Suchergebnisse

[eng] The motivation of this dissertation is multi-fold. Firstly, regional income disparity is widely considered to be a central concern among economists and policy makers. This responds to many facts. Usually, when regional specialisation takes place, only a few regions are able to attract modern industrial activity and high value-added services, causing an increase in regional inequality over the long term, as these activities generally enjoy increasing returns (which, in turn, makes this pattern very difficult to be reversed). Moreover, regional inequality is, all things being equal, highly correlated to inequality among individuals, which is also a very relevant issue for economists and policy makers. Lastly, regional inequality has high political relevance because it may be a source of political instability, which can result in social and economic crisis. Therefore, there is a great deal of scientific literature concerned with the evolution and causes of regional inequality. The interest in regional inequality is shared by the Economic History literature, especially by that based on quantitative methods, which has developed a number of innovative research strategies to analyse the main forces behind the long-term evolution of regional inequality. However, this line of research has mainly focused on high-income industrialised economies, such as the US and some Western European countries, and there is still a significant gap in our knowledge of the long-term trends of regional inequality in low and middle-income economies. This leads to the second motivation of this project. Even though there has been some recent work on long-term regional inequality in middle and low-income economies, this is still a rather understudied field, where new hypotheses and interpretations –different from those developed for the industrialised countries– need to be developed. For instance, in developing countries, industrial location and agglomeration economies may not have had such a central role as drivers of regional income disparities. On the contrary, the influence of institutions and the location of natural resources may be much stronger. Likewise, dual economic structures (i.e., the coexistence of modern and traditional economic sectors) are much more common in developing countries than in industrialized economies. All this may make it necessary to adopt different research strategies in the analysis of regional disparities in developing countries. The study of Mexican regional inequality is representative of middle-income economies, where economic growth has had different roots and dynamics than in industrialised countries. In addition, Mexico has some characteristics that make it a particularly interesting case study. While the northern regions in Mexico share a huge border with the biggest world market, the US, the southern ones limit with one of the poorest region in the world, Central America. Also, it is a case in which very different forces have affected the long-term evolution of regional income inequality, such as factor endowments, factor mobility, natural resources, structural change, market potential and regional and development policies, which have affected regional disparities with varying intensity across the different periods of the late modern history of Mexico. Finally, the last motivation of this research lies beyond the Economic History frontiers. Mexico is living a period of increasing regional divergence, according to different indicators. Although this problem has been object of harsh public debate between the mid 20th century and the present (actually, the current federal government has announced a huge program to encourage economic growth in the poorest regions) almost no progress has been reached. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), in 2010 the GDP per capita of the richest state was 5.2 times as high as in the poorest state. The National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) estimates that 43 per cent of the total population living in extreme poverty in 2010 were located in 4 southern states. These figures stand out globally, not only in comparison to high-income countries but also to most middle and low-incomes economies. In fact, the ECLAC (2014: 73) has recently pointed out that Mexico has the second highest income ratio between the richest and the poorest regions among Latin American countries, only surpassed by Ecuador. In this regard, although the Mexican economy has a deep-rooted and historically persistent high regional inequality, the literature on regional disparities has focused mainly on the period from the 1980s and the end of ISI policies. By contrast, very little research has been done for the State-led industrialisation period (1930-1980), and none for the previous years of the First Globalisation. This dissertation aims to provide new quantitative evidence on the long-term evolution of Mexican regional income inequality, covering the period from 1895 to 2010. With this research, we hope to contribute both to the literature on Mexico and to the international debate on the main forces that explain the historical evolution of regional inequality. ; [spa] El objetivo de esta tesis es ofrecer nueva evidencia cuantitativa sobre la evolución de las desigualdades regionales en México en el largo plazo (1895-2010). Con esta investigación se espera contribuir al debate de la literatura internacional sobre las principales fuerzas que explican la evolución histórica de las desigualdades regionales. El estudio de las desigualdades regionales en México es representativo de las economías de niveles medios de ingreso, en las cuales el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo ha tenido una ruta distinta a las economías industrializadas. En el caso mexicano, distintos determinantes han afectado la evolución de las desigualdades regionales, como la dotación de recursos naturales, la movilidad de factores de producción, el cambio estructural, el potencial de mercado, entre otros. En este sentido, los principales resultados de esta tesis son los siguientes. La evolución de las desigualdades regionales en México ha seguido una forma de 'N' en el largo plazo, la cual está estrechamente vinculada a las distintas estrategias de crecimiento económico adoptadas en México desde finales del siglo XIX. Así, durante el periodo del modelo agro-exportador (1895-1930), y el periodo reciente de apertura económica (1980-2010), las desigualdades regionales han incrementado, mientras que, durante el periodo de la IDE (1940-1980), las desigualdades regionales experimentaron una fase de convergencia. La primera fase de divergencia (1895-1930) estuvo liderada por los estados ricos volviéndose más ricos, mientras que los estados pobres se volvieron aún más pobres respecto a la media nacional de ingresos. El periodo de convergencia subsecuente estuvo caracterizado por la caída relativa de los estados ricos hacia la media nacional. Por último, durante el último periodo apertura económica de 1980 a 2010, la divergencia regional ha estado guiada por el mayor dinamismo económico de algunas regiones en particular del centro y norte del país, y en particular, de la Ciudad de México. El análisis de clúster espacial muestra que el único clúster que aparece constante durante todo el periodo de estudio es el de los países con bajos niveles de ingreso del sur del país. Los principales determinantes detrás de los cambios de las tendencias de las desigualdades regionales en el largo plazo han cambiado en cada periodo histórico. Durante la primera globalización, un desigual proceso de cambio estructural a nivel espacial explica el incremento de las desigualdades regionales. Aquellas regiones que pudieron beneficiarse de la integración de los mercados internacional lograron una tasa mayor de cambio estructural, mayor ratios de capital-trabajo y, por consiguiente, mayores tasas de crecimiento de la productividad laboral. Por otra parte, la convergencia experimentada de 1940 a 1980 se explica por un fuerte proceso de movilidad de factores (mano de obra) entre las regiones de México. Por último, el periodo de divergencia experimentado a partir de 1980, ha estado determinado por una distribución espacial desigual de la IED (concentrada en la Ciudad de México y los estados del norte del país), y la concentración espacial de los servicios de alto valor agregado (en la Ciudad de México).

