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In the past two weeks, the U.S. has carried out at least 10 rounds of airstrikes against Yemen's Houthis, who have responded with more attacks on Red Sea ships. The Biden administration argues that a "sustained campaign" of strikes is now necessary to protect the continued flow of global trade."These assaults, notably the unprecedented use of anti-ship ballistic missiles, have significantly disrupted the free flow of commerce and navigational rights in one of the globe's most critical waterways," a senior Pentagon official said Monday. There is some data to support this argument. So far, the Houthis have hijacked one ship and launched at least 34 attacks, none of which have led to casualties or major damage to the vessels. Fully 90% of container ships that would usually travel through the Suez Canal are now going around Africa, according to some analysts.The disruption also led to a 1.3% drop in global trade in December of last year, and uncertainty about Red Sea shipping has made it all the more difficult to get international aid into Sudan. Even China — not exactly a U.S. ally — has called for de-escalation in the Red Sea to get shipping back on track.But do the Houthi attacks really pose a major threat to world trade, as the Biden administration claims? If so, is that a good enough reason to risk further escalation by bombing the Houthis when less risky options are still available?RS put these questions to Eugene Gholz, a political science professor at Notre Dame University and an expert on the relationship between economic policy and national security. The following conversation has been edited for length and clarity.RS: You wrote in a recent article for the Cato Institute that "the cost of diverting shipping away from the Red Sea is not very significant in the grand scheme of the global economy." Can you tell me more about this argument?Gholz: It's easy to talk about huge increases in fuel and personnel costs in percentage terms. They could go up by 100%, which makes it seem like a dramatic increase in shipping costs. But those costs are actually quite small compared to the cost of the cargo on an average cargo ship. A full load of fuel for a medium-sized container ship costs a couple of million dollars. Having to say, sail around Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, even if it doubled the fuel cost, that would only add a couple of million dollars. Amortized across a billion dollars of value of cargo on an average container ship, it's a very marginal change in the cost to consumers of getting their product delivered. If you had two shipping lines, one of which bore twice as high a fuel cost as the other, that would have a significant competitive effect in the shipping liner industry, not in the industry of the cargo that's being carried. If everyone's fuel cost goes up in the shipping industry because they're all sailing around Africa, or if everyone's shipping cost goes up because they're paying slightly higher insurance premiums for going through the Red Sea, that doesn't have a competitive effect in the shipping industry. And it doesn't cause a big effect in consumer markets, because the cost of the consumer products is very, very marginally affected.RS: Do we have any data yet on how this is affecting the global economy as a whole? Or of increases in prices for regular people?Gholz: You would need very fine-grained data to try to find any effect. You see articles that say consumer prices have gone up in the last couple months. The Red Sea issue has been happening, but that's hardly the only thing that's been happening in the global economy, right? Disentangling the effects of the cost of sailing through the Red Sea or avoiding the Red Sea from all the other effects in the global economy is not plausible. What you have to do is think about directly measuring the marginal increase in costs due to the alleged disruption or adaptation for the Red Sea, rather than looking for the very blunt outcome measure of average global prices.RS: Do you have a sense of how expensive this operation is for the Pentagon and how it's affecting our stockpiles?Gholz: The military operation is kind of expensive. It's much more expensive than the cost of riding out shippers' adaptation to the Houthis' disruption. And it's much more expensive than what the Houthis are spending to try to create whatever disruption they can, which is very minimal. The Pentagon has released numbers into the current U.S. budget debate. They say that since October, they've spent $1.6 billion on this mission. That's a funny number. It includes a pretty substantial operations and maintenance cost, like the fuel for the ships and the aircraft that are operating in the Red Sea. They are using more food and fuel and maintenance.But the main cost is the weapons that they're expending, which are not part of the $1.6 billion that is in the current budget debate in Washington. We might fire multiple missiles to try to intercept one incoming Houthi missile, or we might fire multiple missiles or drop multiple bombs to try to hit one Houthi target to reduce their capability to launch missiles. Each of those missiles that we fire, let's say they cost a million dollars or more. That adds up.Let's say we attack a Houthi radar. Well, the Houthi radars are cheap. Some of their radars seem to be modified private commercial radars, things you could pick up at Bass Pro Shop for going out boating. They cost a few thousand dollars apiece, and we're hitting them with million dollar missiles. This is a bad cost trade-off.There's also risk. If this gets some Americans killed, if the Houthis got a lucky shot and they actually hurt someone, that's a huge cost. If the United States gets drawn further into the maelstrom of Yemeni politics, or if the American hawks satisfy their wildest dream and leverage this into getting the United States to attack Iran, that's an incredibly costly thing.RS: What would the economic impacts be if this spread to the Persian Gulf beyond the Red Sea?Gholz: Again, the cost of our likely response is much higher than the cost of the economic disruption. I've done a bunch of work about the real limits on Iranian military capability to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf. If it's just the Iranians taking potshots at oil tankers or container ships in the Persian Gulf, it's not a huge threat to the global economy, or it doesn't need to be unless we panic and overreact. But the cost of a war with Iran is potentially enormous. There are a whole lot of potential stages between full-blown regime change war and doing nothing, which is probably the economically effective response. There are some that are relatively low-cost responses, which are also probably not the likely U.S. responses, even if they would be more effective on a cost basis.RS: How do you respond to those who argue that the U.S. does have an essential responsibility to safeguard the flow of global commerce?Gholz: Well, we don't have a responsibility. We choose to claim that mission for ourselves, even though there isn't a lot of threat to global commerce. And we don't really protect global commerce. It's not like we run a convoy system for delivering commercial cargo all around the world and protecting them with American frigates. This is not the British-Spanish competition over the Treasure Fleet that led to the Spanish Armada.Shippers make routine decisions all the time about what routes to take, which risks to accept, which cargo to carry or not carry. They don't think about the role of the U.S. military in those things. The U.S. Navy is a big military, but it's not everything, everywhere, all at once. Shippers are just on their own.If you're deciding about a particular threat to commerce that you think is something that you could use gunboat diplomacy to respond to, the question you have to ask is, does it cost enough to global commerce to make it worth it for the United States to try to respond?There is an argument that, when the U.S. is making that decision, it should only think about the cost of the disruptions to the U.S. and the costs the U.S. would have to pay to stop them. There's also an altruistic view that says we should think about the cost to the global economy because we are the world's dominant power. If it doesn't cost us too much, we should gracefully and benevolently provide the service to the world of protecting the world's commerce. But even if you think the United States should be providing this global public good, that doesn't make every possible action effective and wise.RS: What would a better approach look like?Gholz: A better approach from the beginning would have been to let shippers make reasoned decisions about whether to transit the Red Sea or go around Africa. We should basically just leave the Houthis alone. If they take a few ineffective potshots that don't really hurt anybody, it's not worth it to respond.Yes, I would rather the Houthis weren't doing this. If we ignore it, maybe it'll go away; maybe it won't. But it doesn't cost that much to just leave it alone. The right response is to let people whose job it is to make decisions about ship routing, about insurance rates and evaluating risks, about time to market for different products, let these people do their job. This is their day-to-day, normal business. Many of them are good at it.

Hamas's attack into Israel and massacre of Israelis, followed by Israel's war of obliteration on Gaza backed by the United States, is a political earthquake in the Middle East. Its tremors are shaking up the politics of the Horn of Africa, bringing down an already tottering peace and security architecture. It's too early to discern the shape of the rubble, but we can already see the direction in which some of the pillars will fall.The most obvious impact is that the Israel-Palestine war has legitimized and invigorated protest across the wider region. Hamas showed that Israel was not invincible, and Palestine would no longer be invisible. Many in the Arab street — and Muslims more widely — are ready to overlook Hamas's atrocious record as a public authority and its embrace of terror, because it dared stand up to Israel, America, and Europe.Hamas's boldness has given a shot in the arm to Islamists, such as Somalia's al-Shabaab. As the African Union peacekeeping operation in Somalia draws down, al-Shabaab remains a threat— and will likely be emboldened to intensify its operations both in Somalia and neighboring Kenya.Kenyan President William Ruto gave strong backing to Israel while also calling for a ceasefire. For the U.S. and Europe, Kenya is now the anchor state for security in the Horn — but it desperately needs financial aid if it is to shoulder that burden.The war is consuming Egyptian attention and terrifies President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is treading a fine line between sponsoring pro-Palestinian protests and suppressing them.Red Sea SecurityThe Red Sea is strategic for Israel. One quarter of Israel's maritime trade is handled in its port of Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba, an inlet of the Red Sea. Eilat is Israel's back door, vital in case the Mediterranean coast is under threat. Israel has long seen the littoral countries of the Red Sea — Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia — as pieces in the jigsaw of its extended security frontier.Historically, Egypt has shared the same concern. Last year, revenues from the Suez Canal were $9.4 billion— its third largest foreign currency earner after remittances from Egyptians working in the Gulf States and tourism. Neither Israel nor Egypt can afford a disruption to maritime security from Suez and Eilat to the Gulf of Aden.The Red Sea is also the buckle on China's Belt and Road Initiative, with China's first overseas military base — strictly speaking a "facility" — in the port of Djibouti near the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow straits between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. More than 10 percent of world maritime trade is carried on 25,000 ships through these straits every year.Having long neglected its Red Sea coastline, Saudi Arabia has reawakened to its significance in the last decade. In the 1980s, amid fears that Iran might block tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia built an east-west pipeline from the Aqaig oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu al Bahr. Its strategic significance is back in focus.In parallel, the United Arab Emirates is well on track to securing a monopoly over the ports of the Gulf of Aden, which forms the eastern approaches to the Red Sea. It has de facto annexed the Yemeni island of Socotra for a naval base. The UAE is looking for a foothold in the Red Sea proper, and a string of satellite states on the African shore.All these factors intensify the scramble for securing naval bases in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Djibouti is already host to the U.S.'s Camp Lemonnier along with French, Italian, Japanese, and Chinese facilities. Turkey and Russia are actively seeking bases too, focusing on Port Sudan and Eritrea's long coastline.Empowered Gulf StatesWell before the recent crisis, the Horn of Africa was becoming dominated by Middle Eastern powers. This process is now intensified. Decades of competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for alignment of Sudan and Eritrea has swung different ways. Sudan's General Abdel Fattah al-B­­urhan, formerly political partner of Benjamin Netanyahu and signatory to the Abraham Accord, cut an ill-timed deal with Iran in early October, to obtain weapons, which has embarrassed his outreach to Egypt and Saudi Arabia. More recently, Turkey and Qatar's regional ambitions have clashed with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, especially over the Muslim Brothers — supported by the former, opposed by the latter. The latest emerging rivalry is between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the regional anchor. While running for president, Joe Biden called Saudi Arabia a "pariah." But it is now indispensable to the U.S.Among the Arab states. the UAE has been the most restrained in condemning Israel for its actions in Gaza. It has also said that it doesn't mix trade and politics— meaning that it will continue to implement the economic cooperation agreements it signed with Israel following on from the Abraham Accords. The UAE is also positioned at the center of the U.S.-sponsored India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), unveiled at the September G20 summit in India as a response to China's Belt and Road Initiative.The UAE also has a free hand in the Horn of Africa, and in the last five years it has moved more rapidly and decisively than Saudi Arabia.Sudan's Fate between Riyadh and Abu DhabiAfter the eruption of war in Sudan in April, the joint Saudi-American mediation was in large part a gift from Washington to try to mend fences with the Kingdom. Talks in Jeddah resumed in late October, with the modest agenda of a ceasefire and humanitarian access, and a pro forma "civilian track" delegated to the African Union, which has shown neither commitment nor competence.Meanwhile, the Emiratis are backing General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as "Hemedti," who is currently driving the Sudan Armed Forces out of their remaining redoubts in Khartoum. This followed more than six months of fighting in which Hemedti's Rapid Support Forces gained a reputation for military prowess and utter disregard for the dignity and rights of civilians. Despite widespread revulsion against the RSF, especially among middle class Sudanese, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, known as MBZ, stuck with his man.In charge of the ruins of Sudan's capital city, Hemedti will soon be in a position to declare a government, perhaps inviting civilians for the sake of a veneer of legitimacy. What's holding him back is the ceasefire talks in Jeddah. His rival, Gen. al-Burhan is meanwhile floating a plan to form a government based in Port Sudan — raising the prospect of two rival governments, as in Libya. The real negotiations there are between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. If the two capitals agree on a formula, the U.S. and the African Union will applaud, and the Sudanese will be presented with a fait accompli.Ethiopia Goes RogueIn Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rule is underwritten by Emirati treasure. MBZ has reportedly paid for Abiy's vast new palace, a vanity project whose $ 10 billion price tag is paid for entirely off-budget. Abiy told lawmakers that this bill was none of their business as it was funded by private donations, directly to him. Other megaprojects in and around the capital Addis Ababa, such as glitzy museums and theme parks, have similarly opaque finances.Ethiopia's wars have depended on largesse from the UAE. Ethiopian federal forces prevailed against Tigray, forcing the latter into an abject surrender a year ago, on account of an arsenal — especially drones — supplied by the UAE. Abiy is currently rattling his saber against his erstwhile ally, Eritrea, demanding that landlocked Ethiopia be given a port, or it will take one by force. The likely target is Assab in Eritrea, though other neighbors such as Djibouti and Somalia have been rattled too.Eritrea unexpectedly finds itself as a status quo power and is relishing this role, tersely expressing its refusal to join in the confusing discourse from Addis Ababa. It suddenly has allies in Djibouti, Somaliland, Somalia and even Kenya — all of them threatened by Abiy's bellicosity.If Abiy does invade Eritrea, he will violate the basic international norm — the inviolability of state boundaries — and risk plunging his already failing economy deeper into disaster. This will pose a sharp dilemma for the UAE. It is ready to override multilateral principles, but whether it would bail out its errant client in Addis Ababa, and jeopardize its winning position in Sudan, is a different matter. It would also present Saudi Arabia with the dilemma of whether to back Eritrea's notorious dictator, President Isaias Afewerki.America and the Pax AfricanaPeace and security in the Horn of Africa isn't a priority for the Biden administration. Despite a rhetorical commitment to a rule-based international order, Washington has neither protected Africa's painstakingly-constructed peace and security architecture nor brought the Ethiopian and Sudanese crises to the U.N. Security Council.While the American security umbrella was in place over the Arabian Peninsula, the countries of the Horn of Africa had the chance to develop their own peace and security system, based on a layered multilateral structure involving the regional organization, the InterGovernmental Authority on Development, the African Union, and United Nations, with peacekeepers and peace missions funded by the Europeans. This emergent Pax Africana was already imperiled as the U.S. drew down and the Middle Eastern middle powers became more assertive. President Donald Trump authorized his favored intermediaries — Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — to pursue their interests across the Horn of Africa. The Biden administration has not pulled that back.It's possible that the administration cares about peace, security and human rights in Africa. But for as long as the U.S.'s Horn of Africa policy is handled by the Africa Bureau at the State Department — whose diplomats scarcely get the time of day from their counterparts in the Gulf Kingdoms — Washington's views will remain all-but-irrelevant. The Horn of Africa doesn't make the cut when staffers prepare talking points for President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken or national security adviser Jake Sullivan to speak to their Arab counterparts. It's a prioritization that leaves the region in a deepening crisis, at the mercy of ruthless transactional politics.America's well-established practice of treating Israel as an exception to international law is rubbing off on Israel's allies and apologists across the Middle East, who are actively dismantling the already-tottering pillars of Africa's norm-based peace and security system. Those African countries most in need of principled multilateralism are paying the price.

