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The initial scenes of the hagiographic cycle of St. Demetrius on the north wall of the naos of the eponymous church in the complex of the Patriarchate of Peć, created in 1322-24, thanks to the atelier of the Greek painter Ioannes, are followed by frescoes painted during the restoration of 1619/20 by Georgije Mitrofanović, one of the most talented painters of his time. The episodes with Saint Nestor who kills the gladiator Lyaeus in a duel and the martyrdom of Saint Demetrius, preserved legends, have a source in the texts of the Passions of Saint Demetrius. They are separated from the other scenes by red separation frames and belong entirely to the painting from a later period. Certain formal elements reinforce the previously expressed opinion that Mitrofanović used older paintings as a model, although certain changes could have been made. The composition St. Nestor Kills Lyaeus exhibits several peculiarities. Compared to other scenes from the hagiographic cycle, this theme is presented in several iconographic variations, used at the same time. Scholars have expressed an opinion that there are two traditions in portraying the young Christian Nestor who kills the pagan gladiator Lyaeus. The scene with Lyaeus pierced by a spear is considered to be the older iconography, and the younger one, created in the art of the Palaeologus, shows the gladiator killed by throwing him on the mangana. As previously unknown monuments have been published in the meantime, it is possible to suggest a somewhat different typology. Moreover, the presentation of the emperor, as one of the protagonists of the event, must be taken into account in the analysis. Chronologically, the representation of the already ended battle is older, with Nestor over Lyaeus's body, regardless of whether the gladiator is killed by a spear (the miniature in Theodore Psalter from 1066) or by a spear and on the mangana, while the emperor is watching the spectacle behind the parapet of the lodge (the fresco in the church in Mistras from 1270-85 and on the reliquary from Vatopedi, from the 14th century). In the later version, Lyaeus is lying on the mangana (the damaged fresco in the church of Our Lady of Ljeviš in Prizren from 1309-1313, in Kosovo and Metohija, and in the church of Marko's Monastery from 1376/77, the Republic of North Macedonia), and the emperor is sitting in an open lodge, alone or accompanied by soldiers and guards. In the miniature of the Menologion of Despot Demetrius Palaiologos (1330-1335), the gladiator is pierced by mangana, but due to the uniqueness of the iconographic solution, it is possible that it presents a special artistic tradition. The extensive damage done to the frescoes in the churches in Kitti (1286) and in Thalames (the end of the 13th century or around 1300) makes the identification of this theme uncertain. The younger and much rarer is the illustration of the moment before Lyaeus falls on the mangana (the fresco in the Visoki Dečani Monastery, Kosovo and Metohija, from around 1337-47/48 and silver tiles from London, 14th century). The fight takes place on a high platform, at the foot of which there are deadly blades, while the bust of the emperor can be seen in a high lodge. A special variant is represented by the scene on silver tiles from London (14th century), which differs from the Dečani fresco by a sword buried in the gladiator's chest, while the ruling couple is situated in the high lodge. The ruling couple is painted on an icon from Sofia (14th century), but the composition with the duel is lost. On the fresco in the Peć cycle a part of the motif originates from the older tradition, but it has the most similarities with later iconographies in the treatment of Lyaeus (the fresco in Dečani and on London tiles), and the appearance of the high arena with mangana at the foot (the frescoes in Dečani and in Marko's Monastery, as well as on London tiles). There are no analogies in the preserved scenes for the movement of Nestor, who is holding a long spear with both hands, thrusting it into the body of the enemy, and the broken weapon in Lyaeus's hand. The same goes for a three-story wooden arena. Although this iconography may be the intervention of Mitrofanović himself, it is more likely that it was created by copying an older fresco by a previous artist - yet it must be emphasized that Maximian's representation in the lodge with the suite was copied from the scene of Demetrius before Maximian - supported by Ioannes's inventiveness shown in painting a church in the Patriarchate of Peć. The Martyrdom of St. Demetrius marks the end of a frieze of scenes on the north wall of the naos. When considering the iconography of this theme, in addition to hagiographic cycles, independent depictions must also be taken into account, most often created as illustrations of the martyrdom of saints in menologion for the date of October 26. According to the accepted opinion for the development of the martyrdom of St. Demetrius, it is believed that the original model with the saint raising his hands in prayer while standing replaced the sitting type, with a transitional variant with hands in prayer, and then with a raised right hand. At the beginning of the 14th century, a new form appeared with the introduction of the representations of the saint's servant Lupus and the angel bringing the martyr's crown to Demetrius. However, the views expressed must be reconsidered. There is no doubt that the oldest known iconography depicting a standing figure of the saint (the miniature in the Menologion of Basil II, from around 1000), which was used later with some alterations (the miniature in the cycle of the church calendar in the Menologion from Oxford and the Vatopedi reliquary). The iconography with Demetrius sitting with his right hand raised high appeared earlier than stated by scholars. It is witnessed on a Sinai icon depicting a menologion from the second half of the 11th century. The damage to the frescoes in the Peloponnesian churches in Kitti and in Thalames makes it impossible to iconographical analysis the scene of martyrdom. Preserved examples show that there was a parallel type with Demetrius sitting in two versions, raising his right hand or in a prayer gesture (the fresco in the church in Mistras and the miniature from Demetrius's life cycle in Menologion in Oxford), or high above his head (the fresco in the Church of Our Lady Ljeviška and as a part of the menologion on the frescoes in the church in Stari Nagoričin from 1315-1317/18, the Republic of North Macedonia; in the narthexes in the church of the Dečani Monastery and the Vlach monastery in Cozia, from around 1391; also on the icon from Sofia and on the money of John V Palaiologos, between 1365-1376). The developed type, with the figures of Lupus and angels, is illustrated in the Thessaloniki Church of the Holy Apostles around 1314, and then on the frescoes (in the church of the Gračanica Monastery in Kosovo and Metohija as a part of the menologion 1318-21 and in the Dečani church as a part of the hagiographic cycle of a saint; also, the remains of the fresco in the parecclesion of St. Demetrius in the monastery Xenophontos on Athos, a second-third quarter of the 14th century) and an icon (from the monastery Great Lavra on Athos, the end of the 14th and early 15th century). Other elements of iconography, such as the number of soldiers carrying out the emperor's order, which is thought to increase over time, are treated more freely. The building in the background is interpreted as the saint's basilica in Thessaloniki or the chamber of the public bath, where the event took place. In fact, it is a generally accepted way of marking the area where the martyrdom occurred, in this case copied from an older scene in which St. Demetrius blesses St. Nestor in prison. It can be concluded that the iconographic types did not substitute one another, yet were used simultaneously, although in the final phase of development the sitting type prevailed. The solution found in Peć was well-known in late Byzantine art from where it was taken over by the ateliers of post-Byzantine painters. That Ioannes used the same pattern we see on the wall of the church in Peć today is indirectly evidenced by the illustration of the same theme, created as a part of the menologion in the narthex of the Patriarchate of Peć complex in 1565. These artists often used the frescoes they encountered as inspiration for their own pictures which is most probably the case with this scene, as well, copied from the original composition from the Church of St. Demetrius in Peć.

Something interesting is happening in the United Kingdom. Some government officials there are pushing for the Bank of England to adopt an NGDP target. From the Independent:

Officials in the UK Treasury are "probably" considering whether to change the Bank of England's inflation-targeting mandate due to the massive economic shock imparted by the coronavirus crisis, according to a former minister.

 Lord Jim O'Neill, who was commercial secretary to the Treasury in 2015, wants the central bank to shift from its current target of keeping inflation at 2 per cent to targeting a steadily rising trend of nominal UK GDP growth instead.

Since the U.K. Treasury determines the monetary policy target for the Bank of England, these rumblings are more than noise. The U.K. Treasury's increased interest in an NGDP target is driven, in part, by the efforts of Jim O'Neil. He has written articles, done interviews, and made a forceful case for this approach to monetary policy. Another prominent voice is Sajid Javid who was recently the Chancellor of the Exchequer. He also has called for NGDP targeting in a new study. They are not alone, as other members of Parliament also talking about an NGDP target and several UK think tanks are promoting it as well. There seems to be, in short, some real momentum for NGDP targeting in the Boris Johnson government.



If the Bank of England were to get an NGDP target, it would be the first central bank to explicitly do so. The Bank of England was an early adopter of inflation targeting, so it would be fitting for it also to be an early adopter of NGDP targeting. Moreover, moving to this monetary policy framework should not be too hard for the British central bank since it already does something that looks a lot like an NGDP target.



Still, this would be seen as a big change for the central bank and many observers are unsettled by its prospects. Again, from the Independent: 

Lord O'Neill conceded that the idea of moving to nominal GDP targeting would  "scare" many people in the Treasury and the Bank who regard the current inflation-targeting regime as a proven success.

To those observers who are worried, I would encourage you to check out my paper from late last year that summarizes the facts and fears of NGDP targeting. It was written with the Fed in mind, but its lessons are applicable to any central bank. Here, I want to make three points that are specifically directed toward the Bank of England adopting an NGDP target.   



Changes in Potential Real GDP: Much Ado About Nothing

My first point is that changes in potential real GDP should not be a practical concern if the Bank of England were to adopt an NGDP target. Changes to potential real GDP is a common objection to NGDP targeting and in principle a legitimate concern. In practice, however, the magnitudes involved make this a moot concern. 



To illustrate this point, imagine that the Bank of England had been credibly targeting NGDP at 4% a year since the mid-1960s. Also assume that the potential real GDP (y*) evolved as it actually did over this period. The difference between this imagined NGDP target and the actual growth rate of y*, would be the counterfactual trend inflation experienced during this time. The figure below shows the outcome. It reveals that trend inflation in the UK would have ranged from about 1% to 3%. The average inflation rate over the whole period would have been just under 2%. Not a lot to see here. Even if we tweaked the NGDP target up a bit, there would still no runaway inflation. Instead, we end up in a world with longrun inflation well-anchored and a stable growth path for nominal income. 







Now to the extent that changes in potential real GDP do matter, it actually favors NGDP targeting over flexible inflation targeting (FIT). Josh Hendrickson and I show this outcome in a JMCB paper (ungated version) last year. The punchline is that a central bank doing FIT needs to know both potential real GDP (y*) and real GDP (y) in realtime to avoid making mistakes. A central bank doing NGDP targeting does not need to know y* or y in realtime. In fact, it intentionally remains agnostic about them over the shortrun and simply aims to stabilize nominal income. As a result, it is less likely to accidentally make matters worse. This is not just a theoretical argument. Athanasios Orphanides, for example, shows that one reason for the Fed's tepid response to rising inflation in the in the 1970s was bad realtime data on the output gap. In more recent times, one see the Fed's talking up of rate hikes in the fist half of 2008 or the ECB's outright tightening of policy in 2008 and 2011 as manifestations of this problem. 



Concerns about changes in potential real GDP, then, are much ado about nothing under an NGDP target and only meaningfully matter for a FIT. 



NGDP Targeting Would Not Be a Radical Change 

My second point is that the Bank of England adopting an NGDP target would not be a radical change. For it is already producing outcomes that closely mimic an NGDP target. This can be seen in the figure below.



This chart shows that prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the Bank of England had grown NGDP about 4% a year along a stable path. This is exactly what an NGDP level target would look like. Interestingly, former Governor Mark Carney actually wanted the Bank of England to follow an NGDP target when he first arrived. The idea was quickly shot down, but nonetheless he got the outcome he was calling for back in 2012. It is almost as if the Bank of England had a stealth NGDP target under his stewardship. 





Prior to the Great Recession, NGDP was also on a relatively stable path, though during this time it was growing closer to 5%. This too looks similar to an NGDP level target. Both of these NGDP targeting-like experiences, however, end in a sustained trend path drop that is not made up. In other words, the Bank of England's implicit NGDP target is actually a version of a growth rate target rather than a level target. And that is where the recent calls for an NGDP level target are different from what the central bank has been doing.



The Real Change Would Be an Explicit Make-Up Policy

My final point is that the real change being called for is the adoption of a level target. That is, the goal is to move the Bank of England from an implicit NGDP growth rate target to an explicit NGDP level target. This would require the central bank to make up for past misses from its target. Put differently, an NGDP level target would empower the central bank to temporarily run the economy hot until NGDP got back up to its trend growth path. In the case of the United Kingdom, that means growing NGDP faster than the trend 4% growth rate. This faster-than-normal catch-up growth is sometimes called 'make-up' policy and is illustrated below: 







What an NGDP Level Target Might Look Like in the United Kingdom

If the UK Treasury were to announce an NGDP level target for the Bank of England, it could be as simple as restoring NGDP to its trend growth path that existed under Mark Carney. That is, temporarily run NGDP hot to make up for shortfalls below its trend path that occurred during the COVID-19 crisis. After that, simply grow NGDP at 4%. As seen in the first figure, a 4% level target would probably be fine given likely changes in potential real GDP in the United Kingdom. More complicated versions of an NGDP level target are possible, but I would start simple.



In closing, it is worth noting that NGDP targeting is not a new idea. It was highly talked about in the 1980s, but gave way to inflation targeting in the 1990s. The United Kingdom's adoption of an NGDP level target would simply put monetary policy in advanced economies back on its original journey. Bon voyage to the Bank of England!



