Suchergebnisse

"Tuvalu, the fourth smallest country in the world, with an estimated population of 10,440, is an isolated and resource-poor country that relies mainly on royalties received for access to its exclusive economic zone and remittances as its main sources of foreign exchange. This case study describes how the Falekaupule Trust Fund (FTF) was established in the 1990s, with support from the ADB, as a mechanism to help build capacity for outer island development, relying on participatory methods to "put power in the hands of community members". This sub-series is published by the Asian Development Bank to provide the governments of its Pacific developing member countries (PDMCs) with analyses and insights on key issues and lessons learned with respect to capacity development. Cases studied highlight a range of experiences throughout the region by sector, theme and source of external support, revealing approaches to capacity development that work best and the conditions that have been conducive to their success. They also explore the unique challenges faced by PDMCs in addressing capacity constraints as well as some of the opportunities facing governments and the people in the Pacific islands. Among other things, the case studies underline the importance of PDMC leadership, engagement of local partners, strategic attention to long-term capacity issues and effective use of external resources. It is our hope that the findings in these reports will help to guide future capacity building efforts in the Pacific."

Emerging from the ethnic tensions that tore the Solomon Islands apart from 1998 to 2003, the country's Ministry of Infrastructure Development (MID) faced a number of serious challenges. Given the vast needs in the country it was also called upon to take a leading role in post-conflict reconstruction and providing some of the foundations for economic renewal. This case study examines how capacity issues were addressed within MID in the post-conflict period and how the sense of crisis which prevailed in the country opened up opportunities to explore new institutional arrangements and ways of addressing infrastructure issues. This subseries is published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide the governments of its Pacific developing member countries (PDMCs) with analyses and insights on key issues and lessons learned with respect to capacity development. Cases studied highlight a range of experiences throughout the region by sector, theme, and source of external support, revealing approaches to capacity development that work best and the conditions that have been conducive to their success. They also explore the unique challenges faced by PDMCs in addressing capacity constraints as well as some opportunities facing governments and the people in the Pacific islands. Among other things, the case studies underline the importance of PDMC leadership, engagement of local partners, strategic attention to long-term capacity issues, and effective use of external resources. We hope that the findings in these reports will help guide future capacity building efforts in the Pacific.

The Provincial Performance Improvement Initiative (PPM) is a Papua New Guinean (PNG) Government undertaking that seeks to improve public administration at the subnational level. The case study describes how PPM has benefited from "enthusiastic leadership" and a high level of PNG ownership. The initiative has also built on a systematic diagnosis of capacity issues, with PNG stakeholders playing a central role in both the diagnosis and in the subsequent preparation of capacity development plans for participating provinces. This AusAID-funded initiative has a projected timeframe of 15-20 years with a design that recognizes the need to proceed at a pace consistent with the capabilities and absorptive capacity of participating provinces and districts. This sub-series is published by the Asian Development Bank to provide the governments of its Pacific developing member countries (PDMCs) with analyses and insights on key issues and lessons learned with respect to capacity development. Cases studied highlight a range of experiences throughout the region by sector, theme and source of external support, revealing approaches to capacity development that work best and the conditions that have been conducive to their success. They also explore the unique challenges faced by PDMCs in addressing capacity constraints as well as some of the opportunities facing governments and the people in the Pacific islands. Among other things, the case studies underline the importance of PDMC leadership, engagement of local partners, strategic attention to long-term capacity issues and effective use of external resources. It is our hope that the findings in these reports will help to guide future capacity building efforts in the Pacific.