In his seminal work on national development and regional inequality, Williamson (1965) predicts that regional income inequality will pass through three distinct phases as a nation moves through the early development stages to maturity. In the early stages of economic development, regional income inequality will increase, largely because of the disequilibrating effects of factor mobility. This will be followed by a period of stability, characterized by a relatively high level of inequality between regions. Finally, a lessening of regional inequality will set in as the national economy matures and equilibrating forces take effect. This overall process, if plotted against national economic development, will result in a bell-shaped or inverted U-shapes curve. The early stages of development are also associated with rapid urbanization, though with a shift toward population dispersion as the economy matures. Other stylized facts in the process of development include industrialization, demographic transition, and changing inequality of income among population subgroups (Alonso, 1980). The concentration of population in and around large cities is usually accompanied by an increase in regional income inequality. Some researchers have argued that this population concentration and concurrent increase in regional inequality does not impede economic development, and may in fact favor it. Nonetheless, many national governments have introduced policies of balanced regional development. The main objective of this paper is to measure regional income inequality in the post-war Japan using Williamson's weighted coefficient of variation. Based on prefectural population and GDP data, it investigates longer-term trends in regional income inequality. A sectoral decomposition analysis is also performed to examine the extent to which each industrial sector contributes to the overall weighted coefficient of variation. We hope to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between national development, industrialization, and regional inequalities in the post-war Japan.

The point of departure of this dissertation is the observation that, over the entire period for which statistics are available, regional differences in income per capita in Canada have remained unchanged. Five commonly recognized regions of the country are considered: the Maritimes, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairie Provinces, and British Columbia. Official statistical series show that the relative levels of income per capita in the five regions have been about the same in recent years as in the late 1920's, when the series begins. In a world of continuous change there may be no single expected trend of regional income differentials, but convergence does seem to be a common pattern among the industrially advanced nations of the world.2 The Canadian experience is sufficiently interesting to call for further examination. The dissertation summarized here begins this examination in two ways: estimates of regional per capita income are made for some years prior to the beginning of the official series and a preliminary examination of some important factors influencing regional income differences is begun.

Reducing regional inequality was one of the key means of promoting the "harmonious development" within Europe envisioned in the EEC Treaty of 1957. The pursuit of "economic, social and territorial cohesion" through ever closer regional and national harmonisation was also proclaimed in the 2007 Lisbon Treaty, but deepening European integration has not always been matched with convergence in living standards between sub-national regions. The gap between poorer and richer areas increased during the last economic crisis even in some developed economies, and the income discrepancy between richer and poorer regions is likely to widen further as government-spending cuts disproportionately hurt less prosperous regions. Regional inequalities can be measured in many ways - the extent of inequality may be mapped in terms of demography, income and wealth, labour markets, and education and skills. The main objective of this presentation is to analyse regional inequalities in terms of household income distribution. The empirical evidence comes from the GUS, Istat and Bank of Italy databases and has been analysed by means of inequality and poverty indices calculated at NUTS 1 and NUTS 2 levels. In order to work out the intraregional and inter- regional contributions to the overall inequality, the Gini index decomposition has been applied. While presenting similar levels of income concentration, Poland and Italy turned out to follow different regional inequality patterns.

