Suchergebnisse

Der Artikel untersucht die Einkommenswirkungen von entkoppelten Zahlungen, die nach Betriebstypen oder einheitlich auf regionaler Ebene der Europäischen Union verteilt werden. Die Analyse wird durchgeführt basierend auf detaillierten Informationen über die Implementierung des Health-Check-Reform-Paketes pro landwirtschaftlicher Aktivität in jeder der 27 Mitgliedstaaten, die dann im CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact)-Modell einfließen. In den Szenarien wird der Übergang von individuellen zu einheitlichen Hektarprämien auf der Ebene der Mitgliedsländer explizit modelliert. Ergebnisse zeigen signifikante Einkommensänderungen nur für einzelne Produkte wie Hartweizen. Außerdem wird Einkommen von den traditionellen Grandes Cultures zum Futterbau umverteilt, ein Effekt, der hauptsächlich durch die Kapitalisierung der entkoppelten Zahlungen von Land, welches vorher nicht subventioniert war, zustande kommt. Im tierischen Sektor sind besonders Rindfleisch, Schafe und Ziegenproduktion betroffen. Es wird erwartet, dass Landrenten deutlich steigen, insbesondere für Grünland ; This article investigates the income effects of decoupled payments distributed at the farm-type or uniformly at the regional level within the European Union. The analysis was conducted using detailed information on the implementation of the Health Check policy package for agricultural activities in each of the 27 member states, which is included in the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. In the simulation experiments, the transition from individual to uniform per-hectare rates at the country level was explicitly modelled. The results show significant income shifts only for single products, such as durum wheat. Moreover, income was redistributed away from traditional "Grandes Cultures" crop production to fodder production, an effect primarily caused by the capitalisation of decoupled premiums on previously unsubsidised land. Cattle, sheep and goat production was primarily affected in the animal sector. Land values are expected to increase considerably, especially those of grasslands.

Subsidizing polluting industries generally leads to increased pollution locally. However, given the diversity of production technologies across countries and international trade, the global impact of unilateral policies is not a priori clear. We use the agricultural sector model CAPRI to simulate the impact of removing the voluntary coupled support for ruminants, presently permitted under the EU Common Agricultural Policy. We find that this reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. However, emissions leakage significantly diminishes the global mitigation effect since about 3/4 of the reduction in the EU is offset by increased emissions in the rest of the world.

AbstractSubsidizing polluting industries generally leads to increased pollution locally. However, given the diversity of production technologies across countries and international trade, the global impact of unilateral policies is not a priori clear. We use the agricultural sector model CAPRI to simulate the impact of removing the voluntary coupled support for ruminants, presently permitted under the EU Common Agricultural Policy. We find that this reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. However, emissions leakage significantly diminishes the global mitigation effect since about 3/4 of the reduction in the EU is offset by increased emissions in the rest of the world.

In this paper we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform using the CAPRI model. CAPRI captures the farm heterogeneity across the EU and it allows to depict the implementation of the greening measures in high detail while integrating the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, crops (fallow land and pulses) and Member States may be affected more significantly. The CAP greening will lead simultaneously to a small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts (GHG emissions, N surplus, ammonia emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity-friendly farming practices) of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, the environmental effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity-friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening.