This edited collection is a result of the scientific project Identities of Serbian Music Within the Local and Global Framework: Traditions, Changes, Challenges (No. 177004, 2011–2019), funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, and implemented by the Institute of Musicology SASA (Belgrade, Serbia). It is also a result of work on the bilateral project carried out by the Center for International Relations (Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana) and the Institute of Musicology SASA (Belgrade, Serbia) entitled Music as a Means of Cultural Diplomacy of Small Transition Countries: The Cases of Slovenia and Serbia (with financial support of ARRS). The process of its publishing was financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. ; Culture and cultural artefacts have been an important instrument of establishing and maintaining political relations between different peoples and states since the emergence of diplomatic practice in the 17th century, and some authors date this practice as far back as the period of ancient civilizations. Despite the long history of using culture for different political purposes and interests, particularly in relation to bonding peoples and states or increasing their influence, it was not until the creation of nation-states and, above all, the development of modern mass media such as widespread newspapers and journals, and regional and national radio and TV stations that this practice flourished and gained prominence. Therefore, it is no coincidence that researchers of this topic mainly on the last two centuries, particularly the Cold War era as one of the peak moments when it comes to creatively employing cultural products to achieve an array of nationally and internationally oriented political goals. Apart from revealing how diverse cultural actions contributed to the promotion of the countries of both the Western and the Eastern Bloc, along with their dominant values and ideology, a large number of studies published in the recent decades have also served to indirectly point to the necessity of thorough examination of the cultural part of foreign policy making and international relations, to providing it a stronger theoretical foundation and to the importance of including in the analyses different cases from different periods. Academics active in this area emphasize the need for greater clarity in defining key concepts and classificatory schemes in the analysis of cultural segments of international relations. For instance, Ang, Isar Ray and Mar highlight the popularity and, at the same time, the obscurity of the concept of cultural diplomacy, which has been given a dominant place in debates starting from the beginning of the 21st century. As these authors observe, the semantic field of this term has "broadened considerably over the years," making it applicable to "pretty much any practice that is related to purposeful cultural cooperation between nations or group of nations." This tendency not only contributed to a blurring of the lines between the concept of cultural diplomacy and other concepts that evolved prior to its expansion, including international cultural relations, public diplomacy and soft power, but also undermined the efforts to create a more coherent approach to the research of cultural phenomena in the domain of international relations. The issue is exacerbated by the heterogeneous disciplinary framing of this topic. Although it is mainly explored in the areas of political sciences and history, interest in researching the phenomenon also appears in other fields, including sociology, art history, musicology, ethnomusicology, etc. Apart from the fact that uncritical use of the concept of cultural diplomacy has made it "a floating signifier," an even more challenging consequence, in our opinion, is the inability to properly link the research results to already produced knowledge on the one hand and on the other to systematically compare cases from different historical and geopolitical settings. Notwithstanding certain difficulties that manifest in exploring the cultural part of international relations in the recent decades, the abundant and steadily growing collection of studies created after the fall of the Berlin Wall indicates that researchers are recognizing the importance and relevance of this topic along with its multifaceted potential. It is the potential that this research area offers for a broader and more nuanced understanding of the sphere of international affairs, along with capturing the complexities of the process of constructing a national culture and national cultural policy-making, that served as the primary motive for the preparation of this collection. Another very important aspect was that cultural phenomena have been on the margin in the research of the foreign policies of countries of Southeast Europe—including the countries that belonged to the Eastern Bloc—and have not been given much attention in discussions. Moreover, the presence of music in the conducting of international relations of the peoples and states of this part of Europe in modern history is almost completely neglected in existing publications. Encouraged by the growing interest in the examination of the role of music in the sphere of international affairs from the 17th century on, which has become evident in the last decade, and intrigued by the possibilities it brings for gaining new insights into cultural and musical phenomena both in the national and international context, we decided to gather scholars from different fields (history, musicology) from Southeast and Central Europe who are familiar with different historical periods. The intended focus was the era of nation-states, particularly from the 18th to 20th century, but above all after World War I. In geographical terms, we focused on the peoples and countries of Southeast Europe, particularly those that were part of former Yugoslavia, together with parts of Central Europe that belonged to the Eastern Bloc (Czechoslovakia). The main aim was not to give final and axiomatic answers to issues concerning the employment of music and musical activities in international relations in the given period and geopolitical settings, but to point to the diversity of interconnections between the spheres of music, culture, international relations and politics as well as their outcomes. Our starting point was the assumption that culture serves as one of the sources for international relations, and that its relevance is determined by the historical circumstances and dominant tendencies in the national and international settings (development of states' cultural sphere, their economic and political power, power relations on the international scene, etc.). Apart from that, it is also important to create a clear conceptual distinction between the more general contexts of the use of culture and music in the sphere of international affairs, where not only the state and its bodies but also non-state actors have a crucial contribution (international cultural relations) through formal and informal occasions, and the more specific contexts where the primary role is statecraft (cultural diplomacy). As a result, fourteen studies were prepared and divided into three sections. The first part, entitled "Diplomacy Behind the Scenes: Musicians' Contact With the Diplomatic Sphere" comprises of three chapters focusing on different phenomena—the intensive political and intellectual networking of a circle of 18th-century Croatian diplomats, composers and polymaths (Luka and Miho Sorkočević, Julije Bajamonti and Ruđer Bošković) with their European fellows and the resulting intercultural exchanges (Ivana Tomić Ferić); the influence of the political and diplomatic engagement of the Serbian Metropolitan in the Habsburg Monarchy, Josif Rajačić, in creating the project of Serbian national music (Vesna Peno and Goran Vasin); the particularities of the diplomatic career of one of the most notable 20th-century Serbian and Yugoslav music scholars, Petar Bingulac (Ratomir Milikić). Besides revealing previously less known or completely unknown facts, these studies indicate the relevance of considering different types of international contacts of individuals and groups in the process of establishing national (and regional) policies, as well as highlight the role of cultural and social capital in the activities of state diplomats. The second part, entitled "Reflections of Foreign Policies in National Music Spheres," contains six chapters dedicated to discussing how the established foreign policies of selected states, including interwar Yugoslavia and Bulgaria, and post-WWII Romania and Czechoslovakia, affected music production, distribution, consumption and research. Among other issues, attention was given to the power struggles between Great Britain and the Third Reich in the 1930s and the way they manifested in the musical life of Belgrade, at the time the capital of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia (Ranka Gašić); the influence of Yugoslavia's political alliance with France between the two world wars on the cultural and music production of some of the most prestigious artistic circles in Belgrade (Srđan Atanasovski); the Yugoslav–Bulgarian diplomatic disputes after the Great War over the territory and peoples of Vardar Macedonia and their impact on the research of the folk music of that region (Ivana Vesić), as well as the outcomes of rapprochement between the two countries after 1937 in the domain of cultural exchange (Stefanka Georgieva). Moreover, this section presents the different stages of foreign policy of Communist Romania from 1948 to 1989 and how they marked music production and distribution in this country along with the reception of foreign musical works (Florinela Popa); the effects of the political turn in Czechoslovakia in 1948 and its adherence to the policies of the Eastern Bloc on the transforming the dominant views on music aesthetics, poetics and national music production (Lenka Křupková). These chapters convincingly point to the significance of power relations in the international arena in the shaping of (national) cultural and music spheres, as well as the existence of a correlation between activities in the national and international settings, and the resulting necessity of simultaneously observing two different levels—national and international—due to their close intertwining. The third part, entitled "Music as a Means of Cultural Diplomacy," consists of five chapters offering a detailed insight into the strategies and programming of cultural cooperation and exchange of socialist Yugoslavia in different phases of its existence. Among other issues, the chapters explore how cultural and musical activities abroad followed the efforts of Yugoslav authorities to establish closer ties with certain countries, to promote Yugoslavia's achievements, values and ideology, and to counter negative representations. Apart from the in-depth scrutiny of Yugoslav foreign policy towards France (Aleksandra Kolaković) and Finland (Maja Vasiljević), where the general tendencies and turns were brought to light through the extent and prestige of the cultural and musical undertakings prepared, another very comprehensive and illuminative study is the examination of how international tours of professional folk dance ensembles were employed for the purpose of realizing the country's various political goals in the international framework (Ivan Hofman), as well as the study on the tours of popular bands and folk music performers (Julijana Papazova). The Yugoslav political shift in the late 1940s and its ramifications particularly in connection to exporting its musical products and accomplishments to the Western Bloc were also thoroughly examined (Biljana Milanović).