Stvaranje Evropske unije bespovratno je narušilo tradicionalno ustrojstvo drţava, pa i samog meĊunarodnog poretka. Uspostavljanje strukture koja obuhvata više centara moći u okviru kojih se (ne)ravnopravno donose odluke od znaĉaja za ţivot graĊana, uticalo je na slabljenje nacionalnih, a nedovoljnu samostalnost nadnacionalnog nivoa unutar nje. Stalno pregovaranje i lobiranje na kojima poĉiva Unija pruţa mogućnost za ostvarivanje ciljeva pojedinih interesnih grupa i drţava. Koncept demokratije je ovakvim stanjem najviše izgubio. Pojаm demokrаtije je teško definisаti, isto koliko je komplikovаno pronаći kriterijume za njeno identifikovanje a koji su primjenljivi nа sve politiĉke sisteme. Situаcijа se dodаtno usloţnjаvа kаdа je ove kriterijume neophodno prepoznati u okviru nedovršenog politiĉkog sistema kаkаv je onаj u Evropskoj uniji. Problemi u demokrаtskoj legitimizаciji Unije, koji se jаvljаju uporedo sа uspjesimа u integrаciji, otvаrаju pitаnje primjenljivosti "stаndаrdnog" modelа demokrаtije nа ovu tvorevinu. Prirodа funkcionisаnjа Evropske unije, u kojoj je na snazi uprаvljаnje nа više nivoа, zаhtijevа prilаgoĊаvаnje demokrаtskih principа njenom specifiĉnom politiĉkom sistemu. Mada ne postoji konsenzus meĊu teoretiĉаrima koji su dali doprinos objašnjavanju pojma demokratije u Evropskoj uniji dа li postoji demokratski deficit unutar nje, kаo ni koji su nаjbolji uslovi zа rаzvoj аutentiĉne demokrаtije u EU, moguće je identifikovati brojne strukturne probleme demokratije u politiĉkom sistemu Evropske unije. U okviru postojećeg institucionаlnog mehаnizmа Evropske unije problemi nastaju usljed isprepletenih nаdleţnosti izmeĊu institucijа i osjetnog jаĉаnjа izvršne u odnosu nа zаkonodаvnu grаnu vlаsti. Centrаlnu ulogu od institucija imа Sаvjet koji funkcioniše po principu meĊuvlаdine sаrаdnje. Prаktiĉno nijednа evropskа politikа ne moţe se usvojiti bez djelovаnjа ove institucije i uplitаnjа drţаvа ĉlаnicа, što Savjet ĉini glavnim zakonodavnim tijelom Unije. Evropski parlament, sa druge strane, iako neposredno izabran, zbog svojih još uvijek ogrаniĉenih nаdleţnosti, i dаlje je glаvni uzroĉnik demokrаtskog deficitа u Uniji. Stoga bi talas demokratizacije institucija Unije trebalo da obuhvati "prelivаnje" moći sа Sаvjetа nа Evropski pаrlаment i jаĉаnje meĊuinstitucionаlne sаrаdnje izmeĊu Evropskog pаrlаmentа i Evropske komisije. Evropskа unijа nemа ureĊenje poput trаdicionаlne nаcionаlne drţаve. Ne postoji ni demos nа evropskom nivou, te, stoga, nemа ko dа obezbijedi neophodni legitimitet evropskim politikama. Iako je nesumnjivo da politike Evropske unije proizvode velike koristi zа njene grаĊаne, ovа reаlnost, zаjedno sа rаzvijenim mehаnizmimа konsultovаnjа sа grаĊаnimа, ipаk ne umаnjuje kljuĉni problem u komunikаciji Unija – graĎani: mаnjаk аdekvаtnog predstаvljаnjа grаĊаnа, što je zа zаjednicu kojа se u svojim osnivаĉkim dokumentimа deklаriše kаo predstavniĉka ipak nedostаtаk. Ni sаmi grаĊаni ne pokreću politiĉku debаtu o specifiĉnim evropskim pitаnjimа nа nivou koji bi bio izаzov zа nаcionаlne vlаde. Demokrаtskа legitimizаcijа evropskih institucijа zаhtijevа i veću ulogu politiĉkih pаrtijа i njihovu revitаlizаciju nа evropskom nivou, kao i otvoreno politiĉko takmiĉenje koje ukljuĉuje grаĊаne. Proces integrisаnjа zemаljа Evropske unije prouzrokovаo je ozbiljne demokrаtske probleme ne sаmo nа nivou Unije, već i u drţаvаmа ĉlаnicаmа. "Problemi demokratije" u drţavama ĉlanicama koji proizilaze iz funkcionisanja Unije drugаĉije se reflektuju u rаzliĉitim nаcionаlnim politiĉkim sistemimа. Pritisku koji dolаzi od integrisаnjа unutar Evropske unije bolje se prilagoĊavaju drţаve koje imаju federаlno od onih koje imаju unitаrno ureĊenje. Federаlni kаrаkter ureĊenjа u drţаvi već podrаzumijevа više nivoа odluĉivаnjа i decentrаlizаciju vlasti, pа se ovаj sistem lаkše prilаgoĊаvа uprаvljаnju nа više nivoа unutаr Evropske unije. To ne moţe biti sluĉаj sа zemljаmа koje su trаdicionаlno centrаlizovаne. Dalji razvoj Evropske unije moţe ići u pravcu zadrţavanja trenutnih principa integrisanja uz obrazloţenje da su demokratske drţave ĉlanice garant legitimiteta Unije. Na taj naĉin bi i dalje meĊuvladin princip imao primat u odnosu na nadnacionalni. Model koji bi trаnsformisаo Evropsku uniju u zаjednicu demokrаtskog kаrаkterа jeste federаlni. Evropskа unijа posjeduje elemente federalizma, a toj konstrukciji nedostaje kаpаcitet zа oporezivаnje i mogućnost predlaganja izmjena osnivаĉkih, konstitutivnih, ugovora. Trenutno postojanje federalnih elemenata u funkcionisanju Unije ukazuje da njihovo dodatno osnaţivanje neće neminovno dovesti do njene trаnsformаcije u zajednicu federalnog karaktera, ali će svakako uticati na smanjivanje postojećeg demokratskog deficita.Nauĉno-istraţivaĉki pristup korišćen u ovom radu odreĊen je predmetom i ciljevima istraţivanja. Znaĉajnu primjenu imale su metodologija svojstvena politiĉkim naukama, komparativna metoda, analiza sadrţaja dokumenata, kao i specijalizacija. U dokazivanju postavljenih hipoteza primjenu su našle i sinteza, generalizacija, indukcija i dedukcija. ; The creation of the European Union has irreversibly undermined the traditional establishment of states, including the international order thereof. The establishment of a structure encompassing multiple power centers entailing (un)equal decision making relevant to the lives of citizens, has triggered the downturn in national, subsequently weakening the supranational level of autonomy within it. Constant negotiations and lobbying representing the cornerstones of the Union, provides for an opportunity for achieving the objectives of individual groups and states. In the light of the above, the democracy concept has suffered the most. The democracy concept is difficult to define, being leveraged by the complication in finding criteria for its identification which are applicable to all political systems. The situation is further complicated in case of a need to identify these criteria within an unfinished political system like the one in the European Union. The problems behind democratic legitimization of the Union, arising along with the integration success, are opening up the question of the applicability of "standard" democracy model to this creation. The nature of the European Union functioning governed by the multiple levels management, requires adjustment of the democratic principles to its specific political system. Although there is no consensus among theorists who have contributed to clarifying the democracy concept in the European Union on neither whether there is a democratic deficit within it, nor what are the best conditions for the development of a genuine democracy in the EU, nevertheless it is possible to identify a number of structural problems of democracy in the political system of the European Union. In the framework of existing institutional mechanism of the European Union, the problems arise because of overlapping responsibilities between the institutions and the appreciable strengthening of the executive over the legislative branch of government. The Council plays the central role, operating on the principle of intergovernmental cooperation. Practically not a single European policy may be adopted without the operation of this institution and the interference of the member states, making the Council the leading legislative authority of the Union. The European Parliament, on the other hand, although directly elected, due to its still limited competences, being the main trigger of the democratic deficit in the Union. Thus, the wave of democratization of the EU institutions should include the "spillover" of power from the Council to the European Parliament and strengthening the inter-institutional cooperation between the European Parliament and European Commission. The European Union has not been grounded as the traditional national state. Demos don"t exist at the European level and, therefore, there is no one to provide the necessary legitimacy of the European policies. Although undoubtedly, the European Union policies are generating great benefits for its citizens, this reality, along with developed mechanisms of consultation with citizens, however, does not reduce the key problem in communication between the Union - citizens: lack of adequate representation of citizens, representing a deficiency having in mind that its founding documents are declaring it as a representative Community. Even the citizens themselves are failing to launch political debate on specific issues at the European level that would be a challenge for the national governments. Democratic legitimization of European institutions requires a greater role of political parties and their revitalization at the European level, as well as open political competition involving the citizens The integration process of the European Union counties has caused serious democratic problems not only at the level of the Union, but also in the member states. "Democracy problems" in the member states deriving from the functioning of the Union are reflected differently in different national political systems. Unlike unitary governments, federal ones are better adapting to the pressure deriving form the integration within the European Union. Federal feature of organization in the state already implies the multiple levels of decision making and decentralization of powers, thus the system is easily adapting to the multiple levels of management within the European Union. This is not the case with countries that are traditionally centralized. The further EU development may be directed in retaining the current integration principles with the rationale that the democratic member states represent legitimacy guarantor of the Union. In the light of the above, the intergovernmental principle should supersede the supranational. However, a model that would transform the EU into a democratic community is federal. The European Union has elements of federalism and this structure lacks the capacity for taxation and possibility of proposing amendments to founding, constitutional contracts. Currently the existence of federal elements in the functioning of the Union is pinpointing that its further strengthening will not inevitably lead to the transformation of the Union into the community with federal character, but will most likely impact on reducing the existing democratic deficit However, the model that would transform the European Union into the Community with democratic feature is the federal one. The European Union has the federalism features, and this structure suffers the lack of taxation capacity and the option of proposing amendments to the founding and constitutional treaties. The current existence of federal elements within the functioning of the Union is implying that its additional strengthening will not inevitably generate the transformation of the Union into the Community of federal feature, yet it will affect the decline in the current democratic deficit. Scientific methods used in this thesis are based on specific topic and research objective. Therefore, the methodology inherent in political science, comparative method, content analysis of documents, as well as specialization are used to a large extent. In proving the hypotheses a great usage has found the synthesis, generalization, induction and deduction.

1 Single abstract for the CUC (Creative University Conference), August 2016 UNIVERSITIES AS ORGANIZATIONS FOR MARKETIZATION AND SELF-BRANDING. Bente Elkjaer and Niels Christian Mossfeldt Nickelsen Contact author: elkjaer@edu.au.dk"Right. As long as you have access to a telephone, a Xerox machine, and a conference grant fund, you're OK, you're plugged into the university that really matters – the global campus" (Lodge, 1985: 44)Knowledge production through innovation and learning appear crucial in contemporary knowledge based economies (Edmondson, 2012), and universities are ascribed a central role in this endeavor (Bleiklie & Byrkjeflot, 2002). One of the ways this has shown is through politically implemented new ways in which to manage universities in order to make them fulfil their contribution to societies (Carney, 2006; Deem, 2001; Halvorsen & Nyhagen, 2011; Wright & Ørberg, 2008). The Danish University system has not been exempted from this worldwide development, and in 2003 the university system in Denmark was changed from one in which managers at all levels were elected amongst peers to a system where a Board with a majority of external members (i.e. people who are not employed at the university) is the highest authority of the university. The result is that we as university scholars within the last 10-15 years have witnessed an increased emphasis on 'professional management' occupied with formulations of distinct strategic goals in combination with a more closely monitoring of quantitative measurements of research outputs (Wright, 2011) and the demands of adaptation to international and standardized ranking systems (Czarniawska, 2015) through for example lists of which publication outlets count and not count as well as a steady stream of invitations to answer surveys on our knowledge of the reputation of universities.The purpose with the paper is to discuss how this increased emphasis upon the professionalization of management and a strategic marketization of universities (Czarniawska & Genell, 2002; Kallio, Kallio, Tienari, & Hyvönen, 2016) will influence universities' abilities to2maintain their pivotal position with regard to production of new knowledge and learning. The question is whether the 'plurality of thoughts' (Kallio et al., 2016: 702) and the 'intellectual model' of the university (O'Byrne & Bond, 2014: 572) will be squeezed in professional management, measurement and ranking with innovative learning and knowing as the losers.Some dilemmas appear to be interesting in this debate both with regard to what drives scholarship, learning and knowledge production, and to the contemporary organization of scholars. With regard to the latter, we believe that it is important to recall that university scholars are not only embedded in their home-university but also participants in worldwide social worlds of scholars within their fields of inquiry and a competitive market for university scholars. This may for example be exemplified through not only citation indexes but also through the many competitions in which scholars are invited to vote for other scholars' work in order to be nominated as the 'author of the year' or similar prizes. With regard to what drives scholarship, learning and knowledge production, we understand this as both driven by exploration and experimentation (Dewey, 1913 [1979], 1922 [1988]) as well as struggles for visibility, attention and recognition (Merton, 1968, 1988) and even aspirations for celebrity (Van Krieken, 2012).The theoretical framework that informs the paper is both a pragmatist inspired understanding of organizations as "people doing things together" (Becker, 1986; Hughes, 2015), learning and knowing as driven by tensions (Brandi & Elkjaer, 2013; Elkjaer, 2005; Elkjaer & Huysman, 2008) and passions (Dey & Steyaert, 2007; Gherardi, Nicolini, & Strati, 2007). This will allow us to both look at the organizing processes amongst scholars but also how the university as an organization of knowledge production organize around this pursuit, for example with regard to support mechanisms for scholarly research. Theories on how the branding of selves unfold in academia (see for example Wirtén, 2015), and how this may be supported by the web-based platforms (Marwick, 2013; Senft, 2013) also inform the research in order to help interpret how scholars' own participation in marketization through branding of selves may be understood.The methodology is based upon a reading of books, reports, papers and articles on the changes of management at universities and the dilemma of university scholars to adapt to these changes. For example, it may be observed how the demands for Open Access to knowledge and new network sites for academics (for example ResearchGate and Academia.edu) (Thelwall & Kousha, 2014, 2015) may act as a way in which academic scholars gain not only voice and visibility amongst3peers but also easy access to a worldwide market of knowledge. The new media platforms allow for work to be cited, uploaded, spread and measured by other members of the field of inquiry in order for university scholars to not only brand themselves in a competitive market for knowledge. This latter may also be captured in a competitive or a collaborative ethos of scholarship, or maybe best as a balance between the two (Kallio et al., 2016).The results are to re-consider what sort of organizing may benefit universities when innovative and competitive learning and knowing is the aim bearing in mind that university scholars not only serve organizational but also their own interests, which are situated in both markets and their fields of inquiry and their social worlds of peers. So, basically it is a paper highlighting the relationship between the employing organization (in case universities) and the employed person (in case university scholars) with a focus upon universities as organizations for learning and knowledge production.The limitations may be that the paper is a discursive voice into a field of many voices and as such does not represent a cumulative 'truth' – but a voice.The implications are to consider looking at the organizing processes of university scholars and knowledge production, for example to map how the support system for research in universities works to enhance scholarly learning and knowing, and how scholars participate in the marketization of selves and knowledge production.The originality lies in the reconsiderations of how management and marketization also taps into scholars as part hereof, not only out of compliance (Alvesson & Spicer, 2016), but also as active participants and with own aspirations for celebrity.4ReferencesAlvesson, M., & Spicer, A. 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It is widely recognized that broadband is of fundamental importance to the social and economic development of a nation. The focus of the paper is on infrastructure-related actions; measures to stimulate demand for broadband are, therefore, only marginally addressed. This paper aims to provide a platform for debate with the Russian counterparts in the sector, and to discuss the measures needed to develop broadband in support of actions aimed at economic growth. This paper examines the broadband market in Russia and preconditions for its sustainable development. It begins by presenting arguments demonstrating the importance of broadband to the overall economic development of Russia, including from the perspective of diversification of the economy and new job creation. The paper benchmarks Russia s broadband performance with Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) comparators, as well as with other nations leading the way in broadband diffusion. The paper takes stock of the existing broadband market structure in Russia and its main players as they stand today, including the regulatory and legal environment of the market for both fixed and mobile broadband. Finally, the paper provides a set of recommendations that addresses the issue of sustainability in Russian broadband delivery, and how it can continue its acceleration in the years to come.

Over the review period covered by this report (2003-2012), the budget allocated to agriculture increased noticeably more than the sector's contribution to GDP. This reflects a notable effort by the Chad authorities to increase the budget to boost this sector's development in recent years. In this proactive context, Chad signed its CAADP compact in December 2013 to continue supporting agriculture's revival. The CAADP is being implemented in Chad even as the terms of the National Rural Sector Investment Program (PNISR, 2014-2020) are being finalized. Within the context of the CAADP, the Government of Chad (GOC) wished to undertake a review of public agriculture expenditures to learn from past budgetary implementation in this sector with a view to improving future program performance. Following a request by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI), the NEPAD planning and coordination agency gave Chad it's backing for this review. This process was undertaken by the Program for Strengthening National Comprehensive Agricultural Public Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa, co-financed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the CAADP Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This program, implemented by the World Bank, aims to improve the impact of the still-limited public resources available to governments in Sub-Saharan Africa to foster agricultural development and reduce poverty in rural areas, where most of the poor in these countries, notably Chad, live. This study follows and builds upon a number of similar studies conducted in recent years on public expenditure management, in particular in Chad the Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances (PAMFIP). However, these studies have focused on budget management as a whole, and none to date has looked at the agricultural sector specifically.

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.