Related Links

The Financial Stability Case for NGDP Targeting

NGDP Targeting in the United Kingdom - Scott Sumner

Peter Stella joined me on the podcast this week. He was back by popular demand and we touched on two important and related questions: how should the government finance its relief efforts and who should ultimately manage the public debt? The U.S. Treasury may seem like the obvious answer to both questions, but it is not the whole story. The Federal Reserve can also finance the relief efforts and, in so doing, affect the structure of public debt. But is this a good thing? Peter Stella says no, at least in the longrun. He makes the case that it is economically and politically cheaper to return the financing and management of the public debt back to the U.S. Treasury once the COVID-19 recession is over. In other words, the Fed's expansion of its balance sheet, an understandable response to the crisis, needs to be unwound as the economy improves. Otherwise, we might end up with two government agencies with very different objectives trying to manage the public debt. This is an interesting argument and one I want to flesh out in this post by taking a closer look at the two questions of financing the budget deficits and managing the public debt.Financing the Budget DeficitsThe first issue is financing the budget deficit. The question here is whether the government should fund the deficit through (1) overnight debt with a variable interest rate or (2) long-term debt with a fixed interest rate. The former option is what happens when Federal Reserve liabilities--the monetary base--finance the deficit, while the latter option arises when it is funded by treasury securities. The Fed financing of deficits, in other words, is not risk free. It could lead to higher financing costs as the economy recovers. In such a scenario, financing with long-term treasury securities with fixed interest rates would be ultimately cheaper. But is this even possible in the current crisis with the Fed buying up so much public debt? That is, even if Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin issued more long-term treasury bonds, the Fed's asset purchases have been so large they would effectively convert most of the long-term bonds into overnight reserves. That, in fact, is what has happened over the past three months. The chart above shows that for  March, April, and May, the Fed purchased about $1.67 trillion of treasury securities compared to $2.31 in new issuance. The Fed, in other words, bought up about 72 percent of the treasury securities supplied during this time.Not only was the Fed buying up most of the new issuance, but it was buying up treasury securities with a maturity far longer than overnight reserves. This can be seen in the chart below. The Fed, then, has been acting as the final financier for most of the deficit during the COVID-19 crisis and, in so doing, has transformed the structure of $1.67 trillion of U.S. public debt into overnight government liabilities.  Managing the Public DebtSo are we stuck with these short-term government liabilities forever? As Peter Stella explained in the show, the answer is no. The U.S. government could convert those overnight reserves back into longer-term treasury securities once the crisis is over.  To illustrate how, imagine that by the end of 2020 the Fed has bought up $2 trillion in treasury securities. The purchase of these treasuries were used to indirectly fund the cash transfers to households, the PPP program, extended unemployment benefits, and other economic relief efforts. The figure below shows this development in terms of the respective balance sheets of the Treasury and Fed. The treasury securities are liabilities for the U.S. Treasury and assets for the Fed and vice-versa for Fed-issued reserves. The Treasury takes the reserves on its balance sheet and sends them to the private sector as part of the economic relief efforts.If we now combine the Treasury and Fed balance sheets into a consolidated government account and also look at the private sector balance sheet, we see the following two t-accounts: The net government liabilities are now $2 trillion in overnight reserves which are assets on the private sector's balance sheet. Again, during a crisis this is not a surprising outcome as the Fed rapidly expands its balance sheet. But left unchanged, it would imply rising interest rate costs once the economy starts recovering and the Fed is forced to raised the IOER to keep inflation in check.To avoid this problem, Peter Stella recommends that after the crisis the Treasury issues additional long-term treasury bonds that lock in low interest rates. Selling these treasuries to the private sector means taking reserves off their balance sheets. The Treasury, in other words, is swapping long-term treasury securities for the overnight Fed liabilities. This is what the consolidated balance sheet would like after this activity: Peter Stella outlines this process more thoroughly in his paper titled "Exiting Well". Again, this would not happen right away, but after the crisis has ended. Historically, the Fed has financed about 20 percent of the consolidated public debt (CPD) based on data back through 1945. I define CPD as the sum of marketable treasury securities not held by the Fed and the monetary base. Using data from the Financial Accounts of the United States, I constructed the chart below that shows the share of CPD attributable to the Fed and the U.S. Treasury. Unsurprisingly, the Fed's share of CPD during the Great Inflation rose to an average of almost 30 percent and hit almost 40 percent in 1974. During the Great Moderation it fell to about 14 percent. As of May, the Fed's share of CPD is approximately 24 percent, just above the historical average. The reason it is not higher is because of large budget deficits coming into the crisis. If 'exiting well' means returning to the historical average, it might occur naturally with regular budget deficits after the crisis. If 'exiting well' means returning to something closer to the Great Moderation levels, then this will be a more ambitious project and require a vast reduction in the stock of reserves.Other ConsiderationsThe argument so far for reducing the Fed's management of the public debt is that it is likely to be economically cheaper. As noted by folks like George Selgin, Charles Plosser, Paul Tucker, and others, a second argument is that it is also politically cheaper for the Fed to avoid playing the role of public debt manager. The management of U.S. public debt is normally under the purview of the U.S. Treasury because this process is inherently politically and therefore overseen by representatives of the taxpayers. The Fed can avoid these political entanglements by minimizing its influence on public debt management. This, of course, requires a smaller Fed balance sheet.

A post-crisis journey to a smaller balance sheet, however, faces two big roadblocks. First, the Fed has chosen an 'ample reserve' or floor operating system. This keeps the stock of excess reserves large in normal times and therefore keeps elevated the Fed's influence over public debt management. A number of post-2008 bank regulations also has increased the demand for bank reserves. Some of these regulations have been tweaked in the crisis, but both they and the Fed's floor system would have to be reconsidered if we wanted to return to a world of scarce reserves and less political entanglement for the Fed. Finally, it is worth noting that maintaining large central bank balance sheets do not guarantee robust growth. The charts below show the 2009-2019 averages of central bank balance sheets sizes against several measures of nominal economic activity. They, ironically, show bigger balance sheets are tied to slower nominal growth. Now, it could be the case that the countries with the weakest nominal growth responded with the most aggressive use of the LSAP programs. This is probably true, but the data span an entire decade so one would expect to see inflation, domestic demand, and credit growth respond to the use of LSAPs over this long of a period if QE worked as advertised. If nothing else, these figures should give us pause in considering the benefits of maintaining large central bank balance sheets over long periods. Further analysis of this data supports this interpretation. So between the higher financing cost for the public debt, the greater political entanglement for the Fed, and the unclear benefits from maintaining a large central bank balance sheet over a long period, we should take seriously Peter Stella's suggestions for 'exiting well' once the crisis is over. Here's hoping we do.

The monetary policy program at the Mercatus Center recently released a new measure called the NGDP gap. We created it as an alternative way to gauge the stance of monetary policy and have provided a website that will update the measure as new data become available. In this post, I will briefly summarize the NGDP Gap and then highlight a few extensions that some readers may find useful. 

Summary of the NGDP Gap 

As mentioned above, the NGDP Gap provides a cross check on the stance of monetary policy. Its use does not require the Fed to adopt a NGDP target, but it does draw upon the fact that NGDP is comprised of both real GDP and the price level and therefore captures both elements of the Fed's dual mandate. Moreover, since NGDP is a nominal variable it can be shaped by the Fed over the medium to long run. 



The basic idea behind this measure is to construct a benchmark growth path for nominal GDP (NGDP) where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Deviations of actual NGDP from this neutral level of NGDP provide a way to assess the stance of monetary policy. These deviations, in percent form, are called the NGDP gap. 



The NGDP gap can also be called the nominal income gap since NGDP equals NGDI. In fact, the construction of the neutral level of NGDP can be most easily understood from a nominal income perspective. To see this, consider that people make many economic decisions based on forecasts of their nominal incomes. Examples include households' decisions to take out mortgages and car loans or firms' decisions to finance with debt and commit to multiyear contracts on plants, raw materials, and labor. Sometimes, however, actual nominal incomes may turn out very different from what people expected and, as a result, may be disruptive for households and firms that are not able to quickly adjust their economic plans. These disruptions can be minimized by maintaining nominal income on the growth path expected by the public.



The neutral level of NGDP, then, is the public's expected growth path of nominal income. Both this measure and the NGP Gap are shown below up through 2020:Q1 and come from a NGDP Fact Sheet we will be publishing each quarter. 





To be clear, non-zero NGDP gap outcomes need not be the result of Fed policy but of monetary conditions more generally. For example, the current NGDP gap exists because of the severe nominal income shortfall that has emerged from the COVID-19 shock. Consequently, the job of the Fed and U.S. Treasury during this crisis is to close this gap and avoid the secondary spillover effects (e.g. mass insolvency) this shortfall could create. Failure to close it would indicate a failure of countercyclical policy. This measure, then, provides a useful guide for the economic relief efforts during the pandemic. 


Extension I: Blue Chip Forecast Version

A key goal of this project was to provide a measure that is relatively simple to calculate and uses publicly available data. To that end, the neutral level of NGDP is based off of forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and BEA data on NGDP. There is no use of r-star or u-star and therefore no "navigating by the stars" in this measure. The neutral level of NGDP is just an averaging of NGDP level forecasts from accessible data sources. Below is the formula for the neutral level of NGDP:




where NGDPt* is the neutral level and NGDPt-iSPF forecast(t) are NGDP level forecasts for period t coming from the past 20 quarters. NGDPt*, in short, is just a rolling average of NGDP level forecasts for a particular period. The difference between it and actual NGDP is the NGDP gap. 



Given the five-year (20 quarter) window in creating NGDPt*, there is a need for long-term NGDP forecasts. They are available in the SPF, but begin only in 1992 and therefore limit our series to a start date of 1997. 



The Blue Chip forecast database provides a long-term NGDP forecast that goes back further than the SPF. Alexander Schibuola and Andrew Martinez (2020) use it to construct an even longer time series of the NGDP gap. It is shown in the figure below along with the SPF version we use at Mercatus. The two NGDP gaps are very similar. 






Interestingly, Schibuola and Martinez use the data to construct a forecasted NGDP gap and it is disturbingly large. Even the recovery looks nasty. 



The use of Blue Chip data is a nice extension of the NGDP gap. However, we still plan to use the SPF version as our baseline version since the data is free and we can show the underlying calculations to the public. Eventually, we plan to provide the Blue Chip version as a complement to our baseline SPF version, but since it uses proprietary data only the final measure will be available. 

Extension II: Precision Version

Schibuola and Martinez also provide another useful extension of the NGDP gap that looks at its precision. They motivate this by noting two potential issues: (1) the forecasters in the SPF sample change over time and (2) individual forecasts in the SPF may be very different. Accounting for these two issues they produce the following chart that shows the range of individual forecasts for a semi-fixed sample of forecasters in the SPF. 







The median of the semi-fixed sample provides a very similar result to the overall median of all the forecasters. Also, the range of forecasts provides a way to better think about the stance of monetary policy. For example, one could make the case that monetary policy was neutral in 2019 since the range of estimates span both sides of 0 percent. 


Extension III: NGDP Targeting Application

As noted above, the use of the NGDP gap does not require the adoption of a NGDP target by the Fed. Nonetheless, a closer look at the forecasts used in constructing the neutral level of NGDP reveal that it could be used by the Fed as the target growth path for a NGDP target. For it would amount to a NGDP level target that slowly changes the target NGDP growth path based on changes to forecasts of potential real GDP.





To see why this is the case, note that we use a combination of short-run and long-run forecasts of NGDP to construct the neutral level estimate of NGDP. The SPF provides distinct quarterly NGDP forecasts for five quarters out: t+1 to t+5. After that, we use the average annual NGDP forecast over the next 10 years adjusted to a quarterly basis for quarters t+6 to t+20. This is seen in the table below. 







What this means is that three-fourths of each NGDP neutral level estimate is being shaped by a long-term forecast of NGDP. This long-term forecast, in turn, is the sum of a 10-year average GDP deflator inflation forecast and a 10-year average real GDP growth rate forecast. The long-term inflation forecast is determined by the Fed's inflation target while the long-term real GDP growth rate forecast is shaped by expected changes in the potential real GDP growth rate. 



Consequently, as the neutral level of NGDP series moves through time, it can be seen as a rolling average of expected changes to potential real GDP growth plus the Fed's inflation target. This is the kind of NGDP level target some advocates, like Jeff Frankel, would like to see implemented.  



The figure below shows the neutral level of NGDP constructed with the Blue Chip data, complements of Schibuola and Martinez. This version allows us to see a hypothetical NGDP level target from late 1987 to present based on the neutral level measure of NGDP. 







Again, the original intent of the neutral level of NGDP and the NGDP gap is simply to provide a crosscheck against other measures of the stance of monetary policy. The discussion of a NGDP level target is simply an extension of this work. 



Here's hoping, though, that the Fed and Treasury keep this measure front and central in their efforts to provide economic relief during the COVID-19 crisis. 