Eine nachhaltige Entwicklung bedeutet eine dauerhaft mögliche Entwicklung innerhalb des ökologischen Erdsystems. Durch das weltweite Bevölkerungswachstum, den ansteigenden Wohlstand und nicht-nachhaltige Lebensweisen drohen die ökologischen Belastungsgrenzen unsere Erde jedoch überschritten zu werden bzw. wurden teilweise bereits überschritten. Dies hat zur Folge, dass nachfolgende wie auch parallel existierende Generationen nicht die gleichen Möglichkeiten zur Erfüllung ihrer Bedürfnisse haben, wie die heute in den Industriestaaten lebenden. Die landwirtschaftliche Erzeugung trägt dabei einen bedeutenden Teil zu dieser Bedrohung und Überschreitung der planetaren Grenzen bei, denn insbesondere der hohe und weiter ansteigende Konsum von tierischen Produkten weltweit hat zahlreiche ökologisch, jedoch auch sozial und gesundheitlich nachteilige Folgen. Einer der grundlegenden problematischen Aspekte tierischer Produkte ist der hohe Energieverlust im Laufe des Veredlungsprozesses von pflanzlichen Futtermitteln zu Fleisch- und Milchprodukten. Die Folge sind große intensiv genutzte Landwirtschaftsflächen, die notwendig sind, um jene Futtermittel zu produzieren. Dies führt zu Biodiversitätsverlusten, Treibhausgasemissionen, Landraub und gesundheitlichen Problemen aufgrund des Pestizidgebrauchs. Weitere Konsequenzen eines hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte umfassen einen hohen Wasserbedarf, Flächenkonkurrenzen zwischen dem direkten Lebensmittel- und dem Futtermittelanbau, aber auch den ethisch bedenklichen Umgang mit Tieren sowie Gefahren für die menschliche Gesundheit, z. B. koronare Herzerkrankungen und Antibiotikaresistenzen. Begründet liegt dieser hohe und weiter wachsende Konsum tierischer Produkte in persönlichen, sozialen, ökonomischen und politischen sowie strukturellen Faktoren, wobei in vorliegender Arbeit auf den durch die westeuropäische Kultur geprägten Menschen fokussiert wird. Persönliche und soziale Hindernisse für einen reduzierten Konsum tierischer Lebensmittel liegen insbesondere in einem fehlenden Wissen, dem psychologischen Phänomen der kognitiven Dissonanz, mangelnder Achtsamkeit sowie dem Druck sozialer Normen. Wirtschaftspolitische und strukturelle Hindernisse umfassen eine wachstumsorientierte Ökonomie, fehlende Preisanreize für einen nachhaltigen Konsum sowie eine Infrastruktur, die den Konsum tierischer Produkte begünstigt. Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) als Teil des sog. Dritten Sektors, neben der Wirtschaft und der Politik, und als Vertreterinnen der Gesellschaft sind essentielle Akteurinnen in nationalen und internationalen Gestaltungsprozessen. Sie werden zumeist von der Gesellschaft oder zumindest Teilen der Gesellschaft unterstützt und können durch Öffentlichkeitsarbeit und andere Maßnahmen auf politische und ökonomische Protagonisten Druck ausüben. Somit sind NRO als potentielle Schnittstelle zwischen Gesellschaft, Politik und Wirtschaft vielversprechende Einrichtungen um den Konsum tierischer Produkte zu senken. Aufgrund der o. g. multidimensionalen Auswirkungen des hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte, haben insbesondere NRO, die die Ziele Umweltschutz, Ernährungssicherung, Tierschutz und Gesundheitsförderung verfolgen, potentiell Interesse an einer Reduktion des Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums. Studien über NRO in Schweden, Kanada und den USA weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass Umweltorganisationen sich in ihrer Arbeit für eine Begrenzung des Klimawandels nur in begrenztem Umfang für eine pflanzenbetonte Ernährungsweise einsetzen. Aufgrund der o. g. mehrdimensionalen Folgen eines hohen Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel weitet vorliegende Arbeit den Erhebungsumfang aus und umfasst die Untersuchung von deutschen Umwelt-, Welternährungs-, Gesundheits- und Tierschutzorganisationen in Hinblick auf deren Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums. Die Erhebung umfasst die Untersuchung von 34 der wichtigsten deutschen NRO mittels Material- und Internetseitenanalyse, vertiefende leitfadengestützte Expert*inneninterviews mit 24 NRO sowie eine Fokusgruppendiskussion zur Ergebniskontrolle, wobei das zentrale Element dabei die Expert*inneninterviews darstellen. Insgesamt entspricht der Forschungsprozess der Grounded Theory Methodologie (GTM), einem ergebnisoffenen, induktiven Vorgehen. Die Forschungsfragen umfassen neben der Analyse des aktuellen Umfangs des Einsatzes für eine pflanzenbetonte Ernährungsweise insbesondere die Einflussfaktoren auf diesen Umfang sowie die umgesetzten Handlungsstrategien für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel. Entsprechend der GTM steht am Ende des Forschungsprozesses vorliegender Arbeit ein Modell, das die Erkenntnisse in einer verdichteten Kernkategorie zusammenfasst. Als zentrales Ergebnis der Erhebung kann das 'Modell der abwägenden Bestandssicherung' gesehen werden. Es weist, in Übereinstimmung mit der Literatur, darauf hin, dass NRO als Teil der Gesellschaft von der Außenwelt abhängig sind, d. h. von ihren Mitgliedern und staatlichen wie privaten Geldgeber*innen, aber auch von parallel agierenden NRO, Medien und gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen. Dies kann unter der Überschrift der 'Einstellung relevanter Interessensgruppen' zur Thematik der tierischen Lebensmittel gefasst werden. Auf der anderen Seite steht die 'Einstellung der Mitarbeitenden' einer NRO, da die Themenaufnahme der Problematik eines hohen Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums auch davon abhängt, welche Bedeutung die Mitarbeitenden dieser Thematik zusprechen und inwiefern sie bereit sind sie in das Maßnahmenportfolio aufzunehmen. Wenn sowohl die Interessensgruppen als auch die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO der Themenaufnahme befürwortend gegenüber gestellt sind, so ist ein umfassender Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel von dieser NRO zu erwarten. Dies trifft in vorliegender Erhebung vorwiegend auf Tierschutzorganisationen und einige Umweltorganisationen zu. Der gegenteilige Fall einer fehlenden Thematisierung tierischer Produkte tritt ein, wenn weder relevante Interessensgruppen, noch die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO die Themenaufnahme befürworten oder als dringlich erachten. Dies kann insbesondere bei Welternährungs- und Gesundheitsorganisationen beobachtet werden. Wenn die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO die Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Lebensmittel befürworten, die relevanten Interessensgruppen jedoch ablehnend gegenüber derartigen Maßnahmen stehen, ist eine zurückhaltende Thematisierung zu erwarten, die sich auf Informationstexte bspw. auf den Internetseitenauftritten der NRO beschränkt. Dies ist v. a. bei Umwelt- und Welternährungsorganisationen erkennbar. Der vierte Fall, dass die Interessensgruppen einer NRO für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte eintreten würden, nicht jedoch die Mitarbeitenden der NRO, konnte in vorliegender Erhebung nur in Ansätzen bei Umweltorganisationen beobachtet werden. Der Hauptgrund, warum NRO, insbesondere Welternährungs- und Gesundheitsorganisationen, die Problematik des hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte nicht oder nur in geringem Umfang aufnehmen, liegt in der o. g. Abhängigkeit der NRO von öffentlichen Geldgeber*innen, wie auch von privaten Spender*innen und Mitgliedern ('Einstellung relevanter Interessensgruppen'). Weitere Faktoren umfassen bspw. die Arbeitsteilung wie auch den Wettbewerb zwischen NRO, insofern dass auf andere NRO verwiesen wird und Nischen für eigene Themen gesucht werden. Neben den Gründen für den Umfang der Thematisierung des hohen Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel wurden auch Strategien erfragt, die die NRO anwenden um denselben zu senken. Hierbei wurde insbesondere die Öffentlichkeitsarbeit in verschiedenen Ausrichtungen genannt und als sehr wirksam eingeschätzt. Vor allem emotional ausgerichtete, positiv formulierte, zielgruppenspezifische und anschaulich dargestellte Kampagnen können als effektiv eingeschätzt werden. Auch politische oder juristische Maßnahmen, wie Lobbyismus oder Verbandsklagen werden von den NRO durchgeführt, wobei die befragten NRO auf der bundespolitischen Ebene derzeit kaum Potential sehen Änderungen herbeizuführen; auf Regionen- oder Länderebene jedoch realistischere Einflussmöglichkeiten sehen. Als nächste Schritte für NRO im Sinne einer (verstärkten) Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Lebensmittel können folgende Maßnahmen geraten werden: • Eine Erhebung der Meinung von Mitgliedern und Spender*innen zu der o. g. Themenaufnahme in das Maßnahmenportfolio der jeweiligen NRO. Dies ist insbesondere bei NRO sinnvoll, die unsicher über die Reaktion ihrer Mitglieder und Spender*innen auf einen Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte sind. • Eine Prüfung von alternativen Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten, die eine Abhängigkeit von staatlichen Geldern verringern. Hierdurch würde der Bedeutung von NRO als Teil des Dritten Sektors neben Politik und Wirtschaft gerecht und die Einflussmöglichkeiten auf dieselben erhöht. • Eine vermehrte Kooperation zwischen NRO innerhalb einer Disziplin und zwischen Disziplinen, sodass bspw. im Rahmen eines Netzwerkes aufeinander verwiesen werden kann. Dies ermöglicht die Einhaltung der jeweiligen Organisationsphilosophien und Kernkompetenzen trotz Zusammenarbeit mit NRO, die andere Herangehensweisen an die Förderung einer pflanzenbetonten Ernährungsweise verfolgen. Zudem ermöglicht diese Netzwerkbildung eine erhöhte Wettbewerbsfähigkeit mit dem ökonomischen und politischen Sektor. • Die Anerkennung der Handlungsfähigkeit von NRO als Pionierinnen des Wandels. Als Dritter Sektor neben der Politik und Wirtschaft kommt NRO eine große Bedeutung in der Beeinflussung gesellschaftlicher Prozesse, insbesondere auf zwischenstaatlicher Ebene zu. Auch komplexe Themen und, angesichts der Überschreitung der planetaren Grenzen, dringliche weltumfassende Themen können von kleinen, regionalen NRO aufgegriffen werden. • Die Fortführung von bewährten Maßnahmen zur Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte, wie verschiedene Formen der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, kann als sinnvoll erachtet werden. Hinzu können neue Inhalte genommen werden, wie bspw. die Förderung eines achtsamen Konsumstils durch naturnahe Lernorte. Für eine Umsetzung wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse zu Verhaltensänderungen hinsichtlich nachhaltiger Konsumstile ist eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit Forschungseinrichtungen sinnvoll. Diese Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Gründe für eine Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Produkte durch NRO lassen sich evtl. auch auf andere Themen übertragen, die von NRO aufgegriffen werden können, wie bspw. die Kritik an Flugreisen. Zudem ist es denkbar, dass die auf Deutschland beschränkte Analyse auch auf weitere, insbesondere westlich geprägte Länder übertragen werden kann. ; Sustainable development facilitates a permanently pursuable development which is within the ecological earth system. Through the worldwide population growth, the increasing wealth and unsustainable lifestyles the ecological limits are about to be or are already exceeded, so that future generations as well as parallel living generations haven't got the same possibilities to meet their needs as those living in current developed nations. Agricultural production contributes a high share to this threat to and exceedance of planetary boundaries, as in particular the high and further increasing consumption of animal source products has numerous ecological but also social and health consequences. One of the basic problematic aspects of animal source products is the high energy loss during the processing from plant animal feed to meat and dairy products. As a result large intensively used agricultural areas are necessary to feed animals leading to biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, land grabbing and health problems due to pesticide usage. Furthermore, high water usage, competition between food and fodder, as well as inhumane treatment of animals, and threats to human health by e.g. coronary heart diseases and antibiotic resistance are consequences of a meat-rich diet. Reasons for this high and increasing animal product consumption include personal, social, economic and political as well as structural factors, whereby in the thesis at hand the focus lies on people which are shaped by a Western European culture. Personal and social barriers to a reduced consumption of animal source food mainly include a lack of knowledge, the psychological phenomenon of cognitive dissonance, a lack of consciousness as well as the pressure of social norms. Political and economic barriers comprise the growth-oriented economy, a lack of price incentives for a sustainable consumption as well as an infrastructure which facilitates the consumption of animal source products. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as part of the so called Third Sector, besides politics and economy, and representatives of the society are a vital player in national and international governance. They are mostly supported by the society or at least by parts of it and can put pressure on political and economical protagonists through public relations activities and other means. Thus, NGOs as potential interface between society, politics and economy are one promising player for reducing animal product consumption. Due to the above named multidimensional consequences of a high consumption of animal source products especially NGOs targeting to protect the environment, improve the world nutrition situation, care for animal ethics and enhance the health status are potentially interested to reduce the consumption of meat, dairy and eggs. However, according to previous studies in Sweden, Canada and the U.S., there is a limited degree of engagement in encouraging reduced meat consumption of environmental NGOs in light of climate change. Due to the multidimensional consequences of animal source products in the thesis at hand the coverage of analysis is extended and includes the investigation of German environmental, food security, health and animal welfare organizations regarding their commitment to a reduced consumption of animal products. Research consists of a material analysis of 34 NGOs, 24 expert interviews with NGO staff and a focus group discussion testing the preliminary results of the interviews, whereby the central element is the expert interviews. Overall the research process complies with the Grounded Theory Methodology (GTM), which is an inductive procedure without fixed expectations regarding the results. In particular, the research questions include, besides the analysis of the current scope of the commitment to a plant-based nutrition, the influencing factors on this scope as well as the kind of strategies of action for a reduced consumption of animal source products. In accordance to the GTM a new model has been developed as final result of the research process which summarizes the findings in a compact core category. As central result of the research the 'model of the weighing of existence-securing' can be presented. In compliance with previous literature it indicates that NGOs as part of the society are dependent on their environment, i. e. on their members as well as public and private funders, but also on parallel existing NGOs, the media and societal developments. This can be summarized under the headline 'attitude of relevant stakeholders' to the theme of animal source products. On the other side, the 'attitude of the staff' of a NGO can be named as influencing factor, as the thematisation of the problematic of the high animal product consumption is also dependent on the importance which is awarded to this topic by the staff members and in how far they are ready to include the topic in their portfolio of action. In case of the support of the topic by both the stakeholders and the staff members of a NGO, a comprehensive thematisation of the problematic of animal source products can be expected from the respective NGO. In the investigation at hand, this is mainly true for animal welfare and environmental organisations. The contradictory case of no thematisation occurs if neither relevant stakeholders nor the staff members of a NGO support the urgency and thematisation of the reduced animal product consumption. This case can be observed mainly for food security and health organisations. If staff members of a NGO are in favour of the thematisation of the problematic of animal source products, but the stakeholders reject such measures, a restrained thematisation can be expected, which is limited to information texts e. g. on the website of the respective NGO. This is mainly for some environmental and food security organization observable. The fourth case, in which stakeholders are in favour of the thematisation, but staff members aren't, is merely true for some environmental organisation in the analysis at hand. The main reason for a restrained plaid for a reduced consumption of animal source products, mainly by food security and environmental organisations, can be detected in the dependence on financial means from the government, donors and members ('attitude of relevant stakeholders'). But there are also factors like the division of responsibility and the competition between NGOs which impede an engagement in reducing animal product consumption, as NGOs refer to other NGOs or are search for own thematic niches. Besides the reasons for the scope of animal product thematisation by NGOs, strategies of the NGOs advocating a reduced animal product consumption has been analysed. These strategies include mainly public relations work in different variants, which is estimated by the NGOs to be highly effective. In particular emotionally created, positively formulated, target group specific and vividly presented campaigns can be rated as effective. In addition political and legal measures like lobbying or representative actions are named by the interviewed NGOs, whereby they don't see any potential for change on the federal level but on regional or provincial level. As next steps for NGOs according to the reduction of the consumption of animal source products, the following measures can be advised: • A survey about the opinions of the members and donators about the inclusion of the above named topic into to portfolio of measures. Particularly this is relevant for NGOs which are not sure about the reaction of their members and donators to their commitment to a reduced consumption of animal product consumption. An analysis of alternative possibilities of the origin of financial means, which minimize the dependence on public funds. Through this change of the origin of financial means NGOs would satisfy their meaning as part of the Third Sector besides politics and the economy and would increase their possibilities of influencing them. • An increased cooperation between NGOs of the same discipline as well as between different disciplines, so that they can e.g. refer to each other within a network. This enables NGOs to follow their respective organisational philosophy and core competences while at the same time allows cooperating with NGOs following a different approach to foster a plant-based way of nutrition. In addition, this creation of networks facilitates an increased competitiveness with the economic and political sector. • The acknowledgement of NGOs possibilities for action as agents of change. As part of the Third Sector besides politics and the economy, NGOs have a high importance in the influencing of social developments, especially on the interstate level. Complex topics as well as – due to the exceedance of planetary boundaries – urgent global topics can be thematised both by small, regional and large, international NGOs. • The continuation of proven measures aiming to reduce the consumption of animal source products, like different kinds of public relations work, is reasonable. In addition, new contents can be included, like e. g. the fostering of a conscious style of consumption through learning facilities close to nature. For an implementation of scientific findings about behaviour change regarding sustainable styles of consumption an improved cooperation of NGOs and research institutions is recommendable. These findings regarding the reasons for the thematisation of the problematic of animal source products through NGOs might be able to be transferred to other topics, which are thematised by NGOs, like e. g. the criticism on air travels. Furthermore, it is conceivable to transfer the findings about German NGOs to other countries, especially Western characterised countries.

Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova.  2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security.The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once.







1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.







3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.







In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.







A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.







And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "transitioning away from" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.







Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.







CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution

Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova.  2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security. The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once. 1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "leave behind" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers.DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution

Background. Today, an incidence and a mortality of incurable chronic diseases is increasing in the world, growing the relevance of Palliative and Hospice Care (PHC) systems and services creating and developing. The unfavorable medical and demographic situation in Ukraine requires a substantiation and implementation of an affordable, high-quality and effective PHC System that requires of health care providers of all levels involving, interagency and intersectoral coordination and cooperation in the PHC delivery. The purpose was to substantiate the optimal functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine. Materials and methods. Medical statistics, national and international scientific literature, results of sociological research were used in the work; methods of systematic and structural-functional analysis, medical cartography, biblio-semantic, statistical and sociological methods of research were applied in the work. Results. The optimum functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is substantiated, in particular the health care providers involved in specialized PHC providing and their tasks were defined. Conclusions. 1. A medical and social analysis of morbidity and mortality rates and medical and demographic data shows high mortality rate from malignant neoplasms and severe complications of chronic noncommunicable diseases, rapid aging of the population in Ukraine, which determine the high need of the population in PHC. This requires the substantiation and development of an accessible, high-quality and efficient PHC System based on innovative multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approaches, which requires the coordination of the work of institutions that subordinated to different ministries and departments, involvement in PHC providing and social care for palliative patients of health care providers of all levels and social care institutions. 2. A systematic analysis of the PHC worldwide experience in many countries around the world, the recommendations of WHO, the European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC) and other reputable international professional organizations, allows us to propose a three-levels model of PHC System in Ukraine: 1) Palliative care approach or primary PHC; 2) General palliative care; 3) Specialized PHC (hospice or end-of-life care). This was the basis of the developed of the PHC System delivery to the population in Ukraine concept. 3. It is grounded, developed and tested at the level of the innovative components of the functional and organizational model of specialized PHC that based on a patient-family-oriented paradigm, a multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approach at all levels of health care delivery that meets current international standards and norms, to integrate PHC into the Health Care System, the continuity of its delivery, and feedback through the involvement and cooperation of health care providers and social care institutions, public and charitable organizations, patients and their families. 4. The functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is a high-tech, highly professional component of the Healthcare System, which requires modern high-tech equipment and effective medicines, special professional training and continuous professional development and motivation of the staff, appropriate legal framework and, of course, proper financial and political support of the Government of Ukraine, regional and local authorities and the interest and support of the whole society. ; Актуальность. Сегодня в мире растет распространенность и смертность населения от инкурабельные хронических заболеваний, что увеличивает актуальность создания и развития систем и служб оказания паллиативной и хосписной помощи (ПХП) населению. Неблагоприятная медико-демографическая ситуация в Украине требует обоснования и внедрения системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, что требует привлечения к оказанию ПХП медицинских работников учреждений здравоохранения (УЗ) всех уровней медицинской помощи, межведомственной и межсекторальной координации и сотрудничества. Цель работы: обосновать оптимальную функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине. Материалы и методы. В работе были использованы данные медицинской статистики, национальная и международная научная литература, результаты социологического исследования; применены методы системного и структурно-функционального анализа, медицинской картографии, библиосемантический, статистический и социологический методы исследования. Результаты. Обоснована оптимальная функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине, в частности определены учреждения, которые привлекаются к оказанию специализированной ПХП, и их задачи. Выводы. 1. Медико-социальный анализ показателей заболеваемости, смертности и медико-демографических данных свидетельствует о высоком уровне смертности от злокачественных новообразований (ЗН) и тяжелых осложнений хронических неинфекционных заболеваний (ХНИЗ), быстрое постарение населения в Украине, определяющих высокую потребность населения в ПХП. Указанное требует создания и развития системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, основанной на инновационных мультидисциплинарных, межведомственных и межсекторальных подходах, что требует координации работы учреждений, подчиненных различным министерствам и ведомствам, привлечения к оказанию ПХП и социальной услуги по паллиативному уходу (СУПУ) медицинских работников УЗ всех уровней медицинской помощи и работников учреждений социальной защиты населения. 2. Системный анализ мирового опыта внедрения ПХП во многих странах мира, рекомендаций ВОЗ, Европейской Ассоциации паллиативной помощи (ЕАРС) и других авторитетных международных профессиональных организаций позволяет предложить внедрить в Украине трехуровневую модель системы оказания ПХП: 1) Паллиативный подход или первичная ПХП; 2) Общая паллиативная помощь; 3) Специализированная ПХП (хосписная помощь или «помощь в конце жизни» - «end of life care». Отмеченное выше было положено в основу разработанной концепции системы оказания ПХП населению в Украине. 3. Обоснована, разработана и апробирована на уровне отдельных инновационных составляющих функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП, основой которой является пациент-семья-ориентированная парадигма, мультидисциплинарный, межведомственный и межсекторальный подход на всех уровнях оказания медицинской помощи, которая соответствует современным международным стандартам и нормам. Это обеспечит интеграцию ПХП в систему здравоохранения, непрерывность и преемственность ее оказания и обратная связь путем привлечения и сотрудничества учреждений здравоохранения и учреждений социальной защиты населения, общественных и благотворительных организаций, пациентов и их семей. 4. Предложенная функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП представляет собой наукоемкую высокопрофессиональную составляющую здравоохранения, требует современного высокотехнологичного оборудования и эффективных лекарственных средств, специальной профессиональной подготовки, безпрерывого профессионального развития и мотивации кадров, соответствующей нормативно-правовой базы и, безусловно, надлежащего финансового обеспечения и политической поддержки Правительства Украины, региональных и местных органов власти, заинтересованности и поддержки всего общества. ; Актуальність. Сьогодні у світі зростає поширеність і смертність населення від інкурабельних хронічних захворювань, що збільшує актуальність створення і розвитку систем і служб надання паліативної і хоспісної допомоги (ПХД) населенню. Несприятлива медико-демографічна ситуація в Україні вимагає обґрунтування і впровадження системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, що потребує залучення до надання ПХД медичних працівників закладів охорони здоров'я (ЗОЗ) усіх рівнів медичної допомоги, міжвідомчої та міжсекторальної координації і співпраці. Мета роботи: обґрунтувати оптимальну функціонально-організаційну модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні. Матеріали та методи. У роботі були використані дані медичної статистики, національна та міжнародна наукова література, результати соціологічного дослідження; застосовані методи системного та структурно-функціонального аналізу, медичної картографії, бібліосемантичний, статистичний і соціологічний методи дослідження. Результати. Обґрунтована оптимальна функціонально-організаційна модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні, зокрема визначені заклади, що залучаються до надання спеціалізованої ПХД, та їх завдання. Висновки. 1. Медико-соціальний аналіз показників захворюваності і смертності та медико-демографічних даних свідчить про високий рівень смертності від злоякісних новоутворень (ЗН) і тяжких ускладнень хронічних неінфекційних захворювань (ХНІЗ), швидке постаріння населення в Україні, що визначають високу потребу населення у ПХД. Зазначене вимагає створення і розвитку системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, заснованої на інноваційних мультидисциплінарних, міжвідомчих та міжсекторальних підходах, що потребує координації роботи закладів, підпорядкованих різним міністерствам і відомствам, залучення до надання ПХД та соціальної послуги з паліативного догляду (СППД) медичних працівників ЗОЗ усіх рівнів медичної допомоги та працівників закладів соціального захисту населення. 2. Системний аналіз світового досвіду впровадження ПХД у багатьох країнах світу, рекомендацій ВООЗ, Європейської Асоціації паліативної допомоги (ЕАРС) та інших авторитетних міжнародних фахових організацій дозволяє пропонувати впроваджувати в Україні трирівневу модель системи надання ПХД: 1) Паліативний підхід або первинна ПХД; 2) Загальна паліативна допомога; 3) Спеціалізована ПХД (хоспісна допомога або «допомога наприкiнцi життя» – «end of life care». Зазначене було покладено в основу розробленої концепції системи надання ПХД населенню в Україні. 3. Обґрунтовано, розроблено та апробовано на рівні окремих інноваційних складових функціонально-організаційну модель спеціалізованої ПХД, основою якої є пацієнт-сім'я-орієнтована парадигма, мультидисциплінарний, міжвідомчий і міжсекторальний підхід на усіх рівнях надання медичної допомоги, що відповідає сучасним міжнародним стандартам і нормам. Це забезпечить інтеграцію ПХД в систему охорони здоров'я, безперервність та наступність її надання і зворотний зв'язок шляхом залучення і співпраці закладів охорони здоров'я і установ соціального захисту населення, громадських і благодійних організацій, пацієнтів і їх родин. 4. Запропонована функціонально-організаційна модель спеціалізованої ПХД являє собою наукоємну високопрофесійну складову охорони здоров'я, що потребує сучасного високотехнологічного обладнання та ефективних лікарських засобів, спеціальної професійної підготовки, безперервного професійного розвитку і мотивації кадрів, відповідної нормативно-правової бази і, безумовно, належного фінансового забезпечення і політичної підтримки Уряду України, регіональних і місцевих органів влади та зацікавленості і підтримки усього суспільства.

