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The smoking history generator (SHG) developed by the National Cancer Institute simulates individual life/smoking histories that serve as inputs for the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) lung cancer models. In this chapter, we review the SHG inputs, describe its outputs, and outline the methodology behind it. As an example, we use the SHG to simulate individual life histories for individuals born between 1890 and 1984 for each of the CISNET smoking scenarios and use those simulated histories to compute the corresponding smoking prevalence over the period 1975–2000.

Aim To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Design, setting and participants Netherlands SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Measurements Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings With a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by asmuch as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145 000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package. Conclusions Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/ MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.

Purpose: To provide tobacco product use patterns for US adults by sociodemographic group. Design: A secondary analysis of Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (2014-15), National Health Interview Survey (2015), and Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2015-16). Setting: United States. Sample: Three nationally representative samples of adults (N = 28,070-155,067). Measures: All possible combinations of cigarette, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS), other combustible product, and smokeless tobacco use, defined as current use every day or some days. Analysis: Weighted population prevalence and proportion among tobacco users of exclusive, dual, and polyuse patterns by sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, and age. Results: Exclusive cigarette use was the most prevalent pattern (10.9-12.8% of US population). Dual and polyuse were less prevalent at the population level (2.6-5.2% and 0.3-1.3%, respectively) but represented 16.7-25.5% of product use among tobacco users. Cigarette plus ENDS use was similar by sex, but men were more likely to be dual users of cigarettes plus other combustibles or smokeless tobacco. Among race/ethnic subgroups, non-Hispanic (NH) Whites were most likely to use cigarettes plus ENDS, while NH Blacks were most likely to use cigarettes plus other combustibles. Dual and polyuse were generally less common among adults with higher education, income, and age. Conclusion: Differences in product use patterns by sociodemographic group likely represent different risk profiles with important implications for resulting health disparities.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Government regulations of nicotine vaping products (NVP) have evolved rapidly over the past decade. The impact of NVP regulatory environment and vaping on cigarette demand in unknown. The current study aims to investigate whether or not respondents' reported cigarette demand, as measured by a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, varies with 1) smoking status, 2) vaping status, or 3) NVP regulatory environment (country used as proxy). PARTICIPANTS: 10,316 adult smokers. SETTING: Australia (AU), Canada (CA), England (EN), and the Untied States (US). DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey data from Wave 1 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey (2016). METHODS: Data for this cross-sectional study were from 10,316 adult smokers who participated in Wave 1 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey, which was conducted in 2016 in Australia (AU), Canada (CA), England (EN), and the United States (US). The purchase task asked smokers to estimate how many cigarettes they would purchase for consumption in a single day across multiple cigarette prices. Overall sensitivity of cigarette consumption to price increases was quantified to index cigarette demand elasticity whereas estimated consumption when cigarettes are free was used to index cigarette demand intensity. MEASUREMENTS: A hypothetical purchase task asked smokers to estimate how many cigarettes they would purchase for consumption in a single day across multiple cigarette prices. Responses were used to derive measures of cigarette demand. Overall sensitivity of cigarette consumption to price increases was quantified to index cigarette demand elasticity whereas estimated consumption when cigarettes are free was used to index cigarette demand intensity. RESULTS: A majority of the non-daily smokers had previously smoked daily (72.3%); daily vapers were more likely to be former daily smokers (89.9%) compared to non-daily vapers (70.1%) and non-vapers (69.2%) ...