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Localisation : Centre de documentation P. Bartoli, UMR LAMETA, Montpellier (S WPL 2011-01) ; Safeguarding tropical rainforests is one of the most important challenges for the future, particularly to mitigate climate change. The international community has actively sought international policy solutions to curb deforestation in tropical countries. Debt-for-nature swaps and certification of sustainable forest management have been implemented by NGOs. Some states are currently negotiating the implementation of the REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) mechanism, a North-South financial transfer to compensate countries for avoided deforestation. However, little is known about the efficiency of these instruments. We argue that they may have a double effect: an expected direct impact on deforestation linked to the conditionalities of instruments, and an indirect impact due to their feedback effects on macroeconomic variables, affecting in turn the drivers of deforestation. The second effect is often overlooked by policy makers. The objective of the paper is to disentangle the two effects for different categories of forest countries. We conducted a panel data analysis for the period 1990-2005 and show that cluster analysis of tropical forest countries would be more relevant if it were based on relative forest endowment. On the basis of econometric results, we can recommend differentiating policy instruments according to the relative forest abundance of each country. Debt reduction programs contribute to the reduction of deforestation in all countries. Countries with abundant forests are locked in a development pathway based on overexploitation of their forests making them less responsive to incentive measures. In countries with average forest endowment, we recommend output-based REDD, whereas in countries with low forest cover, either inputbased or output-based REDD mechanisms should be efficient.

The natural endowment of the Democrat Republic of Congo, in the form of land, minerals, and forests, is unparalleled. The right mix of policies has the potential to unleash incentives that could transform the economy. However, transport infrastructure in the DRC is amongst the sparsest and most dilapidated in the world, and this lack of infrastructure is likely a significant constraint to growth. This work considerably advances the information that is available to infrastructure planners, and provides methodologies that could be used to make more informed decisions to identify trade-offs between economic growth and environmental endangerment. The approach draws from the state-of the art across a variety of disciplines – spatial (GIS) analysis, spatial econometrics, economic theory, and conservation biology – to create an approach that can guide the location and level of investments by estimating benefits and environmental costs at a highly disaggregated spatial scale. The analysis proceeds in four related phases that combine economic assessments with geospatial analysis. First transport costs are estimated using GIS techniques. A variety of econometric procedures are then used to determine the economic effects of changing transport costs. Second, highly disaggregated spatial data is used to estimate the effects of roads on forest cover, and the resulting biodiversity that would be at risk from local deforestation. Next the two spatial estimates are combined to simulate the effects of different policies. Finally this provides a series of maps that identify regions where there are large trade-offs between economic and ecological goals. Overall the results suggests that the siting of infrastructure needs to consider impacts at the very outset of the planning process. This report presents both new data and new techniques that can be used to identify areas of opportunity, risk, and potential for REDD+ financing. Such upstream planning has been rendered both feasible and cost effective with the availability of geo-referenced information on forest cover and economic data. This report provides the data and easily comprehensible maps for such an exercise.

Introduction : A historic survey of macroeconometric models in Japan / Shinichi Ichimura -- ch. 1. Factors for rapid growth of the Japanese economy : A social accounting approach / Shinichi Ichimura -- ch. 2. Social accounting analysis of Japan's lost 90s / Hyun Suk -- ch. 3. Business indexes and survey data for forecast / Yuji Shimanaka and Tatsushi Shikano -- ch. 4. Factor proportions and foreign trade : The case of Japan / Masahiro Tatemoto and Shinichi Ichimura -- ch. 5. Interregional interdependence and regional economic growth in Japan / Takahiro Akita -- ch. 6. The flying-geese pattern of East Asian development : A computable general equilibrium approach / Mitsuo Ezaki and Shoichi Ito -- ch. 7. A flow-of-funds analysis of quantitative monetary policy / Kazusuke Tsujimura and Masako Tsujimura -- ch. 8. An econometric model of Japanese economic growth, 1878-1937 / Lawrence R. Klein -- ch. 9. An econometric model of Japan, 1930-1959 / Lawrence R. Klein and Yoichi Shinkai -- ch. 10. Osaka ISER model. I. An outline of the model / Lawrence R. Klein and Shinichi Ichimura. II. Detailed discussion of the model / Shinichi Ichimura, Lawrence R. Klein, Susumu Koizumi and Kazuo Sato. III. Dynamic properties of the model / Shinichi Ichimura and Lawrence R. Klein -- ch. 11. The Japan model for World Project LINK / Kanemi Ban -- ch. 12. The Saito model of the Japanese economy / Mitsuo Saito -- ch. 13. High frequency model vs. consensus forecast / Yoshihisa Inada -- ch. 14. Policy alternatives for Japan toward 2020 / Shuntaro Shishido, Akira Kawakami and Kiyoshi Tamashiro.

