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Der brasilianische Außenminister erläutert die aktuellen sozialen, wirtschaftlichen und politischen Probleme seines Landes sowie die Haltung Brasiliens in regionalen und globalen außenpolitischen Fragen. (SWP-Ort)

IN THE POST COLD WAR WORLD, UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF DECISION MAKING COULD BE THE KEY TO PREDICTING THE BEHAVIOR OF STATES. POLITICAL PRESSURES AT HOME CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT UPON HOW LEADERS FORMULATE THEIR POLICIES ABROAD. THIS ARTICLE ARGUES THAT MARGARET THATCHER AND FIDEL CASTRO MAY HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN PEOPLE MIGHT THINK.

Abstract. After more than a decade of recurring tsunamis,
identification of tsunami deposits, a part of hazard characterization, still
remains a challenging task that is not fully understood. The lack of sufficient
monitoring equipment and rare tsunami frequency are among the primary
obstacles that limit our fundamental understanding of sediment transport
mechanisms during a tsunami. The use of numerical simulations to study
tsunami-induced sediment transport was rare in Indonesia until the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This study aims to couple two hydrodynamic numerical
models in order to reproduce tsunami-induced sediment deposits, i.e., their
locations and thicknesses. Numerical simulations were performed using the
Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model and Delft3D. This study
reconstructed tsunami wave propagation from its source using COMCOT, which
was later combined with Delft3D to map the location of the tsunami deposits
and calculate their thicknesses. Two-dimensional horizontal (2-DH) models
were used as part of both simulation packages. Four sediment transport
formulae were used in the simulations, namely van Rijn 1993, Engelund–Hansen 1967,
Meyer-Peter–Mueller (MPM) 1948, and Soulsby 1997. Lhoong, in the Aceh
Besar District, located approximately 60 km southwest of Banda Aceh, was
selected as the study area. Field data collected in 2015 and 2016 validated
the forward modeling techniques adopted in this study. However, agreements
between numerical simulations and field observations were more robust using
data collected in 2005, i.e., just months after the tsunami (Jaffe et al.,
2006). We conducted pit (trench) tests at select locations to obtain tsunami
deposit thickness and grain size distributions. The resulting numerical
simulations are useful when estimating the locations and the thicknesses of
the tsunami deposits. The agreement between the field data and the numerical
simulations is reasonable despite a trend that overestimates the field observations.

ALTHOUGH MANY EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED THAT DEMOCRACIES ALMOST NEVER WAGE WAR AGAINST ONE ANOTHER, THERE REMAINS SOME DOUBT WHETHER THIS EMPIRICAL LAW APPLIES TO OTHER KINDS OF ARMED CONFLICT. THE PRESENT RESEARCH NOTE COMBINES TWO STREAMS OF EVIDENCE THAT SPEAK TO THIS QUESTION. LOOKING CROSS-NATIONALLY AT THE INCIDENCE OF OVERT MILITARY INTERVENTION BETWEEN 1974 AND 1991, AN INVENTORY OF 225 DISCRETE CASES IS PRODUCED WITH THE DISTRIBUTIONS DISAGGREGATED BY REGIME TYPE. COMPARING INITIATORS AND TARGETS DYADICALLY, THE STUDY UNCOVERS 51 INSTANCES IN WHICH DEMOCRACIES HAVE USED THIS FORM OF COERCIVE DIPLOMACY TO INFLUENCE THE POLICIES AND PRACTICES WITHIN OTHER DEMOCRATIC STATES. PRESENTING THE TRENDS EXHIBITED IN THESE INDICATORS AND JUXTAPOSING THEM WITH AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE OF INTERVENTION, THIS RESEARCH COMMUNICATION ADVANCES SOME OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE OBSTACLES TO CONVERGENCE AMONG RESEARCH FINDINGS IN THE STUDY OF THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE, AND SOME HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE KINDS OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS THAT WARRANT INVESTIGATION WITH THE INVENTORY OF CASES GENERATED.