Suchergebnisse

A study of the extent to which agricultural policy affects voting patterns. Four hypotheses were formulated: voting patterns will favor the government (1) to the extent that it places greater priority on agricultural policy than its predecessor; (2) in regions characterized by a certain mode of production, depending on the support the government has given to that mode of production compared to its predecessor; (3) to the extent that it has favored a given region compared to its predecessor; & (4) in wealthier localities to the extent that they have benefited more from agricultural policy than under previous governments. The first hypothesis was not supported; the fourth hypothesis was also invalidated. Data on the remaining two hypotheses are ambiguous, confirmed by 1966 data, but not by 1973 data; the reason may be that liberal governments in the 1960s promoted direct assistance programs, while in the 1970s agricultural assistance took more indirect forms. 12 Tables. S. Karganovic.

AbstractWe study strategic voting behaviour in winner-take-all elections by means of an original study in which participants vote to collectively decide how much money should be given to an environmental NGO. We find that supporters of the most NGO-friendly party are reluctant to abandon it, despite its poor electoral viability. The poor electoral viability generates significant anxiety among its supporters and the level of anxiety at the time of voting influences their choice. Moderate levels of anxiety increase the probability of defection, but at high levels, anxiety has a paralyzing effect, making voters less likely to abandon their preferred choice.

Voter turnout has consistently declined since the 1980s across a wide range of advanced democracies. Much of this decline appears to be the result of young people abstaining. In this article the authors test two arguments for this trend. The first rests on the claim that the character of elections has changed, specifically that elections have become less competitive and that young people's propensities for voting are particularly negatively affected by this. The second maintains that recent generations have different values and that these value differences explain turnout declines. The authors test these two explanations using three different data sets: (a) individual-level and election-specific data from 83 elections in eight countries since the 1950s, (b) longitudinal individual-level and district-level data from British elections for the period 1974-2005, and (c) panel data from American presidential elections. The findings provide strong evidence for the generational value change argument, whereas the authors find scant support for the competition argument. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]

AbstractWe propose an experimental design particularly adapted to the study
of individual behavior in collective action situations. The
experimental protocol improves on the artificiality that is commonly
present in lab and survey experiments to achieve a closer
replication of the real-life conditions of such decisions while
avoiding the high costs associated with field experiments. We
exemplify this design by means of a study on strategic voting in
elections.

We propose a new general measure of district competitiveness that can be applied to both PR and SMP systems. We define competitiveness as the degree of uncertainty in the outcome of an election, and so the measure of competitiveness is the minimal number of additional votes required for any party to win one additional seat. We show that this corresponds to margin of victory in an SMP system and we illustrate how this can be computed in a PR system. We also argue that while it makes sense to take into account the total number of votes cast in the district it is also imperative to consider the number of seats contested. We compare district competitiveness in two SMP and two PR countries. The findings challenge the conventional wisdom that elections are more competitive and that local competitiveness is less variable under PR than under SMP. We finally show that the impact of competitiveness on turnout decreases with district magnitude. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

The paper provides a test of Zaller's reception and acceptance model. The theory describes conditions under which a political message is received, and, if received, accepted or rejected. The study deals with the 1988 Canadian election that was fiercely fought over one central issue, the Free Trade Accord with the United States. We use the 1988 Canadian Election Study campaign rolling cross-section survey, and we test Zaller's propositions about who is most likely to receive and then accept party messages. Our findings provide little support for the model. We suggest that when an issue is hotly debated in an election campaign voters who receive party messages are able to connect these messages to their values and predispositions whatever their level of political awareness. Adapted from the source document.

Previous research has shown that those who won an election are more satisfied with the way democracy works than those who lost. What is not clear, however, is whether it is the fact of winning (losing), per se, that generates (dis)satisfaction with democracy. The current study explores this winner/loser gap with the use of the 1997 Canadian federal election panel study. It makes a theoretical and methodological contribution to our understanding of the factors that foster satisfaction with democracy. At the theoretical level, we argue that voters gain different utility from winning at the constituency and national levels in a parliamentary system, and that their expectations about whether they will win or lose affect their degree of satisfaction with democracy. On the methodological front, our analysis includes a control group (non-voters) and incorporates a control for the level of satisfaction prior to the election. The results indicate that the effect of winning and losing on voters' satisfaction with democracy is significant even when controlling for ex ante satisfaction before the election takes place, and that the outcome of the election in the local constituency matters as much as the outcome of the national election. They fail to show, however, that expectations about the outcome of the election play a significant role in shaping satisfaction with democracy.

The paper examines voters' capacity to determine which of the three main parties (the Liberals, the Conservatives, & the New Democratic Party) was weakest in their constituency in the 1988 Canadian election. We find that half of the voters correctly identified the party that would finish third in their constituency. Voters who did not identify with the third party & who were well informed were generally able to predict correctly which party would finish third. The rational expectations condition did not hold so well among other subgroups of the electorate. 2 Tables, 1 Figure, 8 References. [Copyright 2003 Elsevier Ltd.]