Context: Past reviews of policy impact assessment studies using bio-economic farm models (BEFM) called for the development of a generic and modular implementation that can be maintained by a network of modellers. A main reason for these calls is the project-oriented way in which model developers receive funding. It favours the development of new models with case-study specific features over the maintenance and extension of well-tested, more generic ones which allow comparing results in a consistent way across many case-studies. The demand for more generic tools also reflects the dynamic landscape of policy measures within larger policy frameworks like the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). These policy frameworks move increasingly away from a 'one-size-fits- all' approach of policy design towards more flexible systems, giving greater freedom to shape, implement, and target policy measures to specific regions, farm management systems and farm types. This creates new challenges for model-based impact assessment as applied models have to reflect the variety of policy measures and characteristics of targeted farmers and rural communities. Objective: The aim of this paper is to first address key questions regarding the functionality and implementation of such a modular BEFM that can be maintained and expanded by a user group, and second to develop concrete proposals of necessary model features, model design and shared development. Methods: This paper builds on literature research, including a detailed review of four models that are used extensively for impact assessment within the EU and were developed by multiple teams over a longer period of time. From there, necessary and desirable features of a generic and modular BEFM are identified and requirements for model design regarding modularity, software engineering, and shared development are discussed. Results and conclusions: This feeds into the development of concrete proposals of how modularity and flexibility can be addressed in the development, application and maintenance of a BEFM. At the end, a list of design decisions and implementation steps is proposed to build a modular BEFM that can be maintained by a network of researchers. Significance: The concept for a network-based generic and modular bio-economic farm model responds to the demand for analytical tools in agricultural policy impact analysis. The paper develops a research agenda to overcome observed limitations in the current landscape of such models.

This paper examines the potential impact of agricultural and trade policy reform on land-use across the EU focussing particularly on the issue of land abandonment. Using a novel combined application of the well established CAPRI and Dyna-CLUE models it estimates the extent of change across Europe under removal of Pillar 1 support payments and trade liberalisation. Overall, it is estimated that around 8 per cent less land will be farmed under these reforms than under the baseline situation. However, some regions, areas and farm types face more significant reductions. The reforms are particularly felt on livestock grazing farms situated in the more marginal areas of Europe, which also coincide with areas of high nature value. Therefore, farmland biodiversity is likely to be reduced in these areas. However, using a range of environmental indicators, relating to nutrient surpluses, GHG emissions, soil erosion and species abundance, an overall improvement in the environmental footprint of agriculture is likely. In addition, the economic efficiency of the agricultural sector will probably improve. The paper considers several possible options available to deal with any negative aspects of land abandonment. Following the FAO (2006), it is argued that untargeted, rather general agricultural policy measures which maintain land in production are likely to be an ineffective and inefficient way to address the perceived negative consequences of abandonment. A more holistic approach to rural development is required, tailored to the specific context within each area.

Die flächenbezogenen Direktzahlungen der ersten Säule der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) stellen den größten Teil der öffentlichen Mittel an die aktiven Landwirte dar. Im Jahr 2016 beliefen sich diese Zahlungen für Deutschland auf 4,84 Mrd. Euro. Pro Hektar werden somit jährlich ewa 280 Euro gezahlt. Im Hinblick auf die Weiterentwicklung der GAP für die Zeit nach 2020 und aufgrund der großen finanziellen Bedeutung der Direktzahlungen für die Landwirte, werden teilweise kontroverse Diskussionen über die künftige Mittelverteilung und den Einsatz dieser Zahlungen zur bestmöglichen Erreichung von agrar- und umweltpolitischen Zielen geführt. Ein viel diskutiertes Thema ist insbesondere die Umverteilung der Direktzahlungen zugunsten kleinerer Betriebe. Um die Informationsbasis für Verhandlungen zu verbessern, hat das Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL) das Thünen-Institut beauftragt, die Wirkungen der Direktzahlungen auf den Strukturwandel in der Landwirtschaft zu analysieren. Besondere Aspekte des uftrags waren die Überwälzung der Zahlungen an Verpächter, die Auswirkungen auf den betrieblichen Strukturwandel sowie Größeneffekte hinsichtlich des Betriebsaufwands und der Unternehmensgewinne. Um die Ergebnisse einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit zugänglich zu machen, ird die auf einzelne Fragen des BMEL antwortende Stellungnahme nun publiziert. [.] ; Direct payments under the first pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent the largest part of public funds received by active farmers. In 2016, these payments amounted to 4.84 billion euros in Germany. This means that about 280 euros per hectare are paid annually. In view of the further development of the CAP after 2020 and due to the great financial importance of direct payments for farmers, controversial discussions are being held on the future distribution of funds and the use of these payments for the best possible achievement of agricultural and environmental policy objectives. A much discussed topic is in particular the redistribution of direct payments in favour of smaller farms. In order to improve the information basis for negotiations, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) has commissioned the Thünen Institute to analyse the effects of direct payments on structural change in agriculture. Special aspects of the investigation were capitalization of direct payments into land rental rates, the effects on farm structural change as well as economies of scale with regard to operating expenses and company profits. In order to make the results accessible to an interested public, the statement responding to questions of the BMEL is now published. [.]