This report provides an overview of the World Bank Group's engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the new operating model of the World Bank Group. In particular, the report provides insight on the key challenges and strategic engagement of each sector (Global Practice) in MENA and details some of the key cross-cutting challenges that countries face. This report serves as a basis to convene international thought leaders, as well as internal and external stakeholders, in the context of developing a new strategy for the Middle East and North Africa region later this year. The region faces three challenges in particular: (a) long-standing distortions that have generated jobless growth and poor service delivery as well as low financial access and inclusion; (b) severe imbalances that threaten macroeconomic stability; and (c) deep political and social tensions, at times escalating into violent conflict. The World Bank Group's current engagement supports four key pillars: (a) strengthening governance; (b) ensuring economic and social inclusion; (c) creating jobs; and (d) accelerating sustainable growth. Progress on these pillars can be made through a two-pronged approach focused on addressing the immediate needs arising from humanitarian crises throughout the region while also giving sustained attention to the investments and reforms needed for medium- and long-term development. This two-pronged approach is necessary to help governments cope with immediate pressures on already fragile institutions and at the same time develop long-term strategies to address deep-seated issues that have hindered inclusive growth and prosperity for decades. This report details nine specific cross-cutting challenges: climate change; decentralization; disaster risk management; fragility, conflict and violence; fuel subsidies and social safety nets; gender; governance and service delivery in health and education; private sector development and job creation; and public-private partnerships. Looking ahead, responding to the changing realities on the ground, the World Bank Group is rethinking its regional strategy in order to maximize its impact in the Middle East and North Africa. This new strategy, which is currently under preparation, will aim to step up the Bank Group's engagement in the region in order to achieve shared growth and prosperity, as well as work with partners to convene change in the region.

Tutkimuskohteena Emmanuel Macron on mielenkiintoinen ja jopa historiallinen hahmo. Macron oli valituksi tullessaan Ranskan nuorin johtaja Napoleon Bonaparten jälkeen. Macron oli niin ikään kokematon ja lähes tuntematon poliitikko, joka oli asettunut ensimmäistä kertaa ehdolle ylipäätänsä missään vaaleissa ja joka valittiin ensimmäisenä kansanliikkeen ehdokkaana Ranskan viidennen tasavallan kahdeksanneksi presidentiksi. Macronin vaalivoittojen jälkeen Ranskan vanhat mahtipuolueet tasavaltalaiset ja sosialistit olivat menettäneet täydellisesti asemansa maan tosiasiallisina hallitsijoina. Lyhyesti sanottuna: Macron toteutti täydellisen demokraattisen vallankaappauksen, jollaista kukaan ei ollut kyennyt ennakoimaan vielä vuotta aikaisemmin. Tässä lyhyesti faktat, jotka innoittivat minua tekemään väitöstutkimuksen Macronista liittyen nimenomaan hänen politiikkaansa ja poliittiseen ajatteluunsa. Varsinaisesta vaalitutkimuksesta ei siis ole kysymys, koska minua kiinnosti päästä kiinni eniten Macronin politiikan ja arvomaailman ydinkysymyksiin. Väitöskirjani nimen otsikko Ideologioiden tuolla puolen? perustui useisiin ristiriitaisiin näkemyksiin, jotka olivat ympäröivät presidenttiä koko hänen verraten lyhyen poliittisen uransa ajan. Äärivasemmisto ja äärioikeisto näkivät Macronin ehdokkaana ja poliitikkona, joka edusti uusliberalismia ja hallitsematonta globalisaatiota, jossa suuryritysten ja EU:n edut olivat etusijalla Ranskan kansallisten etujen sijaan. Macronia on myös kuvailtu populismiin taipuvaiseksi ideologialtaan ohueksi poliitikoksi, jonka kritiikki vanhojen poliittisten puolueiden ja poliitikkojen edustamaa elitismiä kohtaan ei ollut uskottavaa. Maltillinen oikeisto puolestaan kommentoi Macronia vuoden 2017 vaalien aikana presidentti Francois Hollanden epäonnistuneen hallinnon jatkeena ja edustajana. Keltaliiviliikkeen mielenosoituksissa Macronia syytettiin myös rikkaiden presidentiksi, joka oli unohtanut tavallisten ranskalaisten arkipäivän ongelmat tarjoten avokätisiä verohelpotuksia jo ennestään varakkaille kansalaisille ja yrityksille. Koska ristiriitoja oli huomattavan paljon jo pelkästään Macronin vastustajien suunnalta, oli aiheellista pohtia voiko Emmanuel Macronia arvioida perinteisellä oikeisto–vasemmisto ulottuvuudella vai pitäisikö häntä sen sijaan lähestyä kokonaan uudella tavalla? Tämä on toinen syy, miksi nimesin tutkimukseni ensimmäisiksi sanoiksi jo mainitun Ideologioiden tuolla puolen. Edellä mainittujen väitteiden ja näkemysten perusteella lähtökohtani oli pohtia Macronin politiikkaa ja ajattelua perinteisen ja dogmaattisen tavan sijaan tavalla, joka edustaisi myös Macronin henkilökohtaisia näkemyksiä ja lausuntoja ideologioiden ja politiikan suhteesta. Tässä kohtaa löysin Macronin ajattelussa yhtymäkohdan politiikan teoreetikon Michael Freedenin ajatteluun ideologioista, liberalismista ja niiden merkityksestä nykyisessä maailmassa ja politiikassa. Edellä mainittuihin seikkoihin perustuen, oli luonnollista, että lähestyisin Macronin politiikkaa pääosin retorisen analyysin avulla. Retorinen analyysi oli luonnollinen valinta myös sen vuoksi, koska suurin osa tutkimusaineistosta oli Macronin kampanjan aikana ja valituksi tulemisen jälkeen pitämiä puheita ja muita julkisia kannanottoja. Toinen tärkeä syy menetelmäni takana oli luonnollisesti itse ranskalainen poliittinen kulttuuri ja historia. Ranskassa politiikassa on aina korostunut poliitikon ja varsinkin presidentin kyky esiintyä ja käyttää erilaisia retorisia keinoja vakuuttaessaan kansalaiset vaalien aikana, mutta myös vaalien jälkeen. Edellä mainitut taidot ovat olleet myös poliittisen menestyksen ja uskottavuuden perusedellytys. Tutkimuksen kaksi tärkeintä teoriaa ovat saksalaisen politiikantutkijan ja sosiologin Ulrich Beckin luoma riskiyhteiskunta, jota seuraa Anthony Giddensin luoma kolmannen tien poliittinen teoria. Beckin globaali näkemys oli, että vanhat perinteiset instituutiot (kirkko, poliittiset puolueet, perhe, ammatit) ja niiden asema ovat rapautuneet, mikä on lisännyt epävarmuutta esimerkiksi työmarkkinoille ja kansalaisten henkilökohtaiseen elämään liittyen. Beckin teorian mukaan vakituisten työpaikkojen määrä vähentyy edelleen ja erilaiset määräaikaiset ja epätyypilliset työsuhteet yleistyvät tulevaisuudessa entistä enemmän ja vastuu menestymisestä tai menestymättömyydestä on aina selätetty kuitenkin aina yksilölle itselleen. Toinen tärkeä ilmiö liittyy globalisaation ja riskiyhteiskunnan väliseen suhteeseen, jossa päätökset mm. paikallisten työpaikkojen säilymisestä voidaan tehdä tuhansien kilometrien päässä itse tarkasteltavasta maasta. Riski-yhteiskunnan myötä globaaliksi ilmiöksi on tullut myös edelleen kasvanut riski ajautua työttömyyteen, ja tämä koskee myös useita akateemisia ammatteja. Kolmannen tien politiikan teoria oli luonnollinen valinta tutkimukselleni, koska Macronin poliittinen ajattelu perustui kolmeen kolmannen tien keskeiseen pilariin, joissa työ, yrittäjyys ja henkilökohtainen vastuu olivat politiikan lähtökohtia yhdessä markkina myönteisen ajattelun kanssa. Macron siis haastoi myös perinteisen ranskalaisen etatistisen eli valtiovetoisen talousajattelun, jossa pro-business-ajattelu hallitsi taloutta ja talousympäristöä ja jossa usein valtio-omisteiset yritykset olivat nauttineet usein valtion avokätisestä tuesta ja asemasta suhteessa pienempiin toimijoihin. Macronin mukaan säännöt tulisi olla kaikille samat ja tämä koski myös digitaalisia jättiläisiä (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple), joiden verovälttelyyn presidentti Macron on halunnut puuttua kovalla kädellä. Edellä mainittujen yksityiskohtien perusteella Macronin politiikka lähestyi Britannian entisen pääministerin Tony Blairin (1997–2007) politiikkaa, jossa kolmannen tien politiikan teoria muodosti keskeisen New Labourin ja Blairin poliittisen ja ideologisen sisällön. Macron halusi myös puuttua ranskalaisen yhteiskunnan ruohonjuuritason epäkohtiin, jotka ovat aiheuttaneet paljon negatiivisia seurauksia viimeisen kolmen vuosikymmenen aikana. Viimeksi mainittuun kuuluu pitkäaikaistyöttömyys, köyhyys ja yhteiskunnallinen syrjäytyminen. Tarkemmin sanottuna ruohonjuuritason ongelmiin puuttuminen tarkoitti sitä, että Ranskan hallitus ja Macronin hallinto olivat valmiita tekemään suuria investointeja peruskoulutukseen ja alueille, jotka olivat kärsineet eniten mm. heikosta opetuksesta ja tuetun opetuksen vähyydestä. Tasavallan presidentti kyseenalaisti myös Ranskan korkeakoulujen nykytilan ja tulokset. Macron oli huolissaan opintojensa keskeyttäneistä opiskelijoista ja hän näki myös, että Ranskassa oli vanhoja elitistisiä instituutioita, kuten ENA (National School of Administration), jotka eivät palvelleet maan etua tulevaisuudessa. Macronin ajattelussa oli myös useita yhtymäkohtia Ranskan myöhäiseen valistukseen ja erityisesti filosofien ja poliitikkojen Francois Guizot'n ja Benjamin Constantin ajatuksiin, joihin Macronin ajattelua peilasin. Macronin, Guizot'n ja Constantin ajatukset koskivat erityisesti työn, koulutuksen ja ammatin roolia yhteiskunnallisen edistyksen takaajana. Myös poliitikkojen rooli eräänlaisena roolimallina kansalaisten edessä yhdisti niin Macronia, kuin Constantia ja Guizot'a toisiinsa. Macron nosti esiin kampanjansa aikana useasti Ranskan poliittisen järjestelmän ongelmat, jossa poliitikot käyttivät hyväkseen järjestelmän porsaanreikiä ajaessaan omia ja intressipiiriensä etuja. Viime vuosituhannen ajattelijoista nostan esiin Ranskan liberaalien kärkinimen Raymond Aronin ja Macronin mentorin Paul Ricœurin. Aronia, Ricœuria ja Macronia yhdisti kiinnostavalla tavalla kriittisyys ideologiota kohtaan ja totuuden ensisijaisuus politiikan keskeisenä hyveenä. ; As an object of research Emmanuel Macron makes an interesting, and even a historic figure. The youngest leader of France since Napoleon Bonaparte, he was an inexperienced and almost unknown politician, when elected as the President of the Republic from neither of the two traditional parties. Emmanuel Macron was a political actor and a candidate of a new unknown political movement, which he founded alone only about a year before the Presidential elections. The name of my dissertation Beyond Ideologies? Risk Society in Emmanuel Macron's Reformist Politics is based on the several contradictory views that have surrounded Macron since the very beginning of Macron's career. The far left and the far right saw Macron as a candidate and politician who represented neoliberalism, and uncontrolled globalisation, in which the interests of big business and interests of the EU had priority instead of the French national interests. Macron has also been described as a politician with a thin ideology prone to populism, whose critique of the elitism represented by the old political parties and politicians was not credible. The moderate right, in turn, commented on Macron during the 2017 election as an extension and representative of President François Hollande's administration. During protests of the Yellow Vest movement, Macron was also accused of being the President of the rich, who had forgotten the everyday problems of ordinary French people and offered generous tax reliefs to the already wealthy citizens and companies. These were the main reasons behind my motivation to study Macron. Given all this controversy it was relevant to ask: is it even possible to evaluate Macron in terms of classical French ideologies or should his politics be approached in a whole new way? That is the second reason why I have named my research first: Beyond Ideologies. Starting point was to reflect on Macron's politics and thinking without resorting to the traditional and dogmatic approaches, in a way which would also represent his personal views and his statements about the relationship between ideologies and politics. Related to the previous it was relevant that I would approach Macron's politics using mainly rhetorical analysis as most of the research material consisted of the speeches and other public declarations Macron made during his campaign, and after he entered into the office in May 2017. The second important reason behind my method was of course the French political culture itself that has always emphasised the politician's ability to use various rhetorical skills and speak well in public debate. The skills have formed a precondition to one's political success and credibility. Two of the most important theories of the research are the risk society created by the German scholar Ulrich Beck and the third way political theory created by Anthony Giddens. Beck's global view was that the fragmentation and lower status of the old institutions (church political parties, family professions) have increased insecurity in the job market and in citizens' lives as the share of permanent jobs has decreased. At the same time the risk of unemployment has increased, and this concerns even academic professions. Third way theory was a natural choice as Macron was for example keen on using public money and investments on basic education and various internships programmes. Education policies were directed especially at suburban areas where the societal challenges were the most difficult. Macron's politics resembled the former Prime Minister of UK Tony Blair's politics where the third way politics was a leading political doctrine. Macron was also keen to intervene into various grass root grievances of French society which have caused a lot of negative consequences during the last three decades such as long term unemployment, poverty and social exclusion. In addition to the French government and Macron's administration making huge investments in basic education. The President of the Republic also questioned the current status and the current results of French higher education. Macron was concerned of the dropout figures and saw also that there existed old elitist institutions, such as ENA (National School of Administration) that did not serve country's interest. As my research continued it became clear quite soon that Macron's values and the goals he presented for France differed from his predecessors, and there were elements France had not actually faced during the political history of the Fifth Republic. Macron's political thinking was based on three pillars where work, entrepreneurship, and personal responsibility were the starting points together with pro-market thinking. Macron challenged also the traditional French statism thinking where the role of state dominated economic activity. One of the negative features was distorted competition with state-owned companies that had governmental support behind them. Specifically, this meant that these companies were able to receive cheap loans and other financial support guaranteed by the government. Macron wanted to create the same rules policy for all in domestic markets and this applied also to the European level. According to Macron GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple) companies' tax evasion should be finished. Finally, I included several confluences from the late French Enlightenment where ideas of the philosophers François Guizot and Benjamin Constant ideas influence Macron's thinking. These ideas concerned especially the role of work, education and politicians role models in front of the citizens. A precondition to the fair and civilised society was openness and accountability. One of the typical problems in France has been how the politicians and political parties have used various loopholes in the political system as they have financed their campaigns.

