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AbstractWho will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the small N problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.

Les auteurs cherchent à établir s'il existe une relation entre la conjoncture économique québécoise et l'appui au gouvernement du Québec. Ils analysent à cette fin une fonction de popularité intégrant des variables économiques de base et certaines variables politiques. Les principaux résultats indiquent l'existence d'un vote économique au Québec, confirmant en cela les observations de travaux antérieurs portant sur certaines élections québécoises. De plus, les électeurs québécois semblent plus sensibles au problème du chômage qu'à celui de l'inflation lorsque vient le temps de traduire leurs perceptions économiques en jugements sur la performance du gouvernement.

Abstract.  While the causes of declining political trust have been investigated extensively in the literature, much less empirical effort has been devoted to the study of its behavioural implications. This article focuses on the decline of trust in Canada during the period 1984 to 1993, and on its effect on Canadian voting behaviour. We build upon M.J. Hetherington's ('The effect of political trust on the presidential vote, 1968–1996', American Political Science Review 93 (1999): 311–326) work to explore the impact of political trust on the vote and on abstention in a multiparty electoral context. Multinomial logit estimations are performed using individual‐level survey data from three Canadian federal elections. While distrust is shown to significantly affect electoral participation, thus acting as an alienating factor, the results indicate that decreasing trust acts more as a motivation to support third‐party alternatives. The study further demonstrates that, in a multiple party setting, 'old‐line' major parties electorally suffer from declining political trust, but some third parties benefit more from this phenomenon than others. Contrary to what was the case in the previous two elections, distrustful individuals in 1993 were more likely to vote for the Reform Party or the Bloc Québécois than support the New Democratic Party.

While the causes of declining political trust have been investigated extensively in the literature, much less empirical effort has been devoted to the study of its behavioral implications. This article focuses on the decline of trust in Canada during the period 1984 to 1993, & on its effect on Canadian voting behavior. We build upon M. J. Hetherington's ('The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968-1996.' American Political Science Review 93 [1999]: 311-326) work to explore the impact of political trust on the vote & on abstention in a multiparty electoral context. Multinomial logit estimations are performed using individual-level survey data from three Canadian federal elections. While distrust is shown to significantly affect electoral participation, thus acting as an alienating factor, the results indicate that decreasing trust acts more as a motivation to support third-party alternatives. The study further demonstrates that, in a multiple party setting, 'old-line' major parties electorally suffer from declining political trust, but some third parties benefit more from this phenomenon than others. Contrary to what was the case in the previous two elections, distrustful individuals in 1993 were more likely to vote for the Reform Party or the Bloc Quebecois than support the New Democratic Party. 6 Tables, 1 Figure, 4 Appendixes, 65 References. Adapted from the source document.

The media have greatly changed electoral campaigns & modified conditions of political governance in Canada as elsewhere. One can see the political dynamic in democracy as a triangle of interaction between the elected, the electorate, & the media. Considered here is whether a decline in Canadian citizens' confidence in political institutions & politicians can be traced to an increasingly negative view of politics & an orientation toward partisan conflicts on the part of the media. These are serious grievances against the media, which are reproached for undermining the legitimacy of elected officials & exercising undue influence on their decisions as well as undermining public trust in the democratic system. Robert M. Entman (1989) writes "The press is supposed to enhance democracy both by stimulating the citizenry's political interest & by providing the specific information they need to hold government accountable." This article reviews the case against the media, examining the evidence produced to support the accusations, & concludes that the picture is neither rosy nor black but contains elements of both. It is hoped that the recommendations made here will prompt the media to adjust their focus & resume their responsibility to enhance the quality of democracy in Canada. J. Stanton

Considering Prime Minister Kim Campbell of Canada as a case study, this article shows that newly selected leaders of governing parties in parliamentary systems can expect indulgent, depoliticized, less mediated press coverage following their selection as prime minister during a leadership convention. This type of coverage is shown to have a positive impact on the standing of the party. It is also demonstrated that popularity following a successful leadership convention is little guarantee of success during an eventual campaign because voters, candidates, and the press all fulfill different roles and operate within different environments during the various phases of the election cycle.

Examines media coverage of Prime Minister Kim Campbell, at the coronation, pre-campaign,and campaign periods, the evolution of Conservative support, and the impact of TV news on her image and on voter intentions.

AbstractThis study deals with the question of economic voting in Canada, notably that the electoral impact of economic perceptions with regard to the performance of the federal government has not been homogeneous among the whole Canadian electorate during the period of Liberal dominance in Quebec. Contrary to our Findings on voters in other provinces, francophone Quebeckers did not vote according to their judgment of the government on economic matters, their fidelity to the Liberal party having inhibited them in this respect. These results suggest that the absence of economic voting in Quebec during the Liberal regime may clarify, at least in part, the puzzling conclusions of previous research, that show a fragile relationship between the economy and the electoral outcomes in Canada. These findings break new ground for a better understanding of the specific electoral rationality used by minorities in long-established democracies.

Examines the electoral impact of economic perceptions, individual and structural political variables impacting the vote, the evolution of the vote in Quebec, and general voting behavior; since 1972, chiefly. Summary in English.

AbstractThis article offers an improved understanding of the often-neglected religious cleavage in Canada. Using data from the 1988 Canadian Election Study, the authors examine the questions of voting intentions, opinion on abortion, support for unions and support for military spending. This article first shows that Roman Catholics have different opinions on these questions than Protestants, but that these differences disappear as Catholics' exposure to the news media increases. The authors also demonstrate that the more religious the Catholics, the more resistant they are to media messages. The largest differences between Catholics and Protestants are thus found between regular churchgoers with low media exposure, while the smallest differences are found between heavily exposed non-practisers.

Examines Catholic and Protestant voting intentions, opinion on abortion, and support fgor unions and for military spending; also discusses effect of news media on these opinions; based on data from the 1988 Canadian Election Study.