Suchergebnisse

This month voters in the republic of Montenegro will choose its future direction. But the decision of this tiny electorate, smaller than the number electing a mayor or council in many cities, may have much wider international implications. Adapted from the source document.

The ramifications of Kosovo's & Montenegro's respective independence movements for Balkan regional politics are considered. Although negotiations between Kosovar & Serbian officials have continued throughout 2006, several factors that will obstruct Serbia's recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign nation are highlighted including the historical importance of Kosovo to Serbian civilization. Indeed, it is contended that the negotiations will likely result in an impasse & the United Nations Security Council will determine the extent of Kosovo's independence largely upon the impending recommendation of former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, who is overseeing the talks; the question of whether the representatives of the Peoples Republic of China & Russia will support monitored independence for Kosovo is then pondered. Additional attention is dedicated to examining the conditions for Montenegro's independence & the implications of an outcome on the May 2006 referendum in which majority support for independence is reached but the 55% pro-independence threshold is not met. J. W. Parker

Six years after the end of the war over Kosovo, talks on its future are set to begin. They will be a led by a senior envoy appointed by UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan, and they may well end in what is called 'conditional independence'. What this actually means remains to be seen, but destabilising consequences, particularly in Serbia, cannot be ruled out. EU diplomats are hoping that the good news of a 'Stabilisation and Association' agreement with Serbia, which they hope to achieve in 2006, can help counteract the simultaneous bad news of the loss of Kosovo and likely secession of Montenegro. (Survival / SWP)

A review essay on nine books discussing former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic, his genocidal actions in Kosovo in the former Yugoslavia, & his trial at the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands. Contrasting accounts of Milosevic are offered in books by his unofficial biographer, a Serbian nationalist, & a former US diplomat-turned-international-activist, who offers a comprehensive overview of Milosevic's role in the destruction of Yugoslavia. Other works examine (1) the role of Greece in supporting Milosevic's regime & the Serbian nationalist cause; (2) crimes committed by Albanian & Kosovo Serb extremists; (3) the postwar situation & the work of the UN Interim Administration in Kosovo; (4) the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's violation of international humanitarian law in its bombing of Kosovo; (5) the post-Milosevic administration of Vojislav Kostunica; & (6) Serbian history & future directions. Several reports on the Kosovo situation by international commissions & human rights groups are also reviewed. K. Hyatt Stewart

The Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq, created in the wake of the Gulf War in 1991, is abuzz with a sense of foreboding and excitement. There is fear that Saddam Hussein may take his revenge on the Kurds for any US-led attack, and that the Turks could intervene. Ihe Turks fear that any post-war Iraqi Kurdish federal unit will be a stepping stone to eventual independence. Although Kurdish politicians will not say so publicly, they certainly hope that this indeed will be the case. The two main parties have put aside their differences and reconvened the Kurdish parliament. There are also plans to drive out an Islamic fundamentalist group holed up in the mountains, allegedly supported by Iran, Iraq and al-Qaeda. The Kurds may do well out of any US-led offensive on Iraq. If the future Iraq is federal and democratic, the Kurds will have a powerful voice in Baghdad and control of their own affairs - and future generations will be far better placed to achieve the long-term aim of secession and independence. (Survival / SWP)