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SummaryIn a comparative study to enquire whether parents of twins, especially of dizygotic twins, have a higher frequency of sexual intercourse than parents of singleton infants, data on sociodemographic status, coital frequency and other variables were collected using a postal questionnaire. Parents of all twins born alive in Denmark in 1984 or 1985 were included as cases and a random sample of parents of singleton infants born in the same period were controls. No evidence of any difference in coital frequency was found between parents of twins (neither dizygotic twins nor monozygotic) and parents of singleton infants.

Abstract. Wave conditions in the northern Baltic Proper during windstorm Erwin/Gudrun (January 2005) are analysed based on in situ measurements in three locations and output of operational wave models from the German Weather Forecast Service, the Danish Meteorological Institute and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research. The measured significant wave height reached 7.2 m in the northern Baltic Proper and 4.5 m in the Gulf of Finland. The roughest wave conditions, estimated from the comparison of the forecast and measured data, occurred remote from the sensors, off the coasts of Saaremaa and Latvia where the significant wave height was about 9.5 m. Peak periods exceeded 12 s in a large part of the northern Baltic Proper and in the central part of the Gulf of Finland.

To achieve the goals of the EU Common Fishery Policy (EU CFP) of ecological and economic sustainable fishery and to meet the demands for protection of sensitive habitats under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (EU MSFD), as well as to meet the demands from other marine sectors on occupation of specific sea areas for other uses under the EU Marine Spatial Planning Directive (EU MSPD), it is necessary to establish adequate management strategy evaluation (MSE) tools to evaluate the impacts of the different uses of the sea in a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral context. Such tools are needed to evaluate scenarios of different management strategies in order to inform managers and stakeholders about the impacts and relative performance of different management options in achieving the policy objectives. This demands implementation of MSE tools which encompass the dynamic variability in distribution and abundance of fish resources with high resolution in time and space. Also, this demands integration of bio-economic MSE tools which can evaluate fishing patterns and fisher's decision making, i.e. human behaviour, in allocating their fishing effort with high resolution in time and space. Consequently, these tools must be highly spatial explicit and enable small scale time specific resolution in order to efficiently and realistically evaluating the integrated biological and economic effects of spatial management, and contribute to improving spatial management strategies also taking into account the footpring of the marine capture sector including energy use and efficiency to catch the available fishery resources. The MSPTOOLS project provides new and improved quantitative methods for evaluating stock abundances and distributions with high resolution in time and space by integrating different types of quantitative information as well as by linking biological and bio-economic models and evaluation tools. This has involved development of better tools, methods and integrated models to describe the resources, the fisheries and sensitive habitats/species distribution in relation to each other and identify sustainable fishing areas and conservation areas. The model developments under the project have resulted in a row of manuscripts published and submitted to high ranking scientific peer-reviewed journals and symposia, and those manuscripts are summarised in the present report with proper reference to the main manuscripts. The first summary highlight the main results that were obtained in Rufener et al. (2019a;b) which describes a statistical framework (hereafter LGNB) that was developed to combine commercial fisheries and scientific survey data, to ultimately improve the understanding of the spatio-temporal abundance dynamics of marine harvested species. This framework served, in fact, as the main basis for all other MSPTOOLS work packages. The second summary presents preliminary results to an economic extension that was included in the proposed framework where there was made coupling of a Data Development Analysis (DEA) to the LGNB model in order to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the commercial fisheries and scientific survey, with respect to their sampling size and accuracy in estimating abundance trends. Detailed results of this summary are reported in Rufener et al. (In Prep.1). The third summary provides the methodology and outline of the coupling process between the LGNB and the bio-economic management strategy evaluation tool DISPLACE. This, furthermore, includes a critical commenting on the main hurdles encountered in this process, and how this will be used to investigate the actual benefit of the coupled LGNB-DISPLACE framework within a set of hypothetical management scenarios. Further results of this summary are stated in Rufener et al. (In Prep.2). The fourth summary presents the dissemination of the second and third MSPTOOLS working tasks at the annual ICES Working Group on Spatial Fisheries Data (ICES WGSFD) meeting, and how the working group could benefit from the LGNB-DISPLACE framework. Finally, the fifth summary presents an initial pilot study under the MSPTOOLS project to combine fishery-independent research survey information on catch rates as well as commercial fishery catch and effort information from the targeted Danish Norway pout fishery in integrated analyses with very high spatial resolution to evaluate spatial fisheries management measures in form of a specific fishing closure. The results of this summary is published in ICES Journal of Marine Science (Bigné et al. 2019). The model improvements provided by the project has a high impact and news-value