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SWP
Pakistan's democracy, its military, and America
SWP
Pakistan's surprising and marred 2024 election, and what comes next
SWP
Ahead of elections, Pakistan's democracy stands badly damaged
SWP
Pakistan's always-troubled democracy is on the brink once again
Blog: Order from Chaos
Pakistan's ongoing political crisis has reached a crescendo this month with former Prime Minister Imran Khan's arrest and its fallout. The contours of the conflict are clear: it is Khan versus Pakistan's military establishment. And the gloves are off. Khan was arrested on May 9 from the premises of the Islamabad High Court, whisked away…
Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach
In: The Pakistan development review: PDR, S. 757-770
The effects of devaluation or depreciation on the trade balance of a country are usually examined by the Marshall-Lerner [ML] condition, which states that if the sum of the absolute values of imports and exports demand price elasticities is greater than one, devaluation is expected to improve the trade balance of a country. Some Structural Adjustment Reforms were started with the help of IMF and World Bank in 1982-83 with the objective of improving the efficiency of the economy by increasing the role of the private sector. The reforms included the delinking of the Rupee from US dollar in January 1982, price deregulation of a large number of products, denationalisation of industry, imports liberalisation and export expansion [Khan (1994)]. The successive governments have taken a number of steps to pursue an extensive liberalisation of the trade regime in addition to taking a number of export measures. Exchange and payment reforms were also implemented [Pakistan (1991-92)].
The Impact of Globalisation on Economic Growth of Pakistan
In: The Pakistan development review: PDR, S. 723-734
Globalisation has diverse definitions and concepts.1 Globalisation has many facets and has a variety of social, political and economic implications. This term introduced in early 1980, which never precisely defined, is a frequently used word in the political economy. It simply means growing integration of the national economies, openness to trade, financial flows, foreign direct investment and the increasing interaction of people in all facets of their lives. Globalisation also implies internationalisation of production, distribution and marketing of goods and services. International integration implies the adoption of common policies by the individual countries. Between 1870 and 1914, the world was integrated into a single word economy dominated by one power: Great Britain. The government functions were limited and faced many constraints like gold standard and lack of freedom to pursue easy monetary policy. Later governments were burdened by performing many functions like achievement of macroeconomic goals—full employment, economic growth and price stability. Freedom of using macroeconomic policies resulted in greater integration of national economies but at the same time they led to international disintegration and interdependence. Streeten (1998) argues that today global market forces can lead to conflict between states, contributing to international disintegration and weakened governance. Before 1914, the world was more integrated than it is today but it did not prevent the First World War.
The Unchanging Profile of Development: A Historical Study of the Punjab 1961-2008
In: The Pakistan development review: PDR, S. 841-862
In recent years, the importance of historic events in the socioeconomic development of countries has emerged as an important area of research. There is a growing interest in determining the impact of historic events and conditions such as colonial rules, institutions, and factor endowments on the economic and social circumstances of countries today. Furthermore, the levels of development in the early decades of newly independent territories can have long term effects on the progress of those regions [Nunn (2007, 2009); Olsson and Hibbs (2005); Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001); Engerman and Sokoloff (2000); La Porta, et al. (1998)].
Psycho-scapes: Fictionalising Nations and Nationalisation of the Self in Bilal Tanweer'sThe Scatter Here Is Too Great
In: Society and culture in South Asia, Band 8, Heft 2, S. 198-218
ISSN: 2394-9872
Bilal Tanweer's debut novel, The Scatter Here Is Too Great, brings to forefront the metaphor for living in the Pakistani society and discusses what it means to be a nation through blending narratives imbibed in its social milieu. The fiction not only speaks of a nation wrought in a nationalist consciousness culturally, emotionally and aesthetically but also questions what it means to be separating the 'world' from 'home' and the 'self' from the 'nation' itself. Through the representation of the private psycho-scape, the 'I', Tanweer captures the scattered imaginings of various identities into a national domain. The novel is explored through several features of conscious interiority, mind words and metaphorical mental idioms where the characters are 'introceived' through poetic examination of internal organs such as the heart, eye and mind which ironically have become a part of the scattered clutter outside like the body parts after a violent explosion. In an interview, Tanweer agrees that, 'When you visit a country, you actually visit a city. You rarely visit a country' (Rehman, Interview by Bilal Tanweer, 2018). For him, the cityscape of Karachi becomes the microcosm of a maelstrom whose macrocosm significantly is Pakistan. His literary craft rejects monolithism and weaves through sensibilities among the lowest strata of the society to portray a conundrum which becomes the final representation of his nation.
COVID-19 and Sustainability in Higher Education
Sustainability is a lifestyle designed for permanence. Sustainability is the comparatively more uncomplicated idea, which can be explained in purely descriptive terms as any given system's capacity to exist and reproduce on a long-term basis. This study applied for the thoughtful review; the researcher collected data using secondary sources and used various peer-reviewed journal articles and various government and agency publications. The researcher also used personal reflection from the higher education practice. The measure of reflection explored the experimental research methods (primarily reflection) using literary forms.The development adds a value judgment by implying the desired evolution of human society. Sustainability in Higher Education calls us to new sets of relationships with our students, with each other, with what we learn, and with ourselves. In this thoughtful review, the researcher has attempted to reveal some common facts relating to COVID-19 and higher education sustainability.