Die flächenbezogenen Direktzahlungen der ersten Säule der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) stellen den größten Teil der öffentlichen Mittel an die aktiven Landwirte dar. Im Jahr 2016 beliefen sich diese Zahlungen für Deutschland auf 4,84 Mrd. Euro. Pro Hektar werden somit jährlich etwa 280 Euro gezahlt. Im Hinblick auf die Weiterentwicklung der GAP für die Zeit nach 2020 und aufgrund der großen finanziellen Bedeutung der Direktzahlungen für die Landwirte, werden teilweise kontroverse Diskussionen über die künftige Mittelverteilung und den Einsatz dieser Zahlungen zur bestmöglichen Erreichung von agrar- und umweltpolitischen Zielen geführt. Ein viel diskutiertes Thema ist insbesondere die Umverteilung der Direktzahlungen zugunsten kleinerer Betriebe. Um die Informationsbasis für Verhandlungen zu verbessern, hat das Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL) das Thünen-Institut beauftragt, die Wirkungen der Direktzahlungen auf den Strukturwandel in der Landwirtschaft zu analysieren. Besondere Aspekte des Auftrags waren die Überwälzung der Zahlungen an Verpächter, die Auswirkungen auf den betrieblichen Strukturwandel sowie Größeneffekte hinsichtlich des Betriebsaufwands und der Unternehmensgewinne. Um die Ergebnisse einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit zugänglich zu machen, wird die auf einzelne Fragen des BMEL antwortende Stellungnahme nun publiziert. ; Direct payments under the first pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent the largest part of public funds received by active farmers. In 2016, these payments amounted to 4.84 billion euros in Germany. This means that about 280 euros per hectare are paid annually. In view of the further development of the CAP after 2020 and due to the great financial importance of direct payments for farmers, controversial discussions are being held on the future distribution of funds and the use of these payments for the best possible achievement of agricultural and environmental policy objectives. A much discussed topic is in particular the redistribution of direct payments in favour of smaller farms. In order to improve the information basis for negotiations, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) has commissioned the Thünen Institute to analyse the effects of direct payments on structural change in agriculture. Special aspects of the investigation were capitalization of direct payments into land rental rates, the effects on farm structural change as well as economies of scale with regard to operating expenses and company profits. In order to make the results accessible to an interested public, the statement responding to questions of the BMEL is now published.

This paper assesses the impact of an EU-wide policy to expand grassland areas and promote carbon sequestration in soils. We use the economic Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model, which represents EU agriculture using 2450 mathematical programming farm-type models in combination with the biogeochemistry CENTURY model, which provides carbon sequestration rates at a high resolution level. Both models are linked at the NUTS3 level using location information from the Farm Accounting Data Network. We simulated a flexible grassland premium such that farmers voluntary and cost efficiently increase grassland area by 5%. We find that the GHG mitigation potential and the costs depend on carbon sequestration rates, land markets and induced land use changes, and regional agricultural production structures. In Europe, the calculated net effect of converting 2.9 Mha into grassland is a reduction of 4.3 Mt CO2e (equivalents). The premium amounts to an average of EUR 238/ha, with a total cost of EUR 417 million for the whole EU. The net abatement costs are based on the premium payments, and account on average EUR 97/t CO2e. However, substantial carbon sequestration (28% of total sequestration) can be achieved at a rate of EUR 50/t CO2e. Carbon sequestration would be most effective in regions of France and Italy and in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany. Larger farms and farm-types specialized in 'cereals and protein crops', 'mixed field cropping' and 'mixed crop-livestock' farming systems have the highest mitigation potential at relatively low costs.

59. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V. vom 25. bis 27. September 2019

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2015 - 2025 sowie die zugrun-de liegenden Annahmen dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden mehrere agraröko-nomische Modellen im Verbund eingesetzt. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den im Juli 2015 vorlie-genden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Die Thünen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen aus. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nach-frage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse kon-zentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2009 - 2011. Darüber hinaus widmet sich die Thünen-Baseline 2015 - 2025 in einem eigenständigen Kapitel den Auswirkungen der Kopplung von Direktzahlun-gen, die in allen EU-Mitgliedstaaten, mit Ausnahme von Deutschland, eingesetzt wird. In der Thünen-Baseline 2015 - 2025 tragen günstige Aussichten auf dem Weltagrarmarkt in Kombinati-on mit einem schwachen Euro dazu bei, dass sich die Einkommen vieler Betriebe in Deutschland bis 2025 positiv entwickeln. Jedoch zeigt eine Variationsrechnung, die eine Wiederaufwertung des Euro unterstellt, wie stark gerade die exportorientierten Sektoren (wie z. B. Milch) von der Entwicklung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen abhängig sind. ; This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025 as well as the assump-tions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combin-ing several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2009 - 2011. In addition, the Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025 takes a closer look at the impacts of coupled payments, which have been implemented in all EU member states except Germany. In the Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets in combination with a weak Euro contribute to the positive develop-ment of farm incomes in Germany. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments.

This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025, a projection of medium-term developments of the agricultural sector in Germany, addressing agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, income and environmental aspects. The Baseline was established using and combining several models of the Thünen Modelling Network. In the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets, in combination with a weak Euro, contribute to the positive development of many agricultural product prices and farm incomes in Germany. The abolishment of the milk quota and rising milk prices are key factors in the projected increase of milk production to 37 million tons by 2025. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments. Germany is the only member state without voluntary coupled support payments in the Baseline. The use of coupled payments in the other EU member states has only small negative effects on Germany. Reduction of ammonia emissions and high regional nitrogen soil surpluses remain among the key environmental challenges for agricultural policy. ; Dieser Artikel stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen- Baseline 2015 – 2025, einer Abschätzung zukünftiger mittel bis langfristiger Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors, dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden mehrere agrarökonomische Modelle im Verbund eingesetzt. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Produktion, Landnutzung, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. In der Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025 tragen günstige Aussichten auf dem Weltagrarmarkt in Kombination mit einem schwachen Euro dazu bei, dass sich die Einkommen vieler Betriebe in Deutschland bis 2025 positiv entwickeln. Vor dem Hintergrund des Auslaufens der Milchquote sowie steigender Milchpreise wird bis zum Jahr 2025 eine Ausdehnung der Milcherzeugung auf gut 37 Millionen Tonnen projiziert. Jedoch zeigt eine Variationsrechnung, die eine Wiederaufwertung des Euro unterstellt, wie stark gerade die exportorientierten Sektoren (wie z. B. Milch) von der Entwicklung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen abhängig sind. Die aktuelle Verwendung gekoppelter Zahlungen in anderen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten hat nur geringe negative Auswirkungen auf die Landwirtschaft in Deutschland, dem einzigen Mitgliedsstaat mit vollständiger Entkopplung aller Direktzahlungen. Die Reduzierung von Ammoniakemissionen und die Vermeidung regional hoher Flächenbilanzüberschüsse von Stickstoff gehören auch in Zukunft zu den größten Herausforderungen für die Agrarumweltpolitik.