Abstract. The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM) that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges, was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer, climate.
Solar photovoltaics involves the generation of electricity directly from sunlight when this light shines upon solar cells packaged into a solar module. Silicon is the most common material used to make these photovoltaic cells, similarly to its predominant role in microelectronics, although several other photovoltaic materials are being actively investigated.With the devastating Australian bushfires followed by the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was a difficult and often tragic year for many. Photovoltaics, however, continued on a positive trajectory with record levels installed globally. Highlights were a marked change in attitude by the International Energy Agency (IEA), billing itself as "the world's authority on energy" but with an appallingly poor past record in understanding solar's likely impact. In the 2020 issue of the IEA's flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook 2020, a marked change in emphasis is noted including the statement: "With sharp cost reductions over the past decade, solar PV is consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen." Under the banner of "Solar becomes the new king of electricity", solar is projected to account for most new electricity generation out to 2040, despite the IEA still underestimating likely installation rates by a huge margin. Another 2020 highlight has been the global manufacturing industry's almost complete adoption of UNSW PERC cell technology, where PERC stands for "passivated emitter and rear cell", conceived and perfected at UNSW in the 1980s and 1990s. Over 90% of global production in 2020 was PERC-based, up from almost zero per cent in 2015. ACAP played a key role in this transition, the most significant in the industry over the last 40 years, through the hydrogenation work initiated and led by the late Professor Stuart Wenham. PERC has led to a new surge in solar cost reductions not only through the increased energy conversion efficiency it offers but also through its increased functionality. This includes bifacial operation at low cost, boosting system output by 5–20% via light incident on the rear of solar modules, and large-wafer compatibility, due to the rear patterning required with PERC allowing cutting into smaller cells after fabrication. Larger wafers have led to a push to larger module sizes over the past few years, reducing assembly, transportation and installation costs.Australia leads the world in rooftop solar installations. The lead in small systems (<100 kW) was increased during 2020 with an additional 3 gigawatts installed during the year, a 40% increase over 2019, the previous record year, with a similar increase in large commercial systems. Solar's contribution to electricity generation in the Australian National Electricity Market increased to 9.7% averaged over 2020, likely to exceed 12% average in 2021. Even more importantly, this strong solar contribution has significantly improved the power network's ability to meet peaks in electricity demand during summer heatwaves, where solar is proving much more reliable than conventional coal generators, whether new or aging.Also, on the international front, annual global photovoltaic installations increased to a new record of 145 gigawatts installed in 2020, according to market analysts. Photovoltaics also reinforced its position as one of the lowest cost options for electricity production yet developed, with wholesale module selling prices dropping 16% from 2019 averaged over the year. The lowest bid for the long-term supply of solar via a power purchase agreement decreased to US$13.12/MWh in August 2020. In breaking news as this report goes to press, this figure was reduced to US$10.40/MWh in early 2021, or an incredible US 1 cent/kWh, in normal household units!Australia has played a major role in achieving these very low costs and is expected to play a key role in future cost reductions through the ongoing activities of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP), documented in this 2020 Annual Report.This is the eighth annual ACAP report, with ACAP activities supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). ACAP aims to significantly accelerate photovoltaic development by leveraging development of "over the horizon" photovoltaic technology, providing a pipeline of improved technology for increased performance and ongoing cost reduction. A second aim is to provide high quality training opportunities for the next generation of photovoltaic researchers, with one targeted outcome being to consolidate Australia's position as the photovoltaic research and educational hub of the Asia-Pacific manufacturing region. In achieving these aims, ACAP works with a wide range of both localand international partners.ACAP came into being on 1 February 2013 after the signing of a Head Agreement between the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and ARENA. During 2013, related Collaboration Agreements were signed between UNSW and the other ACAP nodes, Australian National University (ANU), University of Melbourne (UoM), Monash University, University of Queensland (UQ) and CSIRO (Materials Science and Engineering, Melbourne) and, additionally, with the ACAP industrial partners, Suntech Research and Development, Australia (SRDA) (partnership now transferred to Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd), Trina Solar Ltd, BlueScope Steel and BT Imaging, and subsequently with PV Lighthouse, Greatcell Pty Ltd and RayGen Resources Pty Ltd. Our major international partners include the NSF-DOE Engineering Research Center for Quantum Energy and Sustainable Solar Technologies (QESST), based at Arizona State University, and the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as well as the Molecular Foundry, Berkeley, Stanford University, Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Korean Green Energy Institute.