Background: Two to three percent of pregnancies will receive a diagnosis of a congenital anomaly, of which a proportion are fatal. While the prevalence of congenital anomalies is low it is the leading cause of fetal death and child mortality. More women are receiving a diagnosis of a fetal anomaly during their pregnancy as a result of advancements in technology. While there is no universally agreed definition, the term fatal fetal anomaly (FFA) is widely used to describe a condition likely to lead to death of the fetus in utero or within 28 days of birth. Delivering a diagnosis of a FFA is usually unexpected and is an unwanted and traumatic event for parents. Little is known about what conditions are most responsible for perinatal mortality. Following a FFA diagnosis, parents face multiple challenges, primarily whether to continue and avail of PPC or terminate the affected pregnancy. Regardless of the choice, the outcome is ultimately the same, ending in a fetal, neonatal or infant death. The need for the decision to be an informed one is paramount. Information is an essential factor to develop patient's knowledge and empowers them in their decision-making. Media offers an insight into health-related information widely available to the public. FFA has generated international media attention as termination of pregnancy (TOP) for FFA was legislated for, for the first time in Ireland. However, it is identified that what the people voted for has not materialised in the legislation relating to practical terms of delivering abortion care. Following pregnancy loss or perinatal death, parents require various levels of support during their bereavement. There is an over reliance on voluntary organisations to provide peer support to families to meet their needs that often surpass that of standard maternity hospital provision. Education is essential in healthcare in order to keep up-to-date with best practice. This is of particular importance as TOP for FFA, without gestational limits, was provided for within legislation for the first time in Ireland from 2019. This change in legislation warrants an exploration into Volunteers experiences of supporting families, and Fetal Medicine Specialists' (FMS) experiences of caring for parents following a FFA diagnosis. The overall aim of this thesis was to explore various aspects of pregnancies diagnosed with FFA, during this change in service provision. Methodology: To address the thesis's aims, both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed. Employing a mixed methods approach to study a phenomenon allows for flexibility to explore different aspects in each of the studies. A secondary analysis was undertaken on anonymised data obtained from the National Perinatal Epidemiology Centre, pertaining to perinatal deaths from January 2011 to December 2016 in Ireland. A national cross-sectional telephone survey was undertaken to assess the public knowledge on FFA. For these quantitative studies, descriptive and inferential statistics were utilised to analyse data. A critical discourse analysis was undertaken to examine the relations between discourse and social and cultural phenomena. Habermasian's framework facilitated an objective analysis of text in the Irish media, to facilitate interpretation and understanding of socially produced meanings. A modified Delphi study, involving two rounds and inclusive of free text, was undertaken to identify educational needs of Volunteers. Lastly, for two of the qualitative studies an interpretive descriptive approach facilitated the researcher to delve into Volunteers' and FMS experiences of supporting and caring for parents who receive a diagnosis of a FFA at a time where TOP for FFA is being provided for, for the first time. This inductive approach represents a co-constructed truth, it moves beyond the level of description of the phenomenon and articulates a meaning of and explanation for these experiences, generating implications for practice and application of these. Both of these studies adopted a data analysis methodology based on the principles of thematic analysis. Results: A lack of accurate knowledge relating to FFA, its classification, diagnosis and supports available to parents experiencing a pregnancy affected by a FFA among the general public was illustrated within this thesis. Additionally, the data identified misrepresentations in the information relating to FFA delivered to the general public. Outlined by these findings, opportunistic politicians were found to utilise the media to highlight their party's ideological perspective regarding FFA, to derive political advantage to gain popularity and power. This thesis identified that the uncertainty of what conditions were deemed fatal in accordance with the legislation was related to the ambiguity and restrictiveness of the Irish TOP legislation as long-term survivors are known to many of the conditions considered a FFA. The lack of a universal agreement of what constitutes as a FFA and a list of conditions that are associated with this term, adds additional challenges to diagnosing a congenital anomaly as fatal. On examination of perinatal deaths with a congenital anomaly as a main cause of death, reported between 2011 and 2016, only 42% could be deemed a FFA in accordance with the criteria implemented by the Irish legislation. Many of the conditions in isolation may not be a FFA however, when combined they have the potential to be fatal. The suitability of the Irish legislation for TOP for FFA generated further difficulties for FMS due to its rapid introduction into clinical practice. FMS reported the lack of organisational support, time to prepare and additional resources as challenges for the introduction of a new service. These challenges were exacerbated by FMS fear of criminalisation attached to the TOP legislation if a TOP was carried out for a condition not deemed to be fatal and the subsequent media scrutiny. The data from these studies also revealed the importance of education and keeping up to date in order to deliver the best evidence based peer support and healthcare. The need for information specific to TOP for FFA provision in the Republic of Ireland was highlighted. Both Volunteers and FMS emphasised the importance of collaborative working (Volunteers requiring the support of healthcare professionals and FMS requiring the support of their colleagues) to meet the needs of parents following a FFA diagnosis while also acknowledging the importance of teamwork in supporting them in their peer support or clinical role. Organisational and collegial support is essential to sustain the delivery of peer-to-peer support for Volunteers and to reduce the feeling of isolation and judgement for FMS providing TOP for FFA. Thus, assisting both Volunteers and FMS in their own self-care while working in an emotive environment involving pregnancy loss and perinatal death. Conclusion: These data suggest there is a need for better knowledge of FFA, particularly regarding the complexity relating to the presentation of infants with a fetal anomaly that leads to them being fatal. These studies acknowledge the need for a universal term and definition that represents fetuses/infants with conditions that cause perinatal death to ensure a standard of care for women and their partners following a FFA diagnosis. It promotes the need for a universal database designed to collect essential epidemiologic information on congenital anomalies within the Republic of Ireland to support the labelling of a condition as a FFA. Additionally, the importance of education and the need to provide support and care to parents following FFA that reflects best practice and responds to their needs. FMS providing TOP for FFA services require organisational and collegial support to effectively deliver this new service. Furthermore, this thesis promotes the need to support both Volunteers and healthcare professionals involved in the delivery of care for parents following a FFA diagnosis through a collaborative approach, one that values and respects all members. The findings of these data outline several recommendations for the Irish TOP legislation, healthcare policy and clinical practice. It argues the need to reform the TOP legislation by removing the retained criminalisation, amending Section 11 and remove the restrictive 28 days. Furthermore, it is recommended that the Act refers to clinical practice guidelines informed by FMS and those healthcare professionals working within the abortion services. Finally, it identifies areas that warrant further research, such as the exploration of parents' experiences of care and support received following a FFA diagnosis, to inform future intervention and improve care delivered to parents following a FFA diagnosis.

Background: Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death in children and young adults. Children are at increased risk of fatalities and serious injury due to the differences in their body segment proportions affecting their body kinetics in a vehicle accident. Serious injury and death can be reduced by the appropriate use of car restraint systems (CRS). Children with special health care needs (CSHCN), particularly children with poor postural control, may need adaptive seating to improve postural support and sitting ability within the vehicle due to their additional physical needs. Standard CRS might be unsafe or inappropriate for children with physical disabilities. Research Aims: The thesis aimed to understand the current CRS usage as well as the parents' experiences and perspectives of transportation of CSHCN in the Western Cape, and to determine the postural support needs of CSHCN and the suitability of different CRS designs to meet these needs during transportation. This was achieved through a survey study, followed by a cross-sectional study. Assessing the use of car restraint systems in children with special health care needs; a Western Cape based survey study Objectives: To determine the modes of transport and the prevalence of the use of postural support systems by CSHCN. Along with describing the current use of seatbelts, standard or specialised CRS and exploring the challenges faced by parents of CSHCN during transportation. Methods: A descriptive quantitative survey was performed amongst a convenience sample of all parents of CSHCN between the age of 4 – 18 years enrolled at three special needs schools in the Western Cape, South Africa. Parents had to be able to read and understand English or Afrikaans to be eligible for enrolment in the study. Focus group discussions were conducted to validate the self-designed questionnaire. Results: Parents of 268 children were enrolled in the study (median (IQR) age 11.52 (14.63- 8.86) years; 58.96% male). The most common diagnosis was cerebral palsy (CP) (29.10%), and most children were transported to school with public transport, including school bus (73.13%). The mode of transport was linked to the distance travelled and affordability, and each had its own challenges. The main challenges of parents using private transport were transporting the wheelchair (10.82%) and the unavailability of demarcated disability parking bays (7.46%). When using public transport parents identified their child's poor sitting balance (6.34%) and lack of space within the vehicle (5.60%) as the greatest challenges. The majority of children (58.96%) came from low-to-middle income households (0.700, p0.879). This tool was used to identify CSHCN who had difficulty sitting independently on different types of seats. These participants underwent a standardised sitting balance assessment, using the Level of Sitting Scale (LSS), to identify eligible participants with postural support needs. Participants were excluded if they recently had surgery or had an unstable health condition which could alter their sitting balance. The ability of two standard CRS (Car Seat and Booster seat), two Specialised CRS (one locally and one internationally produced), and Seatbelt only to provide adequate postural support was investigated. Head and trunk postures were analysed and categorised, by deviation from the midline, by photographs taken from different viewpoints. Results: There were 78 CSHCN enrolled in the study (mean (SD) age 11.50 (3.70) years; 65.75% male), the most common diagnosis was CP (63.48%), the majority of participants did not require any support to maintain sitting balance and were categorised as levels 5-8 of the LSS (78.08%). According to the World Health Organisation anthropometric guidelines 54.79% (n=40) of the participants should still use a CRS, either a Booster Seat (42.47%, n=31) or a Car Seat (12.33%, n=9). The head or torso fully supported and between the side supports of the CRS was the most common posture in all the viewpoints of the different CRS except for the lateral head viewpoint of the CRS Car Seat (50.00%; n=4), the Booster Seat (60.00%; n=18), and the International Specialised CRS (60.61%; n=20), as well as the anterior torso viewpoint of the Seatbelt only (50.75%; n=34). The CRS that resulted in the largest proportion of unacceptable posture deviations from the standard position were the Seatbelt only (20.90%, n=56) and the Booster Seat (18.33%, n=22). Out of position (OOP) postures were observed in all the devices for the anterior and lateral head positions (3.03% - 20.00%). The Booster Seat, the Local Specialised CRS and the Seatbelt only devices had participants with OOP postures in all four viewpoints. A key observation in the current study is the lack of torso support for the majority of CSHCN in the anterior torso viewpoint of the Seatbelt Only CRS (55.22%, n=37), indicating that the use of a Seatbelt only does not provide adequate postural support for all CSHCN despite them meeting WHO anthropometric requirements. No significant association was found between the pre- and post-test postural analysis scores of the Seatbelt only (X2=2.14, p=0.144) which could be as a result of the large postural deviations pre-testing (41.79%, n=28) remained post-testing. However, there was a significant association between the preand post-test scores of the anterior head viewpoint of the Booster seat (X2= 7.94, p=0.005), indicating lateral head deviation. The post-test postural analysis score of the Booster Seat anterior head viewpoint was significantly associated with a deviated posture (X2= 7.94, p=0.005). Other OOP observations included postures that could not be categorised by head and trunk deviation from the midline including head or torso rotation, abnormal limb placement, body extension and slouching. Overall performance scores are a sum of the number of viewpoints where the CSHCN posture worsens post-test. an indication of the number of CSHCN whose posture worsened post-test in each of the viewpoints of the CRS. Although there was no correlation between the LSS score and the overall performance score of any CRS device which would indicate if the CSHCN balance influences CRS performance, the Booster Seat (80.00%, n=24) and the Seatbelt only (55.23%, n=37) devices had the greatest number of participants with a poor overall performance. The viewpoints which had the worst performance scores were the anterior and lateral head of the Booster Seat (46.67%, n=14 and 43.33%, n=13 respectively) and both viewpoints had majority of participants worsen their scores. All CRS performed adequately in the lateral torso viewpoint, indicating sufficient support of the torso in the sagittal plane. Conclusions: The postural support needs of CHSCN are unique and depend on the child's anthropometry and the severity of their disability. The currently available CRS designs may not provide the postural support needed for many CSHCN. Postural deviations of the head, torso and limbs were observed which could be dangerous in the event of an accident. This study was not able to determine specific characteristics of CSHCN that require specialised CRS, as there was no association between the LSS and the overall performance score for any of the CRS devices. However, devices that offer less head and torso lateral support, or do not offer additional harness support such as the Seatbelt Only and the Booster Seat showed the largest proportion of OOP postures in CSHCN. Thesis Conclusion: This thesis highlights the complex transportation needs of CSHCN in South Africa and how the different CRS can influence posture. Additional observational research is required to determine the CRS usage in the CSHCN population to compare to the prevalence of CRS usage found in this survey study. Future research could incorporate other specialised CRS designs, particularly ones that are suitable for CSHCN beyond standard CRS weight and height limits or those with severe physical limitations that could not be tested during this study's simulated course. Practitioners prescribing and advising parents on CRS devices for the safe transportation of CSHCN should integrate thorough patient assessment and knowledge of manufacturer CRS design specifications to promote CRS usage. Policies should consider and accommodate for the challenges faced by CSHCN and their families in accessing, affording and utilising transport services. Advocacy and education programs should be combined with legislation enforcement to support improved implementation of CRS usage amongst all children, regardless of their disability status. For effective implementation for CSHCN, CRS should be affordable, accessible, functional and accommodate growth and postural support needs.

