Confidence in Beliefs and Rational Decision Making
In: HEC Paris Research Paper No. ECO/SCD-2018-1258
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In: HEC Paris Research Paper No. ECO/SCD-2018-1258
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Working paper
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SSRN
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 26, Heft 6, S. 1721-1728
ISSN: 1539-6924
Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes‐Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.
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SSRN
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In: A publication of the Mershon Center for Education in National Security
World Affairs Online
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