compare it with a current measure of attachment, and use both to predict relationship satisfaction. A 32-item operationalisation of a hypothesised four-category model was analysed using a principal component analysis. Results of Study 1 (n = 174) indicated the items of the four-category model reflected good factor structure. Comparison with the four-paragraph Relationship Questionnaire (RQ) showed low correlation between the two operationalisations, suggesting that they were measuring different aspects of attachment. Analyses showed that the BAAC was a weak but better predictor of relationship satisfaction than the RQ. A confirmatory factor analysis in Study 2 (n = 131) refined the structure of the BAAC. The pattern of correlations showing relative independence of the BAAC and the RQ in Study 1 was also shown in Study 2. The frequency of respondents in dominant attachment categories of the RQ was consistent with previous research but the frequency of respondents in dominant attachment categories differed for RQ compared with the BAAC. The replication of the prediction of relationship satisfaction in Study 2 showed that both measures were weak predictors of relationship satisfaction but the BAAC was a better predictor than the RQ.

This experiment tested the combined impact of premerger status (low, high) and relative representation (low, high) on identification with a merged group and on bias expressed towards members of the merger partner. In phase 1, 111 university students were assigned to a premerger team of "inductive" thinkers. Premerger status was manipulated by informing participants that their team had performed worse or better than a deductionist team on a decision-making task. In phase 2, the participants' premerger team was supposedly merged with this deductionist team to form a new merger team of analyst thinkers. Relative representation was manipulated by preserving either most or none of the characteristics of the premerger team in the new merger team. The results revealed a significant interaction between premerger status and relative representation on both postmerger identification and ingroup bias. Participants belonging to a high premerger status group confronted with a low relative representation reported less postmerger identification and more bias than participants in the other three conditions. Moreover, relative representation, but not premerger status, moderated the relation between postmerger identification and ingroup bias. More specifically, when relative representation was high, postmerger identification and ingroup bias were positively related. By contrast, when relative representation was low, postmerger identification and ingroup bias were negatively related. These results confirm the predictions based on the Ingroup Projection Model.

Abstract. We used the earthquake catalogue of INGV extending from 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2009 to detect significant changes before and after the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila mainshock (Mw=6.3) in the seismicity rate, r (events/day), and in b-value. The statistical z-test and Utsu-test were applied to identify significant changes. From the beginning of 2006 up to the end of October 2008 the activity was relatively stable and remained in the state of background seismicity (r=1.14, b=1.09). From 28 October 2008 up to 26 March 2009, r increased significantly to 2.52 indicating weak foreshock sequence; the b-value did not changed significantly. The weak foreshock sequence was spatially distributed within the entire seismogenic area. In the last 10 days before the mainshock, strong foreshock signal became evident in space (dense epicenter concentration in the hanging-wall of the Paganica fault), in time (drastic increase of r to 21.70 events/day) and in size (b-value dropped significantly to 0.68). The significantly high seismicity rate and the low b-value in the entire foreshock sequence make a substantial difference from the background seismicity. Also, the b-value of the strong foreshock stage (last 10 days before mainshock) was significantly lower than that in the aftershock sequence. Our results indicate the important value of the foreshock sequences for the prediction of the mainshock.

In the paper we analyze the economic, social, cultural, institutional and political factors that determine regional demand for services like "insurance". As economic factors, we analyze the impact of non-governmental credit over the insurance market. Development of an econometric model is based not only on the actual loan methodology (involving the securities, life insurance for applicants and guarantors), but also on direct connections from the range of credit risk insurance products. On the other hand, non-government credit growth, by enhancing repayment commitments, leads to a reduction in financial resources that can be used, for example, to voluntary/optional insurances, not directly linked with loan process. Last but not least, above-mentioned interferences put footprint on specific partnerships, such as – for example – bancassurance. The residues from the regression equation specific to each region can be explained by social and cultural characteristics. Based on these results, we considered two scenarios for the regional evolution of Romanian insurance market, first determined by the significant factors of this process (GDP/ capita, monthly nominal average wage/capita, population, size of distribution network) as they were outlined in a previous study, the second taking into account the new predictions of non-governmental loan in terms of economic and financial crisis.

Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class of models for addressing questions regarding the impact and consequences of alternative monetary policies they are nowadays widely used for forecasting and policy analysis at central banks and other institutions. In this paper we provide a brief description of the two main aggregate euro area models at the ECB. Both models share a common core but their detailed specification differs reflecting their specific focus and use. The New Area Wide Model (NAWM) has a more elaborate international block, which is useful for conditioning the euro area projections on assumptions about foreign economic activity, prices and interest rates and to widen the scope for scenario analysis. The Christiano, Motto and Rostagno (CMR) model instead has a more developed financial sector, which allows it to be used for monetary and financial scenarios and for cross checking. Based on the comparison of two models we find a broad agreement on the qualitative predictions they make, although, in quantitative terms, there are some differences. However, the perspectives provided by the two models are often complementary, rather than conflicting.

Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of aggregation of initially independent villages into larger and more complex political units that started several thousand years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and empires. Here we build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro's (1970) argument to develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies via warfare. In our model polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of villages whose size, power, and complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal reorganization (via promotion and linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our model is continuous stochastic cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size, wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by two parameters, one of which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between and within-polity conflicts, and the other is the chief's expected time in power. Our results demonstrate that the stability of large and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the conflicts are mostly determined by the polities' wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and accepted means of succession, and if control mechanisms are internally specialized.

The 1000 Genomes Project, an international collaboration, is sequencing the whole genome of approximately 2,000 individuals from different worldwide populations. The central goal of this project is to describe most of the genetic variation that occurs at a population frequency greater than 1%. The results of this project will allow scientists to identify genetic variation at an unprecedented degree of resolution and will also help improve the imputation methods for determining unobserved genetic variants that are not represented on current genotyping arrays. By identifying novel or rare functional genetic variants, researchers will be able to pinpoint disease-causing genes in genomic regions initially identified by association studies. This level of detailed sequence information will also improve our knowledge of the evolutionary processes and the genomic patterns that have shaped the human species as we know it today. The new data will also lay the foundation for future clinical applications, such as prediction of disease susceptibility and drug response. However, the forthcoming availability of whole genome sequences at affordable prices will raise ethical concerns and pose potential threats to individual privacy. Nevertheless, we believe that these potential risks are outweighed by the benefits in terms of diagnosis and research, so long as rigorous safeguards are kept in place through legislation that prevents discrimination on the basis of the results of genetic testing.

One of the main key sectors where it is vital to reduce the energy consumption, is the existent building stock. The European Union has recognized this issue in 2002 with the entrance into force of the Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings where important measures to limit the buildings primary energy consumption are foreseen. Within this context, it was initiated a new project focusing the development of a new retrofit solution – a prefabricated façade retrofit module. This solution is, to some extent, a by-product of the authors' participation on the International Energy Agency project IEA ECBCS Annex50 and on the FCT funded project PTDC/ECM/67373/2006. In order to achieve a better support for the design of the solution and for the module thermal optimization, there were applied some computational tools like Google SketchUp® for 3D modelling to test the design options and eQuest® tool for energy performance prediction of several construction options and to assure their accordance with the applicable regulations. At the moment, a prototype is being developed and built in the Test Cells of University of Minho in order to carry out several "in-situ" thermal performance measurements. ; iiSBE Portugal, Universidade do Minho, Instituto Superior Técnico, cib, UNEP, InCI, STAP, FCT, IRHU, CIN, Soares da Costa, DST, CASAIS, energypark, SECIL, CIMPOR, Turismo de Portugal ...