El pasado 3 de junio, en el marco del Foro Nacional Estudiantil del 2020, Propuestas por Colombia: la voz de los jóvenes, de la facultad de Economía, se realizó el primer panel de discusión, llamado "Nuevos Retos y Oportunidades de la Educación en Colombia". El evento contó con la opinión de expertos en temas académicos y educativos, que respondieron a diferentes cuestiones coyunturales. Entre ellos estuvieron Alejandro Cheyne, rector de la Universidad del Rosario, Juan David Aristizábal, educador, Mauricio Castillo, subsecretario de calidad y pertinencia de la Secretaría de Bogotá, Darwin Cortés, profesor investigador y Marcela Bautista, socióloga de la Universidad Nacional. Para nuestros expertos, entre los principales retos al que se enfrenta la educación actualmente es lograr que sea de alta calidad para todos, reevaluar el modelo de negocio para reducir las barreras de entrada, integrar las competencias duras y blandas, y lograr espacios de interacción para desarrollar habilidades socioemocionales. Por otro lado, dentro de las oportunidades generadas dentro de la crisis, están la innovación en espacios de encuentro, transformación pedagógica de roles, repensar la duración y mejorar el acceso al mundo laboral. El panel finalizó con una ronda de preguntas personalizadas para cada panelista, enfocadas según la especialidad de cada uno. La primera pregunta, acerca de la brecha entre ciudad y ruralidad en términos de educación remota, fue para Marcela, quien respondió que pese a las condiciones tan complejas que enfrentan las zonas rurales en términos de pobreza, violencia y accesibilidad a la educación remota, "como sistema educativo, nosotros no tenemos un mecanismo o una estrategia de comunicación con esa ruralidad, pero sobre todo con la ruralidad dispersa", debido a la configuración administrativa de las secretarías de educación. La segunda pregunta, acerca de la deserción estudiantil fue para el profesor Darwin, quien respondió que efectivamente la deserción va a aumentar debido a los cambios generados por la crisis, pero que esté factor reprimirá el desarrollo económico, ya que entre más tiempo pasan los estudiantes en casa, menos tiempo tienen los padres para salir y buscar empleo. Por lo tanto, "gran parte de la solución depende de que los niños estén escolarizados, lo cual significa que, debe haber un compromiso importante por parte del gobierno para alivianar los problemas de financiación crediticia que tienen las familias". La tercera pregunta fue, ¿cómo el emprendimiento puede responder a lo que sucede hoy?, resulta por Juan David en tres ideas principales: primero, "pensar en cómo nos educamos en mejores pedagogías para enseñar en la educación superior", además, pensar en replantear la metodología de pago a los profesores considerando las nuevas condiciones del entorno, con el incremento en la demanda de clases grabadas que conecten emocionalmente, los profesores podrían ganar dinero monetizando sus videos. Y finalmente, "el fortalecimiento del talento de nuestros profesores en educción superior, sabiendo que tenemos hoy en día muchos más profesores en el exterior, ya que no necesitamos incurrir en el costo de traerlos físicamente". La cuarta pregunta, fue sobre los avances que ha tenido la Alcaldía en términos infraestructura para implementar la jornada única en las instituciones y qué podría pasar con estos dada la creciente necesidad de espacios virtuales, a lo que Mauricio hizo énfasis en que hoy en día implementar la jornada única es un reto con o sin pandemia, pero que "a través de utilizar la educación remota, podríamos comenzar a ganar experiencias de cómo, en un eventual regreso post- pandemia, vamos a poder y hacer mucho más eficiente" la combinación del uso de estos espacios. Pensando en aprovechar la oportunidad que representa esta coyuntura para desarrollar la infraestructura necesaria en una situación de jornada completa. La última pregunta fue, ¿cómo van a ser las universidades después de la pandemia?, que nuestro rector respondió, resaltando la importancia del "emprendizaje", que se define como aprender a emprender, "algunos de nosotros creemos firmemente que el emprendimiento es para todos, que no se requiere una condición socioeconómica, que no depende de ningún gen, que no depende de antecedentes familiares ni empresariales, y creemos firmemente que, el emprendimiento es una competencia que se puede desarrollar, y que, por lo tanto, como toda competencia se puede evaluar", afirmó Cheyne, "las universidades lo que tienen que hacer es darse cuenta, realmente de su misión… uno, formar proyectos de vida, y dos, servir al país, porque para una universidad como la nuestra el servicio al país no es una alternativa, es la solución", finalizó. ; On June 3, within the framework of the 2020 National Student Forum, Proposals for Colombia: the voice of young people, from the Faculty of Economics, the first panel of discussion was held, called "New Challenges and Opportunities for Education in Colombia". The event had the opinion of experts in academic and educational subjects, who responded to different conjunctural questions. Among them were Alejandro Cheyne, rector of the Universidad del Rosario, Juan David Aristizábal, educator, Mauricio Castillo, undersecretary of quality and relevance of the Bogotá Secretariat, Darwin Cortés, research professor and Marcela Bautista, sociologist of the National University. For our experts, among the main challenges that education currently faces is to ensure that it is of high quality for all, to reevaluate the business model to reduce entry barriers, integrate hard and soft skills, and achieve interaction spaces for develop socio-emotional skills. On the other hand, among the opportunities generated within the crisis, are innovation in meeting spaces, pedagogical transformation of roles, rethinking the duration and improving access to the world of work. The panel ended with a round of personalized questions for each panelist, focused on each one's specialty. The first question, about the gap between city and rurality in terms of remote education, was for Marcela, who answered that despite the complex conditions that rural areas face in terms of poverty, violence and accessibility to remote education, " As an educational system, we do not have a mechanism or a communication strategy with that rurality, but above all with dispersed rurality ", due to the administrative configuration of the education secretariats. The second question, about student dropout, was for Professor Darwin, who answered that effectively dropout will increase due to the changes generated by the crisis, but that this factor will repress economic development, since the more time students spend at home, the less time parents have to go out and look for work. Therefore, "much of the solution depends on the children being in school, which means that there must be a significant commitment from the government to alleviate the problems of credit financing that families have." The third question was, how can entrepreneurship respond to what is happening today? Juan David results in three main ideas: first, "think about how we educate ourselves in better pedagogies to teach in higher education", in addition, think about Rethinking the methodology for paying teachers considering the new environmental conditions, with the increase in demand for recorded classes that connect emotionally, teachers could earn money by monetizing their videos. And finally, "the strengthening of the talent of our teachers in higher education, knowing that today we have many more teachers abroad, since we do not need to incur the cost of bringing them physically." The fourth question was about the progress that the Mayor's Office has had in terms of infrastructure to implement the single day in the institutions and what could happen to these given the growing need for virtual spaces, to which Mauricio emphasized that today implement the single day is a challenge with or without a pandemic, but that "through the use of remote education, we could begin to gain experiences of how, in an eventual post-pandemic return, we will be able and make much more efficient" the combination of use of these spaces. Thinking of taking advantage of the opportunity that this situation represents to develop the necessary infrastructure in a full-time situation. The last question was, how are universities going to be after the pandemic ?, which our rector answered, highlighting the importance of "entrepreneurship", which is defined as learning to undertake, "some of us firmly believe that entrepreneurship is for all, that a socioeconomic condition is not required, that it does not depend on any gene, that it does not depend on family or business background, and we firmly believe that entrepreneurship is a competence that can be developed, and that, therefore, like all competence can be evaluated ", said Cheyne," what universities have to do is really realize their mission . one, form life projects, and two, serve the country, because for a university like ours the service to The country is not an alternative, it is the solution ", he concluded.

