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Indigenous policy is a complex domain motivated by a range of social, cultural, political and economic issues. The Council of Australian Governments 'closing

The simulated estimates of Indigenous labour force status used in this paper are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics projections of Indigenous population to the year 2000 and several reasonable assumptions about the growth in demand for Indigenous labour. The reliance of Indigenous workforce on the continued growth of the Community Development Employment Projects scheme is highlighted by the likely falls in the employment/population ratio and the large increases in unemployment that will result from any budget-induced curtailment of the scheme's growth. The key dynamic of these simulations is the rapidly growing working-age population. The other prominent factor underlying the results is the ongoing disadvantage of the Indigenous labour force including: poor educational attainment, high arrest rates, low life expectancy and locational disadvantage. One of the major challenges for policy makers within the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission and other government portfolios will be to quickly find alternatives and more permanent means of creating opportunities for new entrants to the Indigenous workforce.

The Community Development Employment Projects (CDEP) scheme is an example of an Indigenous‐specific program that combines community development and labour market program elements. This paper describes the nature of CDEP employment in 2008 and the extent to which it changed between 1994 and 2008. The paper also compares a selection of economic and social outcomes of CDEP participants with those of persons who were employed outside of CDEP, unemployed and not‐in‐the‐labour‐force (NILF) in 2008 and the extent to which these associations changed between 1994 and 2008. This paper also aims to assess the extent to which CDEP participation is consistent with the community development objectives of the scheme.The analysis shows that the nature of the jobs in which CDEP participants work and the experiences it provides to workers have changed little despite substantial changes in underlying policy settings. CDEP participation is associated with the maintenance of language and culture as well as facilitating an ongoing connection to traditional lands. Participation in the scheme is associated with better social and economic outcomes compared to those of the unemployed or those NILF, but much worse outcomes than those for people working in non‐CDEP employment.

Indigenous policy is a complex domain motivated by a range of social, cultural, political and economic issues. The Council of Australian Governments 'closing

Closing the gaps between Indigenous and other Australian outcomes is a central concern of contemporary policy. The Re‐Offending Database (ROD), which has been collated by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), offers a unique opportunity to analyse data quality issues in an important source of administrative data for Indigenous people. This paper provides several independent estimates of the population of Indigenous offenders by estimating the number of people with unknown Indigenous status who are likely to be identified as Indigenous in other circumstances. The main finding is that the Indigenous population of offenders is substantially undercounted in administrative data collections. The failure to account for this will understate Indigenous disadvantage or the 'gap' between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous outcomes.

Current policy often focuses on 'Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage' by simultaneously addressing multiple deficits that many Indigenous people experience relative to other Australians. International literature often frames such issues in terms of the contested concepts of social exclusion and social inclusion. This paper attempts to analyse what Indigenous social inclusion might look like in a plural society such as Australia. In addition to contextualising Australian policy in broader debates, this paper also briefly introduces several relevant theories of justice, diversity and Indigenous rights to provide a theoretical framework for conceptualising social inclusion. The article concludes with some reflections on some practical suggestions to move the debate forward. In principle, enhancing Indigenous social and political participation in policy design should both increase inclusion and reduce disadvantage by enhancing the effectiveness of programs that have a substantial Indigenous client base.

Current government policy seeks to achieve 'practical reconciliation' between Indigenous and other Australians by focusing on closing the gap in the key social policy areas of health, housing, education and employment. Reflecting on progress to date, Altman and Hunter (2003) have analysed a range of Indigenous socioeconomic outcomes over the reconciliation decade of 1991 to 2001 concluding that there is little statistical evidence so far from census information to indicate a narrowing of the gap in the manner sought.

Current government policy seeks to achieve 'practical reconciliation' between Indigenous and other Australians by focusing on closing the gap in the key social policy areas of health, housing, education and employment. Reflecting on progress to date, Altman and Hunter (2003) have analysed a range of Indigenous socioeconomic outcomes over the reconciliation decade of 1991 to 2001 concluding that there is little statistical evidence so far from census information to indicate a narrowing of the gap in the manner sought.