Background. Today, an incidence and a mortality of incurable chronic diseases is increasing in the world, growing the relevance of Palliative and Hospice Care (PHC) systems and services creating and developing. The unfavorable medical and demographic situation in Ukraine requires a substantiation and implementation of an affordable, high-quality and effective PHC System that requires of health care providers of all levels involving, interagency and intersectoral coordination and cooperation in the PHC delivery. The purpose was to substantiate the optimal functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine. Materials and methods. Medical statistics, national and international scientific literature, results of sociological research were used in the work; methods of systematic and structural-functional analysis, medical cartography, biblio-semantic, statistical and sociological methods of research were applied in the work. Results. The optimum functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is substantiated, in particular the health care providers involved in specialized PHC providing and their tasks were defined. Conclusions. 1. A medical and social analysis of morbidity and mortality rates and medical and demographic data shows high mortality rate from malignant neoplasms and severe complications of chronic noncommunicable diseases, rapid aging of the population in Ukraine, which determine the high need of the population in PHC. This requires the substantiation and development of an accessible, high-quality and efficient PHC System based on innovative multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approaches, which requires the coordination of the work of institutions that subordinated to different ministries and departments, involvement in PHC providing and social care for palliative patients of health care providers of all levels and social care institutions. 2. A systematic analysis of the PHC worldwide experience in many countries around the world, the recommendations of WHO, the European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC) and other reputable international professional organizations, allows us to propose a three-levels model of PHC System in Ukraine: 1) Palliative care approach or primary PHC; 2) General palliative care; 3) Specialized PHC (hospice or end-of-life care). This was the basis of the developed of the PHC System delivery to the population in Ukraine concept. 3. It is grounded, developed and tested at the level of the innovative components of the functional and organizational model of specialized PHC that based on a patient-family-oriented paradigm, a multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approach at all levels of health care delivery that meets current international standards and norms, to integrate PHC into the Health Care System, the continuity of its delivery, and feedback through the involvement and cooperation of health care providers and social care institutions, public and charitable organizations, patients and their families. 4. The functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is a high-tech, highly professional component of the Healthcare System, which requires modern high-tech equipment and effective medicines, special professional training and continuous professional development and motivation of the staff, appropriate legal framework and, of course, proper financial and political support of the Government of Ukraine, regional and local authorities and the interest and support of the whole society. ; Актуальность. Сегодня в мире растет распространенность и смертность населения от инкурабельные хронических заболеваний, что увеличивает актуальность создания и развития систем и служб оказания паллиативной и хосписной помощи (ПХП) населению. Неблагоприятная медико-демографическая ситуация в Украине требует обоснования и внедрения системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, что требует привлечения к оказанию ПХП медицинских работников учреждений здравоохранения (УЗ) всех уровней медицинской помощи, межведомственной и межсекторальной координации и сотрудничества. Цель работы: обосновать оптимальную функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине. Материалы и методы. В работе были использованы данные медицинской статистики, национальная и международная научная литература, результаты социологического исследования; применены методы системного и структурно-функционального анализа, медицинской картографии, библиосемантический, статистический и социологический методы исследования. Результаты. Обоснована оптимальная функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине, в частности определены учреждения, которые привлекаются к оказанию специализированной ПХП, и их задачи. Выводы. 1. Медико-социальный анализ показателей заболеваемости, смертности и медико-демографических данных свидетельствует о высоком уровне смертности от злокачественных новообразований (ЗН) и тяжелых осложнений хронических неинфекционных заболеваний (ХНИЗ), быстрое постарение населения в Украине, определяющих высокую потребность населения в ПХП. Указанное требует создания и развития системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, основанной на инновационных мультидисциплинарных, межведомственных и межсекторальных подходах, что требует координации работы учреждений, подчиненных различным министерствам и ведомствам, привлечения к оказанию ПХП и социальной услуги по паллиативному уходу (СУПУ) медицинских работников УЗ всех уровней медицинской помощи и работников учреждений социальной защиты населения. 2. Системный анализ мирового опыта внедрения ПХП во многих странах мира, рекомендаций ВОЗ, Европейской Ассоциации паллиативной помощи (ЕАРС) и других авторитетных международных профессиональных организаций позволяет предложить внедрить в Украине трехуровневую модель системы оказания ПХП: 1) Паллиативный подход или первичная ПХП; 2) Общая паллиативная помощь; 3) Специализированная ПХП (хосписная помощь или «помощь в конце жизни» - «end of life care». Отмеченное выше было положено в основу разработанной концепции системы оказания ПХП населению в Украине. 3. Обоснована, разработана и апробирована на уровне отдельных инновационных составляющих функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП, основой которой является пациент-семья-ориентированная парадигма, мультидисциплинарный, межведомственный и межсекторальный подход на всех уровнях оказания медицинской помощи, которая соответствует современным международным стандартам и нормам. Это обеспечит интеграцию ПХП в систему здравоохранения, непрерывность и преемственность ее оказания и обратная связь путем привлечения и сотрудничества учреждений здравоохранения и учреждений социальной защиты населения, общественных и благотворительных организаций, пациентов и их семей. 4. Предложенная функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП представляет собой наукоемкую высокопрофессиональную составляющую здравоохранения, требует современного высокотехнологичного оборудования и эффективных лекарственных средств, специальной профессиональной подготовки, безпрерывого профессионального развития и мотивации кадров, соответствующей нормативно-правовой базы и, безусловно, надлежащего финансового обеспечения и политической поддержки Правительства Украины, региональных и местных органов власти, заинтересованности и поддержки всего общества. ; Актуальність. Сьогодні у світі зростає поширеність і смертність населення від інкурабельних хронічних захворювань, що збільшує актуальність створення і розвитку систем і служб надання паліативної і хоспісної допомоги (ПХД) населенню. Несприятлива медико-демографічна ситуація в Україні вимагає обґрунтування і впровадження системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, що потребує залучення до надання ПХД медичних працівників закладів охорони здоров'я (ЗОЗ) усіх рівнів медичної допомоги, міжвідомчої та міжсекторальної координації і співпраці. Мета роботи: обґрунтувати оптимальну функціонально-організаційну модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні. Матеріали та методи. У роботі були використані дані медичної статистики, національна та міжнародна наукова література, результати соціологічного дослідження; застосовані методи системного та структурно-функціонального аналізу, медичної картографії, бібліосемантичний, статистичний і соціологічний методи дослідження. Результати. Обґрунтована оптимальна функціонально-організаційна модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні, зокрема визначені заклади, що залучаються до надання спеціалізованої ПХД, та їх завдання. Висновки. 1. Медико-соціальний аналіз показників захворюваності і смертності та медико-демографічних даних свідчить про високий рівень смертності від злоякісних новоутворень (ЗН) і тяжких ускладнень хронічних неінфекційних захворювань (ХНІЗ), швидке постаріння населення в Україні, що визначають високу потребу населення у ПХД. Зазначене вимагає створення і розвитку системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, заснованої на інноваційних мультидисциплінарних, міжвідомчих та міжсекторальних підходах, що потребує координації роботи закладів, підпорядкованих різним міністерствам і відомствам, залучення до надання ПХД та соціальної послуги з паліативного догляду (СППД) медичних працівників ЗОЗ усіх рівнів медичної допомоги та працівників закладів соціального захисту населення. 2. Системний аналіз світового досвіду впровадження ПХД у багатьох країнах світу, рекомендацій ВООЗ, Європейської Асоціації паліативної допомоги (ЕАРС) та інших авторитетних міжнародних фахових організацій дозволяє пропонувати впроваджувати в Україні трирівневу модель системи надання ПХД: 1) Паліативний підхід або первинна ПХД; 2) Загальна паліативна допомога; 3) Спеціалізована ПХД (хоспісна допомога або «допомога наприкiнцi життя» – «end of life care». Зазначене було покладено в основу розробленої концепції системи надання ПХД населенню в Україні. 3. Обґрунтовано, розроблено та апробовано на рівні окремих інноваційних складових функціонально-організаційну модель спеціалізованої ПХД, основою якої є пацієнт-сім'я-орієнтована парадигма, мультидисциплінарний, міжвідомчий і міжсекторальний підхід на усіх рівнях надання медичної допомоги, що відповідає сучасним міжнародним стандартам і нормам. Це забезпечить інтеграцію ПХД в систему охорони здоров'я, безперервність та наступність її надання і зворотний зв'язок шляхом залучення і співпраці закладів охорони здоров'я і установ соціального захисту населення, громадських і благодійних організацій, пацієнтів і їх родин. 4. Запропонована функціонально-організаційна модель спеціалізованої ПХД являє собою наукоємну високопрофесійну складову охорони здоров'я, що потребує сучасного високотехнологічного обладнання та ефективних лікарських засобів, спеціальної професійної підготовки, безперервного професійного розвитку і мотивації кадрів, відповідної нормативно-правової бази і, безумовно, належного фінансового забезпечення і політичної підтримки Уряду України, регіональних і місцевих органів влади та зацікавленості і підтримки усього суспільства.