Background: The southwestern part of Burkina Faso (BF) like the whole country faces severe vulnerability to food and nutrition insecurity, which is characterised by a cyclical up and down, and particularly by a high rate of malnutrition. Dietary patterns represent one of the key factors of food and nutrition security or insecurity, especially malnutrition, and are thus the optimal starting point of investigating food and nutrition security. Earlier studies on food security focus on the production of and access to food but less on food consumption. This has led to a lack of concrete opportunities to capture the complexity of the dietary and culinary patterns to reflect on the fundamental issue of how food insecurity is experienced and perceived by the food insecure people themselves. Objective: Against this constellation, this study investigated household's (hh) practices and experiences of food and nutrition by focussing on their dietary patterns for a better understanding of and therefore to a better policy to reduce vulnerability to food and nutrition insecurity in Dano commune, located in the southwestern part of Burkina Faso. Methods: The data collection involved observations, in-depth unstructured and semi-structured interviews with key informants (n=28) and households (n=133 household), focus group discussions (n=8) and informal discussions, as well as household surveys and food consumption assessment such as 24-hour/seven-day, recalls on dietary intake (n=133 household). Results: Dietary patterns were characterised by a poor quantity and quality of diet. Quantitatively the largest number of households (69%) consumed less than the recommended three daily meals. Whereby 61 % of households had a meal twice, 31% thrice, 4% once a day and 2% had occasionally a daily meal-meaning that they had no meal or less than once a meal a day, but with the tendency of not having a meal. Qualitatively dietary patterns were monotonous with rarely any diversification. Diet consisted predominated of cooked cereal grains or flour-in form of a paste (tô)- accompanied by a sauce. Maize, red sorghum and rice were the most consumed cereals types. Diversity comes from the types of sauces. Sauces are with but not always meat or fish. For seasonings, shea butter and the traditional spice soumbala and/or were the most used in the sauces in the rural area, whereas Maggi and other vegetable oils (mostly groundnut, palm oil) appear in urban sauces. Okra, onion, aubergine, cabbage and sorrel are the most consumed vegetables both as fruit and leaves. Tomato is used fresh and/or as a paste, but mostly fresh. Baobab leaves, generally used in form of dried powder represent also a significant part of the vegetables used by the households in sauces. The common dish on festive days is rice with tomato sauce with meat or poultry, accompanied by tuber stew in some cases. Pasta with tomato sauce is getting more a festive dish in rural Dano. Other food groups, such as dairy products, meat and poultry, eggs, fruits, roots and tubers were irregularly consumed. These dietary patterns invariably lead to low dietary diversity and high malnutrition rates, especially among the most vulnerable population groups that were women in their reproductive age, and children under five years. Furthermore, this study found out that the regular consumption of the local beer Dolo was an influential part of the diet. This was due to the dominant sociocultural and religious meaning of the dolo during funerals and social events. The dietary patterns were determined by economic, local food availability, sociocultural and health-nutritional factors. Economic and local food availability factors were revealed as having the strongest influence on diet. The sources of food were mainly own-production of food, purchase of food and food aid in form of intersocial and institutional food transfer. However, not only food consumption underlined contexts of vulnerability, but food production and access as well. Food production was vulnerable to the existing and increasing climatic variability, increasing plant/crops and livestock diseases and the associated decreasing yields. Additionally, population growth and the resulting lack of land and related social instability, the increasing disinterest of the youth for farming, as well as the low institutional support and the predominance of traditional land rights represented further constraints faced by food producers. Food access was vulnerable to increasing food prices and a limited supply of some food groups (especially roots and tubers), fresh fish and good quality meat. Established coping and/or adaptive strategies to that vulnerable food and nutrition situation existed at both household and institutional level. Households applied petty commodity production and trading (43%), the sale of livestock (31%), the sale of vegetables (16%), consumption of wild plants and fruits (21%) as most coping strategies. Institutions focused on sensibilisation (conscious awareness) on nutritive food and hygienic behaviour; admission and treatment of malnourished children through consumption of local nutritive crops in the health centre, school meals and food aid programmes for the most vulnerable as well as on increasing food production strategies. Conclusion: This study highlights the vulnerabilities of the whole food and nutrition security chain- especially of food consumption- in the study area. The results add to the growing body of research indicating that good food availability and access do not guarantee adequate dietary patterns. Furthermore, the study draws attention - at both the household and institutional level- to the importance and promotion of intensive awareness on the importance and the necessity of adequate dietary patterns, especially for the most vulnerable groups of women in their reproductive age and children under five years. ; Ernährungsgewohnheiten und Ernährungssicherheit in Westafrika - Praktiken aus dem Südwesten Burkina Fasos Hintergrund: Der südwestliche Teil von Burkina Faso (BF) ist wie das gesamte Land einer starken Anfälligkeit gegenüber Ernährungsunsicherheit ausgesetzt, die durch ein zyklisches Auf und Ab und insbesondere durch eine hohe Unterernährungsrate gekennzeichnet ist. Die Ernährungsgewohnheiten stellen einen der Schlüsselfaktoren für die Ernährungssicherheit oder -unsicherheit -insbesondere der Unterernährung- dar und sind somit der optimale Ausgangspunkt für die Untersuchung der Ernährungssicherheit. Frühere Studien zur Ernährungssicherheit konzentrierten sich auf die Erzeugung und den Zugang zu Lebensmitteln, jedoch weniger auf die Nutzung von Nahrungsmitteln. Dies hat zu einem Mangel an konkreten Möglichkeiten geführt, um die Komplexität der Ernährungsmuster zu erfassen, um über die grundlegende Frage nachzudenken, wie Ernährungsunsicherheit von den ernährungsunsicheren Menschen selbst erfahren und wahrgenommen wird. Zielsetzung: Vor diesem Hintergrund untersuchte diese Studie die Praktiken und Erfahrungen von Haushalten (hh) in Bezug auf Ernährung, indem sie sich auf ihre Ernährungsgewohnheiten konzentrierte, um diese besser zu verstehen und politische Entscheidungen zur Verringerung der Anfälligkeit für Ernährungsunsicherheit in Dano kommune, im südwestlichen Teil von Burkina Faso, zu verbessern. Methoden: Die Datenerhebung umfasste Beobachtungen, unstrukturierte und halbstrukturierte Interviews mit Key Informanten (Schlüsselinformanten, n = 28) und Haushalten (n = 133 Haushalt), Fokusgruppendiskussionen (n = 8) und informellen Diskussionen sowie Haushalt Umfragen und die Bewertung der Nahrungsaufnahme durch 24-Stunden- und 7-Tage -Diät-Rückrufe (n = 133 Haushalte). Ergebnisse: Ernährungsgewohnheiten waren durch eine mangelnde quantitative und qualitative Aufnahme an Nahrung gekennzeichnet. Quantitativ nahm die größte Anzahl von Haushalten (69%) weniger als die empfohlenen drei täglichen Mahlzeiten zu sich. Dabei hatten 61% der Haushalte zweimal eine Mahlzeit, 31% dreimal, 4% einmal täglich und 2% gelegentlich eine tägliche Mahlzeit. Qualitativ waren die Ernährungsgewohnheiten monoton mit seltener Diversifizierung. Eine Mahlzeit bestand überwiegend aus gekochten Getreidekörnern oder Mehl in Form von Paste (tô) - begleitet von einer grünen gemüsesoße. Mais, roter Sorghum und Reis waren die am meisten konsumierten Getreidesorten. Vielfalt ergibt sich aus den Saucenarten. Saucen sind häufig, aber nicht immer, mit Fleisch oder Fisch zubereitet. Im ländlichen Raum werden Saucen vorwiegend mit Sheabutter und dem traditionellen Gewürz Soumbala zubereitet, wogegen Maggi und andere Pflanzenöle (meist Erdnussöl oder Palmöl) in Saucen im Stadtgebiet genutzt werden. Okra, Zwiebeln, Auberginen, Kohl und Sauerampfer sind das am meisten konsumierte Gemüse-sowohl die Frucht als auch die Blätter-. Tomaten werden frisch und / oder als Paste verwendet, jedoch meistens frisch. Baobabblätter, die in der Regel in Form von getrocknetem Pulver verwendet werden, stellen auch einen bedeutenden Teil des Gemüses dar, das von den Haushalten in Saucen verwendet wird. An Festtagen wird Reis mit Tomatensauce und Fleisch oder Geflügel, in einigen Fällen auch Knolleneintopf, zubereitet. Teigwaren mit Tomatensauce werden im ländlichen Dano immer festlicher. Andere Lebensmittelgruppen wie Milchprodukte, Fleisch und Geflügel, Eier, Obst, Wurzeln und Knollen wurden unregelmäßig konsumiert. Diese Ernährungsgewohnheiten führen ausnahmslos zu einer niedrigen Ernährungsvielfalt und hohen Unterernährungsraten, insbesondere bei den am stärksten gefährdeten Bevölkerungsgruppen, den Frauen im gebärfähigen Alter und Kindern unter fünf Jahren. Darüber hinaus stellte diese Studie fest, dass Dolo, ein lokales Bier, einen einflussreichen Teil der Ernährung darstellte, aufgrund der zentralen soziokulturellen und religiösen Bedeutung des Dolo während Beerdigungen und gesellschaftlichen Ereignissen. Die Ernährungsgewohnheiten wurden durch ökonomische, lokale Nahrungsmittelverfügbarkeit, soziokulturelle und gesundheitsfördernde Faktoren bestimmt. Dabei spielten die wirtschaftlichen Faktoren und die lokale Nahrungsmittelverfügbarkeit den stärksten Einfluss auf die Ernährung. Nahrungsquellen waren hauptsächlich die Eigenproduktion von Nahrungsmitteln, der Kauf von Nahrungsmitteln und die Nahrungsmittelhilfe in Form von intersozialem und institutionellem Lebensmitteltransfer. Allerdings war nicht nur die Nahrungsaufnahme Verwundbar gegenüber Ernährungsunsicherheit, sondern auch die Produktion von und der Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln. Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion war anfällig für die bestehende und zunehmende Klimavariabilität, zunehmende Pflanzen- und Viehbestandskrankheiten und die damit verbundenen sinkenden Erträge. Das Bevölkerungswachstum und der daraus resultierende Mangel an Land und die damit verbundene soziale Instabilität, das zunehmende Desinteresse der Jugend an der Landwirtschaft sowie die geringe institutionelle Unterstützung und das Vorherrschen traditioneller Landrechte bildeten weitere Einschränkungen für die Nahrungsmittelproduzenten. Der Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln war anfällig für steigende Lebensmittelpreise und ein begrenztes Angebot an bestimmten Lebensmittelgruppen (insbesondere Wurzeln und Knollen), frischem Fisch und Fleisch von guter Qualität. Sowohl auf Haushaltsebene als auch auf institutioneller Ebene gab es etablierte Bewältigungs- und / oder Anpassungsstrategien für diese anfällige Nahrungsmittel- und Ernährungssituation. Die privaten Haushalte verwendeten Produktion und Handel von Kleinwaren (43%), Verkauf von Vieh (31%), Verkauf von Gemüse (16%), Konsum von Wildpflanzen und Früchten (21%) als die meist genutzten Bewältigungsstrategien. Institutionen konzentrierten sich auf die Sensibilisierung für den Konsum nahrhafter Lebensmittel und hygienisches Verhalten; die Aufnahme und Behandlung unterernährter Kinder im Gesundheitszentrum, Schulmahlzeiten und Nahrungsmittelhilfeprogramme für die am stärksten gefährdeten Personen wie Witwen und Waisen sowie durch die Förderung von Strategien zur besseren Nahrungsmittelproduktion. Schlussfolgerung: In dieser Studie wurde die Verwundbarkeit der gesamten Säulen der Nahrungssicherheit - insbesondere der Nahrungsaufnahme - im Untersuchungsgebiet aufgezeigt. Die Ergebnisse tragen zu der wachsenden Forschungsmenge bei, die besagt, dass eine gute Verfügbarkeit und ein guter Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln keine angemessenen Ernährungsgewohnheiten garantieren. Darüber hinaus macht die Studie sowohl auf Haushaltsebene als auch auf institutioneller Ebene auf die Bedeutung und Förderung einer intensiven Sensibilisierung für die Bedeutung und die Notwendigkeit angemessener Ernährungsgewohnheiten aufmerksam, insbesondere für die am stärksten gefährdeten Gruppen wie Frauen im reproduktiven Alter und Kinder unter fünf Jahren.

Sustainable human development is a theory of development that has been built since the middle of the last century, due to the need of the world to explain and seek alternatives to the deep levels of poverty produced by the conditions of inequality and exclusion of large populations of the globe . The great world conflicts caused the need for the installation of a system that would ensure that the world was not going to be involved again in such conflicts, so humanity should initiate a process of change in its structures and aim to give it participation to all development actors, raising the theory of First People with its importance of citizen participation. At the same time the generation of knowledge has had a great momentum trying to face the new challenges of humanity. In confronting the different problems that human beings have encountered in their future, they have used techniques and sciences to discover a solution to them. In the production of knowledge and based on the complexity of the problem, three schemes of relationship between the sciences were conceptualized: Disciplinarity, Interdisciplinarity and Transdisciplinarity, conceptualizing Morin the complex thought by recognizing the complexity of the human being, of the living, of the earth , of the cosmos, giving way to the construction of a new anthropocosmological culture. Faced with this horizon, there are two problematic fields that demand attention: the modes of production of knowledge, in what refers to scientific and academic knowledge, and the link between knowledge and strategic relationship for the establishment of policies that respond to the needs of reality through higher education.In the challenges of the university of the 21st century it is proposed that both from the social, political, cultural and economic point of view and from the perspective of the growing complexity of today's world, the mission of knowledge is key in terms of transformation and in terms of citizenship and social responsibility, which must be strengthened to contribute to the creation of sustainable human development, a fundamental task of Higher Education. There have been many jobs that have been on higher education produced and has been UNESCO with its Regional and World Conferences that have agreed which they are the challenges, challenges and trends as well as the Plan for Action that the countries of the world must face and promote so that higher education can achieve a lifelong education by promoting four general basic competences (Delors, 1996) as way to achieve a better world. UNESCO concludes that it is a priority to promote interaction and links between the various scientific disciplines and to promote training and research services that are oriented to the cultivation of recognition of the integration of the different sciences. As historical background and constructors of the current UNAH, writings by Tünnerman, Rama and others on the movements of University reform that occurred from the middle of the previous century in Latin America, aimed at strengthening the priority role of the Universities to consolidate were reviewed their autonomy from the dominant power groups and merge their actions with the demands of freedom of the peoples through the democratic participation of the studious youth in the conformation of the new nations. This work is based on the theoretical intellectual analysis of contextualizing the position of UNAH as a reference for higher education, within the framework of sustainable human development, through the trilogy of science, politics and citizenship, which entails the production of relevant scientific knowledge and Useful to the demands of the moment that the Honduran National lives. Based on this, the object of study of this Thesis is to assess whether UNAH, in its transformative process has reached the levels of quality, relevance and equity, transparency and accountability, making use of its resources and potential to provide the Honduran population benefits of knowledge management to contribute to the sustainable human development of the country. The research process concludes in the critical study of the products and results of UNAH as its raison d'être, in the period of transformation that it currently lives, to achieve the fulfillment of its responsibilities vis-à-vis the Honduran nation. ; El desarrollo humano sostenible es una teoría del desarrollo que se ha venido construyendo desde mediados del último siglo, por la necesidad del mundo de explicar y buscar alternativas a los profundos niveles de pobreza producida por las condiciones de inequidad y exclusión de grandes poblaciones del globo terráqueo. Los grandes confl ictos mundiales provocaron la necesidad de la instalación de un sistema que asegurara que el mundo no se iba a volver a ver envuelto en tales confl agraciones, por lo que la humanidad debería iniciar un proceso de cambio en sus estructuras y orientarse a darle participación a todos los actores del desarrollo, planteando la teoría de Primero la Gente con su importancia de la participación ciudadana. Al mismo tiempo la generación del conocimiento ha tenido un gran impulso tratando de enfrentar los nuevos retos de la humanidad. En el enfrentamiento a los distintos problemas que el ser humano ha encontrado en su devenir, ha utilizado las técnicas y las ciencias para descubrir solución a los mismos. En la producción del conocimiento y en base a la complejidad del problema, se conceptualizaron tres esquemas de relación entre las ciencias: Disciplinariedad, Interdisciplinariedad y Transdisciplinariedad, conceptualizando Morín el pensamiento complejo al reconocer la complejidad del ser humano, de lo viviente, de la tierra, del cosmos, dando paso a la construcción de una nueva cultura antropocosmológica. Frente a este horizonte, se presentan dos campos problemáticos que demandan atención: los modos de producción del conocimiento, en lo que se refi ere al saber científi co y académico, y la vinculación entre conocimiento y relación estratégica para el establecimiento de políticas que respondan a las necesidades de la realidad mediante la educación superior.En los retos de la universidad del Siglo XXI se plantea que tanto desde el punto de vista social, político, cultural y económico como desde la perspectiva de la creciente complejidad del mundo actual, la misión del conocimiento es clave en lo relativo a transformación y en términos de ciudadanía y responsabilidad social, lo que debe fortalecerse para contribuir a la creación de un desarrollo humano sostenible, tarea fundamental de la Educación Superior.Han sido muchos los trabajos que sobre educación superior se han producido y ha sido la UNESCO con sus Conferencias Regionales y Mundiales que han consensuado cuáles son los retos, desafíos y tendencias así como el Plan para la Acción que los países del mundo deben enfrentar y propiciar para que la educación superior pueda alcanzar una educación para toda la vida mediante el fomento de cuatro competencias básicas generales (Delors, 1996) como forma de lograr un mundo mejor. Concluye la UNESCO que es prioritario que se promueva la interacción y los vínculos entre las diversas disciplinas científicas y propiciar servicios de capacitación e investigación que se orienten al cultivo de reconocimiento de la integración de las distintas ciencias. Como antecedentes históricos y constructores de la actual UNAH se revisaron escritos de Tünnerman, Rama y otros sobre los movimientos de reforma Universitaria que se dieron a partir de la mitad del siglo anterior en América Latina, orientados a fortalecer el papel prioritario de las Universidades de consolidar su autonomía de los grupos de poder dominantes y fundir su accionar con las demandas de libertad de los pueblos mediante la participación democrática de la juventud estudiosa en la conformación de las nuevas naciones. Este trabajo se sustenta en el análisis intelectual teórico de contextualizar la posición de la UNAH como referente de la educación superior, en el marco del desarrollo humano sostenible, mediante la trilogía de ciencia, política y ciudadanía, que conlleve la producción de conocimiento científico pertinente y útil a las demandas del momento que vive la Nacional hondureña. En base a ello el objeto de estudio de esta Tesis es valorar si la UNAH, en su proceso transformador ha alcanzado los niveles de calidad, pertinencia y equidad, transparencia y rendición de cuentas, haciendo uso de sus recursos y potencialidades para poder brindar a la población hondureña los beneficios de la gestión del conocimiento para contribuir al desarrollo humano sostenible del país. Concluye el proceso de investigación en el estudio crítico de los productos y resultados de la UNAH como su razón de ser, en el periodo de trasformación que actualmente vive, para alcanzar el cumplimiento de sus responsabilidades frente a la nación hondureña.

