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AbstractWe study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994–2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties' political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time‐invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far‐right parties, whereas only immigration intensity has increased the vote shares of right‐wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. Some evidence, albeit not robust, shows that immigration may have also had a positive impact on far‐left parties, thus possibly further contributing toward political polarization. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, our results, especially those related to immigration, suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994-2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties' political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time-invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far-right parties, whereas only the former has produced a positive effect on the votes of right-wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. On the other hand, neither of them has had an effect on far-left parties. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, the results suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

This paper investigates policy deviations from linear Taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the Fed during the Greenspan era. We estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy‐makers' judgment, proxied by economically meaningful variables, drives the transition across policy regimes. We find that ignoring judgment‐induced nonlinearities while estimating Taylor rules has remarkable costs in terms of fit: above 250 bps in 10 quarters. Although linear Taylor rules describe well the broad contours of monetary policy, they fail to detect relevant policy decisions driven by policy‐makers' judgment.

This article investigates the systemic factors behind cross-country variability in transnational media coverage of foreign news in the EU in 2010. Using a large data set on the transnational coverage of news by 148 EU national media, the article maps the network of EU transnational citations and performs a quantitative assessment of their systemic determinants via the estimation of a gravity model of news. Nine empirical hypotheses are tested. Size and economic development of the target (source) country are positively (negatively) associated with the probability of coverage. Historical, linguistic and economic ties increase this probability. The evidence on the effect of the countries' participation in the currency union is weak: once the historical levels of trade integration and the effects of the sovereign debt crisis are accounted for, there is no robust evidence of a higher integration of the media spheres within the eurozone. Adapted from the source document.

PurposeThis work analyses how the adoption of technological innovations correlates with workers' perceived levels of job insecurity, and what factors moderate such relationship.Design/methodology/approachThe study makes use of the 2018 wave of the Participation, Labour, Unemployment Survey (PLUS) from Inapp. The richness of the survey and the representativeness of the underlying sample (including 13,837 employed workers) allow employing various empirical specifications where it is possible to control and moderate for many socio-demographic features of the worker, including her occupation and industry of employment, thereby accounting for various potential confounding factors.FindingsThe results of this ordered logit estimations show that workers' perception of job insecurity is affected by many subjective, firm-related and even macroeconomic factors. This study demonstrates that the adoption of technological innovations by companies is associated with lower levels of job insecurity perceived by their workers. In fact, the adoption of technological innovations by a company is perceived by surviving workers (those who remain in the same firm even after the introduction of such innovations) as a signal of the firm's health and its commitment to preserving the activity. Individual- and occupation-specific moderating factors play a limited role.Originality/valueThis study estimates how perceived job insecurity relates to the technological innovations adopted by the firms in which the interviewees are employed rather than analyzing their general concerns about job insecurity. In addition, this study identifies different types of innovations, such as product and process innovation, automation and other types of innovations.

AbstractVery heterogeneous patterns of firm employment growth characterize the Chinese provinces, suggesting the existence of a relationship between these and regional factors. This empirical work explores this topic by providing novel evidence of the role played by regional institutional and regional factors in firm employment growth in China during the decade 1998–2007, an important period in the Chinese transition towards a market economy. The results show that controlling for the internal determinants of firm performance, the firms located in provinces converging faster towards a market economy, exhibiting relatively better patterns (in terms of agglomeration, endowment of human capital, innovation and environmental protection) tend to expand their employment relatively more. These findings confirm the existence of a macro–micro‐connection as to what firm heterogeneity is concerned, as they reveal a differential growth channel along the regional dimension. In particular, local progress in government–market relationships appears as the most relevant dimension of marketization process. Given the regionally decentralized institutional system in China and considering its process of transformation, these findings inform local authorities concerned with the promotion of regional employment.

AbstractTrade in oil has undergone significant changes in the last 20 years: technical progress has allowed the exploitation of new and previously untapped fields; the emergence of new large oil importers, such as China, has shifted the traditional patterns of demand and supply, while the desire to diversify energy sources has favored the emergence of new suppliers. This paper compares the topological properties of the network of crude oil trade over the period 1995–2014. The analysis covers both aggregate measures (such as network density and centralization) and node-specific indicators (e.g. centrality) that allow to uncover the rise (demise) of new (old) important players. Accounting for the position of each country within the network provides valuable information above and beyond traditional measures such as market shares. To investigate whether oil trade has experienced a process of globalization or, rather, regionalization, we look at the community structure of the network: the number of communities increases in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, but then goes back to its historical values. Something similar happens to the average geographic distance within each community, showing that along a regional component there are also strategic/political considerations at play. Econometric analysis suggests that high oil prices increase the likelihood that high-production-cost exporters play a more central role in the network, thus reducing the power of traditional suppliers.