Media Coverage and the Flow of Voters in Multiparty Systems: The 1994 National Elections in Holland and Germany
In: International journal of public opinion research, Band 11, Heft 3, S. 233-256
ISSN: 0954-2892
Positive news is advantageous for a political party, but the effects of negative news are less obvious, especially in a multiparty system. Three models are outlined: (1) an indecision model, in which negative information would push voters to the undecided category; (2) a proportional model, in which voters would move to other parties in proportion to their share of the vote; & (3) a proximity model, in which the shift would be to parties holding viewpoints similar to those of the criticized party. These three models were tested using the ideodynamic model for the 1994 elections in the Netherlands & Germany. The explanatory variables were content analysis data obtained daily for major print & electronic news media. The dependent variable was weekly survey data of preferences of voters. The analysis showed the proportional model to be the least plausible, & the proximity model the most promising. Campaign strategists starting from the proximity model will both promote negative news about other parties & adopt their issue positions. 6 Tables, 3 Figures, 31 References. Adapted from the source document.