To maintain biological diversity is an important aim for Norwegian environmental policies, and the Nature index for Norway is supposed help this policy by surveying the situation for biodiversity in Norway. The nature index is developed by the Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management (DN) and is based on a combination of quantitative data and qualitative evaluations. The index covers the situation for nine ecosystems and is based upon 309 indicators. The aim has been to develop an index giving a concrete numeric measure of the situation for Norwegian nature where the value of zero (0) represents an ecosystem in seriously bad conditions and the value one (1) is the reference state which is supposed to reflect the size of populations in areas with low human influences. The reference state is not to be understood as a political aim. The index for forest is built upon 72 indicators. When it comes to the conclusion for the situation for biodiversity in Norwegian forests, the report says that «Overall, open lowland and forests have the poorest state of all the major ecosystems …» (Nybø 2010, page 6). At first glance, the index seems to indicate that the biodiversity situation in the forests is poor, but at the same time, it is emphasised that there are serious problems with the index value for the forest: lack of time series data, a large proportion of qualitative expert knowledge and difficulties in setting the standard for the reference state. Because of such problems, the report say, one should be very careful when comparing indices across ecosystems. The nature index for forest thereby communicates a certain ambiguity: on the one hand the best science can do, on the other, precautions with respect to how to interpret the result. Against this background, the Nature index for Norway was presented September 2010. The low value on the index for forest immediately sparked many and mostly critical reactions, and the aim of this study has been to study the debate that developed more in detail. A content analysis illustrates how the debate took form and what it looked like. Interviews with persons central to the debates provide information for interpretations of why the topic turned out to be so conflictual. Finally, the aim of the article is to suggest some general insights into what really hinders a consensual application of scientific knowledge in processes as the nature index. The first empirical part of the study is a content analysis of the reactions to and debate on the nature index. During the first year, but mostly the first month after the release of the index, there were 82 articles on the nature index and the forest. Four groups of newspapers stood out as central to the debate: (1) Nationen, (2) Adressa/Trønderavisa, (3) other national papers and (4) other local papers. Furthermore, the analyses showed that the theme was debated (op-eds, editorials and opinions) rather than neutrally presented. The next step was to identify central actors in the debate: both as individuals and as institutions. Focusing on institutions, Ministry of Environment was the most active actor and clearly supportive to the index, Ministry of Agriculture and Food was more critical, whereas researchers seemed more mixed: SSB as positive, other as more critical or neutral. Organizations representing the forest industry appeared as mostly critical whereas environmental organizations were positive or neutral 37 percent of the articles were critical to the nature index and the forest, just as many were neutral, and 26 percent were positive. The most frequent point of critique had to do with the reference state (N=18), followed by discussions of the communication related to the index (14). Thereafter, many actors were concerned with the problems of (not) distinguishing politics and science (9), whereas pointing out the lack of appropriate data also was mentioned in several papers (6). To better understand the reasons for the conflicts appearing in the newspapers, 14 people central to the debates were interviewed. Results from these qualitative analyses are presented in two parts: one more directly linked to what the interviewees report, the other interpreting the finding as part of the larger context. The first topic coming up in most of the interviews is the question of the reference state, and three aspects of the question are discussed. First, many of the interviewees are worried about the relation between the reference state as a scientific and political measure. Second, there is a focus upon how the construction of the nature index has consequences for the forest-index. As a third concern, the communication related to the publication of the index is very much in focus. Even though the overall aim is that the nature index should be based on quantitative measures, these types of data are not available for most of the indicators, and the nature index is, accordingly, to a large extent based on expert knowledge. Because of this lack of quantitative data, some of the discussants claim that the data are simply not good enough. Furthermore, the forest industry is worried for the tendency to, in spite of the call to the opposite, compare across indices leading to the conclusion that the situation is worse in the forest than other ecosystems. Interpreting the interviews as part of the larger context, it becomes indeed clear that the involved actors see themselves as belonging to different societal segments, and very briefly: those working close to the forestry industry are critical to the index, those working with environment are positive. This does not imply that structural positions determine opinions, but identities linked to segments impregnate the whole debate, and structural positioning is reflected in opinions on which knowledge is the best and most relevant. Next, all actors appear as genuinely interested in the development of the forest and want to legitimate their own interests, knowledge and values as being to the best for the forest. Finally, the debate dovetails with the question of who really represents the environment or are most concerned with the forest, and this 'politics of identity' seems to intensify the debate. We wind up the report answering the question of what the hindrances for a successful use of science in environmental policy processes are through the concept of 'boundary work'. Boundary work implies to study relations between science and other societal arenas as a continuous struggle for the legitimacy of science and the question of what should be hegemonic knowledge and values in a field. DN has based their work with the nature index in an ideal where scientists produce the best available knowledge, where after politicians should prioritize how to act on this knowledge. Even though most participants tend to agree that this is a reasonable strategy to follow to legitimate the nature index, they do not assume that this is how the process of scientific knowledge actually works in the field of politics. As mentioned, our qualitative data are interpreted on two levels. First, with respect to the level of factual communication related to the nature index, most participants seem to agree that the communication, especially related to the publication of the main report, could have been better. Several interviewees also indicate that groups representing interests in the field could have been involved to a higher degree. Secondly, at the general level, there is no doubt so that the index delivers information in a field with deep, historical and well known conflicts of interest between groups of actors. Those working with the nature index face a divided field with two set of actors that, even though they agree on certain issues and claim to have common aims and interests, basically want to develop Norwegian forests differently. Both have to legitimize their interests which inevitably leads to, sometimes, intense debates. Even when wise strategies and good communication prevails, such structurally embedded disagreements do not disappear. Nevertheless, boundary work matters and how the nature index was and will be communicated and presented is certainly decisive for how the interaction between science and politics develop. ; Naturindeks for Norge er utarbeidet for å bedre arbeidet medbiologisk mangfold, og vurderer tilstanden i ni økologiske systemer. Da den første versjonen av indeksen ble lansert høsten 2010,ble det diskusjon omkring indeksens vurdering av tilstanden fordet biologiske mangfoldet i skogen. I denne rapporten ser vi nærmere på denne debatten. Ved hjelp av en innholdsanalyse beskriver vi når og hvor debatten foregikk, hvem som deltok, hvor kritisk den var, og hva som var gjenstand for kritikk. Med utgangspunkt i intervjuer med sentrale personer, ser vi så nærmere på hvordan de ulike aktørene beskriver og begrunner sine posisjoner. Dernest fortolker vi aktørenes posisjonering i en større sammenheng og finner klare spor av segmentering: næring mot miljø. Til slutt ser vi på debatten i lys av begrepet om grensearbeid: Kampen om legitim kunnskap.

deologically speaking, the initiators of founding all the political parties in Serbia were young intellectuals educated abroad. The ideology of political liberalism was brought to Serbia by young knowledgeable people educated in the West: Milovan Janković, Jevrem Grujić, Vladimir Jovanovic, Stojan Bošković, Filip Hristić, Đorđe Cenić and many more who published and initiated liberal-democratic ideas during the Peter Assembly in 1848. Only with St Andrea Assembly in 1858 did the Serbian Civil rebirth begin. During this assembly two political groups finally divided: the liberals and the conservatives. The most important attainment of the St Andrea Assembly in 1858 was the Act of National Assembly. This act initiated the introduction of the representative system in Serbia. In political history, the period from 1858 to 1869 represents the birth of the representative system in Serbia. The introduction of the representative system in Serbia by the Constitution of 1869 created the necessary political preconditions for organizing modern political parties. Regular political elections and participation of the Parliament in the legislative process resulted in a easier binding of the like-minded politicans with their political liders to whom it was important to strenghten their bonds with their electors. The fact that the constitutional elections took place every three years and that the Assembly took place every year led to the strenghening of the political parties in the state, since more thriving layers of society started entering the National Assembly, the delegates who infuenced the political life. After the Constitution of 1869 was enforced, the liberals are gathered under Jovan Ristić, and later the young oppositional conservatives are gathered. In the same time a third political party emerged, the supporters and followers of Svetozar Marković. The organized political parties did not emerge immediately after the Regent's Constitution although it guaranteed a selection of political rights and freedom necessary for the emergence of the political parties, such as voting right, the freedom of speech and the freedom of press. This poses a question why did it never happen? The answer is to be looked into the intention of the Regency and later Regent Milan to unable the education of the political parties. In a situation when the Regency was closer to conservative than liberal ideas, it was hard to discuss organized political parties. The non-existence of political discipline as well as well political programs adversely affected the emergence of modern political parties. 277 Assembly Elections of October 1874 had a great impact on the history of political parties in Serbia. After the elections, a few political parties emerged in the Assembly: St Andrea Liberals under Jevrem Grujić, Libears under Ristić, Conservatives under Jovan Marinović, the beginnings of Young Conservatives and People's Party of the future Radicals. The organizing of political parties was sped up by young intellectuals gathered round the paper "Videlo" and connected with the People's party in the National Assembly. The beginning of 1881 saw the emergence of modern organized political parties in Serbia: People's Radical Part, Progressive Party and Liberal Party. Until that period delegates in the National Assembly mainly performed individually, and after 1881 they perform in accordance with political program, respecting political discipline. In view of organization and the functioning, the radicals went further, because they realized that organization is of utter importance for successful functioning and development of political parties. Pera Todorovic was given most credit for organizing the Radical Party. His organization contributed a round of hierarchical organizational units starting with local committees in every small town, counties, and to the Main Committee as the supreme organ of the party. Speaking about organization of the other two political parties it could be said that they too emerged with statues similar to the radical one. However, they never occupied such number of members as the Radical Party. The main characteristic of the political life in Serbia during the 80s of the 19th century consisted of bitter fights between the Radical and the Progressive Party in which King Milan Obrenovic sided with the Progressive Party. He was the reason why the radicals, although during the period 1882-1883 in majority, they never succeeded to come to power nor for the years to come. Dedicated to unable radicalism in Serbia, Milan showed even greater resistance toward the liberal reforms and greater affection toward emergence of personal regime. After the Timok Rebellion many radical leaders were convicted for many years, and the political leader Nikola Pasic was in emigration. Among the radicals, involving even those in the custody, slowly awareness was raised that the accord with the crown was necessary. Treaty with the radicals was initiated by King Milan so as to reinforce his personal strength, decreased in the war with Bulgaria. Although hungry for power, the radicals denounced the king's offer in Nis at the beginning of 1886. Radical leaders signed a treaty with liberals instead of progressives in 1887. The King did not have many possibilities, either to give radicals power and concede defeat or to draw back. Radical-liberal coalitional government gave great attention to the constitutional problem solving. Due to the fact that the first coalitional government was short-lived, it did not solve any problems. Similar situation happened with the first homogenous radical government that did not succeed anything more than its program, due to the fact that it was smothered by the King Milan's party. The Constitutional reform of 1888 had a big impact on political and constitutional life of Serbia. The multiannual struggle of the People's Radical Party was crowned by passing the constitution by the principle of majority. 278 The position of the Radical Party is changed from the ground, because it came to power and made its own cadre consisting of young intellectuals. Oversight over the whole work of the radical government from 1889 to 1892 shows that the radicals on the one hand showed great effort to introduce the constitution into the political life of Serbia, and on the other to limit the ruler's power. However, it is important not to forget the fact that the parliamentary regime on whom so many radicals insisted was more and more changing into a totalitarian one-party system. The parliamentary system that enabled the absolute power of the Radical Party in all state institutions was short-lived. King Alexander had an immense wish to stop as soon as possible with all the new-laid things that were introduced by the parliamentary system and that is the reason he was constantly fighting with the political parties and very frequently insisted on coup. In 1894 he suspended the 1888 Constitution and reenacted the 1869 one. After that, a regime based on self-will came to power, which lasted until 1901, year when King Alexander passed a new constitution. Political life in time of self-willed regime of king Alexander was very tough, because the ruler denounced the parties with the basic idea: "to renounce with parliamentarism if we wish to arrange this state properly". The last Obrenovic tried to denounce the existence of the Constitution, the government and the National Assembly by conducting various experiments. His "neutral" governments, which consisted of unforced political personnel, were under his impact. The whole political system turned round one political person, the king, which succeeded in dividing and manipulating the political parties. Neutralizing the People's Radical Party dominance could not have lasted any longer, due to the fact that it was impossible that the party with the biggest support be in opposition any longer. The king's wedding to Draga Masin represents a turning point in political life of Serbia. The shackles of the self-willed regime started to diminish, because the king wanted "to please the parties and the nation, so that they would accept the queen." The king's compromise with the strongest party in the country did not achieve results, due to the fact that among them existed huge differences in view of "state conceptions". The radicals advocated for parliamentary monarchy in which the power would belong to the most popular party, whereas the crown advocated the constitutional monarchy in which the ruler would be a puppet in enforcing the power of the National Assembly. Co-operational politics between the king and the radicals were short-lived, since it turned out that the representatives of the two opposite state conceptions were incapable of reaching an agreement. Shorty, the king realized that the treaty with the radicals was impossible to be kept and decided to return to previous politics, as before signed by the treaty in 1901. The renewed return to the self-willed regime sped up the preparations of the conspirators that in the night of May 28th/June 10th/ May 29th June 11th staged a coup.