The first cases of the COVID-19 disease in Mexico came from abroad in February 2020. Communitarian propagation accelerated the infection in the big metropolitan areas of Mexico, such as Valle de México Metropolitan Zone (VMMZ), were located the biggest people concentration in the country. In this study, we evaluate the spatial distribution of the positive cases and deaths in VMMZ at municipality level through a spatial econometric model that include socio demographic and economic variables, besides we explore the active cases in Ciudad de México at neighborhood level. We found significant spatial effects, most notably in positive cases, that could help to explain the stage of the disease, in both levels municipality and neighborhood. The model shed light to observe how the COVID19 hits harder at the municipalities more densely populated and where the urbanization process was deeper, compared with those peripheral, nevertheless, worst living conditions also exhibit a positive relationship, in both positive cases and deaths.

In this paper, we build on data on officials of the Federal Reserve System, oral history repositories, and hitherto underresearched archival sources to unpack the tortuous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed's decision-making process and the spread of new macroeconomic theories and econometric techniques. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors' Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who did not hold a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the type of economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision-making process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economic analysis.

Die vorliegende Dissertationsschrift beschäftigt sich mit dem räumlichen Einkaufsverhalten im Einzelhandel im Zusammenhang mit Einzelhandelsagglomerationen; genauer gesagt werden nachfrageseitige positive Agglomerationseffekte im Einzelhandel untersucht, d.h. Urbanisierungs- und Lokalisierungsvorteile, die auf dem Kundenverhalten basieren. Ausgehend von sehr heterogenen theoretischen Arbeiten v.a. aus dem Bereich der Raumwirtschaftstheorien, der Mikroökonomie und der verhaltenswissenschaftlichen Marketing-Forschung werden die verschiedenen Einkaufsstrategien abgeleitet, die in einer kundenseitigen Bevorzugung von agglomerierten Angebotsstandorten resultieren. Neben den bereits in älteren Raumwirtschaftstheorien behandelten Kopplungskäufen sind dies vor allem verschiedene Typen von Vergleichskäufen, die sich auf (mitunter strategische) Agglomerationen eigentlich konkurrierender Einzelhandelsanbieter beziehen. Die gebildeten Hypothesen zur (positiven) Wirkung von Einzelhandelsagglomerationen bzw. der räumlichen Konzentration mit andersartigen bzw. eigentlich konkurrierenden Anbietern werden anhand des ökonometrischen MCI-Modells (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model) überprüft. Auf diesem Wege wird zugleich ein Marktgebietsmodell auf der Basis des häufig angewendeten Huff-Modells formuliert, mit dem es möglich ist, Kundenströme unter Berücksichtigung von Agglomerationseffekten zu schätzen. Die Modellparametrisierung erfolgt anhand der realen Marktgebiete von Lebensmittelmärkten sowie Elektronik- und Baumärkten, die anhand einer Haushaltsbefragung ermittelt wurden. Insgesamt zeigen die Analyseergebnisse in den meisten Fällen, dass die Einkaufsstättenwahl bzw. der lokale Marktanteil einzelner Anbieter positiv vom vorhandenen Potenzial für Kopplungs- und Vergleichskäufe beeinflusst wird. Die Untersuchung zeigt die Relevanz von Agglomerationseffekten im Einzelhandel auf, wobei ein Modell formuliert wird, mit dem es möglich ist, diese Effekte zu analysieren. Konkrete Anwendungen hierfür finden sich in der betrieblichen Standortanalyse und insbesondere in der raumordnerischen und städtebaulichen Verträglichkeitsbeurteilung von Einzelhandelsansiedlungen. ; This thesis deals with spatial shopping behavior in relation to retail agglomerations, more precisely the aim is to identify demand-side agglomeration economies (urbanization economies, localization economies) in retail. The work is founded on a range of heterogeneous theoretical approaches, especially from spatial economic theory, microeconomics and marketing. Based on these theories, one can identify the main shopping strategies which lead to prefer retail agglomerations with a special supply configuration instead of sole outlets or other types of agglomerations; these strategies are different types of multi-purpose shopping (MPS) and comparison shopping (CS). To test the hypotheses of a positive effect of spatial concentration on store choice and market share, a market area model based on the Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model (MCI) is developed and estimated using real data on shopping behavior collected from a household survey. The econometric model is also transferable into the well-known Huff model used for calculating spatial customer and purchasing power flows. All in all, the model results show mostly a positive impact of the MPS and CS potential on the consumer's decisions and the market shares of the outlets. The study demonstrates the relevance of urbanization and localization economies in the retail sector and presents a model to address these effects, e.g. in location analysis and spatial planning.