to both the current and future advisory and scientific stock evaluation development work within the scientific and management advisory communities under the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES). As such the models, their improvements and their implementation provides significant new fisheries and marine spatial management scientific knowledge, as well as improved management advisory methods, directly to and relevant also for the Danish fisheries industry and all stakeholders within the fisheries sector besides the ICES communities. The MSPTOOLS work has to high extent been targeted towards model application and implementation of the methodological developments made under the project through the ICES management advisory system and community, as well as the ICES scientific community and network. The project has as such contributed significantly to a row of ICES methodological development working groups such ICES WGSFD, ICES WGFBIT, ICES WKTRADE2 and ICES WGECON, as well as provided contributions to major ICES assessment working groups such the ICES WGNSSK with published pilot studies. Under those ICES working groups, the method developments under the MSPTOOLS project have been directly presented, evaluated and discussed among other through direct project (financed) participation in those working groups. This has also included provision of specific recommendations regarding future data calls, methodological further developments and directions, application to management advice, as well as management strategies in general under ICES according to important stocks, habitats and fisheries (among other for Danish fishery). Furthermore, the implementation of the models have been affiliated further through MSPTOOLS contributions to other EU projects covering the EU-COFASP ECOAST and EU-HELCOM ACTION projects, and not least conducting a full PhD Study co-financed between MSPTOOLS (1 year), EU-COFASP ECOAST (1 year) and a DTU Aqua internal PhD project (1 year) on further development of statistical models for coupling of commercial fishery and research survey data to describe fish stock distribution and abundance surfaces, as well as further development of a bio-economic fisheries model, in order to link the two models. This has involved direct cooperation between those projects and several contributions from the MSPTOOLS project to those projects with input to methodological reviews and improved methods. As such, the MSPTOOLS project has also been further implemented and disseminated through the international expert networks working under these international research projects, as well as implementation of the model developments under MSPTOOLS in the work conducted under those research projects. There has been conducted three project workshops held in cooperation between the EMFF MSPTOOLS and EMFF ManDaLiS projects. One of the workshops was international and was held in association with and just after an International Conference Special Session: IIFET Conference, Seattle, USA, July 2018, (IIFET 2018 International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, https://www.xcdsystem.com/iifet/website/). This Special Open Session was directly arranged by the MSPTOOLS and ManDaLiS Projects with invitation of stakeholders and including stakeholder perspectives. Besides initiative taking, planning, arranging, organizing, coordinating, announcing, leading and carrying through this special session directly under the MSPTOOLS and ManDaLiS Projects the projects produced the session abstract and a full scientific publication reporting of the outcomes of the session (Nielsen et al., 2018): In accordance with several of the stakeholder perspectives and suggestions from the above workshops and the IIFET session there has directly in relation to the MSPTOOLS project been produced a follow up research project proposal and application (NORDFO) submitted to the EMFF project call in spring 2019. This project proposal has had a positive evaluation and is for the time being placed as number one at the waiting list for funding under the EMFF in 2019 for which final decision is pending.

The Danish government and cattle industry instituted a Salmonella surveillance program in October 2002 to help reduce Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Dublin (S. Dublin) infections. All dairy herds are tested by measuring antibodies in bulk tank milk at 3-month intervals. The program is based on a well-established ELISA, but the overall test program accuracy and misclassification was not previously investigated. We developed a model to simulate repeated bulk tank milk antibody measurements for dairy herds conditional on true infection status. The distributions of bulk tank milk antibody measurements for infected and noninfected herds were determined from field study data. Herd infection was defined as having either >or=1 Salmonella culture-positive fecal sample or >or=5% within-herd prevalence based on antibody measurements in serum or milk from individual animals. No distinction was made between Dublin and other Salmonella serotypes which cross-react in the ELISA. The simulation model was used to estimate the accuracy of herd classification for true herd-level prevalence values ranging from 0.02 to 0.5. Test program sensitivity was 0.95 across the range of prevalence values evaluated. Specificity was inversely related to prevalence and ranged from 0.83 to 0.98. For a true herd-level infection prevalence of 15%, the estimate for specificity (Sp) was 0.96. Also at the 15% herd-level prevalence, approximately 99% of herds classified as negative in the program would be truly noninfected and 80% of herds classified as positive would be infected. The predictive values were consistent with the primary goal of the surveillance program which was to have confidence that herds classified negative would be free of Salmonella infection

