Peace before freedom: diplomacy and repression in Sadat's Egypt
In: Political science quarterly: PSQ ; the journal public and international affairs, Band 126, Heft 4, S. 641-668
ISSN: 0032-3195
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In: Political science quarterly: PSQ ; the journal public and international affairs, Band 126, Heft 4, S. 641-668
ISSN: 0032-3195
World Affairs Online
In: Comparative political studies: CPS, Band 44, Heft 7, S. 807-828
ISSN: 1552-3829
Although elections loom large in the study of nondemocracies, scholars continue debating what function those elections play. This article sets evidence from the Arab world in a global context to evaluate three theorized roles for elections: safety valve, patronage network, and performance ritual. Executive elections in the Middle East and North Africa remain less common and less competitive than polls in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This profile is largely consistent with the observable implications of leading theories. The data, though, also show theoretically rich differences. Although levels of competition and participation in Yemen, Tunisia, and Algeria fit expectations about elections being safety valves or political spectacles, Egypt's presidential election stands apart, with exceptionally meager public involvement. In such circumstances, where competition and turnout are both unusually low, other social and political phenomena may matter more than elections for regime survival, resource distribution, and the manifestation of state power.
In: Perspectives on politics: a political science public sphere, Band 9, Heft 4, S. 958-960
ISSN: 1537-5927
In: Studies in comparative international development: SCID, Band 45, Heft 4, S. 468-489
ISSN: 1936-6167
In: Harvard international review, Band 31, Heft 4, S. 32-38
ISSN: 0739-1854
In: Middle East report: MER ; Middle East research and information project, MERIP, Band 39, Heft 4/248, S. 8-11
ISSN: 0888-0328, 0899-2851
World Affairs Online
In: The Middle East journal, Band 63, Heft 3, S. 501-504
ISSN: 0026-3141
In: American journal of political science, Band 53, Heft 3, S. 515-532
ISSN: 1540-5907
The original studies of "competitive authoritarianism" and "hegemonic authoritarianism" inspected the occurrence of hybrid regimes during the 1990s but stopped short of testing their propensity for democratic change. This article assesses the causal effects of hybrid regimes, and the post–cold war period itself, on regime breakdown and democratization. Using a dataset of 158 regimes from 1975 to 2004, and a discrete measure for transitions to electoral democracy, I find that competitive authoritarian regimes are not especially prone to losing power but are significantly more likely to be followed by electoral democracy: vigorous electoral contestation does not independently subvert authoritarianism, yet it bodes well for democratic prospects once incumbents are overthrown.
In: American journal of political science: AJPS, Band 53, Heft 3, S. 515-532
ISSN: 0092-5853
In: Journal of east Asian studies, Band 8, Heft 1, S. 89-118
ISSN: 2234-6643
This article revisits the electoral emphasis of hybrid regime studies, arguing instead that the impact of elections is structured by variations in prior political institutions, particularly the dismantlement or maintenance of a ruling party. Duration tests on 136 regimes indicate that ruling parties reduce the chance of regime collapse, while "electoral autocracy" has no significant effect. A paired comparison of Malaysia and the Philippines then shows how variations in party institutions propelled divergent courses of authoritarian dominance and democratization. During the late 1980s and 1990s, Malaysia's ruling party (UMNO) bound together otherwise fractious leaders, twice deflecting potent electoral challenges. By contrast, when Ferdinand Marcos abandoned the Nacionalista Party after 1972, he fueled the movement that would subsequently oust him. The efficacy of opposition parties Semangat '46 and United Nationalist Democratic Opposition (UNIDO) was thus heavily imbricated with the institutions of the regimes they challenged and less contingent on short-term electoral politics.
In: Journal of east Asian studies, Band 8, Heft 1, S. 89-118
ISSN: 1598-2408
World Affairs Online
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 59, Heft 4, S. 595-628
ISSN: 1086-3338
Hereditary succession, the conventional method for preserving monarchies, has also been used to perpetuate republic-style dictatorships. With an original data set of 258 post-World War II nonmonarchical autocrats, the author tests Gordon Tullock's hypothesis that hereditary succession appeals to the ruler and to nonfamilial elites wary of a leadership struggle. The full data and close comparisons of succession outcomes are consistent with Tullock's account. In the absence of prior experience selecting a ruler through a party, regime elites accepted filial heirs apparent; when the incumbent had arisen from a party, his successor predominantly emerged from that organization. Among twenty-two cases of potential hereditary succession, variations in institutional history account for 77 percent of succession outcomes. Where the ruler preceded the party, five rulers in seven cases groomed sons and all five sons took office. In contrast, where the party predated the ruler, incumbents successfully installed sons in only three of fifteen cases.
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 59, Heft 4, S. 595-628
ISSN: 0043-8871
Hereditary succession, the conventional method for preserving monarchies, has also been used to perpetuate republic-style dictatorships. With an original data set of 258 post-World War II nonmonarchical autocrats, the author tests Gordon Tullock's hypothesis that hereditary succession appeals to the ruler and to nonfamilial elites wary of a leadership struggle. The full data and close comparisons of succession outcomes are consistent with Tullock's account. In the absence of prior experience selecting a ruler through a party, regime elites accepted filial heirs apparent; when the incumbent had arisen from a party, his successor predominantly emerged from that organization. Among twenty-two cases of potential hereditary succession, variations in institutional history account for 77 percent of succession outcomes. Where the ruler preceded the party, five rulers in seven cases groomed sons and all five sons took office. In contrast, where the party predated the ruler, incumbents successfully installed sons in only three of fifteen cases. (World Politics / SWP)
World Affairs Online
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 59, Heft 2, S. [np]
ISSN: 0043-8871
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 59, Heft 2, S. [np]
ISSN: 0043-8871