Honoring excellence in anticipatory anthropology
In: Futures, Band 35, Heft 5, S. 521-527
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In: Futures, Band 35, Heft 5, S. 521-527
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 35, Heft 5, S. 521-528
ISSN: 0016-3287
In: American journal of international law: AJIL, Band 93, Heft 4, S. 834-841
ISSN: 2161-7953
The intervention by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Kosovo during the spring of 1999 aroused controversy at the time and still provokes questions about the legality of the action, its precedential effect, and procedures for developing new international law. The participants faced a legal and moral dilemma between international law prohibitions on the use of force and the goal of preventing or stopping widespread grave violations of international human rights. This commentary seeks to chart a course for the future in light of the current legal and moral environment. Many individuals on all sides of the Kosovo crisis maintained the highest standards of law and morality. Regrettably, others, particularly political leaders, fell short of their moral or legal obligations or both. Of the latter, the leadership of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) headed by Slobodan Milosevic stands out. The FRY committed grave international crimes against the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. However, both the ethnic Albanians and the Serbs in Kosovo engaged in aggressive and brutal actions against each other and both were at fault, legally and morally. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) has also committed terrorist and other brutal acts against the Yugoslav Serbs and the FRY forces. As for the United Nations, though perhaps not morally at fault, it did not address the Kosovo problem in a timely and effective manner, as is its responsibility. Indisputably, the NATO intervention through its bombing campaign violated the U.N. Charter and international law. As a result, the intervention risked destabilizing the international rule of law that prohibits a state or group of states from intervening by the use of force in another state, absent authorization by the U.N. Security Council or a situation of self-defense. The NATO actions, regardless of how well-intentioned, constitute an unfortunate precedent for states to use force to suppress the commission of international crimes in other states--grounds that easily can be and ...
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In: Families in society: the journal of contemporary human services, Band 57, Heft 7, S. 458-465
ISSN: 1945-1350
A research study is concerned with the total set of cognitive, affective, cutural, and social reactions to expected death as felt by patient and family
In: Foresight, Band 11, Heft 4, S. 14-32
In: Intelligence and Security Informatics; Studies in Computational Intelligence, S. 97-119
In: Cosmos+Taxis 11 #1+2 2023 pp. 54-70
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Background: The violence problem against children is a complex problem that requires comprehensive, holistic and integrated treatment. Children are vulnerable groups both physically and fulfilment rights. Their existence depends on parent care and caregiver. Sometimes, their weakness used by other to commit violence. Violations can be identified physically, emotionally and sexually maltreatment. Objective: To formulate parent Anticipatory guidance for sexual violence against children through parent experience. Method: This study used a qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. Participants were parents whose children were victims or not of sexual violence, 5 participant were selected by purposive sampling in Malang district. Results: 1). The Government's Rapid Response Among the Dilemmas of Community Stigma, 2) Preventing Violence by Opening Discussion Room with Children, 3) Victim's Parents Hope Children be Able to Face the Future, 4). Involving Family and Environment in the Prevention of Sexual Violence in Children, 5). Rehabilitation of Victims of Sexual Violence in Children Considering the Victim's Condition. Conclusion: Anticipatory guidence of children associated with community stigma and the emergence feelings of shame. Openness communication and discussion with children and environmental involvement in supporting the prevention of sexual violence against children is very important to reduced the number of cases of sexual violence against children in the future. ; Background: The violence problem against children is a complex problem that requires comprehensive, holistic and integrated treatment. Children are vulnerable groups both physically and fulfilment rights. Their existence depends on parent care and caregiver. Sometimes, their weakness used by other to commit violence. Violations can be identified physically, emotionally and sexually maltreatment. Objective: To formulate parent Anticipatory guidance for sexual violence against children through parent experience. Method: This study used a qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. Participants were parents whose children were victims or not of sexual violence, 5 participant were selected by purposive sampling in Malang district. Results: 1). The Government's Rapid Response Among the Dilemmas of Community Stigma, 2) Preventing Violence by Opening Discussion Room with Children, 3) Victim's Parents Hope Children be Able to Face the Future, 4). Involving Family and Environment in the Prevention of Sexual Violence in Children, 5). Rehabilitation of Victims of Sexual Violence in Children Considering the Victim's Condition. Conclusion: Anticipatory guidence of children associated with community stigma and the emergence feelings of shame. Openness communication and discussion with children and environmental involvement in supporting the prevention of sexual violence against children is very important to reduced the number of cases of sexual violence against children in the future.