This study comparatively examined the efficiency of pig production among government-assisted and non-assisted farmers in Lagos State, Southwest, Nigeria. The study was based on primary data obtained in a cross-section survey of 120 pig farmers, 60 each drawn purposively from among the government-assisted (GAPF) and unassisted pig farmers (UAPF) in the state. The data were analysed by descriptive, budgetary and econometric (Stochastic Production Frontier) methods. The study revealed that, most of the pig farmers (67.7% of GAPF and 95.0% of UAPF) are men. Majority of the pig farmers (65.0% of GAPF and 55.0% of UAPF) are within 30 - 50 years age bracket; with as much as 83.3% of GAPF and 60.0% of UAPF, having no more than six years of experience in pig farming. However, most (95.0% of GAPF and 75.0% of UAPF) of the pig farmers had some tertiary education. Budgetary analysis revealed that an average GAPF incurred a total cost of N987,682 in producing N1,360,050 worth of pigs with a net farm income of N372,368 yielding 33.67% rate of returns on their investment during the 2008/2009 production season. His UAPF counterpart incurred a total cost of N727,860 in producing N938,000 worth of pigs with a net farm income of N210,140 yielding 31.73% rate of returns on during the same production season. The technical, allocative and overall economic efficiency estimates computed based on estimated Stochastic Production and Conditional Revenue Frontier models of the two categories of pig farmers revealed that GAPF are generally more efficient (with mean technical, allocative and overall economic efficiency index of 0.66, 0.68 and 0.48, respectively) than their UAPF counterparts (with mean technical, allocative and overall economic efficiency index of 0.53, 0.60 and 0.35, respectively). The differences in the production efficiency of the two categories of farms were found to be as a result of the institutional and infrastructural support received by GAPF which is not available to the UAPF.

Intro -- Contents -- Introduction -- References -- Microeconomic Modelling: Risk Management, Adaptation Measures and Stakeholders' Perception -- 1 Crop Production Functions and Efficiency Models: Climate Change and Water Adaptation Policy Over Competitiveness and Social Disparities of Crop Production in the Mediterranean -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 The Stochastic Frontier Production Function -- 1.3 Decomposition of the Gini Coefficient -- 1.4 Case Study: Ebro Basin in Spain -- 1.5 Discussion and Conclusions -- References -- 2 Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Current Use of Species Distribution Models -- 2.3 Species Distribution Models: Maximum Entropy Models -- 2.4 Potential Changes of Cocoa and Coffee Plantation Zones in Latin America -- 2.5 A Word of Caution -- 2.6 Summary -- References -- 3 The Effects of Climate Change on Poverty and Income Distribution: A Case Study for Rural Mexico -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Methods -- 3.3 Data -- 3.4 Results -- 3.4.1 Econometric Estimation -- 3.4.2 Simulations -- 3.5 Conclusions and Final Remarks -- References -- 4 The Value of Meteorological Information in Agrarian Producers' Decision Making: Introducing Analytic Decision Models -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Calculating the Value of Information -- 4.2.1 Cost-Loss Ratio Situation Model. Static Case -- 4.2.2 Cost-Loss Ratio Situation Model. Dynamic Case -- 4.3 Conclusions and Discussion -- References -- 5 Participatory Process: Approaches for Assessing Farmer Behavior Towards Adopting Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Approaches Assessing Farmer Choices at Individual or Farm Scale -- 5.2.1 Data Collection Methods -- 5.2.2 Data Analysis Methods -- 5.2.3 Limitations.

This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover

Intro -- Contents -- 1 - An Overview of the Issue -- 2 - Globalization and Labor: The View from Main Street to Mainstream -- 3 - Some Simple Models of Trade and Unemployment -- 4 - Some Empirics -- 5 - Policy Analysis -- References -- The Authors -- Index -- About the Institute.

