Suchergebnisse

The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven, on one hand, by a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other, by international goals for reducing greenhouse gases emissions. The objective of this work was to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power system until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Taking into account the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power system. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power system is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. ; This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning ...

The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. ; The research that allowed the publication of this paper has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union in the context of the CLIMACAP project (EuropeAid/131944/C/SER/Multi) and of the U.S. Agency for International Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the context of the LAMP project (under Interagency Agreements DW89923040 and DW89923951US). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union or the U.S. government. The authors would like to thank the feedback and efforts from all CLIMACAP and LAMP project partners for enabling the research results reported in this article. This research was ...