Effectiveness of in planta control measures for Xylella fastidiosa
In: EFSA journal, Band 17, Heft 5
ISSN: 1831-4732
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In: EFSA journal, Band 17, Heft 5
ISSN: 1831-4732
In: EFSA journal, Band 20, Heft 12
ISSN: 1831-4732
In: EFSA journal, Band 20, Heft 11
ISSN: 1831-4732
In: EFSA journal, Band 22, Heft 4
ISSN: 1831-4732
The exact timing, route, and process of the initial peopling of the Americas remains uncertain despite much research. Archaeological evidence indicates the presence of humans as far as southern Chile by 14.6 thousand years ago (ka), shortly after the Pleistocene ice sheets blocking access from eastern Beringia began to retreat. Genetic estimates of the timing and route of entry have been constrained by the lack of suitable calibration points and low genetic diversity of Native Americans. We sequenced 92wholemitochondrial genomes from pre-Columbian South American skeletons dating from 8.6 to 0.5 ka, allowing a detailed, temporally calibrated reconstruction of the peopling of the Americas in a Bayesian coalescent analysis. The data suggest that a small population entered the Americas via a coastal route around 16.0 ka, following previous isolation in eastern Beringia for ∼2.4 to 9 thousand years after separation from eastern Siberian populations. Following a rapid movement throughout the Americas, limited gene flow in South America resulted in a marked phylogeographic structure of populations, which persisted through time. All of the ancient mitochondrial lineages detected in this study were absent from modern data sets, suggesting a high extinction rate. To investigate this further, we applied a novel principal components multiple logistic regression test to Bayesian serial coalescent simulations. The analysis supported a scenario in which European colonization caused a substantial loss of pre-Columbian lineages. ; Fil: Llamas, Bastien. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Fehren Schmitz, Lars. University of California; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Valverde, Guido. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Soubrier, Julien. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Mallick, Swapan. Harvard Medical School; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Rohland, Nadin. Harvard Medical School; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Nordenfelt, Susanne. Harvard Medical School; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Valdiosera, Cristina. La Trobe University; Australia ; Fil: Richards, Stephen M. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Rohrlach, Adam. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Barreto Romero, Maria Inés. Museo de Sitio Huaca Pucllana; Perú ; Fil: Flores Espinoza, Isabel. Museo de Sitio Huaca Pucllana; Perú ; Fil: Tomasto Cagigao, Elsa. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; Perú ; Fil: Watson Jiménez, Lucía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Arqueológicas del Museo de Sitio de Ancón; Perú ; Fil: Makowski, Krzysztof. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; Perú ; Fil: Leboreiro Reyna, Ilán Santiago. Instituto Nacional de Antropologia E Historia, Mexico; México ; Fil: Mansilla Lory, Josefina. Instituto Nacional de Antropologia E Historia, Mexico; México ; Fil: Ballivián Torrez, Julio Alejandro. Unidad de Arqueología y Museos; Bolivia ; Fil: Rivera, Mario A. Universidad de Magallanes; Chile ; Fil: Burger, Richard L. Harvard University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ceruti, Maria Constanza. Universidad Católica de Salta; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina ; Fil: Reinhard, Johan. National Geographic Society; Fil: Wells, R. Spencer. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos. National Geographic Society; Fil: Politis, Gustavo Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Investigaciones Arqueológicas y Paleontológicas del Cuaternario Pampeano. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Investigaciones Arqueológicas y Paleontológicas del Cuaternario Pampeano; Argentina ; Fil: Santoro Vargas, Calogero Mauricio. Universidad de Tarapacá de Arica; Chile ; Fil: Standen, Vivien G. Universidad de Tarapacá de Arica; Chile ; Fil: Smith, Colin. La Trobe University; Australia ; Fil: Reich, David. Harvard Medical School; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ho, Simon Y. W. The University Of Sydney; Australia ; Fil: Cooper, Alan. University of Adelaide; Australia ; Fil: Haak, Wolfgang. University of Adelaide; Australia
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Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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