Background. Today, an incidence and a mortality of incurable chronic diseases is increasing in the world, growing the relevance of Palliative and Hospice Care (PHC) systems and services creating and developing. The unfavorable medical and demographic situation in Ukraine requires a substantiation and implementation of an affordable, high-quality and effective PHC System that requires of health care providers of all levels involving, interagency and intersectoral coordination and cooperation in the PHC delivery. The purpose was to substantiate the optimal functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine. Materials and methods. Medical statistics, national and international scientific literature, results of sociological research were used in the work; methods of systematic and structural-functional analysis, medical cartography, biblio-semantic, statistical and sociological methods of research were applied in the work. Results. The optimum functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is substantiated, in particular the health care providers involved in specialized PHC providing and their tasks were defined. Conclusions. 1. A medical and social analysis of morbidity and mortality rates and medical and demographic data shows high mortality rate from malignant neoplasms and severe complications of chronic noncommunicable diseases, rapid aging of the population in Ukraine, which determine the high need of the population in PHC. This requires the substantiation and development of an accessible, high-quality and efficient PHC System based on innovative multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approaches, which requires the coordination of the work of institutions that subordinated to different ministries and departments, involvement in PHC providing and social care for palliative patients of health care providers of all levels and social care institutions. 2. A systematic analysis of the PHC worldwide experience in many countries around the world, the recommendations of WHO, the European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC) and other reputable international professional organizations, allows us to propose a three-levels model of PHC System in Ukraine: 1) Palliative care approach or primary PHC; 2) General palliative care; 3) Specialized PHC (hospice or end-of-life care). This was the basis of the developed of the PHC System delivery to the population in Ukraine concept. 3. It is grounded, developed and tested at the level of the innovative components of the functional and organizational model of specialized PHC that based on a patient-family-oriented paradigm, a multidisciplinary, interagency and intersectoral approach at all levels of health care delivery that meets current international standards and norms, to integrate PHC into the Health Care System, the continuity of its delivery, and feedback through the involvement and cooperation of health care providers and social care institutions, public and charitable organizations, patients and their families. 4. The functional and organizational model of specialized PHC providing to the population in Ukraine is a high-tech, highly professional component of the Healthcare System, which requires modern high-tech equipment and effective medicines, special professional training and continuous professional development and motivation of the staff, appropriate legal framework and, of course, proper financial and political support of the Government of Ukraine, regional and local authorities and the interest and support of the whole society. ; Актуальность. Сегодня в мире растет распространенность и смертность населения от инкурабельные хронических заболеваний, что увеличивает актуальность создания и развития систем и служб оказания паллиативной и хосписной помощи (ПХП) населению. Неблагоприятная медико-демографическая ситуация в Украине требует обоснования и внедрения системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, что требует привлечения к оказанию ПХП медицинских работников учреждений здравоохранения (УЗ) всех уровней медицинской помощи, межведомственной и межсекторальной координации и сотрудничества. Цель работы: обосновать оптимальную функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине. Материалы и методы. В работе были использованы данные медицинской статистики, национальная и международная научная литература, результаты социологического исследования; применены методы системного и структурно-функционального анализа, медицинской картографии, библиосемантический, статистический и социологический методы исследования. Результаты. Обоснована оптимальная функционально-организационная модель оказания специализированной ПХП населению в Украине, в частности определены учреждения, которые привлекаются к оказанию специализированной ПХП, и их задачи. Выводы. 1. Медико-социальный анализ показателей заболеваемости, смертности и медико-демографических данных свидетельствует о высоком уровне смертности от злокачественных новообразований (ЗН) и тяжелых осложнений хронических неинфекционных заболеваний (ХНИЗ), быстрое постарение населения в Украине, определяющих высокую потребность населения в ПХП. Указанное требует создания и развития системы доступной, качественной и эффективной ПХП, основанной на инновационных мультидисциплинарных, межведомственных и межсекторальных подходах, что требует координации работы учреждений, подчиненных различным министерствам и ведомствам, привлечения к оказанию ПХП и социальной услуги по паллиативному уходу (СУПУ) медицинских работников УЗ всех уровней медицинской помощи и работников учреждений социальной защиты населения. 2. Системный анализ мирового опыта внедрения ПХП во многих странах мира, рекомендаций ВОЗ, Европейской Ассоциации паллиативной помощи (ЕАРС) и других авторитетных международных профессиональных организаций позволяет предложить внедрить в Украине трехуровневую модель системы оказания ПХП: 1) Паллиативный подход или первичная ПХП; 2) Общая паллиативная помощь; 3) Специализированная ПХП (хосписная помощь или «помощь в конце жизни» - «end of life care». Отмеченное выше было положено в основу разработанной концепции системы оказания ПХП населению в Украине. 3. Обоснована, разработана и апробирована на уровне отдельных инновационных составляющих функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП, основой которой является пациент-семья-ориентированная парадигма, мультидисциплинарный, межведомственный и межсекторальный подход на всех уровнях оказания медицинской помощи, которая соответствует современным международным стандартам и нормам. Это обеспечит интеграцию ПХП в систему здравоохранения, непрерывность и преемственность ее оказания и обратная связь путем привлечения и сотрудничества учреждений здравоохранения и учреждений социальной защиты населения, общественных и благотворительных организаций, пациентов и их семей. 4. Предложенная функционально-организационная модель специализированной ПХП представляет собой наукоемкую высокопрофессиональную составляющую здравоохранения, требует современного высокотехнологичного оборудования и эффективных лекарственных средств, специальной профессиональной подготовки, безпрерывого профессионального развития и мотивации кадров, соответствующей нормативно-правовой базы и, безусловно, надлежащего финансового обеспечения и политической поддержки Правительства Украины, региональных и местных органов власти, заинтересованности и поддержки всего общества. ; Актуальність. Сьогодні у світі зростає поширеність і смертність населення від інкурабельних хронічних захворювань, що збільшує актуальність створення і розвитку систем і служб надання паліативної і хоспісної допомоги (ПХД) населенню. Несприятлива медико-демографічна ситуація в Україні вимагає обґрунтування і впровадження системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, що потребує залучення до надання ПХД медичних працівників закладів охорони здоров'я (ЗОЗ) усіх рівнів медичної допомоги, міжвідомчої та міжсекторальної координації і співпраці. Мета роботи: обґрунтувати оптимальну функціонально-організаційну модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні. Матеріали та методи. У роботі були використані дані медичної статистики, національна та міжнародна наукова література, результати соціологічного дослідження; застосовані методи системного та структурно-функціонального аналізу, медичної картографії, бібліосемантичний, статистичний і соціологічний методи дослідження. Результати. Обґрунтована оптимальна функціонально-організаційна модель надання спеціалізованої ПХД населенню в Україні, зокрема визначені заклади, що залучаються до надання спеціалізованої ПХД, та їх завдання. Висновки. 1. Медико-соціальний аналіз показників захворюваності і смертності та медико-демографічних даних свідчить про високий рівень смертності від злоякісних новоутворень (ЗН) і тяжких ускладнень хронічних неінфекційних захворювань (ХНІЗ), швидке постаріння населення в Україні, що визначають високу потребу населення у ПХД. Зазначене вимагає створення і розвитку системи доступної, якісної і ефективної ПХД, заснованої на інноваційних мультидисциплінарних, міжвідомчих та міжсекторальних підходах, що потребує координації роботи закладів, підпорядкованих різним міністерствам і відомствам, залучення до надання ПХД та соціальної послуги з паліативного догляду (СППД) медичних працівників ЗОЗ усіх рівнів медичної допомоги та працівників закладів соціального захисту населення. 2. Системний аналіз світового досвіду впровадження ПХД у багатьох країнах світу, рекомендацій ВООЗ, Європейської Асоціації паліативної допомоги (ЕАРС) та інших авторитетних міжнародних фахових організацій дозволяє пропонувати впроваджувати в Україні трирівневу модель системи надання ПХД: 1) Паліативний підхід або первинна ПХД; 2) Загальна паліативна допомога; 3) Спеціалізована ПХД (хоспісна допомога або «допомога наприкiнцi життя» – «end of life care». Зазначене було покладено в основу розробленої концепції системи надання ПХД населенню в Україні. 3. Обґрунтовано, розроблено та апробовано на рівні окремих інноваційних складових функціонально-організаційну модель спеціалізованої ПХД, основою якої є пацієнт-сім'я-орієнтована парадигма, мультидисциплінарний, міжвідомчий і міжсекторальний підхід на усіх рівнях надання медичної допомоги, що відповідає сучасним міжнародним стандартам і нормам. Це забезпечить інтеграцію ПХД в систему охорони здоров'я, безперервність та наступність її надання і зворотний зв'язок шляхом залучення і співпраці закладів охорони здоров'я і установ соціального захисту населення, громадських і благодійних організацій, пацієнтів і їх родин. 4. Запропонована функціонально-організаційна модель спеціалізованої ПХД являє собою наукоємну високопрофесійну складову охорони здоров'я, що потребує сучасного високотехнологічного обладнання та ефективних лікарських засобів, спеціальної професійної підготовки, безперервного професійного розвитку і мотивації кадрів, відповідної нормативно-правової бази і, безумовно, належного фінансового забезпечення і політичної підтримки Уряду України, регіональних і місцевих органів влади та зацікавленості і підтримки усього суспільства.