DEL I af denne afhandling omfatter 6 kapitler. Kapitel 1 beskriver de vigtigste problemstillinger omkring brug af energiressourcer. De omhandler miljømæssige, økonomiske, demografiske og socialpolitiske emner som kædes sammen og skaber baggrunden for afhandlingen. Kapitel 2 beskriver state-of-the-art fjernvarmesystemer med fokus på den aktuelle og fremtidige situation i Danmark. Afhandlingen er centreret omkring udviklingen af et nyt fjernvarmeparadigme, "lavtemperatur-fjernvarme", med særligt fokus på dets potentiale og på undersøgelser af de tekniske muligheder for at optimere denne energiløsning med henblik på energieffektivitet og socialøkonomi. Kapitel 3 beskriver hele konceptet bag lavtemperatur-fjernvarme. Kapitel 4 præsenterer afhandlingens hypoteser og sætter fokusområdet i perspektiv i forhold til andre relevante aspekter af emnet. Metoder og begrænsninger er ligeledes beskrevet. Kapitel 5 forklarer det videnskabelige indhold af artiklerne i DEL II af afhandlingen. I artikel I introduceres de tekniske og organisatoriske strategier, som danner baggrund for etableringen af succesrig energiplanlægning i et samfund. I artiklen analyseres desuden state-of-the-art indenfor energiplanlægning, kritiske problemstillinger diskuteres og fjernvarmens rolle i udviklingen af bæredygtig energitilførsel påpeges. Artikel II og III søger at give en videnskabelige baggrund for udvikling af forbedrede løsninger for fjernvarmenetværk; der fokuseres på simulerede modeller af fjernvarmerør for at kunne vurdere energiydelsen fra brug af innovative rørgeometrier, materialer og systemkonfigurationer. Modellerne blev valideret mod eksperimentelle målinger på rigtige fjernvarmerør. Artikel II omhandler detaljeret steady-state modellering og analyse af varmetab fra præisolerede fjernvarmerør. Artikel III fokuserer på modellering og udregning af transient varmeoverførsel i tilførende fjernvarmerør, som er vigtige elementer i lavtemperaturfjernvarmenetværk, især ved forsyning af bebyggede områder med lav varmetæthed. Artikel IV er baseret på simulationer og analyser af netværk med lavenergifjernvarme som forsyner energi-effektive bebyggede områder i lande – såsom Danmark – med en eksisterende veludbygget fjernvarmeinfrastruktur. Den tekniske og økonomiske gennemførlighed af disse løsninger bliver vurderet og strategier for optimering af design og funktion bliver foreslået. Artikel V diskuterer potentiale for, og barriererimod, implementering af fjernvarme i Canada, hvor markedsandelen for fjernvarme er lille. Tekniske og økonomiske gennemførlighedsanalyser blev foretaget på fjernvarmenetværk, der forsyner et tæt bebygget område i Ottawa, med særligt fokus på udvikling af potentialet for at udnytte varme udvundet fra vedvarende energiressourcer. Kapitel 6 indeholder afhandlingens konklusioner: Analyserne antyder, at man ved kommunal energiplanlægning bør overveje mulighederne for implementering af fjernvarme, da det udgør en vigtig infrastruktur for fremtidige bæredygtige energiløsninger. Energipolitik bør have til formål at organisere og skabe synergien mellem energibesparende tiltag og varmeforsyning fra vedvarende energiressourcer og herved minimere konkurrence mellem de to sektorer. Det anbefales at Finite Element Method (FEM) modeller og simulationer bruges ved design af nye rørgeometrier og systemer. Driftsikkerheden af FEM modeller af fjernvarmerør blev valideret ved hjælp af eksperimentelle data og sammenligning med udregninger og formler fra litteraturen. Udregningerne tager hensyn til temperaturafhængigheden af isoleringsmaterialets varmeledningsevne. Det er blevet vist, at asymmetrisk isolering af dobbeltrør i lavtemperatursystemer fører til 4-8% mindre varmetab fra tilførende varmerør end med symmetrisk isolering. Samtidig kan varmetab fra fraførende varmerør holdes tæt på nul. Ved brug af optimerede dobbeltrørsystemer (et par rør af forskellig størrelse indpakket i samme isolering og yderrør) er det muligt at reducere varmetabet med 6-12% sammenlignet med almindelige dobbeltrør, uden at øge investeringsomkostningerne. Endelig beskrives en løsning med et optimeret tredobbelt rørsystem. Modelleringen af transient varmeoverførsel i fjernvarmeservicerør har vist sig at være nøjagtig, da den giver resultater som stemmer overens med tilbageløbstemperaturprofilen målt eksperimentelt med en afvigelse på mindre end 0.5°C. Der er desuden god overensstemmelse med detaljerede finite-volume simulationer for både trinvise og sinusformede grænsebetingelser mht. fremløbs-temperaturprofilen. Den foreslåede integrerede løsning som omfatter servicerør og varmevekslerenhed med en boosterpumpe opfylder kravene om fjernvarmeforsyning indenfor 10 sekunder og opnår varmebesparelser på 200 kWhth/år med ekstra elektricitetsforbrug på 58 kWhel/år. I Danmark kan optimerede lavtemperatur-fjernvarme netværk være omkostningseffektive i områder med lineær varmetæthed så lav som 0.20 MWh/(m.år). For de scenarier som er analyseret her, er de tilsvarende omkostninger for energiforbruget i intervallet 13.9–19.3 c€/kWh (ekskl. moms), hvilket er ca. 20% lavere end scenariet baseret på jordvarme. Netværksløsninger baseret på drift med lav temperatur er bedre end systemer baseret på drift med lavt flow. Det totale primære energiforbrug i det mest energi-effektive design er 14.3% lavere end forbruget i standardnetværk og varmetabet er halveret. Disse resultater antyder, at lavtemperaturfjernvarme konceptet passer ind i visionen for en fremtidig bæredygtig varmesektor. I undersøgelserne foretaget i Canada fandt man, at fjernvarmeforsyning af bebyggede områder med lineær varmetæthed højere end 3.0 MWh/(m.år) er konkurrencedygtig i forhold til den alternative naturgasforsyning, og det giver mulighed for implementering af brugen af vedvarende energi ressourcer og ringe varmeressourcer. I områder med lineær varmetæthed under 1.5 MWh/(m.år) er det dog ikke økonomisk rentabelt i den aktuelle situation på energimarkedet i Canada, men kunne overvejes ved fremtidige netværksudvidelser sammen med implementering af optimerede design- og planlægningskoncepter. Desuden kan middeltemperatur-fjernvarme netværk tilpasses de aktuelle varmebehov, imens fremadrettede muligheder for lavtemperatur-fjernvarme overvejes. ; PART I of this doctoral thesis consists of 6 chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the main issues caused by the use of energy resources. They involve ecological, economic, demographical and socio-political topics that are linked together and define the background of the thesis. Chapter 2 describes the state-of-the-art of District Heating (DH) systems, with focus on the present and future situation in Denmark. The core of the thesis consists of the development of a new DH paradigm, the "Low- Temperature District Heating (LTDH)", the study of its potential, and investigations of technical options which improve its applicability in terms of energy performance and socio-economy. Chapter 3 describes the whole idea about LTDH. Chapter 4 presents the hypotheses of the studies, draws the boundaries between the focus area of the thesis and other relevant aspects of the subject, describes the limitations of the work and lists the methods which were used. Chapter 5 explains the results of the scientific content reported in the articles in PART II. Article I introduces the technical and organizational strategies that can facilitate the establishment of a successful energy planning in a community. It analyses the stateof- the art in community energy planning, discusses critical issues, and points at the role of DH in moving towards sustainable heat supply. The articles II and III aim at providing science-based knowledge for the development of improved solutions for the DH networks; they focus on the performance simulation of DH pipelines through models for assessing the energy performance of innovative pipe geometries, materials or system configurations. The models were validated against experimental measurements on real DH pipes. Article II considers the detailed steady-state modelling and analysis of heat losses in pre-insulated DH pipes. Article III focuses on the modelling and computation of the transient heat transfer in service pipes, which are important elements of LTDH networks, particularly when supplying low heat density building areas. The purpose of article IV was to perform simulations and analyses about low-energy DH networks supplying heat to energy-efficient building areas in countries – such as Denmark – with an extensive existing DH infrastructure, quantify their technical and economic feasibility, and suggest strategies for optimizing their design and operation. Article V deals with the potential and barriers of implementing DH in Canada, where the DH market share is low. Technical-economic feasibility studies for DH networks supplying an urban area in the city of Ottawa were carried out, with particular attention to developing the potential for supplying heat derived from Renewable Energy (RE). Chapter 6 summarises the conclusions. First of all, analysis of the case studies suggests that local authority energy plans should take the opportunities for DH implementation into account, because DH is an essential infrastructure for future, sustainable energy systems. Energy policy should aim at organizing and facilitating the synergy between energy conservation measures and the supply of heat based on RE energy and overcome the traditional competition between the two sectors. It is recommended that Finite Element Method (FEM) models and simulation should be used when designing new pipe geometries and systems. The reliability of the FEM models of DH pipes was validated by means of experimental data and comparison with analytical formulas and data from literature. The calculation method takes into account the temperature-dependency of the thermal conductivity of the insulation foam. It was demonstrated that the asymmetrical insulation of twin pipes in lowtemperature operations leads to 4% to 8% lower heat loss from the supply media pipe than a symmetrical configuration, and at the same time the heat loss from the return media pipe can be kept close to zero. With the use of optimized double-pipe systems (a pair of differently-sized media pipes, embedded in the same insulation and casing pipe), it is possible to cut heat losses by 6% to 12% in comparison to twin pipes without increasing investment costs. Finally, the development of an optimized triple pipe solution is described. The code modelling the transient heat transfer in DH service pipes is proven to be accurate, since it gives results that well represent the outlet temperature profile measured in the experiments with deviations of less than 0.5°C, and it is in good accordance with detailed, finite-volume simulations, for both stepwise and sinusoidal boundary conditions with regard to the inlet temperature profile. The proposed integrated solution consisting of service pipe and heat exchanger unit with a booster pump satisfies the requirement for DHW supply within l0 seconds and achieves heat savings for 200 kWhth/yr with an additional electricity use of approximately 58 kWhel/yr. In Denmark, optimally-designed LTDH networks can be cost-effective in areas with a linear heat density as low as 0.20 MWh/(m.yr). For the cases considered, the levelized cost of energy is between 13.9–19.3 c€/kWh (excl. VAT) and this is approximately 20% lower than the scenario based on ground-source heat pumps. The network designs based on low-temperature operation are superior to the design based on lowflow operation. The total primary energy use in the most energy-efficient design is 14.3% lower than in standard networks and the distribution heat losses are halved. The results indicate that the LTDH concept fits the vision of the future energysustainable heating sector in Denmark. In the investigations of the case studies in Canada, it was found that DH supply to building areas with linear heat density greater than 3.0 MWh/(m.yr) is competitive with the natural gas supply alternative and offers the opportunity to implement the use of RE and low-grade heat sources. The areas with linear heat density below 1.5 MWh/(m.yr) are not economically feasible with the current situation of the energy market in Canada, but could be considered for future network extensions together with the implementation of improved design and planning concepts. Moreover, medium-temperature DH networks can be designed for current heating loads while envisaging low-temperature operation in the future.

The debate about Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) to stakeholders is a fairly lengthy debate in the repertoire of the development of company law. At least there are two fundamentally different views to interpret the corporate social responsibility.The views, Firstly, cling to the belief that the concept of corporate social responsibility is counterproductive in the business world. According to Milton Friedman, a corporation are naturally only have a goal to generate economic objectives for shareholders. A prominent liberal economics is very pessimistic and tend to oppose any attempt to make the company as a social purpose. Furthermore, in Capitalism and Freedom (1962) Milton Friedman clearly states that in a free society there is one and only one social responsibility of businesses that utilize the company's resources and engage in activities that aim to maximize profits. If this goal is achieved by the company, it actually functions, and corporate social goals have been achieved, namely to improve the welfare of society.The doctrine of the social responsibility in business, damage the free market economic system.Acknowledging social responsibility that will lead to an economic system leads to the direction of the economic plans of the Communist Countries. In the writings, published in the New York Times Magazine on September 13th, 1970, with the title: "The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits". This reasoning is supported by Joel Bakan, which teaches that if the company gives some of its profits to the community, the company has violated his nature. Business sustainability can take place in the long term if the company is able to provide an answer to the needs of stakeholders and give them what they need.Second views, with the increasing importance of the role and position of all stakeholders in the Good Governance management of the company, and surely, the second thought, extremely gave rise to the contradicts of the first view. The second view was expressly acknowledged the existence of corporate social responsibility towards stakeholders. R. Edward Freeman in, "A Stakeholder Theory of the Modern Corporation", offers an alternative to the theory of Friedman. On the view Freeman, Friedman wrong to assume that the main task is the company's executive moral fiduciary issue to their shareholders and that in fulfilling this obligation they act socially responsible. Freeman takes issue with dissention of opinion and the opinion: 1 "That the company's managers have a duty to all groups and individuals who own shares (a stake) in or claim on the company (Freeman refer to groups and individuals as 'stakeholders'); 2 That there was no stakeholder groups should be given primacy over the other when the company mediate the competition claims of stakeholders; and 3 That company law should be changed to require executives to manage their enterprise in accordance with the principles of the theory of stakeholders, namely, Freeman stated that the executive should be notified (legal / official) to manage their company in the interests of their stakeholders ". Regardless of whether the stakeholder management leads to improved financial performance, managers must manage the business for the benefit of all of stakeholders. It looked at the company rather than as a mechanism to improve the financial returns of stockholders,but as a vehicle for coordinating of stakeholders interests and view management as having a fiduciary relationship not only for shareholders, but for all of stakeholders. According to the normative of stakeholders theory, management must give equal consideration to the interests of all stakeholders, while a conflict of interest, to manage the business so as to achieve the optimum balance between them. This, of course, implies that there will be a time while management is obliged to at least partially sacrificing the interests of the stockholders to those of other stakeholders.In line with this thinking, John Hasnas,stated that "management's fundamental obligation is not to maximize the firm's financial success, but to Ensure its survival by balancing the conflicting claims of multiple stakeholders." John Elkington in Cannibal with Forks: The Triple Bottom Line Twentieth Century Business (1997) says that if a company wants to remain sustained, then he needs to consider not only the interests of the shareholders (profit), but also must pay attention to the welfare of the people which were in it and around (peoples) and environmental sustainability (planet). Stakeholder theory states that the basic duty of management is not to maximize the financial success of the company, but to ensure its survival by balancing the conflicting demands of various stakeholders. The Company shall be managed for the benefit of stakeholders, customers, suppliers, owners, employees, and local communities.The rights of these groups must be ensured and, further, the group must participate, in some sense, in decisions that substantially affect their welfare. Apart from the conceptual debate about the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). CSR in Indonesia has been acknowledged.Article 88, Law No. 19 of 2003 on State-Owned Enterprises (SOE Act), firmly establish the SOEs can set aside part of its profits for the purposes of development small businesses, cooperatives and community development around the SOE. Then, Act No. 40 Year 2007 on Limited Liability Companies, Article 74, confirms the existence of Corporate Social Responsibility in Limited Liability company in Indonesia. In fact, Article 74 is more advanced conceptually by putting social and environmental liability in limited liability company as a social mandatory, not just a moral and ethical responsibility. Article 74 has a power that can be enforced against a limited liability company to implement social and environmental liability. Shifting the paradigm of the management company which is intended only to the interests of shareholders (profit) in the direction of the management of the company, to consider the interests of all stakeholders, and environmental interests, assessed constitutional by theConstitutional Court on legal considerations in the Constitutional Court Decision 53 / PUU-VI / 2008, is explained, That the Indonesian economy system as set forth in Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution: The economy shall be organized as a common endeavour based upon the principles of the family system. Sectors of production which are important for the country and affect the life of the people shall be controlled by the state. The land, the waters and the natural riches contained therein shall be controlled by the State and exploited to the greatest benefit of the people. That understanding individualistic and liberalism in the economy was not fit, even contrary to economic democracy embraced by the nation of Indonesia. Earth, water and natural resources contained in it not only for the prosperity of the few entrepreneurs who have capital, but rather for the prosperity of the people. The economy as a joint venture, not only between employers and the state, but also collaboration between employers and the community, especially the surrounding community. Genuine concern of employers on their social environment will provide a secure business environment for the surrounding community feel cared by the employer, so it will strengthen the fabric of the relationship between employers and society. Based on the Decision of the Constitutional Court concluded that the Good Governance management company solely devoted to the interests of shareholders, are not in accordance with democratic principles adopted by the State Indonesian economy. Good Governance Management companies must instead be directed to the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Therefore, companies must be managed with due regard to the interests of all stakeholders, no exception labor / employees of the company. Thus, the management of the company to consider the interests of all stakeholders not only a moral responsibility of the company, but it is mandate in the company law. Oriented company management efforts to improve the welfare of all stakeholders, including workers / employees of the company is the embodiment of company's contribution to the mutual obligations between the government and the business community to improve the welfare of the community. Implementation of the Good Governance management company, for the benefit of stakeholders, did not specifically aimed at corporate responsibility efforts to improve the welfare of employees. Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law does not specifically direct the implementation of corporate social responsibility to the interests of employees. However, it does not mean that the discussion of social regulation of corporate governance efforts directed at improving the welfare of the employees concerned becomes unimportant. The ambiguity of Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law actually cause the position of employees as part of an internal stakeholders or primary stakeholders of the limited liability company grow weary and still received less attention.On 4th April 2012, the Government enacted Government Regulation No. 47 of 2012 on Social and Environmental Responsibility Company Limited. As the implementation of Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law, Government Regulation 47 of 2012 is focused on regulating the use of a limited liability company expense budget has been earmarked as the cost of social and environmental responsibility.However, this rule did not set out clear, the allocation of the budget, the amount of the budget and the subject use of the budget. Thus, it would be difficult to expect the implementation of this government regulation to improve the lives and welfare of labor as the company's internal stakeholders. Therefore, regulation of corporate governance is to realize the efforts to improve the standard of living and welfare of labor is still very necessary.The discussionabout the need forlegislationthatdirects the corporate governance management toimprove the lives and welfare of labor is still relevant and very important thing to do. At least there are some very basic reason the importance of the discussion of the need for legislation that directs thecorporate governance management to improve the welfare of labor in Indonesia, namely: First, Corporate Governance (CG) management that gives attention to efforts to improve the lives and welfare of employees / workers / labor is not a concern in the legislation governing the company in Indonesia. Legislation current regulating corporate governance is still dominated by the interests of employers in optimizing capital or capital to develop other businesses in order to generate profits and shareholder value. Although social and environmental responsibility has been used as a mandatory under Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law, but its application in the narrow scope led to the implementation of social and environmental responsibility under Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law is not very significant in efforts to improve the lives and well-being of the company workforce. Law governing companies, such as Act No. 40 of 2007 on Limited Liability Companies Act No. 19 of 2003 on State Owned Enterprises, Act No. 25 Year 2007 on Investment and Act No. 8 of 1995 on the Capital Market is more focused on efforts to the creation of a conducive business climate as a requirement that the business community in Indonesia can compete to face an increasingly competitive global competition. In other words, the main interest underlying the legislation was the interests of shareholders.Public welfare, including welfare of the workers, do not become a major priority of the legislation. Where noted, Article 43 paragraph (3) Limited Liability Company Law paves the way for efforts to improve the status and welfare of employees through the issuance of new shares that are specifically intended for employees. Through Article 43 paragraph (3) that, it is possible to elevate the position of the employees become shareholders through the Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). However Thus, the implementation of Article 43 paragraph (3) is highly dependent on the generosity of its shareholders through the Annual General Meeting(AGM), because after all if General Meeting of Shareholders does not decide that the issuance of new shares is specifically intended for the benefit of employees, the new shares shall first be offered to existing shareholders, or better known as the pre-emptive right. Basically some aspects of corporate governance related to efforts to improve the welfare of the employees as one of the stakeholders can be the rationale, for example: Protection of interests of employees, in various corporate action such as a merger, consolidation, acquisition, and spin-off companies, bankruptcy and liquidation of the company; efforts to increase the value and dignity of employees through improving the status of workers / employees become owners / shareholders as ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan, Profit Sharing etc), is an effort to increase that bipartite collaboration are mutually beneficial. Secondly, the setting of corporate social responsibility as stipulated in Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law, did not provide a strong emphasis on the use and size of the CSR fundfor efforts to improve the lives and welfare of employees as internal stakeholders. Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law and its implementing regulations as stipulated in Government Regulation No. 47 of 2012 on Social and Environmental Responsibility Company Limited is only intended to regulate the use of budget CSR General Meeting of Shareholders approved the Work Plan and Budget (CBP).Article 74 and its implementing regulations have not sufficiently regulate the practices of companies devoted to the interests of stakeholders, including workers / employees that are outside the company's CSR program budgeted. Article 74 and its implementing regulations are focused on the use of budget CSR for the benefit of local communities and the environment. The fate of the workers / employees still beyond the reach of Article 74 of the Limited Liability Company Law Jo. Government Regulation no. 47 in 2012. Thirdly, the accommodation is not enough on Principles of ISO 26000 as the standardization of CSR in the Limited Liability Company Law. For example, about 7 Principles of ISO 26000: ISO 26000 principles namely: 1. Community development; 2. Consumers; 3. Practice Institution healthy activities; 4. Environment; 5. Employment; 6. The Human Rights; 7.Organization Governance (Government Organization) Fourth, the welfare conditions of laborers / workers / employees which still a concern in Indonesia. Labor / Workers / Employees or more popular as workers have extremely significant contribution in supporting the Indonesian economy. Besides as a driver of economic state, workers also became one of the major strengths in building civilization. Labours or workers who drive the economic sectors under which incidentally has a tremendous contribution to the State's economy and to balance the savior even balance the State's economic growth. Ironically a very major role and importance is not getting an adequate appreciation of the government and the business world. Wages received by workers / employees are not comparable / insufficient to meet real needs. When compared with the speed of the increase in the cost of "running" while wages "going nowhere" no increase or even just suffered a setback.Of the Central Bureau of Statistics as overview in 2006 for simple decent life in Jakarta, someone has to spend between Rp 1.5 million to Rp 2 million per month for the purposes of daily life. Compared then to the local minimum wage in Jakarta which only Rp 950.000, - It is clear that it is impossible worker / laborer can live decently. Other data illustrate the inequities of life of workers / laborers are presented in the research of AKATIGA. Government efforts to create a conducive investment climate and invite as many foreign and domestic investors to encourage government to implement two basic strategies namely run low wage policy and apply the principles of liberalization, flexible and decentralized in matters of employment.The low wages of workers / labor, used as an attraction to invite investors.Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) includes wage / cheap labor in Indonesia, the minimum limit of the highest labor costs in Java (Rp. 1.3344 million, - per month - USD 147 per month) is still lower than the wages of workers in Thailand (USD 240 per month), even if the wages in Java are raised 50%.Labor wages is used as a negotiating tool in the management of the automotive component industry in Indonesia with Trade Unions is the main attraction of Indonesia to invite investors. Further explained that political cheap labor has proven to create life difficult labor because the average value of the minimum wage in Indonesia Rp 892.160, - only afford about 62.4% of real expenditures of workers / laborers. Fifth, handed efforts to improve the welfare of employees through legislation in the field of employment was inadequate. During this time, the problem is always delivered on labor welfare legislation in the field of employment. As described above, that the cheap labor led to the welfare of workers / laborers which not feasible. It is proved that the issue of lifting the standard of living and welfare of the workers / laborers can not be left solely to the legislation in the field of employment.Efforts to improve the standard of living and welfare of the workers / laborers need to be supported by the corporate governance management system which can support the improvement of the standard of living and welfare of workers / employees, either in the form of optimal utilization of corporate social responsibility and stewardship corporate governance rules, which can support the improvement of the standard life and welfare of the workers / employees. Sixth, the limited liability company law can be used as an instrument for efforts to improve the welfare of employees through corporate governance management arrangements that can improve the lives and well-being of employees. Thus, despite the existence of legislation in the field of employment, legislation governing its managed stylist, for example the Limited Liability Company Law, the Law on Enterprises, Investment Law, Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations can be used as an instrument to direct more attention to the behavior of the company interests of stakeholders, including workers / employees.IiIn such a context, the role of the State through the Government as law makers is necessary, so that the problems of workers welfare / employees are not solely left to the market mechanism with the argument of economic liberalization and globalization. In addition to the government party, the Company is a good alternative receptacle to resolve the problem, because the company provides a receptacle mutual benefit to work, learn, gain experience fitting, both in levels: Employee, Self-employed, Employer, and Investor (ESEI). Under conditions of the wise, the state described as a referee in a football game. He had no right to strike or hold the ball. That needs to be done is for the football game is running smoothly and there is no cheating. Is this value has been realized? And how it is with the role of the entrepreneur as the manager of the largest natural resource? The reality is that entrepreneurs can not immediately meet the standards of stakeholders, so that what is referred to as welfare is commensurate discourse. From the first, issues workers / employees being widely reported, but from the beginning anyway this issues is not resolved, resulting in gaps. To note in common, is that one of the drivers in the business in the last decade of this century in addition to the profitability of an investment in the form of people.