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This article presents the ethical dilemma related to under what circumstances vulnerabilities should be disclosed. Vulnerabilities exist in hardware and software, and can be as a consequence of programming errors or design flaws. Threat actors can exploit these vulnerabilities to gain otherwise unintended access to information systems, resources and/or stored information. In other words, they can be used to impact the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information in information systems. As a result, various types of vulnerabilities are highly sought after since they enable this type of access. The most highly sought are so-called "zero-day"-vulnerabilities. These are vulnerabilities that exist but are unknown, and when exploited, enable one way of entry into a system that is not thought possible. This is also why zero-day vulnerabilities are very popular among criminal organizations, states and state-sponsored advanced persistent threats. The other side of the coin is when a state identifies a zero-day, and ends up in the ethical dilemma of whether to release the news and inform the vendor to patch it, i.e. close the vulnerability, or to use it for offensive or intelligence purposes. This article employs these distinctions to apply anticipatory ethics in the Stuxnet-case. Stuxnet was a computer software that was allegedly developed by the U.S. together with Israel to disrupt Iran's development of uranium for their nuclear program. More exactly, it was developed to disable the uranium centrifuges used to enrich uranium. To achieve this, Stuxnet exploited four zero-day vulnerabilities and, according to some experts, managed to delay Iran's nuclear program by one to two-years, forcing them to the negotiation table. Using vulnerabilities like zero-days presents opportunities but also risks. The results of the application of anticipatory ethics to the Stuxnet case are then compared with the "Osirak"-case and the "al-Kibar"-case. Osirak was the nuclear reactor in Iraq and was bombed in 1981; al-Kibar was the nuclear reactor being built up in Syria, also bombed in 2007.
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In: Review of policy research, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 302-309
ISSN: 1541-1338
Anticipatory policy is premised on the need to respond to warnings about future threats and opportunities by positive political action. This paper discusses the notion of anticipatory policy by using three cases from ocean policy, deepwater ports, ocean thermal energy conversion, and deep seabed mining. Such policies tend to be extremely vulnerable to changes in the economic and political environments within which they operate. In order to understand how such policies succeed or fail requires that studies of policy implementation decades, not just several years. Although there has been a move in this direction in assessing social welfare policies, this approach has been far less evident in the natural resources area.
In: Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 72-85
ISSN: 1465-9832
PurposeWhen coping with complex, but also possibly disruptive and open‐ended social dynamics, the anticipatory system idea, which was developed by Rosen in the realm of physical and biological system observation, remains a reference framework, but one that may need to be reinforced by other theoretical considerations. This paper aims at using a debate that took place in a specific foresight discussion arena on early detection and weak signal analysis, as a constructive epistemic detour to eventually contribute to such a reinforcement of Rosen's anticipatory system proposal.Design/methodology/approachThe author aims at revisiting Rosen's framework with stimulating inputs drawing upon the early detection debates, by first assessing the original concepts brought up by Ansoff in the 1970s and 1980s and its further enhancements by contemporary scholars. A rather constructivist approach is then developed to weak signal analysis, aiming at emphasising the need, in analytical situations involving social system features, for reflexive stages and capacities. Bearing this requirement in mind, the productive value of the "framing" and "meta‐framing" notions is explored, in order to apply them to Rosen's anticipatory systems and possibly contribute to enriching his original concept.FindingsHow effective the framing and meta‐framing couple can be for a series of anticipatory issues is described in a detailed manner and, then more specifically, Rosen's anticipatory system concept is revisited in the light of those inputs, aiming at putting into perspective new options for research and anticipation activities in general.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper is essentially conceptual and based on a rich but disputable detour by early detection and weak analysis issues so as to emphasise key reflexive references and method. However, most of this material is taken from domains rather untypical of Rosennean debates and in addition would need to be completed by a series of supportive cases, but that is beyond the scope and scale of this paper.Practical implicationsThe paper sets clear distinctions and boundaries for when and when not to apply reflexive steps in a foresight exercise, including in the context of rolling out a Rosen type of approach. Research decision making both in the corporate and policy‐making contexts can benefit from such clues and supportive framework conditions.Social implicationsSocial systems are typically complex and involve multiple perspectives and viewpoints; they concern a series of major challenges to be coped with locally or more globally, at environmental, political, cultural or technological level, and in that category of anticipatory endeavor, the framing/meta‐framing epistemic couple may be of great usefulness.Originality/valueAlthough rather conceptual, the detour proposed by the paper aims at creating a reflexive distance and enriched capability to evaluate one's potential biases and blind spots in anticipatory modelling activities.
In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2019-042/I
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Working paper
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In: Law & policy, Band 43, Heft 1, S. 73-91
ISSN: 1467-9930
AbstractThis article lays the groundwork for a new approach to understanding how law engages with the future, based on the social science theory and practice of anticipation. Anticipation, as depicted by an extensive interdisciplinary literature, encourages a shift in attention from the future as a matter solely of probability and effect, to the future as a wider array of possibilities operating on the present. Notably absent from this literature is law. This article offers a framework for analyzing how law mobilizes future possibilities to serve present regulatory purposes, focusing in particular on the role of legal horizons, forms and affect.