To date, the analysis of the reasons for the labour market disadvantage of Indigenous Australians has been constrained by the absence of longitudinal data on labour force status. This article uses the only extant large-scale longitudinal survey of the labour force outcomes of Indigenous Australians to analyse both labour market dynamics and the determinants of labour market success. The analysis reveals high rates of movements between labour force states by Indigenous Australians and that the Indigenous unemployed were around one-half as likely to move to employment over a 15-month period as were the non-Indigenous unemployed. The analysis presented in this article highlights the need for further longitudinal surveys of the labour market and social circumstances of Indigenous Australians.

This paper sets out to examine, at the national level, changes in the socioeconomic status of Indigenous Australians during the decade 1991–2001, a period that closely matches 'the reconciliation decade'. The information used is from three five-yearly censuses undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 1991, 1996 and 2001. Comparisons are made both of change in absolute wellbeing for the total Indigenous population, and of relative wellbeing between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Five broad categories of socioeconomic status are used in the analysis—employment, education, income, housing and health. The decade is divided into two five-year periods, 1991–1996 and 1996–2001. In 1996, there was a change in Federal government so that for the first time since Indigenous Australians were included in the census in 1971, there is a close match between political and census cycles. This facilitates a comparative assessment of the broad Indigenous affairs policy performance of the Hawke and Keating governments from 1991 to 1996, and that of the Howard governments between 1996 and 2001. This comparative analysis is important because there has been an attempt to change the broad approach in Indigenous policy since 1996. According to recent policy discourse, the period 1991 to 1996 saw a focus on both 'symbolic' (Indigenous rights) and 'practical' (socioeconomic improvements) reconciliation, while the period since 1996 has focused increasingly on 'practical' reconciliation only, in an attempt to reduce the material disadvantage of Indigenous Australians. The paper develops a 'scorecard' and shows that, in absolute terms, it is difficult to differentiate the performance of governments pre- and post-1996. However, in relative terms—that is when comparing the relative wellbeing of Indigenous people as a whole with all other Australians—there is some disparity between the two periods, with the early period 1991–1996 clearly outperforming the more recent period. In conclusion we note that while practical reconciliation forms the rhetorical basis for Indigenous policy development since 1996, there is no evidence that the Howard governments have delivered better outcomes for Indigenous Australians than their predecessors. Indigenous socioeconomic problems are deeply entrenched and do not seem to be abating even during a period of rapid economic growth at the national level. It is of particular concern that some of the relative gains made between 1991 and 1996 appear to have been offset by the relatively poor performance of Indigenous outcomes between 1996 and 2001.

The release of 2001 Census data provides an opportunity to evaluate the Howard government's performance in Indigenous affairs in broad terms. One major policy shift has been the call for a more 'practical' reconciliation that attempts to address the immediate needs of Indigenous people in areas such as employment, health, housing and education. If practical reconciliation were a reality, then one would expect there to be some evidence of a convergence in the last two censuses in the economic and educational status of Indigenous and other Australians. Furthermore, enhancing Indigenous education is important in ensuring that Indigenous engagement with the mainstream economy is sustainable, especially in view of the skill bias evident in recent economic growth. This paper analyses recent trends in the engagement of Indigenous people with the Australian education system between 1986 and 2001. A cohort analysis of changes in educational participation is presented, along with an analysis of the differences between the level and type of educational qualifications of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians over the last four censuses. The main finding is that while there have been some absolute improvements in Indigenous educational outcomes over the period 1986 to 2001, these gains are less evident when measured relative to non-Indigenous outcomes. The lack of improvement relative to the non-Indigenous population is seen not only in the proportion of the population with post-secondary qualifications, but also in the proportion of Indigenous teenagers staying at school. By any measure the Indigenous population remains severely disadvantaged. Another finding is that for younger age groups the non-Indigenous population has a higher participation rate in postsecondary education than the Indigenous population. On a more positive note, older Indigenous people are actually more likely to be enrolled in a postsecondary course than their non-Indigenous counterparts—probably as a response to the history of disadvantage within the education sector.