For whom do we transform our built environment? The answer may seem obvious, since architecture, in theory, is conceived for humans and for the emancipation of communities. However, it is clear that architecture has moved away in many ways from this initial purpose. Making our cities increasingly attractive through ambitious urban renovation campaigns, with renewed public spaces and neighbourhoods, has led to issues that are the consequences of an urbanism of exclusion. These include gentrification, social tensions and mass tourism. Recently, this situation has caused some to consider architecture and urbanism in a more inclusive way, from the perspective of neighbourhood communities and for the common good. Inherited from the twentieth century, participation processes, which are related directly with reclaiming the city, are now re-emerging in urban and architectural processes in democratic administrations. Sustainable, resilient, inclusive urban regeneration means working with inhabitants when cities are transformed, giving them the opportunity to collaborate in the city's creation. Today, these processes are evolving. New creative artistic tools are emerging that are changing the modus operandi. However, there are many gaps, with so-called participatory processes that do not guarantee the real participation of local communities. It seems that there are still many doubts and misunderstandings about how to define participatory architecture and its processes, and there is a real need for a paradigm shift. The aim of this research is to provide an updated definition and interpretation of participation in architecture in urban spaces. The thesis is organised into three parts: (1) Retrospective, (2) Tools and (3) Co-creation Experiments. The first part (1) consists of an organised retrospective of participation in history, to clarify the concept and understand all its facets. The second part (2) examines the creation of methodology for participatory action with new and traditional tools (information and communication technology, mapping, big data cartographies, artistic and creative tools such as urban sketching, tactical planning, opinion polls and collaborative websites, among others). This is achieved by classifying the tools into a taxonomy, generated through an analysis of several past and recent case studies in which the real stakeholders in urban planning – its users – co-designed the project. By combining the tools, we should be able to build a methodology or a guide for co-creation workshops. Finally, the last part (3) describes experiments in which our students collaborated with the local community, hopefully to encourage a change in habits and mindset. In fact, we show how the momentum should start from universities and education, relying on artistic co-creation as a participatory and project medium. In other words, the idea is to work creatively together for the common good. ; ¿Para quién hacemos arquitectura y ciudad? la respuesta puede parecer obvia, ya que la arquitectura, en teoría, se dedica a construir para la humanidad y la emancipación de sus comunidades. Sin embargo, está claro que también se ha alejado en muchos aspectos de este primer objetivo. Hacer que nuestras ciudades sean cada vez más atractivas a través de ambiciosas campañas de renovación urbana, con espacios públicos y vecindarios renovados, también ha llevado a problemas emergentes, consecuencias de un urbanismo de exclusión. Este último se expresa a través de la gentrificación, tensiones sociales, y turismo de masas. Afortunadamente, esto ha llevado recientemente pensar de una manera más inclusiva desde las comunidades locales. Heredados del siglo XX, los procesos de participación, que están directamente relacionados con la recuperación de la ciudad, ahora están resurgiendo en procesos urbanos y arquitectónicos en administraciones democratizadoras. La regeneración urbana sostenible, resiliente e inclusiva significa trabajar con los habitantes cuando las ciudades se transforman, dándoles la oportunidad de colaborar en la creación de la ciudad. Hoy en día, estos procesos evolucionan: emergen nuevas herramientas artísticas creativas que cambian el modus operandi. Sin embargo, hay muchas brechas actuales, con los llamados procesos participativos que no garantizan la participación real de las comunidades locales. Parece que todavía hay malentendidos sobre lo que es la arquitectura participativa, así como sus procesos, mientras que existe una necesidad real de cambio paradigmático. Esta investigación propone dar una respuesta y una interpretación renovada de la participación en la arquitectura, y más exactamente en los espacios urbanos, organizadas en tres partes: (1) retrospectiva, (2) herramientas y (3) experimentos de co-creación. La primera parte (1) consiste en una retrospectiva organizada de participación en la historia para aclarar su concepto y comprender su diversidad de facetas. La segunda parte (2) revela la creación de una metodología para la acción participativa con herramientas nuevas y tradicionales (tecnología de la información y las comunicaciones, mapeo, cartografías de big data, herramientas artísticas y creativas como bosquejos urbanos, planificación táctica, encuestas de opinión y sitios web colaborativos, entre otros), a través de su clasificación en una taxonomía. La taxonomía se ha generado a través de un análisis de varios estudios de casos históricos y recientes en los que sus usuarias y sus usuarios, co-diseñaron el proyecto. Al combinar las herramientas, deberíamos ser capaces de construir una metodología o una guía para talleres de co-creación. Finalmente, la última parte (3) involucra experimentos en los cuales nuestras y nuestros estudiantes colaboran con la comunidad local, con la esperanza de alentar un cambio en los hábitos y la sensibilidad. De hecho, mostraremos cómo debe comenzar el impulso desde las universidades y la educación, confiando en la co-creación artística como medio participativo y proyectual. En otras palabras, trabajar creativamente juntos por el bien común. ; Pour qui transformons-nous notre environnement bâti? La réponse peut sembler évidente puisque l'architecture, en théorie, conçoit pour l'être humain et pour l'émancipation de ses communautés. Néanmoins, il est clair qu'elle s'est également éloignée à bien des égards de ce premier objectif : la transformation de nos villes afin de les rendre plus attractives, à travers d'ambitieuses campagnes de rénovation urbaine, avec des espaces publics et des quartiers renouvelés, a également conduit à des enjeux émergents, qui sont les conséquences d'un urbanisme de l'exclusion. Ce dernier s'exprime à travers la gentrification (ou embourgeoisement), l'augmentation des tensions sociales ou encore l'abandon à un scénario de tourisme de masse. Ces conséquences ont récemment amené à penser l'urbanisme d'une manière plus inclusive en travaillant avec et depuis les communautés d'un lieu donné. Hérité du XXème siècle, les processus de participation, directement liés à la récupération de la ville, apparaissent désormais dans les outils d'urbanisme reconnus par les administrations démocratiques. Une régénération urbaine durable et flexible, exige de travailler avec les habitants, en leur donnant la possibilité de collaborer directement à la création de la ville. Aujourd'hui, ces processus évoluent : de nouveaux outils artistiques et technologiques créatifs émergent, ce qui change le modus operandi. Cependant, il existe actuellement de nombreuses lacunes, avec des processus soi-disant participatifs qui ne garantissent pas une participation réelle des communautés locales. Il semble qu'il existe encore de nombreux doutes et malentendus sur ce qu'est l'architecture participative ainsi que sur ses processus, alors qu'il y a un réel besoin de changement paradigmatique. Cette recherche a pour objectif d'apporter une réponse et une interprétation renouvelée de la participation appliquée à l'architecture et aux espaces urbains. Cette thèse est organisée en trois parties : (1) Rétrospective, (2) Outils et (3) Expériences de cocréation. La première partie (1) consiste en une rétrospective organisée de la participation qui permet de clarifier son concept et de comprendre la diversité de ses facettes. La deuxième partie (2) met en évidence la création d'une méthodologie d'action participative avec des outils nouveaux et traditionnels (technologies de l'information et de la communication, cartographie, big data, outils artistiques et créatifs tels que l'esquisse urbaine, la planification tactique, les sondages d'opinion et les sites collaboratifs, entre autres). Ces instruments ont été classés dans une taxonomie générée par l'analyse de nombreux cas d'études dans lesquelles les véritables acteurs de l'urbanisme -ses utilisateurs et ses utilisatrices- ont conçu ensemble le projet. En combinant les outils, nous devrions pouvoir construire une méthodologie à l'image d'un guide pour les ateliers de cocréation. Enfin, la dernière partie (3) implique des expériences dans lesquelles nos étudiantes et nos étudiants collaborent avec la communauté locale, dans l'espoir d'encourager un changement d'habitudes et de sensibilité. De fait, nous montrerons comment cet élan devrait commencer depuis l'éducation et le monde universitaire, en s'appuyant sur la cocréation artistique comme médium participatif. En d'autres termes, travailler ensemble, de manière créative et positive, pour le bien commun. ; Postprint (published version)

RESUMEN: El calabacín (Cucurbita pepo L.) es una de las hortalizas más importantes a nivel mundial. Esta especie es, en general, poco susceptible a enfermedades causadas por hongos de suelo con síntomas en las raíces y base del tallo, sin embargo, en la primavera 2007 se detectó por primera vez en la provincia de Almería una enfermedad telúrica que causaba marchitez, clorosis, necrosis en la base del tallo, y finalmente la muerte de las plantas. El agente causal fue identificado como Fusarium solani (Mart.) Sacc. f. sp. cucurbitae (Snyder y Hans). Este hongo ascomiceto tiene una especificad parasitaria sobre las cucurbitáceas, y es capaz de infectar en condiciones de campo a melón, sandía, pepino y calabaza. Puede transmitirse a través de las semillas y producir clamidosporas para conservarse en el suelo. La presente tesis doctoral se centra en el estudio de esta forma especializada de Fusarium solani, así como de diversos métodos para su control. De esta forma, en el Capítulo II se comienza con la realización de una prospección fitopatológica en invernaderos de la provincia de Almería, principalmente dedicados al cultivo de calabacín, aunque también se visitaron invernaderos donde se cultivaban pepino, melón o sandía. Una vez confirmada la extensión de la enfermedad a lo largo de la provincia de Almería, se obtuvo una colección de aislados, y se realizó un estudio detallado de una selección de éstos. Para ello en primer lugar se estudió el poder patógeno sobre plantas y frutos de calabacín. Todos los aislados de F. solani estudiados, excepto uno, fueron altamente patógenos causando enfermedad en todas las plantas inoculadas, y una elevada tasa de mortandad. Además, todos los aislados fueron capaces de producir podredumbre en los frutos. A partir de estos resultados se seleccionó un aislado moderadamente agresivo y un aislado muy agresivo, y se estudió su patogenicidad sobre varias especies de cucurbitáceas, así como varias especies pertenecientes a otras familias botánicas ampliamente cultivadas en la provincia de Almería. Los resultados confirmaron la especificidad parasitaria de esta forma especializada sobre las cucurbitáceas, que resultaron todas susceptibles frente a la enfermedad, mientras que el resto de las especies ensayadas no resultaron ser hospedadoras. Se observaron diferencias entre las distintas especies, resultando elpepino significativamente menos susceptible que el resto de cucurbitáceas. Posteriormente, se describieron las principales características morfológicas de F. solani f. sp. cucurbitae, entre las que destacan la producción de fiálidas largas y verticiladas, la formación de macroconidias relativamente largas y finas, así como la producción de largas cadenas de clamidosporas. Por último, a partir de las secuencias del factor de elongación traslación 1-α (EF 1-α) y de la segunda mayor subunidad de la RNA polimerasa II (RPB2) se realizó un estudio filogénico y se confirmó el encuadre de estos aislados dentro del complejo de especies de Fusarium solani (FSSC), mostrando que los aislados forman un grupo monofilético situado en el clado 3 del FSSC. En el Capítulo III se describe la primera detección de la podredumbre de la base del tallo del melón en España; y en el Capítulo IV se describe la primera detección de Phytophthora capsici causando podredumbre de la base del tallo del calabacín en España, una enfermedad de síntomas similares a los causados por F. solani f. sp. cucurbitae. Por último, en el Capítulo V se estudian diversos métodos para el control de la podredumbre de la base del tallo del calabacín. En primer lugar, se investigó la conservación del hongo durante 18 meses en sacos de perlita infestados con el patógeno. Una vez se verificó la capacidad del mismo para sobrevivir en los sacos, se evaluaron varios métodos para el control de la enfermedad. En primer lugar se estudió el control genético mediante la caracterización de la susceptibilidad de una serie de cultivares comerciales de calabacín frente a le enfermedad, quedando patente que todos ellos fueron altamente susceptibles. Se ensayaron diversos productos químicos y formulados microbiológicos, entre los que se detectaron tres sustancias, procloraz, metil-tiofanato y carbendazima como altamente eficaces para su control, aunque su uso no está actualmente autorizado en calabacín en la Unión Europea. Por último, se probó la solarización y biosolarización de invernaderos con sistema de enarenado para la eliminación del inóculo del suelo durante periodos de seis semanas, demostrándose que ambos métodos son eficaces para la eliminación del inóculo del suelo y por tanto son adecuados para prevenir la enfermedad en posteriores cultivos. ABSTRACT: Zucchini (Cucurbita pepo L.) is one of the most important crops produced worldwide. This species is generally not very susceptible to fungal soilborne diseases, however, in the spring of 2007, a telluric disease causing wilt, chlorosis, crown necrosis, and finally the death of the plants was detected for the first time in the province of Almería. The causal agent was identified as Fusarium solani (Mart.) Sacc. f. sp. cucurbitae (Snyder and Hans). This ascomycete fungus has host specificity on cucurbits, being able to infect melons, watermelons, cucumbers and squashes in field conditions. The pathogen may be seed-transmitted and it produces chlamydospores which can survive in the soil after the incidence of the disease. This doctoral thesis has focused on the study of this forma specialis of F. solani, as well as in the assessment of several methods for disease control. Chapter II starts conducting a disease survey in greenhouses within the province of Almería, most of them dedicated to the cultivation of zucchini, although we also visited greenhouses dedicated to the cultivation of cucumber, melon and watermelon. Once the spread of the disease throughout the province of Almería was confirmed, a collection of isolates was obtained, and a detailed study of a selection of them was carried out. For this purpose, their pathogenicity on plants and fruits of zucchini was first studied. All isolates of F. solani studied except one were highly pathogenic to zucchini plants, causing disease in all inoculated plants, and a high mortality rate. In addition, all the isolates were able to produce fruit rot. From these results, a moderately aggressive isolate and a very aggressive one were selected, and their pathogenicity was studied on the main species belonging to the cucurbit family, as well as several species belonging to other botanical families that are widely cultivated in the province of Almeria. The results confirmed the host specificity of this special form on cucurbits, which were all susceptible to the disease, while the rest of the species tested were not hosts of the disease. Differences in susceptibility among the different cucurbits were observed, being cucumber significantly less susceptible to the disease. In addition, the main morphological characters of F. solani f. sp. cucurbitae were described, among which the production of long and verticillate phialides, the formation of relatively long and slender macroconidia, as well as the production of long chlamydospore chains were the most remarkable characters. Finally, from the sequences of the translation elongation factor 1-α (EF 1-α) and the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2), a phylogenetic study was conducted which confirmed the classification of these isolates within the Fusarium solani species complex (FSSC), showing that the isolates form a monophyletic group within clade 3 of the FSSC. Chapter III describes the first detection of the Fusarium crown and foot rot of meloncaused by F. solani f. sp. cucurbitae in Spain; and Chapter IV describes the first detection of Phytophthora capsici causing Crown and root rot in zucchini in Spain, a disease with similar symptoms to those caused by F. solani f. sp. cucurbitae. Finally, Chapter V discusses various methods for controlling the Fusarium crown and foot rot of zucchini. First, the survival of the fungus in infested bags of perlite was assessed for 18 months. Once its ability to survive in the bags was verified, several methods for disease control were studied. First, genetic control was investigated by characterizing the susceptibility of several commercial zucchini cultivars to the disease, confirming that all of them were highly susceptible. Also, various chemical products and microbiological formulations were tested, among which three substances, prochloraz, thiophanate- methyl and carbendazim were highly effective in the control of the disease, although its use is not currently authorized in zucchini in the European Union. Finally, six-week periods of solarization and biosolarization of greenhouses with the so-called enarenado system for elimination of the inoculum in the soil were tested, and their efficacy for reducing the inoculum from the soil was demonstrated, and therefore they can be considered effective tools for preventing a disease outbreak in subsequent crops

