Origins and Age of Deterrence: Comparative Research on Old World and New World Systems
In: Cross-Cultural Research, Vol. 33 No. 3, August 1999, 239-264
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In: Cross-Cultural Research, Vol. 33 No. 3, August 1999, 239-264
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In: Perspectives on political science, Band 28, Heft 3, S. 179
ISSN: 1045-7097
In: International Studies Quarterly, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 1
In: International studies quarterly: the journal of the International Studies Association, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 1-22
ISSN: 0020-8833, 1079-1760
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In: American political science review, Band 89, Heft 2, S. 537-539
ISSN: 1537-5943
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 38, Heft 1, S. 170-172
ISSN: 1552-8766
In: The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Band 38, Heft 1 (Mar., S. 1994
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In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 38, Heft 1, S. 170
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 35, Heft 3, S. 387-411
ISSN: 1552-8766
Results from this study conducted in November 1990 at the Long-Range Analysis of War Project, University of Colorado, predict that the magnitude μ of a war between Iraq and the United Nations collective security coalition will be between 5 (hundred thousand combatant fatalities) and 6-(low million). War magnitude is defined as the common logarithm of total combatant fatalities. This falsifiable forecast ("an event 5 ≤μ≤ 6-will occur") was derived using mathematical models for fatalities, extent, and duration, estimated on historical populations of Correlates of War Project data on interstate wars involving great powers. The forecast will be wrong if and only if 5 > μ > 6-. However, failure is scientifically unlikely in this case, because the models are parsimonious, they show strong empirical fit, and extensive tests prove that they are largely insensitive to historical evolution - unlike Lanchester-type models.
In: The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Band 21, Heft 4 (Spring, S. 1991
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In: The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Band 35, Heft 3 (Sep., S. 1991
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In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 35, Heft 3, S. 387
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
In: Formal Theories of Politics, S. 561-575
In: Mathl. Comput. Modelling, Band 12, Heft 415, S. 561-575
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