Diese Dissertation untersucht den Einfluss von geophysikalischen, agrarökologischen und sozioökonomischen Bestimmungsfaktoren auf Veränderungen der Landnutzung während der letzten 25 Jahre in zwei Distrikten der Provinz Dak Lak im Zentralen Hochland Vietnams. Aufbauend auf der Analyse dieser Bestimmungsfaktoren werden die Wirkungen verschiedener politischer Maßnahmen ländlicher Entwicklung auf änderungen der Landbedeckung bewertet. Landsat Satellitenbilder aus den gleichen Anbauperioden der Jahre 1975, 1992 und 2000 werden interpretiert, um Veränderungen der Landbedeckung während dieser Zeitspanne herauszuarbeiten. Primärdaten wurden anhand einer Umfrage in zufällig ausgewählten Dörfern erhoben und erlauben die überprüfung der Einflüsse sozioökonomischer Variablen und Politikindikatoren auf Landnutzungsveränderungen anhand aufgestellter Hypothesen. Verwendete Sekundärdaten über Niederschlag, Bodeneignung und Topographie stammen von meteorologischen Messstationen, einer digitalen Bodenkarte und einem digitalen Höhenmodell. Alle Daten sind in georeferenzierter Form in einem Geographischen Informationssystem gespeichert. Die Daten aus der Dorfumfrage werden mit räumlich expliziten Rasterdaten auf Basis von Dorfeinzugsgebieten verbunden. Diese Dorfeinzugsgebiete basieren auf der Höhe der geschätzten Transportkosten von jeder Rasterzelle in der Forschungsregion zur geographischen Position des nächstgelegenen Dorfes. Ein multinomiales Logitmodell in reduzierter Form wird geschätzt, um den Einfluss der bestimmenden Faktoren auf die Flächennutzung herauszuarbeiten und die Wahrscheinlichkeiten zu berechnen, die eine bestimmte Zelle hat, in eine der fünf Landabdeckungskategorien während einer der zwei Perioden zu fallen.Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die erste Periode von 1975 bis 1992 durch landintensive landwirtschaftliche Expansion und die Umwandlung von Waldflächen in Grasund Ackerland gekennzeichnet ist. Während der zweiten Periode seit 1992 wurden das hohe, mehr arbeits- und kapitalintensive Wachstum im landwirtschaftlichen Sektor durch die Einführung von Düngemitteln, den verbesserten Zugang zu Strassen und Märkten sowie durch die Expansion bewässerter Flächen ermöglicht. Diese Politikstrategien, zusammen mit der Ausweisung weiterer geschützter Waldflächen und Anreizen zur Eindämmung des Wanderfeldbaus während der zweiten Periode, verringerten den Druck auf die Waldflächen bei gleichzeitiger Erhöhung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität und der Einkommen für eine wachsende Bevölkerung. Der Waldbestand erhöhte sich in der zweiten Periode hauptsächlich auf Flächen, die früher für Wanderfeldbau verwendet wurden.Politiksimulationen werden modelliert, um Einblicke in die Auswirkungen möglicher Politikinterventionen auf die Flächennutzung zu erhalten. Die Landbedeckung wird für die Simulationen in drei Kategorien aggregiert. Eine Stichprobe von Zellen wird dergestalt ausgewählt, dass die Analyse auf änderungen konzentriert werden kann, die durch anthropogene Eingriffe verursacht wurden. So wird erreicht, dass die simulierten Flächennutzungsänderungen innerhalb bereits genutzter Gebiete und angrenzender Zonen analysiert werden, in welchen der überwiegende Teil der Flächennutzungsänderungen liegt, die für politische Entscheidungsträger relevant sind. Ausserdem werden die Simulationen auf die zweite Periode von 1992 bis 2000 begrenzt, da dies die relevante Periode für mögliche Politikmaßnahmen ist. Die vier Politikszenarien sollen mögliche Auswirkungen politischer Interventionen auf landwirtschaftliche Nutzflächen in der Forschungsregion simulieren. Simulationen werden durchgeführt für reduzierte und höhere Investitionen in die Bewässerungsinfrastruktur, für mehr Flächen unter Waldschutz und für eine Kombination hoher Investitionen in Bewässerungsinfrastruktur zusammen mit erhöhtem Waldschutz, eine häufig erwähnte win-win Politik. Räumlich explizite Simulationen von Politikeingriffen ermöglichen räumlich explizite Ergebnisse, welche die politischen Entscheidungsträger befähigen können, politische Richtlinien für ländliche Regionalentwicklung mit einer besseren räumlichen Zielorientierung zu formulieren und umzusetzen. Die Ergebnisse der Simulationen zeigen begrenzte Flächennutzungsänderungen in allen vier Szenarien. Eine visuelle Interpretation der erwarteten änderungen ermöglicht die Identifizierung vermeintlicher hot-spots, an denen Flächenänderungen geschehen können. Weiterhin läßt eine ex-ante Bewertung der Auswirkungen des jeweiligen Politikeingriffes Rückschlüsse auf die Höhe möglicher Flächennutzungsänderungen zu. ; This dissertation investigates the role of geophysical, agroecological, and socioeconomic determinants of land-use change during the last 25 years in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. The analysis of these determinants allows to assess the influences of various rural development policies on land-cover changes. Landsat satellite images from the same cropping period of the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land-cover change between the two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio-economic and policy variables hypothesized to influence land-use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography were obtained from meteorological stations, from a digital soil map and a digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using GIS software. Survey data is merged with spatially explicit raster data using accessibility catchments, which are designed to a! pproximate village areas based on the estimated travel costs from each cell to the village location. A reduced-form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesized determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land-cover classes during either of the two periods under consideration.Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterized by land-intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labor- and capital-intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertilizer, improved access to rural roads and markets, and the expansion of irrigated areas. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.Policy simulations mimic the influences from potential policy interventions on land use. Land-cover categories for the policy simulations are aggregated to three classes and a spatial sample is drawn to concentrate the analysis on changes influenced by anthropogenic interventions. In that way, the focus of the simulations is on land-use changes within already cultivated areas and at the agricultural frontier where most land-use changes relevant for policy makers take place. The simulations are limited to the second period from 1992 to 2000 as this is the relevant period for potential policy measures.The four rural policy scenarios are carried out for low and high levels of investments in irrigation facilities, for an enlarged area under forest protection and for a combination of high investments in irrigation combined with increased forest protection, an often mentioned first-best policy option. Spatially explicit simulations of these policy interventions facilitate spatially explicit results, which can enable decision makers to formulate and implement geographically targeted rural development interventions. Simulation results suggest modest land-use changes in the expected directions under the four scenarios. A visual assessment of the location of the expected changes enables the identification of probable hotspots of land-cover conversions and allows for an ex-ante evaluation of the impacts of proposed policy interventions on the magnitude of land-use change.