The Convention on the Rights of the Child, approved by the General Assembly of the United Nations on 20 November 1989, states in Article 2 that "States Parties shall respect and ensure the rights set forth in the present Convention to each child within their jurisdiction without discrimination of any kind, irrespective of the child's or his or her parent's or legal guardian's race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national, ethnic or social origin, property, disability, birth or other status." Therefore, the child becomes a citizen from birth and is competent to learn from birth. Competent in learning, asking questions, seeking answers, and generating a culture of their own. By affirming the right to be recognised as a citizen of the present, competent, culture-generating, we affirm the strength and extraordinary potential of the child and their right to express it. Infant-toddler centres and preschools are excellent educational places, where to build the paradigm of care and community for the child as citizen. Not all-encompassing places for education, but essential. They help to process, rework and update childhood data, to define childhood and to be defined by them and to define societies. It is not just the care of the child, it is the child's culture, it is the child's look at the world, their generative whys. The great cultural and political "revolution" of the last century – never completely accomplished – is making children active protagonists, leaving them their autonomy, considering them as holders of rights and culture. But now we know that society needs its childhood, too. ; carla.rinaldi@unimore.it ; Fondazione Reggio Children – Centro Loris Malaguzzi (The Reggio Children – Loris Malaguzzi Centre Foundation) ; Acemoglu D., Robinson J. 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La presente tesi di dottorato, sviluppata in collaborazione con il Policlinico San Matteo di Pavia e l'Istituto Zooprofilattico della Lombardia e dell'Emilia Romagna, è incentrata sulla epidemiologia del virus di West Nile (WNV), un patogeno emergente che rappresenta il flavivirus più diffuso a livello globale, essendo presente in tutti i continenti, con la sola esclusione dell'Antartide. WNV rappresenta oggi un importante problema di salute pubblica, potendo causare patologie neurologiche potenzialmente letali soprattutto nelle fasce più fragili della popolazione, come gli anziani e i malati cronici. Ad oggi sono descritti 9 lineages virali, di cui l'1 e il 2 rappresentano i principali patogeni per l'uomo. WNV-1 è diffuso in tutto il Mondo eccetto l'Antartide; WNV-2, isolato inizialmente in Africa Sub-Sahariana e in Madagascar, dal 2011 è comparso in Italia e attualmente sembrerebbe essere l'unico lineage circolante nel nostro territorio. In accordo con i dati epidemiologici riportati dall'ECDC, 1832 casi umani di malattia neuro-invasiva sono stati registrati nel periodo 2011-2017 nei Paesi membri dell'Unione Europea e nelle Nazioni limitrofe. Nel 2018, la trasmissione del virus in Italia e in diversi Paesi europei è iniziata precocemente e ha causato in una sola stagione un numero di casi nell'uomo pari a quelli che si sono verificati nei 7 anni precedenti. Solo nel nostro Paese, da Giugno 2018 sono stati segnalati 577 casi umani confermati di infezione, di cui 230 si sono manifestati nella forma neuro invasiva e 42 sono deceduti. Inoltre, è stata evidenziata una elevata circolazione nelle zanzare e negli uccelli, che rappresentano rispettivamente il vettore e il serbatoio del virus. Non essendo disponibile attualmente alcun vaccino per l'uso nell'uomo, di fondamentale importanza risultano le attività di sorveglianza di questa importante arbovirosi, istituita e regolamentata dal "Piano Nazionale integrato di sorveglianza e risposta ai virus West Nile e Usutu - 2019". E' in questo contesto che si inserisce il presente lavoro, finalizzato alla ricostruzione della storia epidemiologica del virus attraverso l'utilizzo di approcci bioinformatici e filogenetici avanzati. Nel corso di questi tre anni di attività di ricerca sono stati collezionati i ceppi di West Nile circolanti in Italia nelle stagioni estivo-autunnali 2013- 2018; dopo una messa a punto dei protocolli di amplificazione dell'intero genoma virale, questi ceppi sono stati caratterizzati tramite tecnologie di Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). Le sequenze ottenute sono state analizzate alla ricerca di mutanti importanti da un punto di vista epidemiologico o patogenetico, ed è stato condotto uno studio di evoluzione molecolare del genoma virale e delle forze che ne guidano l'evoluzione, in relazione allo spazio e al tempo. Attraverso l'applicazione di modelli filogenetici il nostro gruppo di ricerca ha cercato di ricostruire la storia di WNV-2 dal momento del suo primo isolamento ad oggi, utilizzando i genomi home-made e quelli depositati in banche dati pubbliche alla data di inizio dello studio, corredati di informazioni relative all'anno e al luogo di isolamento. L'utilizzo di un approccio filogeografico ci ha consentito, unicamente sulla base della conoscenza del luogo di isolamento delle sequenze incluse nell'analisi, di ricostruire la località più probabile dei nodi interni del nostro albero, e di stimare la diffusione geografica del virus, in scala di tempo reale. Allo scopo di studiare le dinamiche di propagazione virale sono stati anche utilizzati modelli filo-epidemiologici che permettono di stimare importanti parametri, quali il numero riproduttivo effettivo (Re) e i suoi cambiamenti nel tempo. Interessanti risultati, pubblicati recentemente dal nostro gruppo, sono stati ottenuti sulla circolazione di WNV-2 nel nostro Paese. La ricostruzione filogenetica ha confermato l'ingresso del virus in Italia nel 2008 e ha evidenziato la contemporanea circolazione di due varianti, una delle quali sembrerebbe essersi estinta nel 2013/2014. Inoltre, l'osservazione della esistenza di differenti gruppi significativi all'interno della variante ancora circolante nel 2018, ha suggerito la presenza di ceppi endemici e supporta l'ipotesi che il virus endemico sia mantenuto tra una stagione estiva e l'altra attraverso diversi possibili meccanismi di "overwintering". I metodi utilizzati di filodinamica e filogeografia sono risultati particolarmente adatti alla ricostruzione della storia di infezioni emergenti, come l'arbovirosi da West Nile, potendo fornire informazioni utili alla sorveglianza. Pertanto, ci proponiamo in futuro, al fine di comprendere al meglio l'origine e le modalità di diffusione del virus, di migliorare la qualità dei dati epidemiologici disponibili, attraverso l'implementazione di metodi molecolari, per una più precoce individuazione della circolazione virale, e lo sviluppo di una rete di competenze e di collaborazioni con figure professionali diverse per fare chiarezza sul complesso ciclo epidemiologico del virus. ; The present thesis, developed in collaboration with the Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia and the Zooprophylactic Institute of Lombardia and Emilia Romagna, is focused on the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), an emerging pathogen globally widespread, affecting all continents, with the only exception of Antarctica. Today WNV represents an important public health problem, being able to cause lethal neurological pathologies, especially in the most fragile sections of the population, such as the elderly and chronic patients. To date, 9 viral lineages have been described, whose lineages 1 and 2 represent the main pathogens for human beings. WNV-1 can be found all over the World except for Antarctica; WNV-2, initially isolated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, first appeared in Italy in 2011 and it currently seems to be the only lineage circulating in our territory. In accordance with the epidemiological data recorded by the ECDC, 1832 human cases of this disease were recorded in the period 2011-2017 in several countries of European Union, closer to each other. In 2018, the transmission of the virus in Italy and in other European countries started earlier and in just one season the number of cases in human beings equaled those that occurred in the previous 7 years. In our country alone, since June 2018, 577 infection cases in humans had been reported, with 230 neuro-invasive events and a total of 42 deaths. Furthermore, there was evidence of high viral circulation in mosquitoes and birds that represent respectively the vector and the virus reservoir. Since no vaccine is currently available for use in humans, surveillance activities, established and regulated by the "Integrated National Surveillance and Response Plan to West Nile and Usutu Virus - 2019", are of main importance. It is in this context that this work is inserted, aiming at reconstructing the epidemiological history of the virus through the use of advanced bioinformatic and phylogenetic approaches. During these three years of research, the West Nile strains circulating in Italy in the summer-autumn seasons between 2013 and 2018 were collected; after the optimization of the amplification protocols of the entire viral genome, these strains were characterized by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) technologies. The sequences obtained were analyzed in order to search important mutants from an epidemiological or pathogenetic point of view; moreover a study of molecular evolution of the viral genome and the forces that guide its evolution, has been done in relation to space and time. Through the application of phylogenetic models our research group tried to reconstruct the history of WNV-2 from the time of its first isolation to the present, using the home-made genomes and those deposited in public databases at the beginning of the study, accompanied by information relating to the year and place of isolation. The use of a phylogeographic approach allowed us, on the basis of the knowledge of the place of isolation of the sequences included in the analysis, to reconstruct the most probable location of the internal nodes of our tree, and to estimate the geographical spread of the virus, in real time scale. In order to study the dynamics of viral propagation, phylo-epidemiological models have also been used which has allowed us to estimate important parameters such as the actual reproductive number (Re) and its changes over time. Interesting results, recently published by our group, have been obtained on the circulation of WNV-2 in our country. The phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the entry of the virus in Italy in 2008 and highlighted the simultaneous circulation of two variants, one of which apparently became extinct in 2013–2014 Furthermore, the observation of the existence of different significant groups within the variant still circulating in 2018, suggested the presence of endemic strains and supports the hypothesis that the endemic virus is maintained alive between one summer season and another through different possible overwintering mechanisms. The methods used in philodynamics and phylogeography are particularly suitable for the reconstruction of the history of emerging infections, such as arbovirosis like West Nile virus, providing useful information for surveillance. Therefore, in the future, in order to better understand the origin and the spread of the virus, we intend to improve the quality of epidemiological data available through the implementation of molecular methods, for an earlier identification of the viral circulation, and the development of a network of skills and collaborations with different professional figures. In this way we will able to clarify the complex epidemiological cycle of the virus.