Volume 5 of Critical Perspectives in International Public Sector Management is comprised of three parts. The need for experimental learning in public management development, experimental learning formats and innovative teaching and transfer and value creation.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic (AB) consumption in production animals has a high awareness among politicians and consumers due to the risk of selection for AB resistance among potentially zoonotic bacteria. However, AB treatment of animals is at times necessary to treat diseases and ensure the wellbeing of the animals we take into our care. Raised without antibiotics (RWA) is a concept where pigs are individually ear-tagged for tracking, and if pigs are AB treated, they lose their RWA status. At slaughter, the farmer receives an additional price for non-AB treated pigs. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for AB treatment and to investigate growth performance of pigs in two Danish RWA herds. RESULTS: A total of 518 pigs in herd A and 436 pigs in herd B, were individually ear-tagged and subjected to weekly investigations of AB treatment status from birth to 12 weeks of age. Bodyweight was recorded at birth, 2, 4 and 12 weeks of age. The results showed, that at 12 weeks of age, 82 of 518 liveborn pigs were AB treated in herd A and 31 of 436 liveborn pigs were AB treated in herd B. Individual pigs that required AB treatment had a reduced average daily gain from day 0 to 28 in both herds (herd A, P < 0.001; herd B, P = 0.062) and from day 0 to 84 in herd A (P < 0.001). Additionally, significant risk factors for AB treatment were identified as a low bodyweight in herd A, whereas barrows and litters with less than 19 piglets were the main risk factors in herd B. CONCLUSION: The results suggests that in order to reduce AB treatments particular attention should be addressed to smaller pigs and barrows in RWA herds. In these two Danish RWA herds from this study it was possible for 64 and 68% pigs to reach 12 weeks of life without any AB treatments. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40813-021-00198-y.

Background: Antibiotic (AB) consumption in production animals has a high awareness among politicians and consumers due to the risk of selection for AB resistance among potentially zoonotic bacteria. However, AB treatment of animals is at times necessary to treat diseases and ensure the wellbeing of the animals we take into our care. Raised without antibiotics (RWA) is a concept where pigs are individually ear-tagged for tracking, and if pigs are AB treated, they lose their RWA status. At slaughter, the farmer receives an additional price for non-AB treated pigs. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for AB treatment and to investigate growth performance of pigs in two Danish RWA herds. Results: A total of 518 pigs in herd A and 436 pigs in herd B, were individually ear-tagged and subjected to weekly investigations of AB treatment status from birth to 12 weeks of age. Bodyweight was recorded at birth, 2, 4 and 12 weeks of age. The results showed, that at 12 weeks of age, 82 of 518 liveborn pigs were AB treated in herd A and 31 of 436 liveborn pigs were AB treated in herd B. Individual pigs that required AB treatment had a reduced average daily gain from day 0 to 28 in both herds (herd A, P < 0.001; herd B, P = 0.062) and from day 0 to 84 in herd A (P < 0.001). Additionally, significant risk factors for AB treatment were identified as a low bodyweight in herd A, whereas barrows and litters with less than 19 piglets were the main risk factors in herd B. Conclusion: The results suggests that in order to reduce AB treatments particular attention should be addressed to smaller pigs and barrows in RWA herds. In these two Danish RWA herds from this study it was possible for 64 and 68% pigs to reach 12 weeks of life without any AB treatments.

A substantial proportion of EU's fish stocks lack a quantitative assessment and are therefore regarded as data-limited. The goal of the present project and report, i.e. to provide and improve quantitative assessments of data-limited stocks, is therefore a prerequisite to the implementation of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and to promote sustainable fisheries. Specifically, the project and report addresses Article 2 of the CFP stating that the objective is to achieve exploitation levels that restore and maintain populations above levels which can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). This cannot be achieved without quantitative assessments. Furthermore, as a result of the landing obligation (CFP article 15) data-limited stocks acting as "choke-species" in mixed fisheries have a significant risk of limiting the fishery of high-value stocks. Obtaining quantitative assessments and fleet-specific fishing mortalities as further developed in this project is a necessary step toward mitigating the impact of choke-species and improving management of such fisheries. By improving knowledge about data-limited fish stocks, the project minimises the risk of yield reductions that result from an increased precautionary buffer applied when quantitative stock assessments are lacking. Similarly, the risk of overexploitation is minimised with the aim to prevent a subsequent potential long-term stock rebuilding period with reduction in quotas. The specific objectives of the project is to develop and implement further newly developed statistical methods by DTU Aqua for assessment and management strategy evaluation of data limited stocks in relation to MSY (Maximum Sustainable Yield) - with focus on broad accessibility and implementation – benefitting Danish, European and global fisheries. Furthermore, the aim is to improve the management basis for 4-6 data limited fish stocks with special importance for Danish fishery and which are managed conservatively because of limited available information. The specific stocks are selected in consultancy with stakeholders. The project has involved close collaboration with and feed-back from stakeholders within fisheries and management to ensure that the stocks selected as case studies are the most relevant to management and the fisheries industry. The project provides quantitative knowledge and new assessments regarding more than the 4-6 Danish data-limited fish stocks that the project was originally aiming for by project