d) Dolus specialis: la atención especial por EcuadorUn capítulo importante en las relaciones entre Irán y América del Sur durante el bienio lo representa Ecuador (1). Pese a los altibajos, se mueve por varios niveles, y tiene una clara tendencia al incremento.En febrero de 2010, Ecuador se vió obligado a congelar un importante acuerdo en torno a un crédito otorgado a través del Export Development Bank of Iran, lo cual generó un importante debate político interno acerca de las características y alcances de este vínculo. El trasfondo de la decisión del Financial Action Task Force (FATF, entidad que combate el lavado de dinero) de incluir a Ecuador en la Lista de Países No Cumplidores de las recomendaciones del organismo.Pese al traspié, el Presidente Correa mantuvo la decisión de abrir una embajada en Teherán, lo que fue anunciado oficialmente en abril de 2010 y se materializó en julio de 2011, cuando Tomás Blis ha presentado sus cartas credenciales a M. Ahmedinejad como nuevo embajador ecuatoriano en Teherán.El antecedente de poder duro de mayor relevancia en el período es la creación a inicios de este año de un fondo binacional de US$ 30 millones para establecer un Centro de Investigación Geotécnico Químico-Metalúrgico destinado al estudio cartográfico y topográfico de Ecuador (2).En suma, pese a la enorme asimetría entre los dos países, la fructífera y activa relación bilateral ejemplifica la profundidad del despliegue iraní en la región.e) Consummatum est: la consolidación del despliegue en VenezuelaLas iniciativas registradas durante el bienio constituye no sólo el más importante verificador de la tendencia creciente que tiene la penetración iraní en la región, sino que por sus características cualitativas, permiten sostener la hipótesis de que Venezuela es el eslabón más fuerte que tiene el objetivo iraní de establecer unfoothold en América del Sur (3). Para ello ha contado hasta ahora con una muy elevada receptividad de parte del Presidente Chávez. Un posible agravamiento de su enfermedad es posibe que repercuta negativamente en esta tendencia in crescendo. El antecedente de mayor peso fue proporcionado por un informe del periódico alemán Die Welt que dice relación con el emplazamiento de misiles iraníes de corto y mediano alcance en la península de Paraguaná. Esta decisión venezolano-iraní se fundamenta en el acuerdo bilateral sobre cooperación estratégica, de carácter secreto, que los dos países firmaron el 19 de octubre de 2010. Más tarde, en mayo de 2011, ambos países decidieron la localización y entraron en la fase de construcción. Lo más relevante es que, por la parte iraní, la operación fue autorizada por el comandante de la Fuerza Aérea del Pasdaran Amir al-Hadjizadeh.Paraguaná se encuentra a proximadamente a 120 kms de la frontera con Colombia. Se trata de un lugar seleccionado por ingenieros militares del conglomerado Khatam al-Anbia, perteneciente al Pasdaran -viz infra-, quienes visitaron Venezuela con este propósito en febrero de 2011. La base deberá albergar especialistas de Pasdaran, estará equipado misiles Shahab-3 (alcance entre 1300 y 1500 kms.), Scud-B (285 a 330 kms) y Scud-C (300, 500 y 700 kms) (4).Se trata de un acuerdo que contempla la "transferencia de tecnología" y establece el desarrollo conjunto de un misil tierra-tierra de mediano alcance.El acuerdo bilateral que abre paso a esta base, ocurrió durante la visita que efectuó Chavez a Teherán en octubre de 2010, la novena durante su mandato. Fue una visita con acendrado carácter estratégico. Otro acuerdo firmado en esa ocasión fue uno para la creación de una sociedad de transporte marítimo de crudo, IRISL Group, abierto a trasladar este producto a terceros países.Durante el período estudiado se produjo otro antecedente de elevada significación para comprender la profundidad de los lazos bilaterales. Según la consultora Stratfor, la seguridad personal del Presidente Chavez pasó a ser respondabilidad de una unidad del Pasdaran.La evolución de esta relación bilateral no pasa inadvertida para EEUU. En el mes de mayo 2011, el Departamento de Estado aplicó sanciones a la petrolera estatal PdVSA, remitiéndose a normativas de 1996, y que podrían tener consecuencias muy negativas para la empresa. PdVSA no podrá participar en ningún contrato directamente con Washington ni acceder a programas de financiamiento para exportación e importación ni licencias para tecnologías petroleras estadounidenses. Para poner en perspectiva este paso dado por EEUU cabe recordar que hubo advertencias de que estas sanciones podrían ser aún más severas en los próximos meses si no se observa un cambio de conducta de PdVSA.Un asunto de cierto relieve ocurrido durante el bienio fue el abrupto final de la ruta Caracas-Damasco-Teherán ocurrido en septiembre del 2010 y que ejecutaban de forma coordinada Conviasa e IranAir. Estos vuelos, que por la falta de controles y situaciones extrañas (5) alimentaron especulaciones diversas, fueron suspendidos también de forma intempestiva, sin que exista información oficial al respecto. Según la consultora Stratfor, la suspensión del servicio se debe a que el Airbus 340 que realizaba la ruta está siendo sometido a mantenimento y estaría sin repuestos.Finalmente, en julio de 2011, los representantes Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Connie Mack y David Rivera enviaron una carta a la Secretaria de Estado solicitándole información acerca de proyectos agrícolas de papel financiados por los gobiernos argentinos e iraní y que no se ejecutaron. A juicio de los congresistas existen sospechas de que pudieron haber servido como mecanismo de pagos en la adquisición iraní de tecnología dual. Las sospechas se orientan a sobre-financiamiento de los programas de modernización de las centrales nucleares argentinas (Atucha I y Embalse) cuyo know how o materiales habrían sido desviados a Irán.En definitiva, los antecedentes acumulados durante el bienio 2010-2011 confirman la tendencia observable ab initio en el sentido de que el régimen chavista es el impulsor principal que ha tenido Irán en el hemisferio entero.Veritas diaboli, el PasdaranVarias son las razones que apuntan a la centralidad de este organismo en la penetración iraní en América del Sur. La primera es apunta a la verdadera constelación de altos cargos iraníes, o de terroristas del Hizbollah con fuertes vínculos con el régimen iraní, que Interpol busca en relación a los dos más grandes atentados terroristas registrados en la región. Otra razón es la centralidad que tiene en la jerarquí iraní el Pasdaran, y sus unidades de elite llamadas Brigadas Quds. Todos los proyectos e iniciativas iraníes en el mundo están supeditados los imperativos estratégicos del régimen, diseñados y supervisdados directamente por el Pasdaran.La importancia de Pasdaran en el régimen iraní que ilustrada en el siguiente gráfico:(6) Las Brigadas Quds (7) fueron creadas durante la guerra entre Irán e Irak en los 80s a partir del Pasdaran nacido, a su vez el 5 de mayo de 1979, y el número de sus integrantes es un misterio; las versiones de prensa la estiman entre 10 mil a 15 mil efectivos, otras dicen que no sobrepasa los 2 mil. Incluso, la obra colectiva de investigadores de la Rand Corporation "The rise of Pasdaran" ubica el número de integrantes de las Quds en 1000, aunque lo pone con un signo de interrogación, mientras que el de Pasdaran totalizaría 120 mil, y el de la milicia Bassij en 90 mil (8). Simbólicamente llevan como nombre la designación de Jerusalén en árabe y farsi (9) constituyen una unidad especial del Pasdaran, que reporta directamente al Líder Supremo, máximo cargo en la estructura del Estado, incluso por encima del Presidente. El primer comandante de Quds fue Mohses Resais y, desde marzo de 1998 hasta la actualidad, dicho cargo lo ejerce el Brigadier general Qassem Suleimani. Bednarz y Follat sostienen, además, que el mismo Presidente Ahmedinejad habría integrado la fuerza Quds durante el conflicto armado con Irak, a cargo de operaciones en territorio kurdo. Terminada la guerra contra Irak, la brigadas Quds no se disolvieron sino que fue reestructuradas en orden a cumplir tareas especiales "en territorio enemigo", destacando el entrenamiento, equipamiento y apoyo logístico a movimientos revolucionarios considerados necesarios para los imperativos estratégicos de Irán. En este sentido, su principal logro es la relación simbiótica alcanzada con el grupo libanés Hizbollah. Más tarde apoyaron la organización de organizaciones shiítas en Bosnia. Y en los últimos años han asistido a las células terroristas de inspiración shiíta que operan en Irak y reconocidas por su extraordinaria movilidad.La cifra de Rand significaría que Pasdaran equivale a un tercio de las FFAA regulares del país. Su máximo responsable es el general Mohammed Alí Jaafri (10) de 52 años y considerado uno de los hombres más influyentes del régimen. Su cantera de reclutamiento es la milicia Bassij, compuesta por más de 300 mil fanáticos religiosos con preparación militar básica, aunque podría movilizar hasta un millón de voluntarios si una situación de crisis grave lo demanda. Esta última es una milicia concebida como "poder de masas", análogo al existente en algunos países comunistas (verbigracia, los CDR en Cuba), sin grandes capacidades operativas por sí misma. La milicia Bassij tiene como principal objetivo expandir por el país un espíritu de lealtad y servicio martiriológico al régimen, especialmente entre jóvenes y estudiantes.La posición de Pasdaran en el régimen es fundamental y su poder va aún más lejos que la de un cuerpo de fuerzas especiales o unidades de comando especializadas en guerras asimétricas. Aparte de lo anterior es un híbrido con múltiples empresas y brazos, a través de los cuales controla áreas claves de la economía.Por ejemplo, uno de los conglomerados más significativos para el despliegue externo en áreas como América del Sur es Chatam al-Anbija, compuesto por más de 500 empresas de los rubros más diversos (que mueven más de la mitad de las importaciones y casi un tercio de las exportaciones e incluyendo, por ejemplo, participación en Telecom Iran), que le reportan en total más de US$ 5 mil millones en ganancias netas anuales (controlando de paso puertos enteros como Bandar Abbas) y que hace de este ejército paralelo una suerte de "estado dentro del estado" (11).El hecho que Alí Larijani (exnegociador para cuestiones nucleares con ONU y otros organismos internacionales y ex Presidente del Parlamento), así como su sucesor en las negociaciones nucleares, Said Djalili sean altos oficiales del Pasdaran confirman le presunción que todo aquello considerado dentro de los imperativos estratégicos del países responsabilidad de Pasdaran.En cuanto a su papel en el despliegue exterior de Irán debe señalarse que oficiales del Pasdaran suelen estar a cargo de la seguridad de embajadas iraníes en el exterior.Su estructura organizacional se divide en ocho Directorios (de distribución geográfica): a) Países Occidentales b) Afganistán-Pakistán-India c) Israel –Líbano –Jordania d) Turquia e) Africa f) Península Arábiga g) Asia (exsoviética). Su cuartel general estaría ubicado en las dependencias de la legendaria embajada de EEUU en Teherán que fue capturada por "estudiantes islámicos" en 1979 poniendo en jaque la política exterior del entonces Presidente Jimmy Carter.En definitiva, comprender la naturaleza del Pasdaran –y sus brigadas Quds- resulta fundamental para establecer los alcances de la penetración iraní en América del Sur.Una penetración que en los dos últimos años se ha hecho ostensible y compleja. El aumento de embajadas en la región y la hábil combinación de elementos de poder duro, blando y otros intermedios, observables en su despliegue por los países sudamericanos, especialmente en Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Ecuador y Venezuela, dan soporte a la presunción de que estamos en presencia de un asunto muy gravitante para la seguridad y la defensa del hemisferio.Conclusiones1. En el contexto de sus ambiciones nucleares y competencia estratégica con EEUU, Irán ha desarrollado una estrategia compleja para proyectarse sobre América Latina, con mayor énfasis en América del Sur. Su despliegue comprende elementos de poder blando, duros y otros intermedios que son utilizados de forma combinada, según realidades específicas.2. El objetivo de Irán durante el 2010-2011 fue articular complicidades en América del Sur. Los indicios señalan que continuará desplegando una vasta red de recursos materiales, con el objetivo de que ejerzan un papel disuasivo a la hora de un agravamiento de los conflictos entre Occidente y el régimen de Teherán. Pasdaran es una pieza clave para alzanzar estos objetivos.3. Tanto en lo cualitativo como en lo cuantitativo, la penetracion iraní en América del Sur registra un incremento significativo en el bienio 2010-2011. Venezuela y Bolivia son los países más receptivos, por lo que ambos han pasado a ser los principales eslabones de la penetración iraní en todo el hemisferio. En Venezuela ya ha establecido un footholding, en Bolivia está en vías.4. Una interrogante no menor es por qué la activa presencia iraní ocupa un lugar relativamente bajo en la agenda Obama. Una explicación posible es que actitudes y acciones más duras podrían agravar la ya de por sí deteriorada relación con Venezuela y Bolivia con el consecuente impacto en los demás países integrantes del ALBA y con ello, tangencialmente, en toda la región.(1) Esta comienza en enero de 2007 con motivo de la asunción del Presidente Rafael Correa a la que asiste Mahmud Ahmedinejad, lo que abrió paso a la apertura de oficinas comerciales en las respectivas embajadas y la firma de 18 acuerdos entre ambos gobiernos. Correa viaja a Teherán en septiembre de 2008 (la primera de un mandatario ecuatoriano) y califica de "estratégica" su nueva relación con Irán lo que lleva a Teherán al año siguiente a concederle a Ecuador un crédito por US$ 120 millones.(2) A modo de contexto vale la pena señalar que en 2008 Ecuador y Rusia firmaron un acuerdo similar orientado a buscar uranio.(3) Un importante antecedente muy indiciario de las tendencias generales observables es el trascendido no desmentido de que la empresa venezolana CAVIM, ganadora de la licitación para vender 18 mil fusiles a las FFAA uruguayas en 2007, era en realidad una intermediaria de fábricas iraníes.(4) Una prueba fehaciente de la presencia de Pasdaran en Venezuela ocurrió en mayo de 2009 cuando se precipitó a tierra un helicóptero cerca de la frontera con Colombia donde murieron al menos 4 de las 17 víctimas fatales eran oficiales del Pasdaran.(5) No se trataba de un vuelo comercial, pues la posibilidad de adquirir pasajes era prácticamente nula. Las reservas teléfonicas solían ser desviadas a un call center en Buenos Aires. El primero de estos vuelos, efectuados bajo code share, fue el 3 de marzo de 2007 y tenían lugar los sábados, rumbo a Teherán y los martes de regreso a Caracas; en ambos casos con escala técnica de 90 minutos en Damasco. A partir de finales del 2009 la frecuencia se redujo a dos por mes.(6) Bednarz, Dieter y Erich Follath "Iran, die Schattenkrieger", Der Spiegel N° 7, Hamburg, 2010, pag.88.(7)En ciertos textos es citada como Sepahe-Quds o Nirouye-Quds.(8) Op. cit, pag. 9(9) Op.cit. pag.89.(10) Dependiendo de la transcripción, en algunos textos, Mohammad Mohammed Alí Dschaafari o Alí Jafari.(11) Op. cit. pag. 90. *El autor es politólogo y periodista de la Universidad de Chile,PhD en Comunicaciones por la Universidad Carlos IV de Praga, República Checa y egresado del Centro Hemisférico de Estudios de la Defensa, National Defense University (CHDS-NDU). Ha sido jefe de la Mención en Relaciones Internacionales del Doctorado en Estudios Americanos de la Universidad de Santiago y jefe de Cátedra de Estudios Internacionales de la Academia Nacional de Estudios Políticos y Estratégicos (ANEPE) de Chile. En la actualidad es profesor de la ANEPE y la Universidad Alberto Hurtado de Santiago de Chile,profesor visitante del Colegio Interamericano de Defensa, Washington DC. Ha publicado varios artículos sobre terrorismo y seguridad internacional en revistas académicas, destacando "Los guiños de Mefisto. Relaciones Irán-América Latina, los casos de Chile y Argentina", "El síndrome de Herostratos o la conversión de terroristas en íconos". "Momentos palmerstonianos: retórica integracionista y conductas divisivas a la luz de la cumbre energética de 2007".BibliografíaBailey, Norman (2010) "What are the Persians doing over here?", Center for Hemispheric Policy, University of Miami, FL.BBC News (2009) "Profile: Iran´s Revolutionary Guards", 18 de octubrehttp://news.bbc.co.uk (accesado 17.6.2011)Bednarz, Dieter y Erich Follath (2010) "Iran, die Schattenkrieger", Der Spiegel N° 7, Hamburg.Bosworth, James (2011) "Hezbolah in Latin America: prioritizing in threat", Latin American Monitor. Disponible en http://www.csmonitor.org (accesado 10.7.2011)Botta, Paulo (2010) "La doble cara de Hezbollah en América Latina" CEMOC, Documento de Trabajo 01/2010, Buenos Aires._________ (2010) "América Latina y la No-Proliferación: elcaso iraní",__________ (2009) "Irán en América Latina. Desde Venezuela hacia Brasil", Agora Internacional vol 4 N° 9 pp. 43-47, Buenos Aires___________ (2010) Documento de Trabajo 02/2010, CEMOC, Buenos Aires.Caro, Isaac y M. Isabel Rodríguez (2009) "La presencia de Irán en América Latina a través de su infuencia en los países del ALBA" Atenea N° 500, Santiago de Chile, pp. 21-39.Davis, Lynn y Jeffrey Martini et al (211) "Iran nuclear future. Critical US policiy choices", Rand Corporation, Sta. Monica CA.Eliaschev, Pepe (2011) "El gobierno negocia con Irán dejar de lado la investigación de los atentados", Perfil, Buenos Aires, 26 de marzo._____________ (2011) "Venezuela e Irán arman una base militar", Perfil, Buenos Aires 15. de enero. Disponible en htpp://www.perfil.com (accesado 18.6.2011).Ferrand Nicole (2010) "The growing concern of Brazil & Iran", op-ed de Offnews.info . Disponible en http://www.ciempre.com (accesado 15.6.2011)Flemes, Daniel y Detlef Nolte (2010) "Alianzas externas para armamento y defensa" Foreign Affairs Latin America, vol 10 N° 1, pp. 2-13.Hulse N., Janie (2011) "Argentina reaches out to Iran despite AMIA charges".http://www.insightsfromthefield.org (accesado 3.5. 2011).Jorisch, Avi (2011) "Why Iran and Bolivia are in business", op-ed LADDO, 12 de mayo, http://www.ciempre.com (accesado 1.6.2011). Karmon, Ely (2009) "Iran and its proxy Hizbollah: strategic penetration in Latin America" Real Instituto Elcano WP N° 18, April 8th; disponible enhttp://www.realinstitutoelcano.org (accesado 18.6.2010)Ortiz, Roman (2011) "Obama, Irán, América Latina". Infolatam, Bogotá.Quennan, Gavriel (2011), "Pentagon concerned over Iran, Hizbullah in Latin America", Arutz Sheva. Disponible en http://www.israelnationalnews.com(accesado 10.7.2011).Sullivan, Mark (2011) "Latin America: terrorism issues" Congressional Research Service, Washington DC; disponible en http://www.crs.gov (accesado 25.6.2011).Wehrey, Frederic y Jerrold Green et al (2009) "The rise of Pasdaran", Rand Corporation, Sta. Monica CA.Wergin Clemens. y H. Strausberg. (2010) "Iran plant Bau einer Reketenstellung in Venezuela", Die Welt, 25 de noviembre.Wergin Clemens (2011) "Iranische Raketenbasis in Planungsphase", Die Welt, 13. de mayo.Wilner, Alexander (2011) "US and Iranian strategic competition: Iran´s perception on its external relations and their implication for the strategic competition with the US in the Gulf sept 2010- may 2011", CSISWitker, Ivan (2010) "Los guiños de Mefisto: la expansión de Irán en América Latina y sus implicancias para la seguridad de Chile y Argentina" in: Bartolomé, Mariano (ed.) "Seguridad y Defensa en tiempos del Bicentenario", CHDS-NDU, Washington DC. Edición argentina: Instituto de Publicaciones Navales, Buenos Aires). Versión digital disponible enhttp://www.ciempre.org