This work investigates convergence among regions of Turkey with neoclassical exogenous growth perspective. According to results, it can be stated that there is a tendency of convergence among the regions of Turkey. However, there is an important crisis (2008 crisis) in the investigation period of this study in which the tendency of convergence increases. Besides, descriptive statistics show that during the crisis, the speed of convergence increases, however, apart from crisis and post-crisis, excess capacity periods it is impossible to state that there is convergence among regions of Turkey. On the other side, descriptive statistics show that periods without economic crisis also do not indicate divergence. Therefore, it cannot be stated that there is divergence or convergence among regions of Turkey for the investigation period of this study but the main conclusion is that crisis has a positive impact with respect to closing income differences among regions.

Bu tez Türkiye bölgelerinin yakınsamasını neoklasik dışsal büyüme modeli ve içsel büyüme modeli çerçevesinde açıklayıcı istatistiklerden de faydalanarak analiz etmektedir. Dışsal model kısmının sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de bölgeler arasında bir yakınsama olduğu söylenebilir. Ancak inceleme döneminde yakınsama eğilimin arttığı önemli bir kriz (2008 krizi) yer almaktadır. Ayrıca açıklayıcı istatistikler de kriz döneminde yakınsama hızının arttığını göstermiştir. Ancak kriz dönemi dışında Türkiye'de bölgeler arası bir yakınsamanın veya ıraksamanın olduğunu söylemek mümkün değildir. Bu nedenle, çıkarılan ana sonuç, kriz döneminin bölgesel gelir farklılıklarını kapatma açısından pozitif bir etki yaptığıdır. Buna ek olarak, içsel model kısmında AR-GE personelinin toplam istihdamdaki güncel payı ile bölgelerin büyümesine negatif bir etki yaptığı bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, AR-GE personelinin oranını arttırmaya dayanan bir yakalama stratejisinin de bölgelerin büyümesine olumsuz bir eti yaptığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bunun yanında, incelme döneminde doğu bölgesi batı bölgesinden daha fazla büyüdüğü ve AR-GE personelinin etkisi doğu bölgesi için daha negatif olduğu için toplam istihdamdaki AR-GE personel oranının artması bölgeler arası büyüme farklılıklarını kapatmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, bölgenin AR-GE personelinin toplam istihdamdaki payı ile ekonomik büyümesi arasında U-şeklinde bir ilişki saptanmıştır. Ancak yakınsama konusunda, görece zengin batının AR-GE personelinden pozitif etki almaya daha yakın olması ve görece fakir doğunun düşük AR-GE personel payı ile AR-GE personelinden daha negatif etkilenmesi, doğu bölgesinin AR-GE personeli payını arttırmaya yönelik bir yakalama stratejisinin bölgesel gelir farklılıklarını kapatamayacağını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, doğu bölgesi AR-GE personelinden pozitif etki almaya çok uzaktır. Bu nedenle, eğer doğu bölgesinde AR-GE personel payını arttırmaya yönelik bir yakalama politikası üzerinde ısrar edilirse bu yakınsama yerine ıraksamaya sebebiyet verebilir. --- This thesis analyzes convergence among regions of Turkey with neoclassical exogenous growth perspective and endogenous growth perspective incorporating with descriptive statistics. According to results obtained from exogenous model part, there is a tendency of convergence among regions of Turkey. However, there is an important crisis (2008 crisis) in the investigation period in which the tendency of convergence increases. Besides, descriptive statistics show that during the crisis, the speed of convergence increases, however, apart from crisis period it is impossible to state that there is convergence or divergence among regions of Turkey. Therefore, the main conclusion is that crisis has a positive impact on closing income differences among regions. Furthermore, in endogenous model section, it is found that R&D personnel has negative impact on regions' economic growth with its current share in total employment. Moreover, catch-up strategy based on increasing the ratio of R&D personnel also has negative impact on regions' economic growth. Besides, increasing the share of R&D personnel in total employment decreases the growth differences between regions by affecting east region more negatively since in the investigation period east region grows more than west region. On the other side, U-shaped relation between the share of R&D personnel in total employment and economic growth is found. However, when it comes to convergence issue, since rich west is closer to take a positive effect from R&D personnel and with relatively low share of R&D personnel the economic growth of east region is more negatively affected by R&D personnel, by applying a strategy based on increasing the share of R&D personnel, east region cannot close the income differences. Moreover, east region is far away from taking positive effect from R&D personnel so that convergence policy insists on increasing the share of R&D personnel in east region may cause divergence rather than convergence.