start. This knowledge is not only new, but has also been necessary to enable implementation of sustainable management for the stocks. Furthermore, the project has created the foundation for analytical assessments of these stocks and not least further development of the statistical assessment and forecast models. The sustainable management of fisheries demands the quantitative assessment of fisheries resources and exploitation patterns. However, underlying ecological and mathematical models are often a simplified representation of natural systems and are particularly challenged if available data is limited in quantity or quality. Therefore, it is important to not only understand underlying model assumptions, but also to quantify and account for associated assessment uncertainty. ManDaLiS has assessed several data-limited stocks with high relevance for the Danish fishery and evaluated existing and developed new data-limited assessment methods and management strategies. The focus has been on length-based assessment methods and biomass dynamic models, which are two important suits of methods for the assessment of data-limited stocks. The performance comparison of different length-based assessment methods under various recruitment and exploitation scenarios revealed strengths and shortcomings of the various methods and provides important guidance on model selection for stock assessors and managers. A novel approach to length-based stock assessment allows the quantification of assessment uncertainty and adds a new method to the stock assessment toolbox. The modification of the stochastic production model in continuous time (SPiCT) allows modelling time-variant productivity changes or regime shifts by a time-variant parameter for the intrinsic population growth rate. ManDaLiS has improved existing management strategies by incorporating stochastic harvest control rules which allow adjusting management advice (e.g. the total allowable catch (TAC)) as a function of assessment uncertainty. This approach is in line with the precautionary principle and reduces the TAC if the stock status is uncertain. The methodological developments achieved within the scope of ManDaLiS shed light on the trade-offs of different data-limited assessment methods and provide new assessment methods and management strategies. Most importantly, these developments allow the quantification and consideration of assessment uncertainty and thus, contribute to a sustainable management of fisheries. The landing obligation has drastically increased the importance of data-limited stocks as a result of the "choke-species" phenomenon. The DTU Aqua model used (SPiCT) has been upgraded to an ICES (International Council for Exploration of the Sea) standard assessment model for data poor stocks not least due to input from the current project. Furthermore, the novelty of the model improvements provided by the project has had a high impact to both the current and future advisory and scientific assessment development work within ICES. The case studies and model implementations have very much covered a large number of fish stocks that are important to Danish fishery. As such the models, their improvements and their implementation provide advice directly to and relevant for the Danish fisheries industry and all stakeholders within the fisheries sector. The results and methodological developments of the project are disseminated through four scientific manuscripts, whereof one is published, one accepted, and two are pending submission for publication, and through scientific conference presentations as well as summarised in several ICES working group reports (e.g. ICES WKLIFE VI-VIII, ICES WGNSSK, ICES WGBFAS, ICES WKMSYCat34, ICES WKPROXY, ICES WGECON). Project participants attended these working groups to make specific recommendations regarding future data calls, methodological directions, and assessment, advice and management strategies in general and for several stocks including stocks where a robust assessment cannot be provided. Furthermore, the implementation of the models have been affiliated further through ManDaLiS contributions to other EU projects covering the EU-Tender DRUMFISH, EU-Tender PROBYFISH, EU Tender EFICA, and EU-H2020-MEESO, and not least conducting a full PhD Study cofinanced between ManDaLiS (2 years) and a DTU Aqua internal PhD project (1 year) with input to stock assessments, methodological reviews and improved assessment methods. As such, the ManDaLiS project has also been further implemented and disseminated through the cooperation in international expert networks working under these international research projects, as well as implementation of the model developments under ManDaLiS in the assessments conducted under those research projects. There has been conducted three project workshops held in cooperation between the EMFF ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS projects. One of the workshops was international and was held in association with and just after an International Conference Special Session: IIFET Conference, Seattle, USA, July 2018, (IIFET 2018 International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, https://www.xcdsystem.com/iifet/website/). This Special Open Session was directly arranged by the ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS projects with invitation of stakeholders and including stakeholder perspectives. Besides initiative taking, planning, arranging, organizing, coordinating, announcing, leading and carrying through this special session directly under the MSPTOOLS and ManDaLiS Projects the projects produced the session abstract and a full scientific publication reporting of the outcomes of the session (Nielsen et al., 2018). In accordance with several of the stakeholder perspectives from the above workshops and the IIFET session future perspectives and needs raised by the stakeholders during the ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS workshops included suggestions for continuation of the implementation of the data poor stock assessments and model developments on additional candidate stocks with importance for Danish fishery.