Debarun Bhattacharjya (" Formulating Asymmetric Decision Problems as Decision Circuits " and " From Reliability Block Diagrams to Fault Tree Circuits ") is a research staff member in the Risk Analytics team within the broader Business Analytics and Math Sciences division at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. He received his Ph.D. in management science and engineering at Stanford University. His primary research interests lie in decision and risk analysis, and probabilistic models and decision theory in artificial intelligence. Specifically, he has pursued research in probabilistic graphical models (influence diagrams and Bayesian networks), value of information, sensitivity analysis, and utility theory. His applied work has been in domains such as sales, energy, business services, and public policy. He has coauthored more than 10 publications in highly refereed journals and conference proceedings, as well as two patents. He was nominated by IBM management for the Young Researcher Connection at the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) Practice Conference in 2010. Email: debarunb@us.ibm.com . May Cheung (" Regulation Games Between Government and Competing Companies: Oil Spills and Other Disasters ") is an undergraduate senior in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University at Buffalo. Her research interests are in decision analysis, optimization, and simulation with respect to complex, high-impact decisions. Email: mgcheung@buffalo.edu . Léa A. Deleris (" From Reliability Block Diagrams to Fault Tree Circuits ") is a research staff member and manager at IBM Dublin Research Laboratory, where she oversees the Risk Collaboratory, a three-year research project funded in part by the Irish Industrial Development Agency around risk management, from stochastic optimization to the communication of risk information to decision makers. Prior to joining the Dublin lab, she was a research staff member with the Risk Analytics Group, Business Application and Mathematical Science Department, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York. Her primary interests have been in the fields of decision theory and risk analysis. Her work is currently focused on leveraging natural language processing techniques to facilitate the construction of risk models, distributed elicitation of expert opinions, and value of information problems. She holds a Ph.D. in management science and engineering from Stanford University. Email: lea.deleris@ie.ibm.com . Philippe Delquié (" Risk Measures from Risk-Reducing Experiments ") is an associate professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University, and holds a Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Professor Delquié's teaching and research are in decision, risk, and multicriteria analysis. His research is at the nexus of behavioral and normative theories of decision, addressing issues in preference elicitation, value of information, nonexpected utility models of choice, and risk measures. Prior to joining the George Washington University, he held academic appointments at INSEAD, the University of Texas at Austin, and École Normale Supérieure, France, and visiting appointments at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and has completed a term as an associate editor. Email: delquie@gwu.edu . Lorraine Dodd (" Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example ") is a highly respected international contributor to command and leadership studies within military and UK governmental command, control, intelligence and information analysis, and research. She has an honours degree in pure mathematics and an M.Sc. in operational research and management science from the University of Warwick majoring in catastrophe theory and nonlinearity. Her main interest is in sense-making, decision making, and risk taking under conditions of uncertainty, confusion, volatility, ambiguity, and contention, as applied to the study of institutions, organizations, society, people, and governance. She uses analogy with brain functions and coherent cellular functions to develop mathematical models of complex decision behavior. Her most recent studies include an application of a multiagency, multiperspective approaches to collaborative decision making and planning, and development of an "open-eyes/open-mind" framework to provide support to leaders when dealing with complex crises and "black swans." She has developed an understanding of the nonlinear, slow and fast dynamics of behavior, in particular, of means of organizing for agility in complex and uncertain environments. Email: l.dodd@cranfield.ac.uk . Rachele Foschi (" Interactions Between Ageing and Risk Properties in the Analysis of Burn-in Problems ") has an M.Sc. and a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Rome La Sapienza, where she also worked as a tutor for the courses of calculus and probability. Currently, she is an assistant professor in the Economics and Institutional Change Research Area at IMT (Institutions, Markets, Technologies) Advanced Studies, in Lucca, Italy. Her research interests include stochastic dependence, reliability, stochastic orders, point processes, and mathematical models in economics. Random sets and graphs, linguistics, and behavioral models are of broader interest to her. Email: rachele.foschi@imtlucca.it . Simon French (" Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis ") recently joined the Department of Statistics at the University of Warwick to become the director of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit. Prior to joining the University of Warwick, he was a professor of information and decision sciences at Manchester Business School. Simon's research career began in Bayesian statistics, and he was one of the first to apply hierarchical modeling, particularly in the domain of protein crystallography. Nowadays he is better known for his work on decision making, which began with his early work on decision theory. Over the years, his work has generally become more applied: looking at ways of supporting real decision makers facing major strategic and risk issues. In collaboration with psychologists, he has sought to support real decision makers and stakeholders in complex decisions in ways that are mindful of their human characteristics. He has a particular interest in societal decision making, particularly with respect to major risks. He has worked on public risk communication and engagement and the wider areas of stakeholder involvement and deliberative democracy. Simon has worked across the public and private sectors, often in contexts that relate to the environment, energy, food safety, and the nuclear industry. In all of his work, the emphasis is on multidisciplinary and participatory approaches to solving real problems. Email: simon.french@warwick.ac.uk . L. Robin Keller (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently the editor-in-chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Email: lrkeller@uci.edu . Miguel A. Lejeune (" Game Theoretical Approach for Reliable Enhanced Indexation ") is an assistant professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University (GWU) and holds a Ph.D. degree from Rutgers University. Prior to joining GWU, he was a visiting assistant professor in operations research at Carnegie Mellon University. His areas of expertise/research interests include stochastic programming, financial risk, and large-scale optimization. He is the recipient of a Young Investigator/CAREER Research Grant (2009) from the Army Research Office. He also received the IBM Smarter Planet Faculty Innovation Award (December 2011) and the Royal Belgian Sciences Academy Award for his master's thesis. Email: mlejeune@gwu.edu . Jason R. W. Merrick (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University. He has a D.Sc. in operations research from the George Washington University. He teaches courses in decision analysis, risk analysis, and simulation. His research is primarily in the area of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics. He has worked on projects ranging from assessing maritime oil transportation and ferry system safety, the environmental health of watersheds, and optimal replacement policies for rail tracks and machine tools, and he has received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the United States Coast Guard, the American Bureau of Shipping, British Petroleum, and Booz Allen Hamilton, among others. He has also performed training for Infineon Technologies, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, and Capital One Services. He is an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research. He is the information officer for the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. Email: jrmerric@vcu.edu . Gilberto Montibeller (" Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents ") is a tenured lecturer in decision sciences in the Department of Management at the London School of Economics (LSE). With a first degree in electrical engineering (Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Brazil, 1993), he started his career as an executive at British and American Tobacco. Moving back to academia, he was awarded a master's degree (UFSC, 1996) and a Ph.D. in production engineering (UFSC/University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom, 2000). He then continued his studies as a postdoctoral research fellow in management science at the University of Strathclyde (2002–2003). He is an area editor of the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and he is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and the EURO Journal on Decision Processes. His main research interest is on supporting strategic-level decision making, both in terms of decision analytic methodologies and of decision processes. He has been funded by the AXA Research Fund, United Kingdom's EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council), and Brazil's CAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior). His research has been published in journals such as the European Journal of Operational Research, Decision Support Systems, and OMEGA—The International Journal of Management Science. One of his papers, on the evaluation of strategic options and scenario planning, was awarded the Wiley Prize in Applied Decision Analysis by the International Society of Multi-Criteria Decision Making. He has had visiting positions at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria) and the University of Warwick (United Kingdom), and is a visiting associate professor of production engineering at the University of São Paulo (Brazil). He also has extensive experience in applying decision analysis in practice; over the past 17 years he has provided consulting to both private and public organizations in Europe and South America. He is a regular speaker at the LSE Executive Education courses. Email: g.montibeller@lse.ac.uk . M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell (" Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations ") specializes in engineering risk analysis with application to complex systems (space, medical, etc.). Her research has focused on explicit inclusion of human and organizational factors in the analysis of systems' failure risks. Her recent work is on the use of game theory in risk analysis with applications that have included counterterrorism and nuclear counterproliferation problems. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, the French Académie des Technologies, and of several boards, including Aerospace, Draper Laboratory, and In-Q-Tel. Dr. Paté-Cornell was a member of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board from December 2001 to 2008. She holds an engineering degree (applied mathematics and computer science) from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (France), an M.S. in operations research and a Ph.D. in engineering-economic systems, both from Stanford University. Email: mep@stanford.edu . Jesus Rios (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a research staff member at the IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. He has a Ph.D. in computer sciences and mathematical modeling from the University Rey Juan Carlos. Before joining IBM, he worked in several universities as a researcher, including the University of Manchester, the University of Luxembourg, Aalborg University, and Concordia University. He participated in the 2007 SAMSI program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events, and Decision Theory, and led work in the area of adversarial risk analysis. He has also worked as a consultant for clients in the transportation, distribution, energy, defense, and telecommunication sectors. His main research interests are in the areas of risk and decision analysis and its applications. Email: jriosal@us.ibm.com . David Rios Insua (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a professor of statistics and operations research at Rey Juan Carlos University and a member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences. He has written 15 monographs and more than 90 refereed papers in his areas of interest, which include decision analysis, negotiation analysis, risk analysis, and Bayesian statistics, and their applications. He is scientific advisor of AISoy Robotics. He is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis. Email: david.rios@urjc.es . Fabrizio Ruggeri (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is the director of research at IMATI CNR (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology at the Italian National Research Council) in Milano, Italy. He received a B.Sc. in mathematics from the University of Milano, an M.Sc. in statistics from Carnegie Mellon University, and a Ph.D. in statistics from Duke University. After a start as a researcher at Alfa Romeo and then a computer consultant, he has been working at CNR since 1987. His interests are mostly in Bayesian and industrial statistics, especially in robustness, decision analysis, reliability, and stochastic processes; recently, he got involved in biostatistics and biology as well. Dr. Ruggeri is an adjunct faculty member at the Polytechnic Institute (New York University), a faculty member in the Ph.D. program in mathematics and statistics at the University of Pavia, a foreign faculty member in the Ph.D. program in statistics at the University of Valparaiso, and a member of the advisory board of the Ph.D. program in mathematical engineering at Polytechnic of Milano. An ASA Fellow and an ISI elected member, Dr. Ruggeri is the current ISBA (International Society for Bayesian Analysis) president and former ENBIS (European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics) president. He is the editor-in-chief of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry and the Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability, and he is also the Chair of the Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes workshops and codirector of the Applied Bayesian Statistics summer school. Email: fabrizio@mi.imati.cnr.it . Juan Carlos Sevillano (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a part-time lecturer at the Department of Statistics and Operations Research II (Decision Methods) at the School of Economics of Complutense University. He holds a B.Sc. in mathematics from Complutense University and an M.Sc. in decision systems engineering from Rey Juan Carlos University. Email: sevimjc@ccee.ucm.es . Ross D. Shachter (" Formulating Asymmetric Decision Problems as Decision Circuits ") is an associate professor in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University, where his teaching includes probability, decision analysis, and influence diagrams. He has been at Stanford since earning his Ph.D. in operations research from the University of California, Berkeley in 1982, except for two years visiting the Duke University Center for Health Policy Research and Education. His main research focus has been on the communication and analysis of the relationships among uncertain quantities in the graphical representations called Bayesian belief networks and influence diagrams, and in the 1980s he developed the DAVID influence diagram processing system for the Macintosh. His research in medical decision analysis has included the analysis of vaccination strategies and cancer screening and follow-up. At Duke he helped to develop an influence diagram-based approach for medical technology assessment. He has served on the Decision Analysis Society (DAS) of INFORMS Council, chaired its student paper competition, organized the DAS cluster in Nashville, and was honored with its Best Publication Award. For INFORMS, he organized the 1992 Doctoral Colloquium and has been an associate editor in decision analysis for Management Science and Operations Research. He has also served as Program Chair and General Chair for the Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference. At Stanford he served from 1990 until 2011 as a resident fellow in an undergraduate dormitory, and he was active in planning the university's new student orientation activities and alcohol policy. Email: shachter@stanford.edu . Jim Q. Smith (" Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example ") has been a full professor of statistics at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom for 18 years, receiving a Ph.D. from Warwick University in 1977, and has more than 100 refereed publications in the area of Bayesian decision theory and related fields. He has particular interests in customizing probabilistic models in dynamic, high-dimensional problems to the practical needs of a decision maker, often using novel graphical approaches. As well as teaching decision analysis to more than 3,000 top math students in the United Kingdom and supervising 23 Ph.D. students in his areas of expertise, he has been chairman of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit at Warwick for 10 years, engaging vigorously in the university's interaction with industry and commerce. His book Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice was published by Cambridge University Press in 2010. Email: j.q.smith@warwick.ac.uk . Refik Soyer (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor of decision sciences and of statistics and the chair of the Department of Decision Sciences at the George Washington University (GWU). He also serves as the director of the Institute for Integrating Statistics in Decision Sciences at GWU. He received his D.Sc. in University of Sussex, England, and B.A. in Economics from Boğaziçi University, Turkey. His areas of interest are Bayesian statistics and decision analysis, stochastic modeling, statistical aspects of reliability analysis, and time-series analysis. He has published more than 90 articles. His work has appeared in journals such as Journal of the American Statistical Association; Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B.; Technometrics; Biometrics; Journal of Econometrics; Statistical Science; International Statistical Review; and Management Science. He has also coedited a volume titled Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective. Soyer is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, a fellow of the Turkish Statistical Association, and a fellow of the American Statistical Association. He was vice president of the International Association for Statistical Computing. He served on the editorial board of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and is currently an associate editor of the Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. Email: soyer@gwu.edu . Fabio Spizzichino (" Interactions Between Ageing and Risk Properties in the Analysis of Burn-in Problems ") is a full professor of probability theory at the Department of Mathematics, the Sapienza University of Rome. He teaches courses on introductory probability, advanced probability, and stochastic processes. In the past, he has also taught courses on basic mathematical statistics, Bayesian statistics, decision theory, and reliability theory. His primary research interests are related to probability theory and its applications. A partial list of scientific activities includes dependence models, stochastic ageing for lifetimes, and (semi-)copulas; first-passage times and optimal stopping times for Markov chains and discrete state-space processes; order statistics property for counting processes in continuous or discrete time, in one or more dimensions; sufficiency concepts in Bayesian statistics and stochastic filtering; and reliability of coherent systems and networks. He also has a strong interest in the connections among the above-mentioned topics and in their applications in different fields. At the present time, he is particularly interested in the relations among dependence, ageing, and utility functions. Email: fabio.spizzichino@uniroma1.it . Sumitra Sri Bhashyam (" Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents ") is a Ph.D. candidate in the Management Science Group at the London School of Economics (LSE). Her Ph.D. thesis is supervised by Dr. Gilberto Montibeller and cosupervised by Dr. David Lane. Her research interests include decision analysis, multicriteria decision analysis, preference modeling, and preference change. Before coming to study in the United Kingdom, Sri Bhashyam studied mathematics, physics, and computer sciences in France for two years, after which she moved to the United Kingdom to complete a B.A.Hons in marketing communications and then an M.Sc. in operational research from the LSE. She worked as a project manager at Xerox and, subsequently, as a consultant for an SME (small and medium enterprise) to help them set up their quality management system. Alongside the Ph.D., and participating in other research and consultancy projects, she has been a graduate teaching assistant for undergraduate, master, and executive students at the LSE. The courses she teaches include topics such as normative and descriptive decision theory, prescriptive decision analysis, simulation modeling and analysis. Email: s.sribhashyam@lse.ac.uk . Jun Zhuang (" Regulation Games Between Government and Competing Companies: Oil Spills and Other Disasters ") has been an assistant professor of industrial and systems engineering at the University at Buffalo, the State University of New York (SUNY-Buffalo), since he obtained his Ph.D. in industrial engineering in 2008 from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Dr. Zhuang's long-term research goal is to integrate operations research and game theory to better mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from both natural and man-made hazards. Other areas of interest include healthcare, sports, transportation, supply chain management, and sustainability. Dr. Zhuang's research has been supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) and National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and by the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) through the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). Dr. Zhuang is a fellow of the 2011 U.S. Air Force Summer Faculty Fellowship Program (AF SFFP), sponsored by the AFOSR. Dr. Zhuang is also a fellow of the 2009–2010 Next Generation of Hazards and Disasters Researchers Program, sponsored by the NSF. Dr. Zhuang is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and is the coeditor of Decision Analysis Today. Email: jzhuang@buffalo.edu .

