Blogbeitrag
#1617. September 2024
Monthly Median Income
Blog: Econbrowser
From Motio Research, August 2024: Source: MotioResearch.
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#1717. September 2024
FT-Ross/Michigan Poll on Views of Candidates' Economic Policies
Blog: Econbrowser
Who would do better, according to the FT today: Source: FT, 16 Sep 2024. And who would benefit from the policies of respective candidates? Source: FT, 16 Sep 2024.
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#1817. September 2024
Business Cycle Indicators for August – NBER BCDC and Others
Blog: Econbrowser
With the industrial production release today (+0.8% vs. +0.2% m/m consensus), we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER's BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 9/6 for NFP (blue +), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), […]
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#1917. September 2024
Steve Kamin: "The Fed Is (Nearly) the World's Most Hawkish Central Bank"
Blog: Econbrowser
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs: So… …with inflation nearly down to target levels while signs of economic slowing mount, the Fed can afford to start reversing its exceptional monetary tightening. So in today's post, Kamin makes the case for 0.5% cut: If the economy is close to balance and inflation likely to […]
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#2016. September 2024
BOFIT: "Russia continued on a more moderate growth path in July.."
Blog: Econbrowser
From BOFIT: Russian economic growth slowed significantly in June, but sustained its lower pace in July. According to Russian economic development ministry's preliminary estimate, on-year GDP growth in June and July was around 3 %, down from 4.5 % in the April-May period. The general indicator comprising Russia's five core production sectors suggested that the volume of […]
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#2116. September 2024
Manufacturing: When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Blog: Econbrowser
Lest we forget, a visual recap of what exactly happened when Trump started announcing Section 232 and Section 301 measures. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment (bold black, left scale), hours (light blue, left scale), production (green, left scale), valued added (red, left scale), all in logs 2018M07=0; and capacity utilization (purple, right scale). Source: BLS, Federal […]
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#2216. September 2024
Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News
Blog: Econbrowser
From the Michigan survey of consumers: Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index (black, right scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for sentiment is preliminary; for news sentiment, through […]
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#2316. September 2024
When Tariffs Last Bloomed – Soybean Edition
Blog: Econbrowser
Or, have US soybean exports recovered since Trump last reigned? Not in volumes. Source: Colusi, et al. (2024). Marking for trade war in 2018 by author. 2023 exports are below 2017 levels. USDA forecast for 2024/25 marketing year (9/1/24-8/31/25) is 1.875 bn bushels, vs 1.6 bn bushels for 2023/24, or about 17% increase.
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#2416. September 2024
Who Is in the Recession Camp Now? [Updated to 9/16]
Blog: Econbrowser
[Post originally published on 8/18] It's not a big one, but here's an incomplete list: David Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) [as of 8/8] Drew Matus (MetLife) [as of 8/8] Stephanie Pomboy (MacroMavens) [as of 8/8] Nancy Lazar (Piper Sandler) [as of 8/8] Mish Shedlock [as of 8/8] Zerohedge (aka Peter St. Onge, Ph.D.) [as of 8/8] […]
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#2515. September 2024
Doug Irwin on CNN: McKinley and Tariffs
Blog: Econbrowser
On CNN yesterday, "Why Trump's trade hero turned away from tariffs": To learn more about tariffs and the role they play in US history, I talked to Douglas Irwin, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and the author of multiple books, including "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy." In addition to […]
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#2615. September 2024
FT-Booth Survey of Macroeconomists: Whose Platform Is More Inflationary/Deficit Expanding?
Blog: Econbrowser
From the September survey, as shown in yesterday's FT: Source: C. Smith, FT, 14 Sep 2024. It's amazing to me that there're 3% of respondents that say the Harris platform is more inflationary. Of course, with 37 respondents, that's one economist. Almost as surprising is that 11% (3 respondents) say the Harris platform would induce […]
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#2714. September 2024
August 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
Blog: Econbrowser
Released yesterday: Based upon the S&P Global national forecast, DoR concludes: Wisconsin employment is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Wisconsin's unemployment rate was 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, a full percentage point below the US rate of 4.0%. The forecast expects Wisconsin's unemployment rate to peak at 3.6% in 2027, compared […]
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#2814. September 2024
FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?
Blog: Econbrowser
For GDP, no recession on the short horizon: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles), SPF August (tan line), WSJ July (light green), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, and author's calculations. There's been a shift upward […]
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#2913. September 2024
End-of-Week Nowcasts
Blog: Econbrowser
St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue square) and of 9/4 (blue open square), NY Fed 9/13 (red triangle-line), St. Louis Fed 9/13 nowcast (light green inverted triangle), 9/6 nowcast (inverted open triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), […]
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#3013. September 2024
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up, Inflation Expectations Down
Blog: Econbrowser
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). The News Index observation for September is through 9/8/2024. Michigan sentiment for September is […]