Patterns of Change in the Partisan Loyalties of Native Southerners: 1952-1972
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 39, Heft 3, S. 730-761
ISSN: 0022-3816
An attempt to reconcile the existence of widespread changes in partisan loyalties in the southern US with the theory of partisanship, which stipulates that party loyalty is an extremely stable attitude after early adulthood. Three mechanisms can act to bring about change: (1) interregional migration, (2) generational turnover (birth & death), & (3) individual conversion. Data were obtained separately from blacks & whites, from the national election studies conducted by the U of Michigan & made available through the facilities of the InterU Consortium for Political & Social Research. For blacks, interregional migration does little to explain a net change in partisanship, which moved from an "expected Democratic vote" of about 60% in 1960 to one of 85% in 1968, & then declined to about 77% in 1972. A 3-category control for age likewise reveals no effect on change in partisanship. The bulk of the observed shift appears to have been produced by the entrance of previously apolitical blacks into the electorate during a period of critical realignment (for blacks), which surrounded the 1964 election. It is clear that the factor that produced the realignment was the civil rights movement. Among whites, as among blacks, interregional migration & generational turnover can explain only a fraction of the change in the expected Democratic vote, which fell from about 73% in 1952 to about 61% in 1972. The youngest cohort is moving in the Republican direction about 50% faster than the older cohorts, but the simultaneous shift toward the Republican party identity among all groups indicates that a single dynamic is at work. The young are simply freer to respond, since they lack the socialization experiences of their elders & have not settled into a firm sense of partisanship. The dominant mechanism of change among whites is, therefore, individual conversion, seemingly related to the philosophical estrangement southern whites feel from the increasingly interventionist policies of the national Democratic Party. Change appears to be secular, rather than critical, & does not seem to hinge on the civil rights movement. The theoretical implication is that, while the traditional theory of partisanship explains much of what has happened in the South in the past two decades, particularly change in partisanship by blacks & young whites, it is clearly unable to explain change among older whites. The theory is therefore modified to include a reciprocal arrow between party identification & the voter's perception of issues & candidates: over an extended period of time, issues that continually & strongly favor one party can erode the sense of partisan loyalty to the other party. 10 Figures, 3 Tables. Modified AA.