AbstractSustainability is a process that characterizes in a broad sense a nation's ecological performance and may display a time-varying pattern. Such dynamic trajectories may vary among different countries and prompt not only intriguing questions on space–time convergence but also on the possibility of club convergence. The scope of this study is to investigate the long-run convergence pattern of 137 countries, as presented by their sustainable development index (SDI) over the period 1990–2019. The statistical–econometric analysis used to identify convergence across (groups of) countries is based on the advanced Phillips and Sul (JAE 24:1153–1185, 2009; ECTA 75:1771–1855, 2007) method. The empirical findings from our study allow us to identify two SDI convergence clubs of countries. The first and the biggest club includes mainly the developing African and Asian countries; whereas, the second club includes many OECD countries including inter alia the US, Canada, and Australia. Our analysis brings to light that the transition paths of these two clubs show a significant divergence pattern; this a-symmetry calls also into question the effectiveness of global green policies, such as the clean development mechanism as foreseen in the Kyoto protocol.

AbstractThe question of whether welfare benefits imprison recipients in unemployment traps has been at the centre of academic and political debates in recent decades. Empirical evidence at the micro level supports the existence of work disincentive effects of welfare benefits, although of a small magnitude. However, the question of whether this translates into lower aggregate employment remains unsettled. This study innovates the existing literature by providing an estimation of the impact of the monetary component of the Italian minimum income scheme (MIS) on the employment rate. Isolating this impact from the spurious pro‐work effects of the Active Labour Market Policies embedded in every contemporary MIS is possible because in the Italian case, in the first quarters of implementation of the policy, the activation side was not operating. We adopt a difference‐in‐differences method and find that the impact of the monetary component of the Italian MIS on the employment rate is not statistically significant. The finding is robust to different treatment definitions, different specification models and weighted and unweighted econometric analysis. We then carry out a heterogeneous analysis and find that the impact, despite being indistinguishable from zero on average, is significant and negative for provinces with weak labour demand.

This article addresses the issue of the cause-and-effect relationship between democracy and economic growth in Moldova from 1990 to 2020. This problem is one of the key topics of modern economic political science, but the results concerning the influence of the political system on economy are still ambiguous. No research has been conducted to date on this issue for Moldova. The econometric analysis was conducted using tree composite indexes of democracy, published by Freedom house, Polity V and V-Dem Varieties of Democracy. The causal impact between democracy indexes and per capita GDP growth is tested using Granger causality analysis. The results show that the choice of the democracy indicator and the time interval influences the modeling outcome. All three democracy indices depict different democratic trends at the country level. Although there is a positive causal link between the Polity index and GDP per capita in a short period, other results show no evidence that democratic reforms did contribute to economic growth in Moldova and vice versa. We conclude that democratization in conditions of weak law and political instability contributed to the emergency of a so-called hybrid democracy in Moldova.