United States National Science Foundation (NSF) ; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom ; Max-Planck-Society (MPS) ; State of Niedersachsen/Germany ; Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) ; French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ; Australian Research Council ; International Science Linkages program of the Commonwealth of Australia ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India ; Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educaci, Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research ; National Science Centre of Poland ; European Union ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration ; Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) ; Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO) ; National Research Foundation of Korea ; Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; Natural Science and Engineering Research Council, Canada ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Carnegie Trust ; Leverhulme Trust ; David and Lucile Packard Foundation ; Research Corporation ; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation ; NSF ; STFC ; MPS ; INFN ; CNRS ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: 1362895 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006285/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006285/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006242/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N00003X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000064/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000954/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4 x 10(-5) and 9.4 x 10(-4) Mpc(-3) yr(-1) at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves.
Advanced LIGO ; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom ; Australian Research Council ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educacio, Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; National Science Centre of Poland ; FOCUS Programme of Foundation for Polish Science ; European Union ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO) ; National Research Foundation of Korea ; Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Research Corporation, Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan ; Kavli Foundation ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000954/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006242/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000072/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000633/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M000931/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: PPA/G/S/2002/00652 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N00003X/1 ; We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 deg(2) to 20 deg(2) will require at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of similar to 2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should the third LIGO detector be relocated to India as expected, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.
Australian Research Council ; International Science Linkages program of the Commonwealth of Australia ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science and Engineering Research Board, India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat ; Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter - Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research ; National Science Centre of Poland ; European Union ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration ; Hungarian Scientific Research Fund ; Lyon Institute of Origins ; National Research Foundation of Korea ; Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Carnegie Trust ; Leverhulme Trust ; David and Lucile Packard Foundation ; Research Corporation ; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation ; Conselleria d'Educacio ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: 1362895 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006285/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000064/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000954/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006242/1 Gravitational Waves ; In this paper we present the results of the first low frequency all-sky search of continuous gravitational wave signals conducted on Virgo VSR2 and VSR4 data. The search covered the full sky, a frequency range between 20 and 128 Hz with a range of spin-down between -1.0 x 10(-10) and +1.5 x 10(-11) Hz/s, and was based on a hierarchical approach. The starting point was a set of short fast Fourier transforms, of length 8192 s, built from the calibrated strain data. Aggressive data cleaning, in both the time and frequency domains, has been done in order to remove, as much as possible, the effect of disturbances of instrumental origin. On each data set a number of candidates has been selected, using the Frequency Hough transform in an incoherent step. Only coincident candidates among VSR2 and VSR4 have been examined in order to strongly reduce the false alarm probability, and the most significant candidates have been selected. The criteria we have used for candidate selection and for the coincidence step greatly reduce the harmful effect of large instrumental artifacts. Selected candidates have been subject to a follow-up by constructing a new set of longer fast Fourier transforms followed by a further incoherent analysis, still based on the Frequency Hough transform. No evidence for continuous gravitational wave signals was found, and therefore we have set a population-based joint VSR2-VSR4 90% confidence level upper limit on the dimensionless gravitational wave strain in the frequency range between 20 and 128 Hz. This is the first all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves conducted, on data of ground-based interferometric detectors, at frequencies below 50 Hz. We set upper limits in the range between about 10(-24) and 2 x 10(-23) at most frequencies. Our upper limits on signal strain show an improvement of up to a factor of similar to 2 with respect to the results of previous all-sky searches at frequencies below 80 Hz.
United States National Science Foundation (NSF) ; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom ; MaxPlanck- Society (MPS) ; State of Niedersachsen/Germany ; Australian Research Council ; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research ; EGO consortium ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science AMP; Engineering Research Board (SERB), India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educacio Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; National Science Centre of Poland ; European Union ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO) ; National Research Foundation of Korea, Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Leverhulme Trust ; Research Corporation, Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan ; Kavli Foundation ; NSF ; STFC ; MPS ; INFN ; CNRS ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; State of Niedersachsen/Germany: GEO600 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000072/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: PPA/G/S/2002/00652 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J00166X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M006735/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006285/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006285/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: 1362895 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M000931/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000962/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000938/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006242/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/G504284/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000954/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N00003X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000633/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; The discovery of the gravitational-wave (GW) source GW150914 with the Advanced LIGO detectors provides the first observational evidence for the existence of binary black hole (BH) systems that inspiral and merge within the age of the universe. Such BH mergers have been predicted in two main types of formation models, involving isolated binaries in galactic fields or dynamical interactions in young and old dense stellar environments. The measured masses robustly demonstrate that relatively heavy BHs (greater than or similar to 25M(circle dot)) can form in nature. This discovery implies relatively weak massive-star winds and thus the formation of GW150914 in an environment with a metallicity lower than about 1/2 of the solar value. The rate of binary-BH (BBH) mergers inferred from the observation of GW150914 is consistent with the higher end of rate predictions (greater than or similar to 1 Gpc(-3) yr(-1)) from both types of formation models. The low measured redshift (z similar or equal to 0.1) of GW150914 and the low inferred metallicity of the stellar progenitor imply either BBH formation in a low-mass galaxy in the local universe and a prompt merger, or formation at high redshift with a time delay between formation and merger of several Gyr. This discovery motivates further studies of binary-BH formation astrophysics. It also has implications for future detections and studies by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, and GW detectors in space.
