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This study analysed the short- and long-term impacts of fiscal consolidation on social sector spending in Indian economy and thereby on human capital. Using autoregressive distributed lag framework, the study found that fiscal adjustments have significant potential to undermine the short- and long-run spending in human capital. A fiscal adjustment aimed at strengthening fiscal position of the Indian economy can have adverse impacts on the growth rate of income. Lower-income growth will imply increased constraint on part of the government to spend in public utilities like education and health. Similarly, a fiscal adjustment based on slashing government spending can adversely impact both short- and long-term welfare spending as these spendings are mainly financed by deficits. The policymakers while framing the design of a consolidation programme need to take extra precaution as far as the composition of these adjustments are concerned. Moreover, there is need of legislate aimed at changing the nature of welfare spending from discretionary to compulsory.

Last global financial crisis has led to massive fiscal stimulation actions in most of developed countries which resulted in significant increase of their public debt. For many economists current level of debt in case of many highly developed countries is coming up to unsustainable level or at least level that has negative consequences on the long term growth. This can be also said about Eurozone or wider EU economies. This factors in near future will force many EU countries to adopt much stricter middle and long term fiscal policy that will be necessary for deleveraging process. In this context the aim of the research is to check whether can one find non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Eurozone countries in last decade. If the answer is positive, then could these non-Keynesian effects be significant developing factor in case of Eurozone countries. The third scientific question concentrates on the ways the fiscal consolidations were implemented and the potential influence of consolidations strategies on short term growth. The research is based on European Commission and Eurostat fiscal and macroeconomic data for Eurozone countries for the years 1995-2013. In the research the econometric dynamic panel model based on the concept of conditional convergence was applied. As a complementary method qualitative analysis of cases of significant contractions was made with the concentration on the differences between expansionary thus non-Keynesian cases and conventional Keynesian cases of fiscal contractions. The research results give some arguments for existence of fiscal transitions channels leading to non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, which in the same time can be a factor of conditional convergence. Thus in case of proper construction of fiscal consolidations polices these factors can be helpful in future deleverage process.

Last global financial crisis has led to massive fiscal stimulation actions in most of developed countries which resulted in significant increase of their public debt. For many economists current level of debt in case of many highly developed countries is coming up to unsustainable level or at least level that has negative consequences on the long term growth. This can be also said about Eurozone or wider EU economies. This factors in near future will force many EU countries to adopt much stricter middle and long term fiscal policy that will be necessary for deleveraging process. In this context the aim of the research is to check whether can one find non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Eurozone countries in last decade. If the answer is positive, then could these non-Keynesian effects be significant developing factor in case of Eurozone countries. The third scientific question concentrates on the ways the fiscal consolidations were implemented and the potential influence of consolidations strategies on short term growth. The research is based on European Commission and Eurostat fiscal and macroeconomic data for Eurozone countries for the years 1995-2013. In the research the econometric dynamic panel model based on the concept of conditional convergence was applied. As a complementary method qualitative analysis of cases of significant contractions was made with the concentration on the differences between expansionary thus non-Keynesian cases and conventional Keynesian cases of fiscal contractions. The research results give some arguments for existence of fiscal transitions channels leading to non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, which in the same time can be a factor of conditional convergence. Thus in case of proper construction of fiscal consolidations polices these factors can be helpful in future deleverage process.

This paper is closed access until 11 September 2019. ; This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibility of both 'expansionary fiscal contractions' (austerity increasing output) and 'fiscal free lunches' (expansions reducing government debt), arguments supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively, in recent debates. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible to be expansionary; and stimulus temporary, responsive, and well‐targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither are likely, especially during periods of economic distress.

This paper investigates how different factors, such as size, duration and composition of fiscal changes, can alter the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption. Using an unbalanced panel of 19 OECD countries during the period 1960-2000, it is found that transfer changes are believed to be permanent during fiscal contractions. Hence, it is more likely that an expansionary fiscal contraction will occur if the government cuts transfers. This result highlights the importance of taking into account specific circumstances, such as the debt and deficit position, when studying expansionary fiscal contractions. The results also indicate that expansionary fiscal contractions are likely to come at a considerable social cost. Adapted from the source document.

In this paper, we study the effects of fiscal policy during different fiscal policy regimes. More specifically, we investigate how different factors, such as size, duration and composition of fiscal changes, can alter the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption. Using an unbalanced panel of 19 OECD countries during the period 1960-2000, we find that transfer changes are believed to be permanent during fiscal contractions. Hence, it is more likely that an expansionary fiscal contraction will occur if the government cuts transfers. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for specific circumstances, such as the debt and deficit position, when studying expansionary fiscal contractions. The results also indicate that expansionary fiscal contractions are likely to come at a considerable social cost.

The possibility of the so called "non-Keynesian" was illustrated by several fiscal episodes in Europe during the last two decades, giving rise to a growing body of both theoretical and empirical literature. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a simple two period model for private consumption is presented in order to explain the possibility of both Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, the main feature being the relation between interest rate and taxes and the existence of rationed consumers. Second, and in order to evaluate the empirical evidence for Europe, panel data models for private consumption are estimated for the EU-15 countries, using annual data over the period 1970 to 1999. The estimation results for the 15 EU countries show some evidence that fiscal policy has the standard Keynesian effects when there are no fiscal adjustments. However, in the presence of fiscal adjustments the traditional Keynesian effects may become non-Keynesian. This reversion occurs basically when the fiscal adjustment is a contractionary one, and is virtually unimportant when the adjustment is a fiscal expansion, revealing therefore some asymmetric consequences of fiscal policy.

A small but growing body of literature searches for evidence of non‐Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short‐run economic activity. This article continues that research effort by systematically examining the effects (if any) of unusual fiscal events—either non‐Keynesian results within a Keynesian model or Keynesian results within a neoclassical model—on short‐run economic activity. The authors examine this issue within three separate models—a St. Louis equation, a Hall‐type consumption equation, and a growth accounting equation. The empirical findings do not provide strong systematic support for the view that unusually large fiscal contractions/expansions reverse the effects of normal fiscal events. Moreover, the authors find only limited evidence that trigger points are empirically important.

This paper studies the determinants and chaIlllels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth. Using data from a panel of OECD countries, the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition. The rate of growth of output matters too, but higher GDP growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization. In contrast, whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal manoeuvre. In particular, stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher GDP growth rates. The effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents' expectations of future fiscal policy. Finally, the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations.

Although its role has been overlooked by monetary historians, a two-cent tax on bank checks effective from June 1932 through December 1934 appears to have been an important contributing factor to that period's severe monetary contraction. According to the estimates in this article, the currency–demand deposit ratio was about 15 percent higher, and the M1 money stock about 12 percent smaller, ceteris paribus, than each would have been without the tax. The contractionary consequences had in fact been anticipated by many legislators who were, nevertheless, unable to prevent the measure from being included in the Revenue Act of 1932.