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Liberals claim that countries avoid conflict in order not to disrupt economically beneficial exchange. The statement that economic integration reduces the likelihood of conflict is largely based on the effects of trade. A similar rationale can be applied to economic interdependence in the form of international capital exchange. A state is expected to avoid political risk, especially severe forms such as militarized disputes, in order not to deter investors. This study tests, on the dyadic and monadic levels of analyses, whether the liberal peace proposition holds when economic integration is operationalized as foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks, inflows, and outflows. The results for the years 1980—2000 indicate that inflows and stock of foreign investment reduce the risk of an outbreak of a fatal dispute, regardless of whether they are tested in a single equation or a simultaneous equation model. Thus, reverse causality does not bias the pacifying effect of foreign investment inflows and stock. The results also support the underlying notion of the commercial peace that militarized conflicts inhibit foreign investment. The onset of a fatal conflict reduces FDI inflows, and, if tested in a two-stage instrumental variable approach, FDI stock, the most complete measure of economic integration through foreign investment. Accounting for endogeneity seems particularly important when analyzing the link between the onset of fatal disputes and the outflow of FDI.

Poster Division: Social & Behavioral Sciences: 1st Place (The Ohio State University Edward F. Hayes Graduate Research Forum) ; A five-year embargo was granted for this item.

This book examines how new empirical approaches to mediation can shed fresh light on the effectiveness of different patterns of conflict management, and offers guidelines on the process of international mediation.

Escalation processes are found in many types of international conflict. However, a great deal of the theoretical and empirical literature on escalation is context specific and concentrates on explaining the outcomes of an escalation process. This approach has generated numerous insights; however, our understanding of escalation processes, in general, remains partial and incomplete. In this article, the author develops a two-sided incomplete information model to identify the kinds of escalation strategies states are likely to adopt in conflict. The model produces several hypotheses, one of which is tested empirically in the context of militarized interstate disputes. The hypothesis states that as the disparity between the players' cost tolerances increases, the lower cost tolerant actor is more likely to escalate to the maximum of his or her ability on the first move in the conflict. The results of the test confirm the theory's expectations of an inverse relationship between cost tolerance and an actor's escalation behavior. The article concludes by noting implications for future research on escalation processes.

The authors develop a social psychological model, the attributional consistency model, in order to describe the attributions individuals make to explain the activity of groups. The model is then used to suggest how policy makers determine the causes of the action taken by nations in conflict. As an empirical test of the theory, observations on the Middle East conflict made by those who were associated in one of several ways with either Israel or the Arab nations were examined. An argument detailing the value of the model in studying the dynamics of international conflict is also presented.

The question of the protection of victims of non-international conflicts was one item on the agenda of the XXth International Conference of the Red Cross at Vienna in 1965 which adopted a Resolution, No. XXXI, urging the ICRC to continue its work with the aim of strengthening Red Cross humanitarian, assistance to such victims. The same Resolution recommended governments of States parties to the Geneva Conventions and National Societies to support these efforts in their respective countries.

This paper outlines a program of needed research on principled nonviolence as a conflict and conflict resolution strategy in international relations. A multi‐pronged program of research is proposed, including, conceptual analyses and model generation, hypothesis and variable development: psychological analyses, laboratory simulation, and analyses of current ongoing, international conflict situations.