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The future of the Arctic region is a subject of heated debates in both scientific and policy circles. The region has an enormous economic potential as a storehouse of mineral resources and as a provider of shorter and more cost-effective transportation between Europe and Asia. The Arctic is therefore an essential strategic element of the domestic and foreign policies of all Arctic states. In addition, there is an increasing economic interest in the region on the part of non-Arctic states. However, at present, the future of the Arctic region development remains highly uncertain. Scenario building is a suitable methodology to imagine alternative plausible futures of such a complex and multi-dimensional process and to elaborate successful and robust development strategies. This paper provides an overview of the scenario frameworks of Arctic futures presented in the literature and analyses key factors that determine these scenarios. Overall, we find a growing interest of the international foresight research community in the Arctic region that is evident from a number of thorough scenario-building exercises published recently. At the same time, we observe two drawbacks. First, the existing studies lack a numerical element, that is, the overwhelming majority of the scenario frameworks that can be found in the literature are fully qualitative. Quantitative estimates would strengthen the scenario narratives and enrich communication, which make them a useful addition to support a qualitative scenario framework. Second, the existing studies use a mixture of both internal and external factors to describe the underlying uncertainty. This limits the number of factors that can be taken into consideration and may be confusing for a potential user of these scenario frameworks due to the lack of a systemic view. Such a confusion can happen, for example, if some of the external factors underpinning a particular scenario suddenly develop in a direction that was not anticipated within the scenario framework. The effect of such a change on the set of scenarios and the validity of the scenarios despite this change will be of interest to the user, and a clear systems perspective would be conducive to address these questions. Separating internal and external factors in a scenario building exercise is particularly useful given that the volatility of the global geopolitical, geoeconomic and environmental dynamics is only increasing. It is our intention to address these two drawbacks in a scenario building exercise within the "Emerging trade routes between Europe and Asia" scenario-building project led by IIASA within the Northern Dimension Institute (NDI) Think Tank Action co-funded by the European Union and coordinated by Aalto University, Finland.

The future of the Arctic region is a subject of heated debates in both scientific and policy circles. The region has an enormous economic potential as a storehouse of mineral resources and as a provider of shorter and more cost-effective transportation between Europe and Asia. The Arctic is therefore an essential strategic element of the domestic and foreign policies of all Arctic states. In addition, there is an increasing economic interest in the region on the part of non-Arctic states. However, at present, the future of the Arctic region development remains highly uncertain. Scenario building is a suitable methodology to imagine alternative plausible futures of such a complex and multi-dimensional process and to elaborate successful and robust development strategies. This paper provides an overview of the scenario frameworks of Arctic futures presented in the literature and analyses key factors that determine these scenarios. Overall, we find a growing interest of the international foresight research community in the Arctic region that is evident from a number of thorough scenario-building exercises published recently. At the same time, we observe two drawbacks. First, the existing studies lack a numerical element, that is, the overwhelming majority of the scenario frameworks that can be found in the literature are fully qualitative. Quantitative estimates would strengthen the scenario narratives and enrich communication, which make them a useful addition to support a qualitative scenario framework. Second, the existing studies use a mixture of both internal and external factors to describe the underlying uncertainty. This limits the number of factors that can be taken into consideration and may be confusing for a potential user of these scenario frameworks due to the lack of a systemic view. Such a confusion can happen, for example, if some of the external factors underpinning a particular scenario suddenly develop in a direction that was not anticipated within the scenario framework. The effect of such a change on the set of scenarios and the validity of the scenarios despite this change will be of interest to the user, and a clear systems perspective would be conducive to address these questions. Separating internal and external factors in a scenario building exercise is particularly useful given that the volatility of the global geopolitical, geoeconomic and environmental dynamics is only increasing. It is our intention to address these two drawbacks in a scenario building exercise within the "Emerging trade routes between Europe and Asia" scenario-building project led by IIASA within the Northern Dimension Institute (NDI) Think Tank Action co-funded by the European Union and coordinated by Aalto University, Finland.

This policy brief reviews the current level of digitalization and technological development in Central Asia and gives preliminary recommendations to support a deepened digital cooperation in the region. The under-representation of some Central Asian countries in international rankings on digitalization makes a cross-country comparison more complicated. It requires an improved quality of work by statistical agencies of the respective countries, providing transparent and open data and following common definitions for the digital economy. Likewise, the inclusion of an intra-regional component into the national digitalization strategies would help to better exploit the digital potential of Central Asia. In a practical way, such a component would imply the creation of cross-border science centers, technology parks, sharing best practices and experiences, and establishing cross-border digital regulatory sandboxes. Harmonization of digital standards by the Central Asian countries would contribute to the reduction of non-tariff barriers - being one of the major market distortions. Cooperation in digital customs would lower corruption risks at the borders, decrease trade costs and increase clearance speed.

