Suchergebnisse

This article offers a dynamic approach to nationality formation within a multi-ethnic state. Instead of reifying national identities, these are conceptualized as political platforms both determining and determined by the power balance between the state's core and periphery. A simple computational model provides a test-bench for exploring the interaction between material and cultural factors. It is found that the more powerful the centre is compared to the opposition, the more inclusive the latter's national identity needs to be in order to guarantee revolutionary success. The article ends with an application of the theoretical framework to the historical development leading to the creation of Yugoslavia in World War I. The analysis suggests that an ecological selection mechanism war at least partly responsible for the rise of pan-Yugoslavism.

This article reviews the literature on civil war. We focus on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. We identify three explanatory logics that have dominated much of this literature and that view civil wars as a consequence of greed, grievances, and opportunities, respectively. We evaluate the arguments and findings of these theoretical approaches with respect to each of the main phases of war: outbreak, wartime dynamics, conflict termination, and postwar recovery. The article concludes by identifying key challenges confronting future civil war research. In particular, we emphasize the continuing need to advance theories that bridge the main explanatory logics as well as the different phases of conflict. Researchers should also pay more attention to defining the appropriate spatiotemporal scope of their studies.

A large body of literature claims that oil production increases the risk of civil war. However, a growing number of skeptics argue that the oil–conflict link is not causal, but merely an artifact of flawed research designs. This article re-evaluates whether – and where – oil causes conflict by employing a novel identification strategy based on the geological determinants of hydrocarbon reserves. We employ geospatial data on the location of sedimentary basins as a new spatially disaggregated instrument for petroleum production. Combined with newly collected data on oil field locations, this approach allows investigating the causal effect of oil on conflict at the national and subnational levels. Contrary to the recent criticism, we find that previous work has underestimated the magnitude of the conflict-inducing effect of oil production. Our results indicate that oil has a large and robust effect on the likelihood of secessionist conflict, especially if it is produced in populated areas. In contrast, oil production does not appear to be linked to center-seeking civil wars. Moreover, we find considerable evidence in favor of an ethno-regional explanation of this link. Oil production significantly increases the risk of armed secessionism if it occurs in the settlement areas of ethnic minorities.