The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 49, Heft 4, S. 664-668
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
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In: PS: political science & politics, Band 49, Heft 4, S. 664-668
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: Congress & the presidency, Band 42, Heft 1, S. 95-97
ISSN: 1944-1053
In: Congress and the presidency: an interdisciplinary journal of political science and history, Band 42, Heft 1, S. 95-97
ISSN: 0734-3469
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 4, S. 779-781
ISSN: 1537-5935
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 4, S. 769-771
ISSN: 1537-5935
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 2, S. 301-303
ISSN: 1537-5935
In: The Forum: a journal of applied research in contemporary politics, Band 12, Heft 4
ISSN: 1540-8884
AbstractThis article examines the influences on the 2014 midterm congressional elections. The election was a decisive victory for the Republican Party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats and with them control of the Senate. They also gained thirteen House seats, extending their House majority to its largest size in over 80 years. Although Republican seat gains can be explained at one level by the normal processes of surge and decline plus the midterm as a referendum on the performance of the presidential party, this does not explain why the midterm referendum was so lopsidedly against the Democrats that it created a Republican wave in the election. This analysis traces the reasons for the Democrats' "shellacking" to the 2012 presidential election. The reason for President Obama's reelection in 2012 has been misinterpreted as an ideological triumph or as a positive referendum on the president's job performance. Neither was the case. As a first party-term incumbent, President Obama was given additional time to revive the weak economy that he inherited from President Bush. The 2012 referendum on the president's performance was a suspended referendum, not a vote of confidence. The analysis shows that the economy was weak by historical standards in 2012 and remained so in 2014 and that voters realized that the economy was weak in 2012 and continued to believe so in 2014. The crucial political difference was that voters blamed former President Bush in 2012, but held the Democrats responsible in 2014.
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 4, S. 779-781
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 4, S. 769-771
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 2, S. 301-303
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: The Forum: a journal of applied research in contemporary politics, Band 10, Heft 4
ISSN: 1540-8884
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 46, Heft 1, S. 40-41
ISSN: 1537-5935
On September 10, 2012, immediately following the close of the Democratic Party's national nominating convention and 57 days before Election Day on November 6, my Convention Bump and Economy Model predicted that Barack Obama was likely to receive 51.3% of the national two-party popular vote. The Convention Bump and Economy Model consists of Gallup's preconvention preference poll, the net convention bump in the polls, and an adjusted second quarter GDP growth rate. The forecast pegged the certainty of an Obama plurality at 67%. No sure thing, but more likely than not. The traditional Trial-Heat and Economy Model predicted Obama's vote at 52.0%. The Convention Bump and Economy Model's prediction was the preferred forecast in 2012 because of the lateness of the parties' nominating conventions. Democrats did not even begin their convention until after Labor Day.
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 46, Heft 1, S. 37
ISSN: 1537-5935
The October 2012 issue ofPSpublished a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 46, Heft 1, S. 40-41
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper
SSRN
Working paper