La Aveja en el Jardín Florido was a publication which appeared in Valencia in 1811. It shows how a publication type of the eighteenth century press changed because of the struggle between French and Spaniards. The author, Francisco Xavier Ribera Aravitg, was a doctor from Sitges, Catalonia, interested in prediction and calendars. His writings in Valencia, in the middle of the Peninsular War, had its continuity twenty years later in some other calendars, with the same title, which must have been success among the Catalonian readers during the thirties and forties of the nineteenth century. But the big difference between the issues of the thirties and the Peninsular War ones was the topics on politics. ; En 1811 apareció en Valencia una publicación que muestra hasta qué punto un ejemplo del «periodismo» del siglo XVIII se vio afectado por la guerra de la Indepen­dencia. La Aveja en el Jardín Florido fue obra de Francisco Xavier Ribera y Aravitg, un médico de Sitges interesado en los pronósticos y calendarios. Su obra en Valencia, inmer­sa en medio del conflicto entre franceses y españoles, tuvo su continuación veinte años más tarde en calendarios que debieron de tener bastante éxito en la Cataluña de los años treinta y cuarenta pero que, a diferencia del ejemplar de 1811, no entraron en política.

JEL Classification: D64, D72, Z13, H3 and J2.-- Trabajo publicado como artículo en Journal of Public Economics 94(9-10): 612-627 (2010).-- http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2010.06.003 ; We examine the interactions between individual behavior, sentiments and the social contract in a model of rational voting over redistribution. Agents have moral \work values". Individuals' self-esteem and social consideration of others are endogenously determined comparing behaviors to moral standards. Attitudes toward redistribution depend on self-interest and social preferences. We characterize the politico-economic equilibria in which sentiments, labor supply and redistribution are determined simultaneously. The equilibria feature di erent degrees of \social cohesion" and redistribution depending on pre-tax income inequality. In clustered equilibria the poor are held partly responsible for their low income since they work less than the moral standard and hence redistribution is low. The paper proposes a novel explanation for the emergence of di erent sentiments and social contracts across countries. The predictions appear broadly in line with well-documented di erences between the United States and Europe. ; Esteban is a member of the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and is grateful for support from the Generalitat de Catalunya and the CICYT (SEJ2006-00369) and from the Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. ; Peer reviewed

AbstractDuring the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and value-based attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: We examine whether the market assesses a lower level of information asymmetry to firms that are perceived to be monitored more intensely by members of the board of directors. We use changes in bid-ask spreads as proxies for changes in information asymmetry between the firm and the market around the time earnings are announced. Our study is innovative in its association of director monitoring with levels of information asymmetry as reflected in quoted spreads.
Our sample includes 145 firms included in the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Index (TSX-300). The TSX's hybrid market structure provides a unique international setting in which to examine the effects of governance on information asymmetry. Results indicate that the market attributes a lower level of information asymmetry to firms with a larger proportion of outside directors on the board. Contrary to our predictions, we find the larger the proportion of voting rights held by directors, the higher the level of information asymmetry attributed to the firm. We provide some evidence that a separate CEO/Chair leadership structure is associated with reduced information asymmetry. From a practice perspective, we are able to provide some preliminary insight into the potential value attributed by market participants to the imposition of regulation surrounding certain director monitoring activities.

This article develops an integrative framework for understanding gender-based group dynamics based on sex composition. The authors study decisions made by male and female members of a group to eliminate or promote other male and female group members. Study 1 uses game simulations modeled on the television show The Weakest Link to show how male and female players trade off individual versus group utility in a group setting and how such trade-offs affect group dynamics. They identify four patterns of sex-based group dynamics: old boys' club, queen bee, bounded rationality, and females as finalists but not winners. These patterns are part of a mosaic based on differences in sex composition and sex differences between male and female group members discriminating positively, negatively, or not at all against other male and female group members. The authors propose that differences in the degree of competition versus cooperation in the group, the initial sex composition, and the mean and variance of players' abilities by sex interactively determine which pattern will be noted. Study 2 uses observational data from The Weakest Link to test these predictions in a field setting. Implications for the motivational, cognitive, and strategic antecedents of gender effects based on sex composition of the group are discussed.