Bu tez Türkiye bölgelerinin yakınsamasını neoklasik dışsal büyüme modeli ve içsel büyüme modeli çerçevesinde açıklayıcı istatistiklerden de faydalanarak analiz etmektedir. Dışsal model kısmının sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de bölgeler arasında bir yakınsama olduğu söylenebilir. Ancak inceleme döneminde yakınsama eğilimin arttığı önemli bir kriz (2008 krizi) yer almaktadır. Ayrıca açıklayıcı istatistikler de kriz döneminde yakınsama hızının arttığını göstermiştir. Ancak kriz dönemi dışında Türkiye'de bölgeler arası bir yakınsamanın veya ıraksamanın olduğunu söylemek mümkün değildir. Bu nedenle, çıkarılan ana sonuç, kriz döneminin bölgesel gelir farklılıklarını kapatma açısından pozitif bir etki yaptığıdır. Buna ek olarak, içsel model kısmında AR-GE personelinin toplam istihdamdaki güncel payı ile bölgelerin büyümesine negatif bir etki yaptığı bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, AR-GE personelinin oranını arttırmaya dayanan bir yakalama stratejisinin de bölgelerin büyümesine olumsuz bir eti yaptığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bunun yanında, incelme döneminde doğu bölgesi batı bölgesinden daha fazla büyüdüğü ve AR-GE personelinin etkisi doğu bölgesi için daha negatif olduğu için toplam istihdamdaki AR-GE personel oranının artması bölgeler arası büyüme farklılıklarını kapatmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, bölgenin AR-GE personelinin toplam istihdamdaki payı ile ekonomik büyümesi arasında U-şeklinde bir ilişki saptanmıştır. Ancak yakınsama konusunda, görece zengin batının AR-GE personelinden pozitif etki almaya daha yakın olması ve görece fakir doğunun düşük AR-GE personel payı ile AR-GE personelinden daha negatif etkilenmesi, doğu bölgesinin AR-GE personeli payını arttırmaya yönelik bir yakalama stratejisinin bölgesel gelir farklılıklarını kapatamayacağını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, doğu bölgesi AR-GE personelinden pozitif etki almaya çok uzaktır. Bu nedenle, eğer doğu bölgesinde AR-GE personel payını arttırmaya yönelik bir yakalama politikası üzerinde ısrar edilirse bu yakınsama yerine ıraksamaya sebebiyet verebilir. --- This thesis analyzes convergence among regions of Turkey with neoclassical exogenous growth perspective and endogenous growth perspective incorporating with descriptive statistics. According to results obtained from exogenous model part, there is a tendency of convergence among regions of Turkey. However, there is an important crisis (2008 crisis) in the investigation period in which the tendency of convergence increases. Besides, descriptive statistics show that during the crisis, the speed of convergence increases, however, apart from crisis period it is impossible to state that there is convergence or divergence among regions of Turkey. Therefore, the main conclusion is that crisis has a positive impact on closing income differences among regions. Furthermore, in endogenous model section, it is found that R&D personnel has negative impact on regions' economic growth with its current share in total employment. Moreover, catch-up strategy based on increasing the ratio of R&D personnel also has negative impact on regions' economic growth. Besides, increasing the share of R&D personnel in total employment decreases the growth differences between regions by affecting east region more negatively since in the investigation period east region grows more than west region. On the other side, U-shaped relation between the share of R&D personnel in total employment and economic growth is found. However, when it comes to convergence issue, since rich west is closer to take a positive effect from R&D personnel and with relatively low share of R&D personnel the economic growth of east region is more negatively affected by R&D personnel, by applying a strategy based on increasing the share of R&D personnel, east region cannot close the income differences. Moreover, east region is far away from taking positive effect from R&D personnel so that convergence policy insists on increasing the share of R&D personnel in east region may cause divergence rather than convergence.

In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in the phenomenon of economic growth. The interest was sparked by the introduction of new models by Paul Romer and Robert Lucas. The neoclassical Solow growth model, despite its influence over the years, has a fundamental flaw: growth is determined exogenously. The new models by Romer and Lucas solve for the growth rate of the economy endogenously. In these models, due to spillovers in capital or in human capital, growth can go on indefinitely. In a later work, Romer argued that increasing returns are necessary elements in models of technological innovations, which in turn form the foundation for endogenous growth models. The theoretical innovations in modeling growth stimulated a significant body of empirical work.

AbstractThe overall rise in inequality in the USA since 1980 has been matched by a rise in inequality between places; local and regional development policies aimed at reversing this polarisation have seen limited success. We propose an explanation for the spatial polarisation of prosperity and the failure of the policies to remedy it. Our explanation is based on the interaction of monopoly power, agglomeration economies in technology clusters and the power of financial sector actors over non-financial firms—all phenomena characteristic of the post-1980 economy. We review evidence for each of these elements and propose some causal relationships between them, as an outline of an ongoing research programme.