"This book addresses the major challenges to international cooperation for the development of the Arctic in view of the rapid growth in exploration and utilization of Arctic natural and environmental resources and transport connectivity between Europe, Asia, and North America. It covers the contemporary issues of international cooperation on the sustainable development of the Arctic"--

In recent years, the environmental effects of energy production have increasingly entered into the foreground of the sustainable development agenda. Hydrocarbon-abundant countries are blamed to become the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, trace metals, and other pollutants due to extensive use of oil, gas, and coal in energy production. Combustion of fossil fuels for heat and power generation is reported to be among the major reasons for progressing climate change globally. The United Nations and other international actors have called on national governments to substantially increase the share of renewable energy, but the main point is how to incentivize the resource-rich countries to shift to greener technologies. For the example of Kazakhstan, whose energy sector is centered on coal, this paper discusses the challenges and prospects of wind power as both an environmentally friendly and efficient option to support a transition of a resource-rich country to a green economy and a sustainable energy future. Forty-two locations across the country have been assessed on the parameters of average annual wind speed, wind availability, and four types of potential for wind power production: gross, technical, economic, and emissions reduction. Some of the key findings are that at the height below 50 m above ground level, wind power production is economically viable in electricity-deficientt southern territories, particularly, in Djungar, Saryzhas, Zhuzimdyk, and Taraz. In western, central, and northern parts of Kazakhstan, at a height above 50 m, the most promising areas for wind power production are Caspian, Northwestern, Central, and Tarbagatay corridors. The paper identifies the areas with the highest emission reduction potential and elaborates the policies to encourage the selection of wind farm locations based on their &ldquo ; economic potential-environmental effect&rdquo ; ratio. The approach allows assessing the opportunities, which decentralized wind energy systems offer to transition away from a dependence on fossil fuels and to enable sustainable economic growth.

The article is devoted to various aspects of the emergence of the Orthodox mission in East Asia. The author explores religious and political processes in East Asia on the eve of the Orthodox mission. For the first time, the processes of formation of the Russian Orthodox mission are summarized, where attention is paid to the mission factors in a historically and geographically interconnected region. ; Статья посвящена различным аспектам возникновения православной миссии в Восточной Азии. Автор устанавливает географические рамки исследования, рассматривает религиозные и политические процессы в Восточной Азии накануне православной миссии. Впервые обобщены процессы становления российской православной миссии, где внимание уделяется факторам миссии в исторически и географически взаимосвязанном регионе.

1. Introduction -- 2. Macroeconomic Indicators -- 3. Market Structures -- 4. Major Actors in Contemporary Markets -- 5. Demand and Supply -- 6. Economic Equilibrium -- 7. Economic Cycles -- 8. Disequilibrium and Unemployment -- 9. Disequilibrium and Inflation -- 10. Government Intervention in Unbalanced MarketsProvides the most comprehensive set of fundamental and emerging concepts in macroeconomics.

1. Agricultural trade patterns from the perspective of economic complexity -- 2. International agricultural trade: exporters and importers -- 3. International agricultural trade: products -- 4. The ever changing world wheat market -- 5. Trade integration and liberalization: possible solutions to keep food supply chains alive.

The aim of this work is the formalization of the model of coordination of interests of employers and owners of human capital in the labor market in high-tech industries of the national economy in the conditions of transformation of the national economy. Research conducted by the authors proved that the structure of costs of reproduction of human capital and the requirements for human potential have their own distinct features that should be considered in the specification of the economic model of value creation of human capital in these sectors. Authors propose an improved method of balancing interaction of economic interests of subjects of the labor market: employee and employer. The model reveals the mechanism of formation of the equilibrium value of human capital based on the cost approach and the income approach in modeling supply and demand in the labor market in high-tech industries. The model allows to estimate a quasi-equilibrium state of the labor market in high-tech industries with emerging trends in this market in the country as a whole. The study provides valuable analytical information required to implement science-based economic decisions in the management of human resources and their transformation into human capital, which in turn will improve the efficiency of realization of innovation potential of the company as the subject of the high-tech industry of national economy. At the level of state governance model allows to monitor the mismatches in the labor market that allows to develop actions to minimize their negative impacts on the national economy. ; peer-reviewed

We present the results of geophysical survey of the burial mound necropolis Gnezdilovo-12, which has been completely destroyed by ploughing. The results of geophysical data interpretation are compared with the results of archaeological excavations, XIX c. maps and surface artefacts distribution, showing good correlation between the datasets. For the European part of Russia the investigation of Gnezdilovo-12 is one of the first examples of full-scaled geophysical survey of the destroyed burial site, which enabled the confident interpretation of the site structure and 3D reconstruction of the burial mound landscape.

International audience ; The main research objective of this study is to examine how coastal urban communities in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) organize the sustainable development (and emerging blue economy) strategy planning process. Along with this general objective, this study focuses on four more specific questions: First, to examine whether the sustainable development and blue economy concepts are integrated into the urban development strategies and whether they are a real priority for the northern coastal communities? Second, to figure out which local government and civil society institutions are involved in the policy planning process and whether this sphere of local politics is transparent and open to public discussions? Third, to find out which specific aspects of the sustainable development and coastal blue economy concepts are given priority in the municipal development strategies? Finally, to discuss whether the AZRF coastal sustainable development/blue economy strategies aim to solve short-term/most pressing problems or they suggest long-term policies built on sustainability principles and are oriented to solve fundamental socioeconomic and ecological problems of the AZRF coastal communities? The hypothesis of this study is that a properly designed strategy planning system would be helpful for both familiarizing northern municipalities with the blue economy concept and its effective implementation. This research is based on several empirical cases, including major Arctic coastal urban centers/ports-Anadyr, Arkhangelsk, Dudinka, Murmansk, Naryan-Mar, Pevek, Sabetta, and Severodvinsk.