Suchergebnisse

We analyze the economic effects of the differentiated targets for carbon abatement in six European Union member states. Our recursively-dynamic model includes a detailed representation of trade and energy consumption and incorporates optimistic projections for future energy markets provided by the European Commission as the Business-as-Usual scenario. In the base case we find that the EU implementation of the Kyoto Protocol implies low overall costs and a relatively even cost distribution across member states. We also show that a less optimistic development in energy efficiency implies higher costs in all countries, especially in those with high abatement costs. Finally, we find that uniform abatement targets increase overall costs marginally but changes the cost distribution significantly, holding total EU emissions constant.

Die Klimaschutzdiskussion wird von der Frage dominiert, welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten mit der Umgestaltung des Energiesystems zu klimaverträglichen Strukturen verbunden sind. Höhe und Verteilung dieser Kosten entscheiden darüber, ob sich umweltpolitische Strategien zum nachhaltigen Schutz der Erdatmosphäre durchsetzen lassen. Für Kostenschätzungen des Klimaschutzes werden typischerweise quantitative Modelle des energie- oder volkswirtschaftlichen Systems eingesetzt. Allerdings weisen modellgestützte Studien erhebliche Unterschiede in den Kostenschätzungen aus, was zu widersprüchlichen politischen Handlungsempfehlungen führen kann. Ziel des folgenden Beitrages ist es, die mit quantitativen Wirtschaftsmodellen ermittelten Kosten von Klimaschutzstrategien vor dem Hintergrund wichtiger Determinanten zu analysieren. Das Verständnis für wichtige Determinanten der Kostenschätzungen ist eine Voraussetzung für die richtige Interpretation von Kostengrößen und damit Grundlage für eine rationale Klimapolitik.

We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal and the amendments of the Bonn climate policy conference in 2001 will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol in its original form. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that U.S. withdrawal together with the new provisions of Bonn are likely to reduce environmental effectiveness to zero. U.S. compliance under the new Bonn amendments would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at small compliance costs for OECD countries rising some hopes that the U.S. might rejoin the Kyoto Protocol during the next years.

In this paper we investigate how restrictions for emission trading to the energy-intensive power sector will affect the magnitude and distribution of abatement costs across EU countries vis-?-vis a comprehensive EU emission trading regime. We find that emission trading between European power sectors allows the harvest of a major part of the efficiency gains provided by full trade as compared to strictly domestic action. However, trade restrictions may create a more unequal distribution of abatement costs across member states than is the case for a comprehensive trade regime. The reason for this is that restricted permit trade enhances the secondary terms-of-trade benefits to EU member countries with low marginal abatement costs at the expense of the other EU member states.

Die Klimaschutzdiskussion wird von der Frage dominiert, welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten mit der Umgestaltung des Energiesystems zu klimaverträglichen Strukturen verbunden sind. Höhe und Verteilung dieser Kosten entscheiden darüber, ob sich umweltpolitische Strategien zum nachhaltigen Schutz der Erdatmosphäre durchsetzen lassen. Für Kostenschätzungen des Klimaschutzes werden typischerweise quantitative Modelle des energie- oder volkswirtschaftlichen Systems eingesetzt. Allerdings weisen modellgestützte Studien erhebliche Unterschiede in den Kostenschätzungen aus, was zu widersprüchlichen politischen Handlungsempfehlungen führen kann. Ziel des folgenden Beitrages ist es, die mit quantitativen Wirtschaftsmodellen ermittelten Kosten von Klimaschutzstrategien vor dem Hintergrund wichtiger Determinanten zu analysieren. Das Verständnis für wichtige Determinanten der Kostenschätzungen ist eine Voraussetzung für die richtige Interpretation von Kostengrößen und damit Grundlage für eine rationale Klimapolitik.

The Kyoto Protocol marks a break-through in global warming mitigation policies as it sets legally binding emissions targets for major emitting regions. However, realisation of the Protocol depends on the clarification of several issues one of which is the permissible scope of international emissions trading between signatory countries. Unrestricted trade produces hot air when signatory countries whose Kyoto targets are well above their business as usual emissions trade in larger amounts of ?abundant? emission rights. Concerns on hot air motivated proposals for caps on emissions trading by the EU. These caps are strictly refused by the USA and other non-European industrialized countries who want to exploit the full efficiency gains from trade. In this paper we show that there are cooling down strategies which can reconcile both positions. International permit trade provides enough efficiency gains to make all signatory countries better off than without permit trade while mitigating hot air. In other words, part of the efficiency gains from free trade could be used to pay for higher abatement targets of signatory countries which assure the same environmental effectiveness as compared to strictly domestic action or restricted permit trade.

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