Suchergebnisse

Background: The shrinkage of working age population at ages between 15 and 59 after 2010 will end the era of the high-speed economic growth in China. This paper is intended to explore the ways of tackling this slowdown. Methods: By revealing annual growth rate of potential output to drop to 7.2 % in 2011-2015 and 6.1 % in 2016-2020, this paper is to explain the cause of growth rate deceleration and draw policy implications of such slowdown. Results: First, the government should not seek a growth rate above potential rate if they do not intend to see distortions in the economy such as macroeconomic instability, overcapacity, deviation from comparative advantage, and protection of inefficient firms. Second, the potential growth rate can be strengthened through institutions building and reorientation of public policy in various areas in order to spur labor mobility and productivity improvement. Conclusions: This paper suggests to deepen economic reform in order to sustain the necessarily high growth rate of the Chinese economy.

AbstractBy using a unique data set of audit trail transactions, I examine the trading behavior of market makers in the Treasury‐bond futures market during the Long‐Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis in 1998. I find strong evidence that during the crisis market makers in the aggregate engaged in anticipatory trading against customer orders from a particular clearing firm (coded PI7) that closely match various features of LTCM's trades through Bear Stearns. I also show that a significant percentage of market makers made abnormal profits during the crisis. Their aggregate abnormal profits, however, were more than offset by abnormal losses following the recapitalization of LTCM.

With the hukou (household registration) system in place since the 1950s, migration in China was limited to officially approved registration changes. Economic changes resulting from the introduction of economic reforms in the late 1970s and changes in the household registration system gave rise to the mobility of rural labor. Initially confined to rural areas, rural labor later expanded to urban migration in response to regional disparities in employment and income. This article presents and analyzes data showing the relationship between spatial patterns of migration and regional disparities.