Social innovations are activities aiming at implementation of social objectives, including mainly the improvement of life of individuals and social groups, together with public policy and management objectives. The essay indicates and discusses the most important contemporary problems, solving of which requires social innovations.

Social innovations precondition the progress of civilisation. The world needs not only new technologies, but also new solutions of social and institutional nature that would be conducive to achieving social goals.

Social innovations are experimental social actions of organisational and institutional nature that aim at improving the quality of life of individuals, communities, nations, companies, circles, or social groups. Their experimental nature stems from the fact of introducing unique and one-time solutions on a large scale, the end results of which are often difficult to be fully predicted. For example, it was difficult to believe that opening new labour markets for foreigners in the countries of the European Union, which can be treated as a social innovation aiming at development of the international labour market, will result in the rapid development of the low-cost airlines, the offer of which will be available to a larger group of recipients. In other words, social innovations differ from economic innovations, as they are not about implementation of new types of production or gaining new markets, but about satisfying new needs, which are not provided by the market. Therefore, the most important distinction consists in that social innovations are concerned with improving the well-being of individuals and communities by additional employment, or increased consumption, as well as participation in solving the problems of individuals and social groups [CSTP, 2011]. In general, social innovations are activities aiming at implementation of social objectives, including mainly the improvement of life of individuals and social groups together with the objectives of public policy and management [Kowalczyk, Sobiecki, 2017]. Their implementation requires global, national, and individual actions. This requires joint operations, both at the scale of the entire globe, as well as in particular interest groups.

Why are social innovations a key point for the progress of civilisation? This is the effect of the clear domination of economic aspects and discrimination of social aspects of this progress. Until the 19th century, the economy was a part of a social structure. As described by K. Polanyi, it was submerged in social relations [Polanyi, 2010, p. 56]. In traditional societies, the economic system was in fact derived from the organisation of the society itself. The economy, consisting of small and dispersed craft businesses, was a part of the social, family, and neighbourhood structure. In the 20th century the situation reversed – the economy started to be the force shaping social structures, positions of individual groups, areas of wealth and poverty. The economy and the market mechanism have become independent from the world of politics and society. Today, the corporations control our lives. They decide what we eat, what we watch, what we wear, where we work and what we do [Bakan, 2006, p. 13].

The corporations started this spectacular "march to rule the world" in the late 19th century. After about a hundred years, at the end of the 20th century, the state under the pressure of corporations and globalisation, started a gradual, but systematic withdrawal from the economy, market and many other functions traditionally belonging to it. As a result, at the end of the last century, a corporation has become a dominant institution in the world. A characteristic feature of this condition is that it gives a complete priority to the interests of corporations. They make decisions of often adverse consequences for the entire social groups, regions, or local communities. They lead to social tensions, political breakdowns, and most often to repeated market turbulences. Thus, a substantial minority (corporations) obtain inconceivable benefits at the expense of the vast majority, that is broad professional and social groups. The lack of relative balance between the economy and society is a barrier to the progress of civilisation.

A growing global concern is the problem of migration. The present crisis, left unresolved, in the long term will return multiplied. Today, there are about 500 million people living in Europe, 1.5 billion in Africa and the Middle East, but in 2100, the population of Europe will be about 400 million and of the Middle East and Africa approximately 4.5 billion. Solving this problem, mainly through social and political innovations, can take place only by a joint operation of highly developed and developing countries. Is it an easy task? It's very difficult. Unfortunately, today, the world is going in the opposite direction. Instead of pursuing the community, empathic thinking, it aims towards nationalism and chauvinism. An example might be a part of the inaugural address of President Donald Trump, who said that the right of all nations is to put their own interests first. Of course, the United States of America will think about their own interests. As we go in the opposite direction, those who deal with global issues say – nothing will change, unless there is some great crisis, a major disaster that would cause that the great of this world will come to senses.

J.E. Stiglitz [2004], contrary to the current thinking and practice, believes that a different and better world is possible. Globalisation contains the potential of countless benefits from which people both in developing and highly developed countries can benefit. But the practice so far proves that still it is not grown up enough to use its potential in a fair manner. What is needed are new solutions, most of all social and political innovations (political, because they involve a violation of the previous arrangement of interests). Failure to search for breakthrough innovations of social and political nature that would meet the modern challenges, can lead the world to a disaster. Social innovation, and not economic, because the contemporary civilisation problems have their roots in this dimension.

A global problem, solution of which requires innovations of social and political nature, is the disruption of the balance between work and capital. In 2010, 400 richest people had assets such as the half of the poorer population of the world. In 2016, such part was in the possession of only 8 people. This shows the dramatic collapse of the balance between work and capital. The world cannot develop creating the technological progress while increasing unjustified inequalities, which inevitably lead to an outbreak of civil disturbances. This outbreak can have various organisation forms. In the days of the Internet and social media, it is easier to communicate with people. Therefore, paradoxically, some modern technologies create the conditions facilitating social protests. There is one more important and dangerous effect of implementing technological innovations without simultaneous creation and implementation of social innovations limiting the sky-rocketing increase of economic (followed by social) diversification. Sooner or later, technological progress will become so widespread that, due to the relatively low prices, it will make it possible for the weapons of mass destruction, especially biological and chemical weapons, to reach small terrorist groups. Then, a total, individualized war of global reach can develop. The individualisation of war will follow, as described by the famous German sociologist Ulrich Beck.

To avoid this, it is worth looking at the achievements of the Polish scientist Michał Kalecki, who 75 years ago argued that capitalism alone is not able to develop. It is because it aggressively seeks profit growth, but cannot turn profit into some profitable investments. Therefore, when uncertainty grows, capitalism cannot develop itself, and it must be accompanied by external factors, named by Kalecki – external development factors. These factors include state expenses, finances and, in accordance with the nomenclature of Kalecki – epochal innovations. And what are the current possibilities of activation of the external factors? In short – modest. The countries are indebted, and the basis for the development in the last 20 years were loans, which contributed to the growth of debt of economic entities. What, then, should we do? It is necessary to look for cheaper solutions, but such that are effective, that is breakthrough innovations. These undoubtedly include social and political innovations. Contemporary social innovation is not about investing big money and expensive resources in production, e.g. of a very expensive vaccine, which would be available for a small group of recipients. Today's social innovation should stimulate the use of lower amounts of resources to produce more products available to larger groups of recipients.

The progress of civilisation happens only as a result of a sustainable development in economic, social, and now also ecological terms. Economic (business) innovations, which help accelerate the growth rate of production and services, contribute to economic development. Profits of corporations increase and, at the same time, the economic objectives of the corporations are realised. But are the objectives of the society as a whole and its members individually realised equally, in parallel? In the chain of social reproduction there are four repeated phases: production – distribution – exchange – consumption. The key point from the social point of view is the phase of distribution. But what are the rules of distribution, how much and who gets from this "cake" produced in the social process of production? In the today's increasingly global economy, the most important mechanism of distribution is the market mechanism. However, in the long run, this mechanism leads to growing income and welfare disparities of various social groups.
Although, the income and welfare diversity in itself is nothing wrong, as it is the result of the diversification of effectiveness of factors of production, including work, the growing disparities to a large extent cannot be justified. Economic situation of the society members increasingly depends not on the contribution of work, but on the size of the capital invested, and the market position of the economic entity, and on the "governing power of capital" on the market. It should also be noted that this diversification is also related to speculative activities. Disparities between the implemented economic and social innovations can lead to the collapse of the progress of civilisation.

Nowadays, economic crises are often justified by, indeed, social and political considerations, such as marginalisation of nation states, imbalance of power (or imbalance of fear), religious conflicts, nationalism, chauvinism, etc. It is also considered that the first global financial crisis of the 21st century originated from the wrong social policy pursued by the US Government, which led to the creation of a gigantic public debt, which consequently led to an economic breakdown. This resulted in the financial crisis, but also in deepening of the social imbalances and widening of the circles of poverty and social exclusion. It can even be stated that it was a crisis in public confidence. Therefore, the causes of crises are the conflicts between the economic dimension of the development and its social dimension.

Contemporary world is filled with various innovations of economic or business nature (including technological, product, marketing, and in part – organisational). The existing solutions can be a source of economic progress, which is a component of the progress of civilisation. However, economic innovations do not complete the entire progress of civilisation moreover, the saturation, and often supersaturation with implementations and economic innovations leads to an excessive use of material factors of production. As a consequence, it results in lowering of the efficiency of their use, unnecessary extra burden to the planet, and passing of the negative effects on the society and future generations (of consumers). On the other hand, it leads to forcing the consumption of durable consumer goods, and gathering them "just in case", and also to the low degree of their use (e.g. more cars in a household than its members results in the additional load on traffic routes, which results in an increase in the inconvenience of movement of people, thus to the reduction of the quality of life).