BASE
Strategic Interests, Power Dynamics and Emerging Alliances in IOR
The Indian Ocean Region has emerged as a theatre of competition between the competing powers which are pursuing strategies to maximize their relative share of power. This region gained tremendous political, economic and strategic importance. The U.S. has embarked upon the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy in its pursuit to encircle China with the help of India. This leads to realignment of strategic relations in the Indian Ocean Region, whereby India has emerged as a Major U.S. Defence Partner. This study explores how these changing relations might implicate the strategic landscape of the region. The theoretical foundation of this study would mainly revolve around the realist school of thought and a modern variant of Hans Morgenthau's realism often called as neo realism or structured realism. By using the qualitative research methodology, the study attempts to develop a balanced perspective regarding different policy objectives and foreign policy approaches of several states involved in this region including Pakistan. The Indian Ocean Region has emerged as a theatre of competition between the competing powers which are pursuing strategies to maximize their relative share of power. This region gained tremendous political, economic and strategic importance. The U.S. has embarked upon the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy in its pursuit to encircle China with the help of India. This leads to realignment of strategic relations in the Indian Ocean Region, whereby India has emerged as a Major U.S. Defence Partner. This study explores how these changing relations might implicate the strategic landscape of the region. The theoretical foundation of this study would mainly revolve around the realist school of thought and a modern variant of Hans Morgenthau's realism often called as neo realism or structured realism. By using the qualitative research methodology, the study attempts to develop a balanced perspective regarding different policy objectives and foreign policy approaches of several states involved in this region ...
BASE
Essays on fractional cointegration and spurious long memory
This thesis contains four essays on fractional cointegration and spurious long memory following the introduction and related literature in the first chapter. Chapter 2 provides an analysis of fractional integration and cointegration using the high, the low, and the range stock prices instead of closing prices. We analyze the long memory trends across six Asian stock markets including Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan. The empirical analysis provide a univariate analysis which includes the unit root tests and estimation of fractional integration in the highs, the lows, and the ranges. Range, being a linear combination of the nonstationary highs and lows, is a stationary long memory process which specifies the need to model these two extreme values and the range simultaneously in a multivariate fractional cointegration context. The fractional vector error correction model fulfills this specification while considering the short-run and long-run relationships. We also perform a forecast comparison of FVECM with alternative models. The autoregressive fractionally integrated and the Heterogeneous autoregressive models are considered to model the long memory in the ranges. Our results support the use of daily ranges as volatility estimator and FVECM to model the long-run convergence and short-run divergence in the highs and lows at the same time. In chapter 3, we analyze the true long memory or spurious long memory in the range based volatilities of spot exchange rates across 30 currencies against the USD including the developed, the developing and the emerging exchange rates. The persistence of exchange rates is of much interest for the central bank, for policymakers, and to understand the inflation dynamics in an economy. The frequency domain analysis exhibits the spurious long memory in most of the currencies due to some low-frequency contaminations, level shifts, or structural changes. We proceed with the estimation of structural points with an unknown number of breaks. Our results provide a different number of breaks across currencies which may relate to some shocks, economic crisis, and financial policies. Chapter 4 contains a detailed analysis of persistent trends in all share index and ten sectoral indices in an emerging stock market of Pakistan. There is a general consideration regarding the inefficiency of emerging markets compared to the developed markets. Our results show the existence of predictable trends across KSE100 and ten sectors. Moreover, we investigate that the existing trends are true or a result of some level shifts with a semiparametric test. According to the adaptive market hypothesis the long-range dependence is not a constant phenomenon and it varies over time corresponding to the market conditions. We analyze this time-varying long memory with a rolling window technique and observe the fluctuating trends such as persistence, antipersistence, efficiency, and inefficiency at different times. Finally, we analyze the fractional cointegration between the volatilities of the conventional index and Islamic index in chapter 5. Islamic finance attracts the attention of investors and traders regarding its different features such as zero interest rates and profit loss sharing strategies. Some researchers believe that Islamic financial markets can work as a good diversification candidate due to different performance levels during the phases of economic and political shocks. This analysis considers the conventional and Islamic indices across nine Islamic countries: Bahrain, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan. Our results suggest the existence of fractional cointegration and absence of diversification opportunities between the indices in seven out of nine countries in the long-run. This implies that both types of indices follow same trends while there may exist the diversification alternatives in the other two cases.
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Baluchistan – Development, Challenges and Options
This research is the qualitative study and analysis in which case study has been done to explore the historical circumstances, current challenges and future options for Baluchistan region. Baluchistan is the largest province of Pakistan in terms of area, however, the smallest in population. It is studied that due to geographical position, richness in natural resources and political gains Baluchistan region remain important but underdeveloped and unstable region. Different anti-state elements kept intervene in the region resulted in security risks. Baluchistan faced and is facing different challenges in respect to, economic, social, geographical, political and security factors that impede its development. The challenges, opportunities and options are descriptively discussed in this study. The study conclude the need of educated middle class in the province, their participation in the politics for stability and development. Moreover, the study highlights the dire need of effective political communication process for strong democratic practices in the region.
BASE
Twitter Diffusion in the Political Communication of Pakistan
This study investigated the adaptation of political communication process in Pakistan using new communication and organizational paradigm originating in the evolution of the Internet and online social networks. This is the quantitative study in which survey method is used to analyze the twitter trends in political communication process of Pakistan. The study results have proved the continuous increase in the twitter users in Pakistan in last five years. Moreover, the study shows the twitter usage for political information and opinion building purposes by Pakistani citizens. The data verify the research question that twitter has become an important tool in political communication of Pakistan.
BASE
A multifaceted threat environment for Pakistan's media
In: The SAIS review of international affairs / the Johns Hopkins University, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Band 38, Heft 2, S. 33-41
ISSN: 1945-4716
World Affairs Online