United States National Science Foundation (NSF) ; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom ; Max-Planck Society ; State of Niedersachsen/Germany ; Australian Research Council ; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research ; EGO consortium ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India ; Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educacio Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; National Science Centre of Poland ; European Commission ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) ; Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO) ; National Research Foundation of Korea ; Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada ; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Russian Foundation for Basic Research ; Leverhulme Trust ; Research Corporation ; Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan ; Kavli Foundation ; Australian Government ; National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy ; Government of Western Australia ; United States Department of Energy ; United States National Science Foundation ; Ministry of Science and Education of Spain ; Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom ; Higher Education Funding Council for England ; National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ; Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago ; Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State University ; Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas AM University ; Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos ; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) ; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao ; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft ; Collaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey ; National Science Foundation ; MINECO ; Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa ; European Research Council under European Union's Seventh Framework Programme ; ERC ; NASA (United States) ; DOE (United States) ; IN2P3/CNRS (France) ; CEA/Irfu (France) ; ASI (Italy) ; INFN (Italy) ; MEXT (Japan) ; KEK (Japan) ; JAXA (Japan) ; Wallenberg Foundation ; Swedish Research Council ; National Space Board (Sweden) ; NASA in the United States ; DRL in Germany ; INAF for the project Gravitational Wave Astronomy with the first detections of adLIGO and adVIRGO experiments ; ESA (Denmark) ; ESA (France) ; ESA (Germany) ; ESA (Italy) ; ESA (Switzerland) ; ESA (Spain) ; German INTEGRAL through DLR grant ; US under NASA Grant ; National Science Foundation PIRE program grant ; Hubble Fellowship ; KAKENHI of MEXT Japan ; JSPS ; Optical and Near-Infrared Astronomy Inter-University Cooperation Program - MEXT ; UK Science and Technology Facilities Council ; ERC Advanced Investigator Grant ; Lomonosov Moscow State University Development programm ; Moscow Union OPTICA ; Russian Science Foundation ; National Research Foundation of South Africa ; Australian Government Department of Industry and Science and Department of Education (National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy: NCRIS) ; NVIDIA at Harvard University ; University of Hawaii ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Planetary Defense Office ; Queen's University Belfast ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration through Planetary Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate ; European Research Council under European Union's Seventh Framework Programme/ERC ; STFC grants ; European Union FP7 programme through ERC ; STFC through an Ernest Rutherford Fellowship ; FONDECYT ; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO) ; NASA in the US ; UK Space Agency in the UK ; Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) in Italy ; Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia (MinCyT) ; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnologicas (CONICET) from Argentina ; USA NSF PHYS ; NSF ; ICREA ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; UK Space Agency ; National Science Foundation: AST-1138766 ; National Science Foundation: AST-1238877 ; MINECO: AYA2012-39559 ; MINECO: ESP2013-48274 ; MINECO: FPA2013-47986 ; Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa: SEV-2012-0234 ; ERC: 240672 ; ERC: 291329 ; ERC: 306478 ; German INTEGRAL through DLR grant: 50 OG 1101 ; US under NASA Grant: NNX15AU74G ; National Science Foundation PIRE program grant: 1545949 ; Hubble Fellowship: HST-HF-51325.01 ; KAKENHI of MEXT Japan: 24103003 ; KAKENHI of MEXT Japan: 15H00774 ; KAKENHI of MEXT Japan: 15H00788 ; JSPS: 15H02069 ; JSPS: 15H02075 ; ERC Advanced Investigator Grant: 267697 ; Russian Science Foundation: 16-12-00085 ; Russian Science Foundation: RFBR15-02-07875 ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Planetary Defense Office: NNX14AM74G ; National Aeronautics and Space Administration through Planetary Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate: NNX08AR22G ; European Research Council under European Union's Seventh Framework Programme/ERC: 291222 ; STFC grants: ST/I001123/1 ; STFC grants: ST/L000709/1 ; European Union FP7 programme through ERC: 320360 ; FONDECYT: 3140326 ; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO): CE110001020 ; USA NSF PHYS: 1156600 ; NSF: 1242090 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000668/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M000966/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000709/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J00166X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K00090X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000633/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/H001972/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000733/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000757/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M001334/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M003035/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I001123/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N00003X/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000072/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; UK Space Agency: ST/P002196/1 ; This Supplement provides supporting material for Abbott et al. (2016a). We briefly summarize past electromagnetic (EM) follow-up efforts as well as the organization and policy of the current EM follow-up program. We compare the four probability sky maps produced for the gravitational-wave transient GW150914, and provide additional details of the EM follow-up observations that were performed in the different bands.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.