Introduction of yet another economic innovation will not solve this problem. It can be solved only by social innovations that are in a permanent shortage. A social innovation which fosters solving the issue of excessive accumulation of tangible production goods is a developing phenomenon called sharing economy. It is based on the principle: "the use of a service provided by some welfare does not require being its owner". This principle allows for an economic use of resources located in households, but which have been "latent" so far. In this way, increasing of the scope of services provided (transport, residential and tourist accommodation) does not require any growth of additional tangible resources of factors of production. So, it contributes to the growth of household incomes, and inhibition of loading the planet with material goods processed by man [see Poniatowska-Jaksch, Sobiecki, 2016]. Another example: we live in times, in which, contrary to the law of T. Malthus, the planet is able to feed all people, that is to guarantee their minimum required nutrients. But still, millions of people die of starvation and malnutrition, but also due to obesity. Can this problem be solved with another economic innovation? Certainly not! Economic innovations will certainly help to partially solve the problem of nutrition, at least by the new methods of storing and preservation of foods, to reduce its waste in the phase of storage and transport. However, a key condition to solve this problem is to create and implement an innovation of a social nature (in many cases also political). We will not be able to speak about the progress of civilisation in a situation, where there are people dying of starvation and malnutrition.

A growing global social concern, resulting from implementation of an economic (technological) innovation will be robotisation, and more specifically – the effects arising from its dissemination on a large scale. So far, the issue has been postponed due to globalisation of the labour market, which led to cheapening of the work factor by more than ten times in the countries of Asia or South America. But it ends slowly. Labour becomes more and more expensive, which means that the robots become relatively cheap. The mechanism leading to low prices of the labour factor expires. Wages increase, and this changes the relationship of the prices of capital and labour. Capital becomes relatively cheaper and cheaper, and this leads to reducing of the demand for work, at the same time increasing the demand for capital (in the form of robots).

The introduction of robots will be an effect of the phenomenon of substitution of the factors of production. A cheaper factor (in this case capital in the form of robots) will be cheaper than the same activities performed by man. According to W. Szymański [2017], such change is a dysfunction of capitalism. A great challenge, because capitalism is based on the market-driven shaping of income. The market-driven shaping of income means that the income is derived from the sale of the factors of production. Most people have income from employment. Robots change this mechanism. It is estimated that scientific progress allows to create such number of robots that will replace billion people in the world. What will happen to those "superseded", what will replace the income from human labour? Capitalism will face an institutional challenge, and must replace the market-driven shaping of income with another, new one. The introduction of robots means microeconomic battle with the barrier of demand. To sell more, one needs to cut costs. The costs are lowered by the introduction of robots, but the use of robots reduces the demand for human labour. Lowering the demand for human labour results in the reduction of employment, and lower wages. Lower wages result in the reduction of the demand for goods and services. To increase the demand for goods and services, the companies must lower their costs, so they increase the involvement of robots, etc.

A mechanism of the vicious circle appears

If such a mass substitution of the factors of production is unfavourable from the point of view of stimulating the development of the economy, then something must be done to improve the adverse price relations for labour. How can the conditions of competition between a robot and a man be made equal, at least partially? Robots should be taxed. Bill Gates, among others, is a supporter of such a solution. However, this is only one of the tools that can be used. The solution of the problem requires a change in the mechanism, so a breakthrough innovation of a social and political nature. We can say that technological and product innovations force the creation of social and political innovations (maybe institutional changes). Product innovations solve some problems (e.g. they contribute to the reduction of production costs), but at the same time, give rise to others.

Progress of civilisation for centuries and even millennia was primarily an intellectual progress. It was difficult to discuss economic progress at that time. Then we had to deal with the imbalance between the economic and the social element. The insufficiency of the economic factor (otherwise than it is today) was the reason for the tensions and crises. Estimates of growth indicate that the increase in industrial production from ancient times to the first industrial revolution, that is until about 1700, was 0.1-0.2 per year on average. Only the next centuries brought about systematically increasing pace of economic growth. During 1700- 1820, it was 0.5% on an annual average, and between 1820-1913 – 1.5%, and between 1913-2012 – 3.0% [Piketty, 2015, p. 97]. So, the significant pace of the economic growth is found only at the turn of the 19th and 20th century. Additionally, the growth in this period refers predominantly to Europe and North America. The countries on other continents were either stuck in colonialism, structurally similar to the medieval period, or "lived" on the history of their former glory, as, for example, China and Japan, or to a lesser extent some countries of the Middle East and South America. The growth, having then the signs of the modern growth, that is the growth based on technological progress, was attributed mainly to Europe and the United States.

The progress of civilisation requires the creation of new social initiatives. Social innovations are indeed an additional capital to keep the social structure in balance. The social capital is seen as a means and purpose and as a primary source of new values for the members of the society. Social innovations also motivate every citizen to actively participate in this process. It is necessary, because traditional ways of solving social problems, even those known for a long time as unemployment, ageing of the society, or exclusion of considerable social and professional groups from the social and economic development, simply fail. "Old" problems are joined by new ones, such as the increase of social inequalities, climate change, or rapidly growing environmental pollution. New phenomena and problems require new solutions, changes to existing procedures, programmes, and often a completely different approach and instruments [Kowalczyk, Sobiecki, 2017].

Ali E. Abbas (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is an associate professor in the Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. He received an M.S. in electrical engineering (1998), an M.S. in engineering economic systems and operations research (2001), a Ph.D. in management science and engineering (2003), and a Ph.D. (minor) in electrical engineering, all from Stanford University. He worked as a lecturer in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford and in Schlumberger Oilfield Services, where he held several international positions in wireline logging, operations management, and international training. He has also worked on several consulting projects for mergers and acquisitions in California, and cotaught several executive seminars on decision analysis at Strategic Decisions Group in Menlo Park, California. His research interests include utility theory, decision making with incomplete information and preferences, dynamic programming, and information theory. Dr. Abbas is a senior member of the IEEE and a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). He is also an associate editor for the Decision Analysis and Operations Research journals of INFORMS. Address: Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 117 Transportation Building, MC-238, 104 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801; e-mail: aliabbas@illinois.edu . J. Eric Bickel (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is an assistant professor in both the Graduate Program in Operations Research (Department of Mechanical Engineering) and the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. In addition, Professor Bickel is a fellow in both the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy and the Center for Petroleum Asset Risk Management. He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering–Economic Systems at Stanford University and a B.S. in mechanical engineering with a minor in economics from New Mexico State University. His research interests include the theory and practice of decision analysis and its application in the energy and climate-change arenas. His research has addressed the modeling of probabilistic dependence, value of information, scoring rules, calibration, risk preference, education, decision making in sports, and climate engineering as a response to climate change. Prior to returning to academia, Eric was a senior engagement manager for Strategic Decisions Group. He has consulted around the world in a range of industries, including oil and gas, electricity generation/transmission/delivery, energy trading and marketing, commodity and specialty chemicals, life sciences, financial services, and metals and mining. Address: Graduate Program in Operations Research, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C2200, Austin, TX 78712-0292; e-mail: ebickel@mail.utexas.edu . Vicki M. Bier (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis" and "Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility ") is a full professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she is currently department chair and also directs the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis. She is also the president of the Decision Analysis Society. Her research interests include applications of operations research, risk analysis, and decision analysis to problems of homeland security and critical infrastructure protection. Address: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Mechanical Engineering Building, Room 3270A, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706; e-mail: bier@engr.wisc.edu . David V. Budescu (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is the Anne Anastasi Professor of Psychometrics and Quantitative Psychology at Fordham University. He held positions at the University of Illinois and the University of Haifa, and visiting positions at Carnegie Mellon University, University of Gotheborg, the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, the Hebrew University, and the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion). His research is in the areas of human judgment, individual and group decision making under uncertainty and with incomplete and vague information, and statistics for the behavioral and social sciences. He is on the editorial boards of Applied Psychological Measurement; Decision Analysis; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making; Journal of Mathematical Psychology; Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition (2000–2003); Multivariate Behavioral Research; Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (1992–2002); and Psychological Methods (1996–2000). He is past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (2000–2001), fellow of the Association for Psychological Science, and an elected member of the Society of Multivariate Experimental Psychologists. Address: Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, New York, NY 10458; e-mail: budescu@fordham.edu . John C. Butler (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is a clinical associate professor of finance and the academic director of the Energy Management and Innovation Center in the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, and he is the secretary/treasurer of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. Butler received his Ph.D. in management science and information systems from the University of Texas at Austin in 1998. His research interests involve the use of decision science models to support decision making, with a particular emphasis on decision and risk analysis models with multiple performance criteria. Butler has consulted with a number of organizations regarding the application of decision analysis tools to a variety of practical problems. Most of his consulting projects involve use of Visual Basic for Applications and Excel to implement complex decision science models in a user friendly format. Address: Energy Management and Innovation Center, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712-1178; e-mail: john.butler2@mccombs.utexas.edu . Stephen P. Chambal (" A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models ") earned a Ph.D. from Arizona State University in industrial engineering and is vice president for the Perduco Group responsible for strategic business development for federal services. The Perduco Group provides high-end operations research and business intelligence support to the Department of Defense. Dr. Chambal recently retired from the U.S. Air Force after more than 24 years of honorable service. Most recently, he served as the director of Operational Analysis for the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Chambal enlisted in the Air Force in 1986 and obtained his commission from the Air Force Academy in 1993. He held various assignments within the scientific analysis career field, including test, space, and special programs and has authored or coauthored numerous articles, white papers, and conference presentations. Address: 256 Earlsgate Road, Dayton, OH 45440; e-mail: stephen.chambal@theperducogroup.com . Philippe Delquié (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is an associate professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University and holds a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Professor Delquié's teaching and research are in decision, risk, and multicriteria analysis. His work addresses behavioral and normative issues in preference assessment, value of information, nonexpected utility models of choice under risk, and risk measures. Prior to joining the George Washington University, Delquié held academic appointments at INSEAD, École Normale Supérieure, France, and the University of Texas at Austin, and visiting appointments at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. Address: Department of Decision Sciences, The George Washington University, Funger Hall, Suite 415, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: delquie@gwu.edu . Alex J. Gutman (" A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models ") is a research associate for the Air Force Institute of Technology's (AFIT) Center for Operational Analysis. He holds an M.S. and B.S. in mathematics from Wright State University and is currently a Ph.D. student at AFIT. His research interests include decision analysis, algorithm design, and design of experiments. He is a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), the Military Operations Research Society (MORS), and the International Test and Evaluation Association (ITEA). Address: Department of Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of Technology, Dayton, OH 45433; e-mail: agutman@afit.edu . David J. Johnstone (" Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities ") is the National Australia Bank Professor of Finance at the University of Sydney. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Sydney. His research is primarily in the statistical foundations of financial markets and financial decisions. His professional activities involve more conventional subjects in finance, particularly business valuation and capital budgeting. Address: Discipline of Finance H69, University of Sydney Business School, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia; e-mail: david.johnstone@sydney.edu.au . Victor Richmond R. Jose (" Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities ") is an assistant professor of Operations and Information Management in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. His main research interests lie in decision analysis and the use of Bayesian statistical methods in management science, operations research, and risk analysis. Address: Operations and Information Management Department, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057; e-mail: vrj2@georgetown.edu . Yucel R. Kahraman (" A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models ") is a recent graduate of the Air Force Institute of Technology, where he received his M.Sc. in operations research. He graduated from ISIKLAR Military High School in Bursa in 1985 and entered the Turkish Air Force Academy in Istanbul. He graduated in 1993 with a bachelor's degree in aeronautical engineering. He completed pilot training at Laughlin AFB in Del Rio, Texas, and has flown fighter aircraft for the Turkish Air Force for 10 years. Address: Department of Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, WPAFB, Ohio 45433-7765; e-mail: yucelrkahraman@gmail.com . L. Robin Keller (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a Fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Address: Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-3125; e-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu . Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is an assistant professor who teaches quantitative analysis courses in Darden's MBA program at the University of Virginia. His research focuses on eliciting, evaluating, and combining expert probability forecasts for use in dynamic decision situations. His current research projects include the performance of inference in Bayesian models of dynamic expert forecasts and the formulation optimal strategies in forecasting competitions. Lichtendahl joined the Darden faculty in 2006. Previously, he served as a visiting instructor in the economics department at Duke University. Currently, he also serves as a business consultant and director for the Tradewinds Beverage Company, which he cofounded in 1992. Address: Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, 100 Darden Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA 22903; e-mail: lichtendahlc@darden.virginia.edu . Jason R. W. Merrick (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is a professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University. He has a D.Sc. in operations research from George Washington University. He teaches courses in decision analysis, risk analysis, and simulation. His research is primarily in the area of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics. He has worked on projects ranging from assessing maritime oil transportation and ferry system safety, the environmental health of watersheds, and optimal replacement policies for rail tracks and machine tools. He has received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the American Bureau of Shipping, British Petroleum, and Booz-Allen-Hamilton, among others. He has also performed training for Infineon Technologies, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, and Capital One Services. He is an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research. He is the information officer for the Decision Analysis Society. Address: Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284; e-mail: jrmerric@vcu.edu . Ahti Salo (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") is a professor of systems analysis in the Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis at Aalto University. His research interests include topics in portfolio decision analysis, multicriteria decision making, risk management, efficiency analysis, and technology foresight. He is currently president of the Finnish Operations Research Society (FORS) and represents Europe and the Middle East in the INFORMS International Activities Committee. Recently, he has been appointed Editor-in-Chief of the EURO Journal on Decision Processes, launched by the Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO). Professor Salo has been responsible for the methodological design and implementation of numerous high-impact decision and policy processes, including FinnSight 2015, the national foresight exercise of the Academy of Finland and the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovations (Tekes). Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. Box 11100, 00076 Aalto, Finland; e-mail: ahti.salo@aalto.fi . Chen Wang (" Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility ") is currently a Ph.D. student in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. She holds a master's degree in industrial engineering also from the same department. Chen works as a research assistant in the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, under the supervision of Professor Vicki M. Bier. Her research interests include application of operations research and decision analysis in security problems and critical infrastructure protection. Address: 3239 Mechanical Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706; e-mail: cwang37@wisc.edu . Jeffery D. Weir (" A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models ") is an associate professor in the Department of Operational Sciences at the Air Force Institute of Technology. He has a Ph.D. in industrial and systems engineering from Georgia Tech. He teaches courses in decision analysis, risk analysis, and multiobjective optimization. His research interests are in the areas of decision analysis and transportation modeling. A former officer in the U.S. Air Force, he has worked on a wide variety of projects ranging from scheduling and routing aircraft, determining the value of future intelligence information, assessing the impact of FAA regulation changes to passenger and aircrew safety, and mode selection for multimodal multicommodity distribution networks. He has received grants from the Defense Intelligence Agency, U.S. Transportation Command, Air Force Material Command, the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, Air Force Research Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, among others. Address: Department of Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of Technology, Dayton, OH 45433; e-mail: jweir@afit.edu . Robert L. Winkler (" Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities ") is James B. Duke Professor in the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and also holds an appointment in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke. His primary research areas include decision analysis, Bayesian statistics, probability forecasting, competitive decision making, and risk analysis. Address: Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 100 Fuqua Drive, Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120; e-mail: rwinkler@duke.edu . George Wu (" From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis ") has been on the faculty of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business since September 1997. His degrees include A.B. (applied mathematics, 1985), S.M. (applied mathematics, 1987), and Ph.D. (decision sciences, 1991), all from Harvard University. Prior to joining the faculty at the University of Chicago, Professor Wu was on the faculty at Harvard Business School. Wu worked as a decision analyst at Procter & Gamble prior to starting graduate school. His research interests include descriptive and prescriptive aspects of decision making, in particular, decision making involving risk, cognitive biases in bargaining and negotiation, and managerial and organizational decision making. Professor Wu is a coordinating editor for Theory and Decision, an advisory editor for Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, and an associate editor of Decision Analysis. He is on the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and is a former department editor of Management Science. Address: Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue, Chicago, IL 60636; e-mail: wu@chicagobooth.edu . Alexander Zimper (" Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity? ") is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Pretoria and holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Mannheim. He started out as a specialist on iterative solution concepts for strategic games, but his current research interests concern topics in economic theory in the broadest sense. He does not believe that there is one big truth out there but rather that classical as well as bounded-rationality approaches provide us with structures that may improve—within their respective limits—our understanding of reality. His most recent work is on plausible refinements of Roy Radner's rational expectations equilibrium, existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium price function in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with ambiguous beliefs, overreaction and underreaction in asset markets, and optimal liquidity provision under demand deposit schemes. His work in decision theory mainly concerns dynamically inconsistent behavior arising from ambiguity attitudes and, in particular, Bayesian learning modeled within nonadditive probability spaces. Address: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa; e-mail: alexander.zimper@up.ac.za .