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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYRecent data show a gradual economic recovery, with growth projected to reach just over1 percent in 2014/15. Inflation has trended down to about 8 percent.The program is on track. Jamaica's four-year, SDR 615.38 million (225 percent of quota)Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved by the IMF Executive Board on May 1,2013, and the first four reviews under the program were completed on schedule. All end-June 2014 quantitative performance criteria were met. The structural benchmarks for end-June were also met. Based on the strong performance to date and the authorities' up

KEY ISSUESOutlook and risks: Growth is projected to reach 2.4 percent in 2014, while core inflationremains close to the target. Strong export demand has boosted manufacturingproduction and employment, and construction activity is starting to recover, supportedby an expansion of public infrastructure spending. The main external risk is a rise incapital flow volatility caused by uncertainties related to the unwinding of the U.S.monetary policy stimulus or heightened geopolitical tensions. The main domestic risk isthe effectiveness of implementation of the structural reforms.Structural Reforms: M

On December 24, 2013, a tropical trough system impacted St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The heavy rains resulted in severe floods and landslides, with damages and losses estimated to be equivalent to about 15 percent of GDP. With most of the impact falling on infrastructure, including bridges, roads and hydroelectric facilities, emergency relief costs and rehabilitation and reconstruction expenses are opening a balance of payments gap in 2014

Cover -- Contents -- THE IMPACT OF MEXICO'S ENERGY REFORM ON HYDROCARBONS PRODUCTION -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- MADE IN MEXICO: THE ENERGY REFORM AND MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- References -- TABLES -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- APPENDIX -- I. Panel VAR model -- APPENDIX FIGURES -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- CAPITAL FLOW VOLATILITY AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- D. Does Foreign Participation Amplify External Shock? A Time-Series Analysis of Mexican Sovereign Bond Market -- E. Concluding Remarks -- References -- BOXES -- 1. OLS and Multivariate GARCH Models -- 2. Data on Foreign Mutual Funds -- FIGURES -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes.

KEY ISSUESStand-By Arrangement (SBA): The 36-month SBA for SDR 52.51 million (590 percent of quota) was approved on July 27, 2011. The seventh and eighth reviews were completed on March 19, 2014, together with the 2014 Article IV consultation. The authorities plan to continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary, which they began at the last review, and have repaid early a portion of the Fund's outstanding credit (about125 percent of quota).Context: Growth is expected to continue at a relatively rapid pace, following a stronger- than-expected recovery of nearly 4 percent in 2013, after

KEY ISSUESOutlook and risks. The economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, withsluggish real GDP growth, rising public debt and widening external current accountdeficits. International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels. The financialsystem would continue to be hampered by high NPLs and low capital buffers, especiallyat a systemic bank. Main fiscal risks include a court decision that could lead to a largerthan expected compensation to the former owners of the nationalized companies, weaknesses in a systemic bank, and the cost of the new public bank. Focus of the Consul

The economy has experienced seven consecutive years of robust growth, buoyed by high commodity prices, foreign direct investment and expansion of private sector credit. As part of a strategy to sustain growth, reduce poverty and curtail dependence on imported oil, the authorities are pursuing the Amaila Falls Hydro-electric Project (AFHP), entailing investment of about 30 percent of GDP. However, steps by Parliament that delayed important approvals led the private sector partner to withdraw, which could delay the project while additional financing is sought. Meanwhile, public debt remains high