Suchergebnisse

Este trabajo desarrolla modelos "VAR identificados" para Francia y España, con variables monetarias alemanas para identificar shocks de politica monetaria durante el periodo en el que el tipo de cambio esta casi totalmente controlado por el mecanismo de cambio del SME. Se prueban distintos supuestos identificadores para las interacciones contemporaneas de politica monetaria. Las respuestas impulso a shocks de politica monetaria y los parametros estimados de la funcion de reaccion monetaria sugieren que el esquema de identificacion que conlleva una reaccion contemporanea unilateral a politicas monetarias no alemanas al tipo de cambio respecto al marco y al tipo de interes alemanes, y el que conlleva reacciones contemporaneas de la autoridad monetaria no alemana y del tipo de interes aleman a los tipos de cambio bilaterales, parecen supuestos identificadores razonables en estos paises. (sk) (mac)

The Markov regime‐switching modelling framework, with time‐varying transition probabilities, is utilized to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System during the period 1979–98 (Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands). The output‐gap variability and the inflation variability variables are incorporated in the determination of the monetary policy preferences of the five countries. Empirical evidence is provided to show that although all the countries in our sample followed a credible monetary policy regarding price stability, they had different preferences regarding the trade‐off between the stabilization of output‐gap variability and inflation variability.

Eight major books are introduced and contributions to a range of topics from these and from elsewhere are considered. The topics include German leadership; capital controls and the 'new' EMS; existing national monetary policies; a possible Central Bank; and fiscal policy co-ordination. (SJK)

The international monetary system—the rules and conventions that govern financial relations between countries—is an important component of international relations. When monetary relations go well, other relations have a better chance of going well; when they go badly, other areas are likely to suffer too. Monetary relations have a pervasive influence on both domestic and international economic developments, and history is strewn with examples of monetary failure leading subsequently to economic and political upheaval. Recent years have seen considerable turmoil in international monetary relations, and a marked deterioration in relations between Europe, Japan, and America. Ideally, monetary relations should be inconspicuous, part of the background in a well-functioning system, taken for granted. Once they become visible and uncertain, something is wrong.